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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Apr 13
0

Daily Brief Japan: Tsuruha Holdings, Shibaura Electronics, JX Advanced Metals, Meitetsu Transport, Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Tsuruha (3391 JP): Welcia (3141 JP) Share Exchange and Aeon (8267 JP) Partial Offer Unattractive
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Abacus Storage, Gold Road, Mayne Pharma, Canvest, ESR, Shibaura Electronics
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Apr 2025)
  • Meitetsu Transport (9077JP) Confirms Closure of Last Department Store
  • Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Salonpas Holds Fort; New Products Ramp-Up; Stable FY26 Expected
  • Effectiveness of MBO Special Committee Is Linked to Effectiveness of Independent Directors

Tsuruha (3391 JP): Welcia (3141 JP) Share Exchange and Aeon (8267 JP) Partial Offer Unattractive

By Arun George

  • Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) announced a merger through a share exchange followed by a partial tender offer by Aeon for a 50.90% stake of the merged entity.
  • The share exchange terms favour Welcia over Tsuruha shareholders. The Tsuruha shareholder vote is high risk as Orbis, the second-largest shareholder, intends to vote NO. 
  • Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)’s follow-up partial offer for Tsuruha is unattractive compared to its previous offer for the Oasis stake, peer multiples and premium to the undisturbed price.   

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Abacus Storage, Gold Road, Mayne Pharma, Canvest, ESR, Shibaura Electronics

By David Blennerhassett

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Apr 2025)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • The TOPIX Inclusions of Baudroie (4413 JP) and JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) are expected to take place at the end of April 2025.
  • Separately, the 0.75x TOPIX Liquidity Factor removal event will also take place at the same time. We expect one-way flows of US$514mn for this event.

Meitetsu Transport (9077JP) Confirms Closure of Last Department Store

By Michael Causton

  • Until quite recently, Nagoya had seven department stores but will soon have just four. 
  • This follows Meitetsu’s decision to close its flagship store to clear the way for a major redevelopment of the station area.
  • The new development will include retail and so bring some competition to Takashimaya, which now dominates department store retailing in the city, but not before 2033.

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Salonpas Holds Fort; New Products Ramp-Up; Stable FY26 Expected

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) reported double digit revenue growth in FY25 on the back of 16% YoY growth in Salonpas focused OTC pharmaceutical products.
  • Rx business revenues grew 5% YoY as Zicthoru, Apohide, Combipatch, Vivelle-Dot etc clocked healthy numbers excepting Mohrus product line.
  • Hisamitsu expects FY26 revenue to be ¥165B, up 6% YoY, driven by new products, with net profit growth to decelerate on higher cost.

Effectiveness of MBO Special Committee Is Linked to Effectiveness of Independent Directors

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The key is whether the effectiveness of special committee can fairly guide MBO, but whether the independent outside directors are truly independent, properly informed, and skilled is an important assumption.
  • Since companies with high foreign shareholdings generally have higher corporate governance practices, there are concerns about practices in MBO cases for many companies that do not have high foreign shareholdings.
  • When a company whose “goal is IPO” conducts MBO when the stock price is lower than at IPO, there are concerns about whether the special committee will guide MBO fairly.

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Apr 13
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Shibaura Electronics, Hang Seng Index, MNTN and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Abacus Storage, Gold Road, Mayne Pharma, Canvest, ESR, Shibaura Electronics
  • Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Apr 07–11): Vol Spikes, Breadth Cracks & ETF Activity Surges
  • MNTN IPO Preview: Fidelity-Backed Category Creator of Performance TV, Watch This Offering Closely

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Abacus Storage, Gold Road, Mayne Pharma, Canvest, ESR, Shibaura Electronics

By David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Apr 07–11): Vol Spikes, Breadth Cracks & ETF Activity Surges

By John Ley

  • A challenging week for HK single stocks, with weak breadth and sharp losses punctuated by a gap lower to start the week.
  • Monday marked the highest options volume day of the year, with a spike in the Put/Call ratio and unusual ETF option activity.
  • Implied vols surged, with the average implied vol percentile at very elevated levels.

MNTN IPO Preview: Fidelity-Backed Category Creator of Performance TV, Watch This Offering Closely

By Andrei Zakharov

  • MNTN, Inc. (pronounced “mountain”), leader in OTT advertising software and first mover of PTV in the United States, filed to go public.
  • Founder-Led adtech company was backed by Fidelity, BlackRock, Greycroft, SV Angel, Qualcomm Ventures, and Baroda Ventures, among others.
  • I like the company’s leadership position,  high growth, FCF positive business and $60B+ near-term market opportunity centering around SMBs in the United States.

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Apr 13
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: JX Advanced Metals, James Hardie Industries Plc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Apr 2025)
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: James Hardie/Azek, China’s Maritime/Shipping Sectors, CK Hutch, HKBN

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Apr 2025)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • The TOPIX Inclusions of Baudroie (4413 JP) and JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) are expected to take place at the end of April 2025.
  • Separately, the 0.75x TOPIX Liquidity Factor removal event will also take place at the same time. We expect one-way flows of US$514mn for this event.

Last Week in Event SPACE: James Hardie/Azek, China’s Maritime/Shipping Sectors, CK Hutch, HKBN

By David Blennerhassett

  • James Hardie (JHX AU)‘s merger with Azek (AZEK US) isn’t inherently a “bad” deal; but arguably risky and expensive. Yet JHX is down a massive 23% on the news.
  • The Biden Administration’s USTR Report (bad data/analytics) was a disaster. But true to form, if it allows the USG to stomp on China, Trump is going to take it.
  • The irony is that CKH (1 HK)‘s Panama-port sale was probably prompted, at least in part, by a desire to get out of a situation which was becoming increasingly political.

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Apr 13
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Meitetsu Transport, Ecopro BM and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Meitetsu Transport (9077JP) Confirms Closure of Last Department Store
  • Korea: Short Selling Data Analysis (Which Stocks Are the Gainers and the Losers?)

Meitetsu Transport (9077JP) Confirms Closure of Last Department Store

By Michael Causton

  • Until quite recently, Nagoya had seven department stores but will soon have just four. 
  • This follows Meitetsu’s decision to close its flagship store to clear the way for a major redevelopment of the station area.
  • The new development will include retail and so bring some competition to Takashimaya, which now dominates department store retailing in the city, but not before 2033.

Korea: Short Selling Data Analysis (Which Stocks Are the Gainers and the Losers?)

By Douglas Kim

  • We provide the short selling data analysis of the Korean stock market including the top 20 stocks in KOSPI with the highest short interest ratios in KOSPI and KOSDAQ, respectively. 
  • There have been noticeable shorting on the Ecopro Group companies and other key names in the rechargeable battery sector including Posco Future M, L&F, and SK IE Technology. 
  • Shorting has generally worked for KOSDAQ names with higher short interest ratios but not for KOSPI names in the past two weeks. 

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Apr 13
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Meitetsu Transport, Ecopro BM and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Meitetsu Transport (9077JP) Confirms Closure of Last Department Store
  • Korea: Short Selling Data Analysis (Which Stocks Are the Gainers and the Losers?)

Meitetsu Transport (9077JP) Confirms Closure of Last Department Store

By Michael Causton

  • Until quite recently, Nagoya had seven department stores but will soon have just four. 
  • This follows Meitetsu’s decision to close its flagship store to clear the way for a major redevelopment of the station area.
  • The new development will include retail and so bring some competition to Takashimaya, which now dominates department store retailing in the city, but not before 2033.

Korea: Short Selling Data Analysis (Which Stocks Are the Gainers and the Losers?)

By Douglas Kim

  • We provide the short selling data analysis of the Korean stock market including the top 20 stocks in KOSPI with the highest short interest ratios in KOSPI and KOSDAQ, respectively. 
  • There have been noticeable shorting on the Ecopro Group companies and other key names in the rechargeable battery sector including Posco Future M, L&F, and SK IE Technology. 
  • Shorting has generally worked for KOSDAQ names with higher short interest ratios but not for KOSPI names in the past two weeks. 

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Apr 13
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Salonpas Holds Fort; New Products Ramp-Up; Stable FY26 Expected

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Salonpas Holds Fort; New Products Ramp-Up; Stable FY26 Expected

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) reported double digit revenue growth in FY25 on the back of 16% YoY growth in Salonpas focused OTC pharmaceutical products.
  • Rx business revenues grew 5% YoY as Zicthoru, Apohide, Combipatch, Vivelle-Dot etc clocked healthy numbers excepting Mohrus product line.
  • Hisamitsu expects FY26 revenue to be ¥165B, up 6% YoY, driven by new products, with net profit growth to decelerate on higher cost.

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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Apr 13
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Tsuruha Holdings, Shandong Fengxiang, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tsuruha (3391 JP): Welcia (3141 JP) Share Exchange and Aeon (8267 JP) Partial Offer Unattractive
  • Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG’s Preconditional Privatisation Offer at HK$2.00
  • Effectiveness of MBO Special Committee Is Linked to Effectiveness of Independent Directors

Tsuruha (3391 JP): Welcia (3141 JP) Share Exchange and Aeon (8267 JP) Partial Offer Unattractive

By Arun George

  • Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) announced a merger through a share exchange followed by a partial tender offer by Aeon for a 50.90% stake of the merged entity.
  • The share exchange terms favour Welcia over Tsuruha shareholders. The Tsuruha shareholder vote is high risk as Orbis, the second-largest shareholder, intends to vote NO. 
  • Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)’s follow-up partial offer for Tsuruha is unattractive compared to its previous offer for the Oasis stake, peer multiples and premium to the undisturbed price.   

Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG’s Preconditional Privatisation Offer at HK$2.00

By Arun George

  • Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) has disclosed a preconditional privatisation offer from PAG, the controlling shareholder, at HK$2.00 per H share, a 33.3% premium to the undisturbed price.  
  • The precondition relates to regulatory approvals. The key conditions for the privatisation will be approval by at least 75% independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). 
  • The shareholders with blocking stakes which have not provided irrevocables will likely be supportive as the offer is reasonable and there is a potential scrip alternative. 

Effectiveness of MBO Special Committee Is Linked to Effectiveness of Independent Directors

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The key is whether the effectiveness of special committee can fairly guide MBO, but whether the independent outside directors are truly independent, properly informed, and skilled is an important assumption.
  • Since companies with high foreign shareholdings generally have higher corporate governance practices, there are concerns about practices in MBO cases for many companies that do not have high foreign shareholdings.
  • When a company whose “goal is IPO” conducts MBO when the stock price is lower than at IPO, there are concerns about whether the special committee will guide MBO fairly.

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Apr 13
0

Daily Brief Financials: S&P 500 INDEX, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Markets: Why This Sell-Off Is Different. UPDATE
  • HSCEI Index Options Weekly (Apr 7-11): Vol Reset, Skew Reprices, and 8,000 Strike in Focus
  • HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 07–11): Vol Shifts and Early Signs of USD Toxicity

Global Markets: Why This Sell-Off Is Different. UPDATE

By John Ley

  • We revisit key cross-asset signals as traditional safe havens fail to respond in familiar ways.
  • The past 8 days have delivered a combination of asset moves with few, if any,  historical parallels.
  • With trust in U.S. safe haven assets under pressure, we explore emerging themes and ramifications.

HSCEI Index Options Weekly (Apr 7-11): Vol Reset, Skew Reprices, and 8,000 Strike in Focus

By John Ley

  • Brutal start to the week, with the holiday-shortened calendar and continued global weakness weighing on Monday’s open.
  • Implied vol surged early, with skew steepening and tail demand reflected in out-of-the-money Put pricing
  • We highlight significant activity at the 8,000 strike and its implications for near-term spot and vol dynamics.

HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 07–11): Vol Shifts and Early Signs of USD Toxicity

By John Ley

  • A volatile week for HSI, with sharp moves in price, volume, and implied volatility concentrated around Monday’s gap lower.
  • We discuss the shift in spot-vol dynamics and how it may influence short-term vol trading.
  • Changes in open interest and vol structure are examined in the context of ongoing global tensions.

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Apr 13
0

Most Read: Bestechnic Shanghai , Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders , Posco Future M, De Grey Mining, Tsuruha Holdings, Suzuki Motor, CRH , Hyundai Rotem Company, Shandong Fengxiang and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Central Huijin’s ETF Creations Skew Performance
  • Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN): OFS & Potential Global Index Inclusion
  • Korea Short Selling: Biggest Changes in Shorts & Trade Performance
  • Quiddity Leaderboard MV Jr-Gold Miners Jun25: Flow Expectations
  • Tsuruha (3391 JP): Welcia (3141 JP) Share Exchange and Aeon (8267 JP) Partial Offer Unattractive
  • Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): The Current Playbook
  • [Quiddity Index Apr25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Lots of Intraview Changes Possible
  • Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (Starting 14 April 2025)
  • HEW: Sipping ECB Dove-Juice
  • Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG’s Preconditional Privatisation Offer at HK$2.00

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Central Huijin’s ETF Creations Skew Performance

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 1 change for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 4 changes for the STAR100 Index in June.
  • We estimate turnover of 1.9% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 4.5% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated round-trip trade is CNY 7.5bn (US$1.02bn).
  • Large ETF inflows could have led to the recent underperformance of a long add/ short delete trade. That could reverse once markets stabilize or when the passives trade the rebalance.

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN): OFS & Potential Global Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN) has announced an Offer for Sale of 4.01% of the Government holding in the stock. That is INR 41bn (US$481m) at the last close.
  • The increase in float brings the stock very close to inclusion in a global index at the May rebalance. However, that is dependent on how the stock performs from here.
  • Inclusion in the index will bring around US$222m/ 2x ADV of passive inflows and could help support the stock.

Korea Short Selling: Biggest Changes in Shorts & Trade Performance

By Brian Freitas

  • The resumption of short selling in Korea came at a good time for investors, giving them some additional tools to manage market volatility.
  • Short interest has increased from 0.17% to 0.23% of market cap for the KOSPI market and from 0.46% to 0.63% for the KOSDAR market.
  • The KOSPI/KOSDAQ ratio has reverted a bit on profit taking, and the forecast index deletions have recovered a bit but should continue to see increase short interest.

Quiddity Leaderboard MV Jr-Gold Miners Jun25: Flow Expectations

By Travis Lundy

  • The MV Jr-Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. 
  • This index is reviewed semiannually in March and September. There will be no index changes for the June 2025 index rebal event but there will be capping flows.
  • We expect one-way flows of US$81mm for June 2025 which translates to a turnover of 1.4%.

Tsuruha (3391 JP): Welcia (3141 JP) Share Exchange and Aeon (8267 JP) Partial Offer Unattractive

By Arun George

  • Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) announced a merger through a share exchange followed by a partial tender offer by Aeon for a 50.90% stake of the merged entity.
  • The share exchange terms favour Welcia over Tsuruha shareholders. The Tsuruha shareholder vote is high risk as Orbis, the second-largest shareholder, intends to vote NO. 
  • Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)’s follow-up partial offer for Tsuruha is unattractive compared to its previous offer for the Oasis stake, peer multiples and premium to the undisturbed price.   

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the announcement of the US$1.1 billion secondary offering, Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)’s shares have remained broadly unchanged at the undisturbed price of JPY1570.5 per share (7 April).
  • It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Suzuki’s share performance is the joint best among recent large placements.
  • However, the shares have underperformed the Nikkei 225 index (up 7.9%). The offering will likely be priced on 14 April. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

[Quiddity Index Apr25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Lots of Intraview Changes Possible

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
  • We expect two regular changes in June 2025. BUT… there are multiple live spin-off and M&A events likely to trigger intra-review index changes. Three are likely!

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (Starting 14 April 2025)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks starting 14 April. 
  • Our top 10 picks in the most recent bi-weekly was down 2.5% on average, outperforming KOSPI which was down 4.9% in the same period. 
  • The top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include Binggrae, Hyundai Rotem, Krafton, Nongshim, SK Telecom, Hanwha Systems, APR, SK Inc, Korean Air, and Samsung Heavy Industries. 

HEW: Sipping ECB Dove-Juice

By Phil Rush

  • Market disruptions occurred over the past week due to volatility in reciprocal and China tariffs, affecting the significance of data releases such as low US inflation and surging UK GDP.
  • Next week, UK unemployment and inflation data may lean hawkishly due to resilient underlying trends and the delayed impact of Spring stock in clothing store price samples.
  • The European Central Bank (ECB) is also being pushed towards making another cut on Thursday due to market movements.

Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG’s Preconditional Privatisation Offer at HK$2.00

By Arun George

  • Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) has disclosed a preconditional privatisation offer from PAG, the controlling shareholder, at HK$2.00 per H share, a 33.3% premium to the undisturbed price.  
  • The precondition relates to regulatory approvals. The key conditions for the privatisation will be approval by at least 75% independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). 
  • The shareholders with blocking stakes which have not provided irrevocables will likely be supportive as the offer is reasonable and there is a potential scrip alternative. 

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 11th): Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 11th): Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, China Hongqiao

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 11th): Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, China Hongqiao

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Apr 11th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), CNBM (3323 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK).

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