Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Short selling in Korea resumes in a couple of hours. Expect heightened volatility for a few days before things settle down.
Foreign investors have increased their holdings over the last five weeks and there could be further buying in select stocks on stock price drops.
The KOSPI 200 INDEX has outperformed the KOSDAQ 150 Index, and the forecast index deletes have underperformed the indices indicating that there will be positioning for the short-sell resumption.

Kospi Index Options Weekly (Mar 24 – 28): Volatility Dynamics and Tariff Uncertainty Support Hedging

A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, including option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.
Implied vol held firm despite price swings, with the spread between 1M implied and historic vol continuing to widen.
We suggest a tactical hedge given implied vol dynamics and uncertain political environment.

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Mar 31

Daily Brief Indonesia: Global Digital Niaga Tbk PT, Sariguna Primatirta Tbk PT and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ) – Firmer Underfoot for the Dark Horse
Sariguna Primatirta (CLEO IJ) – Pure Water on the Move

Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ) – Firmer Underfoot for the Dark Horse

By Angus Mackintosh

Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ) booked a strong finish to 2024, driven by its 3P retail and institutional business, although 1P retail and physical stores also performed well.
The company continues to see improving take rates in FY2024, whilst its average order value increased through a more favourable product mix, with gross margins and cash flows improving significantly.
Global Digital Niaga continued to expand its physical stores for monobrand and multibrand stores, adding Huawei as a brand. Valuations look reasonable given growth prospects and progress towards profitability.

Sariguna Primatirta (CLEO IJ) – Pure Water on the Move

By Angus Mackintosh

Sariguna Primatirta (CLEO IJ) booked yet another quarter of impressive sequential growth in 4Q2024, hitting another record quarterly revenue, with margins improving at the same time, boosting profits.
The company opened three factories in 2024 and plans three more in FY2025, with the total to 35 across Indonesia and further extending its scale and reach, and driving growth.
The main driver for growth will come through general trade, which makes up 70% of distribution, with a factory opening push outside Java. Valuations are attractive versus growth.

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Mar 31

Daily Brief United States: CoreWeave, Sailpoint Technologies Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

CoreWeave (CRWV US): Global & US Index Exclusion Over Low IPO Float & Public Voting Rights
SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL.US): Overall Growth Is Slowing Down, But FCF Will Turn Positive in FY26

CoreWeave (CRWV US): Global & US Index Exclusion Over Low IPO Float & Public Voting Rights

By Dimitris Ioannidis

CoreWeave (CRWV US) is forecasted to be added to snp TMI at the June 2025 review after failing the fast-entry fcap threshold of $2bn.
CoreWeave (CRWV US) is ineligible in 2025 for inclusion to Global-F and rasel due to public voting rights below 5%.
Lock-Up expiry causes free float thus public voting rights to increase above 5%. Addition to Global-F SmallCap and R1000 is expected in March and June 2026, respectively.

SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL.US): Overall Growth Is Slowing Down, But FCF Will Turn Positive in FY26

By Andrei Zakharov

SailPoint, a pioneer of enterprise identity governance market with industry leadership position, returned to the public markets in 2025.
American technology company has raised ~$1.4B in US IPO and paid down all outstanding debt in 1Q FY26, according to Brian Carolan, CFO of SailPoint, Inc.
The company reported mixed 4Q FY25 results with ~78% y/y increase in customers with ARR˃$1M and a bullish tone on AI agent identity management.

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Mar 31

Daily Brief India: Edelweiss Financial Services, NIFTY Index, Nuvama Wealth Management, Nesco Ltd, Rajshree Polypack, HealthCare Global Enterprises, RPSG Ventures Limited, Tata Steel Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

Edelweiss: Growing Well and Unlocking Value
Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 24 – 28): Sticky Implied Vol and a Tactical Hedge Ahead of Tariffs
Nuvama: Yet Another Strong Quarter
Nesco: Strong Q3FY25
RPPL: Weak Q3FY25, However Medium-Term Outlook Is Strong
HCG: Strong Q3FY25 and Promoter Change Update
RPSG Ventures: FMCG Business Is Scaling Up Well | BPO Business Is Growing Now
Tata Steel (TATA IN): Scaling Up Domestic Operations, Easing EU Drag

Edelweiss: Growing Well and Unlocking Value

Edelweiss reported a decent Q3FY25 with ex-Insurance PAT of INR 185cr, a growth of 16% YoY excluding NBFC PAT. Growth was led by Asset Management and Insurance businesses.
Within the Credit business, the Home Finance business which operates under the brand Nido is scaling up well. It disbursed INR 400cr+ worth of retail loans during Q3FY25.
Edelweiss is focusing on unlocking value and has already filed DRHP for its Alternative Asset Management business. Once approved, it will proceed for an IPO with OFS of INR 1500cr.

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 24 – 28): Sticky Implied Vol and a Tactical Hedge Ahead of Tariffs

Weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, covering option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest.
Implied vol remained stable, and we discuss why it may be sticky at current levels.
With global weakness and the upcoming April 2 reciprocal tariffs announcement, we reiterate a tactical hedge.

Nuvama: Yet Another Strong Quarter

Nuvama continues to post strong earnings. Its Q3FY25 revenues grew 30% YoY to INR 723cr. Q3FY25 PAT grew 43% YoY to INR 252cr.
Q3FY25 performance was surprisingly led by the Asset Services segment where revenue grew 77% YoY with addition of new clients and positive asset flow, leading to market share gain.
Together the Wealth and Asset Management segments performed steady with revenue growth of 18% YoY. Net flows in 9MFY25 in ARR and MPIS assets exceeded that for whole of FY24.

Nesco: Strong Q3FY25

Nesco reported a strong Q3FY25 with 16% YoY revenue growth and 17% YoY PAT growth. The exhibitions (BEC) segment grew 13% YoY and the IT Parks segment grew 16% YoY.
Nesco Foods segment reported 29% YoY growth in revenues led by improved BEC footfalls and scaling up of the Food Court and Restaurants business.
Recently, Nesco also received IOD from the municipal corporation of Mumbai, thus paving way for receiving future approvals for Tower 2. Tower 2 construction is expected to commence in Q3FY26.

RPPL: Weak Q3FY25, However Medium-Term Outlook Is Strong

Earlier this month, RPPL announced a new factory to expand its thermoforming and extrusion capacity by 1250 MTPA and 1600 MTPA, respectively. This will come on-stream within a month.
RPPL reported a weak Q3FY25 due to adverse fluctuation in raw material prices as well as seasonal impact. Q3 tends to be a weak quarter seasonally.
RPPL’s capacity expansion has been leading to upfront expenses. The new Olive Ecopak JV also reported losses, share of which was INR -2.6cr in Q3FY25.

HCG: Strong Q3FY25 and Promoter Change Update

HealthCare Global Enterprises (“HCG”) reported a strong Q3FY25 despite Q3 being a seasonally weak quarter. Revenue growth was strong across both the established centers and the emerging centers.
Revenue from established centers grew 20% YoY while that from emerging centers grew 25% YoY in Q3FY25. Within emerging centers, Kolkata led the growth with 40% YoY rise in revenues.
HCG saw promoter change in Feb 2025. KKR announced acquisition of 54% stake from CVC who owns around 60%+. Dr. BS Ajaikumar, the founder promoter, will continue to own 10%+.

RPSG Ventures: FMCG Business Is Scaling Up Well | BPO Business Is Growing Now

With INR 145cr revenue in the FMCG business in Q3FY25, RPSGV has sustained its INR 550cr+ annualized revenue run-rate from the last quarter, which implies it is scaling up well.
The BPO business (“Firstsource”) has normalized after seeing tough times a few quarters ago. Q3FY25 revenue grew 30%+ YoY and 10%+ QoQ. EBIT margin has been steady at 11% QoQ.
Within the Sports business, the IPL franchise, Lucknow Super Giants, announced a new captain, Rishabh Pant, under whose leadership there is likely to be more aggression towards result orientation.

Tata Steel (TATA IN): Scaling Up Domestic Operations, Easing EU Drag

By Rahul Jain

Tata Steel’s India business is poised for multi-year volume expansion, backed by ample land availability across three key locations.
Losses from UK and Netherland operations set to ease. UK operations are under transitioning phase from BF to EAF. Discussions are on with the Netherlands govt.
Valuations: Tata Steel trades at 6.5x EV/EBITDA based on estimated FY26 EBITDA. Stock has outperformed local indices and could likely continue.

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Mar 31

Daily Brief China: Jinke Smart Services, Vesync, ENN Energy, Hang Seng Index, China International Capital Corporation, Xiaomi Corp, Mixue Group, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK): Boyu to Launch a Privatisation Offer?
Vesync (2148 HK): Scheme Vote on 23 April
Merger Arb Mondays (31 Mar) – ENN Energy, ESR, Vesync, Seven & I, Topcon, Sinarmas Land, Gold Road
Vesync (2148 HK): 23rd April Scheme Vote. Done Deal
HSI Index Options Weekly (Mar 24-28): Volatility Softens as HSI Takes a Breather
CICC (3908 HK): Underestimated by the Market
ECM Weekly (31st Mar 2025) – Xiaomi, NIO, FCT, Gigabyte, DN Sol, Nanshan Al, Zenergy, LXJ, Veeda
Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (March 24 – 28): Earnings Wrap as Breadth Deteriorates
Mixue Vs Guming: Valuation Premium. Comparing Earnings Growth in 2024
HSCEI Index Options Weekly (Mar 24-28): Call Volumes Rise as Market Digests Key Events

Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK): Boyu to Launch a Privatisation Offer?

Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK) is in a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers which constitutes inside information.”
It is likely that Boyu, the largest shareholder, is seeking to privatise Jinke. The privatisation of PRC-incorporated entities is usually done through a merger by absorption.
I use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a price range of HK$10.00-16.86, with an average of HK$12.47, a 45% premium to the last close.

Vesync (2148 HK): Scheme Vote on 23 April

Vesync (2148 HK)’s IFA opines that the Yang family’s HK$5.60 cash offer is fair and reasonable. The IFA does not recommend the scrip option. The vote is on 23 April.
Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection). The offer price is final.
The vote is low-risk due to a lack of opposition. At the last close and for the 15 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/28.7%.

Merger Arb Mondays (31 Mar) – ENN Energy, ESR, Vesync, Seven & I, Topcon, Sinarmas Land, Gold Road

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: ENN Energy (2688 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), OneConnect Financial Technology (OCFT US), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), Soundwill Holdings (878 HK).
Lowest spreads: Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ), Tonami Holdings (9070 JP).

Vesync (2148 HK): 23rd April Scheme Vote. Done Deal

By David Blennerhassett

On the 27th December, Vesync (2148 HK), a manufacturer of small home appliances, announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Yang family controlling ~69.04% of Vesync.
The Cancellation Price of $5.60/share – declared final – was a 33.3% premium to undisturbed, and above the 2020 IPO price of HK$5.52/share.
The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 23rd April, and expected payment on or before the 15th May. The IFA (Somerley) says “fair & reasonable”.

HSI Index Options Weekly (Mar 24-28): Volatility Softens as HSI Takes a Breather

A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, covering option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics
Implied vol softened this week—we examine the trend and its potential implications.
HSI’s performance vs. SP500 is highlighted against a backdrop of tariffs and global shifts.

CICC (3908 HK): Underestimated by the Market

By Osbert Tang, CFA

China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)‘s 2H24 net profit surged 33.6% in 2H24, reversing the downtrend in 1H24. It has benefited from lower staff and other operating costs.
Better 1Q25 market turnover and activities, more IPOs and placements and improved cost dynamics imply that the consensus forecasts are too conservative.
Its 0.55x P/B cannot adequately reflect better profitability. Despite the denial, CICC’s potential merger with China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK) cannot be completely ruled out.

ECM Weekly (31st Mar 2025) – Xiaomi, NIO, FCT, Gigabyte, DN Sol, Nanshan Al, Zenergy, LXJ, Veeda

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, DN Solutions (298440 KS)‘s range looks a little pricey, while Eco-Shop Marketing (ECO MY) could trade ahead of its listed peers, in our view.
On the placements front, Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) matched BYD (1211 HK) in size, but couldn’t do so in returns.

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (March 24 – 28): Earnings Wrap as Breadth Deteriorates

Weekly recap of key option metrics across single stocks, including most active names and strikes, largest volume increases, biggest movers, and key earnings reports.
Breadth continues to deteriorate against an increasingly hostile global backdrop.
Both price and implied volatility declined on average, with the typical stock still well below its 52-week high.

Mixue Vs Guming: Valuation Premium. Comparing Earnings Growth in 2024

By Devi Subhakesan

The comparison between Mixue Group (2097 HK) and Guming (1364 HK)’s 2024 annual results highlight how their financial and operational performance diverged sharply.
Mixue’s vertically integrated operations provide it a strong competitive edge and superior margins while Guming, operating in the mid-priced segment faced fierce competition
Mixue’s high-quality earnings growth underscores a robust business model that attracts premium valuation multiples.

HSCEI Index Options Weekly (Mar 24-28): Call Volumes Rise as Market Digests Key Events

A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, covering option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.
HSCEI price and implied vols both softer on the week after digesting large share sale and key earnings reports.
We highlight the performance of HSCEI vs SP500 and note that this is a relationship to monitor in the rapidly changing political climate.

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Mar 31

Daily Brief Japan: Topcon Corp, BayCurrent Consulting , Seven & I Holdings, Nikkei 225, J Front Retailing and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

[Japan Activism] – KKR and JIC Buy Out Topcon (7732 JP) At ¥3,300/Share
Nikkei 225 Mar25 Rebal – A Big Buy With Buying Shadow, A Bigger Sell, And $2bn of Funding Flows
Weekly Deals Digest (30 Mar) – Seven & I, Topcon, ENN Energy, Jinke Smart, Sinarmas Land, Gold Road
Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Mar 24 – 28): Weak Finish Despite USD/JPY Strength
J Front Diversifies to Generate More Income

[Japan Activism] – KKR and JIC Buy Out Topcon (7732 JP) At ¥3,300/Share

The difference between an LBO (Leveraged Buy Out) and an MBO (Management Buy Out) is that an MBO is usually just an LBO where the buyers don’t replace the CEO.
After 4+mos of speculation/noise since a Bloomberg article said Topcon was weighing takeover bids, we have a deal. KKR and JIC will buy out Topcon in an “MBO” at ¥3,300/share.
Unusually, the lower limit is 50.1%. This is an OK exit for the “Bad Cops” but not a great one. It should be higher. Start delayed for 4 months.

Nikkei 225 Mar25 Rebal – A Big Buy With Buying Shadow, A Bigger Sell, And $2bn of Funding Flows

The Nikkei 225 March 2025 rebalance is today. The ADD is big, with more to buy later. The SELL is a really big sell in terms of float.
The Sell, Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP), means Max Real World Float doubles. It’s like a huge offering, with warning.
There’s a big cap trade on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) where timing is not on its side, leaving US$2bn to buy in funding. 25 names at 0.4x ADV to buy.

Weekly Deals Digest (30 Mar) – Seven & I, Topcon, ENN Energy, Jinke Smart, Sinarmas Land, Gold Road

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: DN Solutions (298440 KS) seeks to raise US$1.1 billion in a KRX IPO.
Event-Driven developments: Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Topcon Corp (7732 JP), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Sinarmas Land (SML SP), Gold Road Resources (GOR AU).

Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Mar 24 – 28): Weak Finish Despite USD/JPY Strength

A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, covering option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.
USD/JPY and Nikkei moved in opposite directions, with the index underperforming its historical relationship to FX.
Options volume increased throughout the week, peaking on Friday’s move lower.

J Front Diversifies to Generate More Income

By Michael Causton

J Front has been pushing ahead with new ways to get younger (and richer) customers into its stores.
It recently opened a high end art floor at Matsuzakaya Nagoya, continues to expand its fashion subscription business, and will shortly open the first joint store with Komehyo.
It is also investing heavily in real estate in key cities as a third major platform to its business.

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Mar 31

Most Read: NetEase , Shinko Electric Industries, Topcon Corp, BayCurrent Consulting , Hang Seng TECH Index, Seven & I Holdings, KOSDAQ 150 Index, Jinke Smart Services and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Hang Seng Indexes: FAF Methodology Change for Secondary Listings; Over US$1bn to Buy in NetEase
Shinko Electric (6967) – Chicken and Logistics
[Japan Activism] – KKR and JIC Buy Out Topcon (7732 JP) At ¥3,300/Share
Nikkei 225 Mar25 Rebal – A Big Buy With Buying Shadow, A Bigger Sell, And $2bn of Funding Flows
Topcon (7732 JP): KKR/JICC-Sponsored Preconditional MBO, with Caveats
ETF Flows in Q1: Inflows for Taiwan, Outflows for China
Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, ENN Energy, Sun Corp, Great Eastern Holdings
Weekly Deals Digest (30 Mar) – Seven & I, Topcon, ENN Energy, Jinke Smart, Sinarmas Land, Gold Road
Korea Short Selling: Off to the Races
Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK): Boyu to Launch a Privatisation Offer?

Hang Seng Indexes: FAF Methodology Change for Secondary Listings; Over US$1bn to Buy in NetEase

Hang Seng Indexes has announced a change in the FreeFloat-Adjusted Factor (FAF) methodology for Secondary Listings that will be implemented from the next rebalance in June.
NetEase (9999 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK), NIO (9866 HK), New Oriental Education & Techn (9901 HK) and Weibo (9898 HK) benefit; GDS Holdings (9698 HK) loses out.
The FAF changes along with capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of HK$34.2bn (US$4.4bn) at the June rebalance with the largest turnover for the Hang Seng TECH Index.

Shinko Electric (6967) – Chicken and Logistics

The Tender Offer closed end of last week. The bidder JICC-04 got 59.281mm shares. Most of what was left over – perhaps even more than 100%, was passive-owned.
More than 100%? How does that work? It works because of how the logistics goes.
And right now, the reason why the stock is trading well through terms is a matter of Chicken and Logistics.

[Japan Activism] – KKR and JIC Buy Out Topcon (7732 JP) At ¥3,300/Share

The difference between an LBO (Leveraged Buy Out) and an MBO (Management Buy Out) is that an MBO is usually just an LBO where the buyers don’t replace the CEO.
After 4+mos of speculation/noise since a Bloomberg article said Topcon was weighing takeover bids, we have a deal. KKR and JIC will buy out Topcon in an “MBO” at ¥3,300/share.
Unusually, the lower limit is 50.1%. This is an OK exit for the “Bad Cops” but not a great one. It should be higher. Start delayed for 4 months.

Nikkei 225 Mar25 Rebal – A Big Buy With Buying Shadow, A Bigger Sell, And $2bn of Funding Flows

The Nikkei 225 March 2025 rebalance is today. The ADD is big, with more to buy later. The SELL is a really big sell in terms of float.
The Sell, Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP), means Max Real World Float doubles. It’s like a huge offering, with warning.
There’s a big cap trade on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) where timing is not on its side, leaving US$2bn to buy in funding. 25 names at 0.4x ADV to buy.

Topcon (7732 JP): KKR/JICC-Sponsored Preconditional MBO, with Caveats

Topcon Corp (7732 JP) recommended a KKR/JICC-sponsored preconditional MBO at JPY3,300, representing an 87.9% premium to the undisturbed price and a 5.4% premium to the last close.
The offer is preconditional on regulatory approvals and is scheduled to start at the end of July. The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high.
The offer comes with caveats: the Board recommendation is not unanimous, the lower limit is set below the two-thirds threshold, and KKR offered a higher price during the discussions.

ETF Flows in Q1: Inflows for Taiwan, Outflows for China

The largest ETF inflows in the region have been in Taiwan as investors rush into indices that have higher dividend yields.
China had large inflows last year as markets floundered. With markets trading in a range over the last 6 months, those flows have reversed in Q1 this year.
Australia has seen net inflows this year, while there have been net outflows from Hong Kong, India and Japan focused ETFs.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, ENN Energy, Sun Corp, Great Eastern Holdings

By David Blennerhassett

If you don’t think Seven & I (3382 JP)‘s Standalone Plan has legs to go north of here, or ACT gets its act together, then you should sell into strength.
ENN Energy (2688 HK)‘s cash and scrip (into a unlisted H-share-equivalent entity) Offer was not what the doctor ordered.
Sun Corp (6736 JP) is cheap to its holding in Cellebrite DI (CLBT US). How cheap depends on the form and structure of its eventual exit.

Weekly Deals Digest (30 Mar) – Seven & I, Topcon, ENN Energy, Jinke Smart, Sinarmas Land, Gold Road

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: DN Solutions (298440 KS) seeks to raise US$1.1 billion in a KRX IPO.
Event-Driven developments: Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Topcon Corp (7732 JP), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Sinarmas Land (SML SP), Gold Road Resources (GOR AU).

Korea Short Selling: Off to the Races

Short selling in Korea resumes in a couple of hours. Expect heightened volatility for a few days before things settle down.
Foreign investors have increased their holdings over the last five weeks and there could be further buying in select stocks on stock price drops.
The KOSPI 200 INDEX has outperformed the KOSDAQ 150 Index, and the forecast index deletes have underperformed the indices indicating that there will be positioning for the short-sell resumption.

Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK): Boyu to Launch a Privatisation Offer?