Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• Samsung confirmed PRA sign-off for 1c HBM4, shipped samples to NVIDIA, went full redesign on base die, and is in talks with vendors like Hanmi for hybrid bonding gear.
• From a trading POV: Samsung pivoting to Hanmi signals “speed over pride”—a clear tell they’re serious about ramping HBM4 fast, even if it means breaking from vertical integration.
• For the move to stick, yields and customer wins matter — but Hanmi’s stepping up, and this could give Samsung’s HBM4 story a real leg up if it plays out.

• OP pre-announced, the details aren’t inspiring. Margins decline in TV, Semi. Only Smartphone is resilient. 2H25 demand outlook is weak for TV, Smartphone.
• Confident tone on HBM growth, qualifications, ASP increase. Several contradictions: Samsung endorses theory of HBM price pressure (how’s that positive?); HBM3E is already 80% of HBM revenue (where’s the upside?)
• Consensus is revising up slowly, stock is going up sharply. This assumes a large turnaround in memory / HBM / Foundry. 

• Ownership in Alibaba has rebounded to 76.4% of EM funds, nearing its 2020 peak and making it the second most widely held stock among GEM funds, behind only TSMC.
• The past six months have seen strong momentum, with 29 new fund positions marking a 7.7% rise in participation— the third highest among all EM stocks.
• Alibaba attracts broad cross-style interest, with Value funds leading on allocation size, but Growth and GARP strategies among the top holders, reflecting high and diverse conviction.

• 3Q25 guidance (Assuming US$1 = NT$29.2.): Consolidated US$ revenue: +12-14% QoQ; NT$ revenue: +6-8% QoQ; Gross margin: -1 to -1.2ppts QoQ; OPM: -0.1 to -0.3ppts QoQ.
• Still keep US$1bn advanced packaging guidance despite AI boom (TSMC revised up).
• Long-Term success definition for ASE: Transition from OSAT model to foundry-aligned scale.

• In the second quarter of 2025, Honeywell International Inc. delivered robust financial results, maintaining or exceeding expectations across various metrics, despite economic fluctuations.
• The company reported a 5% increase in organic sales growth, driven by strong performances in the Defense and Space and UOP segments, as well as overall increases in orders and backlog reaching a record of $36.6 billion.
• Earnings per share rose by 4% to $2.45, with an adjusted earnings per share up by 10% to $2.75.

• Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK), along with MMC Port Holdings Berhad (2436494D MK), are the two largest container port terminal operators in Malaysia.
• With a stranglehold on Port Klang, where it holds a 75% market share, the company will be the beneficiary of significant tariff hikes of 30% over the next 1.5 years.
• Despite the recent rally, the stock trades at 18x/15x FY25e/26e earnings and a dividend yield of 4%. Following the pricing-led growth, the company is embarking on an expansion plan post-2028. 

• Nvidia’s smooth return to China hits turbulence as regulators question the H20 chip’s security.
• AMD stays below the radar; less political baggage, and could be better positioned if Nvidia is slowed.
• AMD also gets a lift from its Threadripper 9000 launch and a bullish analyst price upgrade.

• TSMC has been operating as a monopoly, raising prices without consequence and controlling pricing in the industry.
• Intel’s CEO’s recent comments about not investing in the next process without an external customer have raised concerns about the future of Intel’s Foundry business.
• The lack of commitment to future processes has led to suggestions that Intel should shut down fabs and secure capacity at TSMC, potentially impacting CPU competitiveness.

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• Flex completed a notable first quarter in fiscal 2026, recording revenues of $6.6 billion, a 4% increase from the previous year.
• The company’s global footprint and strategic positioning appear to play key roles in driving this growth, particularly within the data center sector, which contributed significantly to the revenue.
• Flex reported a robust adjusted operating margin of 6% and an adjusted EPS of $0.72, the highest for a first quarter in the company’s history.

• Occidental’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 9.1% QoQ and 9.4% YoY. Its EPS is projected to fall by 66.7% QoQ and 71.8% YoY.
• Occidental expects Q2 performance to be weighed down by lower production and weaker commodity realizations, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico.
• Options activity and analyst outlooks suggest a potential rebound if earnings meet or beat subdued expectations.