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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Health Care: Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Xiamen Amoytop Biotech Co Ltd, Tempus AI, Mira Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Henlius (2696 HK): This Should Trade Tighter. Get Involved
  • Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Mar25: Multiple Changes, Large Flows; High-Impact Trade Idea
  • Tempus AI: Initiation Of Coverage – Expansion in Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) Testing & 4 Other Factors That Could Shape Its Future! – Major Drivers
  • MIRA: IND Application Submitted to FDA


Henlius (2696 HK): This Should Trade Tighter. Get Involved

By David Blennerhassett


Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Mar25: Multiple Changes, Large Flows; High-Impact Trade Idea

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
  • In this insight, we look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR50/STAR100 indices for the March 2025 index rebal event and suggest a high impact trade idea.

Tempus AI: Initiation Of Coverage – Expansion in Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) Testing & 4 Other Factors That Could Shape Its Future! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Tempus AI reported its third-quarter 2024 financial results, reflecting positive revenue growth but continuing to face profitability challenges.
  • Revenue rose by 33%, reaching $180.9 million, driven by growth in the Genomics and Data and Services segments.
  • Notably, the Genomics unit growth accelerated to 23.9%, which shows a significant uptick from the previous quarter.

MIRA: IND Application Submitted to FDA

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • MIRA Pharmaceuticals(MIRA) Company Sponsored Research Report

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Daily Brief Industrials: Shanghai Electric Group Company, SAMSUNG KODEX KOREA Value-Up ETF, IGI (India) Limited, BOC Aviation, UBTech Robotics, Berli Jucker, Aker Horizons ASA, Iino Kaiun Kaisha, MillerKnoll, Amaero International Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 25: ~US$5.9bn Collective One-Way Flows
  • Korea FSC’s Stabilization Fund: Breaking Down the Buzz and Flow Impact
  • IGI (India) IPO Trading – Decent Anchor and Strong Overall Demand
  • BOC Aviation (2588 HK): Lease Rate Surge to Boost Earnings; Undervalued Stock with 4.5% Div Yield
  • UBTech Robotics US$1.9bn Lockup Expiry – Needs Some Selling to Improve Its Liquidity
  • Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Big C on the Turn
  • Aker Carbon Capture: Discount to NAV, Potential Capital Return, and Aker Horizons’ Debt Challenges
  • IINO KAIUN KAISHA, LTD. (9119 JP): Research update
  • MillerKnoll, Inc – 2QFY25 Adj. EPS $0.55
  • Amaero International Ltd – More milestones met, moving closer to commercialisation


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 25: ~US$5.9bn Collective One-Way Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
  • Currently, we see 6 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

Korea FSC’s Stabilization Fund: Breaking Down the Buzz and Flow Impact

By Sanghyun Park

  • With the Fed shock pushing the won past 1,450 and the KOSPI down, it’s time to dig into the stabilization fund—its size, timing, and which stocks will catch the flow.
  • With ₩10T in play, even spread over 10 stages, it could drive significant price impact. NPS’s ₩1.5T injection in December shows how even smaller flows move the market.
  • The FSC plans to focus on KOSPI 200 and broad market ETFs, with new ETFs like the Value-Up Index likely getting more flow—target stocks in both for bigger impact.

IGI (India) IPO Trading – Decent Anchor and Strong Overall Demand

By Sumeet Singh

  • International Gemmological Institute (India) raised around US$500m in its India IPO. 
  • IGI India is part of the International Gemmological Institute (IGI) group. As of 22nd August 2024, IGI India handled operations of the IGI business in India and Türkiye.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and IPO valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

BOC Aviation (2588 HK): Lease Rate Surge to Boost Earnings; Undervalued Stock with 4.5% Div Yield

By John Liu

  • Global aviation supply continues to suffer from various supply chain disruptions, driving up lease rates and aircraft values and benefiting aircraft lessors, such as BOC Aviation (BOCA) 
  • Although BOCA’s interim results were disappointing due to delayed aircraft deliveries, I expect its momentum to recover in 2025, driven by incoming aircraft and lower interest costs. 
  • Stock is trading at 0.9x PB, nearing its historical trough of 0.8x, and offering a decent 5% dividend yield.

UBTech Robotics US$1.9bn Lockup Expiry – Needs Some Selling to Improve Its Liquidity

By Clarence Chu

  • UBTech Robotics (9880 HK) was listed in Hong Kong on 29th Dec 2023 after it raised US$130m. Its one-year lockup will expire on 28th Dec 2024.
  • UBTech Robotics is engaged in artificial intelligence (AI)-empowered robotics in China, dedicated to the innovation of humanoid robots and development and sales of smart service robotic solutions.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Big C on the Turn

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Berli Jucker (BJC TB) has started to see better performance from Big C SSSG from 3Q2024, with strong performance in October and November, with an expected strong finish to FY2024. 
  • The company continues to focus on expanding its fresh food offering, introducing more private labels into its modern retail segment, and using AI to improve logistics performance. 
  • Berli Jucker‘s packaging business is benefitting from raw material lower input costs coupled with active hedging as well as a switch to Aluminium cans from PET. Valuations remain attractive. 

Aker Carbon Capture: Discount to NAV, Potential Capital Return, and Aker Horizons’ Debt Challenges

By Dalius Tauraitis

  • Aker Carbon Capture (ACC) trades at a 21% discount to net cash, with a market cap of NOK 3.6bn versus NOK 4.6bn cash.
  • Aker Horizons, ACC’s parent, faces liquidity challenges with NOK 6.1bn debt due by early 2026 and limited cash reserves.
  • ACC’s potential capital return announcement could narrow the discount to NAV, with risks of minority shareholder dilution.

IINO KAIUN KAISHA, LTD. (9119 JP): Research update

By Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK

  • FY24 OP WAS REVISED DOWN GIVEN SURGING VARIOUS COSTS.
  • NO CHANGE IN MEDIUM-TERM PLAN TARGETS.
  • IINO revised its FY24 guidance from OP of ¥19,200mil (+0.7% YoY) on sales of ¥145,000mil (+5.1% YoY) to OP of ¥17,400mil (-8.7% YoY) on sales of ¥146,000mil (+5.8%YoY).

MillerKnoll, Inc – 2QFY25 Adj. EPS $0.55

By Water Tower Research

  • MLKN bettered our expectations for revenue (+$15 million versus our estimate) and adjusted EPS (+$0.03 versus our estimate) even as industry conditions remained challenged.
  • Gross margin, down 33 bps to 38.8%, was affected by product mix, while the 81-bp decline in operating margin to 7.1% was due to higher variable and compensation expenses andthe need to ‘preload’ marketing expense in Global Retail even as the calendar split the critical holiday/cyber promotional period between 2Q and 3Q.
  • Americas Contract and Global Retail posted solid quarters amid industry headwinds, while International Contract demand (typically more variable) was down.


Amaero International Ltd – More milestones met, moving closer to commercialisation

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has published a flash comment on advanced materials manufacturing group Amaero International (ASX:3DA) following the company’s recent announcements that it has ordered its third EIGA and that it has secured Aerospace Quality Management System AS9100D accreditation for the Tennessee facility for the manufacturing and testing of metal powder and PM-HIP production, both important milestones on the path to commercialisation.
  • We have already incorporated the company’s capex guidance in our forecasts so do not anticipate any change to our estimates from these announcements.
  • Our base-case DCF valuation is $1.16/share, fully diluted, which represents potential capital upside of 346%.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: CPMC Holdings, KCP Ltd, Crude Oil, Gulf Marine Services PLC, Vista Energy SAB de CV, Sealed Air Corp, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Zephyr Energy, Akzo Nobel NV, Condor Energies and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • CPMC (906 HK): Tendering Now Open
  • The Beat Ideas: KCP Limited- Cement Business Undervaluation
  • [ETP 2024/51] Fed’s Hawkish Tone Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Soars on Rising LNG Exports
  • Gulf Marine Services Plc (GMS LN) – Thursday, Sep 19, 2024
  • New Issue Snapshot: Vista Energy
  • Sealed Air Corp (SEE) – Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024
  • India’s Tire Exports Surge Amid R&D, Manufacturing Boost
  • Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): Funding secured for the Paradox
  • What’s News in Amsterdam – 19 December 2024 (AkzoNobel | Unilever | InPost)
  • Condor Energies Inc. (TSX: CDR): Further Production Increase in Uzbekistan


CPMC (906 HK): Tendering Now Open

By David Blennerhassett

  • At a 1.5% gross spread to terms, CPMC Holdings (906 HK) is trading with completion is mind after the last pre-condition – SAFE – was satisfied on the 13th December
  • The Offer Doc is now out and the transaction is open for acceptances. The First Close is the 10th January. 
  • I’d expect this deal to turn unconditional on or before the First Close, with payment around the 20th January.  

The Beat Ideas: KCP Limited- Cement Business Undervaluation

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • KCP Ltd (KCPL IN) is available at a significant discount due to underperformance and margin deterioration.
  • The sugar sector is performing well due to higher realization and higher sugar cultivation. 
  • The company is poised for a high valuation if it demerges or sale its cement business, which is a big drag in the overall valuation. 

[ETP 2024/51] Fed’s Hawkish Tone Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Soars on Rising LNG Exports

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 13/Dec, US crude inventories fell by 0.9m barrels, missing forecasts. Gasoline stocks rose more than anticipated, while distillate inventories declined more than expected.
  • US natural gas inventories fell by 125 Bcf for the week ending 13/Dec, beating analyst expectations of a 123 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 3.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.
  • Major analysts lowered their 12-month PTs on Exxon, SLB, Halliburton, and Occidental. Also, Barclays downgraded its rating on Halliburton to Equalweight from Overweight.

Gulf Marine Services Plc (GMS LN) – Thursday, Sep 19, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Gulf Marine Services provides support vessels to the oil & gas industry in the Middle East
  • The company serves clients such as ADNOC and ARAMCO for platform operations and maintenance work
  • Strong connections with ADNOC and cost-effective vessels offer potential for significant growth

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


New Issue Snapshot: Vista Energy

By Leandro Gubler

  • We are initiating coverage on Vista with an Outperform recommendation. We view Vista as an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to Argentina’s energy sector.
  • Vista boasts a robust financial and business risk profile, supported by strong credit metrics, solid profitability, and its leadership position in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale formation.
  • Vista is exposed to fewer sovereign and political risks than YPF, and its unique growth opportunity adds to its appeal.

Sealed Air Corp (SEE) – Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Sealed Air is undervalued and poised for a turnaround, with a price target of $49 per share
  • The Protective segment has been underperforming due to ties to the PC market and economic indicators
  • Sum-of-parts valuation method used, with different multiples applied to Protective and Food segments, indicating significant upside potential

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


India’s Tire Exports Surge Amid R&D, Manufacturing Boost

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • FY 2024-25 H1 witnesses 12% YoY growth in tire exports value 
  • Motorcycle tire exports volume up by 37%; Columbia largest importer 
  • Bridgestone to invest US$85 million for India expansion 

Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): Funding secured for the Paradox

By Auctus Advisors

  • Zephyr has now entered into binding documentation to fully-fund all expected drilling, completion and production test costs for the 5,500 ft extension and acidization of the State 36-2R well.
  • The funding has increased to US$7.5 mm (US$7.0 mm previously).
  • In return, the funding partner will earn a 50% WI in the well.

What’s News in Amsterdam – 19 December 2024 (AkzoNobel | Unilever | InPost)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • AkzoNobel | three potential bidders for Akzo Nobel India • Unilever | agreement to sell Unox and Zwan to Zwanenberg Food Group • InPost | beats Polish peers with cut-off moment for Christmas Eve delivery

Condor Energies Inc. (TSX: CDR): Further Production Increase in Uzbekistan

By Auctus Advisors

  • Production in Uzbekistan in December to date has averaged 11,354 boe/d.
  • Adjusting for one day of shutdown implies a production capacity of almost 12 mboe/d.
  • The average production in December to date (11,354 boe/d) represents an increase of over 600 boe/d compared to the latest announcement (10,706 boe/d from 5 November to 11 November) and 1,344 boe/d compared to the 3Q24 average production.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Kadokawa, Shimano Inc, Beenos Inc, Samyang Foods, Bloks Group, Nextage Co Ltd, LG Electronics India, PDD Holdings, CP Axtra , Industria De Diseno Textil SA and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Sony To Buy 7+% Stake in Kadokawa (9468 JP) For ¥50bn, Ending Near-Term Hopes of Takeover
  • Shimano: An Opportunity for Activist Investors
  • LY Corp (4689) Announces Takeover of Beenos (3328) – Lightish at ¥4,000 But A Done Deal
  • LS Electric, Then Hyundai Rotem, Now Samyang Foods and Hyundai Mipo: Same Proactive Flow?
  • Bloks Group IPO: Just a Traditional Toy Company in Red Ocean Market
  • Nextage (3186) – Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024
  • LG Electronics India IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Temu Suffers First Big Setback as Vietnam Suspends Its Operations
  • CP AXTRA (CPAXTRA TB) – Governance Concerns over Property Investment
  • Inditex: Fast Fashion – [Business Breakdowns, EP.196]


Sony To Buy 7+% Stake in Kadokawa (9468 JP) For ¥50bn, Ending Near-Term Hopes of Takeover

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Kadokawa (9468 JP) announced it would sell ¥50bn of shares to Sony (6758 JP) in a 3rd Party Allotment to cement a Strategic/Capital Alliance. Sony will own 10% at ¥4,146/share.
  • 40% of proceeds is to “create and develop new IP”, 60% is to “enhance global IP distribution”; both over 5yrs. Given ¥108bn of net cash/securities, this is a garbage reason. 
  • Kadokawa shares have gained 44% in a month since Reuters carried an “Exclusive” article saying Sony was in talks to acquire Kadokawa. This is defensive entrenchment. The result will disappoint.

Shimano: An Opportunity for Activist Investors

By Mark Chadwick

  • Shimano, the Japanese maker of bicycle components and fishing equipment, is in need of a strategic gear change
  • A significant -25% decline in FY23 net sales highlights Shimano’s struggles. Revenues dropped a further -11% in the first nine months of 2024
  • For investors seeking opportunity at the bottom of the cycle, Shimano presents a compelling case. The stock is trading at 2.3x book value

LY Corp (4689) Announces Takeover of Beenos (3328) – Lightish at ¥4,000 But A Done Deal

By Travis Lundy

  • Early today, the Nikkei had an article saying LY (4689 JP) would launch a takeover of Beenos Inc (3328 JP). The stock went limit up. Shorts are many times ADV. 
  • Post-Close, we get a deal much as implied by the Nikkei article. It seems light to me but the top three holders have agreed to the deal.
  • Regulatory will take a couple of months. This will likely fall tomorrow. If you are a long-only fund holder, think about the alternatives (read the conclusions here).

LS Electric, Then Hyundai Rotem, Now Samyang Foods and Hyundai Mipo: Same Proactive Flow?

By Sanghyun Park

  • Local hedge funds, mainly prop traders and PEs, drove the price action in LS Electric and Hyundai Rotem, and are now leading net buying in Samyang Foods and Hyundai Mipo.
  • Given the setup, it’s likely Samyang Foods and HD Hyundai Mipo will follow a similar move until mid-January when screening starts, so we should stay aware of this backdrop.
  • This gives us a chance to capture upside. Plus, since Samyang Foods and Hyundai Mipo may pull back 30-40% post-screening, there’s also a solid opportunity during that dip.

Bloks Group IPO: Just a Traditional Toy Company in Red Ocean Market

By John Liu

  • Bloks Group, founded in 2014, is China’s top assembly character toy company, targetting primiary school students.
  • Bloks faces competition from multiple domestic competitors in a slow growing market. The company’s aggressive market expanison in the past 2 years has come at a significant cost .
  • The IPO valuation may be high, considering the industry’s low barriers to entry and the company’s unstainable growth.

Nextage (3186) – Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Nextage is a prominent player in Japan’s fragmented used car dealer market
  • The company is looking to grow through suburban superstores, similar to CarMax in the US
  • Despite recent scandal involving competitors, Nextage is positioned for growth with potential for expansion in Japan’s used vehicle market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


LG Electronics India IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of LG Electronics India is implied market cap of 1,256 billion INR or US$14.7 billion.
  • Several media accounts have mentioned that LGEI could be targeting a valuation of about US$13 billion to US$15 billion.
  • LGEI’s valuation would need to be about US$13 billion or less in order for us to be Bullish on this IPO. 

Temu Suffers First Big Setback as Vietnam Suspends Its Operations

By Caixin Global

  • Temu, the Chinese cross-border e-commerce platform owned by PDD Holdings Inc. has suffered its first major setback since launching in 2022 after Vietnam banned its operations citing regulatory non-compliance only two months after it entered the market.
  • Temu was ordered by the Ministry of Industry and Trade to stop using the Vietnamese language on its website and app, to notify customers that its e-commerce registration was under review, and to halt all marketing activities in the country, according to a report by Vietnam News Agency on Dec.
  • The suspension is Temu’s first since expanding into more than 80 countries around the world.

CP AXTRA (CPAXTRA TB) – Governance Concerns over Property Investment

By Angus Mackintosh

  • CP Axtra (CPAXT TB) has seen a heavy impact on its share price following an announcement it would invest THB12-15bn in a mixed-use property project with a related party. 
  • Investing in malls is part of CP Axtra’s business although its major focus is on its retail business which includes wholesale under Makro and its Lotus hypermarket and supermarket businesses.  
  • The sell-off looks overdone but has been clouded by the sale of shares in parent CP ALL by its vice-chairman ahead of the announcement raising further governance concerns. 

Inditex: Fast Fashion – [Business Breakdowns, EP.196]

By Business Breakdowns

  • Inditex’s success in fast fashion industry is attributed to vertical integration and decentralized decision making
  • Alistair Whittet from Acus Partners discusses Inditex’s pivots and success in the fast fashion industry
  • Inditex’s vertical integration and decentralized decision-making have been crucial to their success

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 13th):SEM and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 13th):SEM, KT&G, Samsung C&T


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 13th):SEM, KT&G, Samsung C&T

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Dec 13th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD3.7bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in SEM, KT&G, Samsung C&T.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China’s Real Estate Market Showed Beyond-Record Rebound in Year End…Will It Carry to 2025? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • China’s Real Estate Market Showed Beyond-Record Rebound in Year End…Will It Carry to 2025?
  • Invest in China Growth Equity in High-Rate Environment
  • Ohayo Japan | Dow Extends Losing Streak As Fed Cuts by 25bps
  • China Online Game Grossing Monitor: October 10, 2024 – December 16, 2024
  • Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) And Low- Carbon Ethanol “Ready for Takeoff”
  • Biopharma Week in Review – December 16, 2024
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – December 16, 2024
  • WTR Small-Cap Spotlight Recap – Five Cannabis Trends for 2025


China’s Real Estate Market Showed Beyond-Record Rebound in Year End…Will It Carry to 2025?

By Andy Fu

  • After 40 months of consecutive MoM decline, China’s real estate market is on the brink of a somewhat sustained recovery, with particularly, pricing improvement in November;
  • Pricing is important because it entices buyers back to the market. Before that, transaction volumes have already seen meaningful rebound and the rebound has spread from existing to new homes;
  • We maintain our view that China had a moderate property bubble in the tradable housing sector but not the overall housing sector. Long term growth potential is still bright.

Invest in China Growth Equity in High-Rate Environment

By Eric Wen

  • Given Trump’s overhaul of US economy and world trade, US interest rate may stay high and Renminbi might depreciate further, both negative for our sectors from a foreign investor perspective;
  • We expect China to respond strongly to Trump Tariff 2.0, which will necessitate bigger stimulus, leading to a scenario of a policy overdose;
  • We look for: (1) high dividend yield, (2) US-dollar exposure, (3) policy overdose in stock selection. We add TRIP and ATAT to our DMC and reiterate our MMC  portfolios

Ohayo Japan | Dow Extends Losing Streak As Fed Cuts by 25bps

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points as expected but tempered market hopes by reducing its 2025 rate cut forecast from four to two.
  • Heiwa, a pachinko machine maker, announced it will acquire Accordia Golf, Japan’s largest golf course operator, for ¥510 billion
  • Hon Hai Precision Industries, a Taiwanese electronics manufacturer, is interested in acquiring Nissan, potentially complicating Nissan’s integration talks with Honda

China Online Game Grossing Monitor: October 10, 2024 – December 16, 2024

By Stan Zhao

  • <Peacekeeper>’s more aggressive gameplay reforms and monetization changes have delivered better results, leading us to raise its 2024 annualized gross billings estimate slightly.
  • <DnF Mobile>’s new version experienced a slight decline in player retention, though this is likely temporary. As a result, we have slightly lowered its 2024 annualized grossing estimates.
  • NetEase’s <Eggy Party> received player feedback that fell slightly below expectations. The game continues to face considerable pressure for revenue recovery, prompting us to lower our full-year revenue estimate slightly.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) And Low- Carbon Ethanol “Ready for Takeoff”

By Water Tower Research

  • We launched our inaugural WTR Symposium Series “Sustainable Aviation Fuel and Low-Carbon Ethanol Ready for Take-Off” on last week’s WTR Small-Cap Spotlight.
  • We were joined by senior management of four leading companies operating in farm-to-fuel and waste-to-fuel supply chains.
  • Our guests represented the following leading-edge companies: Continuum Ag (CEO Mitchell Hora), Gevo (VP Corporate Development Eric Frey), LanzaTech (CEO Dr. Jennifer Holmgren), and Synata Bio (CEO Tim Cesarek). 

Biopharma Week in Review – December 16, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&A.
  • Last week, PBMs were targeted by Congress, NAMS had a CV outcomes preview, and CADL showed prostate cancer benefit.
  • LLY partnered GLP-1 access with telehealth Ro and presented oral SERD data in breast cancer, rattling HIMS, LFMD, ARVN, and OLMA. 

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – December 16, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • It was a mixed week for furniture and furnishings stocks, as earnings results and company-specific factors seemed to dominate trading for several issuers (LOVE, RH, BYON) while the market waits for the Fed’s next move.
  • The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index was down 3.7%, the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index was down 4.8%, the Home Goods Retailers Index was up 1.3%, and the Mass Retailers Index was down 0.1% for the week, while the large-cap indexes were flat and the R2K was down 2.0%.
  • RH up big after demonstrating market share gains in its latest quarter and accelerating demand trends in the core business. 

WTR Small-Cap Spotlight Recap – Five Cannabis Trends for 2025

By Water Tower Research

  • Rescheduling Is the Single Biggest Catalyst for US Cannabis.
  • It removes the 280E tax burden that prevents US plant-touching operators from deducting ordinary operating expenses, which in many cases doubles the effective tax rate.
  • 280E only applies to Schedule I and II drugs, so the proposed move to Schedule III would remove 280E.

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Daily Brief ECM: Mr DIY Indonesia IPO Trading – Recent Indo Listings Trade with Limited Liquidity and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Mr DIY Indonesia IPO Trading – Recent Indo Listings Trade with Limited Liquidity
  • Travel Food Services Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Bloks Group IPO:  PHIP Updates, Revenue Continues To Post Hyper Growth As IPO Nears
  • Paras Healthcare Pre-IPO: Increasing Efficiency but Patients Are Spending Less
  • Pre-IPO HealthyWay (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention


Mr DIY Indonesia IPO Trading – Recent Indo Listings Trade with Limited Liquidity

By Clarence Chu

  • PT Daya Intiguna Yasa Tbk (Mr DIY Indonesia) (2517930D IJ) raised US$296m from its Indonesia IPO.
  • Mr DIY Indonesia (MRDIYI) is a home improvement retailer. The entity is the Indonesian entity under the Mr DIY group’s list of subsidiaries.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Travel Food Services Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Travel Food Services Ltd (1450229D IN)  (TFS) is planning to raise about US$236m in its upcoming India IPO. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Kotak, HSBC, ICICI, B&K.
  • The company was established in 2009 and operates in the airport travel quick-service restaurant (Travel QSR) and lounge sectors.
  • TFS holds a market share of 24% in the Indian airport travel QSR sector based on revenue for FY24, according to CRISIL Report.

Bloks Group IPO:  PHIP Updates, Revenue Continues To Post Hyper Growth As IPO Nears

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Bloks Group, a founder-led leader in China’s assembly character toy segment, updated its PHIP and continued to post hyper growth.
  • In the nine months ended Sep-24, the company’s revenue totaled ~RMB1629m, representing a y/y growth of ~177%, due to significant increase in product sales volume.
  • According to the most recent PHIP, Ultraman IP license in China was extended to 2027 and TRANSFORMERS IP license with Hasbro will expire only in 2028.

Paras Healthcare Pre-IPO: Increasing Efficiency but Patients Are Spending Less

By Nicholas Tan

  • Paras Healthcare Limited (0490145D IN)  is looking to raise up to US$180m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • It is the fifth largest healthcare provider in India with a core focus on providing affordable and quality, specialized tertiary medical care in Tier 2 and 3 cities.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Pre-IPO HealthyWay (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The two core businesses is corporate and digital marketing services (2B business) and health and medical services (2C business),the synergy of which can form a virtuous cycle within the platform.
  • The key performance driver for HealthWay is 2B business, but the pain point is 2C business, which is hard to scale up. Actually, HealthyWay’s growth momentum has slowed down significantly.
  • After completing the final round of financing, HealthyWay’s valuation reached RMB4.1 billion. We think its valuation could be higher than ClouDr but lower than JD Health and Alibaba Health.

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Vedanta Resources, China Hongqiao, Gajah Tunggal
  • In the US, November advance retail sales came in above estimates at 0.7% m-o-m (0.6% e / 0.5% revised p), bolstered by a jump in car purchases and solid online shopping during Black Friday.
  • That said, retail sales excluding auto slowed to 0.2% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.2% revised p). Separately, November industrial production unexpectedly fell 0.1% m-o-m (0.3% e / -0.4% p), the third straight month of decline, owing to weaker utilities and mining output.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Heiwa (6412) Announces Game-Changing Acquisition and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Heiwa (6412) Announces Game-Changing Acquisition, Gets Very Heavily Levered (Termed Debt)
  • How Has the Index Rebalance Strategy Performed in 2024?
  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Rejection Follows Tanarra’s Lead
  • EQD | NDX OVERSOLD: A High Probability LONG Trade Idea
  • EQD | CSI 300 Stuck in Neutral: Equal Chances to Rally or Drop


Heiwa (6412) Announces Game-Changing Acquisition, Gets Very Heavily Levered (Termed Debt)

By Travis Lundy

  • Heiwa Corp (6412 JP) got 99% of its revenue as a pachinko/pachislot machinery maker. In 2011, it bought one of Japan’s largest golf course operators, PGM Holdings, from Lone Star. 
  • Golf course revenue is up 30% in 10yrs. Pachinko/Pachislot revenue is down by 60+% in the same period. Golf is the bulk of revenue and OP now.
  • Today, the company announced a stunning, even monumental acquisition to become the largest golf course operator in the world. 

How Has the Index Rebalance Strategy Performed in 2024?

By Brian Freitas

  • It has been a decent year for the index rebalance strategy, though there have been some big hiccups along the way.
  • Forecasting the index changes and impacts has been important, but timing (especially momentum/value regime changes) and hedge selection have also been major factors affecting the returns of the strategy.
  • As passive AUM continues to increase, we expect focus on the strategy to continue in 2025 with market players taking different approaches to trading the potential and announced index changes.

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Rejection Follows Tanarra’s Lead

By David Blennerhassett

  • After Tanarra Capital categorically refuted an Australian article alleging Tanarra was supportive of Bain’s Offer, Insignia Financial (IFL AU)‘s board’s response was all-but rubber stamped. 
  • Insignia reckons Bain’s Offer does not represent fair value, and in the “context of a change of control transaction“. 
  • What now – does Bain bump? Tough call in a space where one, possible two deals, may lapse in short succession. 

EQD | NDX OVERSOLD: A High Probability LONG Trade Idea

By Nico Rosti

  • The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) selling lead the index straight into OVERSOLD territory on December 18th.
  • The sell off is overdone, our DAILY NDX model suggests a high probability LONG trade for Thursday.
  • High volatility may affect trades, triggering stops and making it difficult to hold without taking the risk of big losses, Vertical Spreads (Bull PUTs) are a better instrument choice.

EQD | CSI 300 Stuck in Neutral: Equal Chances to Rally or Drop

By Nico Rosti

  • The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 Index) exploded higher in mid-September 2024, then went flat in a range (still there as we write).
  • Our models currently see uptrend and downtrend targets positioned at an equal distance from the last WEEKLY CLose on December 13th.
  • In short this means that the index is “perfectly neutral” at the moment, a rare scenario that requires straddle and strangle-like strategies to be able to profit.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Synopsys Inc.: How Is It Tackling The China Market & Dealing With Macro Uncertainties? – Major Drivers and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Synopsys Inc.: How Is It Tackling The China Market & Dealing With Macro Uncertainties? – Major Drivers
  • General Motors Abruptly Pulls The Plug On Cruise
  • A Comparison of KOSPI 200 and S&P 500 Companies Performances in 2024
  • China New Higher Education (2001 HK): 2.2x PE, 22% Yield, Worth Taking the Risk?
  • Oracle’s Astonishing SaaS Expansion Promises to Catapult Stock Prices! – Major Drivers
  • Bank OZK – Most CRE Loans/Total Loans of Any US Bank & Dramatically Worsening Credit Metrics
  • C3.ai: Will Its Expansion in Federal & Defense Sectors Be A Breakthrough Move? – Major Drivers
  • Adobe Inc.: Strategic Product Tiering & Monetization As A Pivotal Factor Driving Growth! – Major Drivers
  • IMMR: The Business of Profits
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Dec-2024): XPeng, Nio drop Nvidia Thor chip due to delays.


Synopsys Inc.: How Is It Tackling The China Market & Dealing With Macro Uncertainties? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Synopsys reported a strong performance for its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024, achieving record revenue and earnings.
  • The company crossed the $6 billion revenue mark, with a 15% year over-year increase, driven by its strategic focus on high-growth segments like AI, silicon proliferation, and software-defined systems.
  • Synopsys has expanded its bottom line significantly, with EPS growing at a 24% CAGR over the past five years.

General Motors Abruptly Pulls The Plug On Cruise

By William Keating

  • GM announced it will no longer continue to fund its loss making Cruise subsidiary, effectively ending its RoboTaxi ambition. Market reaction? Nothing.
  • Microsoft has already announced it will write off its $800 million investment made back in 2021 when Cruise was valued at $30 billion
  • Root cause? The tsunami that was triggered by Cruise’s botched response to an accident in October 2023. 

A Comparison of KOSPI 200 and S&P 500 Companies Performances in 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • S&P500 is up 27.7% YTD, outperforming KOSPI which is down 6.9% YTD. Global fund flow continues to pour into top quality US stocks such as Palantir, Tesla, and NVIDIA.
  • The top 20 best performing stocks in KOSPI 200 are up on average 106.8% YTD. However, the remaining 180 stocks in KOSPI 200 are down on average 9.2% YTD. 
  • There is no large Palantir-like company that deals with AI/data analytics in Korea. However, large cap IT services and telcos in Korea are increasingly expanding their AI/data analytics related business.

China New Higher Education (2001 HK): 2.2x PE, 22% Yield, Worth Taking the Risk?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China New Higher Education (2001 HK) has rebounded by 40% from its post-result trough but was still down by 34% from the pre-FY24 result level, despite healthy FY24 results.
  • Net profit is healthy, but it is the all-scrip final dividends that dragged on the share price. Concerns are on higher gearing, but at 69.9%, this is still acceptable. 
  • The consensus earnings forecast of a 6% growth in FY25 and FY26 seems not excessive. At 2.2x PER and 22% yield for FY25, it seems worthy of the risks.

Oracle’s Astonishing SaaS Expansion Promises to Catapult Stock Prices! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Oracle Corporation’s recent earnings for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 highlighted a strong performance driven by significant growth in their cloud services segment.
  • Total revenue reached $14.1 billion, reflecting a 9% increase from the previous year, while non-GAAP earnings per share were reported at $1.47, marking a 10% growth year-over-year.
  • Such results slightly surpassed expectations, given the challenging currency fluctuations owing to a strengthening U.S. dollar.

Bank OZK – Most CRE Loans/Total Loans of Any US Bank & Dramatically Worsening Credit Metrics

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Bank OZK (OZK US) has more CRE loans to total loans of any US bank at 72% in 3Q24
  • Risks of CRE loans are real now and historically, they have high loss rates, in bad times
  • The bank is seeing a surge in NPAs , but its credit costs are lagging – make up in 4Q24?

C3.ai: Will Its Expansion in Federal & Defense Sectors Be A Breakthrough Move? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • C3.ai reported its second-quarter fiscal year 2025 results, reflecting a continuation of strong performance with several noteworthy highlights and challenges.
  • The company posted total revenue of $94.3 million, representing a 29% year-over-year increase, which exceeded the high end of their revenue guidance.
  • Notably, subscription revenue rose by 22% to $81.2 million, making up 86% of total revenue, while professional services revenue was $13.2 million.

Adobe Inc.: Strategic Product Tiering & Monetization As A Pivotal Factor Driving Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Adobe’s recent earnings release reflects a period of consistent growth and innovation, demonstrating both strengths and challenges.
  • For the fiscal year 2024, Adobe achieved record revenue of $21.51 billion, marking an 11% year-over-year increase.
  • This growth was fueled by robust performance across its business segments, most notably within its Digital Media and Digital Experience divisions.

IMMR: The Business of Profits

By Hamed Khorsand

  • IMMR reported fiscal Q2 (October) after having changed its fiscal year end to April. IMMR changed its fiscal year end after the purchase of approximately 11 million shares of BNED.  
  • The quarter was continuation of IMMR reporting increased revenue from fixed rate royalties while per unit royalties declined slightly from the prior year.   
  • IMMR reported revenue of $14.1 million compared to our estimate of $10.1 million. We were not expecting a large bump in fixed royalties like IMMR reported in the quarter.  

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Dec-2024): XPeng, Nio drop Nvidia Thor chip due to delays.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • XPeng and Nio abandon Nvidia Thor chip over delays, impacting production schedules and development timelines.
  • Wistron set to establish new plant in Vietnam in 2025, with potential expansion of current facilities, boosting local economy.
  • MSI launches made-in-India notebooks as part of market expansion strategy, tapping into growing demand for tech products in the region.

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