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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jan 13
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Weichai Power Co Ltd H, Hutchmed China Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 10 Jan 2025): Super Wide Tech Spreads Best Over Holidays and into NY.
  • HUTCHMED to Divest 45% Stake in Non-Core Joint Venture with Shanghai Pharma

A/H Premium Tracker (To 10 Jan 2025): Super Wide Tech Spreads Best Over Holidays and into NY.

By Travis Lundy

  • AH Premia are lower over the last few weeks of holiday and this past week of heavy SOUTHBOUND buying on Tencent, telcos, and banks.
  • Finance and Tech are seeing large buying, but the really big moves over the past few weeks have been on Industrial Names (CRRC), and Materials, and Tech
  • The VERY WIDE Tech spreads such as SMIC (981), Shanghai Fudan Microelectric (1385), CHina Rail Signal (3969), and Flat Glass (6865) have been HUGE performers.

HUTCHMED to Divest 45% Stake in Non-Core Joint Venture with Shanghai Pharma

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • HUTCHMED announced the disposal of 45% equity interest in SHPL for US$608 million, including selling 35% equity interest to GP Health Service Capital and 10% equity interest to Shanghai Pharma.
  • There’re synergies between SHPL and Shanghai Pharma regarding TCM business. It’s necessary for HUTCHMED to sell non-core JV to reserve cash flow in advance to focus on innovative drug business.
  • The entire valuation of SHPL reaches RMB10 billion, or about 15x P/E. If HUTCHMED’s innovative drug business can bear fruit, its valuation has more room to grow in the future.

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Jan 13
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: China National Building Material and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • China National Building Material (3323 HK): Buyback Getting Even More Convincing

China National Building Material (3323 HK): Buyback Getting Even More Convincing

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The prices of the construction materials stocks collapsed recently, with China National Building Material (3323 HK) holding firm, thanks to the buyback proposal.
  • A sustained drop in cement prices and continued weakness in fixed asset investment revealed the challenging demand environment, making CNBM’s offer attractive.
  • The buyback price equals 25.7x and 10.8x PERs for FY24F and FY25F, representing a hefty premium over peers. We continue to believe this is a good exit opportunity. 

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Jan 13
0

Daily Brief Financials: ESR Group , US Treasury (10 Yr Generic), Nikkei 225 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (13 Jan) – ESR, Henlius, Goldlion, Canvest, 7&I, Fujitsu General, Pressance
  • High Government Borrowing: Nuanced Implications for US Treasuries
  • EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly – January 06 – 10

Merger Arb Mondays (13 Jan) – ESR, Henlius, Goldlion, Canvest, 7&I, Fujitsu General, Pressance

By Arun George

High Government Borrowing: Nuanced Implications for US Treasuries

By Said Desaque

  • The continuation of large budget deficits under the second Trump administration is causing concerns amongst investors about interest rate implications, but Treasury yields are determined by a multitude of factors.  
  • High government borrowing will typically impart greater stress on financial markets if private sector borrowing is also strong. Long-end yield curve steepening may reflect funding issues due to buyer shortages.
  • Current expected returns on Treasuries (both nominal and real) are highly elevated compared to recent history and should offer decent protection for investors. 

EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly – January 06 – 10

By John Ley

  • Weak price action to start the year for the Nikkei with little direction from USD/JPY which was grinding higher throughout the week.
  • Volatility at the start of the week helped push short term historic vol higher with at-the-money implied vol up about 1 point.
  • Volumes picked up substantially over year-end levels with Puts making up 53.5% of all contracts traded.

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Jan 13
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Weichai Power Co Ltd H, Hutchmed China Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 10 Jan 2025): Super Wide Tech Spreads Best Over Holidays and into NY.
  • HUTCHMED to Divest 45% Stake in Non-Core Joint Venture with Shanghai Pharma

A/H Premium Tracker (To 10 Jan 2025): Super Wide Tech Spreads Best Over Holidays and into NY.

By Travis Lundy

  • AH Premia are lower over the last few weeks of holiday and this past week of heavy SOUTHBOUND buying on Tencent, telcos, and banks.
  • Finance and Tech are seeing large buying, but the really big moves over the past few weeks have been on Industrial Names (CRRC), and Materials, and Tech
  • The VERY WIDE Tech spreads such as SMIC (981), Shanghai Fudan Microelectric (1385), CHina Rail Signal (3969), and Flat Glass (6865) have been HUGE performers.

HUTCHMED to Divest 45% Stake in Non-Core Joint Venture with Shanghai Pharma

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • HUTCHMED announced the disposal of 45% equity interest in SHPL for US$608 million, including selling 35% equity interest to GP Health Service Capital and 10% equity interest to Shanghai Pharma.
  • There’re synergies between SHPL and Shanghai Pharma regarding TCM business. It’s necessary for HUTCHMED to sell non-core JV to reserve cash flow in advance to focus on innovative drug business.
  • The entire valuation of SHPL reaches RMB10 billion, or about 15x P/E. If HUTCHMED’s innovative drug business can bear fruit, its valuation has more room to grow in the future.

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Jan 13
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: ZTE Corp H, Jusung Engineering, Tencent, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Cellnex Telecom Sau, Plover Bay Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 10 Jan 2025); YUUUUGE Net Buying by SB, $4bn on Tencent
  • FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes as Adds Rally Bigly
  • EQD | Tencent – Call Buyers Haven’t Lost That Loving Feeling
  • EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly –  January 06 – 10
  • Cellnex’s Strategic Divestment of Swiss Subsidiary
  • Plover Bay 1523 HK FY24 Earnings Preview: What Should We Expect in FY25
  • China Consumption Weekly (13 Jan 2025): NEV 2024, Tencent in Blacklist, Energy Monster Going Private

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 10 Jan 2025); YUUUUGE Net Buying by SB, $4bn on Tencent

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity was not stronger per day than the previous two weeks. But SB Net Buying was HUGE. The biggest week since global index deletions in January 2021.
  • The story was similar. On Tuesday in the US, Tencent was put on a DoD list leading to a possible CMC list appearance (which would lead to index deletions).
  • Tencent saw US$4bn of SOUTHBOUND net buying. SMIC, Xiaomi, and China Mobile were another $1bn.

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes as Adds Rally Bigly

By Brian Freitas

  • Early in the review period, we forecast 3 changes for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the April rebalance.
  • Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 0.6-1.6x ADV to buy in the adds and between 2-4.7x ADV to sell in the deletes.
  • The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes by a wide margin over the short-term and the medium-term. There could be more prior to the end of the review period.

EQD | Tencent – Call Buyers Haven’t Lost That Loving Feeling

By John Ley

  • Investors haven’t lost their enthusiasm for Tencent. The put/call ratio is a long way from indicating panic.
  • Implied vols have risen but are far from panic levels with 1M implied at it’s 39th percentile over the past year and 15th percentile since 2001.
  • Skew has risen significantly for out-of-the-money Puts as spot has moved into a range where there is higher Put positioning vs Call positioning. 

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly –  January 06 – 10

By John Ley

  • Strong price action, Kospi rising 2.32% on Monday and finishing the week up 3.24%
  • Implied vol was virtually unchanged and historic vols came down in the move higher.
  • Kospi tends to have its largest monthly average absolute price change during January.

Cellnex’s Strategic Divestment of Swiss Subsidiary

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Cellnex plans to sell its 72% Swiss subsidiary stake, potentially generating €1.1 billion, as part of a broader strategy to divest non-core assets and reduce debt.
  • Recent divestments in Austria, Ireland, and Scandinavia enable Cellnex to focus on strategic markets, targeting a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 5-6x by 2025/2026.
  • Optimizing its portfolio, Cellnex aims to boost shareholder returns via buybacks, higher dividends (which should attract income funds), and leveraging its strong market position in core European markets.

Plover Bay 1523 HK FY24 Earnings Preview: What Should We Expect in FY25

By Sameer Taneja

  • We preview Plover Bay Technologies’ (1523 HK) FY24 earnings and expect 25% revenue growth and 38% profit growth, aligning with the profit alert’s trends.
  • The company will declare its results on February 27th and hold a conference call to clarify its growth prospects for FY25 (vs our assumption of 20% avg-10 Yr growth)
  • This is a name worth exploring, trading at 16x/14x FY24e/25e, net cash, with >50% ROEs and 5%/6% dividend yields for FY24e/25e. 

China Consumption Weekly (13 Jan 2025): NEV 2024, Tencent in Blacklist, Energy Monster Going Private

By Ming Lu

  • NEV retail deliveries grew by 41% in 2024, higher than 36% in 2023.
  • The US Department of Defense designated Tencent as a Chinese Military Company.
  • Smart Share Global plans to go private, as the company has no exclusive advantage.

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Jan 13
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Bloks Group, Seven & I Holdings, Coca-Cola Europacific Partners, SHEIN, Smart Share Global, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Bloks Group (325 HK): Bumper Listing; Index Inclusion Timeline
  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The MBO Is Still Alive and Kicking
  • Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP LN): Halfway In F100
  • Poor Performance Before UK Lawmakers Is SHEIN’s Latest Stumble on Journey To London (Or HK?) IPO
  • ECM Weekly (13th Jan 2025) – LG CNS, Bloks, Guming, Crizac, Shift Up, Adani, Wuxi
  • Smart Share Global (EM US)’s MBO NBIO
  • “Danger Past, God Forgotten” How Long Will the Effect of TSE’s Request Last?

Bloks Group (325 HK): Bumper Listing; Index Inclusion Timeline

By Brian Freitas

  • Bloks Group (1850960D CH) was massively oversubscribed, traded 82% higher on Friday and closed its listing day 40% higher than the IPO price.
  • Bloks Group (1850960D CH) now has a full market cap of US$2.7bn. However, lock-ups and cornerstone allocations result in a much lower free float.
  • Index inclusions could take place in August and September, but the passive buying is a fraction of the number of shares that will come off lock-up expiry in early July.

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The MBO Is Still Alive and Kicking

By Arun George

  • On 10 January, Bloomberg reported that Apollo is considering an equity commitment of JPY1.5 trillion in the Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) MBO. 
  • Securing financing is a key challenge for the MBO. Apollo’s involvement suggests a shift to a higher mix of equity vs debt, which should ease concerns about securing debt financing. 
  • The article suggests that the MBO valuation could be lower than previously reported. However, 7&i’s underlying value supports a JPY8 trillion MBO valuation (market cap). 

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP LN): Halfway In F100

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP LN) was transferred on 15 November 2024, to the index’s eligible FCA listing category under the new regime.
  • The security needs to pass the liquidity test in both January and February 2025 to be assigned a UK nationality and become eligible for the March 2025 review.
  • The security has already passed the liquidity threshold by ~20% in November and December thus it has a solid probability of being added to F100 at the March 2025 review.

Poor Performance Before UK Lawmakers Is SHEIN’s Latest Stumble on Journey To London (Or HK?) IPO

By Daniel Hellberg

  • SHEIN’s general counsel frustrated UK lawmakers by refusing to answer certain questions
  • It’s the latest in a series of potential obstacles that could derail a planned London IPO
  • Add growing concerns over cotton supply chain & new threat from Amazon to existing risks

ECM Weekly (13th Jan 2025) – LG CNS, Bloks, Guming, Crizac, Shift Up, Adani, Wuxi

By Sumeet Singh

Smart Share Global (EM US)’s MBO NBIO

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 6th January, Smart Share Global (EM US), the largest provider of mobile device charging services in China, announced a preliminary non-binding proposal.
  • A consortium led by Mars Guangyuan Cai, Chairman and CEO,  collectively holding 63.4% of the voting rights, have made an Offer at US$0.625/share (US$1.25/ADS), a 74.8% premium to last close. 
  • Should a definitive agreement be inked, this is done. The risk to the trade, as with many US-listed China plays, is one of timing. Trading at a 26.6% gross spread.

“Danger Past, God Forgotten” How Long Will the Effect of TSE’s Request Last?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The improvement in ROA was not as large as that of ROE, which raises concerns that the improvement in profitability may be running out of steam.
  • Improvements in corporate governance in 2024 were even lower than in 2023. The repetitive loss of enthusiasm after danger past is seen in % Independent Directors, Nomination/Compensation Committee, etc.
  • The reason why stock valuations little increased despite Foreign Ownership’s 2024 increase might have to do with the fact that improvements in corporate governance have not spread to all companies.

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Jan 13
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Xiamen Amoytop Biotech Co Ltd, Imugene Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (12 Jan) – Henlius, GA Pack, Fujitsu General, Fuji Soft, Pressance, LG CNS
  • Henlius (2696 HK): LVC Won’t Block. Buy Here & On Weakness
  • STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Migrations & Outright Changes Lead to Outperformance
  • Imugene (IMU AU): Pipeline Progresses; Capital Injection to Extend Cash Runway to Late 2025

Weekly Deals Digest (12 Jan) – Henlius, GA Pack, Fujitsu General, Fuji Soft, Pressance, LG CNS

By Arun George

Henlius (2696 HK): LVC Won’t Block. Buy Here & On Weakness

By David Blennerhassett

  • Ahead of Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)‘s EGM and Court Meeting on the 22 January, the focus has shifted to Loyal Valley Capital (LVC)’s continued buying in the market.
  • After the close of market last Friday, LVC held 7.8295%, above the 7.826% blocking stake. That % was as at 9th January. I assume LVC are still buying.
  • Yet if you analyse how LVC has traded in and out of Henlius, they are not in it to block. They’re in for the back-end scrip option.  

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Migrations & Outright Changes Lead to Outperformance

By Brian Freitas

  • 95% of the way through the review period, there could be 3 changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 8 changes for the STAR100 Index.
  • We estimate turnover of 4.1% for the STAR50 INDEX and 9.3% for the STAR100 Index. The net round-trip trade is CNY 14.1bn (US$1.9bn).
  • The forecast adds to the STAR50 INDEX have outperformed the forecast deletes with steady outperformance over the last 3 months; the performance for the STAR100 Index is a lot better.

Imugene (IMU AU): Pipeline Progresses; Capital Injection to Extend Cash Runway to Late 2025

By Tina Banerjee

  • Imugene Ltd (IMU AU) announced dosing of the first Australian patient in the Phase 1b clinical trial of its allogeneic CAR T-cell therapy azer-cel in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.
  • Azer-Cel is one of the few allogeneic CAR T-cell therapies currently being evaluated in Australia. Azer-cel has potential revenue opportunity of $2.5B per annum.
  • Imugene intends to raise A$46M through convertible bonds and warrants. Cost savings initiatives provide cash runway into late 2025. Early-stage pipeline and fund raising requirement make Imugene a risky bet.

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Jan 12
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HSI to Find Strong Support Between 18.8K and 17.5K: Long-Term Uptrend Set to Restart and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HSI to Find Strong Support Between 18.8K and 17.5K: Long-Term Uptrend Set to Restart
  • A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 10th): Zoomlion, Livzon Pharm, CEA, CanSinoBIO
  • HK Short Interest Weekly: Alibaba, Smoore International
  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 10th): Tencent, China Mobile, ICBC, BOC, China Shenhua Energy, Meituan

HSI to Find Strong Support Between 18.8K and 17.5K: Long-Term Uptrend Set to Restart

By Nico Rosti

  • The Hang Seng Index started a stron uptrend in 2024 and rallied >40%, peaking in early October. From there it started to downtrend and digest the previous big move.
  • If you have a look at the Hang Seng Index WEEKLY chart below you can see we have traced an hypothetical trendline that could match the QUANTCHART WEEKLY supports area.
  • The index is at a critical juncture: the long-term uptrend could restart from here, so this could be a good opportunity to re-enter or to add positions to LONG holdings.

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 10th): Zoomlion, Livzon Pharm, CEA, CanSinoBIO

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 94.0% as of Jan 10th.
  • The average A-H premium changed by 0.5ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, consumer staples, consumer discretionary and offset by information technology, communication services, energy.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Zoomlion, Livzon Pharm, CEA, CanSinoBIO.

HK Short Interest Weekly: Alibaba, Smoore International

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 3rd.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
  • We highlight short changes in Alibaba/9988 HK  and Smoore International/6969 HK.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 10th): Tencent, China Mobile, ICBC, BOC, China Shenhua Energy, Meituan

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 10th.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, ICBC, BOC, China Shenhua Energy, Meituan.

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Jan 12
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): APAC Healthcare Weekly (Jan 12)- Wuxi Biologics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • APAC Healthcare Weekly (Jan 12)- Wuxi Biologics, Astellas, Otsuka, Samsung Biologics, Pharmaessentia

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Jan 12)- Wuxi Biologics, Astellas, Otsuka, Samsung Biologics, Pharmaessentia

By Tina Banerjee

  • Wuxi Biologics is selling its Ireland vaccine manufacturing facility to Merck for $500M. Astellas Pharma received approval for Vyloy in China for the first-line treatment of gastric cancer.
  • FDA decision for Otsuka’s label expansion application for brexpiprazole for the treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder will be delayed. EMA has accepted Otsuka’s marketing application for HAE drug candidate donidalorsen.
  • Samsung Biologics has extended collaboration with LigaChem Biosciences to provide ADC services. Pharmaessentia has announced positive topline results from phase 3 clinical trial of P1101 for Essential Thrombocythemia (ET).

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Jan 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Opportunity Within Europe and Japan; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Opportunity Within Europe and Japan; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts

Opportunity Within Europe and Japan; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts

By Joe Jasper

  • Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact. Actionable Themes today include Financials, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary (European Luxury Retailers)
  • We view this pullback as a buying opportunity and we are watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US; this is an important resistance-turned-support level dating back to July 2024.
  • Europe and Japan are on the cusp of major breakouts above critical resistance levels of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX

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