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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jul 28
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Hyundai Motor , Hyosung Heavy Industries Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Korean Policy Tailwinds: Preferred Shares Rerating Play
  • Hyosung Heavy (298040 KS): Positioning Not Extreme as Index Inclusion Nears

Korean Policy Tailwinds: Preferred Shares Rerating Play

By Sanghyun Park

  • Most expect prefs to be in policy crosshairs soon—watch for tighter rules on dividends, discounts, and liquidity, plus likely incentives for redemption or cancellation ahead of commons.
  • If Korea rolls out a pref stock overhaul, long-biased rerate plays could pop—focus on liquid, high-yield large-cap prefs trading at 35%+, yield north of 3%, and solid daily turnover.
  • Korea Inv, Kumho Petro, CJ Cheil, CJ Corp prefs already screen well; Doosan and Hanwha 3PB could join if dividend hikes materialize on back of strong sub earnings.

Hyosung Heavy (298040 KS): Positioning Not Extreme as Index Inclusion Nears

By Brian Freitas

  • In an all too familiar sight across a range of stocks across a range of markets, Hyosung Heavy Industries‘ stock price has doubled over the last 3 months.
  • The increased market cap should result in index inclusion and passive trackers are estimated to buy 358k shares (US$291m; 4.5x ADV) at the close on 26 August.
  • Hyosung Heavy has outperformed most peers over the last few months but still trades at reasonable relative valuations. Positioning does not appear excessive relative to peers.

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Jul 28
0

Daily Brief ESG: How Many Companies Will Be Able to Keep up with the Next Revision of the Corporate Governance Code? and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • How Many Companies Will Be Able to Keep up with the Next Revision of the Corporate Governance Code?

How Many Companies Will Be Able to Keep up with the Next Revision of the Corporate Governance Code?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • It seems unlikely that there’ll be an increase in formal criteria for corporate governance, like in the previous revision. It looks like there’ll be more demand for human capital disclosure.
  • Many companies don’t fully understand human capital, and there’s concern that achieving disclosure criteria will become the goal, rather than original objective of investing in human capital to create value.
  • The revised Corporate Governance Code requires verification that management resources are being appropriately allocated to investment and shareholder returns. It seems that simpler questions are better than difficult “technical terms.”

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Jul 28
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | US-EU Trade Deal Struck and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | US-EU Trade Deal Struck
  • HK Strategy: Time to Revisit the Yield Story
  • Japan Morning Connection: EU Trade Deal Should Help JP Names with High European Exposure Gain

Ohayo Japan | US-EU Trade Deal Struck

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks rose Friday with the S&P 500 notching its fifth consecutive record this week and the Nasdaq reaching a new all-time high
  • Donald Trump struck a major trade deal with the EU, easing tariffs, boosting U.S. energy exports, and averting a transatlantic trade war after months of tense negotiations.
  • Cross-Shareholding unwinding among Japanese listed companies accelerated significantly, with policy shareholding sales rising 50% to a record 9.2 trillion yen in fiscal 2025

HK Strategy: Time to Revisit the Yield Story

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Japan Morning Connection: EU Trade Deal Should Help JP Names with High European Exposure Gain

By Andrew Jackson

  • Screen numbers a headline miss but outlook for guidance hike over 2Q numbers remains.
  • Shin Etsu drop on back of PVC weakness could be short lived on a more dovish outcome.
  • Renesas down after numbers with market wanting more clarity over comments that 2026 remains “unclear”.

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Jul 28
0

Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (28 July 2025) – MMC and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (28 July 2025) – MMC, Pine Lags, Prestige, Veritas, Daehan, Kasumigaseki, NSDL, GNI
  • Shoulder Innovations IPO (SI.US): Expect Upside Vs. IPO Price Due To Superior Growth Profile

ECM Weekly (28 July 2025) – MMC, Pine Lags, Prestige, Veritas, Daehan, Kasumigaseki, NSDL, GNI

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, we had a look at a number of deals that are in the pipeline.
  • On the placements front, it was a relatively quiet week with a few primary raisings.

Shoulder Innovations IPO (SI.US): Expect Upside Vs. IPO Price Due To Superior Growth Profile

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Shoulder Innovations Inc., a pure-play shoulder arthroplasty device company, is expected to IPO soon. 
  • The company’s amended S-1 puts the initial price range per share at $19.00 to $21.00, implying a market cap of ~$450M at midpoint on a fully-diluted basis.  
  • I have a positive view of Shoulder Innovations IPO and see upside vs. IPO price due to the company’s superior growth profile, industry-leading gross margins and capital efficient technology.

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Jul 28
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: China TCM (570.HK) – About the 25H1 Profit Warning and the Outlook and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • China TCM (570.HK) – About the 25H1 Profit Warning and the Outlook
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Premium Remaining Unusually High; UMC & ASE Headroom Changes
  • Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (28 Jul)
  • Domain Holdings Australia Ltd – The Monday Report – 28 July 2025
  • Intel (INTC.US): 18A May Have Been Too Rushed; Now All Hopes Rest on 14A.
  • Sai Gon Cargo Service (SCS VN) Q2 FY25: Maintaining 75% Operating Margins and 50% ROCEs
  • Intel Q225. GM Obfuscation, Red Flags & 14A Now Officially A Risk Factor
  • Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Actemra Shine Bright Amid Margin Pressure, 2025 Guidance Reiterated
  • AeroEdge (7409 JP)
  • Japan Pure Chemical (4973 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

China TCM (570.HK) – About the 25H1 Profit Warning and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • China TCM’s Profit Warning indicates a weak 25H1 results. Performance downturn is longer-than-expected. But as an industry leader, China TCM will enhance its bargaining power by integrating the industrial chain.
  • Investors have reignited interest in betting on privatization of China TCM and potential merger with Taiji, as deadline is approaching.Privatization price may be lower considering China TCM’s weak 25H1 results.
  • HK$0.84-2.17/Share is the reasonable share price range at this stage.The catalyst for China TCM’s share price is CNPGC may announce how to address the horizontal competition issue within three months.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Premium Remaining Unusually High; UMC & ASE Headroom Changes

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +26.3% Premium; Opportunity to Go Short the ADR Premium
  • UMC: -1.2% Discount; ADR Headroom Falls Yet Again by a Significant Amount
  • ASE: +0.7% Premium; Opportunity to Go Long the ADR Premium — ADR Headroom Has First Change in a Long Time

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (28 Jul)

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
  • Highlight: Currently five pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist.
  • Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

Domain Holdings Australia Ltd – The Monday Report – 28 July 2025

By FNArena

  • Trade deals, central bank meetings, earnings season (US & Europe) with first local releases later in the week, as well as the all-important June quarter CPI print domestically will set the mood and tone for the ASX200 this week.
  • ASX200 futures are pointing to a slightly weaker start, but the overnight, EU-US trade deal may boost sentiment.

Intel (INTC.US): 18A May Have Been Too Rushed; Now All Hopes Rest on 14A.

By Patrick Liao

  • On July 24, chip giant Intel announced that its latest 18A advanced process is progressing smoothly. However, the next-generation 14A process will be developed “based on confirmed customer commitments.”
  • Apple (AAPL US) adopt Intel’s 14A process for its future M-series chips, while NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is expected to use the same process for its entry-level gaming GPUs.
  • U.S. President Trump is imposing tariffs on countries around the world, which is indirectly pressuring some manufacturers to accelerate the establishment of U.S.-based production facilities.

Sai Gon Cargo Service (SCS VN) Q2 FY25: Maintaining 75% Operating Margins and 50% ROCEs

By Sameer Taneja

  • Sai Gon Cargo Service (SCS VN) reported flat earnings for Q2 FY25, with operating margins/net margins at 75%/65% and ROCEs topping 50%. 
  • The tariff increases (16% YoY) offset the degrowth in volumes (-5%YoY) and the increase in effective taxation (from 11% to 20%). 
  • Based on management guidance, the stock trades at 9.3x FY25 PE, with an 8.6% dividend yield

Intel Q225. GM Obfuscation, Red Flags & 14A Now Officially A Risk Factor

By William Keating

  • Intel reported Q225 revenues of $12.9 billion, up $200 million QoQ, flat YoY but $1.1 billion above the guided midpoint. After that revenue beat, things went downhill from there.
  • CEO Lip Bu Tan said he will review and approve all future company product designs prior to tape out. Sounds like a vote of no confidence in the design team.
  • Intel’s 10 Q now lists the possibility of pausing or abandoning 14A as a risk factor with doomsday details about the implications for the company

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Actemra Shine Bright Amid Margin Pressure, 2025 Guidance Reiterated

By Tina Banerjee

  • Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) reported 5% YoY rise in core revenue in 1H25, as overseas sales grew 7% YoY and domestic market revenue was up 3%.
  • Actemra witnessed growth in both overseas and domestic market. Hemlibra overseas sales stood at ¥151B (30% of total sales), down 6% YoY.
  • In 1H25, two significant developments that happened are successful P3 trial of orforglipron and positive results from phase I/II study of NXT007.

AeroEdge (7409 JP)

By Michael Fritzell

  • Earlier this month, Substack writer Gezzogero mentioned AeroEdge (7409 JP) (7409 JP — US$88 million) on his blog.
  • I thought it was a fantastic write-up and wanted to dig into it myself.
  • The company is a supplier of aircraft components. It manufactures low-pressure turbine blades for the well-regarded LEAP jet engine, which is used in narrow-body aircraft such as the Airbus (AIR FP) A320neo and Boeing (BA US) 737 MAX.

Japan Pure Chemical (4973 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 10.7% YoY to JPY3.4bn, while operating profit decreased by 37.8% YoY to JPY93mn.
  • Sales for AI servers and data centers remained strong, but consumer product demand stalled due to US-China tensions.
  • Revenue from semiconductor packages grew 24.1% YoY, while automotive-related sales declined slightly due to inventory adjustments.

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Jul 28
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Korean Policy Tailwinds: Preferred Shares Rerating Play and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Korean Policy Tailwinds: Preferred Shares Rerating Play
  • Merger Arb Mondays (28 Jul) – Shibaura, Abacus Storage, Insignia, Mayne, Santos, ENN, Smart Share
  • [Japan M&A] Pacific Industrial (7250) MBO Officially Being Done Dirt Cheap
  • Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk
  • Ainsworth (AGI AU): A Dicey Scheme Vote Underwritten by an Alternative Takeover Offer
  • Weekly Update (AAF, NLOP, KHC)

Korean Policy Tailwinds: Preferred Shares Rerating Play

By Sanghyun Park

  • Most expect prefs to be in policy crosshairs soon—watch for tighter rules on dividends, discounts, and liquidity, plus likely incentives for redemption or cancellation ahead of commons.
  • If Korea rolls out a pref stock overhaul, long-biased rerate plays could pop—focus on liquid, high-yield large-cap prefs trading at 35%+, yield north of 3%, and solid daily turnover.
  • Korea Inv, Kumho Petro, CJ Cheil, CJ Corp prefs already screen well; Doosan and Hanwha 3PB could join if dividend hikes materialize on back of strong sub earnings.

Merger Arb Mondays (28 Jul) – Shibaura, Abacus Storage, Insignia, Mayne, Santos, ENN, Smart Share

By Arun George

[Japan M&A] Pacific Industrial (7250) MBO Officially Being Done Dirt Cheap

By Travis Lundy

  • The MBO for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) starts with the father+son Chairman and CEO, – combined stake 2.92% – putting nothing in to buy this, with help from banks.
  • The Takeover Price is priced at 0.7x book, and a Net Debt to EBITDA of 2x (when adjusted for securities+pension assets+DTLs) and 5-6x average 2026-2030 FCF.
  • This is being done too cheap: Toyota is the main customer, one third of revenues comes from Japan, and the company is set for a transition to EVs.

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Ahead of the Bank of Japan’s 31 July 2025 policy meeting, markets broadly expect rates to remain on hold at 0.5%.
  • The new US–Japan trade deal may influence the tone of the upcoming quarterly outlook—if not the rate decision itself.
  • With limited precedent for rate changes but a high rate of surprises when they do occur, this Insight combines historical data with option-implied volatility to help investors assess tail risks.

Ainsworth (AGI AU): A Dicey Scheme Vote Underwritten by an Alternative Takeover Offer

By Arun George

  • The Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU) IE considers Novomatic’s A$1.00 to be fair and reasonable, as it falls within its A$0.93-1.07 valuation range. The vote is on 29 August.
  • The offer has drawn opposition from several notable shareholders. There remains at least a 50% chance that the scheme vote fails.  
  • Novomatic can switch to an alternative takeover offer, which limits the downside risk. At the last close and for a 26 September payment, the gross/annualised spread was 1.5%/8.2%.  

Weekly Update (AAF, NLOP, KHC)

By Richard Howe

  • Kraft Heinz (KHC) is currently evaluating a plan to spin off a significant portion of its grocery business into a new, distinct entity. The WSJ reported that this transaction is likely to occur.

  • The news comes a decade after the infamous merger of two of the biggest names in packaged foods that was orchestrated by Warren Buffett and Brazilian private equity firm 3G Capital Partners.

  • This new entity, which can be referred to as “SpinCo,” would encompass many of the traditional Kraft products. The remaining company, or “RemainCo,” would strategically focus its operations on faster-growing segments, specifically sauces, spreads, and condiments.

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Jul 28
0

Daily Brief Macro: The Month Ahead: Key Events in August 2025 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • The Month Ahead: Key Events in August 2025
  • Fresh Highs = Bullish Tape
  • Tariffs: Bark Worse Than Bite?

The Month Ahead: Key Events in August 2025

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: Central Bank rate decisions, index changes and political events can move markets and affect volatility. Exchange holidays and option expiration schedules might influence liquidity on these days.
  • Highlights: Earnings season keeps several regional markets busy through early to mid-August. Meanwhile, three central banks in the region are scheduled to hold monetary policy meetings spaced across the month.
  • Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.

Fresh Highs = Bullish Tape

By Cam Hui

  • The U.S. market is exhibiting a strong broad-based recovery that’s appears to be global in scope.
  • A leadership rotation appears to be underway from growth to value and cyclical stocks, which would be a welcome sign of broader participation in the rally.
  • The main risk to our bullish scenario is a failure in factor and sector rotation. This is consistent with our scenario of a market stall during the August–September time frame.

Tariffs: Bark Worse Than Bite?

By Cam Hui

  • Q2 earnings season was supposed to be a key test of how the Trump tariffs would affect corporate earnings and margins. So far, the preliminary verdict has been relatively benign.
  • We believe the consensus expectation of stagflation, below-average growth and higher-than-expected inflation is the correct scenario.
  • The full effects of tariffs on inflation and growth will start to be seen in Q3 2025 and continue into 2026.

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Jul 28
0

Daily Brief Australia: Hub24 Ltd, Ainsworth Game Technology, Domain Holdings Australia and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (28 Jul)
  • Ainsworth (AGI AU): A Dicey Scheme Vote Underwritten by an Alternative Takeover Offer
  • Domain Holdings Australia Ltd – The Monday Report – 28 July 2025

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (28 Jul)

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
  • Highlight: Currently five pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist.
  • Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

Ainsworth (AGI AU): A Dicey Scheme Vote Underwritten by an Alternative Takeover Offer

By Arun George

  • The Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU) IE considers Novomatic’s A$1.00 to be fair and reasonable, as it falls within its A$0.93-1.07 valuation range. The vote is on 29 August.
  • The offer has drawn opposition from several notable shareholders. There remains at least a 50% chance that the scheme vote fails.  
  • Novomatic can switch to an alternative takeover offer, which limits the downside risk. At the last close and for a 26 September payment, the gross/annualised spread was 1.5%/8.2%.  

Domain Holdings Australia Ltd – The Monday Report – 28 July 2025

By FNArena

  • Trade deals, central bank meetings, earnings season (US & Europe) with first local releases later in the week, as well as the all-important June quarter CPI print domestically will set the mood and tone for the ASX200 this week.
  • ASX200 futures are pointing to a slightly weaker start, but the overnight, EU-US trade deal may boost sentiment.

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Jul 28
0

Daily Brief India: Swiggy and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Swiggy/Eternal: Free Float Increase & Foreign Room Decrease ‘Delivering’ BIG Passive Flows

Swiggy/Eternal: Free Float Increase & Foreign Room Decrease ‘Delivering’ BIG Passive Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • Increased free float should result in passives buying Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) and lower foreign room should lead to passives selling Eternal (ETERNAL IN) at the end of August.
  • The increased free float should also result in passive buying for Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) in September.
  • Eternal has outperformed Swiggy last week following strong earnings. Swiggy announces earnings later this week and that could be a short-term catalyst for a narrowing of the spread.

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Jul 28
0

Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, Shoulder Innovations, Kraft Heinz Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Intel (INTC.US): 18A May Have Been Too Rushed; Now All Hopes Rest on 14A.
  • Shoulder Innovations IPO (SI.US): Expect Upside Vs. IPO Price Due To Superior Growth Profile
  • Intel Q225. GM Obfuscation, Red Flags & 14A Now Officially A Risk Factor
  • Weekly Update (AAF, NLOP, KHC)

Intel (INTC.US): 18A May Have Been Too Rushed; Now All Hopes Rest on 14A.

By Patrick Liao

  • On July 24, chip giant Intel announced that its latest 18A advanced process is progressing smoothly. However, the next-generation 14A process will be developed “based on confirmed customer commitments.”
  • Apple (AAPL US) adopt Intel’s 14A process for its future M-series chips, while NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is expected to use the same process for its entry-level gaming GPUs.
  • U.S. President Trump is imposing tariffs on countries around the world, which is indirectly pressuring some manufacturers to accelerate the establishment of U.S.-based production facilities.

Shoulder Innovations IPO (SI.US): Expect Upside Vs. IPO Price Due To Superior Growth Profile

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Shoulder Innovations Inc., a pure-play shoulder arthroplasty device company, is expected to IPO soon. 
  • The company’s amended S-1 puts the initial price range per share at $19.00 to $21.00, implying a market cap of ~$450M at midpoint on a fully-diluted basis.  
  • I have a positive view of Shoulder Innovations IPO and see upside vs. IPO price due to the company’s superior growth profile, industry-leading gross margins and capital efficient technology.

Intel Q225. GM Obfuscation, Red Flags & 14A Now Officially A Risk Factor

By William Keating

  • Intel reported Q225 revenues of $12.9 billion, up $200 million QoQ, flat YoY but $1.1 billion above the guided midpoint. After that revenue beat, things went downhill from there.
  • CEO Lip Bu Tan said he will review and approve all future company product designs prior to tape out. Sounds like a vote of no confidence in the design team.
  • Intel’s 10 Q now lists the possibility of pausing or abandoning 14A as a risk factor with doomsday details about the implications for the company

Weekly Update (AAF, NLOP, KHC)

By Richard Howe

  • Kraft Heinz (KHC) is currently evaluating a plan to spin off a significant portion of its grocery business into a new, distinct entity. The WSJ reported that this transaction is likely to occur.

  • The news comes a decade after the infamous merger of two of the biggest names in packaged foods that was orchestrated by Warren Buffett and Brazilian private equity firm 3G Capital Partners.

  • This new entity, which can be referred to as “SpinCo,” would encompass many of the traditional Kraft products. The remaining company, or “RemainCo,” would strategically focus its operations on faster-growing segments, specifically sauces, spreads, and condiments.

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