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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Feb 12
0

Daily Brief Australia: Commonwealth Bank of Australia, BHP Group Ltd, CSL Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | Commonwealth Bank (CBA AU) – Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights
  • Uranium Wild Predictions and which Base Metals Restart will Make Bank First?
  • CSL Ltd (CSL AU): Weak Vaccine Sales Affect H1FY25 Performance; FY25 Guidance Maintained

EQD | Commonwealth Bank (CBA AU) – Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) is set to announce its 2025 Half Year Results on 12 February.
  • Option prices suggest a 2.4% move in either direction, which is less than the historic move of 3.4% over the past six announcements.
  • Traders can trade the event through 13 February 2025 listed options (weekly expiration).

Uranium Wild Predictions and which Base Metals Restart will Make Bank First?

By Money of Mine

  • BHP plans for a small increase in uranium production at Olympic Dam, with speculation on the impact
  • Interview with Grant Isaac from Cameco sheds light on the uranium market trends

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

CSL Ltd (CSL AU): Weak Vaccine Sales Affect H1FY25 Performance; FY25 Guidance Maintained

By Tina Banerjee

  • For H1FY25, CSL Ltd (CSL AU) reported net profit of $2.01B, up 6% YoY, missing estimate of $2.07B. Underlying profit (NPATA) grew 3% YoY to $2.07B.
  • H1FY25 revenue increased 5% YoY to $8.48B. Solid performance from CSL Behring and CSL Vifor was partially offset by negative impact from CSL Seqirus.
  • The company has reaffirmed FY25 underlying profit guidance of $3.2–3.3B at constant currency, up 10–13% YoY. Revenue growth is anticipated to be 5–7% YoY at constant currency.    

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Feb 12
0

Daily Brief Singapore: Paragon REIT, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP): Cuscaden Peak’s Attractive Privatisation Offer
  • Japanese Auto, Tire Firms Sense Opportunity As Trump Clamps Tariffs
  • Straits Times Index Makes Fresh All-Time High Above 3,900

Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP): Cuscaden Peak’s Attractive Privatisation Offer

By Arun George

  • Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP) announced a privatisation proposal from Cuscaden Peak at S$1.0033 per unit (S$0.98 cash per unit and the 2H FY2024 distribution of S$0.0233 per unit).  
  • The offer price is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent privatisations.  It represents an all-time high. 
  • No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. At the current price and for an end-of-May payment, the gross/annualised spread was 1.3%/4.6%. 

Japanese Auto, Tire Firms Sense Opportunity As Trump Clamps Tariffs

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Japanese tire firms mull option of broadening production base in US  
  • May explore low-cost Southeast Asian destinations too  
  • Diversifying supply-chain network to be on top of agenda  

Straits Times Index Makes Fresh All-Time High Above 3,900

By Geoff Howie

  • The Straits Times Index recorded a net institutional inflow of S$489 million over the 10-month period.
  • DBS reported a record net profit of S$11.4 billion for FY24, with plans for capital management.
  • Yangzijiang Shipbuilding led STI gains with a 65% price increase, continuing its trend from previous years.

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Feb 12
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Samsung Life Insurance and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Block Deal Sale of About 278 Billion Won of Samsung Electronics by Samsung Life and Samsung F&M

Block Deal Sale of About 278 Billion Won of Samsung Electronics by Samsung Life and Samsung F&M

By Douglas Kim

  • Samsung Life Insurance (032830 KS) and Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810 KS) plan to sell about 278 billion won of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) in block deal sales.
  • A total of 5 million shares of Samsung Electronics shares that are expected to be sold in this block deal sale represents 0.1% of Samsung Electronics’ outstanding shares.
  • If Samsung Life Insurance is able to sell 4.256 million shares of Samsung Electronics for 236.4 billion won, this would represent 1.3% of Samsung Life Insurance’s market cap. 

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Feb 12
0

Daily Brief United States: SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Qualcomm Inc, Crude Oil, Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet , Natural Gas, Microstrategy Inc Cl A, Sailpoint Technologies Holdings, The Walt Disney Co, Cognizant Tech Solutions A and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Japanese Auto, Tire Firms Sense Opportunity As Trump Clamps Tariffs
  • Qualcomm’s AI-Powered Future: Will It Dominate PCs, Smartphones, and Cars?
  • [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/06] WTI Falls on Trade Policy Uncertainty, Rising Inventories
  • AMD’s AI Bet Is Failing? DeepSeek Challenges the Market While Nvidia Widens the Gap!
  • Alphabet’s AI Spending Nightmare: Will $75 Billion CapEx Be Enough To Come Close To DeepSeek & OpenAI?
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/06] Henry Hub Rises on Colder Forecasts and Falling Gas Reserves
  • MicroStrategy Incorporated: How Is The Management Embracing Volatility & Innovative Capital Structures?
  • SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) — IPO Price Range Increased; Software Order Book Demand Is Fever Pitch
  • Disney: A $293M Streaming Comeback and the Big ESPN Gamble—Will It Pay Off?
  • Cognizant Technology Solutions: Executing Large-Sized Strategic Deals & Acquisitions Like Belcan Can Truly Widen Its Market Reach!

Japanese Auto, Tire Firms Sense Opportunity As Trump Clamps Tariffs

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Japanese tire firms mull option of broadening production base in US  
  • May explore low-cost Southeast Asian destinations too  
  • Diversifying supply-chain network to be on top of agenda  

Qualcomm’s AI-Powered Future: Will It Dominate PCs, Smartphones, and Cars?

By Baptista Research

  • Qualcomm reported a strong financial performance in its latest quarter, with revenue increasing 17% year-over year to $11.67 billion, surpassing analyst expectations.
  • Growth was primarily driven by increased sales in its handset and automotive segments.
  • Despite a broader market slowdown, Qualcomm’s handset revenue rose 13%, benefiting from higher premium-tier smartphone sales and design wins with major manufacturers like Samsung and Chinese OEMs. The company also reported a 61% increase in automotive revenue to $961 million, reflecting strong demand for its Snapdragon Digital Chassis solutions.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/06] WTI Falls on Trade Policy Uncertainty, Rising Inventories

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures fell by 2.1% for the week ending 07/Feb on the back of uncertain trade policy, growing U.S. crude stockpiles, and a strengthening dollar.
  • WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 1.18 from 1.31 (31/Jan) last week, as call volume fell by 51% WoW while put volume dropped by 56.1%.  
  • WTI OI PCR fell to 0.98 from 1.00 last week. Call OI rose by 5.2% WoW, while put OI grew by 3.5%.

AMD’s AI Bet Is Failing? DeepSeek Challenges the Market While Nvidia Widens the Gap!

By Baptista Research

  • Advanced Micro Devices reported fourth-quarter revenue of $7.7 billion, a 24% increase year-over-year, driven by strong growth in the data center and client segments.
  • The data center segment, which includes AI accelerators and server processors, delivered $3.9 billion in revenue, up 69% year-over-year but missing analyst expectations of $4.09 billion.
  • The company gained market share in CPUs, securing key wins with hyperscalers like Microsoft, Meta, and Google.

Alphabet’s AI Spending Nightmare: Will $75 Billion CapEx Be Enough To Come Close To DeepSeek & OpenAI?

By Baptista Research

  • Alphabet Inc. has faced a significant market correction, with its stock declining by 5% over the past week, leading to a $200 billion reduction in its market capitalization.
  • This sell-off followed the release of the company’s latest financial results, which, despite reporting revenue growth, highlighted structural challenges that have raised concerns among investors.
  • The primary issues stem from Alphabet Inc.’s substantial capital expenditure on artificial intelligence, slowing momentum in cloud computing, and increasing competitive pressures from more agile AI players such as OpenAI and DeepSeek.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/06] Henry Hub Rises on Colder Forecasts and Falling Gas Reserves

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 07/Feb, U.S. natural gas prices gained 8.7% on the back of colder weather forecasts, rising LNG exports, and falling inventories.
  • Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio decreased to 1.33 from 1.50 (31/Jan) the previous week as call volumes fell by 26.7% WoW, while put volumes declined by 35%. 
  • Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.97 from 0.96 from last week. Call OI rose by 5.6% WoW, while put OI increased by 7.2%.

MicroStrategy Incorporated: How Is The Management Embracing Volatility & Innovative Capital Structures?

By Baptista Research

  • MicroStrategy Incorporated, now rebranded as Strategy, recently held its earnings call to discuss the performance and strategic developments for the fourth quarter and full year 2024.
  • The company is undergoing significant transformation, with its rebranding reflecting its commitment to business intelligence and its role as a major Bitcoin treasury company.
  • This name change and strategic shift symbolize a simplification of its identity while retaining continuity with its past and setting ambitious goals for future growth in digital assets and business intelligence.

SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) — IPO Price Range Increased; Software Order Book Demand Is Fever Pitch

By IPO Boutique

  • The underwriters amended the terms of this offering with a S-1/A. The price range has been upwardly revised from $19.00-$21.00 to $21.00-$23.00.
  • Cornerstone investor Dragoneer has a strong track record with IPOs that have participated in. 
  • The upwardly-revised price adjustment is a very bullish sign for the IPO and we have adjusted our early expectations on this deal.

Disney: A $293M Streaming Comeback and the Big ESPN Gamble—Will It Pay Off?

By Baptista Research

  • Disney’s latest earnings report underscores a company in transition, leveraging its content dominance to bolster its streaming business while facing industry headwinds.
  • The entertainment giant exceeded Wall Street’s expectations across key financial metrics, with revenue climbing 5% to $24.7 billion and net income surging 34% to $2.6 billion.
  • A major contributor was the company’s streaming division, where Disney+ and Hulu posted a $293 million profit in the December quarter, a stark improvement from the $138 million loss a year prior.

Cognizant Technology Solutions: Executing Large-Sized Strategic Deals & Acquisitions Like Belcan Can Truly Widen Its Market Reach!

By Baptista Research

  • Cognizant Technology Solutions reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial outcomes, showing signs of growth and robust strategic positioning in the evolving technology landscape.
  • The company’s revenue for the fourth quarter reached $5.1 billion, reflecting a 6.7% year-over-year increase in constant currency.
  • This growth was fuellled by a rise in demand within its two key segments, Health Sciences and Financial Services, along with the strategic acquisitions of Thirdera and Belcan.

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Feb 12
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Indosat Tbk PT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Indosat (ISAT IJ) – A More Intelligent Future

Indosat (ISAT IJ) – A More Intelligent Future

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Indosat (ISAT IJ) booked 4Q2024 results below estimates, despite improving ARPUs and headline revenues, as margins were depressed with a greater focus on its B2B business. 
  • There was also continuing aggressive competition in starter packs during the quarter, although this abated somewhat in early December but the company also lost non-productive subscribers as a result.
  • Indosat continues to build on its AI edge both around its mobile strategies and as a standalone AI-as-a-service business. Valuations are attractive after sharp correction. 

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Feb 12
0

Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group Holding , HKBN Ltd, Guming Holdings, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), Shanghai Henlius Biotech , China Communications Construction, PegBio and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (BABA) 3Q25 Preview: Benefit from Boycott Against Competitor and Disposals
  • HKBN (1310 HK): A Press Report Causes Trepidation
  • Guming (1364 HK): Upsized at Top-Price. Strong Retail Demand
  • SMIC (981.HK): Revenue Growth Decelerated in 4Q24, and Growth Momentum to Be Regained in 1Q25.
  • Guming Holdings IPO Trading – Strong Retail Demand, with Decent Coverage on the Insti Tranche
  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)- LVC Is Betting on Higher Valuation Upside Due to Business Update
  • China Pair Trade: Long China Comm Const (1800 HK), Short China Railway Group (390 HK)
  • PegBio (派格生物) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation

Alibaba (BABA) 3Q25 Preview: Benefit from Boycott Against Competitor and Disposals

By Ming Lu

  • We believe the boycott against JD.com benefited Alibaba’s Taobao and Tmall Group in 3Q25 results. 
  • We believe 3Q25 results will not reflect the benefits of the disposal of Intime and Sun Art despite that Alibaba may not revise its financial data in 3Q25 results.
  • We set a stock upside of 42% for the next twelve months.

HKBN (1310 HK): A Press Report Causes Trepidation

By Arun George

Guming (1364 HK): Upsized at Top-Price. Strong Retail Demand

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Guming Holdings, the leading mid-priced milk tea player in China, has priced its IPO at the top-end and upsized it to 182.6 mn shares, raising a total of HKD1.8 Bn. 
  • With strong HK retail investor demand, International investors bidding for Guming stock in the IPO had their allocations scaled back to 56.5% from 90% earlier.
  • Guming will list at the HK stock exchange today and could likely see a good  uptick upon listing given robust investor demand.

SMIC (981.HK): Revenue Growth Decelerated in 4Q24, and Growth Momentum to Be Regained in 1Q25.

By Patrick Liao

  • SMIC’s 1Q25 guidance is for revenue to increase by 6% to 8% QoQ, and the gross margin to range from 19% to 21%.   
  • Client revenue contribution from China/Europe/US has changed from 80.8%/15.7%/3.5% in 4Q23 to 89.1%/8.9%/2% in 4Q24. These numbers indicate that SMIC is gradually becoming independent from Europe and the US. 
  • SMIC’s guidance for the year 2025 is that revenue growth is expected to be higher than the industry average in the same markets.

Guming Holdings IPO Trading – Strong Retail Demand, with Decent Coverage on the Insti Tranche

By Clarence Chu

  • Guming Holdings (1364 HK) raised US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO. Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China.
  • Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)- LVC Is Betting on Higher Valuation Upside Due to Business Update

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • LVC continues to increase its holdings in Henlius, indicating that LVC remains optimistic about Henlius as its internationalization process significantly accelerated. We are interested to see Lin Lijun’s next move. 
  • In the short to medium term, based on our conservative forecast on peak sales of HANQUYOU/HANSIZHUANG in overseas markets and domestic product sales, Henlius’ market value could reach RMB13-16 billion.
  • Considering other candidates(e.g. HLX15, HLX11, HLX14), indication expansion, drug combination, etc., revenue of Henlius could reach about RMB8-9 billion in the long term, with market value to reach RMB24-27 billion.

China Pair Trade: Long China Comm Const (1800 HK), Short China Railway Group (390 HK)

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Long China Communications Construction (1800 HK), short China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK) is a good strategy to capitalise on the recent underperformance of CCCC.
  • CCCC has a stronger contract momentum than CRG – its FY24 new contracts were up 7.3%, but CRG was down 12.4%. CCCC is also better positioned for urban construction growth.
  • In terms of dividend yield, CCCC is higher at 6.8% for FY25, yet CRG is only 6.3%. CCCC’s performance should pick up in the rest of 2025.

PegBio (派格生物) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • PegBio, a China-based biotech company, plans to raise up to USD 150 million via a Hong Kong listing.
  • In our previous note, we examined the company’s core product namely PB-119.
  • In this note, we will provide a valuation for the company’s key products.

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Feb 12
0

Daily Brief India: Hexaware Technologies, Alkem Laboratories Ltd, Vishnu Chemicals and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Hexaware Technologies IPO – Not Cheap on Its Own, but Peers Are Trading a Lot Higher
  • Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN): Shifting Focus to Chronic Segment to Yield Result in Long-Term
  • Vishnu Chemicals Limited: Q3 FY25 Update

Hexaware Technologies IPO – Not Cheap on Its Own, but Peers Are Trading a Lot Higher

By Clarence Chu

  • Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) is looking to raise US$1bn from its India IPO.
  • Hexaware is a global digital and technology services company with AI at its core, delivering innovative solutions that help customers in their digital transformation journey and subsequent operations.
  • In this note, we discuss its RHP updates, undertake a peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.

Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN): Shifting Focus to Chronic Segment to Yield Result in Long-Term

By Tina Banerjee

  • Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN) has announced twin acquisitions in medical devices and dermatology space. The acquisitions will further strengthen Alkem’s positioning in the domestic market.
  • Alkem has reported Q3FY25 result, with mainstay domestic business showing 6% YoY growth. EBITDA margin improved to 22.5% (Q3FY24: 21.3% and Q2FY25: 22.0%).
  • Alkem’s inclination toward acute and NELM segments has been a reason for its historically cheaper valuation. However, with portfolio expansion toward high-margin chronic segment should place Alkem for re-rating.

Vishnu Chemicals Limited: Q3 FY25 Update

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Vishnu Chemicals (VCL IN) posted strong Q3 financials with 22% revenue, 55% EBITDA, and 66% PAT YoY growth; new capex in chromium and expansion of barium, Strontium Carbonate production underway.
  • Capacity of chromium has potential to operate at 90% utilization level, where Barium segment is operating at  60-70%, can be used till 80-85%.
  • Company is plan to gain market share in US due to reduced competition.

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Feb 12
0

Daily Brief Japan: Furukawa Co Ltd, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Toyota Motor Corp Spon Adr, Shimano Inc, United Arrows, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Minato Holdings, Wacom Co Ltd, Macnica Holdings Inc, Shofu Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Furukawa (5715 JP) – Third Capital Policy Change in a Year Means Big Buyback
  • Japanese Auto, Tire Firms Sense Opportunity As Trump Clamps Tariffs
  • Toyota Motors: Is It Really Adapting to China’s Market For Long-Term Growth?
  • Shimano (7309) | Q4 Preview and Outlook
  • United Arrows Rising Again
  • Activist Investors with Increased AUM Will Also Likely Target Larger Companies for Investment
  • Minato Holdings (6862 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • Wacom (6727 JP) – Laying the Groundwork
  • Macnica Holdings (3132 JP) – Q3 FY3/25 Results Update
  • Shofu (7979 JP) – Positive Dynamics Intact

Furukawa (5715 JP) – Third Capital Policy Change in a Year Means Big Buyback

By Travis Lundy

  • In May 2023, Furukawa Co Ltd (5715 JP) decided it would review cross-holdings as part of its Actions to Implement Management Awareness of Capital Cost and Share Price.
  • In February 2024, it announced a cross-holding reduction policy, and then accelerated it in May 2024. They’ve been selling. They did a small buyback too. 
  • Monday they announced a LARGE buyback (looks larger than it is) leaving future capital allocation policy better, but still wanting. The question is now the forward-forward bet.

Japanese Auto, Tire Firms Sense Opportunity As Trump Clamps Tariffs

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Japanese tire firms mull option of broadening production base in US  
  • May explore low-cost Southeast Asian destinations too  
  • Diversifying supply-chain network to be on top of agenda  

Toyota Motors: Is It Really Adapting to China’s Market For Long-Term Growth?

By Baptista Research

  • Toyota Motor Corporation’s financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 reveal a period of cautious resilience amidst both internal challenges and external pressures.
  • The company’s operating income for the first half of the fiscal year was recorded at JPY 2.4642 trillion, closely matching the figures from the same period last year, despite hurdles including production halts due to certification issues and the incremental costs associated with addressing these disruptions.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Shimano (7309) | Q4 Preview and Outlook

By Mark Chadwick

  • Q4 Risks Remain: Market conditions deteriorated in late 2024, and key data points suggest a potential miss on Q4 earnings expectations.
  • Focus on 2025 Outlook: Investors should shift attention to Shimano’s guidance, capital allocation strategy, and potential shareholder return initiatives in the coming year.
  • Long-Term Value: Despite short-term uncertainties, Shimano’s strong fundamentals and disciplined strategy position it well for sustainable growth and high returns.

United Arrows Rising Again

By Michael Causton

  • United Arrows spent a few years in retreat as a succession of problems around e-commerce, Covid and merchandising hit sales.
  • Instead, competitors like the unlisted retailers, Baycrews and Mash Holdings, took greater share thanks to innovative ideas and new chains mixing fashion, lifestyle and food.
  • United Arrows now claims the backend fixes are complete and it is starting to expand again, with new chains and target segments, both at home and overseas. Can it succeed?

Activist Investors with Increased AUM Will Also Likely Target Larger Companies for Investment

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Engagement begins only when there is a common understanding that “the management goal is to increase corporate value and shareholder interest.
  • Because of differences in the level of understanding among listed companies, not all companies are able to smoothly discuss solutions to management issues based on the same common understanding.
  • While ROA improved moderately, ROE improved slightly, indicating that more and more companies are committed to shareholder returns.

Minato Holdings (6862 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 28.8% YoY to JPY18.2bn, driven by strong growth in the Digital Device Business segment.
  • Operating profit decreased by 43.3% YoY to JPY669mn, with a significant decline in the Digital Engineering Business.
  • Minato Holdings revised FY03/25 forecast: revenue JPY23.0bn (+20.9% YoY), operating profit JPY735mn (-40.5% YoY).

Wacom (6727 JP) – Laying the Groundwork

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • With the company close to announcing its new medium-term plan ‘Wacom Chapter 4’ covering FY3/26 to FY3/29, Q1-3 FY3/25 results continue to indicate strength in the Technology Solution Business with OEM partnerships, with the decline in demand from the non-professional sector for the Branded Business.
  • With the decrease in temporary costs related to inventory and structural business reform, segmental losses are being lowered in the Branded Business which is positive and points to breakeven being achieved in the medium term.
  • Management has telegraphed additional business restructuring expenses in Q4 FY3/25, underlining the importance of optimizing operations before FY3/26.

Macnica Holdings (3132 JP) – Q3 FY3/25 Results Update

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Robust Network and Sales mix improvement – Q3 FY3/25 results showed an uptick in gross profit (+8.0% QoQ), driven by the expansion of the network business, sales mix improvement, and enhanced product mix in the semiconductor business where lower- margin memory weakened whilst relatively higher-margin PLDs grew.
  • OP margin also improved (Q2 FY3/25 3.9%, Q3 FY3/25 4.1%).
  • Network maintained a positive segment OP growth trend (Q1-Q3 FY3/25 cumulative +79% YoY), leading to segment OP margin improvement to 8.2%. 

Shofu (7979 JP) – Positive Dynamics Intact

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Demand for Shofu’s competitive Chemical products continue to drive overseas growth and improve the sales mix, with 58.6% of total Q1-3 FY3/25 sales derived overseas.
  • Reported quarterly Q3 FY3/25 GPM and OPM have declined QoQ, but these were due to one-time events, resulting in a robust underlying trend indicating that the business is becoming more profitable whilst still investing in business expansion.
  • The weak yen has been a tailwind, but the company has maintained FY3/25 guidance. With no end-loaded costs expected for Q4 FY3/25, we maintain our earnings estimates.

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Feb 12
0

Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), HKBN Ltd, Brother Industries, Hyundai Motor India , A2 Milk Co Ltd, Oracle Financial Services, Samsung Life Insurance, Paragon REIT, Furukawa Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
  • HKBN (1310 HK): Just How Likely Is An I Squared Offer?
  • Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February
  • NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March
  • S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March
  • Nifty IT Index Rebalance Preview: Oracle Financial Services Could Replace L&T Tech
  • Block Deal Sale of About 278 Billion Won of Samsung Electronics by Samsung Life and Samsung F&M
  • Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)’s Privatisation Offer
  • Furukawa (5715 JP) – Third Capital Policy Change in a Year Means Big Buyback
  • HKBN (1310 HK): A Press Report Causes Trepidation

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

By Brian Freitas

HKBN (1310 HK): Just How Likely Is An I Squared Offer?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Two hours before China Mobile’s pre-conditional voluntary Offer announcement on the 2 December, HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)  flagged a possible separate Offer from I Squared Asia-backed HGC Global Communication (HGC). 
  • No price was mentioned, although HKBN and I Squared “are in discussions on the terms of the proposal (including the price).” The media is reporting a HK$5-HK$6/share price range.
  • Apart from anti-competition concerns via a HKBN/HGC tie-in; would HGC even get approval from the powers that be to proceed with a merger?

Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.
  • Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.
  • The forecast deletes have underperformed the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period now complete, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in March.
  • Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) and Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) are a hair’s breadth apart on market cap and only one of them could be added to the index.
  • With quantitative criteria now being used to add stocks to the F&O segment, it is possible there is no change to the index methodology to limit inclusion to F&O members.

S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be one constituent change each for the NZX10 Index and the NZX50 Index/ NZX50 Portfolio Index in March.
  • The flows are limited but the impacts are huge, and the stocks could move ahead of the announcement of the changes.
  • A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) is a potential inclusion to the NZX10 Index, but the inflows will be completely overshadowed by the potential deletion from a global index.

Nifty IT Index Rebalance Preview: Oracle Financial Services Could Replace L&T Tech

By Brian Freitas

Block Deal Sale of About 278 Billion Won of Samsung Electronics by Samsung Life and Samsung F&M

By Douglas Kim

  • Samsung Life Insurance (032830 KS) and Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810 KS) plan to sell about 278 billion won of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) in block deal sales.
  • A total of 5 million shares of Samsung Electronics shares that are expected to be sold in this block deal sale represents 0.1% of Samsung Electronics’ outstanding shares.
  • If Samsung Life Insurance is able to sell 4.256 million shares of Samsung Electronics for 236.4 billion won, this would represent 1.3% of Samsung Life Insurance’s market cap. 

Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)’s Privatisation Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP) and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24’s S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.
  • The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.
  • Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.

Furukawa (5715 JP) – Third Capital Policy Change in a Year Means Big Buyback

By Travis Lundy

  • In May 2023, Furukawa Co Ltd (5715 JP) decided it would review cross-holdings as part of its Actions to Implement Management Awareness of Capital Cost and Share Price.
  • In February 2024, it announced a cross-holding reduction policy, and then accelerated it in May 2024. They’ve been selling. They did a small buyback too. 
  • Monday they announced a LARGE buyback (looks larger than it is) leaving future capital allocation policy better, but still wanting. The question is now the forward-forward bet.

HKBN (1310 HK): A Press Report Causes Trepidation

By Arun George

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Feb 12
0

Daily Brief Utilities: Vistra and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Vistra Corp: DeepSeek Challenging the AI-Power Demand Thesis Could Be A MATTER OF CONCERN!

Vistra Corp: DeepSeek Challenging the AI-Power Demand Thesis Could Be A MATTER OF CONCERN!

By Baptista Research

  • The emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup, has sent shockwaves across Wall Street, and energy companies are feeling the aftershocks.
  • Vistra Energy suffered its worst single-day decline ever, plunging 28% on January 29, 2025, shedding a staggering $18.4 billion in market value.
  • Constellation Energy (NASDAQ: CEG) also nosedived by 21%, erasing $22.8 billion in capitalization.

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