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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Health Care: Mayne Pharma, Eli Lilly & Co, Medical Data Vision, Pharmaessentia Corp, Omada Health, Cybin , Sareum Holdings, Grace Therapeutics, OSE Immuno, Physiomics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Mayne Pharma Faces Legal Challenges as Cosette Attempts to Terminate Acquisition Over Material Adverse Clause Claims
  • Eli Lilly’s Bold Move: Can the SiteOne Acquisition Knock Vertex Off Its Pain Drug Throne?
  • Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. (3902 JP): Research Update
  • Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT): Strong Start of 2025; Growth Momentum to Continue
  • Omada Health IPO: Stayed Private For Longer, Modest Upside Potential
  • Cybin, Inc. – The Strategic Approach to Formulating a Successful CYB003 Launch
  • Hybridan Research: Sareum Holdings plc: Significant Stepping Stone
  • GRCE: Progress Report
  • OSE Immunotherapeutics — New UC biomarker underpins growth strategy
  • Hybridan Research: Physiomics plc: Building Relationships


Mayne Pharma Faces Legal Challenges as Cosette Attempts to Terminate Acquisition Over Material Adverse Clause Claims

By Special Situation Investments

  • Mayne Pharma’s acquisition by Cosette Pharmaceuticals faces challenges due to claims of material adverse changes, including financial performance and litigation issues.
  • Australian activist fund Harvest Lane Asset Management is building a position in MYX, arguing Cosette lacks grounds to terminate the deal.
  • Recent developments include FDA issue resolution, countersuit against TherapeuticsMD, and potential for a modest price cut agreement.

Eli Lilly’s Bold Move: Can the SiteOne Acquisition Knock Vertex Off Its Pain Drug Throne?

By Baptista Research

  • Eli Lilly and Company has made a decisive move to expand its footprint in neuroscience and pain management by announcing its acquisition of SiteOne Therapeutics, a clinical-stage biotech focused on developing non-opioid pain treatments.
  • The deal, valued at up to $1 billion including milestones, centers around STC-004, a Phase 2-ready NaV1.8 inhibitor that could become a next generation oral pain medication.
  • The acquisition underscores Lilly’s broader ambition to lead in addiction-free, chronic pain solutions at a time when regulatory and societal pressures around opioid misuse continue to rise.

Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. (3902 JP): Research Update

By Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK

  • Medical Data Vision [MDV] reported FY25 Q1 (Dec year-end) results with sales coming in largely in line with the firm’s guidance while operating profit [OP] was higher than expected.
  • The firm produced Q1 gross profit [GP] of1,085mil (+3.8% YoY) and OP of ¥17mil (-67.6% YoY) on sales of ¥1,532mil (+10.4% YoY).
  • Ther firm’s profit targets remain unchanged, guiding for FY25 OP of ¥2,600mil and RP of ¥2,500mil.

Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT): Strong Start of 2025; Growth Momentum to Continue

By Tina Banerjee

  • Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT) reported record-high revenue, operating, and net profits in 1Q25. Revenue hit new highs for eight consecutive quarters, with revenue CQGR standing at 18% during 1Q23–1Q25.
  • Continued sequential improvement in profitability is one of the key highlights of 1Q25 result. Pharmaessentia has turned profitable at both operating and net level for the first time in 2024.
  • Geography and indication expansion of Besremi, and pipeline progress will remain growth engines. Potential BLA submission of Besremi for ET and Besremi pen launch in 2025 are the near-term catalysts.

Omada Health IPO: Stayed Private For Longer, Modest Upside Potential

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Omada Health is expected to IPO this week. The company’s amended prospectus puts the expected price range per share at $18 to $20, implying a market cap of ~$1.1B.
  • Omada Health is a virtual-first healthcare provider, supporting people with chronic conditions: prediabetes, diabetes (T2D), hypertension, obesity and musculoskeletal.
  • A digital care provider stayed private for longer. Its direct competitor, Livongo Health, went public in 2019 and was acquired by Teladoc Health for ~$18.5B in 2020.

Cybin, Inc. – The Strategic Approach to Formulating a Successful CYB003 Launch

By Water Tower Research

  • Interventional psychiatry clinic landscape evolving for the better.
  • The interventional psychiatry landscape has significantly evolved over the past five years, with the emergence of ~5,000 clinics or mental health centers offering a range of services to patients from ECT and TMS to esketamine and regular ketamine.
  • From Cybin’s interactions with these centers, they appear to be well prepared for potential dosing and treatment with psychedelics like Cybin’s CYB003 as they come to market. 

Hybridan Research: Sareum Holdings plc: Significant Stepping Stone

By Hybridan

  • The toxicology studies program for its lead TYK2/JAK1 inhibitor, SDC-1801, are starting.
  • In 2024, SDC-1801 which is a dual inhibitor targeting autoimmune diseases, completed Phase 1 clinical trials in healthy volunteers which demonstrated a favorable safety and pharmacokinetic profile.
  • These toxicology studies are the next key regulatory milestone on the pathway to a Phase 2 development programme.

GRCE: Progress Report

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Grace is a clinical-stage, biotechnology company focused on rare disease.
  • Its lead program, GTx-104, is a novel injectable formulation of nimodipine for the treatment of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH).
  • Other programs include GTX-102 for Ataxia Telangiectasia & GTX-101 for postherpetic neuralgia.

OSE Immunotherapeutics — New UC biomarker underpins growth strategy

By Edison Investment Research

OSE has announced plans to strengthen its growth strategy and accelerate the key pillars of its pipeline, covering immuno-inflammation and immuno-oncology. In the inflammation space, the company revealed a potential path forward for lusvertikimab, which reported positive top-line data in Phase II (CoTikiS) for ulcerative colitis (UC) in Q424. A new predictive biomarker (a composite IL7R axis biomarker) has been identified through a retrospective analysis of CoTikiS, offering potential to improve clinical remission rates through a precision medicine approach with lusvertikimab, for the biomarker-positive population. Management is preparing for a Phase IIb programme to validate this biomarker, with the aim of demonstrating efficacy in this population by 2027. If successful, this should lay the foundation for late-stage clinical development efforts for lusvertikimab. In the oncology space, the latest update confirmed that the company is on track with its plans for regulatory submission, with the pivotal Phase III non-small cell lung cancer trial due to conclude in 2027, with potential to expand the label to other indications (such as pancreatic cancer) in later years, contingent on successful clinical progression.


Hybridan Research: Physiomics plc: Building Relationships

By Hybridan

  • A contract extension has been signed with an existing large pharma client.
  • This builds upon the contract awarded in June 2024 and uses Physiomics’s proprietary Virtual Tumour platform to model the client’s targeted oncology agents in combination with other modalities helping inform dose and scheduling decisions.
  • The contract extension continues this work and supports the client’s expansion into new oncology indications.

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Daily Brief Japan: Makino Milling Machine Co, Keisei Electric Railway Co, Medical Data Vision, yutori , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • MBK Partners Plans to Launch a Tender Offer for Makino Milling Machine
  • Keisei Electric (9009) | Neither Hidden nor Structurally Mispriced
  • Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. (3902 JP): Research Update
  • Yutori Doubles Sales Again
  • What the Tokyo Market Needs Is a Metabolism and Replacement with Motivated Managers


MBK Partners Plans to Launch a Tender Offer for Makino Milling Machine

By Douglas Kim

  • MBK Partners plans to launch a tender offer for Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP) at 11,751 yen per share by early December to take over the controlling ownership. 
  • The key long-term investment case for Makino is that it is one of the best companies in the world for making advanced machine tools that are increasingly becoming more sophisticated.
  • One could make the argument that this may not the final offer and some investors may require slightly higher prices in order to make the deal final. 

Keisei Electric (9009) | Neither Hidden nor Structurally Mispriced

By Mark Chadwick

  • Keisei’s OLC stake distorts valuation optics, but is already transparently priced by the market.
  • Activist criticism over “true” ROE reflects accounting semantics, not hidden inefficiency.
  • Core business plus OLC stake offers modest returns; upside exists, but hardly suggestive of chronic long-term underperformance

Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. (3902 JP): Research Update

By Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK

  • Medical Data Vision [MDV] reported FY25 Q1 (Dec year-end) results with sales coming in largely in line with the firm’s guidance while operating profit [OP] was higher than expected.
  • The firm produced Q1 gross profit [GP] of1,085mil (+3.8% YoY) and OP of ¥17mil (-67.6% YoY) on sales of ¥1,532mil (+10.4% YoY).
  • Ther firm’s profit targets remain unchanged, guiding for FY25 OP of ¥2,600mil and RP of ¥2,500mil.

Yutori Doubles Sales Again

By Michael Causton

  • Yutori is still a small business but is sometimes dubbed the Zozo of youth fashion, which is probably why Zozo bought a share in the online mall. 
  • And it’s proving a good bet, with sales doubling last year and a lot more expansion to come.
  • Thanks in part to investment in retail stores but also its uncanny ability to spot youth trends.

What the Tokyo Market Needs Is a Metabolism and Replacement with Motivated Managers

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The background for raising the maintaining listing criteria was that the current criteria are loose and that many companies aren’t motivated to grow because they consider IPO to be goal.
  • Too long time horizons and previous listing maintenance criteria that might have been manageable did not create a sense of urgency for the company to grow.
  • There’s concern that quality of standard market, to which companies that fail the criteria migrate, will deteriorate, and the entire market will need metabolism and replacement of management through M&A.

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Daily Brief China: Tam Jai International, Tencent and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document
  • Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Excellent Offer. Still.
  • Asian Equity: Performance of Our Quant Baskets: Indian MidCaps, Asian Dividend Yields Rule the Roost


Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document

By Arun George

  • The spread to TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation (3397 JP)’s HK$1.58 offer for Tam Jai International (2217 HK) has risen to 9.7% ahead of the scheme document’s release. 
  • Several readers have asked whether the Tam Jai offer will mirror the Goldlion and Soundwill deal break. The schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.
  • The scheme’s vote risk has undoubtedly increased partly due to the recent 2025 results and deal breaks. This situation warrants a safety-first approach.  

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Excellent Offer. Still.

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 17th Feb, a specialty restaurant-operator Tam Jai (2217 HK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from TORIDOLL (3397 JP) at HK$1.58/share, a 75.56% premium to undisturbed.
  • This should get up; but really, given the recent Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) and Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) failures, small, illiquid arbs are not the preferred haven for arb investors.
  • The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 30th June, and payment on or before the 26 August. The IFA (Lego Corporate) says “fair & reasonable“.

Asian Equity: Performance of Our Quant Baskets: Indian MidCaps, Asian Dividend Yields Rule the Roost

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • Of our seven quantitative stock baskets, four have operated for more than three months. We measure the performances of these four – Consistent Compounders, SMID Compounders, Dividend Yielders, Indian Mid-Caps.
  • Consistent Compounders, though up since inception, has underperformed MXASJ mildly. SMID Compounders has underperformed sharply. Asian Dividend Yielders has outperformed handsomely and Indian Mid-Caps, by a stupendous margin.
  • We think the Indian mid-cap basket could take a short-term breather. The Dividend Yield basket could outperform, as investors’ preference for yields in uncertain times could continue for now.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Tam Jai International, Ola Electric, yutori , Lands’ End Inc, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document
  • Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Excellent Offer. Still.
  • Ola Electric: Hyundai Exits Amid Slowing Sales, Delayed Cells and Fundraising Plans.
  • Yutori Doubles Sales Again
  • LE: 1Q Review: Holding the Course in Rough Waters; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT
  • What the Tokyo Market Needs Is a Metabolism and Replacement with Motivated Managers


Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document

By Arun George

  • The spread to TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation (3397 JP)’s HK$1.58 offer for Tam Jai International (2217 HK) has risen to 9.7% ahead of the scheme document’s release. 
  • Several readers have asked whether the Tam Jai offer will mirror the Goldlion and Soundwill deal break. The schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.
  • The scheme’s vote risk has undoubtedly increased partly due to the recent 2025 results and deal breaks. This situation warrants a safety-first approach.  

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Excellent Offer. Still.

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 17th Feb, a specialty restaurant-operator Tam Jai (2217 HK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from TORIDOLL (3397 JP) at HK$1.58/share, a 75.56% premium to undisturbed.
  • This should get up; but really, given the recent Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) and Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) failures, small, illiquid arbs are not the preferred haven for arb investors.
  • The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 30th June, and payment on or before the 26 August. The IFA (Lego Corporate) says “fair & reasonable“.

Ola Electric: Hyundai Exits Amid Slowing Sales, Delayed Cells and Fundraising Plans.

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Hyundai Motor (005380 KS)  and Kia Corp (000270 KS) have exited their investment in Ola Electric through a combined stake sale worth USD80 million, at a discount to market prices.
  • The exit marks the end of their 2019 investment in the then-unlisted 2W EV startup and highlights rising investor concerns over Ola Electric’s growth trajectory and operational challenges.
  • Ola Electric had listed less than a year ago with bullish growth projections, but the stock is down  34% from the issue price and 63% from post-IPO high prices.

Yutori Doubles Sales Again

By Michael Causton

  • Yutori is still a small business but is sometimes dubbed the Zozo of youth fashion, which is probably why Zozo bought a share in the online mall. 
  • And it’s proving a good bet, with sales doubling last year and a lot more expansion to come.
  • Thanks in part to investment in retail stores but also its uncanny ability to spot youth trends.

LE: 1Q Review: Holding the Course in Rough Waters; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating and $20 price target for Lands’ End and leaving our projections for the remainder of FY25 and FY26 basically unchanged after the company reported inline 1Q EPS, but revenue and EBITDA at the lower end of their guidance and below Street expectations.
  • That said, given the shift to higher licensing revenue (up 60%), the overall 1Q YoY revenue decline of 8.5%, with gross margins rising 210 bp, was not a material surprise.
  • Management reiterated FY25 guidance, as the company has mitigated the impact of tariffs and is focused on continuing to drive higher overall returns via increased licensing, lower inventories and discounting and shifting the customer base to a younger group focused on solutions for their lifestyle.

What the Tokyo Market Needs Is a Metabolism and Replacement with Motivated Managers

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The background for raising the maintaining listing criteria was that the current criteria are loose and that many companies aren’t motivated to grow because they consider IPO to be goal.
  • Too long time horizons and previous listing maintenance criteria that might have been manageable did not create a sense of urgency for the company to grow.
  • There’s concern that quality of standard market, to which companies that fail the criteria migrate, will deteriorate, and the entire market will need metabolism and replacement of management through M&A.

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Daily Brief Financials: Keppel DC REIT, FnGuide Inc, Interactive Brokers Group, Inc, Banco BPM SpA, Bank Of India and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • STTF Index Rebalance: Keppel DC REIT Replaces Jardine Cycle & Carriage
  • FnGuide Sector ETF Boom: Sniffing Out Uncrowded Flow Trades
  • [Quiddity Index Jun25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Final Predictions APP and IBKR
  • Cross-Border Capital: BAMI, Brussels, and the Battle for Banking Integration
  • Relative Value Opportunity: Bank of India (BOI IN) Vs. Union Bank of India (UNBK IN)


STTF Index Rebalance: Keppel DC REIT Replaces Jardine Cycle & Carriage

By Brian Freitas


FnGuide Sector ETF Boom: Sniffing Out Uncrowded Flow Trades

By Sanghyun Park

  • Korea’s ETF market just hit KRW 200T AUM — doubling in under 2 years. ETFs now make up ~10% of KOSPI’s cap and over half its daily trading volume.
  • FnGuide dominates Korea’s sector theme ETF space, capturing ~KRW 9T of the KRW 14T market — far ahead of KRX — with momentum accelerating in early 2025.
  • FnGuide’s rebalancing process is drawing more trader interest lately, with rising inquiries suggesting faster market learning — prompting earlier pre-positioning in sector ETF flow trades.

[Quiddity Index Jun25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Final Predictions APP and IBKR

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • The rankings used for the June 2025 index rebal event will be based on yesterday’s (4th June 2025) opening prices. The announcement will be after the close on Friday.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs/DELs (along with a tracker of all live spinoff/M&A events which affect the index the next two quarters).

Cross-Border Capital: BAMI, Brussels, and the Battle for Banking Integration

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • BAMI’s standalone upside remains compelling, trading at a discount to peers with solid capital ratios and structural re-rating catalysts, including asset management and insurance earnings now contributing more meaningfully.
  • The deal’s outcome hinges on golden power clearance and potential EU legal action; UniCredit’s resolve and Brussels’ support add optionality, despite headline and regulatory risk remaining high.
  • I see asymmetric outcomes favoring long BAMI positions or selective pair trades; timing risk is real, but downside is cushioned by valuation and sector consolidation dynamics.

Relative Value Opportunity: Bank of India (BOI IN) Vs. Union Bank of India (UNBK IN)

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Bank of India (BOI IN) vs. Union Bank of India (UNBK IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, signaling a potential pair trade.
  • The potential relative value opportunity can be implemented through stocks, derivatives, or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
  • This Insight provides a target return and discusses trade setup and risk management strategies.

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Daily Brief ESG: What the Tokyo Market Needs Is a Metabolism and Replacement with Motivated Managers and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • What the Tokyo Market Needs Is a Metabolism and Replacement with Motivated Managers


What the Tokyo Market Needs Is a Metabolism and Replacement with Motivated Managers

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The background for raising the maintaining listing criteria was that the current criteria are loose and that many companies aren’t motivated to grow because they consider IPO to be goal.
  • Too long time horizons and previous listing maintenance criteria that might have been manageable did not create a sense of urgency for the company to grow.
  • There’s concern that quality of standard market, to which companies that fail the criteria migrate, will deteriorate, and the entire market will need metabolism and replacement of management through M&A.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Trump’s Disappointment and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Trump’s Disappointment
  • China’s AI Strategy Isn’t About Catching up to the West – It’s About Out-Deploying It.
  • Japan Morning Connection: Dull Tone to Start as Musk Squabble Overshadows Trump’s Call with China
  • Silver Market Snapshot: Rising Prices, Industrial Tailwinds, and Strategic Exposure
  • South Africa Listed Property Review – May 2025
  • Global and Indian Textile Industry-Shifting Supply Chains,Innovation in Materials,and Policy Support
  • Circle IPO: Wall Street’s New Fintech Darling Prices Above Range
  • #159 India Insights: Adani Enters Ground Handling, Palm Oil Imports 87% Surge, Zepto Delays IPO


Ohayo Japan | Trump’s Disappointment

By Mark Chadwick

  • Stocks fell as Tesla plunged, Trump-Xi tensions resurfaced, and weak labor data fueled economic concerns ahead of Friday’s key nonfarm payrolls report.
  • Suzuki suspends Swift production due to China’s rare earth export limits, disrupting global supply chains. This could get ugly.
  • Palliser Capital opposes Keisei’s board, pushing for governance reform and a reduced Oriental Land stake to boost capital efficiency. Unlikely to sway other shareholders

China’s AI Strategy Isn’t About Catching up to the West – It’s About Out-Deploying It.

By Finimize Research

  • China’s wiring AI directly into the real economy: across consumer platforms, supply chains, and public services. That real-world focus could power the country’s next growth wave.
  • Valuations are cheap. Risks are well known. And if one macro domino falls the right way – a policy shift, demand recovery, geopolitics thaw – the upside could be substantial.  
  • So I built the China AI Deployment 10 basket. These stocks aren’t a moonshot: they’re a leveraged play on one of the most consequential tech shifts in China’s modern economy.

Japan Morning Connection: Dull Tone to Start as Musk Squabble Overshadows Trump’s Call with China

By Andrew Jackson

  • Suzuki stopping production of the Suzuki swift due to lack of rare earth from China may be the new normal for autos.
  • ISpace lunar lander fails to touch down on the moon (again), while Musk is threatening to decommission his Dragon rockets.
  • Sekisui House numbers missed on poor margins and order outlook for its US detached housing business.

Silver Market Snapshot: Rising Prices, Industrial Tailwinds, and Strategic Exposure

By Rahul Jain

  • Silver prices have rallied 20% YTD to $35.60/oz, supported by strong industrial demand and a persistent market deficit.
  • Despite being a small market compared to gold and copper, silver offers niche exposure through major producers like Hindustan Zinc, Fresnillo, and Pan American.
  • Structural undersupply, driven by green tech and limited new mine capacity, positions silver as a high-beta hedge and a strategic long-term play.

South Africa Listed Property Review – May 2025

By Garreth Elston

  • Building upon the positive momentum in April, May was once again a positive month.
  • All Property Index ended the month up 4.22% in total returns (key to note is that it was the last three trading days that saved Index from a down month).
  • Overall market sentiment showed cautious optimism, supported by some encouraging company results, but was arguably saved by the SARB’s 25 bps interest rate cut injecting a shot of optimism.

Global and Indian Textile Industry-Shifting Supply Chains,Innovation in Materials,and Policy Support

By Sreemant Dudhoria

  • Global and Indian textile markets face shifting supply chains due to geopolitical tensions, driving sourcing diversification towards India.
  • There’s a significant push for innovation in materials, focusing on man-made fibers, sustainable, and technical textiles globally and in India
  • The Indian textile industry benefits from strong government policy support, including protective tariffs and various incentive schemes

Circle IPO: Wall Street’s New Fintech Darling Prices Above Range

By Tatja Karkkainen

  • With an IPO valuation of roughly $8.2 billion and current forward P/E of ~32 ×, Circle still looks poised for multiple expansion as regulatory clarity and stable-coin adoption gather pace.
  • Deal upsized from 32 m to 34 m shares, and priced $3 above the top of the original range, boosting total proceeds by >20 %
  • Public float increases to ~13 % of the company, modestly improving trading liquidity while founders retain long-term control via Class B shares

#159 India Insights: Adani Enters Ground Handling, Palm Oil Imports 87% Surge, Zepto Delays IPO

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Adani Group enters the airport ground handling sector, expanding its operations after Celebi’s exit. It aims to bid for major contracts and compete with established players.
  • India’s palm oil imports surged 87% in May due to low stocks and better prices, likely lifting global palm and soy oil prices in coming months.
  • Zepto (1936629D IN) postpones its IPO to 2026, shifting focus to private fundraising and cutting cash burn amid growing competition and operational challenges.

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Treasury yields fell 9-10 bps across the curve yesterday, as the weak ADP employment and ISM services data raised expectations for Fed rate cuts.
  • The yield on the 2Y UST declined 9 bps to 3.87%, while that on the 10Y UST was down 10 bps at 4.36%.
  • Equities were largely steady, with the S&P 500 unchanged and the Nasdaq up 0.3%. 

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: MBK Partners Plans to Launch a Tender Offer for Makino Milling Machine and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • MBK Partners Plans to Launch a Tender Offer for Makino Milling Machine
  • Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document
  • Accounting for Soul Patts/Brickworks’ Feedback Loop
  • Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Excellent Offer. Still.
  • Mayne Pharma Faces Legal Challenges as Cosette Attempts to Terminate Acquisition Over Material Adverse Clause Claims
  • Ola Electric: Hyundai Exits Amid Slowing Sales, Delayed Cells and Fundraising Plans.
  • Cross-Border Capital: BAMI, Brussels, and the Battle for Banking Integration


MBK Partners Plans to Launch a Tender Offer for Makino Milling Machine

By Douglas Kim

  • MBK Partners plans to launch a tender offer for Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP) at 11,751 yen per share by early December to take over the controlling ownership. 
  • The key long-term investment case for Makino is that it is one of the best companies in the world for making advanced machine tools that are increasingly becoming more sophisticated.
  • One could make the argument that this may not the final offer and some investors may require slightly higher prices in order to make the deal final. 

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document

By Arun George

  • The spread to TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation (3397 JP)’s HK$1.58 offer for Tam Jai International (2217 HK) has risen to 9.7% ahead of the scheme document’s release. 
  • Several readers have asked whether the Tam Jai offer will mirror the Goldlion and Soundwill deal break. The schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.
  • The scheme’s vote risk has undoubtedly increased partly due to the recent 2025 results and deal breaks. This situation warrants a safety-first approach.  

Accounting for Soul Patts/Brickworks’ Feedback Loop

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 2 June, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) (Soul Patts) and Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU), announced that, via inter-conditional Schemes, they would collapse their circularity. 
  • A new ASX-listed company (TopCo) would acquire all of the shares in Soul Patts and Brickworks, via the issuance of TopCo shares; 1:1 for Sout Patts, and 0.82:1 for Brickworks. 
  • Given the cross-holding,  an interesting exercise is understanding the underlying values for both Soul Patts and Brickworks.

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Excellent Offer. Still.

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 17th Feb, a specialty restaurant-operator Tam Jai (2217 HK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from TORIDOLL (3397 JP) at HK$1.58/share, a 75.56% premium to undisturbed.
  • This should get up; but really, given the recent Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) and Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) failures, small, illiquid arbs are not the preferred haven for arb investors.
  • The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 30th June, and payment on or before the 26 August. The IFA (Lego Corporate) says “fair & reasonable“.

Mayne Pharma Faces Legal Challenges as Cosette Attempts to Terminate Acquisition Over Material Adverse Clause Claims

By Special Situation Investments

  • Mayne Pharma’s acquisition by Cosette Pharmaceuticals faces challenges due to claims of material adverse changes, including financial performance and litigation issues.
  • Australian activist fund Harvest Lane Asset Management is building a position in MYX, arguing Cosette lacks grounds to terminate the deal.
  • Recent developments include FDA issue resolution, countersuit against TherapeuticsMD, and potential for a modest price cut agreement.

Ola Electric: Hyundai Exits Amid Slowing Sales, Delayed Cells and Fundraising Plans.

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Hyundai Motor (005380 KS)  and Kia Corp (000270 KS) have exited their investment in Ola Electric through a combined stake sale worth USD80 million, at a discount to market prices.
  • The exit marks the end of their 2019 investment in the then-unlisted 2W EV startup and highlights rising investor concerns over Ola Electric’s growth trajectory and operational challenges.
  • Ola Electric had listed less than a year ago with bullish growth projections, but the stock is down  34% from the issue price and 63% from post-IPO high prices.

Cross-Border Capital: BAMI, Brussels, and the Battle for Banking Integration

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • BAMI’s standalone upside remains compelling, trading at a discount to peers with solid capital ratios and structural re-rating catalysts, including asset management and insurance earnings now contributing more meaningfully.
  • The deal’s outcome hinges on golden power clearance and potential EU legal action; UniCredit’s resolve and Brussels’ support add optionality, despite headline and regulatory risk remaining high.
  • I see asymmetric outcomes favoring long BAMI positions or selective pair trades; timing risk is real, but downside is cushioned by valuation and sector consolidation dynamics.

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Daily Brief Macro: Lee Jae-Myung’s 20 Trillion Won+ Supplementary Budget: Free Money and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Lee Jae-Myung’s 20 Trillion Won+ Supplementary Budget: Free Money, Don’t Worry and Be Happy
  • ECB: Policy Well-Positioned Already
  • The Art of the Trade War: XI WATCHES AS TRUMP SERVES TACOS
  • CX Daily: AI Video Is Becoming a Sector to Watch in China, but Don’t Get Out the Popcorn Yet
  • [ETP 2025/23] WTI Rises on Supply Disruptions, Henry Hub Gains on Summer Demand Outlook
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 6 June 2025


Lee Jae-Myung’s 20 Trillion Won+ Supplementary Budget: Free Money, Don’t Worry and Be Happy

By Douglas Kim

  • One of the major policies that Lee Jae-Myung’s new administration is likely to push through is the 20 trillion won (US$15 billion)+ supplementary budget. 
  • The aim of this policy is to revive the sluggish domestic economy. It is a classic “spend first, worry later” government policy.
  • The supplementary budget is basically sacrificing the balance sheet of the entire South Korea at the expense of short term economic stimulus which may have just limited impact. 

ECB: Policy Well-Positioned Already

By Phil Rush

  • The ECB’s 25bp cut took rates to a level that it considers well-positioned for the current outlook, thereby removing the presumption in favour of further easing.
  • Lower headline inflation forecasts are already embedded in that judgement, with the temporary role of energy and FX recognised. Downside risks preserve some dovish bias.
  • We still see this rate cut as the final one amid tight labour markets that preserve excessive underlying inflationary pressure. Market pricing should be less dovish.

The Art of the Trade War: XI WATCHES AS TRUMP SERVES TACOS

By David Mudd

  • President Xi agreed to discuss issues including rare earths, chip design restrictions, and Chinese student visas with President Trump.  China warns the US on its increased arms shipments to Taiwan.
  • The auto industry is facing disruptions in production due to shortages of rare earth metals.  
  • The headline noise is starting to lose its luster as soft and hard data signals begin to pressure markets again.

CX Daily: AI Video Is Becoming a Sector to Watch in China, but Don’t Get Out the Popcorn Yet

By Caixin Global

  • AI / In Depth: AI video is becoming a sector to watch in China, but don’t get out the popcorn yet Video generation tools powered by artificial intelligence (AI) have become one of the hottest investments for China’s big tech companies as they look to broaden their revenue streams.
  • Since ChatGPT developer OpenAI surprised the world with its text-to-video model Sora in February 2024, Chinese companies have rapidly rolled out similar tools that have been used to make short films and video series.
  • Law / China bolsters graft watchdog with new powers China is set to grant its powerful anti-corruption watchdog new investigative powers and significantly extend detention limits for suspects, signaling a further toughening of President Xi Jinping’s signature anti-graft campaign.

[ETP 2025/23] WTI Rises on Supply Disruptions, Henry Hub Gains on Summer Demand Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 30/May, U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.3m barrels (vs. expectations of a 2.9m barrel decline). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
  • The EIA reported a 122 Bcf storage build, while analysts forecasted a 111 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 4.7% above the five-year average but 10% below year-ago levels.
  • JPMorgan sees Reliance earnings rebounding on better margins; Saudi Aramco cuts Asia crude prices after OPEC+ supply hike.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 6 June 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • Most Asian manufacturing sectors show contraction, with India, the Philippines, and Thailand as rare exceptions.

  • Political instability is rising in Japan, Korea, and the Philippines, impacting economic direction.

  • Weak retail sales and falling real incomes highlight persistent economic challenges in Hong Kong and Japan.


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