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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief China: Leapmotor, CALB, Pine Care Group, Jenscare Scientific, Tianqi Lithium, Wuxi Biologics, Agile Property Holdings, Lepu Scientech Medical Technology (Shanghai) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Leapmotor (9863 HK) IPO – Stock Connect & Index Flows Could Provide Some Support
  • CALB IPO – Low-End Appears Reasonable but Will Still Need Some Charging Support
  • Pine Care Group (1989 HK): Chinachem Takeover Offers a Good Exit Opportunity for Investors
  • Jenscare (健世科技) IPO: Candidate for Shorts
  • CALB IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (22 September 2022)
  • Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (23 September 2022)
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 23 September 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 23 September 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Lepu Scientech Medical Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Leapmotor (9863 HK) IPO – Stock Connect & Index Flows Could Provide Some Support

By Brian Freitas

  • Leapmotor (9863 HK) is looking to raise between US$800m-US$1.03bn by selling 130.82m shares at a price range of HK$48-62/share. Between 30-39% of the shares will be taken by cornerstone investors.
  • The continued slide in its closest peers could put pressure on the stock post listing, though there could be some passive buying in December.
  • Leapmotor (9863 HK) could be added to the HSCI and Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December. Stock Connect could come online in December too.

CALB IPO – Low-End Appears Reasonable but Will Still Need Some Charging Support

By Sumeet Singh

  • CALB aims to raise up to US$1.7bn in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • CALB undertakes design, R&D, production and sales of EV batteries and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) products.
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about IPO pricing.

Pine Care Group (1989 HK): Chinachem Takeover Offers a Good Exit Opportunity for Investors

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hong Kong’s leading property developer, Chinachem Group agreed to acquire a 56.15% stake in Pine Care Group (1989 HK) for HKD451.2 million ($57.5 million) from its controlling shareholders.
  • Post-Acquisition, Chinachem will launch an unconditional mandatory offer for the remaining shares, which it does not hold at HKD0.89 per share, same as the purchase price.
  • Considering delisting risk, limited upside potential of the shares after a huge run-up, and muted growth outlook of the company, investors should tender their holdings.  

Jenscare (健世科技) IPO: Candidate for Shorts

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Jenscare is a China-based medical device company with a focus on structural heart disease. The company launched a deal to  raise up to USD 30m via a Hong Kong listing.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s product lines and provided a brief overview on the company’s valuation.
  • In this note, we provide an update for the book building. We provide our quick thoughts on the valuation and deal dynamics.

CALB IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • CALB (3931 HK) is getting ready to complete its IPO in early October in Hong Kong. The IPO price range is between HK$38 and HK$51 per share.
  • Based on our valuation sensitivity analysis, our base case valuation of CALB is HK$53 per share, which is 20% higher than the mid-point of the IPO price range.
  • CALB has a rare combination of surging sales growth rate, operating profitability, and increasing market share in the EV battery market globally.

Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (22 September 2022)

By David Blennerhassett


Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (23 September 2022)

By David Blennerhassett

  • Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Shanghai and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.
  • Overall, the net inflow over the past week was ~US$1.1bn, split (+US$0.8bn) for Shanghai and (+US$0.3bn) for Shenzhen.
  • The largest inflows were into Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) and Tencent (700 HK). The largest outflows were in Geely Auto (175 HK) and HKEX (388 HK).

Chinese Property Weekly – 23 September 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Chinese Property Weekly – 23 September 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Lepu Scientech Medical Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Lepu Scientech Medical Technology (Shanghai) (LSM HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC. 
  • Lepu Scientech Medical Technology (LSMT) is an interventional medical device provider in China for congential heart disease (CHD).
  • It is the largest manufacturer of CHD occluder products and related procedural accessories in China, according to Frost & Sullivan.

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Daily Brief Japan: Softbank Group, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Hamamatsu Photonics Kk and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Softbank – So The Arm IPO Isn’t Looking All That Hot Then?
  • Shareholder Returns Offered by Companies that Do Not Meet Prime Market Listing Criteria Are…..
  • Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Difficult Year Ahead

Softbank – So The Arm IPO Isn’t Looking All That Hot Then?

By Mio Kato

  • Apparently prospects for a high valuation on a potential Arm IPO are so staggeringly, AI-rifically good that Masayoshi Son is now sounding out Samsung on a strategic partnership. 
  • Samsung itself has not been having the greatest time of late with Micron and SK Hynix making serious inroads against its prior technological leadership in memory.
  • So as desperate and desperate-er ponder an alliance we can only be thoroughly convinced that this move absolutely, positively has nooooothing to do with trying to prop up share prices.

Shareholder Returns Offered by Companies that Do Not Meet Prime Market Listing Criteria Are…..

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The current criteria of 10 billion-yen in tradable market capitalization is too small by definition of prime market, “market-cap suitable for institutional investors,” and should be reviewed in near future.
  • It’s natural that there will be difference in the stock prices of companies that can show results that are in line with their disclosed plans and those that are not.
  • Simply raising shareholder returns won’t, in theory, positively impact on stock price. Mere increased shareholder returns would be seen as sign that the company reached the end of its rope.

Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Difficult Year Ahead

By Scott Foster

  • FY Sep-22 results are likely to beat management’s guidance, but this should be in the price. Recession and rising interest rates are probably not in the price.
  • Growth rates slowed in 3Q and are likely to decline further in 4Q. In the year ahead, we expect both sales and profits to decline.
  • The shares have rebounded by 21% since the 1st of July to 30x our EPS estimate for FY Sep-23. This does not look sustainable. Sell into current strength. 

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Daily Brief Macro: UK: Winding Taxes Back and Deficits Up and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • UK: Winding Taxes Back and Deficits Up

UK: Winding Taxes Back and Deficits Up

By Phil Rush

  • The UK government is delivering the tax cuts pledged by Liz Truss during her leadership campaign and more. Tax hikes are broadly reversing while spending is maintained.
  • New policy decisions cost about £40bn a year, plus £60bn for the energy price guarantee in year one. Stimulus from a stamp duty cut leans against the BoE’s rate hikes.
  • Measures may not survive the next general election. The risk of another reversal lessens their impact on incentives. A lack of proper scrutiny also doesn’t help confidence.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Asia Top Short Update and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Top Short Update
  • RTY Support Inflection Break
  • Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Asia Top Short Update

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our top short bets in Asia (HSI, Taiwan, Korea) show risk of breaking to new lows. The RTY breaks gives the bear trade another leg down.
  • Our relative perform longs (STI and SET 50) are due to drift to support but holding up well. USD is breaking to new highs with momentum.
  • Asian markets that have held up are now at risk of late-stage capitulation – ASX, Nifty and NKY.

RTY Support Inflection Break

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Fed bounce used to add to NDX short at 12,100. RTY break below 1,775 is the more damning inflection pivot to see bear momentum accelerate in our short group.
  • RTY below 1,775 targets 1,710 and 1,690. NDX increased bear pressure to crack 11,500/400 support and reach for that key 11k macro support level.
  • SPX 3,750 pressure test. RTY implies we crack 3,750 and reach for the June low. 3,500 is our new low PT then bull probe in late September/early October.

Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

By Joe Jasper

  • Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX
  • Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one — Brazil.
  • Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Smartkarma Webinar | HR Tech Investment Opportunities and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Webinar | HR Tech Investment Opportunities
  • Distressed Chinese Developers Scramble for a Piece of $28.5 Billion Industry Bailout
  • European Demand for Chinese Solar Panels Soars as Russia Withholds Natural Gas
  • Japan Telecoms – Agreement on Telecom Patent Fees Also Good for DoCoMo, KDDI

Smartkarma Webinar | HR Tech Investment Opportunities

By Smartkarma Research

In our next Webinar, we welcome Analyst Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA , who will take us through the landscape of HR Tech and its investment opportunities.

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 28 September 2022, 17:00 SGT/HKT.

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA, is a chartered management accountant with more than 10 years of rich experience in investment research and financial analysis. She has worked as an equity analyst for one of the world’s largest asset managers with USD2.5 trillion in AUM covering numerous sectors including chemicals, retail, tech, autos, telco, real-estate and banks, globally. She is experienced in fundamental equity research, industry research, commodity studies, forensic accounting, and due diligence reviews.


Distressed Chinese Developers Scramble for a Piece of $28.5 Billion Industry Bailout

By Caixin Global

  • China’s distressed property firms are scrambling for a share of a 200 billion yuan ($28.5 billion) government loan program
  • The loan program planned by the central government aims to help developers resume construction of apartments that have already been bought but are unfinished due to an industrywide shortage of funds
  • Developers have this month been urging their regional branches to file loan applications as soon as possible and local authorities are conducting audits to select the first batch of projects to finance

European Demand for Chinese Solar Panels Soars as Russia Withholds Natural Gas

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese exports of solar panels to Europe have surged this year as countries hunt for alternative energy sources to fill the gap left by Russian natural gas.
  • In the first seven months of 2022, China shipped photovoltaic (PV) modules with a combined capacity of 51.5 gigawatts to Europe, 25.9% more than the whole of last year
  • China is the world’s largest supplier of photovoltaic products and the trade with Europe, including non-European Union countries

Japan Telecoms – Agreement on Telecom Patent Fees Also Good for DoCoMo, KDDI

By Kirk Boodry

  • Japanese auto makers have agreed to pay patent fees for mobile technology in connected cars, a win for equipment vendors
  • It is also positive for NTT’s DoCoMo, which is a global leader in network technology R&D (fourth overall and largest in Japan) despite being a network operator
  • KDDI also benefits as it already generates meaningful IoT revenue supported in part by automobile connectivity

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Daily Brief Crypto: Polygon(MATIC) Partnership with Starbucks and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Polygon(MATIC) Partnership with Starbucks, a Further Step in Polygon’s Institution-Focused Strategy
  • Hong Kong to Start Trial of E-HKD in Fourth Quarter
  • Cosmos: The Ecosystem of Blockchains

Polygon(MATIC) Partnership with Starbucks, a Further Step in Polygon’s Institution-Focused Strategy

By Edward Wu

  • Polygon Technology provides Ethereum scaling solutions and actively develops institution clients including Starbuck, E&Y, Meta, Reddit, Disney, etc.
  • By end of 2022, all MATIC tokens, except reserved for staking rewards, will be unlocked,  the aggressive unlocking schedule of MATIC token will no longer be a problem.
  • If viewing Polygon as a tech start-up, it has outstanding performance metircs, however, it is criticized for transparency and centralization problems from a crypto-native standpoint.

Hong Kong to Start Trial of E-HKD in Fourth Quarter

By Caixin Global

  • Hong Kong laid out an ambitious plan to develop its own retail central bank digital currency (CBDC), the e-HKD, and will start a pilot in the fourth quarter
  • The e-HKD is not to replace Hong Kong dollar bills, which will remain legal tender, but to provide a new payment method for citizens
  • Issuance of the Hong Kong digital currency for retail use is expected to play an important role in the economy and have a broad interface with the public

Cosmos: The Ecosystem of Blockchains

By Kaiko

  • If blockchain technology is to gain widespread adoption, interoperability between blockchains is a necessity.
  • We’ve seen bridges try and solve this issue, essentially sitting on a pool of different assets and offering their own guarantee that an asset can be bridged over to another chain.
  • However, bridges have been the target of several hacks this year, such as the $615m hack of Ronin, or the $320m hack of Wormhole. 

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: LG Energy Flow Crunch with Additional Passives: K200/MSCI Up-Weight & LIT Inclusion and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • LG Energy Flow Crunch with Additional Passives: K200/MSCI Up-Weight & LIT Inclusion
  • S&P/​​​​​​ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Couple of High-Impact Intra-Review Changes Possible
  • Kito (6409) – KKR/Crosby Takeover Launches – High Premium in Weak Year, But Still Light to Value
  • Sands China (1928 HK): Positives And Negatives
  • Softbank Seeking A “Strategic Alliance” Between Samsung Electronics and ARM?
  • EQD | ASX200(AS51 Index): Fundamentals Strong but Hedge Long with Options Whilst Asian Risks Persist
  • Schneider Electric/Aveva: Recommended Minorities Buyout
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings: 22nd Sept – Pharmaron Beijing, Joinn Labs, Glory Sun Financial

LG Energy Flow Crunch with Additional Passives: K200/MSCI Up-Weight & LIT Inclusion

By Sanghyun Park

  • LG Energy’s locked shares approach 96-97% of SO. Now, we will see an additional passive flow equivalent to another 1% of SO: KOSPI 200/MSCI Standard up-weights and LIT inclusion.
  • Each passive impact is also substantial. The MSCI up-weight alone will cause an impact equivalent to 2.44x ADTV. It would be 2.20x for the KOSPI 200 and 1.03x for LIT.
  • For the KOSPI 200 December review, the event-driven flow will likely focus on up-weights, including LG Energy. For LIT, we should consider an aggressive LONG/SHORT with LG Chem.

S&P/​​​​​​ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Couple of High-Impact Intra-Review Changes Possible

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for S&P ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2022 Rebalance.
  • Tassal (TGR AU)  and Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU) could get deleted from ASX200 before the December Rebalance, triggering high-impact intra-review additions. There should be two changes in the Review itself.
  • Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) is close to becoming an ASX 50 ADD and Lendlease Group (LLC AU) is close to becoming an ASX 50 DEL in the December 2022 review.

Kito (6409) – KKR/Crosby Takeover Launches – High Premium in Weak Year, But Still Light to Value

By Travis Lundy

  • KKR-Owned Crosby got SAMR approval to buy Kito Corporation (6409 JP) several days ago apparently and has launched its deal. It will be a 21-day tender. Very quick.
  • It was a strong premium, but still a light price, at announcement. And that was when USD/yen was lower. Since then, earnings and forecasts are way up. But price unchanged.
  • What looked like a likely candidate for bump agitation has seen none (that I am aware of) so this is pretty straightforward.

Sands China (1928 HK): Positives And Negatives

By David Blennerhassett

  • Macau gaming companies gained this week as Hong Kong is expected to ease Covid restrictions, with Macau expected to follow suit.
  • Last week, the six incumbent Macau gaming operators submitted tenders for the gaming concessions, together with last-minute interloper, the Genting Group.
  • Sands China (1928 HK) has borrowed heavily and also leads other Macau gaming plays in dividends paid out to shareholders. This may not be lost on Macau officials. 

Softbank Seeking A “Strategic Alliance” Between Samsung Electronics and ARM?

By Douglas Kim

  • Softbank’s Masayoshi Son is seeking a “strategic alliance” between Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and ARM.
  • Masayoshi Son plans to visit South Korea next month to meet with Samsung’s Lee Jae-Yong to discuss a potential strategic alliance between Samsung and ARM. 
  • Although the exact details of the investment stake in ARM remain uncertain, the probabilities are rising that Samsung could spend billions of dollars to buy a minority stake in ARM

EQD | ASX200(AS51 Index): Fundamentals Strong but Hedge Long with Options Whilst Asian Risks Persist

By Simon Harris

  • Australia’s economy is robust and will benefit from long term Asian Growth
  • Short-Term risks are increasing and ASX200 will not be immune
  • Hedge longs using short term options to avoid any short-term turbulence

Schneider Electric/Aveva: Recommended Minorities Buyout

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Schneider has agreed a 3,100p (+13p interim) cash offer for the remaining 40.86% of AVEVA (41% premium, 26.7x EV/Fwd EBIT, 30.5x Fwd P/E), which some dub opportunistic.
  • The offer price is in line with average multiples for the last 5Y, and there’s execution risk in the model transition of AVEVA, but riches may lie ahead. 
  • Gross spread is +0.8% (+interim), the market expects a sweetening (no large shareholder has irrevocably undertaken to tender); the daily average GBP volume since 23 August has been c.£62 million.

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings: 22nd Sept – Pharmaron Beijing, Joinn Labs, Glory Sun Financial

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website. 
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. 
  • These insights may also flag those companies where shares have been pledged. Stocks mentioned include Pharmaron Beijing (3759 HK), Joinn Laboratories (H) (6127 HK), and Glory Sun Financial Group (1282 HK).

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Daily Brief ECM: CALB IPO: Valuation Insights and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • CALB IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Porsche IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Socionext Pre-IPO Valuation – Thoughts on Valuation
  • Leapmotor IPO: Forecasts and Valuation
  • Growatt Technology IPO: The Bull Case
  • Edianyun Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Pre-IPO Laekna – Low Cost Performance of License-In Mode Leads to A “Rethink” Of Investment Value

CALB IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


Porsche IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Porsche is EV of 83.6 billion EUR, implied market cap of 88.9 billion EUR, and target base case price target of 98 EUR per share. 
  • This represents 23% higher than the mid-point of the IPO price range. Given the relative solid upside, we have a Positive View of the Porsche IPO. 
  • The market related risk is clearly the biggest risk for the Porsche IPO right now in our view. 

Socionext Pre-IPO Valuation – Thoughts on Valuation

By Clarence Chu

  • Socionext (6526 JP) is looking to raise up to US$285m in its Japan IPO.  
  • As stated in our earlier notes, Socionext has been growing its number of design wins per year historically, which should aid to its near/medium term sales and profitability.
  • In our previous note, we undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

Leapmotor IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Leapmotor (2007699D HK)  is a leading smart EV company in China. The company plans to raise net proceeds of US$904m through its HKEx IPO.
  • In our previous insight Leapmotor IPO: Stuck in the Middle , we concluded that the company will have to compromise on margins to grow its top line.
  • Our valuation analysis suggests that Leapmotor’s shares are not even attractive at the lower-end of the IPO price range and the premium vs local peers is hard to justify.

Growatt Technology IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Growatt Technology (1833969D CH), a leading PV inverters manufacturer, will seek a listing hearing for a US$1 billion HKEx IPO in October, according to press reports.
  • According to Frost & Sullivan, in 2021, Growatt was the third-largest player in the global PV inverter market with a 6.8% market share in shipments. 
  • The key elements of the bull case rest on a large market, improving sector market sentiment, and sector-leading revenue growth and profitability.

Edianyun Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Edianyun (1480259D CH) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC. 
  • Edianyun is an office IT integrated solution provider in China, providing one-stop office IT services on a subscription basis to enterprise customers consisting mainly of SMEs. 
  • As of 30th Jun 2022 (6M22), it had approximately 39,525 subscribing customers and 1.1m devices under subscription.

Pre-IPO Laekna – Low Cost Performance of License-In Mode Leads to A “Rethink” Of Investment Value

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Laekna’s development mode is mainly based on license-in. However, the increasingly low cost performance of in-licensed products and potential legal risks have made the capital “reconsider”. 
  • Both two core products LAE002 and LAE001 have to face the challenge of market acceptance and potential R&D failure risks. China’s NRDL negotiation further casts doubts on their commercialization prospects.
  • So, the investment in Laekna may not generate expected return. Together with the unfriendly external environment, we are conservative about Laekna (LAEKNA HK)’s outlook at the current stage.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Elan Microelectronics: Index Removal Ending and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Elan Microelectronics: Index Removal Ending, Cash Rich for Buybacks or Acquisitions
  • Tao Heung (573 HK): Bon Appetit
  • Wynn Macau Ltd: Trading Below Many Peers Which Are Moving up Facing the Same Headwinds
  • AptaBio Therapeutics (293780 KS): Near-Term Cash Crunch Is Clouding Promising Prospects of Pipeline

Elan Microelectronics: Index Removal Ending, Cash Rich for Buybacks or Acquisitions

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Elan’s index removal has resulted in a spike in volume, however the removal selling should be abating.
  • The company remains in a very strong position with a large cash warchest and additional cash to be generated even in a down-cycle.
  • The company should buyback shares in our view, as it did in 2021. Industry weakness also presents acquisition opportunities.

Tao Heung (573 HK): Bon Appetit

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Tao Heung (573 HK), a Chinese cuisine restaurant operator, has lost significant shop-days in 1H22 due to the pandemic. However, this is behind us and 2H22 outlook is better.
  • The recovery of Hong Kong operations will be supported by further relaxation of social distancing measures while, for mainland China, business has rebounded following removal of lockdowns.   
  • Its Chairman has upped his stake, signaling a vote of confidence. The stock’s valuations are not expensive, but given low turnover, there will be potential share price volatility.

Wynn Macau Ltd: Trading Below Many Peers Which Are Moving up Facing the Same Headwinds

By Howard J Klein

  • Macau peer shares are higher largely due to bullish resolutions of long term uncertainties about re-licensing which have now been favorably resolved.
  • Some easing of Hong Kong hotel duration quarantines in general and specific to Wynn, the promotion of Ms. Linda Chen to Presidency will resonate favorably in Beijing.
  • Wynn’s two Macau properties well positioned to recapture leading share of premium mass customer segment. Not reflected in go forward share price.

AptaBio Therapeutics (293780 KS): Near-Term Cash Crunch Is Clouding Promising Prospects of Pipeline

By Tina Banerjee

  • AptaBio Therapeutics (293780 KS) announced positive topline data for European phase 2 clinical trial of its lead candidate, APX-115, which is being developed for the treatment of diabetic nephropathy.
  • Future progress of APX-115 in clinical trial will depend much on AptaBio’s capacity to enter a licensing deal for APX-115 with global pharmaceutical companies.
  • The company’s other pipeline drugs are also progressing, thereby keeping R&D expenditures at elevated level. However, the company’s current cash balance is not sufficient fund its R&D expenditures for long-term.

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Daily Brief Macro: Hang Seng Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng Index, Tencent, HSBC, HKEX, and Alibaba
  • Geopolitics Exacerbate Risks from Global Liquidity Contraction as Easy Money Legacies Loom Large
  • BoE: Calmed by Lower Inflation Peak
  • CX Daily: Why China’s Regulators Have Cough Medicine in Their Sights

Hang Seng Index, Tencent, HSBC, HKEX, and Alibaba

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • After last week’s Bear Porn note, this explains best the focus of the note.
  • We have a critical few weeks ahead of us as we open with a gap down on the index and many stocks on Thursday 22nd.
  • However, I think I will focus on just a few things that matter most, the four essential heavy weights and, last but not least, the long-term chart of the Hang Seng Index.

Geopolitics Exacerbate Risks from Global Liquidity Contraction as Easy Money Legacies Loom Large

By Said Desaque

  • Central banks are trying to catch up with the Fed, but the US dollar remains strong.  The Fed will not be swayed from its hawkish stance to restore price stability.
  • The restoration of normal supply chains since the pandemic has been severely hampered by the willingness of Western countries to embrace tariffs and sanctions to pursue geopolitical interests. 
  • Corporate bond issuers face higher funding costs due to quantitative tightening, but the ECB faces tougher challenges than the Fed in this realm of policy conduct. 

BoE: Calmed by Lower Inflation Peak

By Phil Rush

  • The BoE hiked by another 50bps to 2.25%, as economists (including us) expected, rather than the 75bps risk embedded in market pricing. Dissent split on both sides of this.
  • Further forthcoming fiscal stimulus will likely encourage the BoE to forcefully hike again in November before slowing as the 2yr inflation outlook rolls below the target.
  • Active gilt sales are beginning, but a hurdle to change outside of annual reviews means the programme is worryingly unresponsive to the economy’s requirements.

CX Daily: Why China’s Regulators Have Cough Medicine in Their Sights

By Caixin Global

  • Drugs / In Depth: Why China’s regulators have cough medicine in their sights

  • Corruption / Former justice minister given suspended death sentence

  • Yuan / China and Kazakhstan set up offshore yuan clearing


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