
In today’s briefing:
- [Japan Buybacks] – Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1
- Great Eastern (GE SP): SGX The Winner As Shareholders Block Exit Offer
- Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP): Minorities Secure a Pyrrhic Victory
- KOSPI 200: Event-Driven Strategies into the July 10 BoK Decision
- Global FX: Deep-dive into global FX hedge ratios
- NSDL IPO: The Bull Case
- Industrivärden’s H1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication
- KAIA Part 1: The New Frontier for Web3 Mass Onboarding
- Tosei Corp (8923 JP): 1H FY11/25 flash update
- Chesnara plc (CSN): Landing the big one

[Japan Buybacks] – Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1
- Japanese banks have been in a relative sweetspot for a couple of years. Higher rates, higher inflation, more FX volatility, better earnings, stronger buybacks. Cross-holding sales up but not spectacular.
- The BOJ may raise rates but Trump Tariff retaliation/mitigation is a question. Elections the next two weeks and earnings the 2-3 weeks after that may keep things a question.
- But buybacks should pick up. Lots announced in spring end at or before Q1 earnings. And I expect substantial new buybacks to be announced throughout the from Q1 results on.
Great Eastern (GE SP): SGX The Winner As Shareholders Block Exit Offer
- After OCBC bumped terms for Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) to $30.15/share via an Exit Offer, I wasn’t confident a 17.8% bump would dislodge Palliser. That appears the case.
- At today’s EGM, 63.49% of minority shareholders – OCBC abstained – were in favour on the Offer, falling short of the 75% condition. There was no blocking % condition.
- Shareholders voted for the resumption of shares via the issuance of shares (one-for-one bonus), satisfying the SGX free float requirement. The SGX, and dissenters, will be happy with the outcome.
Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP): Minorities Secure a Pyrrhic Victory
- The Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) delisting resolution failed as it was not approved by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders.
- The resumption of trading resolutions to restore the 10% free float requirement was passed. Trading will resume once the 10% free float requirement is met.
- Minorities have secured a pyrrhic victory as the OCBC (OCBC SP) offer was light, but there is no obvious catalyst to re-rate the shares. Deal break price around S$21.49.
KOSPI 200: Event-Driven Strategies into the July 10 BoK Decision
- Context: The Bank of Korea will announce its rate decision on July 10, 2025. This Insight compares market and option-implied expectations with historical KOSPI 200 reactions.
- Highlights: While average market reactions to BoK moves are historically muted, options are pricing in elevated volatility. Two event-driven strategies are discussed.
- Why Read: This Insight offers actionable, volatility-focused options strategies grounded in empirical data and current pricing—timely for traders seeking to monetize elevated volatility ahead of central bank and geopolitical events.
Global FX: Deep-dive into global FX hedge ratios
- Market participants should look at a bigger picture view of positioning in US equities, rather than narrow metrics like IMM or market participants only
- European countries, as well as Canada and Australia, are large holders of US equities, with pension funds being major players
- Australian pension funds have over 800 billion in US equities, with a flow rate of 1.2% of GDP going into foreign equities, and have low FX hedge ratios which could be raised in the future
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NSDL IPO: The Bull Case
- National Securities Depository Limited/NSDL (NSDL IN) is the largest depository in India. It is seeking to raise US$400 million.
- The depository market in India is a duopoly with high barriers to entry as each of the current depositories is promoted by large institutions.
- The bull case rests on outperforming its key peer on several metrics, the core business’s solid performance, signs of margin recovery, cash generation, and no debt.
Industrivärden’s H1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication
- Industrivärden’s NAV reached SEK 165.6 billion in H1 2025, up 4%, while C shares delivered a flat return and now trade at a 9.7% discount to NAV—below historical levels.
- The portfolio is highly concentrated, with 91% of NAV in five stocks: Volvo, Sandvik, Handelsbanken, Essity, and SCA—making it easily replicable but sensitive to industrial sector cycles.
- Management costs remain ultra-low at 0.08% of AUM, while net debt is just 2% of the portfolio. Credit quality is strong (A+/Stable), and dividends from holdings totaled SEK 9.4 billion.
KAIA Part 1: The New Frontier for Web3 Mass Onboarding
- In August 2024, Klaytn (backed by South Korea’s Kakao) and Finschia (developed by Japan’s LINE Tech Plus) merged to form the Kaia chain, a Layer 1 blockchain aimed at becoming Asia’s leading Web3 ecosystem.
- LINE, the leading messaging app in Japan, Thailand, and Taiwan, boasts approximately 200 million high-value monthly active users, with over 80% penetration in key markets, and is partnering with Kaia to deliver a rich Web3 experience on its platform.
- The key initiative of the Kaia-LINE NEXT partnership to onboard users from Web2 to Web3 is the Mini Dapp ecosystem, which mirrors the Telegram-TON partnership’s Game-Token-DeFi strategy, with the Kaia foundation driving developer engagement.
Tosei Corp (8923 JP): 1H FY11/25 flash update
- Revenue increased by 14.6% YoY to JPY66.1bn, with operating profit rising 18.1% YoY to JPY17.6bn.
- The company revised its full-year forecast, lowering revenue by 3.9% but raising operating profit by 4.7%.
- Assets under management reached JPY2.67tn, exceeding fiscal year-end targets, driven by new asset management contracts.
Chesnara plc (CSN): Landing the big one
- After a longer wait than planned, Chesnara has announced a large acquisition, HSBC Life (UK).
- At a cost of £260m, it is over 70% of Chesnara’s pre-announcement market capitalisation and will be funded by a mixture of equity, existing cash resources (primarily from the earlier Tier 2 bond issue) and drawing down from a newly increased revolving credit facility.
- The rights issue should complete by 23 July 2025, with deal completion in early 2026.