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Daily Brief Financials: Goodman Group, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Bank Negara Indonesia Persero and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Goodman Group (GMG AU) – Big Placement, Big Index Flow But…
  • Goodman Group Placement – Large Deal, Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged, Not Particularly Exciting
  • EquiLend Gets in on Korea’s Securities Lending Digital Shift: Trading Impact
  • Indonesian Banks Screener; Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) Stands Out


Goodman Group (GMG AU) – Big Placement, Big Index Flow But…

By Travis Lundy

  • After a minor “disaster” in a secondary placement in December, this morning industrial/infrastructure (including data centres) REIT/etc Goodman Group (GMG AU) announced results and an A$4bn primary offering.
  • The large offering comes at a 6.9% discount, and For a combination of reasons, there is a LOT of buying to do with index tracking over the next short while. 
  • But that too has complications. Some is immediate. Some a little delayed. A bunch may be supplied by short sellers. There is one easy trade. A few more complicated.

Goodman Group Placement – Large Deal, Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged, Not Particularly Exciting

By Sumeet Singh

  • Goodman Group (GMG AU) is looking to raise around US$2.5bn to partly fund its data centre expansion plans.
  • Goodman’s shares have performed exceptionally well over the past year, driven by its pivot towards data centers.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

EquiLend Gets in on Korea’s Securities Lending Digital Shift: Trading Impact

By Sanghyun Park

  • The remaining third of Korea’s local securities lending market is moving to digital, potentially sparking a whole new trading landscape.
  • Integrating EquiLend with local platforms boosts post-short-selling volume and shifts a large portion of manual trades into the digital space.
  • This could spark new algo trading strategies, and with short selling resuming March 31, we’ll need to track how the flow evolves.

Indonesian Banks Screener; Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) Stands Out

By Victor Galliano

  • Negara’s attractive valuations, its low PEG ratio and efficiency ratio should drive the share re-rating; pre- and post-provision were flat QoQ, but profitability ratios edged higher over the medium term
  • We like Mandiri for its attractive PE multiples and its robust credit quality, despite the 4Q24 returns blip; Mandiri has the second-best efficiency ratio and with further scope for gains
  • Rakyat’s high structural cost of risk remains a drag on its post-provision returns, with eroded further in 4Q24; although declining, returns are high but Rakyat valuations are not yet compelling

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Daily Brief Health Care: Sigma Healthcare, Vcanbio Cell & Gene Engineering, Incyte Corp, Terumo Corp, Medpace Holdings Inc, Avantor , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, BioLine RX , IN8bio , Inspire Medical Systems Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in March; Multiple Overlaps
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Jun25: One Change to Expectations; Adjustment to the Trade
  • Incyte: Can Opzelura Offset Jakafi’s $3.7B Patent Cliff by 2028?
  • Terumo Corp (4543 JP): Strong Demand Drives Q3FY25 Performance; FY25 Guidance Reiterated
  • Medpace: Why Biotech Firms Are Locking in Long-Term Deals With This CRO?
  • Avantor Inc.: 6 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond!
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals: Pipeline Progression & Product Launches As A Substantial Catalysts For Growth Trajectory!
  • BLRX: Aphexda Transition Progressing
  • INAB: Continued Survival in INB-100 Trial
  • Inspire Medical Systems: Will The Expansion of Inspira V Be A Game Changer?


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in March; Multiple Overlaps

By Brian Freitas

  • With 6 days left to review cutoff, there are 2 potential adds and 3 potential deletions for the MV Australia Equal Weight Index at the March rebalance.
  • Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3% and a round-trip trade of A$159m.
  • The final list of inclusions/exclusions will depend on price movements till next Friday and whether the provider makes any significant changes to the free float of stocks in the universe.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Jun25: One Change to Expectations; Adjustment to the Trade

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI Medical Service represents the top 50 largest and most-liquid stocks involved in medical devices, medical care, medical informatization, and other medical theme from the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing Exchanges.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
  • We expect up to three ADDs and three DELs for the CSI Medical Service index during this index review event based on the latest available data.

Incyte: Can Opzelura Offset Jakafi’s $3.7B Patent Cliff by 2028?

By Baptista Research

  • Incyte Corporation’s recent financial and corporate update for the fourth quarter and full year 2024 showcases a year of significant growth and strategic progress.
  • The company achieved a 15% increase in total revenues, reaching $4.2 billion for the year, driven by a robust 8% growth in Jakafi sales and a 50% surge in Opzelura revenues.
  • The financial health of Incyte remains strong, with $2.2 billion in cash reserves and no debt, allowing the company to complete a $2 billion share repurchase program.

Terumo Corp (4543 JP): Strong Demand Drives Q3FY25 Performance; FY25 Guidance Reiterated

By Tina Banerjee

  • Terumo Corp (4543 JP) reported record high revenue, operating profit, and net profit for both Q3FY25 and Q3 YTD. Global demand continues to expand, driven by the U.S.
  • In terms of segments, TIS and blood center business drove the growth. Steady progress in pricing measures and profit improvement measures led the bottomline outperforming topline, thereby improving profitability.
  • FY25 guidance implies Q4FY25 revenue of ¥238B, flat YoY and down 10% QoQ. Mainstay C&V business revenue is expected to decline 6% YoY to ¥139B due to seasonality.

Medpace: Why Biotech Firms Are Locking in Long-Term Deals With This CRO?

By Baptista Research

  • Medpace Holdings, Inc. reported for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2024, showcasing a mixed financial environment defined by growth challenges yet significant earnings improvements.
  • For the year, Medpace recorded revenues of $2.11 billion, marking an 11.8% increase from the previous year, with fourth-quarter revenues of $536.6 million, up by 7.7% year-over-year.
  • These increments indicate a steady income trajectory, albeit amidst a business environment tempered by rising cancellations and decreased new business awards.

Avantor Inc.: 6 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond!

By Baptista Research

  • Avantor, a global supplier of materials and services for the life sciences and advanced technology industries, reported its fourth-quarter 2024 financial results, indicating a mix of positive and challenging elements in its performance.
  • Avantor noted a return to low single-digit organic growth across the enterprise, a milestone that aligns with the broader market recovery.
  • The bioprocessing business, in particular, showed strong performance for a fourth consecutive quarter, achieving high single-digit organic growth.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals: Pipeline Progression & Product Launches As A Substantial Catalysts For Growth Trajectory!

By Baptista Research

  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals demonstrated notable progress in its financial and operational performance for the fourth quarter and full year 2024.
  • The company reported record revenues, attributed primarily to the sustained commercial success of its cystic fibrosis (CF) treatments and the initiation of CASGEVY’s launch.
  • Vertex’s total product revenue for the fourth quarter reached $2.91 billion, marking a 16% increase from the prior year, while full-year revenues surpassed $11 billion, reflecting a 12% growth rate.

BLRX: Aphexda Transition Progressing

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • BioLineRx is a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company with a development portfolio advancing motixafortide, a platform molecule targeting indications in stem cell mobilization (SCM) & in the treatment of advanced pancreatic cancer.
  • The candidate is approved in the US for SCM and is undergoing studies for use in gene therapy and in pancreatic cancer.
  • Partner Gloria Biosciences is developing motixafortide in Asia & is expected to be conducting bridging studies in the near term for SCM & longer-term studies for other indications.

INAB: Continued Survival in INB-100 Trial

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • IN8Bio is a clinical-stage, oncology-focused biotechnology company using ?d T cells against solid and hematological tumors.
  • Its pipeline is built on the DeltEx platform & drug-resistant immunotherapy (DRI) technology which have produced clinical candidates targeting leukemia & GBM.
  • INB-100 is evaluating leukemia in a Ph1 study, while INB-200 & INB-400 are Ph1 and Ph2 assets evaluating GBM.

Inspire Medical Systems: Will The Expansion of Inspira V Be A Game Changer?

By Baptista Research

  • Inspire Medical Systems demonstrated a strong performance in fiscal year 2024 with notable achievements and financial results.
  • The company showed significant progress in both the U.S. and international markets, indicating a positive trajectory for its operations and market presence.
  • Revenue for 2024 reached $802.8 million, marking a 28% increase from the previous year.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Intel Corp, Plover Bay Technologies, Telefonica SA, Sps Commerce, XL Axiata, Monday.com , On Semiconductor, Lattice Semiconductor, Amkor Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Intel. What’s Really Going On?
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – February 2025
  • Asset Sales as a Catalyst for Share Price Recovery
  • SPS Commerce Is Expanding Its Total Addressable Market (TAM) & Wallet Share But Does It Warrant A ‘Buy’ Rating?
  • XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) – Reasons to Be Cheerful
  • Monday.com’s Multi-Product Power Play: The Cross-Selling Strategy Fueling Massive Revenue Growth!
  • ON Semiconductor: Silicon Carbide Growth & Market Positioning Driving Our Optimism!
  • Lattice Semiconductor Corporation: Can It Capitalize On The Advancements in Far Edge AI Applications?
  • Amkor Technology: Solid Tailwinds From CHIPS Act & Regulatory Environment Driving Our Bullishness!


Intel. What’s Really Going On?

By William Keating

  • Carving out IFS & taking it private is the most likely outcome for Intel. However, it’s complicated by the SCIP deals and restrictions attached to the CHIPS money.  
  • Intel Products Group most likely stays with Intel, maintaining the iconic brand and doubling down on efficiency and innovation. I don’t think it gets sold. 
  • TSMC is unlikely to have any technical role in a spun out Intel Foundry due to a myriad of reasons including monopoly, conflict of interest, insufficient bandwidth etc.


Asset Sales as a Catalyst for Share Price Recovery

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Telefónica is actively pursuing asset sales in Latin America and Europe, aiming to streamline operations and reduce net debt. The company anticipates generating approximately €3.27 billion from these transactions.
  • Assuming minimal tax liabilities due to potential offsets from existing losses, the net proceeds could be applied directly to debt reduction, representing an 11.4% decrease in net debt (2.5x EBITDA).
  • Telefónica’s dividend remains well covered, with a dividend yield of 7.2% for 2025e, significantly above the 10-year Spanish bond yield (3.2%).

SPS Commerce Is Expanding Its Total Addressable Market (TAM) & Wallet Share But Does It Warrant A ‘Buy’ Rating?

By Baptista Research

  • SPS Commerce has reported a strong performance for the fourth quarter and full-year 2024, showcasing a notable growth trajectory.
  • For the full year, the company’s revenue increased by 19% to $637.8 million, with recurring revenue rising by 20%.
  • Fulfillment and analytics sectors also saw significant growth, with the former growing by 20% and the latter by 8%.

XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) – Reasons to Be Cheerful

By Angus Mackintosh

  • XL Axiata 4Q2024 results were solid despite lingering price competition in 4Q2024, especially from Telkomsel but this now looks to have abated with higher data pricing likely in 2025.
  • The company saw its revenues driven by increasing data traffic and higher ARPUs but XL also grew its subscriber numbers last year despite increasing data pricing ahead of competitors.
  • The FREN merger is ongoing with the completion due by end1H2025, with its Link Net restructuring complete, boosting its fixed broadband business. Valuations attractive with easing competition in 2025.

Monday.com’s Multi-Product Power Play: The Cross-Selling Strategy Fueling Massive Revenue Growth!

By Baptista Research

  • Monday.com’s fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 results, highlighted noteworthy achievements alongside challenges and strategic changes.
  • Roy Mann, Co-CEO, emphasized reaching a major milestone of $1 billion in annual recurring revenue, indicating robust demand for monday.com’s Work OS platform.
  • The company reported substantial growth with total revenue for Q4 2024 at $268 million—a 32% increase from the previous year—and an annual revenue of $972 million, marking a 33% year-over-year growth.

ON Semiconductor: Silicon Carbide Growth & Market Positioning Driving Our Optimism!

By Baptista Research

  • On Semiconductor Corporation’s latest earnings call for the fourth quarter and full year 2024 reveals a mixed set of results, shaped by a combination of strategic decisions and challenging market conditions.
  • The company’s revenue for the full year was $7.1 billion, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 45.5%.
  • This reflects a commitment to their transformation strategy focusing on intelligent power and sensing technologies, particularly in automotive, industrial, and AI data centers.

Lattice Semiconductor Corporation: Can It Capitalize On The Advancements in Far Edge AI Applications?

By Baptista Research

  • Lattice Semiconductor provided a detailed overview of its financial performance and strategic outlook for the third quarter of 2024.
  • The company’s results were generally in line with internal expectations, marking distinct progress in specific segments despite facing notable industry-wide headwinds.
  • Revenue for the quarter was reported at $127.1 million, maintaining alignment with previously provided guidance.

Amkor Technology: Solid Tailwinds From CHIPS Act & Regulatory Environment Driving Our Bullishness!

By Baptista Research

  • Based on Amkor Technology’s latest earnings call, the company’s performance for the fourth quarter and full year 2024 presented a mixed outlook with various challenges and achievements across different market sectors.
  • For the fourth quarter, Amkor Technology reported revenues of $1.63 billion and an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.43, aligning with earlier guidance.
  • However, the company witnessed a 3% revenue decline year-over-year, closing the year with $6.3 billion.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Ppb Group, Mixue Group, Britannia Industries, Tam Jai International, China Education Group, MIXUE Group, Super Micro Computer, Poper, Newell Rubbermaid and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: PPB In The Doghouse, But These Levels Are Excessive
  • MIXUE Pre-IPO – Updated Peer Comparison – Bigger, Faster, Stronger
  • India: March Rebalance Announcement Tomorrow; Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.5bn
  • Tam Jai International (2217 HK) Privatization – The Offer Price Is Good
  • China Education Group (839 HK): A Large Disappointment
  • MIXUE Pre-IPO – Updated Thoughts on Valuation
  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; DXY and Yields Forming Major Tops?
  • Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Poper (5134 JP)
  • Newell Brands: Portfolio Optimization & Distribution Expansion To Expand Market Share But Will It Work?


StubWorld: PPB In The Doghouse, But These Levels Are Excessive

By David Blennerhassett

  • PPB Group (PEP MK)‘s grains & agri arm, and four other feedmillers, has been labelled a cartel and fined by the Malaysian competition watchdog. A judicial review is ongoing.
  • Preceding my comments on Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

MIXUE Pre-IPO – Updated Peer Comparison – Bigger, Faster, Stronger

By Sumeet Singh

  • MIXUE Group Mixue Group is now looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
  • In our earlier notes, we have looked at the past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuations. In this note, we refresh the peer comparison.

India: March Rebalance Announcement Tomorrow; Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.5bn

By Brian Freitas

  • The Index Maintenance Sub-Committee of NSE Indices will meet on 21 February to conduct a semi-annual and quarterly review of stocks in various Nifty equity indices.
  • The changes will be announced after market close tomorrow and will be implemented at the close of trading on 28 March.
  • Based on the forecast index changes and capping changes for a few indices, the round-trip trade will be over US$2.5bn and many stocks will have over 0.5x ADV to trade.

Tam Jai International (2217 HK) Privatization – The Offer Price Is Good

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Tam Jai’s performance in recent years has been consistently below expectations. Its fundamentals have undergone negative changes after IPO. Consumers’ preference change may disrupt Tam Jai’s business model.
  • Based on our forecast and the Cancellation Price of HK$1.58/share, P/E will be higher than the industry average. Considering the low trading liquidity and concerns on outlook, HK$1.58/share is acceptable.
  • The fundamentals/prospects of Tam Jai are different from the situation of Henlius’ privatization.We recommend investors not reject the privatization easily because internationalization won’t bring significant positive changes in short term.

China Education Group (839 HK): A Large Disappointment

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Education Group (839 HK)‘s plunge in share price is due to management’s guidance for a 10-15% drop in adjusted net profit, significantly lower than the current consensus.
  • Its decision to pause dividends for the foreseeable future on debt repayment burden and tight offshore refinancing environment for the sector has further disappointed the market.
  • Based on guidance, its PER of 3.7x and nil dividend yield for FY25 make it unattractive relative to peers (1.7-2.9x PER). We shy away until things improve.

MIXUE Pre-IPO – Updated Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Mixue Group (MIX HK) is now looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
  • In our earlier notes, we have looked at the past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuations. In this note, we refresh our valuation.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; DXY and Yields Forming Major Tops?

By Joe Jasper

  • We are seeing signs that this 2+ month consolidation in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is ready to break out to the upside. Buy/stay long.
  • Part of that is the obvious; both the SPX and QQQ are breaking out to marginal new highs. 
  • The other part that has kept us bullish this whole time is that market dynamics have remained risk-on, which we have discussed on a weekly basis.

Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • MIXUE’s supply chain advantages and economies of scale remain ahead of peers. This creates a unique barrier. When peers engage in price wars, MIXUE can still gain greater cost advantages.
  • MIXUE’s performance growth depends significantly on its ability to expand franchised store network. But MIXUE may have reached the growth ceiling in China market based on its current expansion speed.
  • The market prefers the franchise models. Despite declining growth rate in the whole industry, MIXUE’s valuation should still be higher than peers – e.g. P/E of 17-20x is comfortable range.

Poper (5134 JP)

By Michael Fritzell

  • An emerging leader in online software for the Japanese private education industry, run by a young founder-CEO with skin in the game
  • Cheap at just 1.7x EV/Sales with a 20% target operating margin and 20-30% sustainable growth
  • Question marks include outsourcing of coding to third-party firms in the PRC, the potential impact of generative AI tools and less-than-ideal capital allocation

Newell Brands: Portfolio Optimization & Distribution Expansion To Expand Market Share But Will It Work?

By Baptista Research

  • Newell Brands has reported its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results for 2024, demonstrating progress in several areas amid challenging market conditions.
  • The company has been implementing a new corporate strategy which has yielded positive outcomes, although it acknowledges ongoing challenges.
  • Newell’s key focus for 2024 was to operationalize its new strategy and enhance its culture.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 14th): SK Hynix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 14th): SK Hynix, Hanwha Ocean


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 14th): SK Hynix, Hanwha Ocean

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Feb 14th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD3.7bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in SK Hynix, Hanwha Ocean.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Deepseek Rally Creates Winners in CLOUD and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Deepseek Rally Creates Winners in CLOUD, TELECOM and DATA CENTERS
  • Ohayo Japan | Intel and AI Steal the Show
  • [Precious Insights 2025/07] GLD ETF: Uptrend Intact Amid Bullish Sentiment and Seasonal Strength
  • Monday Delight: 17/02/25
  • Episode 105: Sanity Check on Custom ASICS?
  • #104 India Insight: RIL Faces Setback, SEBI Rejects Gaekwad’s Bid, Amazon Launches
  • The Market Timing Trap: Why Cashing Out Can Decimate Your Returns
  • [Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 7/52]: Xi’s Meeting with Ma Went Way Beyond Just Reconciliation
  • Japan Morning Connection: SPX at the ATH’s and Semi-Cap Plays Looking Strong to Start
  • Inflation Surge: A Deep Dive into the January CPI Spike and Its Implications


Deepseek Rally Creates Winners in CLOUD, TELECOM and DATA CENTERS

By David Mudd


Ohayo Japan | Intel and AI Steal the Show

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks ended mixed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.2% to a record close of 6,129
  • Intel surged after reports that rivals Broadcom (AVGO) and TSMC (TSM) are considering deals to split Intel into two entities.
  • Oasis Management has acquired an 8% stake in Taiyo Holdings, becoming a major shareholder

[Precious Insights 2025/07] GLD ETF: Uptrend Intact Amid Bullish Sentiment and Seasonal Strength

By Amrutha Raj

  • GLD remains in an uptrend but faces resistance at $250-$252, with support at $242-$245; momentum indicators suggest a cooling-off phase.
  • Investor sentiment remains bullish despite $801.89M in outflows, with 6.3% of top portfolios adding GLD and strong YTD performance.
  • CME Gold options market remains bullish, with a 0.63 put-call ratio and strong call open interest at 3000, 3100, and 3250 strike levels, signaling upside expectations.

Monday Delight: 17/02/25

By Contrarian Cashflows

  • Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
  • Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
  • If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

Episode 105: Sanity Check on Custom ASICS?

By The Circuit

  • Discussion on the balance between custom ASICs and GPUs in the tech industry
  • Concerns about over-excitement towards custom ASICs and potential loss of market share for GPUs
  • Considerations of architectural compatibility, innovation adoption, and economic viability for custom ASICs compared to GPUs.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


#104 India Insight: RIL Faces Setback, SEBI Rejects Gaekwad’s Bid, Amazon Launches

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Reliance Industries (RIL IN) faces a major setback as Delhi High Court rules in favour of GOI in a gas dispute, accusing RIL of fraud and unjust enrichment worth $1.7 billion. 
  • SEBI rejects Danny Gaekwad’s bid for a competing offer in Religare Enterprises (RELG IN) , citing lack of financial proof and inadequate due diligence.
  • Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) launches its 10-minute delivery service, Amazon Now, in Bengaluru, focusing on groceries and essentials. 

The Market Timing Trap: Why Cashing Out Can Decimate Your Returns

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Timing the market is considered to be a Myth of the market. The probability of achieving the timing, even with an optimistic 50% success rate per decision, is < 0.0001%.
  • The returns are impacted significantly when best performing days of the market are missed. Interestingly, many of the best-performing market days occur during or immediately following a market crash
  • The hedged portfolio has significantly smaller drawdowns compared to the unhedged portfolio, demonstrating how hedging can reduce portfolio losses during market downturns.

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 7/52]: Xi’s Meeting with Ma Went Way Beyond Just Reconciliation

By Ying Pan

  • Most Western media viewed Xi’s weekend handshake with Ma in the meeting with business leaders over the weekend as historical reconciliation. We believe it dangerously missed the mark; 
  • Watch Jiang Fan…His next move to revitalize Taobao/Tmall could mean headwinds to Pinduoduo and JD.com. Taobao/Tmall performed well during CNY;
  • Alibaba’s Apple grab shows its unique ecosystem position in the US-China macrocosm. JD’s entry to O2O showed it needed a new growth driver post 2025. 

Japan Morning Connection: SPX at the ATH’s and Semi-Cap Plays Looking Strong to Start

By Andrew Jackson

  • INTC +16% on the potential for a breakup should see TEL, Lasertec and Ibiden higher.
  • Micron’s new SSD’ offering helping memory plays up, possibly lifting Micronics even more.
  • Kokusai Electric’s short interest continues to grow despite the on going squeeze…now >10 dtc.

Inflation Surge: A Deep Dive into the January CPI Spike and Its Implications

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The CPI jumped 0.5% in January, the largest increase since August 2023, exceeding expectations and signaling a broad-based rise in the cost of goods and services. 
  • The hotter-than-expected inflation has led to a reassessment of monetary policy, diminishing hopes for rate cuts and leading the market to expect higher rates for years to come.
  • The significant surge in inflation impacts consumers through higher costs and impacts the Fed’s ability to reach its 2% inflation target. 

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Daily Brief ECM: JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case
  • Xtapli Placement – Questionable Timing. An AI Momentum Play, at Best
  • Hexaware Technologies IPO Trading – Very Strong Anchor, Very Poor Overall
  • JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Isn’t There Yet
  • Mixue Group IPO Preview
  • Mixue IPO: More than Just Tea. Key Facts, Financials and Analysis
  • Pre-IPO VISEN Pharmaceuticals (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Innovatiview India Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is a global leader in the semiconductor and ICT materials sector. It is seeking to raise up to US$2.6 billion.  
  • JXAM is a wholly owned subsidiary of ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP). After the listing, it is expected to become an equity-method affiliate of ENEOS.   
  • The bull case rests on its leading market position, focus businesses’ improving performance, improving profitability, shift to cash generation, and low leverage. 

Xtapli Placement – Questionable Timing. An AI Momentum Play, at Best

By Sumeet Singh

  • Xtapli is looking to raise around US$242m via a primary placement, after having raised US$145m in Jan 2025.
  • QuantumPharm is a R&D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&D solutions.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Hexaware Technologies IPO Trading – Very Strong Anchor, Very Poor Overall

By Sumeet Singh

  • Hexaware Technologies raised around US$1bn in its India IPO, while its anchor book was strong, overall coverage was not. 
  • Hexaware is a global digital and technology services company with AI at its core, delivering innovative solutions that help customers in their digital transformation journey and subsequent operations.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Isn’t There Yet

By Sumeet Singh

  • JX Advance Metal’s (JXAM) parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
  • JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Mixue Group IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Mixue Group is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong in the coming weeks. Mixue Group plans to raise about US$500 million from its Hong Kong IPO.
  • The company has an excellent income statement with notable growth in sales and profits in the past four years.
  • Net margin improved from 15.7% in 2023 and 18.7% in 1Q-3Q 2024, driven by higher sales base and lower major operating costs as a percentage of sales

Mixue IPO: More than Just Tea. Key Facts, Financials and Analysis

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Mixue Group, the largest freshly-made drinks company in China, is reportedly set to begin book building for its Hong Kong IPO by end-February, targeting to raise approximately USD 500 million.
  • Mixue Group (MIX HK)‘s mass-market pricing strategy and compelling value for money positioning targets price-sensitive consumers, especially in lower-tier cities and among youth, driving high-volume sales.
  • Mixue Group (MIX HK) reported robust revenue and profit growth for first nine months of 2024 led by new store openings and margin expansion despite sector slowdown and intensifying competition.

Pre-IPO VISEN Pharmaceuticals (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • All the three candidates lonapegsomatropin, TransCon CNP, palopegteriparatide in the pipeline of VISEN are based on Exclusive License Agreements with Ascendis Pharma. So, there’re concerns about VISEN’s independent R&D capabilities.
  • VBP would destroy the price system of growth hormone market in China, and market size would shrink due to price reduction and decreasing demand as fewer babies will be born.
  • Post investment valuation reached US$1.03 billion. Since leading domestic companies have dominated the market, it’s not easy for VISEN to break through. Valuation of VISEN could be lower than peers.

Innovatiview India Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Innovatiview India Ltd (INNOVATIVIEWINDIA IN)  is looking to raise about US$230m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are DAM, ICICI, JM FIn, Motilal.
  • Innovatiview India ltd (IIL) is a technology-driven provider of automated ancillary security and surveillance solutions for examinations, elections, and large-scale events across India.
  • IIL was the largest player in examination integrated security solutions in India, with a market share of 73.7% in terms of revenue for FY24, according to F&S Report.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Goodman Group (GMG AU): Much Bigger Index Impact of US$2.5bn Equity Offering and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Goodman Group (GMG AU): Much Bigger Index Impact of US$2.5bn Equity Offering
  • PEC Ltd. (PEC SP): Privatisation Offer From Liberty Group
  • Japan Eyewear Holdings: A Short-Term Setback, Long-Term Opportunity?
  • Profit Targets for TSMC (2330.TT) After Intel Acquisition Announcement
  • UniCredit’s Banco BPM Takeover: A Deal on the Brink?


Goodman Group (GMG AU): Much Bigger Index Impact of US$2.5bn Equity Offering

By Brian Freitas

  • Goodman Group went into a trading halt and then announced results and an underwritten equity placement of A$4bn (US$2.54bn) to pursue growth opportunities across logistics and data center operations.
  • The stock has dropped since CIC’s stake sale in December but still continues to handily outperform peers.
  • There will be some passive buying in the stock at the time of share settlement and more a few days later to mop up around 37% of the offering.

PEC Ltd. (PEC SP): Privatisation Offer From Liberty Group

By David Blennerhassett

  • PEC Ltd. (PEC SP), a plant and terminal engineering specialist, has (finally) announced an Offer from Allied Energy Services, an engineering entity under the Liberty Group.
  • Liberty is offering S$0.84/share (not final) – including a AS$0.20/share special  dividend – a 12.8% premium to undisturbed; but really more like a >35% premium. 
  • Irrevocables from the board of 63.38% have been secured. Looks pretty clean. Assuming late May payment, pay up to S$0.79/share for a 6%/15% gross/annualised spread. 

Japan Eyewear Holdings: A Short-Term Setback, Long-Term Opportunity?

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • On February 14, 2025, JEH announced the cancellation of its planned share offering and withdrew its Prime Market listing application due to a potential insider trading violation involving an executive.
  • While the news may trigger a sharp correction in the stock, JEH’s core business remains strong, driven by pricing power, expansion opportunities, and growing inbound demand.
  • If governance concerns are effectively addressed, the stock could offer a compelling buy-and-hold opportunity once market sentiment stabilizes.

Profit Targets for TSMC (2330.TT) After Intel Acquisition Announcement

By Nico Rosti

  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) started to rally after an article on the WSJ said that the Taiwanese company is considering buying Intel’s semiconductor manufacturing plants.
  • As always, buy the rumor, sell the news is a possibile strategy here: our models say the stock is getting quickly overbought (WEEKLY period).
  • In this insight we will provide some short-term, tactical guidance to identify profit targets, where can you expect to see the stock reaching in the next few days/weeks.

UniCredit’s Banco BPM Takeover: A Deal on the Brink?

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Danish Compromise Uncertainty: If Banco BPM fails to secure Danish Compromise approval, its CET1 ratio could decline by 268bps, making it a riskier acquisition for UniCredit, potentially jeopardizing the deal.
  • UniCredit’s Strategic Dilemma: UniCredit may renegotiate the exchange ratio, withdraw the bid, or pursue Commerzbank instead, as Banco BPM’s Anima acquisition increases capital consumption risks and complicates UniCredit’s strategic plans.
  • Market Skepticism: As of February 18, 2025, Banco BPM’s shares trade at €9.04, while UniCredit’s offer values them at €8.47, leading to a +6.7% gross spread.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC & Broadcom Exploring Intel Acquisition — Implications and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC & Broadcom Exploring Intel Acquisition — Implications
  • Resumption of Short Selling in Korea on 31 March and Potential Short Selling Candidates
  • [Baidu, Inc. (BIDU US, SELL, TP US$78) Preview]: Baidu’s Problem Is Deep Rooted and Getting Worse
  • Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK): It Seems like Quite Some People Are Unhappy
  • SUTL Enterprise (SGX: SUTL SP): A Leading Luxury Marina Developer for Asia Pacific
  • Midea IPO Re-Evaluation
  • Kiri Industries Q3FY25 Update: Legal Case Win & Copper Project
  • New Toyo International Holdings Limited (SGX: N08): A Stable Specialty Paper And Packaging Company
  • Cytokinetics Back In The Spotlight Amid Fresh Takeover Speculation: Why Big Pharma May Be Eyeing This Biotech Gem?
  • Papa John’s Takeover Bid? Why This Pizza Chain Could Be A Prime Target For Irth Capital!


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC & Broadcom Exploring Intel Acquisition — Implications

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC & Broadcom Exploring Intel Acquisitions; Potential Major Consolidation in the Foundry Space
  • Taiwan AI Server Leader Expanding to Texas with New Production Hub
  • Semi WFE Revenues Increase ~7% YoY In 2024. 2025 Looks Much The Same. So, Where’s The AI Effect? 

Resumption of Short Selling in Korea on 31 March and Potential Short Selling Candidates

By Douglas Kim

  • The resumption of short selling in Korea will start again on 31 March. There has been a ban on short selling in Korea since November 2023.
  • We provide some short selling candidates in Korea. Their sharply increasing share prices in the past five years have resulted in much more burdensome valuations.
  • Despite their burdensome valuations and sharply higher share prices, the remains high risk of some of these stocks that could overshoot to the upside.

[Baidu, Inc. (BIDU US, SELL, TP US$78) Preview]: Baidu’s Problem Is Deep Rooted and Getting Worse

By Ying Pan

  • We expect BIDU to post C4Q24 top line,non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income (5.1%), (7.7%) and (8.7%) vs. consensus.We expect BIDU to issue C1Q25 top line guidance (1.2%) vs.consensus;
  • BIDU’s problem is not only manifested in the loss of the Apple contract,it is also the loss of first mover advantage in both Generative Artificial Intelligence and Autonomous Driving Services. 
  • Losing traffic advantage, BIDU has become a self-containing app ecosystem but all pillars of this ecosystem is facing intensifying competition. SELL @US$78.

Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK): It Seems like Quite Some People Are Unhappy

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Tam Jai International (2217 HK)‘s privatisation price is lower than we expected, based on 1.37x 12-month forward P/B, against our expectation of 1.63x (the historical average).
  • The PER of 21.1x for CY25, a premiuim to sector average of 13.7x, however, looks attractive enough for investors that entered in the last 12 months. 
  • The 52.6% discount to IPO price (HK$3.33) and huge net cash have made some early investors unhappy. There is already letter from a minority shareholder calling to vote against it.

SUTL Enterprise (SGX: SUTL SP): A Leading Luxury Marina Developer for Asia Pacific

By Kilde

  • Singapore’s Premier Marina Operator. SUTL Enterprise is a leading Singapore-based marina developer, operator, and consultant, specializing in integrated luxury marina projects under its proprietary ONE°15 brand.
  • The company operates its flagship ONE°15 Marina Sentosa Cove and extends its expertise to third-party marinas through long-term management contracts and consultancy services. With a strong brand position and established industry leadership, SUTL is expanding across Asia-Pacific, capitalizing on growing demand for luxury yachting and premium marina infrastructure.
  • Diverse and Resilient Revenue Streams. SUTL generates revenue through recurring membership fees, marina management contracts, and sales of goods and services.

Midea IPO Re-Evaluation

By Alex Ng

  • Midea is a sound equity investment which is a market leader in the electronics products with just 12.8 trailing PE. 
  • China newly launched consumer trade-in policy could become the new driver of Midea’s revenue stream. 
  • Overseas business expansion could become the new game changer to re-rate the company’s valuation in the longer term.

Kiri Industries Q3FY25 Update: Legal Case Win & Copper Project

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Kiri Industries (KIRI IN) ’s Q3/9M FY25 results show revenue growth, operational enhancements, and a legal victory in the DyStar case, alongside a strategic shift in joint venture accounting.
  • The legal win and growth in high-margin segments signal improved profitability and future revenue potential, bolstered by a robust copper project on track for 2028.
  • The new copper unit: Company investing close to 8000Cr in the new copper business, In first phase co will invest near to 1100Crs.

New Toyo International Holdings Limited (SGX: N08): A Stable Specialty Paper And Packaging Company

By Kilde

  • New Toyo International, established in 1975, is a leading producer of specialty packaging materials in the Asia Pacific Region. Its operations span across Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Dubai, Indonesia and China. 
  • The Group has two core business divisions. Its Specialty Papers division focuses on the production of laminated foil paper, and coated paper and metalized paper, while the Printed Carton and Labels division offers mainly gravure and lithography or offset printing of packaging materials for cigarettes and fast-moving products. In addition, the Group has a trading business that focuses on tobacco packaging-related materials, as well as a corrugated cartons production operation.
  • For specialty paper, which is one-third of its revenues, but more than two-thirds of its profitability the company has maintained margins through active cost management and inventory control despite the recent decline in the revenues due to destocking.

Cytokinetics Back In The Spotlight Amid Fresh Takeover Speculation: Why Big Pharma May Be Eyeing This Biotech Gem?

By Baptista Research

  • Cytokinetics Inc. reported its third quarter 2024 results, highlighting significant developments across its pipeline and commercial readiness efforts.
  • A notable achievement was the completion of the rolling submission and the new drug application to the FDA for aficamten, a cardiac myosin inhibitor targeting obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM).
  • This represents a key milestone in Cytokinetics’ efforts to bring potentially transformative therapies to market.

Papa John’s Takeover Bid? Why This Pizza Chain Could Be A Prime Target For Irth Capital!

By Baptista Research

  • Papa John’s International recently announced their third-quarter 2024 financial results, delineating a mixedperformance.
  • The company’s primary focus is set on improving execution, profitability, and sustainable shareholder value.
  • Todd Penegor, the recently appointed President and CEO, along with a restructuring inthe leadership team, emphasizes a strategic drive toward refining product propositions, marketing strategies, and technology infrastructure.

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Daily Brief Macro: Smartkarma Webinar | Australia-ASEAN Summit: Prospering in Partnership and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Webinar | Australia-ASEAN Summit: Prospering in Partnership
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/07] Henry Hub Rises on Cold Weather and Declining Storage
  • UK: Hawkish Alignment As 2024 Ends
  • Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs and Reducing Bilateral Trade Imbalances
  • India & Trump’s Trade War
  • [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/07] WTI Falls for Fourth Consecutive Week on Tariff Concerns
  • First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Better Than Expected Results, But Cobre Panama Arbitration Delayed
  • CX Daily: How to Provide Relief as Personal Debt Piles up in China
  • Australia: 25bp Rate Cut to 4.1% (Consensus 4.1%) in Feb-25
  • Cocoa Price Update // CTAs Are Quite Long Commodities


Smartkarma Webinar | Australia-ASEAN Summit: Prospering in Partnership

By Smartkarma Research

In the next installment of our Webinar series, in collaboration with ASEAN Exchanges, we go live with Smartkarma Insight Provider Thomas Lam

  • Australia and ASEAN have built a strong, enduring partnership over the past 50 years, culminating in the Australia-ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) in 2021.

  • The CSP has accelerated inter-regional cooperation across key areas such as the energy transition, digital economy, health, and human rights, reflecting a shared commitment to regional stability and growth.

  • In October 2024, the 4th ASEAN-Australia Summit in Vientiane, Laos emphasized the importance of connectivity, infrastructure development, and economic integration to support ASEAN’s community-building efforts.

Join us as Thomas Lam shares his expert analysis on the Summit, and what the Australia-ASEAN collaboration means for the future of the ASEAN region.

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 26 February 2025, 16:30 SGT/HKT.

Thomas Lam has over two decades of experience in the realm of economics and finance, with expertise ranging from covering the global economy, deciphering financial markets, including macro forecasting, to advising on investment strategy. He commenced his career in New York, initially at a large money-center bank and then at a hedge fund. Thereafter, while in Singapore, he worked at two financial institutions and later joined academia. Tom has been consistently ranked among the top five most accurate economists in the world on forecasting the US economy overall (placed third, last published by the “Bloomberg Rankings of Top Forecasters”). During the Global Financial Crisis, he was also acknowledged as the second-best US forecaster worldwide.


[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/07] Henry Hub Rises on Cold Weather and Declining Storage

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 14/Feb, U.S. natural gas prices gained 12.6% on the back of colder weather forecasts, rising LNG exports, and falling inventories.
  • Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio dropped to 0.66 from 1.33 (07/Feb) the previous week as call volumes surged by 102.1% WoW, while put volumes inched down by 0.2%. 
  • Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.98 from 0.97 (07/Feb) last week. Call OI rose by 5.2% WoW, while put OI increased by 6.5%.

UK: Hawkish Alignment As 2024 Ends

By Phil Rush

  • Unemployment’s rising trend was a dovish crutch broken by stability in December, with the turn in underlying changes repeating the hawkish patterns after Jul-23 and Feb-24.
  • An intensification of wage growth to 0.7% m-o-m extended its hawkish trend to return the annual rate to around 6%, meaning no progress on where it started the year.
  • Payback in unemployment follows that in GDP, bringing the data to a more consistently hawkish position at the end of 2024. We still only expect a final BoE rate cut in May.

Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs and Reducing Bilateral Trade Imbalances

By Alex Ng

  • President Trump’s executive order on reciprocal tariffs has not produced much market reaction, as the proposals will not be delivered to the president until April 1
  • The process of Commerce/U.S. Treasury and Homeland Security input is seen reducing the odds of penal tariffs.
  • However, uncertainty still exists and the EU in particular is at real risk of threats and implementation in the spring.

India & Trump’s Trade War

By Sharmila Whelan

  • Buy and hold investors should be looking to buy on dip,  and we are structurally long Indian equities. 
  • However the attraction of India as a hedge against Trump’s  global trade war and China has diminished. Two reasons. 
  • First, India’s disappointing economic performance. Second, Trading Post’s expectations that the trade war will be over sooner than consensus is expecting and that a US-China trade deal will be struck.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/07] WTI Falls for Fourth Consecutive Week on Tariff Concerns

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures fell by 0.4% for the week ending 14/Feb, marking its fourth straight weekly drop. Prices fell due to trade policy uncertainty and rising crude inventories.
  • WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 0.94 from 1.18 (07/Feb) last week, as call volume rose by 23.6% WoW while put volume dropped by 1.6%.  
  • WTI OI PCR fell to 0.96 from 0.98 last week. Call OI dropped by 16.9% WoW, while put OI decreased by 20.1%.

First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Better Than Expected Results, But Cobre Panama Arbitration Delayed

By Sameer Taneja

  • Total copper production, excluding Cobre Panamá, was 431,000 tonnes—14% higher than the previous year and exceeding guidance of 420,000 tonnes. Gold production also surpassed guidance at 139,000 ounces.
  • Management believes the ICC’s five-month arbitration delay for the Cobre Panama mine, now set for February 2026, is unlikely to affect the pace of negotiations.
  • The company trades at an EV-EBITDA of 9.4x, which is more expensive than some of its peers. However, Cobre Panama’s option value materializing makes it attractive (4.7x EV-EBITDA).

CX Daily: How to Provide Relief as Personal Debt Piles up in China

By Caixin Global

  • Debt / Cover Story: How to provide relief as personal debt piles up in China
  • Private business /: Xi emphasizes private sector’s role in rare meeting with business titans
  • Shenzhen /: Shenzhen may report first drop in fiscal revenue since 1990

Australia: 25bp Rate Cut to 4.1% (Consensus 4.1%) in Feb-25

By Heteronomics AI

  • The RBA lowered the cash rate to 4.1% as inflation moderates faster than expected, with underlying inflation at 3.2% in the December quarter, supported by easing wage pressures and subdued private demand.
  • Labour market tightness persists despite overall economic weakness, with the unemployment rate at 4%, sustained employment growth, and high unit labour costs posing potential inflationary risks.
  • The outlook remains uncertain, with global risks including US trade tensions and geopolitical instability, while further rate cuts will depend on continued disinflation and stable labour market conditions.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Cocoa Price Update // CTAs Are Quite Long Commodities

By The Commodity Report

  • Cocoa Price Update Much of the price increase between summer and winter can be fundamentally explained with the decision by the cocoa board of the Ivory Coast (about 35-40% of global supply) not to allow farmers to plant new trees to discipline supply, as cocoa bean prices were too low from its perspective.
  • Also contributing were cyclical happenings such as complicated weather occurring, swollen shoot virus and speculation.
  • By now, the liquidity (measured by open interest in the futures market) in the cocoa market is quite low, making it almost impossible for smaller retail investors to participate in the market anymore.

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