Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Krosaki Harima (5352 JP) has recommended a preconditional tender offer from Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP), the parent, at JPY4,200, a 21.7% premium to the last close price of JPY3,450.
The offer is attractive as it represents an all-time high and is above the mid-point of the special committee IFA DCF valuation range.
The precondition relates to regulatory approvals in Japan and India. The tender offer is expected to start in early February 2026. This is a done deal.

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Aug 03

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: HKBN Ltd, SK Hynix, Qualcomm Inc, Topcon Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

HKBN (1310 HK): Pre-Cons Satisfied. Offer To Open Shortly
HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Satisfies the Precondition
Inside Samsung’s HBM3E Chicken Game
[Earnings Review] Qualcomm Rides Android Wave, But Apple Exit and Licensing Strains Linger
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Topcon, Joy City, Hogy Medical, Nihon Chouzai, Piedmont Lithium, Pacific Ind.

HKBN (1310 HK): Pre-Cons Satisfied. Offer To Open Shortly

Almost exactly eight months after HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) announced a pre-conditional Offer, China Mobile (941 HK) has now satisfied all pre-cons.
The Offer Doc will be dispatched on or around the 12th August, at which time the Offer will be open for acceptances.
This could turn unconditional early September. Trading tight at a gross spread of 1.5%. Keep in mind a basket of peers are up 23% since the Offer was announced.

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Satisfies the Precondition

The precondition for China Mobile (941 HK)’s HK$5.075 offer for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) is satisfied. The offer is final. The offer document must be despatched by 8 August.
The HKBN CEO has commented that the China Mobile offer is not good enough, suggesting a possibility that the Board does not recommend the offer.
Nevertheless, there is a clear pathway for the offer to satisfy the 50% minimum acceptance condition and be declared unconditional. The gross/annualised spread for a 13 September payment is 1.5%/13.0%.

Inside Samsung’s HBM3E Chicken Game

By Sanghyun Park

Samsung’s playing its old game—sacrificing margins to shake rivals—aiming to disrupt DRAM and win HBM4, assuming it clears NVIDIA’s HBM3E qual test soon.
Local intel says no official word from Samsung yet, but the street thinks qual’s done—hence Samsung’s bold HBM3E tone and oversupply warning on the call.
There’s urgency—Samsung’s undercutting Hynix now to stop them from reinvesting cash into DRAM fab expansion, a playbook Samsung once dominated with.

[Earnings Review] Qualcomm Rides Android Wave, But Apple Exit and Licensing Strains Linger

By Raghav Vashisht

Handset and edge networking demand powered a strong QCT beat, but licensing growth underwhelmed, and margins declined sequentially.
Apple modem revenues will fade by 2026, and the management conspicuously avoided commentary on China auto; both adding to uncertainty.
Snapdragon X’s monetisation has been deferred, while XR design momentum was a rare bright spot beyond mobile.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Topcon, Joy City, Hogy Medical, Nihon Chouzai, Piedmont Lithium, Pacific Ind.

I tally 40 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Joy City Property (207 HK), Hogy Medical (3593 JP), and Nihon Chouzai (3341 JP).
Key updates/news took place on MAC Copper (MAC AU), PointsBet (PBH AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Piedmont Lithium (PLL AU),Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), and Topcon (7732 JP) .

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Aug 03

Daily Brief Industrials: CK Hutchison Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutch, GMO Internet, Prosus/Meituan, Piedmont Lithium

Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutch, GMO Internet, Prosus/Meituan, Piedmont Lithium

Intervention seeds participation as a PRC investor (COSCO?) is expected to join the bidding consortium for CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) ports.
GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) needs to sell shares in GMO Internet (4784 JP)to achieve a “float” of 35% by 31 December 2026. Recent filings show they are selling.
Prosus NV (PRX NA) has been selling Tencent (700 HK), then buying back its shares. (As has Tencent). Reportedly Prosus is now selling shares in Meituan (3690 HK).

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Aug 03

Daily Brief Health Care: WuXi AppTec and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.3)-Medical Device Valuation Repair,Deal on IBI363,WuXi AppTec Placement

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.3)-Medical Device Valuation Repair,Deal on IBI363,WuXi AppTec Placement

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

A key point of the press conference held by the NHSA is that the selection in centralized procurement of medical devices will no longer be based on the lowest price.
Investors have high hopes for the licensing cooperation of IBI363. Our guess is a 50:50 licensing deal with MNC is expected, so as to maximize the value/potential of the drug.
Considering Li Ge’s rich experience in capital operation, WuXi AppTec’s Placement implies its H-share is already at high level.Investors can consider taking profits, as share price adjustment may be coming.

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Aug 03

Most Read: Bank Central Asia, WuXi AppTec, GDS Holdings , Hyosung Heavy Industries Corp, GF Securities (H), NSDL, China Huarong Asset Management, Hitachi Energy India, Ricoh Company Ltd, PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Changes Across the Indices
WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) Placement: Strong Momentum & Index Flows
GDS Holdings (9698 HK): Global Index Inclusion as Shorts Build Up
Hyosung Heavy (298040 KS): Positioning Not Extreme as Index Inclusion Nears
GF Securities (1776 HK): Global Index Inclusion as Sector Rallies
NSDL (NSDL IN) IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion Timeline
China Citic Financial (2799 HK): Global Index Inclusion as Valuation Blows Out
Hitachi Energy India (POWERIND IN): Powering into a Global Index in August
Ricoh (7752 JP): Potential Global Index Deletion in August
Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN IJ): Potential Global Index Inclusion & The Risks

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Changes Across the Indices

There are 2 constituent changes each for the IDX30 Index and the LQ45 Index, and 3 constituent changes for IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 July.
The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Central Asia, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia, Mitra Adiperkasa, XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera, Indo Tambangraya Megah and Bank Mandiri Persero.
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.

WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) Placement: Strong Momentum & Index Flows

WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) is looking to raise US$650m at a price range of HK$104.16-106.4/share, a 5-7% discount from last close.
There will be passive buying from global index trackers around the time of settlement of the placement shares. Then there will be some Hang Seng Index buying in August.
Short interest in WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) has spiked and some shorts could cover into the placement. The AH premium could move higher following the placement.

GDS Holdings (9698 HK): Global Index Inclusion as Shorts Build Up

Following a rally in the stock over the last 3 months, GDS Holdings (9698 HK) / GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US) could be added to a global index in August.
Short interest in GDS Holdings (9698 HK) has been increasing. Add the short interest in GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US) and the number is pretty big.
Despite the recent rally, GDS Holdings (9698 HK) trades cheaper than its closest peer and there could be opportunities to enter market neutral trades.

Hyosung Heavy (298040 KS): Positioning Not Extreme as Index Inclusion Nears

In an all too familiar sight across a range of stocks across a range of markets, Hyosung Heavy Industries‘ stock price has doubled over the last 3 months.
The increased market cap should result in index inclusion and passive trackers are estimated to buy 358k shares (US$291m; 4.5x ADV) at the close on 26 August.
Hyosung Heavy has outperformed most peers over the last few months but still trades at reasonable relative valuations. Positioning does not appear excessive relative to peers.

GF Securities (1776 HK): Global Index Inclusion as Sector Rallies

Following a rally in the stock over the last 4 months, GF Securities (H) (1776 HK) could be added to a global index in August.
GF Securities (H) (1776 HK)‘ peers have also rallied over the same time frame and the stock trades in line with its peers on various valuation metrics.
Positioning in the stock is in line with its peers and shorts have continued to increase as the stock price has moved higher.

NSDL (NSDL IN) IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion Timeline

NSDL (NSDL IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR 40bn (US$464m) of stock at a valuation of up to INR 160bn (US$1.85bn).
The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in November.
Central Depository Services (CDSL IN)‘s stock price has dropped following the announcement of NSDL‘s IPO price band and the muted results could lead to further downside in the stock.

China Citic Financial (2799 HK): Global Index Inclusion as Valuation Blows Out

A doubling of the stock price over the last 4 months could lead to China Huarong Asset Management (2799 HK)‘s inclusion in a global index in August.
China Huarong Asset Management (2799 HK) has outperformed its closest peer and trades at a much higher price to book.
China Huarong Asset Management (2799 HK) was added to Southbound Stock Connect in March and investors have been buying the stock via the link.

Hitachi Energy India (POWERIND IN): Powering into a Global Index in August

A big rally in Hitachi Energy India (POWERIND IN) this year could lead to the stock being added to a global index in August.
Hitachi Energy India (POWERIND IN) has outperformed its peers and now trades at significantly higher valuations compared to its peer group.
There is positioning in the stock and early entrants could be looking to unwind some of their holdings over the next couple of weeks.

Ricoh (7752 JP): Potential Global Index Deletion in August

The slide in Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP)‘s stock price over the last few months could lead to the deletion of the stock from a global index in August.
Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP) has underperformed its peers over the last couple of months and trades cheaper than the average of its peers.
There are indications of positioning in the stock. However, positioning is likely smaller than the estimated passive selling and there could be more downside for the stock near-term.

Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN IJ): Potential Global Index Inclusion & The Risks

PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN IJ) could be added to a global index in August but there are multiple risks for the stock.
PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN IJ) trades at significantly higher multiples compared to its peers and the recent price spike raises the risk of addition to the UMA list.
PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN IJ) has outperformed its peers and positioning is big, raising the risk of the stock moving lower over the next few weeks.

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Aug 03

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): APAC Healthcare Weekly (Aug 3)– Celltrion and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Aug 3)– Celltrion, Alteogen, Wuxi Bio, CSPC, Jiangsu Hengrui, Eisai, Kissei

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Aug 3)– Celltrion, Alteogen, Wuxi Bio, CSPC, Jiangsu Hengrui, Eisai, Kissei

By Tina Banerjee

Celltrion is acquiring a biopharmaceutical production plant in the U.S. capable of producing key biopharmaceuticals. Alteogen received positive opinion from European Medicines Agency for its Eylea biosimilar.
Wuxi Biologics has begun construction for new modular Drug Product facility in Singapore. CSPC Pharmaceutical entered into an exclusive license agreement with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, for its oral GLP-1 drug candidate.
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals has entered into agreements with GlaxoSmithKline, to grant GSK an exclusive worldwide right (excluding China) of HRS-9821 and up to 11 other programs.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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✓ Company Data and News
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Aug 03

Daily Brief ECM: China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.3)-Medical Device Valuation Repair and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.3)-Medical Device Valuation Repair,Deal on IBI363,WuXi AppTec Placement

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.3)-Medical Device Valuation Repair,Deal on IBI363,WuXi AppTec Placement

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

A key point of the press conference held by the NHSA is that the selection in centralized procurement of medical devices will no longer be based on the lowest price.
Investors have high hopes for the licensing cooperation of IBI363. Our guess is a 50:50 licensing deal with MNC is expected, so as to maximize the value/potential of the drug.
Considering Li Ge’s rich experience in capital operation, WuXi AppTec’s Placement implies its H-share is already at high level.Investors can consider taking profits, as share price adjustment may be coming.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 03

Daily Brief Event-Driven: HKBN (1310 HK): Pre-Cons Satisfied. Offer To Open Shortly and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

HKBN (1310 HK): Pre-Cons Satisfied. Offer To Open Shortly
HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Satisfies the Precondition
Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutch, GMO Internet, Prosus/Meituan, Piedmont Lithium
Krosaki Harima (5352 JP): Nippon Steel’s Preconditional Tender Offer at JPY4,200
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Topcon, Joy City, Hogy Medical, Nihon Chouzai, Piedmont Lithium, Pacific Ind.

HKBN (1310 HK): Pre-Cons Satisfied. Offer To Open Shortly

Almost exactly eight months after HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) announced a pre-conditional Offer, China Mobile (941 HK) has now satisfied all pre-cons.
The Offer Doc will be dispatched on or around the 12th August, at which time the Offer will be open for acceptances.
This could turn unconditional early September. Trading tight at a gross spread of 1.5%. Keep in mind a basket of peers are up 23% since the Offer was announced.

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Satisfies the Precondition

The precondition for China Mobile (941 HK)’s HK$5.075 offer for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) is satisfied. The offer is final. The offer document must be despatched by 8 August.
The HKBN CEO has commented that the China Mobile offer is not good enough, suggesting a possibility that the Board does not recommend the offer.
Nevertheless, there is a clear pathway for the offer to satisfy the 50% minimum acceptance condition and be declared unconditional. The gross/annualised spread for a 13 September payment is 1.5%/13.0%.

Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutch, GMO Internet, Prosus/Meituan, Piedmont Lithium

Intervention seeds participation as a PRC investor (COSCO?) is expected to join the bidding consortium for CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) ports.
GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) needs to sell shares in GMO Internet (4784 JP)to achieve a “float” of 35% by 31 December 2026. Recent filings show they are selling.
Prosus NV (PRX NA) has been selling Tencent (700 HK), then buying back its shares. (As has Tencent). Reportedly Prosus is now selling shares in Meituan (3690 HK).

Krosaki Harima (5352 JP): Nippon Steel’s Preconditional Tender Offer at JPY4,200

Krosaki Harima (5352 JP) has recommended a preconditional tender offer from Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP), the parent, at JPY4,200, a 21.7% premium to the last close price of JPY3,450.
The offer is attractive as it represents an all-time high and is above the mid-point of the special committee IFA DCF valuation range.
The precondition relates to regulatory approvals in Japan and India. The tender offer is expected to start in early February 2026. This is a done deal.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Topcon, Joy City, Hogy Medical, Nihon Chouzai, Piedmont Lithium, Pacific Ind.