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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Sep 19
0

Daily Brief Singapore: Sembcorp Marine and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • FTSE Straits Times Index (STI): Quiddity Primer

FTSE Straits Times Index (STI): Quiddity Primer

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) (STI INDEX) consists of the 30 largest companies listed in the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX).
  • This is one of the well-known national blue-chip indices in the Asia-Pacific region.
  • In this insight, we will have a look at the selection criteria and the historical price performance of past Rebalance Events.

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Sep 19
0

Daily Brief South Korea: SK Telecom and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • 3Q Dividend Estimates of Those with SSF for Cash & Carry Arb in Korea

3Q Dividend Estimates of Those with SSF for Cash & Carry Arb in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • Juice for cash & carry arbitrage doesn’t seem like much. Several names in contango, but the basis widening isn’t at a sufficiently arb-tradable level.
  • Reverse cash & carry isn’t all that attractive either, but it certainly does offer more juice, even with borrow fees. Ssangyong C&E, SKT, Shinhan, and KB deserve our attention.
  • A bit uncertain is whether the pattern of “LONG Spot until ex-dividend and Conversion to Short” through cash & carry will repeat itself this time.

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Sep 19
0

Daily Brief United States: Russell 2000 Index, ROBLOX Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Watch RTY Trigger for NDX New Lows
  • Roblox Analyst Day Observations

Watch RTY Trigger for NDX New Lows

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Call to re cycle shorts at targets on September 12/13 and buy the USD at DXY 108 is paying off. Use an uptick early this week to add to shorts.
  • NDX remains our top US short but an inflection below RTY 1,775 pivot support will increase downside conviction for a hard NDX bear press to 11,500 and 11,000.
  • SPX 3,750 pressure test expected, if below will increase odds of a new low. Monitor DXY 111.25/50 for an early warning dollar top.

Roblox Analyst Day Observations

By Aaron Gabin

  • Roblox Analyst Day featured some interesting new initiatives around advertising and marketplace dynamics.
  • The company will launch a self serve advertising platform in 2023 that has the potential to be worth an incremental 20% of revenues and margin supportive.
  • The company is also allowing developers to start introducing scare items, and begin participating in the on-platform resale market.

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Sep 19
0

Daily Brief China: Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, Times Neighborhood, Onewo Space-Tech, Tencent, Road King Infrastructure and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, PCOMP, SET50, AMFI, ALX
  • Takeaways from the Times Neighborhood Investment Debacle
  • Onewo IPO: Valuation Insights
  • China Internet Weekly (19Sep2022): Tencent, NetEase, Meituan, Trip.com
  • Morning Views Asia: China Fortune Land, Fosun International, Road King Infrastructure

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, PCOMP, SET50, AMFI, ALX

By Brian Freitas

Takeaways from the Times Neighborhood Investment Debacle

By Sameer Taneja

  • Times Neighborhood (9928 HK) has been a disastrous call since we first highlighted it. In this insight, we reflect upon the red flags we could have done well to spot. 
  • We cover red flags ranging from the level of precise guidance, pivot in strategy, and the parent’s poor financial health, to the effect on receivables sucking cash from the company. 
  • Everyone makes mistakes (we are human, after all). We would like to share our experience to educate readers to become better investors and sidestep investments in such names.  

Onewo IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

China Internet Weekly (19Sep2022): Tencent, NetEase, Meituan, Trip.com

By Ming Lu

  • Tencent and NetEase received new licenses from the authorities more than a year.
  • Meituan’s car-hailing service joined Tencent WeChat’s traffic platform, Tencent Passenger Traffic.
  • Express parcels and their revenue continued to recover in August.

Morning Views Asia: China Fortune Land, Fosun International, Road King Infrastructure

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Sep 19
0

Most Read: Elan Microelectronics, Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, Frasers Hospitality Trust, Times Neighborhood, Onewo Space-Tech, Link Administration, SK Telecom and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Div+ Index Basket Trade Review – Time To Swing The Other Direction
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, PCOMP, SET50, AMFI, ALX
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Frasers Hospitality, Genting/Macau, United Tractor, Arb Shockers
  • Takeaways from the Times Neighborhood Investment Debacle
  • The Second Leg Down In This Bear Market May Be Happening Now?
  • Onewo IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Merger Arb Mondays (19 Sep) – Link Admin, Ramsay, Alliance, Genex, Moya, Singapore Medical, VNET
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Moya, Singapore Medical, Link Admin, Giordano,111 Inc, VNET
  • 3Q Dividend Estimates of Those with SSF for Cash & Carry Arb in Korea
  • That’s It Then As Link Admin Rejects D&D’s Revised Terms

Taiwan Div+ Index Basket Trade Review – Time To Swing The Other Direction

By Travis Lundy

  • In August, Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA published his leaderboard and flow estimates for the FTSE Taiwan Dividend+ Rebalance which starts today and runs through next Thursday.
  • Late in August, I recommended a basket trade. Since then, the BUY basket has outperformed the SELL basket by 7.6%. Set & Forget it is up 7.2%.
  • I provided timing in the basket trade. Now it is time to swing the other way. 

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, PCOMP, SET50, AMFI, ALX

By Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Frasers Hospitality, Genting/Macau, United Tractor, Arb Shockers

By David Blennerhassett

  • NTT (9432 JP) results were better than Softbank Corp’s and KDDI’s. The good “drift trade” may still be to be long NTT vs a basket of KDDI and Softbank Corp. 
  • The Frasers Hospitality (FHT SP) Scheme failed.  The non-vocal minority simply didn’t show up. Maybe apathy. Maybe a holiday season. Maybe lack of premium paid encouraged people to not vote.
  • In a surprise move, Genting Bhd (GENT MK)– or Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) – has joined the six incumbents in bidding for new casino licences in Macau.

Takeaways from the Times Neighborhood Investment Debacle

By Sameer Taneja

  • Times Neighborhood (9928 HK) has been a disastrous call since we first highlighted it. In this insight, we reflect upon the red flags we could have done well to spot. 
  • We cover red flags ranging from the level of precise guidance, pivot in strategy, and the parent’s poor financial health, to the effect on receivables sucking cash from the company. 
  • Everyone makes mistakes (we are human, after all). We would like to share our experience to educate readers to become better investors and sidestep investments in such names.  

The Second Leg Down In This Bear Market May Be Happening Now?

By Michael J. Howell

  • S&P500 (SPX) likely to test 3200, may be even 3000, as earnings get crushed. It looks like a classic ‘second leg-down’ in the bear market
  • Tight Central Bank Liquidity has hit sensitive bond markets driving yields higher, but also causing term premia to worryingly collapse to near all-time lows
  • Term premia fall is already set-in-stone and historically has led to much weaker reported corporate earnings some 15 months later. Hence US S&P500 earnings could skid by 20% in 2023

Onewo IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (19 Sep) – Link Admin, Ramsay, Alliance, Genex, Moya, Singapore Medical, VNET

By Arun George

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Moya, Singapore Medical, Link Admin, Giordano,111 Inc, VNET

By David Blennerhassett

3Q Dividend Estimates of Those with SSF for Cash & Carry Arb in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • Juice for cash & carry arbitrage doesn’t seem like much. Several names in contango, but the basis widening isn’t at a sufficiently arb-tradable level.
  • Reverse cash & carry isn’t all that attractive either, but it certainly does offer more juice, even with borrow fees. Ssangyong C&E, SKT, Shinhan, and KB deserve our attention.
  • A bit uncertain is whether the pattern of “LONG Spot until ex-dividend and Conversion to Short” through cash & carry will repeat itself this time.

That’s It Then As Link Admin Rejects D&D’s Revised Terms

By David Blennerhassett

  • After 23 months of negotiations, various bids from various parties, culminating in a protracted on-again, off-again, negotiation with Dye & Durham, Link Administration (LNK AU) has called it a day.
  • D&D arguably did the right thing and tabled a revised proposal to account for any enforcement process after the UK’s FCA raised redress payments. Link has rejected the revised terms. 
  • Link will now pursue an in-specie distribution of a minimum of 80% of Link’s shareholding in PEXA Group (PXA AU).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Sep 19
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: OZ Minerals Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • OZ Minerals Could Get an Improved Offer from BHP

OZ Minerals Could Get an Improved Offer from BHP

By Arun George

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Sep 19
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Sembcorp Marine and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • FTSE Straits Times Index (STI): Quiddity Primer

FTSE Straits Times Index (STI): Quiddity Primer

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) (STI INDEX) consists of the 30 largest companies listed in the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX).
  • This is one of the well-known national blue-chip indices in the Asia-Pacific region.
  • In this insight, we will have a look at the selection criteria and the historical price performance of past Rebalance Events.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Sep 19
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Genting Bhd and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Genting’s Suprise Bid for Macau Casino Not Resonating with Investors Seeing Uncertainties Ahead

Genting’s Suprise Bid for Macau Casino Not Resonating with Investors Seeing Uncertainties Ahead

By Howard J Klein

  • During the current rebidding process for the six Macau concessions, a seventh “surprise guest”filed a bid. Opinion of their chances are mixed at best.
  • Genting has tended to overreach over time in other markets.
  • Macau operators already face daunting recovery odds ahead that will impose strains on cash and debt refis at higher rates.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Sep 19
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Sembcorp Marine and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • FTSE Straits Times Index (STI): Quiddity Primer

FTSE Straits Times Index (STI): Quiddity Primer

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) (STI INDEX) consists of the 30 largest companies listed in the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX).
  • This is one of the well-known national blue-chip indices in the Asia-Pacific region.
  • In this insight, we will have a look at the selection criteria and the historical price performance of past Rebalance Events.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Sep 19
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Link Administration, SK Telecom, ROBLOX Corp, Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (19 Sep) – Link Admin, Ramsay, Alliance, Genex, Moya, Singapore Medical, VNET
  • 3Q Dividend Estimates of Those with SSF for Cash & Carry Arb in Korea
  • That’s It Then As Link Admin Rejects D&D’s Revised Terms
  • Roblox Analyst Day Observations
  • China Internet Weekly (19Sep2022): Tencent, NetEase, Meituan, Trip.com

Merger Arb Mondays (19 Sep) – Link Admin, Ramsay, Alliance, Genex, Moya, Singapore Medical, VNET

By Arun George

3Q Dividend Estimates of Those with SSF for Cash & Carry Arb in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • Juice for cash & carry arbitrage doesn’t seem like much. Several names in contango, but the basis widening isn’t at a sufficiently arb-tradable level.
  • Reverse cash & carry isn’t all that attractive either, but it certainly does offer more juice, even with borrow fees. Ssangyong C&E, SKT, Shinhan, and KB deserve our attention.
  • A bit uncertain is whether the pattern of “LONG Spot until ex-dividend and Conversion to Short” through cash & carry will repeat itself this time.

That’s It Then As Link Admin Rejects D&D’s Revised Terms

By David Blennerhassett

  • After 23 months of negotiations, various bids from various parties, culminating in a protracted on-again, off-again, negotiation with Dye & Durham, Link Administration (LNK AU) has called it a day.
  • D&D arguably did the right thing and tabled a revised proposal to account for any enforcement process after the UK’s FCA raised redress payments. Link has rejected the revised terms. 
  • Link will now pursue an in-specie distribution of a minimum of 80% of Link’s shareholding in PEXA Group (PXA AU).

Roblox Analyst Day Observations

By Aaron Gabin

  • Roblox Analyst Day featured some interesting new initiatives around advertising and marketplace dynamics.
  • The company will launch a self serve advertising platform in 2023 that has the potential to be worth an incremental 20% of revenues and margin supportive.
  • The company is also allowing developers to start introducing scare items, and begin participating in the on-platform resale market.

China Internet Weekly (19Sep2022): Tencent, NetEase, Meituan, Trip.com

By Ming Lu

  • Tencent and NetEase received new licenses from the authorities more than a year.
  • Meituan’s car-hailing service joined Tencent WeChat’s traffic platform, Tencent Passenger Traffic.
  • Express parcels and their revenue continued to recover in August.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free