Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK), a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, now aims to raise around US$500m in its HK IPO.
• FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia.
• We looked at the company’s 2018-21 performance in our past notes. In this note, we will talk about the updates since then.

• Metaplanet has raised over $500 million via stock acquisition rights, using proceeds to repay short-term bonds and expand its Bitcoin holdings.
• Evo Fund, the main financier, has exercised 54 million shares and likely profited over $100 million through a share borrowing arrangement and market arbitrage.
• A $5 billion capital injection into its U.S. subsidiary hints at potential U.S listing (?), with an EGM scheduled for September to clarify strategic direction.

• In December 2021, buy-now, pay-later outfit humm (HUM AU) announced approaches from third parties to acquire all/part of the company. This was discussed in BNPL Play Hummgroup Fields Proposals. 
• Six months later, a proposed sale of Humm Consumer Finance business to Latitude (LFS AU) was terminated, before the scheduled vote, due to opposition from founder/chairman Andrew Abercrombie. 
• Now the Abercrombie Group (TAG), the family office of Andrew Abercrombie, has tabled a A$0.58/share non-binding Offer, in cash, by way of a Scheme. Abercrombie hold 26.6%.

• Humm Group (HUM AU) disclosed a non-binding proposal from The Abercrombie Group at A$0.58, a 34.9% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.43 (23 June).
• The Board has granted a four-week due diligence period. The offer is unattractive on several metrics.
• Unsurprisingly, retail is strongly opposed to the low-ball offer. The Board should negotiate for better terms.   

• As reported by Brian Freitas and Janaghan Jeyakumar, there are potential methodology changes for the S&P/ASX family of indices in sight, read their insights for more details.
• If approved, the changes could take effect with the September index review and could bring in signficant reshaping for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).
• In our previous insight on June 9th we signaled how the ASX 200 was overbought. The index close last week down. This insight discusses our new forecast and outlook.

• Sabadell trades above the implied offer value, signaling investor expectations of a revised bid or deal failure.
• Government-Imposed integration freeze severely impairs BBVA’s ability to realize synergies.
• Political dependence on Catalan nationalist parties complicates execution despite formal regulatory clearance.

• After the market close on 25 June, Affinity Equity Partners sold all of its 1.94% stake (9.742 million shares) in Shinhan Financial (055550 KS) in a block deal sale.
• It was reported that the sale was made at around 59,475 won to 59,780 won, a 2.0-2.5% discount from the previous day’s closing price of 61,000 won.
• This block deal sale of 1.9% stake in Shinhan could be viewed negatively as Affinity has decided to sell the shares at current levels rather than waiting for further upside.

• Context: The Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN) vs. UCO Bank (UCO IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long UCO Bank (UCO IN) and short Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN) based on statistical mean reversion, with UCO Bank supported by cheaper valuations.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• US Treasury yields declined 4-5 bps across the curve yesterday, on account of softer-than-expected consumer confidence data and amid Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s cautious remarks on rate cuts.
• The yield on the 2Y UST declined 4 bps to 3.83%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 5 bps to 4.30%.
• Equities rallied on easing tensions in the Middle East, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively.

LAMDA Development is the largest mall owner and operator in Greece and is currently developing The Ellinikon, Europe’s biggest urban regeneration project. LAMDA’s core mall portfolio will expand to six developments, plus two existing yacht marinas with a third marina expected to be operational in 2028–29. The cash flows from the core operations support the development of the ambitious Ellinikon project, which aims to become a value-creating ‘city within a city’ by 2037 as LAMDA builds out the two development phases. We value the existing mall and marina operations plus Phase 1 at c €12.30 per share. In addition, investors can take further comfort in the potential value of the post-Phase 1 (PP1) developments, which we have valued at €9.30 per share.