Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• Japanese banks have been in a relative sweetspot for a couple of years. Higher rates, higher inflation, more FX volatility, better earnings, stronger buybacks. Cross-holding sales up but not spectacular.
• The BOJ may raise rates but Trump Tariff retaliation/mitigation is a question. Elections the next two weeks and earnings the 2-3 weeks after that may keep things a question. 
• But buybacks should pick up. Lots announced in spring end at or before Q1 earnings. And I expect substantial new buybacks to be announced throughout the from Q1 results on.

• After OCBC bumped terms for Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) to $30.15/share via an Exit Offer, I wasn’t confident a 17.8% bump would dislodge Palliser. That appears the case.
• At today’s EGM, 63.49% of minority shareholders  – OCBC abstained – were in favour on the Offer, falling short of the 75% condition. There was no blocking % condition. 
• Shareholders voted for the resumption of shares via the issuance of shares (one-for-one bonus), satisfying the SGX free float requirement.  The SGX, and dissenters, will be happy with the outcome. 

• The Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) delisting resolution failed as it was not approved by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders.
• The resumption of trading resolutions to restore the 10% free float requirement was passed. Trading will resume once the 10% free float requirement is met. 
• Minorities have secured a pyrrhic victory as the OCBC (OCBC SP) offer was light, but there is no obvious catalyst to re-rate the shares. Deal break price around S$21.49.

• Context: The Bank of Korea will announce its rate decision on July 10, 2025. This Insight compares market and option-implied expectations with historical KOSPI 200 reactions.
• Highlights: While average market reactions to BoK moves are historically muted, options are pricing in elevated volatility. Two event-driven strategies are discussed.
• Why Read: This Insight offers actionable, volatility-focused options strategies grounded in empirical data and current pricing—timely for traders seeking to monetize elevated volatility ahead of central bank and geopolitical events.

• Market participants should look at a bigger picture view of positioning in US equities, rather than narrow metrics like IMM or market participants only
• European countries, as well as Canada and Australia, are large holders of US equities, with pension funds being major players
• Australian pension funds have over 800 billion in US equities, with a flow rate of 1.2% of GDP going into foreign equities, and have low FX hedge ratios which could be raised in the future

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• National Securities Depository Limited/NSDL (NSDL IN) is the largest depository in India. It is seeking to raise US$400 million.     
• The depository market in India is a duopoly with high barriers to entry as each of the current depositories is promoted by large institutions.
• The bull case rests on outperforming its key peer on several metrics, the core business’s solid performance, signs of margin recovery, cash generation, and no debt.  

• Industrivärden’s NAV reached SEK 165.6 billion in H1 2025, up 4%, while C shares delivered a flat return and now trade at a 9.7% discount to NAV—below historical levels.
• The portfolio is highly concentrated, with 91% of NAV in five stocks: Volvo, Sandvik, Handelsbanken, Essity, and SCA—making it easily replicable but sensitive to industrial sector cycles.
• Management costs remain ultra-low at 0.08% of AUM, while net debt is just 2% of the portfolio. Credit quality is strong (A+/Stable), and dividends from holdings totaled SEK 9.4 billion.

• In August 2024, Klaytn (backed by South Korea’s Kakao) and Finschia (developed by Japan’s LINE Tech Plus) merged to form the Kaia chain, a Layer 1 blockchain aimed at becoming Asia’s leading Web3 ecosystem.
• LINE, the leading messaging app in Japan, Thailand, and Taiwan, boasts approximately 200 million high-value monthly active users, with over 80% penetration in key markets, and is partnering with Kaia to deliver a rich Web3 experience on its platform.
• The key initiative of the Kaia-LINE NEXT partnership to onboard users from Web2 to Web3 is the Mini Dapp ecosystem, which mirrors the Telegram-TON partnership’s Game-Token-DeFi strategy, with the Kaia foundation driving developer engagement.

• Revenue increased by 14.6% YoY to JPY66.1bn, with operating profit rising 18.1% YoY to JPY17.6bn.
• The company revised its full-year forecast, lowering revenue by 3.9% but raising operating profit by 4.7%.
• Assets under management reached JPY2.67tn, exceeding fiscal year-end targets, driven by new asset management contracts.

• After a longer wait than planned, Chesnara has announced a large acquisition, HSBC Life (UK).
• At a cost of £260m, it is over 70% of Chesnara’s pre-announcement market capitalisation and will be funded by a mixture of equity, existing cash resources (primarily from the earlier Tier 2 bond issue) and drawing down from a newly increased revolving credit facility.
• The rights issue should complete by 23 July 2025, with deal completion in early 2026.