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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Apr 03
0

Daily Brief Financials: Shin Kong Financial Holding, MS&AD Insurance, Atour Lifestyle Holdings, Ho Bee Land Ltd, S&P/ASX 200, SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Yuexiu Property , Clip Money , Spectral AI and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Shin Kong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) Deal Gets FSC Approval – Still A Good Swap
  • Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Jun25: Taishin-Shin Kong Merger Could Cause Two Changes
  • Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious Blah Blah” (Apr25), 🚨 AGAIN Read TSE Update Doc 3 🚨
  • [Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) Review]: Higher-Quality Growth Extending into 2025
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (02-Apr-2025): Warburg Pincus buys Japan living sector.
  • S&P/ASX 200 Volatility Rises: Market Down Amid US Tariffs and S&P 500 Futures Plunge
  • SmartStop Self Storage (SMA): Upside Surprise, IPO Pops 8% at Open and Trades Higher
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Clip Money is a rapidly growing NCR-backed start-up based in Ottawa
  • MDAI: 2024 Results

Shin Kong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) Deal Gets FSC Approval – Still A Good Swap

By Travis Lundy

  • Late Monday, The Financial Supervisory Commission approved the merger where Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) is to be absorbed by Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT). Announcement here.
  • Yesterday, the chairmen of both Shin Kong and Taishin decided the merger base date, which has been set a bit further out than even I expected, at 24 July 2025.
  • The terms tightened yesterday. There is still a worthwhile switch to be done (or arb if you have cheap borrow), and NEWCO is cheap to peers, STILL.

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Jun25: Taishin-Shin Kong Merger Could Cause Two Changes

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the June 2025 index rebal event.
  • Currently, we see one change for T50 and one change for T100.

Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious Blah Blah” (Apr25), 🚨 AGAIN Read TSE Update Doc 3 🚨

By Travis Lundy

  • TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
  • 611 new CGRs filed since 1-Mar-25. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff file tool. Input a name, see the changes in the reports.
  • The JPX was curiously quiet itself as far as I can tell. No new governance reports, documents, etc, though there is a small consultation this month on the JPXNikkei400.

[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) Review]: Higher-Quality Growth Extending into 2025

By Eric Wen

  • Atour (ATAT) reported C4Q24 revenue 0.7%/5.8% higher than our estimate/consensus, which translate to 0.5%/4.7% higher in non-GAAP net income, thanks to hotel supply chain consolidation and pillow retail sales.
  • Management’s guidance for a steeper-than-consensus decline in 2025’s RevPAR are conservative in our view. We see a “low-before-high” RevPAR pattern in 2025, supported by tightened hotel supply and government stimuli.
  • We keep the TP at US$37/ADS and maintain as travel sector TOP BUY

Asia Real Estate Tracker (02-Apr-2025): Warburg Pincus buys Japan living sector.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Warburg Pincus invests in Japan living sector by acquiring a 16,000-room portfolio.
  • Proprium Capital beats out Ho Bee Land with a $228M bid for an Australian homebuilder.
  • Hillhouse’s Rava secures majority stake in Dash Living with $150M investment; Ex-Macquarie exec Robson to advise on ESR privatization.

S&P/ASX 200 Volatility Rises: Market Down Amid US Tariffs and S&P 500 Futures Plunge

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs led to significant declines in S&P 500 (-3.5%) and Nasdaq-100 (-4.4%) futures, with the VIX spiking from 20.00 to 23.45.
  • Impact on Australia: Australia faces a 10% tariff, with the overall economic impact expected to be limited.
  • S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) Response: The S&P/ASX 200 dropped 2.1% in early trading, with its VIX index rising from 13.20 to 15.43. These are historically high but not extreme levels.

SmartStop Self Storage (SMA): Upside Surprise, IPO Pops 8% at Open and Trades Higher

By IPO Boutique

  • SmartStop priced a full-size deal of 27.0mm shares at $30.00 and opened for trading at $32.40 for a gain of 8% at first trade.
  • The offering finished five-times oversubscribed with the underwriter stating that the deal had sizable participation from long-only and REIT-dedicated accounts.
  • A low-risk storage unit company which pays a monthly dividend, like SmartStop, attracted the right buyer for this deal to work given the current economic environment.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In the US, the JOLTS job openings decreased to 7.57 mn (7.66 mn e / 7.76 mn p) in February.
  • The job openings rate fell slightly to 4.5% (4.6% e / 4.7% revised p), while the layoffs rate was stable at 1.1% (1.1% revised p).
  • Separately, the March ISM manufacturing index declined to 49.0 (49.5 e / 50.3 p). This was driven by a drop in the new orders and employment components, while the prices paid component increased. 

Clip Money is a rapidly growing NCR-backed start-up based in Ottawa

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Clip Money is a rapidly growing NCR-backed start-up based in Ottawa, Canada, and operating in Canada and the US.
  • It is helping physical stores and businesses quickly, safely, and less expensively deposit cash into their bank accounts, as well as replenishing notes and coins for store operations.
  • The company uses its proprietary software platform to facilitate cash management, and its network is made up of a network of DropBoxes, NCR ATMs located in retail outlets and a summer roll out at Green Dot locations.

MDAI: 2024 Results

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Spectral AI is developing an AI-guided predictive medical device that employs multispectral imaging (MSI) to estimate a wound’s capacity to heal.
  • The company is pursuing indications in burn and diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) with the former receiving support from BARDA & other government agencies.
  • Spectral is distinguished by its combination of MSI and AI to improve diagnoses.

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Apr 03
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Chagee Holdings, WH Group, Tesla , Sarimelati Kencana PT, Morito Co Ltd, Lifevantage , Betterware de Mexico Sab de CV, Unilever Nigeria and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case
  • Chagee Pre-IPO – Market Leading Growth but Showing Signs of Fatigue
  • HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (March 2025)
  • TESLA’S Outlook After Rumors Elon Musk Will Step Back from DOGE
  • Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings – The Business Model, the Concerns Behind and Valuation Outlook
  • Sarimelati Kencana (PZZA IJ) – Profitable New Beginnings
  • Morito (9837 JP) – Operating Profit for FY25/11 Is Recording a New High…
  • LifeVantage Corporation – MindBody Launches in International Markets
  • BWMX: Snapping the Catalog: Spring Drives Newness, Higher Prices; Reiterate Buy
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 2 April (ING Group | Unilever | Alfen)

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US), a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$400-500 million through a Nasdaq IPO. 
  • According to iResearch, as of December 31, 2024, Chagee was the largest premium freshly made tea drink brand in China by the number of stores.
  • The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.   

Chagee Pre-IPO – Market Leading Growth but Showing Signs of Fatigue

By Nicholas Tan

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is planning to raise up to US$500m through its upcoming US IPO.
  • Chagee is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (March 2025)

By David Mudd

TESLA’S Outlook After Rumors Elon Musk Will Step Back from DOGE

By Nico Rosti

Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings – The Business Model, the Concerns Behind and Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Chagee adopts the “1+1+9+N” business model, which ensures the successful replication of the single store model. However, we saw performance decline in 2024, and future performance growth sustainability is uncertain.
  • In terms of valuation, comparable companies include Starbucks and MIXUE. We think valuation of Chagee should be lower than MIXUE and Starbucks as both have proved themselves in the industry.
  • Future growth would inevitably slow down. Investors may need more ‘safety margins’ on valuation because despite short-term strong demand, investors need to be alert to the performance validation after IPO.  

Sarimelati Kencana (PZZA IJ) – Profitable New Beginnings

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sarimelati Kencana (PZZA IJ) booked a profit in 4Q2024, and the company will remain profitable in 1Q2024, with a strong uptick expected in 2Q2024 and a profit expected for FY2025. 
  • The company has been focused on reducing costs and improving efficiencies, booking a record gross profit margin in 4Q2024, and is now able to book a profit with lower sales. 
  • Sarimelati Kencana remains a leading quick-service food provider in Indonesia, with prospects improving as it starts to book sustainable profits, with significant upside if it books sales at pre-COVID levels. 

Morito (9837 JP) – Operating Profit for FY25/11 Is Recording a New High…

By Sessa Investment Research

  • For FY2024/11, MORITO (hereafter, the Company) reported net sales of JPY 48,537 mn (+0.0% YoY), operating profit of JPY 2,868 mn (+16.4% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 3,003 mn (+8.4% YoY), and profit attributable to owners of parent (hereafter, net profit) of JPY 2,572 mn (+16.0% YoY).
  • Net sales rose slightly, but gross profit margin grew to 29.1%, marking record highs for net sales, operating profit, and ordinary profit.
  • For FY2025/11, Morito projects net sales of JPY 53,000 mn (+9.2% YoY), operating profit of JPY 3,100 mn (+8.1% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 3,200 mn (+6.5% YoY), and net profit of JPY 2,700 mn (+5.0% YoY).

LifeVantage Corporation – MindBody Launches in International Markets

By Water Tower Research

  • LFVN announced it is expanding its MindBody GLP- 1 System to markets outside of the US beginning on March 15.
  • The MB System, as the product is known internationally, will be available to consultants and customers in Japan, and exclusively to consultants in most other markets, with those markets making the product available to customers at the end of April.
  • Therefore, we do not expect the full benefit of the international launch to have an impact on financials until 4QFY25.

BWMX: Snapping the Catalog: Spring Drives Newness, Higher Prices; Reiterate Buy

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $22.50 price target for Betterware de Mexico after reviewing the April catalog.
  • As we have seen since 4Q24, the April catalog registered higher YoY SKU levels (up 4%) and pricing (up 12%), as management focused on newness, complete collections and expanding higher end offerings.
  • Further, even as the catalog shifts to Summer (with fans, cold drink holders and ice cube trays), the pace of discounting, while up YoY, continues to cool off month to month, with a 160 bp decline in the % of discounted items from March (to 28.2%, a low for 2025).

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 2 April (ING Group | Unilever | Alfen)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • ING Group | considering takeover in Italy • Unilever | acquires personal care brand Wild • Alfen | signs a multi-year framework agreement with Abloco Energy

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Apr 03
0

Daily Brief Australia: Dropsuite Ltd, S&P/ASX 200 and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Dropsuite (DSE AU): Scheme Vote on 9 May
  • Dropsuite (DSE AU): 9th May Vote On NinjaOne’s Offer
  • S&P/ASX 200 Volatility Rises: Market Down Amid US Tariffs and S&P 500 Futures Plunge

Dropsuite (DSE AU): Scheme Vote on 9 May

By Arun George

  • The Dropsuite Ltd (DSE AU) IE considers NinjaOne’s A$5.90 offer fair and reasonable as it is above its A$3.92-5.88 valuation range.
  • The offer is conditional on shareholder and FIRB approval. Despite the largest shareholder’s selldown, the vote remains low-risk.  
  • The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high. At the last close and for a 30 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.7%/11.5%.  

Dropsuite (DSE AU): 9th May Vote On NinjaOne’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 28th January 2025, Dropsuite Ltd (DSE AU), a backup, recovery and protection software company, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Texas-based IT automation outfit NinjaOne.
  • NinjaOne’s A$5.90/share Offer was a 34.1% premium to undisturbed. The Offer had the backing of Dropsuite’s largest shareholder, Topline Capital (31% – at the time!). Board/management held a further 9%.
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 9th May, and expected payment on or before the 30th May. The IE (BDO) says “fair & reasonable“.

S&P/ASX 200 Volatility Rises: Market Down Amid US Tariffs and S&P 500 Futures Plunge

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs led to significant declines in S&P 500 (-3.5%) and Nasdaq-100 (-4.4%) futures, with the VIX spiking from 20.00 to 23.45.
  • Impact on Australia: Australia faces a 10% tariff, with the overall economic impact expected to be limited.
  • S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) Response: The S&P/ASX 200 dropped 2.1% in early trading, with its VIX index rising from 13.20 to 15.43. These are historically high but not extreme levels.

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Apr 03
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Hanmi Semiconductor, LG Chem and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?
  • A Pair Trade Between LG Chem (Common) And LG Chem (Preferred)

Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?

By Brian Freitas

A Pair Trade Between LG Chem (Common) And LG Chem (Preferred)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) (common) and LG Chem (051915 KS) (preferred). 
  • The price ratio (LG Chem common/preferred) is now at 2.16x, which is more than 2 STD (standard deviations). Our trading strategy involves revert to the mean. 
  • One of the key reasons why LG Chem (preferred)’s share price has fared much worse YTD than LG Chem (common) is due to much larger selling by the foreign investors. 

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Apr 03
0

Daily Brief Singapore: IREIT Global and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • 10 in 10 with IREIT Global – Gateway to European Real Estate

10 in 10 with IREIT Global – Gateway to European Real Estate

By Geoff Howie

  • IREIT Global’s FY2024 revenue increased by 16.3% to €75.6 million, driven by B&M Portfolio acquisition and higher rental income.
  • Property operating expenses rose over 40% in FY2024 due to B&M Portfolio costs and a €4.1 million feasibility study.
  • IREIT’s aggregate leverage was 37.6% as of December 2024, with 97.2% of bank borrowings hedged against interest rate fluctuations.

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Apr 03
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Sarimelati Kencana PT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Sarimelati Kencana (PZZA IJ) – Profitable New Beginnings

Sarimelati Kencana (PZZA IJ) – Profitable New Beginnings

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sarimelati Kencana (PZZA IJ) booked a profit in 4Q2024, and the company will remain profitable in 1Q2024, with a strong uptick expected in 2Q2024 and a profit expected for FY2025. 
  • The company has been focused on reducing costs and improving efficiencies, booking a record gross profit margin in 4Q2024, and is now able to book a profit with lower sales. 
  • Sarimelati Kencana remains a leading quick-service food provider in Indonesia, with prospects improving as it starts to book sustainable profits, with significant upside if it books sales at pre-COVID levels. 

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Apr 03
0

Daily Brief United States: Chagee Holdings, Base Oil, Intel Corp, Tesla , Copa Holdings Sa Class A, Maximus Inc, Advanced Energy Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case
  • Chagee Pre-IPO – Market Leading Growth but Showing Signs of Fatigue
  • Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 31 March
  • Intel Vision Conf: New CEO Mr. TAN Does Not Hide that It Will Be Tough to Fix Intel
  • TESLA’S Outlook After Rumors Elon Musk Will Step Back from DOGE
  • Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings – The Business Model, the Concerns Behind and Valuation Outlook
  • Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 31 March
  • Copa Airlines’ Bold Expansion Plan: 13 New Jets, Massive Profits, & Unstoppable Growth!
  • Maximus Doubles Down on AI With A Bold New Accelerator — Is This The Buy Signal Investors Have Been Waiting For?
  • Advanced Energy Industries: The 5 Major Challenges That Can Hinder Growth In 2025! Major Drivers

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US), a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$400-500 million through a Nasdaq IPO. 
  • According to iResearch, as of December 31, 2024, Chagee was the largest premium freshly made tea drink brand in China by the number of stores.
  • The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.   

Chagee Pre-IPO – Market Leading Growth but Showing Signs of Fatigue

By Nicholas Tan

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is planning to raise up to US$500m through its upcoming US IPO.
  • Chagee is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 31 March

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils export price-discount to US domestic prices stays narrower in Q1 2025 vs year-earlier.
  • Narrower export price-discount points to more manageable supply surplus at end-2024 and early this year, when domestic demand faced seasonal slowdown.
  • More manageable supply surplus follows firm export volumes through H2 2024 and early this year.

Intel Vision Conf: New CEO Mr. TAN Does Not Hide that It Will Be Tough to Fix Intel

By Nicolas Baratte

  • CEO Mr TAN confronts what’s wrong: Intel needs better product performance, to listen to the market needs. Intel needs Foundry processes that support customers’ designs. Not the other way around. 
  • Product presentation very off-base: robotaxi, AI-PC, Gaudi 3 is back as Intel’s AI strategy. Foundry non-announcement: 18A risk production is starting – of course it is, otherwise 18A is flawed. 
  • Consensus is expecting a swift turnaround in 2026-27. There is currently no reason to believe this. On these rosy expectations, the stock trades at 19x 2026 EPS.

TESLA’S Outlook After Rumors Elon Musk Will Step Back from DOGE

By Nico Rosti

Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings – The Business Model, the Concerns Behind and Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Chagee adopts the “1+1+9+N” business model, which ensures the successful replication of the single store model. However, we saw performance decline in 2024, and future performance growth sustainability is uncertain.
  • In terms of valuation, comparable companies include Starbucks and MIXUE. We think valuation of Chagee should be lower than MIXUE and Starbucks as both have proved themselves in the industry.
  • Future growth would inevitably slow down. Investors may need more ‘safety margins’ on valuation because despite short-term strong demand, investors need to be alert to the performance validation after IPO.  

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 31 March

By Iain Pocock

  • Global base oils prices slip relative to firmer feedstock/competing fuel prices.
  • Base oils margins in most markets remain at levels that point to balanced-to-tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizing refiners to maintain higher output.
  • FOB Asia base oils prices fall vs gasoil prices.

Copa Airlines’ Bold Expansion Plan: 13 New Jets, Massive Profits, & Unstoppable Growth!

By Baptista Research

  • Copa Holdings delivered a mixed yet robust performance in the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, illustrating its resilience and operational efficiency in a fluctuating market.
  • Positively, the company reported an operating margin of 21.9% for the year, which reflects consistent execution of its business model focused on cost efficiency and operational excellence.
  • An increase in capacity by 8.6% year-over-year was aligned with previous guidance.

Maximus Doubles Down on AI With A Bold New Accelerator — Is This The Buy Signal Investors Have Been Waiting For?

By Baptista Research

  • The recent earnings results for Maximus Inc. portray a complex but promising landscape for the company, revealing both opportunities and challenges.
  • Financially, Maximus reported revenue of $1.40 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, reflecting a 5.7% year-over-year growth, with an organic growth rate of 6.3%.
  • The U.S. Federal Services segment was a primary growth driver with a 15.3% increase in revenues, suggesting strong performance in areas like clinical assessments and customer service programs.

Advanced Energy Industries: The 5 Major Challenges That Can Hinder Growth In 2025! Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, demonstrating a strong finish to the year after a rocky start.
  • The company achieved notable highlights, with Q4 revenue reaching $450 million, an 11% increase sequentially and 3% year-over-year, driven by strong performance in semiconductor and data center computing markets.
  • Advanced Energy’s semiconductor revenue, at $227 million, marked a 15% sequential increase and 19% year-over-year growth.

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Apr 03
0

Daily Brief India: Solar Industries India and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Plenty of Change With More Likely

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Plenty of Change With More Likely

By Brian Freitas

  • We currently forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 10 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 9 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
  • From the new listings, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
  • There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.

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Apr 03
0

Daily Brief China: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), WH Group, Atour Lifestyle Holdings, Ho Bee Land Ltd, Yuexiu Property and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL A/H Listing – Thoughts on A/H Premium
  • HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (March 2025)
  • [Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) Review]: Higher-Quality Growth Extending into 2025
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (02-Apr-2025): Warburg Pincus buys Japan living sector.
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

CATL A/H Listing – Thoughts on A/H Premium

By Sumeet Singh

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise at least US$5bn in its H-share listing.
  • CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about its recent updates and provide our thoughts on valuations.

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (March 2025)

By David Mudd

[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) Review]: Higher-Quality Growth Extending into 2025

By Eric Wen

  • Atour (ATAT) reported C4Q24 revenue 0.7%/5.8% higher than our estimate/consensus, which translate to 0.5%/4.7% higher in non-GAAP net income, thanks to hotel supply chain consolidation and pillow retail sales.
  • Management’s guidance for a steeper-than-consensus decline in 2025’s RevPAR are conservative in our view. We see a “low-before-high” RevPAR pattern in 2025, supported by tightened hotel supply and government stimuli.
  • We keep the TP at US$37/ADS and maintain as travel sector TOP BUY

Asia Real Estate Tracker (02-Apr-2025): Warburg Pincus buys Japan living sector.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Warburg Pincus invests in Japan living sector by acquiring a 16,000-room portfolio.
  • Proprium Capital beats out Ho Bee Land with a $228M bid for an Australian homebuilder.
  • Hillhouse’s Rava secures majority stake in Dash Living with $150M investment; Ex-Macquarie exec Robson to advise on ESR privatization.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In the US, the JOLTS job openings decreased to 7.57 mn (7.66 mn e / 7.76 mn p) in February.
  • The job openings rate fell slightly to 4.5% (4.6% e / 4.7% revised p), while the layoffs rate was stable at 1.1% (1.1% revised p).
  • Separately, the March ISM manufacturing index declined to 49.0 (49.5 e / 50.3 p). This was driven by a drop in the new orders and employment components, while the prices paid component increased. 

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Apr 03
0

Daily Brief Japan: Kokusai Electric , MS&AD Insurance, Sumitomo Mitsui Construction, Tokyo Tsushin Inc, COPRO-HOLDINGS Co Ltd, Morito Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable Unless Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering/Split
  • Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious Blah Blah” (Apr25), 🚨 AGAIN Read TSE Update Doc 3 🚨
  • Sumi Mitsui Construction (1821) | Playing Both Sides
  • Tokyo Communications Group (7359 JP) – Working to Strengthen the Financial Base
  • Copro-Holdings (7059 JP) – Further Business Growth in FY2026/3…
  • Morito (9837 JP) – Operating Profit for FY25/11 Is Recording a New High…

Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable Unless Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering/Split

By Travis Lundy

  • The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
  • Kokusai did NOT get added, waiting for a split, an offering, or time to pass. Only one sector change was made. So we see One ADD and One DELETE.
  • The lack of effort to address sector imbalances within the rules suggests the rules are not as hard as people thought. Intra-review changes could be more interesting in years ahead.

Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious Blah Blah” (Apr25), 🚨 AGAIN Read TSE Update Doc 3 🚨

By Travis Lundy

  • TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
  • 611 new CGRs filed since 1-Mar-25. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff file tool. Input a name, see the changes in the reports.
  • The JPX was curiously quiet itself as far as I can tell. No new governance reports, documents, etc, though there is a small consultation this month on the JPXNikkei400.

Sumi Mitsui Construction (1821) | Playing Both Sides

By Mark Chadwick

  • Murakami-Led funds have quietly amassed a 26.97% stake in Sumi Mitsui Construction while also acquiring a 5.01% stake in its subsidiary, Sumiken.
  • With the Tokyo Stock Exchange clamping down on parent-child listings, Sumiken’s future as a public company looks increasingly uncertain, raising buyout speculation.
  • City Index’s small stake in Sumiken may serve as a defensive move to block rival bids, reinforcing its influence over SMC’s long-term strategy.

Tokyo Communications Group (7359 JP) – Working to Strengthen the Financial Base

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Tokyo Communications Group’s (hereinafter “the Company”) core businesses currently include its Media business, where it plans and develops free game apps for smartphones and uses a portion of the app’s screen space to generate advertising revenue, and its Platform business, where it operates a consultation service based on a pay- as-you-go model
  • The Platform business is generally stable, while the Media business is inherently highly profitable thanks to its low cost, but prone to fluctuations depending on the number of hit titles.
  • Management Decision: After reaching highs in FY2021/12, the Company lowered its earnings forecasts and suffered operating losses for three consecutive years from FY2022/12 to FY2024/12.

Copro-Holdings (7059 JP) – Further Business Growth in FY2026/3…

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Q3 FY2025/3 Earnings result summary: COPRO-HOLDINGS (hereafter the Company) key consolidated figures increased sharply, including net sales of JPY 22,025 mn (+25.9% YoY), operating profit of JPY 2,148 mn (+52.8% YoY), Non-GAAP operating profit of JPY 2,481 mn (+54.0% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 2,162 mn (+46.0% YoY), and profit attributable to owners of parent (hereafter, net profit) of JPY 1,374 mn (+46.7% YoY).
  • Amid continued strong demand for temporary staffing, the Group’s overall technician headcount rose substantially by 26.3% YoY to 4,684, as the Company stepped up its in-house low-cost recruitment program efforts and operations, which in turn boosted sales and profits significantly.

  • FY2025/3 Earnings Forecast: The Company’s full-year consolidated earnings forecasts for FY2025/3 are as follows: net sales of JPY30,000 mn(+24.5% YoY), operating profit of JPY 2,700 mn (+26.1% YoY), Non-GAAP operating profit of JPY 3,162 mn(+29.7%YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 2,714 mn (+22.7% YoY), and net profit of JPY 1,755 mn (+19.9% YoY).

Morito (9837 JP) – Operating Profit for FY25/11 Is Recording a New High…

By Sessa Investment Research

  • For FY2024/11, MORITO (hereafter, the Company) reported net sales of JPY 48,537 mn (+0.0% YoY), operating profit of JPY 2,868 mn (+16.4% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 3,003 mn (+8.4% YoY), and profit attributable to owners of parent (hereafter, net profit) of JPY 2,572 mn (+16.0% YoY).
  • Net sales rose slightly, but gross profit margin grew to 29.1%, marking record highs for net sales, operating profit, and ordinary profit.
  • For FY2025/11, Morito projects net sales of JPY 53,000 mn (+9.2% YoY), operating profit of JPY 3,100 mn (+8.1% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 3,200 mn (+6.5% YoY), and net profit of JPY 2,700 mn (+5.0% YoY).

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