Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• Thai Life Insurance (124744Z TB) has started to meet investors ahead of its $1 billion IPO. The roadshow will run till early July with a listing targeted later in July.
• Thai Life is the third-largest life insurer in Thailand with a 12.9% market share as measured by gross premium income in 1Q22.
• The key elements of the bull case rest on a strong brand, the largest agent network, return to APE growth, high persistency ratio and improving VONB margin.

• Î will discuss the issues on the Nikkei article, that reports Japan’s labor productivity is the lowest among the G7 countries, and that the “engagement.”
• I believe that the lack of wage increases for Japanese workers may not be linked to their enthusiasm for their jobs, showing the OECD data on average annual wages.
• Conversely, given wages that are lower wages, well-developed social infrastructure, and a workforce capable of producing a high-quality product, some managers would want to take advantage of this business environment.

• Thai Life Insurance (124744Z TB) is looking to raise US$1bn in its IPO by selling up to 2.207bn shares. This will value the company at around US$5.18bn.
• Inclusion in the SET50 INDEX will depend on the float exceeding 20% and a rally that leads to its market cap exceeding 1% of the SET INDEX market cap.
• Fast Entry to the MSCI Thailand and FTSE All-World indices is not likely. MSCI inclusion could take place at the November SAIR and FTSE inclusion at the December QIR.

• A better way to think of the Hong Kong Market in the current cycle is that it has both US & China’s economic headwinds and requires sharply lower rates and currency to correct macro imbalances.
• HKMA should be cutting interest rates, but it cannot do so due to the currency peg.
• Over the last 12-18 months, Hong Kong developers have enjoyed stability in expectations of reopening borders, investment demand, strong balance sheet compared to mainland developers, and low funding costs (HIBOR). These tailwinds are now headwinds.

• Nifty short bet from 16,750 is panning out. Gap lower and downside impulse calls for further weakness.
• India remains vulnerable to spill over from the global cycle after holding up over recent months. Any break below lower wedge line support would be a bigger negative structurally.
• Watch for bounce just under 15k near lower wedge support w RSI near 25. 15,800 fresh sell resistance stands out.

• U/G to HOLD
• Back to pre-pandemic levels
• Risk and buffer
• Maintaining forecasts

Bursa’s current share price reflects MYR2.5b equity ADV, ceteris paribus, using mean valuation. This is in-line with our 2022 ADV forecast and its pre-pandemic ADV levels. Interest rate normalisation is a down-side risk but this could be buffered by higher trading activities amid an early general election. We make no change to our earnings forecasts but upgrade our call to HOLD; potential total return is now +3.9% (including 4.2% DY). Our TP is unchanged at MYR6.38.