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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Feb 26
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: JX Advanced Metals, Anglo American Platinum , Tocvan Ventures, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Panoro Energy ASA, Sintana Energy , Corcel and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
  • JSE Mar25 Rebalance: AMS to Enter Top 40, EXX to Be Deleted
  • TOC: First Drilling at Expansion Area Hits High-Grade
  • JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/08] WTI Surrendered Gains on Weak Economic Signals
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/08] Henry Hub Extends Gains for Third Week Amid Sustained Cold Snap
  • Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Increasing shareholder distributions to >15% of the current market cap at US$70/bbl
  • Sintana Energy Inc. (TSX-V: SEI): New Material Discovery at Mopane
  • Corcel Plc (AIM: CRCL): Successful Workover in Brazil

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

JSE Mar25 Rebalance: AMS to Enter Top 40, EXX to Be Deleted

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • Last night, the price snapshot was taken for the JSE March 2025 rebalance. AMS is expected to enter the Top 40 index, with EXX falling out.
  • No changes are expected for the FINDI, FINI, INDI or RESI indices.
  • The JSE rebalance is scheduled to take place in the closing auction on Thursday the 20th of March (due to the public holiday on Friday).

TOC: First Drilling at Expansion Area Hits High-Grade

By Atrium Research

  • Tocvan reported the first RC drill result from the 100% controlled Expansion Area just to the north of the Main Zone.
  • A total of 776.2m of drilling was reported across 4 drill holes.
  • The highlight intercept was a scout hole reporting 3.1 g/t Au over 19.8m, including 19.4 g/t Au over 3.1m.

JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent,  ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
  • JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
  • We looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison in our previous note. In this note, we talk about valuations.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/08] WTI Surrendered Gains on Weak Economic Signals

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures fell by 0.5% for the week ending 21/Feb, marking its fifth consecutive weekly drop. Prices fell due to bearish economic data and rising crude inventories.
  • WTI options Put/Call volume ratio surged to 1.62 on 21/Feb (Fri) from 0.94 on 14/Feb, as call volume rose by 15.9% WoW while put volume jumped by 100%.  
  • WTI OI PCR fell to 0.95 on 21/Feb compared to 0.96 on 14/Feb. Call OI increased by 6.5% WoW, while put OI rose by 6.1%.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/08] Henry Hub Extends Gains for Third Week Amid Sustained Cold Snap

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 21/Feb, U.S. natural gas prices gained 13.7% on the back of colder weather forecasts, rising LNG exports, and falling inventories.
  • Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio rose to 0.72 on 21/Feb from 0.66 on 14/Feb as call volumes increased by 81.4% WoW, while put volumes surged by 98%. 
  • Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 1.04 on 21/Feb from 0.98 on 14/Feb. Call OI rose by 7.1% WoW, while put OI increased by 13.3%.

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Increasing shareholder distributions to >15% of the current market cap at US$70/bbl

By Auctus Advisors

  • FY24 production, YE24 cash and debt had been reported previously.
  • FY25 production is expected to be 11-13 mbbl/d with only US$35 mm capex.
  • We have trimmed our production forecast from 13.1 mbbl/d to 12.5 mbbl/d and our capex estimates from US$40 mm to US$35 mm.

Sintana Energy Inc. (TSX-V: SEI): New Material Discovery at Mopane

By Auctus Advisors

  • The Mopane-3X exploration well has encountered columns of light oil and gas-condensates across the AVO-10 interval, as well as light oil columns at AVO-13 and at a deeper sand.
  • The sandstone reservoirs are of excellent quality, with high permeability and porosity, and higher-than-estimated pressure.
  • The oil has low viscosity, with minimal CO2 and H2S content.

Corcel Plc (AIM: CRCL): Successful Workover in Brazil

By Auctus Advisors

  • The EI-1 well at the Irai gas field in Brazil has been tested at a rate of 120 boe/d (~0.7 mmcf/d). The well had been shut-in since 2022.
  • This test rate exceeds our forecast of ~0.5 mmcf/d for the first quarter of production, achieved within three months from signing the agreement with Irai’s owner. 
  • Once onstream, production from the EI-1 well will boost production from the existing EI-3 well, which we estimate at ~0.6-0.7 mmcf/d. 

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Feb 26
0

Daily Brief Financials: HDFC Bank, Softbank Group, Greentown China, Profile Systems & Software and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • HDFC Bank (HDFCB): Robust Deposit Growth Despite Tough Environment
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (25-Feb-2025): Global capital flows boost Australian logistics market.
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Greentown China, UPL Ltd
  • Company Update: Profile Software S.A- February 14, 2025

HDFC Bank (HDFCB): Robust Deposit Growth Despite Tough Environment

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Deposit growth has been decent and exceeded loan growth, allowing HDFCB to bring down its credit-deposit ratio. Average deposits grew 15%+ YoY, while loans grew at 7%+ YoY in Q3FY25.
  • Despite tough macro environment, HDFCB was able to gain market share in deposits. Despite headwinds from tight liquidity leading to competitive pricing, HDFCB was able to maintain its NIM.
  • HDFCB is benefitting from its productivity and technology-led enhancements with costs growing at just 7% YoY. Despite weak macro-economic environment, HDFCB’s asset quality has remained pristine, barring seasonality in Agri-loans.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (25-Feb-2025): Global capital flows boost Australian logistics market.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Global capital flowing into Australian logistics market as it reaches turning point, attracting investments.
  • Japan REIT makes deals in Tokyo, buying Tokyo Tower for $120M and selling office block for $62M.
  • CapitaLand India Trust acquires Bengaluru offices for $170M after project funding, expanding its portfolio.

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Greentown China, UPL Ltd

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Company Update: Profile Software S.A- February 14, 2025

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • PROFILE SOFTWARE S.A. (the group or the company) offers innovative, award-winning and flexible software solutions developed with high quality standards for the banking and investment management industry.
  • Continuous R&D invest- ments and close contact with clients and associates around the world allows the company to keep innovating and meet the growing market needs.
  • The company’s vision and goal is to provide innovative software solutions that enable finan- cial institutions and corporations across the world to deliver their full potential to their clients. 

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Feb 26
0

Daily Brief Health Care: S&P 500 INDEX, Davita Healthcare Partners, Bio-Rad Laboratories A, Butong Group, Celltrion Inc, Moderna and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish
  • DaVita Inc.: Is Their Expectation Regarding Revenue Per Treatment Growth Reasonable?
  • Bio-Rad Laboratories: Expanding In Digital PCR To Strengthen Presence & Advance Molecular Diagnostics!
  • Pre-IPO Butong Group – The Current High Growth May Not Be Sustainable
  • Celltrion (068270 KS): Record High Sales in 4Q; Sequentially Weaker Profit; Solid Outlook for 2025
  • Moderna Inc.: Is Its mRNA Platform Fueling A Multi-Billion-Dollar Pipeline Beyond COVID?

Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish

By Joe Jasper

  • Our long-term outlook remains bullish as long as the S&P 500 remains above 5770-5850 and 5600-5670 (worst case), and we are buyers at these levels.
  • With that said, we see potential for near-term downside based on several developments discussed below.  It likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation
  • If SPX remains below 6100 and 6150 resistances, do not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670

DaVita Inc.: Is Their Expectation Regarding Revenue Per Treatment Growth Reasonable?

By Baptista Research

  • DaVita ended 2024 strongly, with adjusted operating income of $1.98 billion and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growing by 26% year-over-year, reaching $9.68.
  • However, challenges such as the Change Healthcare outage and supply chain disruptions due to Hurricane Helene impacted performance.
  • These issues contributed to a $6 million negative impact on operating income in the fourth quarter.

Bio-Rad Laboratories: Expanding In Digital PCR To Strengthen Presence & Advance Molecular Diagnostics!

By Baptista Research

  • Bio-Rad Laboratories recently announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and the full fiscal year 2024, revealing both achievements and challenges.
  • The company reported net sales of approximately $668 million in the fourth quarter, representing a decline of 2% on a reported basis compared to the same period last year.
  • This decrease was largely attributed to a shorter turnaround in the Life Science segment and fluctuations in the biopharma market, notably in China, which still reflected a market downturn.

Pre-IPO Butong Group – The Current High Growth May Not Be Sustainable

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • BUTONG’s growth momentum remained high, but customers are more focused on cost-effectiveness rather than premium products. We are unsure whether BUTONG’s  current high growth is sustainable in this low-growth industry. 
  • The more revenue proportion from baby care products, the lower overall gross margin would be.BUTONG’s strategy of emphasizing sales over R&D isn’t conducive to establishing core competitiveness in fierce competition.
  • After Series B financing, the post-investment valuation reached about RMB2 billion. However, the market value of peers is not high. BUTONG’s post-IPO valuation performance may be lower than expected.

Celltrion (068270 KS): Record High Sales in 4Q; Sequentially Weaker Profit; Solid Outlook for 2025

By Tina Banerjee

  • Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) achieved 178% YoY and 21% QoQ revenue growth to KRW1,064B in 4Q24, driven by rapid growth of new products such as Remsima SC, Yuflyma, and Steqeyma.
  • Celltrion guided for 2025 revenue of KRW5.0T, up 43% YoY. Celltrion is targeting COGS ratio in 20%s by 4Q25. Operating profit margin is expected to recover to 30%s in 2025.  
  • New launches, COGS improvement, and cost efficiency will drive 2025 growth. This year, Celltrion received European approval for four biosimilars and three biosimilars are under regulatory review in the U.S.

Moderna Inc.: Is Its mRNA Platform Fueling A Multi-Billion-Dollar Pipeline Beyond COVID?

By Baptista Research

  • Moderna reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2024, revealing both opportunities and challenges.
  • The company recorded total revenue of $3.2 billion for the year, a 53% decrease from 2023, attributed largely to declining product sales.
  • The net loss for 2024 was $3.6 billion, a slight improvement from a $4.7 billion net loss in 2023.

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Feb 26
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Pentamaster International, Prosus NV, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Sandisk Corp, Dozn, Xiaomi Corp, Nasdaq-100 Stock Index, Twilio , NetEase Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas
  • Pentamaster (1665 HK) Breaks Ahead Of Vote. Yet Pricing IS Fair
  • Naspers & Prosus Sell off on JET Acquisition, Discounts Oversold Lifting Buyback Accretion
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Trump’s New China Chip Restrictions; Foxconn & Honda Alliance?; TSMC & Intel
  • [Alert] Sell Sandisk Spin-off
  • Dozn IPO Preview
  • Xiaomi: 3 Option Hedges for Extreme Price & Volatility Environment
  • Where Is the Nasdaq 100 Headed Next?
  • Twilio Inc.: How Is The Management Capitalizing On AI Integration & Product Cross-Selling Opportunities?
  • [NetEase (NTES US, BUY, TP US$122) TP Change]: C4Q24 Review: Getting Ready for Accelerated Growth

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

By Brian Freitas

  • Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. 
  • Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.
  • There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.

Pentamaster (1665 HK) Breaks Ahead Of Vote. Yet Pricing IS Fair

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 19th December 2024, Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, to take out its pseudo dual-listed twin, Pentamaster International (1665 HK).
  • The Offer Price was HK$1.00/share – including a HK$0.07/share dividend – a 45.3% premium to last close, but arguably more like a 61% premium to undisturbed. 
  • The Court Meeting is the 28th February. Shares are down 15%+ in recent days. On no news.  Not a great look. 

Naspers & Prosus Sell off on JET Acquisition, Discounts Oversold Lifting Buyback Accretion

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • Yesterday morning, Prosus announced the acquisition of Just Eat Takeaway for $4.3bn.
  • Naspers and Prosus sold off sharply on the news, ending the day down 7.7% and 7.8%, respectively.
  • Naspers’ discount widened by 2.8 percentage points to 44.2% and Prosus’ discount widened by 3.1 percentage points to 39.8%.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Trump’s New China Chip Restrictions; Foxconn & Honda Alliance?; TSMC & Intel

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Trump Adminstration Gearing Up to Further Restrict China’s Access to Chip Technology — Could Restrict Servicing of Existing Equipment
  • Foxconn and Honda: Could This Be a New Alliance in EV Manufacturing?
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will TSMC Work on Intel Foundry Services? There Are Three Paradoxes… 

[Alert] Sell Sandisk Spin-off

By Richard Howe

  • Today, investors received shares in the new SanDisk spin-off.

  • Shares are currently slightly up due to buying pressure ahead of the stock being added to the S&P 600 index effective tomorrow.

  • SanDisk is trading at 1.1x revenue which is a reasonable valuation (Xioxia, Sandisk’s JV partner, trades at 1.3x LTM revenue).

Dozn IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Dozn is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in March 2025. The company plans to offer 2.5 million shares in this IPO.
  • The IPO price range is from 10,250 won to 12,500 won per share and the offering amount ranges from 26.2 billion won to 31.2 billion won.
  • Founded in 2017, Dozn is emerging as a prominent business-to-business (B2B) digital solution service provider in Korea.

Xiaomi: 3 Option Hedges for Extreme Price & Volatility Environment

By John Ley

  • Xiaomi has had a remarkable rally, ranking at the 99th percentile for all previous 1-month price changes.
  • Implied vols have surged along with price with 1M, 2M and 3M implied vols all ranking above the 95th over the past 4 years.  
  • We recommend how to manage risk and positioning given the extreme price and implied vol dynamics.

Where Is the Nasdaq 100 Headed Next?

By Nico Rosti

  • The Nasdaq-100 INDEX started to pull back last week, this is the second week down in a row and the index is very oversold according to our tactical model.
  • The DAILY model signals extreme oversold conditions, a reversal is imminent. The WEEKLY model is also oversold but still leaves room for further downside…
  • A possible scenario is a DAILY bounce (1 or 2 days up) followed by more WEEKLY downside (another 1-2 weeks down). This insight wil analyze only the WEEKLY model.

Twilio Inc.: How Is The Management Capitalizing On AI Integration & Product Cross-Selling Opportunities?

By Baptista Research

  • Twilio Inc. presented a compelling performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, showcasing its evolution and strategic progress.
  • The company reported $1.195 billion in revenue, marking an 11% increase year-over-year, achieving consecutive quarters of double-digit growth.
  • This quarter was particularly notable as it was Twilio’s first to achieve GAAP operating profitability, ahead of its initial target, underscoring the firm’s focus on balanced growth and profitability.

[NetEase (NTES US, BUY, TP US$122) TP Change]: C4Q24 Review: Getting Ready for Accelerated Growth

By Ying Pan

  • NetEase reported C4Q24 rev., GAAP op. profit and GAAP net inc. in line/3.9%/27% vs. our est., and in line/9.3%/27% vs. cons. 
  • We see NetEase entering a new phase of product-driven revenue growth, driven by rebounding mobile and accelerating PC game growth;
  • We raise TP to US$122 and keep NTES as our TOP PICK in gaming sector.

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Feb 26
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Trip.com, Trent Ltd, Smithfield Foods, Sony Corp, China Dongxiang, Honda Motor Co Ltd (Adr), TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Unilever Nigeria, Build A Bear Workshop and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Trip.com (TCOM, 9961HK): 4Q24, Even Better Results, But Plunged as Expected
  • Trip.com Q424 Results | Higher Costs Finally Arrive, And With a Vengeance
  • Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Jun25: One Change to Expectations; US$500mn One-Way Collectively
  • Potential Buyout of Nathan’s Famous by Smithfield Foods Could Unlock 45% Upside Amid Strategic Synergies
  • How Is Sony Group Leveraging Synergy in Entertainment & Technology To Up The Ante!
  • China Dongxiang (3818 HK): More than Just BABA
  • Honda Motor Co.: How Is It Adapting To The Shifting Global Vehicle Mix & Regional Market Dynamics?
  • Pre-AGM Filling of Annual Securities Reports Is Plus, but May Take Long Before More Companies Do So
  • What’s News in Amsterdam – 25 February (AkzoNobel | Unilever | PostNL)
  • BBW: Moving on to Easter/Spring after Solid V-Day; Reiterate Buy, $58 PT

Trip.com (TCOM, 9961HK): 4Q24, Even Better Results, But Plunged as Expected

By Ming Lu

  • Total revenue grew by 24% in 4Q24, higher than 19% we expected.
  • The stock price plunged in Hong Kong as we expect in our preview note.
  • However, we believe, any stock decline over 11% means overreacted.

Trip.com Q424 Results | Higher Costs Finally Arrive, And With a Vengeance

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Net Revenue growth accelerated to +23% Y/Y in Q424, far stronger than in Q224 and Q324
  • But costs and expenses grew even faster, leading to surprisingly sharp margin contraction
  • We no longer view Trip.com as an attractive play on Chinese travel; airlines may outperform

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Jun25: One Change to Expectations; US$500mn One-Way Collectively

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, BSE 100, and BSE 200 Indices in the June 2025 index rebal event.
  • As things stand, there could be two index changes for the SENSEX index.
  • There could be two ADDs/DELs for the BSE 100 Index and four ADDs/DELs for the BSE 200 Index.

Potential Buyout of Nathan’s Famous by Smithfield Foods Could Unlock 45% Upside Amid Strategic Synergies

By Special Situation Investments

  • Nathan’s Famous is in potential sale talks, with major food manufacturers and PE firms as potential buyers.
  • Smithfield Foods, Nathan’s key partner, is well-positioned for acquisition, potentially eliminating royalties and achieving cost synergies.
  • Sum of the parts valuation estimates Nathan’s equity value at $604m or $148/share, a 45% upside potential.

How Is Sony Group Leveraging Synergy in Entertainment & Technology To Up The Ante!

By Baptista Research

  • Sony Group Corporation’s recent earnings highlighted its financial performance for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 and provided insights into future strategic direction amid a transitional leadership period.
  • The company’s revenue and profit saw substantial growth, yet certain challenges remain, reflecting the complexities within its diverse business segments.
  • Positive aspects of Sony’s financial performance include a 7% year-on-year increase in consolidated sales, excluding its Financial Services segment, reaching JPY 3,695.7 billion for the quarter.

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): More than Just BABA

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Dongxiang (3818 HK)‘s share price change has not sufficiently reflected Alibaba Group (9988 HK)‘s movement. Their share price ratio is now at a historical low. 
  • Its SOTP value increased by HK$927m with the surge in its PE, unlisted and fixed-income investment value, but its market capitalisation has gone up by just HK$258m.
  • Holdings in unlisted assets like Ant Financial and JD Technology (JD Digital) will benefit from the AI bonanza and the better sentiment in the HK IPO market.

Honda Motor Co.: How Is It Adapting To The Shifting Global Vehicle Mix & Regional Market Dynamics?

By Baptista Research

  • Honda Motor Co., Ltd.’s financial performance in the first quarter of FY 2025 presented a complex picture with both strengths and challenges noted.
  • On the positive side, Honda achieved its highest ever quarterly operating profit of JPY 484.7 billion, up JPY 90.2 billion year-over-year, translating into a robust operating profit margin of 9%.
  • The growth was largely driven by an increase in unit sales in the Motorcycle Business, particularly in India and Brazil, and a strong performance in the Automobile Business, especially with hybrid models in Japan and the U.S. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Pre-AGM Filling of Annual Securities Reports Is Plus, but May Take Long Before More Companies Do So

By Aki Matsumoto

  • 42 companies submitted their annual securities reports by the business day before AGM date, and most of them submitted their reports immediately before AGM, such as the day before AGM.
  • If the record date is moved forward from fiscal year-end, the problem of administrative burden will be solved. English-disclosure in annual securities reports will increase, and engagement will be positive.
  • For companies with a record date in their articles of incorporation, changing the record date would require general shareholders’ meeting, but only a few shareholders would oppose the change.

What’s News in Amsterdam – 25 February (AkzoNobel | Unilever | PostNL)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • AkzoNobel | to acquire Akzo Nobel India’s powder coatings business • Unilever | CEO Schumacher to leave the company unexpectedly; company reconfirms outlook • PostNL | main takeaways 4Q24 earnings call

BBW: Moving on to Easter/Spring after Solid V-Day; Reiterate Buy, $58 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $58 price target and projections for Build-A-Bear Workshop after visiting stores in Connecticut and Long Island.
  • We believe Build-A-Bear was once again a key winner during the Valentine’s Day season, with new items, a continued focus of expanding the offerings (Mini Beans and Giant “furry friends”) and leveraging new and licensed properties.
  • Further, Build-A-Bear continues to expand key properties such as Pokémon and Sanrio.

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Feb 26
0

Most Read: Xiamen Amoytop Biotech Co Ltd, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Trip.com, Makino Milling Machine Co, Mixue Group, Cambricon Technologies Lt, ZTE Corp H, Pentamaster International, JX Advanced Metals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Mar 25: LONGs Up ~12% Vs SHORTs in a Month; More to Come
  • Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas
  • Trip.com (TCOM, 9961HK): 4Q24, Even Better Results, But Plunged as Expected
  • Nidec Says It Won’t Raise Price on Makino (6135)
  • MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Small Float to Keep Stock Out of Most Indices
  • China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: China Rally Takes Cambricon Up, Up & Away
  • FXI Rebalance Preview: Two Sets of Changes as ZTE Breaks Out, China Coal Dumps
  • Pentamaster (1665 HK) Breaks Ahead Of Vote. Yet Pricing IS Fair
  • JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison or Lack Thereof
  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Mar 25: LONGs Up ~12% Vs SHORTs in a Month; More to Come

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the March 2025 index rebal event.

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

By Brian Freitas

  • Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. 
  • Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.
  • There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.

Trip.com (TCOM, 9961HK): 4Q24, Even Better Results, But Plunged as Expected

By Ming Lu

  • Total revenue grew by 24% in 4Q24, higher than 19% we expected.
  • The stock price plunged in Hong Kong as we expect in our preview note.
  • However, we believe, any stock decline over 11% means overreacted.

Nidec Says It Won’t Raise Price on Makino (6135)

By Travis Lundy

  • Nidec Corp (6594 JP) released a multi-page document regarding its bid for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) yesterday. 
  • It talked a bit about the back-and-forth with Makino, and gave Nidec’s side of the story. Makino has been making their side public too. A meeting is due early March.
  • In the document, there was a line suggesting Nidec won’t raise price even against a counteroffer. They didn’t need to say that. The question is what Makino will do.

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Small Float to Keep Stock Out of Most Indices

By Brian Freitas

  • Mixue Group (MIX HK) has priced its IPO at HK$202.5/share and will raise up to HK$3.97bn (US$511m) if the oversubscription option is exercised, valuing the company at HK$76.35bn (US$9.8bn).
  • Despite a US$10bn market cap, the stock will find it difficult to be added to global and local indices since 60% of the shares are unlisted.
  • The stock is likely to remain in the shadows for one global index and could be added to the other in December. HSCI inclusion could take place in September.

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: China Rally Takes Cambricon Up, Up & Away

By Brian Freitas

FXI Rebalance Preview: Two Sets of Changes as ZTE Breaks Out, China Coal Dumps

By Brian Freitas

Pentamaster (1665 HK) Breaks Ahead Of Vote. Yet Pricing IS Fair

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 19th December 2024, Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, to take out its pseudo dual-listed twin, Pentamaster International (1665 HK).
  • The Offer Price was HK$1.00/share – including a HK$0.07/share dividend – a 45.3% premium to last close, but arguably more like a 61% premium to undisturbed. 
  • The Court Meeting is the 28th February. Shares are down 15%+ in recent days. On no news.  Not a great look. 

JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison or Lack Thereof

By Sumeet Singh

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
  • JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
  • We looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

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Feb 25
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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: TSLA: Time to Buy? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • TSLA: Time to Buy?

TSLA: Time to Buy?

By Nico Rosti

  • Tesla (TSLA US) has been falling for 5 weeks in a row, this would be the sixth. Our quantitative proprietary models indicate a deeply oversold stock, possibly ready to rally.
  • A new vehicle launch, a long-awaited cheaper EV (sub $30,000) expected this year, plus refreshed Model Y sales, and unsupervised full self-driving could be good catalysts.
  • Musk’s approval ratings keep sliding daily, but many analysts think that is irrelevant and the stock’s growth story remains intact (at least in investors’ eyes…). Time to BUY?

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Feb 25
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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Singapore and HK Banks – New World Impairments Are Significant and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Singapore and HK Banks – New World Impairments Are Significant, Flow Through to Banks Is Real
  • Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Slips as Tech Drags, Trade War Fears Loom
  • Prices Drop, Eyes Pop: Mid-Month Insider Buying Activity Update – Part 3
  • [Precious Insights 2025/08] Gold’s Momentum Holds: Driven by Investment & Central Banks
  • Japan Morning Connection: 2-Days of Tech Weakness to Price in Will Be a Rough Start for Japan
  • RBI’s Monetary Policy: Growth Amid Disinflation

Singapore and HK Banks – New World Impairments Are Significant, Flow Through to Banks Is Real

By Daniel Tabbush

  • New World Development is now warning of losses from impairments in HK and China
  • We have already seen this some weeks ago from China Vanke, conditions still weakening
  • Banks in Hong Kong and China face more bad loans, but also those with exposures in the regions, like HSBC, STAN and Singapore’s banks

Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Slips as Tech Drags, Trade War Fears Loom

By Mark Chadwick

  • The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.2%, extending its decline into negative territory for 2025
  • Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s cabinet approval rating dropped to 40%
  • Berkshire Hathaway plans to increase its holdings in Japan’s five largest trading houses.

Prices Drop, Eyes Pop: Mid-Month Insider Buying Activity Update – Part 3

By Sreemant Dudhoria

  • Following our mid-month insider-buying report from last week, number of buying transactions has increased further. This is Part-3 of the series,providing an update on insider-buying activity from just last week.
  • Given this sharp decline in mid and small-cap Indian listed stocks, there has been a notable increase in insider buying activity in recent weeks.
  • As there are many companies with insider-buying this week (50 in total), we have divided this update into two parts for ease of reading.

[Precious Insights 2025/08] Gold’s Momentum Holds: Driven by Investment & Central Banks

By Amrutha Raj

  • Gold prices rose 8% YTD, supported by investment demand, central bank buying, and inflation concerns, despite weak jewellery sales.
  • GLD ETF gained 12.32% YTD, with strong inflows and bullish sentiment, though technical suggest possible short-term pullbacks.
  • CME gold options show bullish bets above $3,000, but rising put positions indicate some caution in the market.

Japan Morning Connection: 2-Days of Tech Weakness to Price in Will Be a Rough Start for Japan

By Andrew Jackson

  • MSFT cancelling leases for AI DC capacity sending semi-cap sharply lower.
  • Western Digital dropping after finalizing the split of its HDD and Sandisk businesses.
  • Japan trading houses will be a bright spot after Buffet’s letter signals more buying.

RBI’s Monetary Policy: Growth Amid Disinflation

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The RBI MPC shifted its focus to balanced growth by cutting the repo rate by 25 bps to 6.25%, marking the first rate cut in five years.
  • This move creates a supportive monetary environment, potentially stimulating private capex, boosting household consumption, and fostering a stronger economic recovery amid moderating inflation.
  • Investors should now expect enhanced growth prospects and improved market liquidity, as the RBI’s flexible, data-driven approach signals long-term stability and resilience in the economy.

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Feb 25
0

Daily Brief Credit: MELI 4Q24: Strong Results and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MELI 4Q24: Strong Results, While Leverage Remains Stable Amid Higher Debt

MELI 4Q24: Strong Results, While Leverage Remains Stable Amid Higher Debt

By Leandro Gubler

  • Operating metrics exceeded expectations, while credit-fueled growth increased debt. Leverage remained unchanged.
  • We remain optimistic about MELI’s financial and business risk profile. 
  • If the company achieves IG status, we believe its fundamental strengths are already reflected in current spreads. However, we estimate ~10 basis points of incremental upside from a technical bid.

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Feb 25
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Daily Brief ECM: JX Advance Metals IPO: Business Transformation Underway and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • JX Advance Metals IPO: Business Transformation Underway
  • Mixue Group IPO Valuation Analysis
  • MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights
  • JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison or Lack Thereof
  • Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group- The Good Story of GLP-1 May Not Bring High Valuation

JX Advance Metals IPO: Business Transformation Underway

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • JX Advance Metals, a unit of Japanese oil giant ENEOS plans to list on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. ENEOS will sell down a part of its stake and raise US$3.0bn.
  • Having split from the parent ENEOS, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is still on a business transformation and the company’s earnings show cyclicality.
  • The company’s earnings declined in FY03/2024, however, 9MFY03/2025 results show that earnings are on a recovery driven by improving demand coupled with structural reforms undertaken by the company.

Mixue Group IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Mixue Group plans to complete its IPO, selling 17.1 million shares at the IPO price of HK$202.50 per share. The IPO is expected to start trading on 3 March.
  • Our base case valuation of Mixue Group is implied market cap of HKD 96 billion or target price of HKD 254, which is 26% higher than the initial IPO price.
  • Our valuation sensitivity analysis suggests a range of HKD 206 to HKD 308 per share for Mixue Group. 

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison or Lack Thereof

By Sumeet Singh

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
  • JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
  • We looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group- The Good Story of GLP-1 May Not Bring High Valuation

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Innogen’s business, financial condition, operation results and prospects for the next couple of years are substantially dependent on the successful approval and commercialization of Efsubaglutide Alfa, indicating single product risk. 
  • Due to slower R&D progress and fierce competition brought by first movers and generic drugs, commercialization prospects of Efsubaglutide Alfa is highly uncertain, leading to potential lower-than-expected sales performance.
  • After Series B+ financing, the post-investment valuation of Innogen is already RMB4.65 billion. However, share price of peers has not done well, which makes us cautious about Innogen’s IPO prospects.

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