Smartkarma Daily Briefs

The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
We see 3 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event.

D’Alba Global: Financial Investors Could Unload 19% of Shares Once Lockup Ends on 22 June

D’Alba Global has been one of the best performing IPOs in Korea this year. Its share price has risen to 172,5000 won, an increase of 160% from it IPO price.
A total of 19% of outstanding shares of D’Alba Global could start to be sold starting 22 June. That is a lot of shares!
These are likely to put negative pressure on the shares of D’Alba Global. Therefore, we change our view on this company to Negative over the next 6-12 months.

PointsBet (PBH AU): A Headache for Mixi as Betr Switches to a Takeover Offer

By Arun George

BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) has switched its PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) offer to an all-scrip takeover offer at 3.81 BBT shares per PBH share, with a post-offer buyback option at A$1.22.
Betr’s claim that its offer is superior is debatable. Mixi Inc (2121 JP)’s offer is 8.6% above Betr’s at last close prices, and minorities accepting the buyback will be prorated.
Betr’s offer is designed to torpedo Mixi’s scheme and takeover offer. Mixi will need to rethink its terms and likely drop its 50.1% minimum acceptance condition.

Asian Dividend Gems: Septeni Holdings

Septeni Holdings is one of the leaders in Japan in the digital marketing business which mainly includes digital advertising, marketing support, data & AI-driven solutions.
The company has also aggressively raised dividend payouts which is a clear sign of improving corporate governance.
The company is also well positioned to deliver sales growth rate of about 5-7% per year in the next 2-3 years with 20%+ per year growth in operating profit.

Orkla India Ltd. Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

Orkla India Ltd. (OI) is looking to raise about US$300mn in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI, Citi, JPM, and Kotak.
It’s a multi-category Indian food company offering a diverse range of products that cater to every meal occasion, from breakfast and lunch to dinner, snacks and beverages and desserts.
OI was one of the top four companies in terms of revenue from operations among select leading species and convenience foods peers in FY24, as per Technopak Report.

Capri Holdings: An Insight Into Its Strategic Wholesale and Digital Expansion & Other Major Drivers

Capri Holdings Limited’s recent earnings reflect a mix of strategic changes and financial outcomes that should be carefully considered by investors.
The company is in a transitional phase, highlighted by the announcement of the pending sale of Versace to Prada Group.
The decision to divest Versace aims to refocus resources on the Michael Kors and Jimmy Choo brands, with potential benefits of debt reduction and reinstatement of a share repurchase program.

Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd (1607844D IN) (LJML) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are AnandRathi and Equirius.
LJML is a jewellery retailer operating under the brand name “Lalithaa”, offering a range of gold, silver, and diamond jewellery tailored to regional preferences in southern India.
As per the CRISIL Report, the company recorded the highest operating revenue per store among key organised jewellery players in India during FY22-9M25.

Life Time Group Holdings: A Close Look At Its Pricing & Retention Strategy & Other Growth Catalysts!

Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. reported robust financial performance for the first quarter of 2025.
The company achieved total revenue of $706 million, marking an 18.3% increase year-over-year.
This growth was attributed primarily to a 17.9% increase in membership dues and enrollment fees, alongside an 18.7% rise in in-center revenue.

Thule AB: Can the Quad Lock Acquisition Turbocharge Profit Margins Long-Term?

Thule Group AB presented a mixed performance in their recent quarterly earnings report.
The company registered a 10% increase in total sales from the previous year, but faced notable hurdles in North America, where sales declined by 13%.
In contrast, sales in Europe showed stability with marginal growth.

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Jun 21

Daily Brief Australia: PointsBet Holdings , CSL Ltd, Region RE and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

PointsBet (PBH AU): A Headache for Mixi as Betr Switches to a Takeover Offer
CSL Ltd (CSL AU): First In-House Antibody Drug Gets US Approval; Has Blockbuster Potential
Relative Value Opportunity: Region Group (RGN AU) Vs. Waypoint REIT (WPR AU)

PointsBet (PBH AU): A Headache for Mixi as Betr Switches to a Takeover Offer

By Arun George

BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) has switched its PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) offer to an all-scrip takeover offer at 3.81 BBT shares per PBH share, with a post-offer buyback option at A$1.22.
Betr’s claim that its offer is superior is debatable. Mixi Inc (2121 JP)’s offer is 8.6% above Betr’s at last close prices, and minorities accepting the buyback will be prorated.
Betr’s offer is designed to torpedo Mixi’s scheme and takeover offer. Mixi will need to rethink its terms and likely drop its 50.1% minimum acceptance condition.

CSL Ltd (CSL AU): First In-House Antibody Drug Gets US Approval; Has Blockbuster Potential

By Tina Banerjee

CSL Ltd (CSL AU) received FDA approval of Andemry, for prophylactic use to prevent attacks of hereditary angioedema (HAE) in adult and pediatric patients aged 12 years and older.
CSL will launch Andemry in the U.S. immediately, with availability before the end of June. Thus far, Andemry has been approved in Australia, the UK, EU, Japan, Switzerland, and UAE.
With FDA approval, Andembry is now set to compete with Takeda’s blockbuster drug Takhzyro and BioCryst Pharmaceuticals’ oral HAE drug Orladeyo. Andembry has a convenience and efficacy edge over Takhzyro.

Relative Value Opportunity: Region Group (RGN AU) Vs. Waypoint REIT (WPR AU)

By Gaudenz Schneider

The Region Group (RGN AU) vs. Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
The relative value opportunity can be implemented as a long-short pair trade or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
This Insight provides a target return, discusses trade setup, liquidity and risk management strategies.

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Jun 21

Daily Brief South Korea: Samsung Electronics, D’Alba Global, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Fresh Intel on Samsung’s Foundry Spin-Off Plan
D’Alba Global: Financial Investors Could Unload 19% of Shares Once Lockup Ends on 22 June
Korea FSC Plans KRX to Match NXT Trading Hours and Move to T+1 Settlement
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Outlook as Foundry Spin-Off Gains Momentum

Fresh Intel on Samsung’s Foundry Spin-Off Plan

By Sanghyun Park

Insiders say Google’s fast-growing phone biz now overlaps Samsung’s, sparking serious rivalry fears. This “Google shock” has become a major topic among Samsung’s top execs lately.
Sammy’s crisis plan involves carving out System LSI from foundry, with a likely spin-off of the foundry biz as a separate entity—insiders say that’s the favored move now.
Samsung’s restructuring sparks a tug-of-war between shareholder value erosion and foundry re-rating. A spin-off looks likely, with recent stock moves showing investor optimism.

D’Alba Global: Financial Investors Could Unload 19% of Shares Once Lockup Ends on 22 June

D’Alba Global has been one of the best performing IPOs in Korea this year. Its share price has risen to 172,5000 won, an increase of 160% from it IPO price.
A total of 19% of outstanding shares of D’Alba Global could start to be sold starting 22 June. That is a lot of shares!
These are likely to put negative pressure on the shares of D’Alba Global. Therefore, we change our view on this company to Negative over the next 6-12 months.

Korea FSC Plans KRX to Match NXT Trading Hours and Move to T+1 Settlement

By Sanghyun Park

If KRX adopts NXT’s pre- and after-hours fully, liquidity spreads out, weakening gap open plays and shifting focus to large-cap, event-driven LP-driven flows.
With T+1 settlement coming, traders expect settlement pressure to fuel price dislocations—especially in ETF rebalancing and foreign-heavy stocks, where flow and FX risks may drive fresh discounts and volatility.
Though launched pre-new admin, FSC’s plans align with the government’s push to boost KOSPI liquidity, making cancellations unlikely. Expect fast rollout—time to prep trading setups now.

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Outlook as Foundry Spin-Off Gains Momentum

By Nico Rosti

Sanghyun Park has reported in detail about what seems to be going on behind closed doors at Samsung in regard to the foundry spin-off: read his insight – highly recommended.
We maintain our BUY recommendation for Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and although we have not yet seen a strong rally, we see the stock slowly drifting upward from its bottom.
Our short-term tactical perspective covering the next 2–3 weeks is presented in this insight.

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Jun 21

Daily Brief United States: Blackline Inc, Capri Holdings , Life Time Group Holdings, Wesco International, M3-Brigade Acquisition V Corp, Box Inc Class A, Boeing Co, Blackbaud Inc, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc , Blueprint Medicines and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

BlackLine Inc.: Can Its New Platform Pricing Model & Its AI Agents Become Key Growth Catalysts?
Capri Holdings: An Insight Into Its Strategic Wholesale and Digital Expansion & Other Major Drivers
Life Time Group Holdings: A Close Look At Its Pricing & Retention Strategy & Other Growth Catalysts!
WESCO International Powers Utility Rebound with Grid Modernization & Strategic Contracts!
MBAV SPAC: Strategic Sponsor Shift Targets Digital Assets
Box Inc.: Here Are the 7 Key Drivers Shaping Its Performance for 2025 & Beyond!- Major Drivers
Boeing’s Dreamliner Nightmare: Is AI171 the Beginning of the End?
Blackbaud Transforms Revenue Model with Game-Changing 3-Year Contracts; What’s The Revenue Impact?
Cleveland-Cliffs Abandons Weirton Plant—What’s Behind This Bold Pivot?
Blueprint Medicines Targets $2 Billion—Can Soaring AYVAKIT Treatment Rates Make It Happen?

BlackLine Inc.: Can Its New Platform Pricing Model & Its AI Agents Become Key Growth Catalysts?

BlackLine, a leader in financial automation solutions, recently announced its Q1 2025 earnings results, highlighting both opportunities and challenges as the company navigates its ongoing journey towards growth and market expansion.
The company reported a total revenue increase of 6% year-over-year, reaching $167 million, with strong subscription and services revenue performance.
However, the financial results are a mix of positives and certain areas that might require attention.

Capri Holdings: An Insight Into Its Strategic Wholesale and Digital Expansion & Other Major Drivers

Capri Holdings Limited’s recent earnings reflect a mix of strategic changes and financial outcomes that should be carefully considered by investors.
The company is in a transitional phase, highlighted by the announcement of the pending sale of Versace to Prada Group.
The decision to divest Versace aims to refocus resources on the Michael Kors and Jimmy Choo brands, with potential benefits of debt reduction and reinstatement of a share repurchase program.

Life Time Group Holdings: A Close Look At Its Pricing & Retention Strategy & Other Growth Catalysts!

Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. reported robust financial performance for the first quarter of 2025.
The company achieved total revenue of $706 million, marking an 18.3% increase year-over-year.
This growth was attributed primarily to a 17.9% increase in membership dues and enrollment fees, alongside an 18.7% rise in in-center revenue.

WESCO International Powers Utility Rebound with Grid Modernization & Strategic Contracts!

By Special Situation Investments

Wesco International, Inc. presented its first quarter 2025 financial results and outlook and reported a 6% organic sales growth for the first quarter, primarily fueled by a 70% increase in its data center business, along with notable surpluses in their OEM and Broadband segments.
These results exceeded initial forecasts and reflect the company’s ability to capitalize on high-demand areas within technology infrastructure.
The firm achieved a stable gross margin sequentially, a strategic play given potential global tariff impacts.

MBAV SPAC: Strategic Sponsor Shift Targets Digital Assets

MBAV’s sponsor interest was acquired by Tether co-founder Reeve Collins and private equity veteran Chinh Chu at $0.90/unit.
MBAV’s trust account is valued at approximately $10.45/share, with current trading price at $12.65/share.
Cantor Fitzgerald, underwriter of MBAV’s IPO, acquired $37.5m stake and will sell private placement warrants to new sponsor.

Box Inc.: Here Are the 7 Key Drivers Shaping Its Performance for 2025 & Beyond!- Major Drivers

Box, Inc.’s first quarter fiscal 2026 results presented a mixed picture with certain positive takeaways and some potential areas of concern for investors to consider.
The company reported revenue of $276 million, marking a 4% year-over-year increase, or 5% when accounting for constant currency fluctuations.
This indicates steady demand, particularly for its AI-driven solutions like Box AI, which continues to attract customers aiming to transform AI-driven workflows around content.

Boeing’s Dreamliner Nightmare: Is AI171 the Beginning of the End?

The crash of Air India Flight AI171 has jolted the global aviation industry and once again cast a long shadow over Boeing’s safety record.
The Dreamliner, once heralded as a revolutionary leap in aviation technology with a flawless fatality record, now lies at the center of a growing storm.
The flight, a Boeing 787-8 en route to the U.K., crashed shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad, killing 241 of the 242 onboard.

Blackbaud Transforms Revenue Model with Game-Changing 3-Year Contracts; What’s The Revenue Impact?

Blackbaud, Inc. recently reported its first-quarter 2025 financial results, demonstrating a measured performance.
Revenue for the quarter was $271 million, marking 5.8% organic growth.
The company achieved a non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA margin of 34.3% and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.96.

Cleveland-Cliffs Abandons Weirton Plant—What’s Behind This Bold Pivot?

Cleveland-Cliffs reported a challenging first quarter of 2025, grappling with lower-than-expected performance metrics, particularly in terms of EBITDA and cash flow.
The company attributed these underwhelming results predominantly to low steel prices lingering from late 2024 into early 2025 and the lagging performance of non-core assets.
The federal tariffs on foreign steel, imposed under Section 232, were highlighted as critical to mitigating unfair competition—a policy supported by the Trump administration that aims to bolster domestic production.

Blueprint Medicines Targets $2 Billion—Can Soaring AYVAKIT Treatment Rates Make It Happen?

Blueprint Medicines presented a mixed yet promising outlook for the first quarter of 2025, exhibiting growth and challenges in their financial and operational performance.
The company reported significant progress, particularly with AYVAKIT, their commercialized treatment for systemic mastocytosis (SM), which achieved a 61% year-over year revenue growth.
This reflects a robust market demand and a growing patient base on therapy, aligning with their $2 billion revenue target for 2030.

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Jun 21

Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

Indian NR Production Marginally Improves, Consumption Down

Indian NR Production Marginally Improves, Consumption Down

By Vinod Nedumudy

FY 2024-25 NR production at 875,000 tons, consumption 1.41 mn tons
Compound rubber imports go up by 44.5% to 245,407 tons in FY 24-25
Replanting supported primarily by pineapple farming contractors

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Jun 21

Daily Brief China: Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Scie, Medtide, Oriental Watch, Ningbo Shuanglin Auto Parts, Iron Ore, Nationz Technologies Inc A, Seazen Holdings , Hang Seng Index and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Dec25: 1x-3x ADV for Most Names; Couple of Pair Trade Ideas
Medtide (泰德医药) IPO: Aggressive Valuation
Oriental Watch (398 HK): Resilient Despite Tough HK Environment, Dividend A Slight Disappointment
Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec25: ~US$600mn Collective One-Way Flows
[IO Technicals 2025/25] Bearish Momentum Strengthens
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Dec25: Early Preview; Multiple Changes Possible
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (June 16 – 20): Breadth Erodes, Vol Slips, Hedges Worth a Look

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Dec25: 1x-3x ADV for Most Names; Couple of Pair Trade Ideas

CSI Medical Service represents the top 50 largest and most-liquid stocks involved in medical devices, medical care, medical informatization, and other medical theme from the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing Exchanges.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
We expect up to four ADDs and four DELs for the CSI Medical Service index during this index review event based on the latest available data.

Medtide (泰德医药) IPO: Aggressive Valuation

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Medtide, a Chinese headquartered CDMO company, launched its IPO to raise up to US$66m via a Hong Kong listing.
We have previously covered the company’s fundamentals. We highlighted potential corporate governance issues despite its superior financials compared to peers.
In this note, we look at the deal term. We think the valuation and broker guidance is aggressive.

Oriental Watch (398 HK): Resilient Despite Tough HK Environment, Dividend A Slight Disappointment

By Sameer Taneja

Oriental Watch (398 HK) delivered a resilient result with revenue/profits -5%/-20% YoY (ex-one offs -11.5% YoY), despite weakness in HK (22% of sales), where the company is now making losses.
Cash & Investments dipped to 901 mn HKD, representing about 54% of the market capitalization. The company declared a 16.7 HKD cent/dividend (FY25: 41.3 HKD/cent yield 12%).
We believe that FY26 will be a year of consolidation, and with a weak HK, profits will remain subdued. Stock trades at 8.4x FY25 with a 12% dividend yield.

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec25: ~US$600mn Collective One-Way Flows

The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
We see 3 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event.

[IO Technicals 2025/25] Bearish Momentum Strengthens

By Umang Agrawal

Iron ore prices declined due to weakening demand from China, driven by a slump in its property sector, which has kept iron ore demand for steel subdued.
China’s steel production dropped 6.9% YoY in May amid capacity cuts, with blast furnace utilisation and pig iron output declining, though some furnace restarts may boost production soon.
Prices remain below key moving averages, indicating continued downward pressure, and the MACD below its signal line reinforces the current bearish trend.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Dec25: Early Preview; Multiple Changes Possible

CSI All Share Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Index represents the largest and most-liquid stocks in the Semiconductor Industry Group from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Exchanges.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
We expect up to six ADDs and two DELs for the CSI All Share Semiconductors index during this index review event based on the latest available data.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group
The US market was closed for Juneteenth yesterday.
US President Donald Trump has indicated that he will decide whether to attack Iran within the next two weeks, according to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (June 16 – 20): Breadth Erodes, Vol Slips, Hedges Worth a Look

By John Ley

Single stocks were softer on the week, with breadth continuing to weaken.
Put volumes surged to their highest levels since April; Put open interest continues to rise.
Implied volatility declined on the week despite elevated demand for downside protection.

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Jun 21

Daily Brief India: Orkla India Ltd., Oswal Pumps, Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise, Trent Ltd, Kotak Mahindra Bank, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

Orkla India Ltd. Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Oswal Pumps IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Strong Overall Demand
Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Apollo Hospitals (APHS IN): Sell – Priced for Perfection!
Trent’s Zudio: The Fast Fashion Trend Reshaping India’s Retail
Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) Vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) – Trade Exit and Take Profit
Indian NR Production Marginally Improves, Consumption Down

Orkla India Ltd. Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

Orkla India Ltd. (OI) is looking to raise about US$300mn in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI, Citi, JPM, and Kotak.
It’s a multi-category Indian food company offering a diverse range of products that cater to every meal occasion, from breakfast and lunch to dinner, snacks and beverages and desserts.
OI was one of the top four companies in terms of revenue from operations among select leading species and convenience foods peers in FY24, as per Technopak Report.

Oswal Pumps IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Strong Overall Demand

By Akshat Shah

Oswal Pumps (1019841D IN) raised about US$162m in its India IPO.
Oswal Pumps Ltd (OPL) specializes in the manufacturing of solar-powered and conventional pumps, electric motors, and related components for agricultural, residential, and industrial applications.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd (1607844D IN) (LJML) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are AnandRathi and Equirius.
LJML is a jewellery retailer operating under the brand name “Lalithaa”, offering a range of gold, silver, and diamond jewellery tailored to regional preferences in southern India.
As per the CRISIL Report, the company recorded the highest operating revenue per store among key organised jewellery players in India during FY22-9M25.

Apollo Hospitals (APHS IN): Sell – Priced for Perfection!

By Avien Pillay

We are bullish on the long-term growth of the hospital sector in India.
We are, however, concerned that Apollo will face intense competition as it expands.
A 53 FPE does not factor in the high cost of expansion and potential challenges.

Trent’s Zudio: The Fast Fashion Trend Reshaping India’s Retail

By Nimish Maheshwari

Zudio has rocketed to 765 stores, now half of Trent’s revenue, with FY-25 sales topping to A Billion dollars and 244 outlets added in one year.
Its asset-light FOCO rollout, 15-day design-to-rack cycle and sub-INR 999 pricing are redefining India’s value-fashion economics and pressuring rivals to mimic.
Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) is no longer a steady Westside play; Zudio’s runaway scale and margins reposition the group as India’s fastest-growing, mass-market fashion juggernaut.

Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) Vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) – Trade Exit and Take Profit

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) and Bajaj Finance (BAF IN), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a +4.7% return.
Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

Indian NR Production Marginally Improves, Consumption Down

By Vinod Nedumudy

FY 2024-25 NR production at 875,000 tons, consumption 1.41 mn tons
Compound rubber imports go up by 44.5% to 245,407 tons in FY 24-25
Replanting supported primarily by pineapple farming contractors

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Jun 21

Daily Brief Japan: Septeni Holdings, Kobe Steel Ltd, Japan Hotel Reit Investment, Resona Holdings, AS ONE Corporation, Towa Corp, Japan Business Systems , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Nippon Aqua, Polaris Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Asian Dividend Gems: Septeni Holdings
Kobelco (5406.T) – Diversified Industrial at Deep Value
The Yen’s Volatility & Japanese Hotel REITs: A Tourism-Driven Comeback Story
Japanese Big Cap Banks – Key Fundamental Tailwinds Drive Our Positive Picks
AS ONE (7476 JP) – A Royalty on Japan’s Scientific Advancement
Towa (6315): Buy for Orders Rebound
Japan Business System (5036 JP) – Cloud Integration Profitability Recovering Sharply
A Dialogue with a Skilled Outside Director Will Create Value. This Premise Is Important
Nippon Aqua (1429 JP) – Innovator in Living Environments
Polaris Holdings (3010 JP) – Scaling New Heights Through Strategic M&A and Surging Inbound Demand

Asian Dividend Gems: Septeni Holdings

Septeni Holdings is one of the leaders in Japan in the digital marketing business which mainly includes digital advertising, marketing support, data & AI-driven solutions.
The company has also aggressively raised dividend payouts which is a clear sign of improving corporate governance.
The company is also well positioned to deliver sales growth rate of about 5-7% per year in the next 2-3 years with 20%+ per year growth in operating profit.

Kobelco (5406.T) – Diversified Industrial at Deep Value

By Rahul Jain

Earnings stable over 3 years as machinery and power offset weak steel margins; ROIC gradually improving.
Focus on KOBEMAG®, machinery expansion, and carbon-neutral projects with disciplined capex.
Trades at ~5x P/E due to low ROIC, past governance issues, and misperception as a pure steel cyclical.

The Yen’s Volatility & Japanese Hotel REITs: A Tourism-Driven Comeback Story

By Jacob Cheng

The JPY Yen has depreciated 25% against USD for the last 5 years, this has made Japan an extremely attractive destination for foreigners
The Japan’s hotel sector is known by its low supply, partly due to higher development cost and labour shortage. We think REVPAR and ADR will continue to be strong
We like Japan Hotel REIT and Invincible for their hotel exposure. We think investors should closely monitor the Yen movement as well as BOJ policy

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Key Fundamental Tailwinds Drive Our Positive Picks

By Victor Galliano

The Bank of Japan left the short-term interest rate unchanged, but the governor stated that the tapering of JGB buying will continue, albeit with an eye on market stability
This implies that the JGB yield curve is likely to continue steepening going forward, which is constructive for Japanese banks; in addition, market lending rates to April continue to rise
We reassert buys on Resona, Mizuho, Shizuoka and Kyoto aided by our proprietary scorecard, and based on two core attributes; gearing to higher interest rates and cross-holdings to market capitalization

AS ONE (7476 JP) – A Royalty on Japan’s Scientific Advancement

By Astris Advisory Japan

As scientific progress increasingly depends on more complex equipment and precision instruments, we believe wholesaler and distributor AS ONE is well-positioned to capture demand through expanding its presence in the high-end segment.
Demand for scientific supplies and lower-end scientific equipment remains stable, providing a resilient, recurring revenue base.
The company’s growth has consistently outpaced and shown limited correlation with national R&D spending.

Towa (6315): Buy for Orders Rebound

By Scott Foster

After nearly two years of decline, TOWA’s new orders appear to have hit bottom this quarter and should start to recover in the three months to September.
Sales and profits should follow a similar trajectory with management expecting nearly 60% of FY Mar-26 sales and more than 80% of operating profit to be recorded in 2H.
Rising demand for AI-related high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and GPU packaging should drive growth for the next 2-3 years, bringing the projected P/E ratio for FY Mar-28 down to 12X.

Japan Business System (5036 JP) – Cloud Integration Profitability Recovering Sharply

By Sessa Investment Research

In Q2 FY24/9 financial results reported exactly one year ago, profit attributable to owners of parent declined -74.1% due to recording an impairment loss of JPY 1,720mn in the 2Q as an extraordinary loss for the entire unamortized balance of goodwill associated with the acquisition of consolidated subsidiary NEXTSCAPE Inc.
In SIR’s follow-up report, we wrote “management promptly recognizing the impairment and withdrawing the FY25/9 OP MTP target effectively minimizes future down-side risk.
In the meantime, core business performance continues to grow at double-digits. ”

A Dialogue with a Skilled Outside Director Will Create Value. This Premise Is Important

By Aki Matsumoto

The reason why many companies have previously rejected requests by overseas investors to meet with outside directors is that they’ve prioritized information control over constructive dialogue with shareholders and investors.
The fact that companies begun to provide opportunities for communication with outside directors will hopefully lead to shifts in value-creating management, but it’ll not easy to spread to many companies.
Even if more companies provide opportunities for communication between outside directors and investors in the future, dialogue with unskilled outside directors will not be fruitful.

Nippon Aqua (1429 JP) – Innovator in Living Environments

By Sessa Investment Research

Nippon Aqua Co., Ltd. (hereinafter, “the Company”) is a high-growth enterprise listed on the Prime Market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
Guided by its management philosophy—“Contribution to society through the creation of living environments that are friendly to people and the earth”—the Company leverages insulation and waterproofing technologies to drive energy efficiency and support a sustainable society.
It holds the leading domestic share in on-site urethane foam insulation installation and operates its business through three key divisions: Single-family homes , Buildings, and Waterproofing.

Polaris Holdings (3010 JP) – Scaling New Heights Through Strategic M&A and Surging Inbound Demand

By Astris Advisory Japan

Supported by Star Asia Group, Polaris Holdings now operates six hotel brands and is scaling up with a goal of 100 hotels and 15,000 rooms by FY3/27.
Shifting to a low-risk, fee-based model and a well-balanced fixed and variable lease structure to optimize risk-adjusted returns, its strategic mix of assets is enhancing earnings stability and growth potential.
Backed by strong financial foundations and effective capital deployment, Polaris is also expanding into new hotel types, strengthening its platform, and positioning for sustainable, scalable growth amid rising inbound demand.

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Jun 20

Most Read: Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food, BayCurrent Consulting , Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, NTT Data Corp, Mitsui Matsushima, Qi An Xin Technology Group , Seven Bank Ltd, Ningbo Port, China Rare Earth Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (3288 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion
[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL? Kokusai a Question, but 2 Ad Hoc Events Coming
HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September 2025
[Japan Event] Potentially Interesting Dynamics of Post-Tender NTT Data (9613) Trading. $8bn+ One Way
[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518) Ups Buyback Tender to 35.8%, Murakami-San Group To Sell
Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Sep25: Some High-Impact Names; New Sector-Neutral Pair Trade Ideas
[Japan Event] Seven Bank (8410) To Buy Back Up to 17.0% of Shares Out Tomorrow
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec25: US$5bn+ One Way Flows; Emphasis Should Be on NET Flows
BoE Still Seeking Evidence
China Rare Earth (769 HK)’s Wild Price Movement. An Offer In The Wings?

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (3288 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH)‘s global offering opens today and the raise could reach up to US$1.5bn if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
There is a large allocation to cornerstone investors. The discount of around 22% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for Midea (300 HK) and CATL (3750 HK).
The H-shares could be added to a global index and the FXI ETF in December. Inclusion in the HSCI should be in September and Southbound Stock Connect in July.

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL? Kokusai a Question, but 2 Ad Hoc Events Coming

The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible.
For now, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping is off, but there’s an ad hoc coming in late Q3 or early Q4 and the Sony Financial spinoff to look forward to.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September 2025

By Brian Freitas

We see 21 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
There have been some big listings in the last couple of months and those stocks should be added to the index in September. That increases the number of potential deletions.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

[Japan Event] Potentially Interesting Dynamics of Post-Tender NTT Data (9613) Trading. $8bn+ One Way

The NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) Tender Offer closed today. Results will come out tomorrow. I expect it will have been successful.
That will mean some US$8bn+ of passive tracking flows to sell and $8bn+ to buy related to this event alone in the next 3 months.
And there are some very interesting dynamics to consider in the meantime.

[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518) Ups Buyback Tender to 35.8%, Murakami-San Group To Sell

Today after the close, Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced it would increase its buyback from 3.5mm shares to 4.0mm shares (31.3% to 35.8%). It also announced a Tender Offer Buyback.
The tender offer starts tomorrow and goes til mid-July, paid 8 August. Murakami Group will tender a minimum of 3.3mm shares (more likely 4.2mm).
This is not a huge immediate win, but it’s OK. And it changes the structure of the company’s balance sheet, ROE, effective ROE, and possibly its dividend.

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Sep25: Some High-Impact Names; New Sector-Neutral Pair Trade Ideas

STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the September 2025 index rebal event.

[Japan Event] Seven Bank (8410) To Buy Back Up to 17.0% of Shares Out Tomorrow

Today after the close, Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP) announced a MASSIVE ToSTNeT-3 transaction to buy back up to 200,000,000 shares (17.0% of shares out) for ¥52.4bn. Tomorrow AM.
There is a complex iterative calculation on the part of Seven Eleven Japan to figure out how many shares they should put into the buyback.
I see a minimum buyback of 10.8%. 17% would be great. But there is a potential issue on the back end of which investors should be aware.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec25: US$5bn+ One Way Flows; Emphasis Should Be on NET Flows