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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Dec 02
0

Daily Brief Australia: De Grey Mining, Northern Star Resources and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Northern Star’s A$5bn Tilt for De Grey (DEG AU)
  • Northern Star (NST AU) To Acquire De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Offer Details & Index Flow

Northern Star’s A$5bn Tilt for De Grey (DEG AU)

By David Blennerhassett

  • De Grey Mining (DEG AU), which boasts one of Australia’s largest undeveloped gold projects, has announced a merger, by way of  Scheme, with Northern Star Resources (NST AU).
  • Northern Star is offering 0.119 new shares for every De Grey share, and will hold ~80.1% of the combined entity, with De Grey shareholders the remaining ~19.9%. 
  • Terms back out an implied price of A$2.08/share, or a ~37% premium to last close. This Offer  has the unanimous backing of both boards. 

Northern Star (NST AU) To Acquire De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Offer Details & Index Flow

By Brian Freitas

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Dec 02
0

Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD / NSE Vol Update / Front-End IVs Battered as Wkly. Expiry Date Misses Out on Tier-1 Event Risks.
  • Higher NR Prices Erode Profits Of Indian Tire Majors In Q2 FY25

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Front-End IVs Battered as Wkly. Expiry Date Misses Out on Tier-1 Event Risks.

By Sankalp Singh

  • IV PercentRank metrics indicate middle-of-the-range Risk Premia. “High & Down” vol-state persists for the Vol Regime-Switching model.   
  • Front-End IVs battered  as Weekly options expire prior to Friday’s tier-1 event risks. IVs marked down -3.6 vols. 
  • IV Term-Structure shifts drastically – from Backwardation to Kinked-Shape. Year-end calendar effects causing Vol-surface distortions.

Higher NR Prices Erode Profits Of Indian Tire Majors In Q2 FY25

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Q2 FY 2025 sees NR prices hitting all-time high of INR 247/kg
  • Revenue of MRF, Apollo and CEAT goes up YoY; of JK Tyre dips
  • Tire prices hiked to mitigate impact of NR price rises

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Dec 02
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: PT Daya Intiguna Yasa Tbk (Mr DIY Indonesia) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Mr DIY Indonesia IPO – Has Aggressively Expanded Its Network

Mr DIY Indonesia IPO – Has Aggressively Expanded Its Network

By Clarence Chu

  • PT Daya Intiguna Yasa Tbk (Mr DIY Indonesia) (2517930D IJ) is looking to raise US$296m from its Indonesia IPO.
  • Mr DIY Indonesia (MRDIYI) is a home improvement retailer. The firm is the largest home improvement retailer in Indonesia with a 25.2% market share as per 2023 sales
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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Dec 02
0

Daily Brief United States: Cisco Systems, Applied Materials, Kulicke And Soffa Industries,, Jacobs Solutions , S&P 500 INDEX, DLocal, Williams Sonoma, Deere & Co, Dolby Laboratories Inc Cl A, J & J Snack Foods and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Cisco’s Game-Changing NVIDIA Partnership & AI Solutions Are A Potential Masterstroke? – Major Drivers
  • Applied Materials (AMAT): China Market Trends & Normalization Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers
  • Kulicke and Soffa Industries: These Are The 7 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond! – Major Drivers
  • Jacobs Solutions Unveils Bold Fiscal ’25 Outlook: Profit Growth That’s Hard to Ignore! – Major Drivers
  • EQD | Asia December Vol Roadmap – The Big Exhale
  • dLocal Limited: Its Efforts Towards Geographic Diversification & Market Expansion & Other Major Drivers
  • Williams-Sonoma Inc.: Will The Management’s Proactive Approach to Global Sourcing and Tariff Management Pay Off? – Major Drivers
  • Deere & Company: Precision Agriculture Expansion As A Pivotal Growth Lever! – Major Drivers
  • Dolby Laboratories: The Tale Of Strengthening Imaging Patents & Strategic Acquisitions! – Major Drivers
  • J&J Snack Foods: An Insight Into Its Product Innovation

Cisco’s Game-Changing NVIDIA Partnership & AI Solutions Are A Potential Masterstroke? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cisco Systems, Inc. recently reported its first quarter results for fiscal year 2025, showcasing numerous strengths as well as areas to watch closely.
  • The company’s revenue for the quarter reached $13.8 billion, sitting at the high end of their guidance range, though it marked a 6% decline year-over-year due to the previous year’s elevated backlog shipments.
  • The strength across Cisco’s lines of business was evident in their recurring revenue streams, which now account for 57% of total revenue.

Applied Materials (AMAT): China Market Trends & Normalization Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Applied Materials, Inc. recently reported its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 results, revealing several facets that contribute to its investment thesis.
  • The company recorded record revenue and earnings, marking five consecutive years of growth.
  • This performance underscores the competency of its strategy and execution, driven by the global team’s hard work.

Kulicke and Soffa Industries: These Are The 7 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Kulicke and Soffa Industries reported its fiscal fourth quarter 2024 results, highlighting several key developments and challenges.
  • The company’s revenue for the quarter was $181.3 million with a reported non-GAAP EPS of $0.34.
  • The results were influenced by improvements in some end markets but were hindered by continued softness in others, particularly the LED segment.

Jacobs Solutions Unveils Bold Fiscal ’25 Outlook: Profit Growth That’s Hard to Ignore! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Jacobs Solutions recently concluded its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 with a focus on a strategic shift towards a more streamlined operation centered on higher value and higher-margin portfolios.
  • The company completed the separation transaction of its Critical Mission Solutions (CMS) and Cyber & Intelligence businesses.
  • This resulted in a cash inflow of $911 million, which was used to repay existing debt, alongside acquiring a 7.5% equity stake in Amentum, which could increase to 8%.

EQD | Asia December Vol Roadmap – The Big Exhale

By John Ley

  • We introduce a new section this month showing implied vol vs average absolute December price movement. A good way to screen for straddle candidates for the month ahead.
  • Implied vols came in hard in November with the US election and the FOMC in the rear-view mirror.
  • Price performance across markets especially strong in the final week of the month with SP500, Nifty and SPASX200 postive on the month ~ 70% of the time. 

dLocal Limited: Its Efforts Towards Geographic Diversification & Market Expansion & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • dLocal Limited experienced a robust third quarter in 2024, demonstrating strong operational performance with record levels in both Total Payment Volume (TPV) and gross profit.
  • Key developments indicate the company is effectively regaining momentum after a less-than-stellar start to the year.
  • Positives from the quarter include a notable 41% year-over-year increase in TPV, reaching $6.5 billion.

Williams-Sonoma Inc.: Will The Management’s Proactive Approach to Global Sourcing and Tariff Management Pay Off? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Williams-Sonoma, Inc. reported favorable results for their third quarter of fiscal 2024, surpassing expectations on both the top and bottom lines primarily due to improvements in sales trends, innovation, and a strong profit margin profile.
  • The company’s focus on operational improvements and strategic initiatives was evidently contributing positively to its financial performance.
  • Comparable sales figures saw a slight drop by 2.9%, but this was still significantly better than the industry decline of 7% during the same period.

Deere & Company: Precision Agriculture Expansion As A Pivotal Growth Lever! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Deere & Company delivered a fourth quarter and full-year performance for fiscal 2024 in a context of declining sales and tough market conditions.
  • The company reported net sales and revenues down 16% for the year to $51.7 billion, with equipment operations showing a sharper decline of 19%.
  • Net income attributable to Deere stood at $7.1 billion, reflecting a challenging market impacted by lower agricultural demand globally.

Dolby Laboratories: The Tale Of Strengthening Imaging Patents & Strategic Acquisitions! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Dolby Laboratories’ fourth quarter results reveal a mixed performance marked by both challenges and opportunities.
  • Although Global Consumer Electronics sales and box office revenues remained soft throughout the year, the company has shown solid progress in various sectors, including content creation and partnerships in music, sports, and automotive industries.
  • One of the primary positive indicators is Dolby’s significant momentum in expanding its Dolby Atmos and Dolby Vision technologies.

J&J Snack Foods: An Insight Into Its Product Innovation

By Baptista Research

  • J&J Snack Foods Corporation experienced a year of growth in fiscal 2024, despite facing significant challenges from a complex consumer and economic environment.
  • Notably, the company achieved record annual sales figures and gross profit, and adjusted EBITDA increased by 10.2%.
  • These results were delivered amid pressures that affected consumer traffic in key markets including amusement parks, convenience stores, theaters, restaurants, and retail locations.

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Dec 02
0

Most Read: Korea Zinc, Sieyuan Electric Co Ltd A, Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology, Cloud Village, Seres Group , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Seven & I Holdings, Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Scie, Kioxia Holdings , Espressif Systems Shanghai and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Zinc Saga Turning into a Comedy Show: MBK’s Speculative Move & How It’s Shaping Our Trades
  • CSI300/CSI500/CSI1000 Index Rebalance: US$9bn Round-Trip Trade
  • STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance: No Changes for STAR50; 4 Changes for STAR100
  • KWEB Index Rebalance: 1 Add & 4 Deletes in December
  • SSE50/SSE180 Index Rebalance: Couple of Surprises; Seres Group’s Multiple Inclusions; US$3.2bn Trade
  • CSI Liquor/ Alcoholic Drink Index Rebalance: Capping to Drive Larger Flows
  • 7 & I (3382) – York Holdings Sale Process, Timeline, Nuances
  • CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Three Changes; Brutal Underperformance Could Reverse
  • Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bear Case
  • STAR Chip Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; US$413m Round-Trip Trade

Korea Zinc Saga Turning into a Comedy Show: MBK’s Speculative Move & How It’s Shaping Our Trades

By Sanghyun Park

  • Lee Bok-hyun, head of the Financial Supervisory Service, unexpectedly voiced concerns about MBK winning Korea Zinc’s management battle, catching everyone off guard.
  • The key question is how Michael ByungJu Kim will handle government pressure, with MBK possibly aligning with the opposition if the Democratic Party pushes for commercial law reform.
  • Korea Zinc now becomes a proxy war over governance reform. Watch MBK’s political stance, as it could drive the stock higher, especially if Michael teams up with the opposition.

CSI300/CSI500/CSI1000 Index Rebalance: US$9bn Round-Trip Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 16 changes for the CSI 300 Index, 50 changes for the CSI 500 Index and 100 changes for the CSI1000 Index that will be implemented on 13 December.
  • There are 257 unique names that are adds or deletes and the round-trip trade across all 3 indices is close to US$9bn.
  • Stocks with the largest inflows and impact have outperformed stocks with the largest outflows and impact over the last few weeks. That could continue for the next couple of weeks.

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance: No Changes for STAR50; 4 Changes for STAR100

By Brian Freitas

KWEB Index Rebalance: 1 Add & 4 Deletes in December

By Brian Freitas

SSE50/SSE180 Index Rebalance: Couple of Surprises; Seres Group’s Multiple Inclusions; US$3.2bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 5 changes for the SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX) and 18 changes for the SSE180 Index that will be implemented at the close on 13 December.
  • Seres Group (601127 CH) is an add to both indices, plus the CSI 300 Index, and passive trackers will need to buy over US$900m of the stock.
  • The adds have outperformed the deletes with a lot of the outperformance coming in the last couple of months. Trim positions in the expected adds/deletes and build positions in surprises.

CSI Liquor/ Alcoholic Drink Index Rebalance: Capping to Drive Larger Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • There is 1 add/ 2 deletions for the CSI Alcoholic Drink Index and no constituent changes for the CSI Liquor Index.
  • The largest flows arise as a result of capping of constituents to 15% of the index weight. Impact on the stocks varies from 0.2-0.6 days of ADV.
  • WeiLong Grape Wine outperformed the deletes in early October, but the deletes moved higher and closed the gap. The gap has started to open up again in the last week.

7 & I (3382) – York Holdings Sale Process, Timeline, Nuances

By Travis Lundy

  • The sale process of Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) “unit” York Holdings, with 31 sub-units, has started. 7+ bidders bid in Round 1. Due dili follows then Round 2.
  • I expect SST+support ops get sold, and the specialty stores get carved out. I expect the deal to get decided by end-Feb 2025. Noises about real estate enhancement are encouraging.
  • This is still all to the good, so I include a Gratuitous Chart Showing 7&i’s Up-And-To-The-Rightness

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Three Changes; Brutal Underperformance Could Reverse

By Brian Freitas

  • CSI announced the changes for the December rebalance after market close on 29 November and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 13 December.
  • There are 3 changes for the index and we estimate passive buying of 0.7-1.4x ADV in the adds and selling of between 0.2-1x ADV in the deletes.
  • Trade performance has been horrible as the adds have moved sideways over the last two months and the deletes have skyrocketed – that could change in the next two weeks.

Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) is a leading player in the NAND flash memory market. It will list on 18 December and seek to raise up to US$740 million.
  • In Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on unrealistic long-term financial model assumptions, market share losses, high customer concentration risk, volatile gross margin due to JV and weak FCF profile.

STAR Chip Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; US$413m Round-Trip Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • CSI announced the changes for the December rebalance after market close on 29 November and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 13 December.
  • There are 3 changes for the index and we estimate passive buying of 0.3-0.65x ADV in the adds and selling of between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the deletes.
  • On average, the adds to the index have outperformed the deletes over the last 5 weeks with the adds moving higher and the deletes trending lows.

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Dec 02
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Sansure Biotech , Legend Biotech Corp, Akeso Biopharma Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity CSI Medical Dec 24 Results: 3 Changes; All Expected; US$362mn One-Way
  • Legend Biotech: Can The Partnership With Multiply Labs Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers
  • 2025 High Conviction – China Healthcare: Chinese Biotech to Compete on the International Stage

Quiddity CSI Medical Dec 24 Results: 3 Changes; All Expected; US$362mn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The December 2024 index review results for the CSI Medical Service Index were announced after market close on Friday 29th November 2024.
  • There will be 3 changes for the CSI Medical Service index.
  • We predicted all the changes correctly but we expected a couple of extra changes which did not materialize.

Legend Biotech: Can The Partnership With Multiply Labs Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Legend Biotech, a biopharmaceutical company focused on cell therapies for cancer and other serious diseases, delivered robust financial performance in the third quarter of 2024.
  • The company reported accelerating adoption and sales of its flagship product, CARVYKTI, a CAR-T (chimeric antigen receptor T) cell therapy targeting multiple myeloma.
  • For the quarter, CARVYKTI generated approximately $286 million in net sales, reflecting an 87.6% increase year-over-year and 53.2% quarter-over-quarter.

2025 High Conviction – China Healthcare: Chinese Biotech to Compete on the International Stage

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Based on excellent data in HARMONi-2, Akeso’s investment certainty has significantly increased compared to a year ago. Accordingly, Summit plans to modify the clinical protocol to expand the ongoing HARMONi-3.
  • If the clinical trials go smoothly, Summit is able to sell AK112 (or the entire company) at a much higher price. Akeso would successfully become a Biopharma and achieve internationalization.
  • If AK112 is finally approved by the FDA based on HARMONi-2, Akeso’s market value would be higher than Innovent. If HARMONI-3 is successful, market value would be above RMB100 billion.

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Dec 02
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: De Grey Mining, Northern Star Resources, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Northern Star’s A$5bn Tilt for De Grey (DEG AU)
  • Northern Star (NST AU) To Acquire De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Offer Details & Index Flow
  • Higher NR Prices Erode Profits Of Indian Tire Majors In Q2 FY25

Northern Star’s A$5bn Tilt for De Grey (DEG AU)

By David Blennerhassett

  • De Grey Mining (DEG AU), which boasts one of Australia’s largest undeveloped gold projects, has announced a merger, by way of  Scheme, with Northern Star Resources (NST AU).
  • Northern Star is offering 0.119 new shares for every De Grey share, and will hold ~80.1% of the combined entity, with De Grey shareholders the remaining ~19.9%. 
  • Terms back out an implied price of A$2.08/share, or a ~37% premium to last close. This Offer  has the unanimous backing of both boards. 

Northern Star (NST AU) To Acquire De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Offer Details & Index Flow

By Brian Freitas

Higher NR Prices Erode Profits Of Indian Tire Majors In Q2 FY25

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Q2 FY 2025 sees NR prices hitting all-time high of INR 247/kg
  • Revenue of MRF, Apollo and CEAT goes up YoY; of JK Tyre dips
  • Tire prices hiked to mitigate impact of NR price rises

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Dec 02
0

Daily Brief Financials: MS&AD Insurance, NIFTY Index, DLocal and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Dec24), TSE Updates
  • EQD / NSE Vol Update / Front-End IVs Battered as Wkly. Expiry Date Misses Out on Tier-1 Event Risks.
  • dLocal Limited: Its Efforts Towards Geographic Diversification & Market Expansion & Other Major Drivers

Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Dec24), TSE Updates

By Travis Lundy

  • TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
  • 344 new CGRs were filed since 31 October. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and now a new diff file tool. Input a name, see the changes.
  • The TSE Council for the Followup to Market Restructuring met a month ago. They want more progress and more fairness in fair takeovers. Worth reading the docs (here).

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Front-End IVs Battered as Wkly. Expiry Date Misses Out on Tier-1 Event Risks.

By Sankalp Singh

  • IV PercentRank metrics indicate middle-of-the-range Risk Premia. “High & Down” vol-state persists for the Vol Regime-Switching model.   
  • Front-End IVs battered  as Weekly options expire prior to Friday’s tier-1 event risks. IVs marked down -3.6 vols. 
  • IV Term-Structure shifts drastically – from Backwardation to Kinked-Shape. Year-end calendar effects causing Vol-surface distortions.

dLocal Limited: Its Efforts Towards Geographic Diversification & Market Expansion & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • dLocal Limited experienced a robust third quarter in 2024, demonstrating strong operational performance with record levels in both Total Payment Volume (TPV) and gross profit.
  • Key developments indicate the company is effectively regaining momentum after a less-than-stellar start to the year.
  • Positives from the quarter include a notable 41% year-over-year increase in TPV, reaching $6.5 billion.

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Dec 02
0

Daily Brief Utilities: China Gas Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Earnings Have Stabilised

China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Earnings Have Stabilised

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Despite China Gas Holdings (384 HK)‘s marginal 3.8% drop in 1H FY25 net profit, it has rebounded from a 25.8% collapse in FY24. It maintained an interim DPS of HK$0.15.
  • Dollar margin expanded Rmb0.02/cu.m. and gross margin was up 0.8pp. Profit from value-added services grew 15.4%, though overall earnings are dragged by LPG and JVs.
  • FY25 is a year of profit recovery. Its improving cash flow, reduction in capex, and stronger balance sheet should support a stable dividend, putting it on a 7.8% yield.  

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Dec 02
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Jacobs Solutions , Deere & Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Jacobs Solutions Unveils Bold Fiscal ’25 Outlook: Profit Growth That’s Hard to Ignore! – Major Drivers
  • Deere & Company: Precision Agriculture Expansion As A Pivotal Growth Lever! – Major Drivers

Jacobs Solutions Unveils Bold Fiscal ’25 Outlook: Profit Growth That’s Hard to Ignore! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Jacobs Solutions recently concluded its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 with a focus on a strategic shift towards a more streamlined operation centered on higher value and higher-margin portfolios.
  • The company completed the separation transaction of its Critical Mission Solutions (CMS) and Cyber & Intelligence businesses.
  • This resulted in a cash inflow of $911 million, which was used to repay existing debt, alongside acquiring a 7.5% equity stake in Amentum, which could increase to 8%.

Deere & Company: Precision Agriculture Expansion As A Pivotal Growth Lever! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Deere & Company delivered a fourth quarter and full-year performance for fiscal 2024 in a context of declining sales and tough market conditions.
  • The company reported net sales and revenues down 16% for the year to $51.7 billion, with equipment operations showing a sharper decline of 19%.
  • Net income attributable to Deere stood at $7.1 billion, reflecting a challenging market impacted by lower agricultural demand globally.

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