Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• Today, post-close of its first day of trading as MergeCo, Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) announced 12 different investors who had voted against the deal filed for dissenting shareholder share repurchase.
• This covers 27.154mm shares – a bit more than what Orbis owned when they last filed (25.5mm shs) and is just over half the AGM dissension.
• This creates some weirdness. A 5+% buyback is strong accretion, but “fair price” is a question, and it could mean smaller tender offer quantity and larger eventual index selldowns.

• The December 2025 index review results for China’s CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices were announced after market close on Friday 28th November 2025.
• There will be 11 ADDs/DELs for CSI 300 and 50 ADDs/DELs for CSI 500.
• The CSI 300 and CSI 500 index rebal events could trigger US$5.3bn and US$4.2bn in one-way flows respectively.

• Fast Fitness Japan Inc (7092 JP) has recommended a JGIA-sponsored MBO at JPY2,315, a 29.3% premium to the undisturbed price (31 October).
• There was media speculation about a tender offer last month. The offer is arguably light as it is below the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
• This is a done deal as the irrevocables to tender (20.65% ownership ratio) exceed the lower limit of the tender offer (17.12% ownership ratio).

• Dodla is entering a new growth phase with its Maharashtra plant, OSAM integration, premium value-added products, and stronger Africa operations, supported by a solid procurement network.
• With over 94% direct milk sourcing, better farmer yields through Orgafeed, and a rising VAP mix, Dodla is building a high-return, self-funded growth model.
• As capex peaks and free cash flows inflect post-FY27, Dodla is transitioning into a structurally compounding dairy platform with improving mix, margins, and regional balance.

• Geely’s deliveries grew by 24% YoY in November, reaching 65% of BYD.
• PHEV continued to accelerate and export deliveries rose strongly by 22% in November.
• We expect Geely’s stock price will rise by 20% in the next twelve months.

• Business Transformation to Live-Streaming E-commerce: East Buy Holding has pivoted from its origins in online education to a live-streaming e-commerce platform, focusing on the sale of private-label agricultural products and other premium goods. This strategic shift was necessitated by regulatory changes in the Chinese education sector.
• Financial Performance Under Pressure: The company’s recent financial results show a significant decline in revenue and net profit. For the fiscal year ended May 31, 2025, total net revenues decreased by 32.7% to RMB 4.4 billion, and net profit plummeted to RMB 6.2 million from RMB 249.1 million in the previous year. This downturn is largely attributed to the disposal of its education business and challenges in its new e-commerce venture, including a heavy reliance on a star livestreamer who has since departed.
• Evolving Strategy and High Uncertainty: Management is focused on developing its private-label brand, “East Buy,”and expanding its presence across multiple platforms, including its own app and other major e-commerce sites, to reduce reliance on any single channel. However, the business model is still evolving, and the departure of its top influencer has created significant uncertainty around future growth and profitability.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• Thunderbird Entertainment is being acquired by Blue Ant Media for C$1.77/share in cash and 0.2165 BAMI shares.
• Voss Capital and other major holders, owning 37% of TBRD, support the transaction requiring two-thirds vote approval.
• The offer implies a 3.4x FY26 EBITDA multiple, dropping to 2.6x with expected C$7m synergies.

• Relying on MINISO’s mature retail system, TOP TOY has achieved scale accumulation rapidly.Real challenge lies in whether it can continuously create “blockbuster proprietary IPs” and reduce reliance on licensing model.
• Due to smaller revenue proportion of proprietary IPs/overseas revenue and lower profit margin, valuation of TOP TOY should be lower than Pop Mart, but would be higher than MINISO.
• If based on 2025 forecast, valuation is RMB9.3-11.2 billion. So, post-money valuation of US$1.3 billion after Series A financing is not cheap. Valuation premium space after IPO may be lower-than-expected.

• Under Armour is navigating a significant turnaround amid persistent revenue declines and profitability pressures, particularly in its core North American market. The company’s success hinges on the execution of its latest restructuring plan under founder and CEO Kevin Plank.
• Intense competition from dominant players like Nike and Adidas, as well as high-growth brands like Lululemon, continues to erode market share and pressure margins. The brand is perceived as being caught between performance and fashion, struggling to establish a clear identity with consumers.
• The forward outlook remains challenging, with management guiding for a low-double-digit revenue decline in fiscal 2025. The strategy involves simplifying the business by reducing SKUs, focusing on premium products, and reinvesting in marketing to rebuild brand strength, though a tangible recovery is not expected until late 2025 at the earliest.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• Genting Bhd (GENT MK)‘s unconditional Offer for Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) closed yesterday, the 1st December, with GENT holding 73.13%, up from 49.99% initially. 
• The IFA previously opined the Offer to be NOT fair, and NOT reasonable. A bump in terms, long rumoured, failed to unfold. 
• Yesterday, GENM was one of three applicants selected by New York’s Gaming Facility Location Board for a full commercial casino license in downtown New York.