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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Japan: Suzuki Motor, Creek & River, Usen-Next Holdings Co Ltd, Aeon Fantasy, Fast Retailing, Yoshinoya Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): The Current Playbook
  • Creek & River (4763 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update
  • Usen-Next Holdings Co Ltd (9418 JP): 1H FY08/25 flash update
  • Aeon Fantasy (4343 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update
  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Profit Targets After Q2 Results
  • Yoshinoya Holdings (9861 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the announcement of the US$1.1 billion secondary offering, Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)’s shares have remained broadly unchanged at the undisturbed price of JPY1570.5 per share (7 April).
  • It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Suzuki’s share performance is the joint best among recent large placements.
  • However, the shares have underperformed the Nikkei 225 index (up 7.9%). The offering will likely be priced on 14 April. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

Creek & River (4763 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Sales increased by JPY476mn (+1.0% YoY), driven by growth in the Creative (Japan) segment, while operating profit decreased by JPY489mn (-11.9% YoY).
  • The company forecasts FY02/26 consolidated sales of JPY60.0bn (+19.3% YoY) and operating profit of JPY5.0bn (+38.3% YoY).
  • Year-end dividend forecast for FY02/26 is JPY45.0 per share, with a payout ratio of 38.9%.

Usen-Next Holdings Co Ltd (9418 JP): 1H FY08/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • 1H FY08/25 revenue increased 22.7% YoY to JPY186.8bn, with progress toward full-year forecast at 51.9%.
  • Operating profit rose 5.0% YoY to JPY16.6bn, with all segments showing growth except Communications & Energy.
  • Subscriber count for U-NEXT increased by 150,000, while former Paravi subscribers declined by 20,000 in 1H FY08/25.

Aeon Fantasy (4343 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • FY02/25 sales increased by 6.7% YoY, with operating profit up 21.2% YoY, but recurring profit declined 23.4% YoY.
  • FY02/26 forecasts sales of JPY92.2bn (+5.7% YoY), operating profit of JPY7.3bn (+68.0% YoY), and net income of JPY2.5bn.
  • The company plans to open new facility formats and expand in regional cities, focusing on profitability and efficiency.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Profit Targets After Q2 Results

By Nico Rosti

  • Mark Chadwick highlighted Fast Retailing (9983 JP) ‘s outlook in 2 recent insights, before and after Q2 earnings: his DCF model for this stock suggests roughly a +13% upside.
  • This week the stock rallied from the crash at the start of the week, closing a bit higher than the previous week (it had closed 1 week down, CC=-1).
  • Assuming the stock may rally further from here, pushed by good Q2 results, let’s have a look to our model to analyze some profit targets.

Yoshinoya Holdings (9861 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Consolidated sales reached JPY205.0bn (+9.3% YoY), with operating profit at JPY7.3bn (-8.4% YoY) and net income JPY3.8bn (-32.1% YoY).
  • The company forecasts FY02/26 sales at JPY225.0bn (+9.8% YoY), with operating profit expected to rise 1.3% YoY.
  • The company achieved JPY187.5bn sales in FY02/24, surpassing its JPY180.0bn target, due to agile menu price revisions.

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Utilities: Sembcorp Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

By Joe Jasper

  • Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int’l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
  • But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int’l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.
  • Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Hyundai Rotem Company, Delhivery , Ocean Wilsons Holdings, Creek & River, 4Global and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (Starting 14 April 2025)
  • Event Driven: Delhivery Acquires Ecom Express as Distress Sale
  • Ocean Wilsons Holdings — Disposal to generate surplus capital
  • Creek & River (4763 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update
  • Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 03/04/2025

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (Starting 14 April 2025)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks starting 14 April. 
  • Our top 10 picks in the most recent bi-weekly was down 2.5% on average, outperforming KOSPI which was down 4.9% in the same period. 
  • The top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include Binggrae, Hyundai Rotem, Krafton, Nongshim, SK Telecom, Hanwha Systems, APR, SK Inc, Korean Air, and Samsung Heavy Industries. 

Event Driven: Delhivery Acquires Ecom Express as Distress Sale

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Delhivery (DELHIVER IN) acquired a 99.4% stake in Ecom Express for ₹1,407 crore, months after Ecom’s failed IPO and rights issue raised similar funds.
  • The deal combines two logistics leaders, expands Tier-2/3 reach, and promises cost efficiency, route optimization, and stronger pricing discipline in India’s fast-growing B2C e-commerce logistics.
  • Despite red flags in Ecom and DRHP disputes, Delhivery may have picked up a distressed but strategic asset at a bargain, with upside from network and tech integration.

Ocean Wilsons Holdings — Disposal to generate surplus capital

By Edison Investment Research

In FY24, Ocean Wilsons increased its earnings per share and dividend by 7% and more than 40%, respectively. 2024 was a seismic year for the company as it agreed to sell its 56% holding in Wilson Sons. It will be returning a portion of the sale proceeds to shareholders but the use of the remaining proceeds is still under consideration. Currently, Ocean Wilsons is trading at a c 40% discount to our estimated total asset value of 2,389p/share. Given the pending disposal, we are withdrawing our forecasts.

Creek & River (4763 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Sales increased by JPY476mn (+1.0% YoY), driven by growth in the Creative (Japan) segment, while operating profit decreased by JPY489mn (-11.9% YoY).
  • The company forecasts FY02/26 consolidated sales of JPY60.0bn (+19.3% YoY) and operating profit of JPY5.0bn (+38.3% YoY).
  • Year-end dividend forecast for FY02/26 is JPY45.0 per share, with a payout ratio of 38.9%.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 03/04/2025

By Hybridan

  • The provider of data and technology for sports, fitness and wellness organisations to optimise operational and investment decisions, announced that, following a competitive tender, it has secured a contract renewal and expansion with Sport England worth up to £4m over four years in equal terms.
  • Sport England initially procured 4GLOBAL in 2021 to provide performance data from public leisure facilities through its platform, Moving Communities, a decision-support tool that uses 4GLOBAL’s dataset to aid understanding of where and how people engage in physical activity, enabling a more evidence-based approach to public investment.
  • The platform has since played a central role in programmes such as the National Leisure Recovery Fund and the Swimming Pool Support Fund, tracking over 9 million active people across 1,000+ leisure facilities daily.

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Samsung SDI, Paytm, Apple , Usen-Next Holdings Co Ltd, Devolver Digital and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Clearing Up the Confusion: Ex-Rights Trading in Korean Rights Offerings
  • Paytm 2.0: Growth Triggers Loading…
  • Apple in Crisis Mode? Tariffs, Stock Wipeouts, and Supply Chain Shocks Shake Up the Tech Giant!
  • Usen-Next Holdings Co Ltd (9418 JP): 1H FY08/25 flash update
  • Devolver Digital — 2024 in line and 2025 to continue improvements

Clearing Up the Confusion: Ex-Rights Trading in Korean Rights Offerings

By Sanghyun Park

  • Not much juice at ex-rights — price move’s small, and shorting’s risky with recall risk and having to compensate the lender for lost rights.
  • Some locals chase rights instead, but it’s not really a go-to trade with all the cost/efficiency uncertainty.
  • First round price pre–ex-rights sets the floor for arb margins and anchors rights pricing once they start trading — key level to keep in the playbook.

Paytm 2.0: Growth Triggers Loading…

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Paytm (PAYTM IN) is pivoting post-regulatory setbacks with board overhaul, license reapplications, and focus on high-margin verticals like lending and merchant services.
  • Triggers like MDR revival, PPBL embargo removal, and PA license approval could significantly lift monetization, improve take rates, and stabilize investor sentiment.
  • While competition is stiff, structural improvements and cost controls position Paytm for a profitable rebound, making it a potential re-rating candidate in FY26.

Apple in Crisis Mode? Tariffs, Stock Wipeouts, and Supply Chain Shocks Shake Up the Tech Giant!

By Baptista Research

  • Apple Inc. is facing one of the most turbulent moments in its recent history.
  • Over the past week, the company has lost over $700 billion in market capitalization, relinquished its crown as the most valuable U.S. company to Microsoft, and seen its shares plummet by 23% across four trading sessions.
  • The sell-off comes on the back of escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, with President Donald Trump introducing a 125% tariff on Chinese imports—directly impacting Apple’s China-dependent supply chain.

Usen-Next Holdings Co Ltd (9418 JP): 1H FY08/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • 1H FY08/25 revenue increased 22.7% YoY to JPY186.8bn, with progress toward full-year forecast at 51.9%.
  • Operating profit rose 5.0% YoY to JPY16.6bn, with all segments showing growth except Communications & Energy.
  • Subscriber count for U-NEXT increased by 150,000, while former Paravi subscribers declined by 20,000 in 1H FY08/25.

Devolver Digital — 2024 in line and 2025 to continue improvements

By Edison Investment Research

Devolver Digital’s H1 FY24 results saw a return to adjusted EBITDA profitability as the company and its peers adjusted to post-pandemic market conditions. The H224 results continued that trend and, with a higher proportion of royalty-free first-party intellectual property (IP) and higher-margin front catalogue products set for release this year, 2025 profits should be able to grow further. The Switch 2 release is another potential welcome boost for 2025, suggesting that consensus forecasts are relatively well underpinned in an otherwise challenging gaming market.

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: CRH , James Hardie Industries Plc, Jindal Steel & Power, Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited, Rio2, Glencore , Arq and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • [Quiddity Index Apr25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Lots of Intraview Changes Possible
  • James Hardie (JHX AU)/Azek (AZEK US) Merger: Risky, Expensive, And Poor Governance
  • The Beat Ideas: Jindal Steel & Power, A 31000Cr Mega Capex Plan
  • Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • RIO: Highlights from Our Site Visit to the Fenix Gold Project
  • Glencore: Initiation of Coverage
  • ARQ: Phase 1 GAC Ramping Up in 2025; Domestic Supply Chain Largely Immune from Tariff Impact

[Quiddity Index Apr25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Lots of Intraview Changes Possible

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
  • We expect two regular changes in June 2025. BUT… there are multiple live spin-off and M&A events likely to trigger intra-review index changes. Three are likely!

James Hardie (JHX AU)/Azek (AZEK US) Merger: Risky, Expensive, And Poor Governance

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 24th March, building materials outfit James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX AU) announced a cash/scrip merger with decking manufacturer Azek (AZEK US).
  • JHX is offering 1.034 new JHX shares plus US$26.45/share in cash for each Azek share, or an implied $56.88 all-in price (at the time), a punchy 37.4% premium to undisturbed. 
  • Apart from pushback on pricing for Azek, JHX shareholders have voiced opposition over the ASX granting a waiver, allowing the merger to proceed without a vote from JHX shareholders

The Beat Ideas: Jindal Steel & Power, A 31000Cr Mega Capex Plan

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • The company is in the final stages of commissioning its INR 31,000 crore capex plan, accompanied by strong promoter buying in recent months
  • The new capacity is expected to improve margins through deeper backward integration while also expanding its value-added product mix.
  • With secured fuel, captive power, and value-added downstream capacity, it is poised to emerge as an infrastructure powerhouse. A steel price recovery would further amplify gains.

Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

  • Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited (JIRI) is looking to raise about US$140m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC.
  • It’s a pre-revenue tungsten mining company with the world’s largest open-pit tungsten mine in terms of mineral resources of tungsten trioxide (WO3) in 2024, as per Frost & Sullivan (F&S).
  • Mining operation is conducted by a local subsidiary while JIRI is responsible for the processing operation and sales of the product to its customers.

RIO: Highlights from Our Site Visit to the Fenix Gold Project

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • We visited Rio2’s Fenix Gold Project near Copiapó, Chile on March 25th.
  • • The visit was valuable in better understanding the layout of the project, progress on construction, the scale of the asset, and team behind it.
  • • As a reminder, The Fenix Gold Project is the largest fully permitted and financed gold heap leach project in the Americas.

Glencore: Initiation of Coverage

By Baptista Research

  • Glencore PLC’s 2024 financial results reflect a robust operational year, with the company reporting an adjusted EBITDA of $14.4 billion, indicating strong performance across its industrial and marketing segments.
  • The industrial segment achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $10.6 billion, primarily driven by a healthy metals business despite challenging conditions in the metallurgical market.
  • The recent integration of the EVR coal business contributed significantly, adding $1 billion to EBITDA in the latter half of the year.

ARQ: Phase 1 GAC Ramping Up in 2025; Domestic Supply Chain Largely Immune from Tariff Impact

By Water Tower Research

  • Following ARQ’s 4Q24 results, we are fine-tuning our estimates and introducing quarterly forecasts.
  • ARQ is an environmental tech company producing activated carbon (AC) products that reduce or reverse environmental liabilities.
  • Among many applications, AC products remove “forever chemicals” from public drinking water, remediate contaminated soil and ground water, and remove impurities from renewable natural gas. 

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Ainos , Fagron, Max Healthcare Institute and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • AIMD: Deep Dive into AI-Powered Smell in Semi Fabs and Robotics After Recent Partnerships
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 10 April (Fagron)
  • Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): Multi-Pronged Expansion Strategy Augurs Well for Sustainable Growth

AIMD: Deep Dive into AI-Powered Smell in Semi Fabs and Robotics After Recent Partnerships

By Water Tower Research

  • AI Nose for healthcare, industrials, and robotics. Ainos is digitizing smell with AI Nose to capture airborne chemical signatures, using AI-powered processes to immediately classify and identify scents in any environment.
  • Initially focused on healthcare, Ainos is developing a women’s health test, Ainos Flora with AI Nose, in addition to an elderly care project with Japanese partners to assist caregivers in monitoring seniors.
  • Ainos recently entered partnerships with ugo and ASE, expanding AI Nose development to robotics and industrial applications.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 10 April (Fagron)

By The IDEA!

  • organic revenue CAGR at CER: high single digit to low double digits                       
  • REBITDA margin: approx. 21.0% by 2027, with a progressive increase through 2030 
  • Operating Cash Flow conversion: ≥70% 

Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): Multi-Pronged Expansion Strategy Augurs Well for Sustainable Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) completed the acquisition of Jaypee Healthcare in last November, thereby adding 700 beds. Jaypee added INR1,120M revenue with an operating EBITDA of INR230M in Q3FY25.
  • Max is setting up ~500 bedded hospital at Thane, Maharashtra on an asset-light built-to-suit basis. The proposed construction of hospital premises is expected to be completed by 2028.
  • Current expansion plan indicates significant capacity ramp-up (20%+) in FY26, and majority of which will come by Q1, thereby generating scope for revenue realization for most part of the year.

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Hyundai Rotem Company, Delhivery , Ocean Wilsons Holdings, Creek & River, 4Global and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (Starting 14 April 2025)
  • Event Driven: Delhivery Acquires Ecom Express as Distress Sale
  • Ocean Wilsons Holdings — Disposal to generate surplus capital
  • Creek & River (4763 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update
  • Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 03/04/2025

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (Starting 14 April 2025)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks starting 14 April. 
  • Our top 10 picks in the most recent bi-weekly was down 2.5% on average, outperforming KOSPI which was down 4.9% in the same period. 
  • The top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include Binggrae, Hyundai Rotem, Krafton, Nongshim, SK Telecom, Hanwha Systems, APR, SK Inc, Korean Air, and Samsung Heavy Industries. 

Event Driven: Delhivery Acquires Ecom Express as Distress Sale

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Delhivery (DELHIVER IN) acquired a 99.4% stake in Ecom Express for ₹1,407 crore, months after Ecom’s failed IPO and rights issue raised similar funds.
  • The deal combines two logistics leaders, expands Tier-2/3 reach, and promises cost efficiency, route optimization, and stronger pricing discipline in India’s fast-growing B2C e-commerce logistics.
  • Despite red flags in Ecom and DRHP disputes, Delhivery may have picked up a distressed but strategic asset at a bargain, with upside from network and tech integration.

Ocean Wilsons Holdings — Disposal to generate surplus capital

By Edison Investment Research

In FY24, Ocean Wilsons increased its earnings per share and dividend by 7% and more than 40%, respectively. 2024 was a seismic year for the company as it agreed to sell its 56% holding in Wilson Sons. It will be returning a portion of the sale proceeds to shareholders but the use of the remaining proceeds is still under consideration. Currently, Ocean Wilsons is trading at a c 40% discount to our estimated total asset value of 2,389p/share. Given the pending disposal, we are withdrawing our forecasts.

Creek & River (4763 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Sales increased by JPY476mn (+1.0% YoY), driven by growth in the Creative (Japan) segment, while operating profit decreased by JPY489mn (-11.9% YoY).
  • The company forecasts FY02/26 consolidated sales of JPY60.0bn (+19.3% YoY) and operating profit of JPY5.0bn (+38.3% YoY).
  • Year-end dividend forecast for FY02/26 is JPY45.0 per share, with a payout ratio of 38.9%.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 03/04/2025

By Hybridan

  • The provider of data and technology for sports, fitness and wellness organisations to optimise operational and investment decisions, announced that, following a competitive tender, it has secured a contract renewal and expansion with Sport England worth up to £4m over four years in equal terms.
  • Sport England initially procured 4GLOBAL in 2021 to provide performance data from public leisure facilities through its platform, Moving Communities, a decision-support tool that uses 4GLOBAL’s dataset to aid understanding of where and how people engage in physical activity, enabling a more evidence-based approach to public investment.
  • The platform has since played a central role in programmes such as the National Leisure Recovery Fund and the Swimming Pool Support Fund, tracking over 9 million active people across 1,000+ leisure facilities daily.

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Financials: American International Group, Longfor Properties, RHB Bank Bhd, SES AI Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • American Airlines Braces for Turbulence: Are Tariffs and Corporate Cuts Threatening Its 2025 Takeoff?
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Malaysian Banks Screen; Stick with RHB Bank and CIMB
  • SES AI Corp. – 1Q25 Revenue Preview Demonstrates Continuing Traction on Commercialization

American Airlines Braces for Turbulence: Are Tariffs and Corporate Cuts Threatening Its 2025 Takeoff?

By Baptista Research

  • American Airlines is navigating a complex and turbulent operating environment as macroeconomic pressures, declining consumer confidence, and reduced corporate travel weigh heavily on the airline industry.
  • While the broader sector has been battered by a steep drop in airline stock valuations—American Airlines itself has declined 24% in the past month alone—American has nonetheless posted a strong financial performance in recent quarters.
  • In Q4, the carrier reported an adjusted pretax profit of $808 million and EPS of $0.86, beating guidance and contributing to a full-year adjusted pretax profit of $1.8 billion.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Sunny Optical, Greentown China

  • In the US, the March CPI came in below estimates at negative 0.1% m-o-m (0.1% e / 0.2% p) and 2.4% y-o-y (2.5% e / 2.8% p). This was driven by lower energy costs, as well as a decline in discretionary spending such as airfares, used vehicles and hotels. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) slowed to 0.1% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.2% p) and 2.8% y-o-y (3.0% e / 3.1% p).

  • The White House has clarified that US President Donald Trump’s total tariffs on Chinese imports stands at 145%, comprising a 125% reciprocal tariff rate on top of the existing 20% duty imposed earlier in February and March.

Malaysian Banks Screen; Stick with RHB Bank and CIMB

By Victor Galliano

  • RHB Bank remains our Malaysian bank top pick, as shown in our scorecard; CIMB shares have de-rated markedly year-to-date and are deep value
  • Scorecard topping RHB Bank has strong fundamental value credentials and it is narrowing the gap on returns with peers, whilst also improving its delinquency ratio
  • CIMB ranks third on our scorecard, due to its high NPL ratio but credit quality is improving; we see scope for operating efficiency gains and it has very attractive valuations

SES AI Corp. – 1Q25 Revenue Preview Demonstrates Continuing Traction on Commercialization

By Water Tower Research

  • SES announced on Tuesday that its 1Q25 revenue would be $5-5.8 million, in line with prior guidance (see our summary note from last quarter).
  • At that time, the company said that FY25 revenue would be $15- 25 million.
  • In it 1Q25 preview, SES sighted the same revenue streams it had previously called out: materials. discovery for EV batteries, sales of its 2170 Li-ion cells into the drone space, and the beginning of the commercialization of its technology for BESS for data centers.

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Chagee Holdings, Suzuki Motor, Harley Davidson, Capri Holdings , Compass, Yoshinoya Holdings, Fast Retailing, Levi Strauss & Co, Aeon Fantasy and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): Chinese Tea Company Moves Forward with IPO Despite Macro Risks
  • Chagee IPO: Trading at a Discount to Peers but with Geopolitical Overhang
  • Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): The Current Playbook
  • Harley-Davidson Is Losing Speed: Will A New CEO Fix The Sales Slump Amid Tariff Turmoil?
  • Capri Unstitched: A Versace Sale Could Unlock Value for CPRI
  • Compass Group: Initiation of Coverage
  • Yoshinoya Holdings (9861 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update
  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Profit Targets After Q2 Results
  • Levi Strauss Rides DTC Momentum—But Will Tariffs Dent the Denim Giant?
  • Aeon Fantasy (4343 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): Chinese Tea Company Moves Forward with IPO Despite Macro Risks

By IPO Boutique

  • Chinese Tea Company is moving ahead with the IPO despite heavy Macro-Economic winds.
  • The company is seeking up to $412m with a high-end pricing and already includes $205m worth of buying on the cover of the prospectus.
  • There are. more questions than answers regarding this IPO due to the current uncertainty in the market. 

Chagee IPO: Trading at a Discount to Peers but with Geopolitical Overhang

By Nicholas Tan

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US)  is looking to raise up to US$411m in its upcoming US IPO.
  • It is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our initial thoughts on valuations. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the announcement of the US$1.1 billion secondary offering, Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)’s shares have remained broadly unchanged at the undisturbed price of JPY1570.5 per share (7 April).
  • It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Suzuki’s share performance is the joint best among recent large placements.
  • However, the shares have underperformed the Nikkei 225 index (up 7.9%). The offering will likely be priced on 14 April. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

Harley-Davidson Is Losing Speed: Will A New CEO Fix The Sales Slump Amid Tariff Turmoil?

By Baptista Research

  • Harley-Davidson is navigating a critical crossroads as it searches for a new CEO to replace Jochen Zeitz, who recently announced plans to retire after five years at the helm.
  • This leadership transition comes at a precarious time for the iconic motorcycle brand, which is grappling with a sustained decline in sales, intensifying macroeconomic pressures, and the looming threat of retaliatory tariffs—particularly from the European Union.
  • In 2024, global retail sales dropped by 7%, with international sales falling a steep 13%, reflecting a broader downturn in discretionary spending.

Capri Unstitched: A Versace Sale Could Unlock Value for CPRI

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Capri Holdings’ sale of Versace to Prada removes a structurally weak asset, shifting its balance sheet from net debt to net cash, simplifying its brand portfolio for sharper strategic focus.
  • Post-Transaction, Capri trades at just 4.4x EBITDA despite becoming a leaner, debt-free luxury group with two globally recognized brands — a setup primed for significant multiple expansion and investor re-rating.
  • A sum-of-the-parts valuation excluding Versace suggests Capri’s fair value is $30–33 per share, offering investors over 100% upside as the company pivots from portfolio fixer-upper to focused luxury contender.

Compass Group: Initiation of Coverage

By Baptista Research

  • Compass Group PLC has released its full-year 2024 financial results, showcasing a strong performance with a 16% increase in operating profit and an 11% growth in organic revenue.
  • The company reported a margin progression of 30 basis points, taking it to 7.1%.
  • This has been complemented by a net new business growth of 4.2%, further gaining momentum in the second half of the year.

Yoshinoya Holdings (9861 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Consolidated sales reached JPY205.0bn (+9.3% YoY), with operating profit at JPY7.3bn (-8.4% YoY) and net income JPY3.8bn (-32.1% YoY).
  • The company forecasts FY02/26 sales at JPY225.0bn (+9.8% YoY), with operating profit expected to rise 1.3% YoY.
  • The company achieved JPY187.5bn sales in FY02/24, surpassing its JPY180.0bn target, due to agile menu price revisions.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Profit Targets After Q2 Results

By Nico Rosti

  • Mark Chadwick highlighted Fast Retailing (9983 JP) ‘s outlook in 2 recent insights, before and after Q2 earnings: his DCF model for this stock suggests roughly a +13% upside.
  • This week the stock rallied from the crash at the start of the week, closing a bit higher than the previous week (it had closed 1 week down, CC=-1).
  • Assuming the stock may rally further from here, pushed by good Q2 results, let’s have a look to our model to analyze some profit targets.

Levi Strauss Rides DTC Momentum—But Will Tariffs Dent the Denim Giant?

By Baptista Research

  • Levi Strauss & Co. reported strong first-quarter fiscal 2025 results, exhibiting growth across key financial metrics amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment.
  • The company’s strategic shift towards a Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) model has begun to bear fruit, as evidenced by a 9% increase in organic net revenue, primarily driven by a 12% rise in DTC sales.
  • These results showcase the impact of successful new store openings, positive comparable growth, and robust e-commerce performance.

Aeon Fantasy (4343 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • FY02/25 sales increased by 6.7% YoY, with operating profit up 21.2% YoY, but recurring profit declined 23.4% YoY.
  • FY02/26 forecasts sales of JPY92.2bn (+5.7% YoY), operating profit of JPY7.3bn (+68.0% YoY), and net income of JPY2.5bn.
  • The company plans to open new facility formats and expand in regional cities, focusing on profitability and efficiency.

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Apr 12
0

Most Read: Shibaura Electronics, Tsuruha Holdings, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index, Posco Future M, CJ Corp, Chagee Holdings, Samsung SDI and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Minebea Mitsumi Overbids Yageo for Shibaura Electronics (6957)
  • Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) – Tsuruha Earnings In a Week – Still Good To Be Long The Ratio
  • China ETF Inflows & Implications: Central Huijin’s Huge Buying
  • Korea Short Selling: Biggest Changes in Shorts & Trade Performance
  • Corporate Act Amendment Takes Unexpected Turn: Watch for Holdco Momentum Plays Post-June Election
  • Chagee Holdings IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Clearing Up the Confusion: Ex-Rights Trading in Korean Rights Offerings
  • Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): Chinese Tea Company Moves Forward with IPO Despite Macro Risks
  • Chagee IPO: Trading at a Discount to Peers but with Geopolitical Overhang
  • UK: GDP Seasonal Surge Before Slowing

Minebea Mitsumi Overbids Yageo for Shibaura Electronics (6957)

By Travis Lundy

  • In early February, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) made an unsolicited bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at ¥4,300/share. They had approached in October 2024, and continued approaches through end-January.
  • Shibaura’s bankers approached Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) in January. Due diligence, then bids. They bid ¥4,600. Not enough said the SC. Then Trump. Then ¥4,400. Now ¥4,500 accepted 9 April.
  • But Trump tariffs relief came 9 April US time. And the Offer Price is below the mid-point of ALL three different financial advisors. I think this is not done yet.

Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) – Tsuruha Earnings In a Week – Still Good To Be Long The Ratio

By Travis Lundy

  • Tsuruha and Welcia are on the road to a merger, where Tsuruha takes over Welcia but Aeon ends up owning “more than 50% but less than 51%” of Tsuruha.
  • The Price Ratio is now 4.24x. Trailing EPS ratios is >5. Forward EPS ratios are further above 5. BVPS ratio? Near 5. Welcia grows storecount. Tsuruha makes more money/store.
  • Tsuruha changed its FY-end to match that of Welcia/Aeon so both will report earnings/guidance in just over 3 weeks. That will likely influence the ratio.

China ETF Inflows & Implications: Central Huijin’s Huge Buying

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearly US$22bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs over the last 3 trading days, reversing outflows that started in mid February.
  • Central Huijin has announced that it will be increasing its ETF holdings to maintain smooth operation of China’s capital markets. The rest of the National Team will be buying too.
  • There are multiple implications of the huge ETF creations in a short time frame and a reversal of flows will lead to a reversion in a bunch of trades.

Korea Short Selling: Biggest Changes in Shorts & Trade Performance

By Brian Freitas

  • The resumption of short selling in Korea came at a good time for investors, giving them some additional tools to manage market volatility.
  • Short interest has increased from 0.17% to 0.23% of market cap for the KOSPI market and from 0.46% to 0.63% for the KOSDAR market.
  • The KOSPI/KOSDAQ ratio has reverted a bit on profit taking, and the forecast index deletions have recovered a bit but should continue to see increase short interest.

Corporate Act Amendment Takes Unexpected Turn: Watch for Holdco Momentum Plays Post-June Election

By Sanghyun Park

  • The word on the street is the Dems are banking on their candidate winning in June, then clearing the veto and pushing the Corporate Act amendment through immediately.
  • What seemed like a dead issue for the Corporate Act amendment has turned into a surprise, shifting market momentum and potentially impacting the Korean stock scene.
  • It could shift the Korean market’s focus to long-term governance improvements, targeting major holdcos like CJ, Hanwha, GS, Doosan, Mobis, SK, and Samsung C&T, with June’s election key.

Chagee Holdings IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Chagee Holdings is target price of $46.7 per share, representing 67% higher than the high end of the IPO price range ($28 per share). 
  • Our base case valuation is based on a P/E of 21.4x on our estimated net profit of 2.9 billion RMB in 2025. 
  • We used a very conservative valuation multiple, mainly due to the extremely high macro risks related to the ongoing tariff dispute between China and the United States.

Clearing Up the Confusion: Ex-Rights Trading in Korean Rights Offerings

By Sanghyun Park

  • Not much juice at ex-rights — price move’s small, and shorting’s risky with recall risk and having to compensate the lender for lost rights.
  • Some locals chase rights instead, but it’s not really a go-to trade with all the cost/efficiency uncertainty.
  • First round price pre–ex-rights sets the floor for arb margins and anchors rights pricing once they start trading — key level to keep in the playbook.

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): Chinese Tea Company Moves Forward with IPO Despite Macro Risks

By IPO Boutique

  • Chinese Tea Company is moving ahead with the IPO despite heavy Macro-Economic winds.
  • The company is seeking up to $412m with a high-end pricing and already includes $205m worth of buying on the cover of the prospectus.
  • There are. more questions than answers regarding this IPO due to the current uncertainty in the market. 

Chagee IPO: Trading at a Discount to Peers but with Geopolitical Overhang

By Nicholas Tan

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US)  is looking to raise up to US$411m in its upcoming US IPO.
  • It is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our initial thoughts on valuations. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

UK: GDP Seasonal Surge Before Slowing

By Phil Rush

  • Fundamental causes should not be assigned to UK GDP surging far beyond consensus expectations again in February, despite the notability of Q1 growth tracking 0.7% q-o-q.
  • Residual seasonality has dominated the post-pandemic growth profile, and the recent resilience merely matches it. Stagnation for the rest of the year is the consequence.
  • Disruptive and volatile US trade policy will also depress the underlying economic trend beneath the spurious seasonals. We now bake both more fully into our modal forecasts.

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