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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Nov 27
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) – Murakami Stake Causes Pop But the Oppty Is Still Unconvincing and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • [JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) – Murakami Stake Causes Pop But the Oppty Is Still Unconvincing
  • Oriental Land ToSTNeT-3 Buyback From Keisei (9009) – It’s In the Plan And Looks Better Than It Is
  • Sanrio (8136 JP) Placement: Potential Global Index Migration Leads to Interesting Dynamics
  • Hyundai Motor Securities Announces a Rights Offering Involving a 49% Shares Dilution
  • DigiCo REIT (DGT AU) IPO: Offering Details & Index Implications
  • Event Driven: Arbitrage Opportunity in Orient Cement Open Offer by Ambuja
  • SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Changes Coming Up in December
  • EQD | Nikkei 225 : State Of The Odds (WEEKLY)

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) – Murakami Stake Causes Pop But the Oppty Is Still Unconvincing

By Travis Lundy

  • 13mos ago, activist investor Palliser Capital spoke at a conference about the value offered by Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) due to its large stake in Oriental Land (4661). 
  • Keisei outperformed OLC by 30% over 3.5mos. Then it fell all the way back, and more, over the next five months. Asset sale, buyback, AGM proposals. Meh. 
  • Nov 25th, Toyo Keizai wrote activist Murakami-san had acquired stakes of <5% in Keikyu Corp (9006 JP) and <1% in Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP). Shares in both jumped.

Oriental Land ToSTNeT-3 Buyback From Keisei (9009) – It’s In the Plan And Looks Better Than It Is

By Travis Lundy

  • In October 2023 and then in early 2024, activist Palliser Capital demanded that Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) sell down its stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP) to sub-15%.
  • Keisei in March sold 1% of OLC but in doing so, rejected the concept of removing equity affiliate status. They could go to a level just >15%, or just >20%. 
  • Today, OLC announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback of 18mm shares – the total for the 2yrs to Mar-26 announced (p19) in April. Keisei will sell and will stay above 20%. 

Sanrio (8136 JP) Placement: Potential Global Index Migration Leads to Interesting Dynamics

By Brian Freitas

  • Overnight, Sanrio (8136 JP) announced a placement of 25.87m shares to unwind crossholdings and improve corporate value. There is an overallotment option for another 3.88m shares.
  • There will be limited passive buying in the short-term and the shares offered is a large percentage of real float of the stock.
  • However, Sanrio (8136 JP) is the highest ranked non-constituent stock in a global index universe and a drop in the stock price could be used to accumulate positions.

Hyundai Motor Securities Announces a Rights Offering Involving a 49% Shares Dilution

By Douglas Kim

  • Hyundai Motors Securities announced a rights offering worth nearly 200 billion won involving a 49% shares dilution. 
  • The amount of shares dilution is excessive which is likely to result in a share price weakness in Hyundai Motor Securities in the coming weeks.
  • The expected rights offering price for now is 6,640 won per share which is 24.5% discount to the closing price on 26 November.

DigiCo REIT (DGT AU) IPO: Offering Details & Index Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • DigiCo REIT (DIGICO AU) is looking to raise nearly A$2bn in its IPO by selling 399.1m shares at A$5/share. Stock is expected to list on the ASX on 12 December.
  • HMC Capital (HMC AU) will own 18.2% of DigiCo REIT (DIGICO AU) after the IPO while IPO investors will own 72.5% of the company.
  • Subject to DigiCo REIT being an eligible stapled security, we expect the stock to be included in global and local indices between March and June mopping up 11.7% of float.

Event Driven: Arbitrage Opportunity in Orient Cement Open Offer by Ambuja

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • In Oct-24, Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN) acquired 46.8% stake in Orient Cement (ORCMNT IN) at Rs. 396 per share.
  • Now Orient cement is trading at 20% discount to open offer price.
  • This process can take approx. 2 months and can generate ~10-15% risk adjusted return by Jan-25.

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Changes Coming Up in December

By Brian Freitas

  • With 3 trading days left in the review period, we forecast 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
  • Passive trackers will need to buy between 1.2-3.6 days of ADV on the inclusions and sell between 0.3-3.1 days of ADV on the deletions.
  • The forecast adds have continued to outperform the forecast deletes and there could be more movement in stocks with relatively high ADV to trade.

EQD | Nikkei 225 : State Of The Odds (WEEKLY)

By Nico Rosti

  • The Nikkei 225‘s trend is uncertain at the moment: the new N225 WEEKLY QUANTCHART presented here (freely accessible 24/7 clicking here) shows us the current MRM models’ support and resistance.
  • In the last few months the index stalled, currently it is stuck in a range roughly between 37650 and 40250, and it has closed down for 2 consecutive weeks (CC=-2).
  • At the moment we expect the index to fall maybe another week (closing this week down) and then a LONG reversal the following week.

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Nov 27
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Crisp: More Friendly and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Crisp: More Friendly, Still Overbought

Crypto Crisp: More Friendly, Still Overbought

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Last Thursday, I shared my conviction in our Telegram crypto chat:
  • My two cents: We touch $100,000 (or very close) but we do not comfortably get on the other side.
  • This makes all the leverage and open interest (and retail euphoria) turn against us.
  • After witnessing the Bitcoin price face repeated rejections since then, I am even more confident in this view.

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Nov 27
0

Daily Brief Macro: Asian Equities: Be Selective – Focus on The “ROE Winners” and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Asian Equities: Be Selective – Focus on The “ROE Winners”
  • Active Global Funds:  Country Positioning – USA Highs, Japan Lows, Taiwan Record Ownership
  • Demand Uncertainty To Influence Rubber Markets In Q1 2025
  • India Politics: Modi and BJP Stabilize Support After State-Level Wins
  • The Week at a Glance – Bessent’s Agenda, Fed Minutes, Core PCE, and EU HICP in Focus
  • CX Daily: Livestreamed Stock Tips Worry Regulators as Novice Investors Rush In
  • Cold Front in the US Dominates Natgas Prices // Chinese Soybean Data and the Fade of Its Economy
  • Wrestling Euro Bears Before Christmas
  • Zambia’s Copper Renaissance

Asian Equities: Be Selective – Focus on The “ROE Winners”

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • Asia is cheap relative to the US – trading at less than 40% of US’s P/BV – but that’s because Asia’s ROE has consistently declined relative to US’s.
  • Over the next couple of years Asian ROEs are forecast to revive relative to the US’s but all Asian markets are not forecast to participate in this recovery.
  • The “ROE Winners” (rising forecast ROEs) are Korea, Taiwan, India, Malaysia. Indonesia to stay flat but solidly higher than Asian average. We are skeptical of HK/China and Thailand’s ROE recovery.

Active Global Funds:  Country Positioning – USA Highs, Japan Lows, Taiwan Record Ownership

By Steven Holden

  • USA hits record weights of 56.55% but remains a large underweight.  Europe’s big 4 comprise a +6.75% overweight. 
  • Taiwan closes in on China & HK as ownership soars to record highs.  Argentina hits fresh highs as Australia, Brazil and Sweden are increasingly avoided.
  • Japan exposure falls to record lows of 4.24% and  India overtakes China as the top EM country underweight among Global investors.

Demand Uncertainty To Influence Rubber Markets In Q1 2025

By Arusha Das

  • Short term supply shortage 
  • US and EU demand uncertain
  • Shipping cost spike in short term ahead of Trump’s tariff drive

India Politics: Modi and BJP Stabilize Support After State-Level Wins

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • The BJP of Indian premier Modi convincingly won the Maharashtra state elections despite losing ground in the state’s parliamentary seats in the June 2025 general election. 
  • The Maharashtra result was not a one-off.  The ruling coalition managed to hold its ground against the previously resurgent INDIA opposition bloc in other state contests.    
  • Modi and his party have corrected course sufficiently to stem any electoral bleeding, but risks from economic discontent and corruption-related controversies continue to weigh on public support. 

The Week at a Glance – Bessent’s Agenda, Fed Minutes, Core PCE, and EU HICP in Focus

By Andreas Steno

  • Happy Monday! This week is relatively quiet on the economic data front, with the main releases being the FOMC meeting minutes from the last meeting, Core PCE, and European inflation data to round off the week.
  • The most interesting development this week is how markets are reacting to the appointment of the new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent.
  • Yields are down, gold is down, and equities are surging higher.

CX Daily: Livestreamed Stock Tips Worry Regulators as Novice Investors Rush In

By Caixin Global

  • Livestreaming / Cover Story: Livestreamed stock tips worry regulators as novice investors rush in
  • Trade /Analysis: Southeast Asia gained from Trump’s China tariffs
  • Supply chains /In Depth: Trump is already shaking up U.S.-China trade

Cold Front in the US Dominates Natgas Prices // Chinese Soybean Data and the Fade of Its Economy

By The Commodity Report

  • Cold Front in the US dominates Natgas Prices During next week another cold front will arrive in the upper part of the US.
  • The temperature anomaly is quite negative – accordingly, natgas prices are currently on the rise.
  • As seasonally remain bearish and these temperature anomalies occur often during the winter months, we’ll keep our eye on short opportunities in the market.

Wrestling Euro Bears Before Christmas

By Phil Rush

  • The Euro’s trend weakness reflects rate differentials that are already stretched, with ECB cut pricing at the extremes erroneously priced for the Fed two months ago.
  • Labour market data matter, and not just to the Fed. Unemployment trends are even more hawkish in the Euro area, and the ECB should clarify the policy relevance of this.
  • Seasonality also supports a fading of the fundamental consensus story. EURUSD hasn’t fallen into yearend since 2016, and crowded positioning could compound the reversal.

Zambia’s Copper Renaissance

By Massif Capital Research

  • Copper is central to global infrastructure and the transition to renewable energy.
  • Zambia, a key player in the Central African Copperbelt, holds immense promise for copper investors, boasting some of the world’s richest geological assets.
  • This white paper explores Zambia’s copper mining landscape, highlighting the interplay of global demand, supply challenges, and Zambia’s evolving mining ecosystem.

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Nov 27
0

Daily Brief Australia: DigiCo REIT, Boss Energy, Structural Monitoring Cdi, Readcloud Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • DigiCo REIT (DGT AU) IPO: Offering Details & Index Implications
  • Boss Energy vs The Shorters… Who wins?
  • SMN earnings set for take off
  • Readcloud Ltd – Solid FY24 result a platform for growth

DigiCo REIT (DGT AU) IPO: Offering Details & Index Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • DigiCo REIT (DIGICO AU) is looking to raise nearly A$2bn in its IPO by selling 399.1m shares at A$5/share. Stock is expected to list on the ASX on 12 December.
  • HMC Capital (HMC AU) will own 18.2% of DigiCo REIT (DIGICO AU) after the IPO while IPO investors will own 72.5% of the company.
  • Subject to DigiCo REIT being an eligible stapled security, we expect the stock to be included in global and local indices between March and June mopping up 11.7% of float.

Boss Energy vs The Shorters… Who wins?

By Money of Mine

  • Project quickly shut down by company, but still moving forward
  • Concerns about Chinese buying in Australia
  • Waiting on cost release for project, anticipating higher costs due to increase in uranium price

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

SMN earnings set for take off

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has published an update on vertically-integrated aviation designer and manufacturer Structural Monitoring Systems (ASX:SMN) following the company’s recent guidance for FY25 and $7.2m capital raise.
  • FY25 revenue guidance is for $30m-$34m (RaaS was $35.5m), +14% at the midpoint on FY24, and for EBITDA of between $7.6m and $9.1m (RaaS forecast was $8.6m), +300% on the midpoint on FY24.
  • A capital raise of up to $7.2m at $0.52/share is being used to fund new product R&D (60%), working capital (20%) and CVM certification (20%).

Readcloud Ltd – Solid FY24 result a platform for growth

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS Research has published an update on edtech group ReadCloud (ASX:RCL) following its FY24 result in which it grew revenue by 15% and in line with our forecasts and positive underlying EBITDA of $0.4m, a $1.1m turnaround and ahead of our forecast for $0.1m.
  • The company has delivered on all stated FY24 targets, providing a platform for sustained profitable growth over the coming periods.
  • Management has pointed to 15% compound organic revenue growth out to FY26 to be complemented by further operating leverage and positive cash generation.

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Nov 27
0

Daily Brief Thailand: Com7 , Delta Electronics Thailand , Energy Absolute and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Changes Coming Up in December
  • Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Remains at Extreme Relative Value Even After Sell-Off
  • Energy Absolute: Energy Limited

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Changes Coming Up in December

By Brian Freitas

  • With 3 trading days left in the review period, we forecast 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
  • Passive trackers will need to buy between 1.2-3.6 days of ADV on the inclusions and sell between 0.3-3.1 days of ADV on the deletions.
  • The forecast adds have continued to outperform the forecast deletes and there could be more movement in stocks with relatively high ADV to trade.

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Remains at Extreme Relative Value Even After Sell-Off

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Delta Thailand Still Grossly Overvalued Even After Recent Correction; Under Market Surveillance Until December 11th
  • Delta Taiwan’s Market Cap Remains at Just 57% of Delta Thailand
  • Further Valuation Correction Likely Between the Two Names; We Believe Delta Taiwan Should Outperform

Energy Absolute: Energy Limited

By Warut Promboon

  • EA’s Q3 results on 14-November was disappointing as expected on the declining EBITDA.
  • Criat’s iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit (iRap) still indicates the implied international credit rating of “B+” which gives us relative comfort for the credit.
  • EA’s story rests on the usage of its network to extend debt maturity and sell assets, and not so much on cashflow which may be generated in the near term. 

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Nov 27
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Hyundai Motor Securities, Lotte Chilsung Beverage Co, MNC Solution and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Hyundai Motor Securities Announces a Rights Offering Involving a 49% Shares Dilution
  • Lotte Chilsung Beverage – Its Land in Seochogu, Seoul Is More Than 3x Its Market Cap
  • MNC Solutions Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Defensively, Would Ideally like a Further Discount

Hyundai Motor Securities Announces a Rights Offering Involving a 49% Shares Dilution

By Douglas Kim

  • Hyundai Motors Securities announced a rights offering worth nearly 200 billion won involving a 49% shares dilution. 
  • The amount of shares dilution is excessive which is likely to result in a share price weakness in Hyundai Motor Securities in the coming weeks.
  • The expected rights offering price for now is 6,640 won per share which is 24.5% discount to the closing price on 26 November.

Lotte Chilsung Beverage – Its Land in Seochogu, Seoul Is More Than 3x Its Market Cap

By Douglas Kim

  • Lotte Chilsung Beverage’s land in Seochogu, Seoul is estimated to be worth more than 3x its market cap. 
  • In the past several weeks, there have been increasing concerns about the overall debt pressures at the Lotte Group.
  • Lotte Group may be considering on selling some of its assets including Lotte Rental, Lotte Capital, and Lotte Chilsung Beverage’s Seochogu land. 

MNC Solutions Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Defensively, Would Ideally like a Further Discount

By Clarence Chu

  • MNC Solution (MNC KS) is looking to raise US$200m in its Korea IPO.
  • MNC Solutions (MNC) supplies high-precision control components for maritime and aviation weaponry, and travel devices for stabilization to the defense industry.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation.

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Nov 27
0

Daily Brief India: Orient Cement, PG Electroplast, NTPC Green Energy Ltd, Aegis Vopak Terminals Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Event Driven: Arbitrage Opportunity in Orient Cement Open Offer by Ambuja
  • 2025 High Conviction Idea: PG Electroplast
  • NTPC Green IPO Trading – Lacklustre Demand, Similar to Recent Listings
  • Aegis Vopak Terminals Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Event Driven: Arbitrage Opportunity in Orient Cement Open Offer by Ambuja

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • In Oct-24, Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN) acquired 46.8% stake in Orient Cement (ORCMNT IN) at Rs. 396 per share.
  • Now Orient cement is trading at 20% discount to open offer price.
  • This process can take approx. 2 months and can generate ~10-15% risk adjusted return by Jan-25.

2025 High Conviction Idea: PG Electroplast

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • PG Electroplast (PGEL IN) is India’s 2nd largest ODM player for washing machines. It also serve as ODM and OEM for leading brands in Room ACs, electronics, air coolers etc.
  • Company is guiding for 76% of topline growth as well as 250Cr of PAT for FY25, out of which 103Cr is already delivered. Also company revised guidance upwards in Q2. 
  • With 1500Cr of QIP in plan, company is looking for inorganic growth opportunities to make stronger growth going forward. 

NTPC Green IPO Trading – Lacklustre Demand, Similar to Recent Listings

By Clarence Chu

  • NTPC Green Energy Ltd (2214556D IN) raised around US$1.2bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • NTPC Green Energy Limited (NGEL) is a renewable energy public sector enterprise and a wholly owned subsidiary of NTPC Limited, a Maharatna central public sector enterprise (PSU).
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Aegis Vopak Terminals Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Aegis Vopak Terminals Ltd (1902844D IN) is looking to raise upto US$415m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI, IIFL, Jefferies, HDFC and BNP Paribas.
  • It is a joint-venture between Aegis Logistics, India’s largest third-party LPG handler and Vopak India BV, part of Royal Vopak, one of world’s leading tank storage companies, according to CRISIL.
  • AVTL was the largest Indian third-party owner and operator of tank storage terminals for LPG,  liquid products in terms of storage capacity, as of June 30, 2024, as per CRISIL.

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Nov 27
0

Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, ISDN Holdings, Koh Brothers and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Demand Uncertainty To Influence Rubber Markets In Q1 2025
  • SGX FX welcomes Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation as a key Liquidity Provider
  • Company Spotlight: ISDN
  • 10 in 10 with Oiltek International – Sustainable Solutions in the Global Vegetable Oils Industry

Demand Uncertainty To Influence Rubber Markets In Q1 2025

By Arusha Das

  • Short term supply shortage 
  • US and EU demand uncertain
  • Shipping cost spike in short term ahead of Trump’s tariff drive

SGX FX welcomes Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation as a key Liquidity Provider

By Geoff Howie

  • • SMBC’s worldwide network and specialised pricing will enhance the liquidity of Asian currencies on SGX FX’s eFX trading solutions platform for global buyside institutions.
  • SMBC was the first Japanese mega bank to stream prices directly to SGX FX clients and now extends this to SGX CurrencyNode, an electronic communication network operated by SGX FX.
  • About Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) Headquartered in Tokyo, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) is a leading global financial institution and a core member of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMBC Group).

Company Spotlight: ISDN

By Geoff Howie

Company Spotlight: ISDN

10 in 10 with Oiltek International – Sustainable Solutions in the Global Vegetable Oils Industry

By Geoff Howie

  • 10 Questions for https://investors.sgx.com/_security-types/stocks/HQU What is Oiltek’s business about and what are some key business segments? The company operates three key segments: Edible & Non-Edible Oil Refinery, Renewable Energy, and Product Sales and Trading.
  • Opportunities in growing business segments – The push in countries like Indonesia and Malaysia to use biodiesel, and the increasing adoption of SAF in the global airline industry spells opportunities for our Renewable Energy segment.

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Nov 27
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Demand Uncertainty To Influence Rubber Markets In Q1 2025

Demand Uncertainty To Influence Rubber Markets In Q1 2025

By Arusha Das

  • Short term supply shortage 
  • US and EU demand uncertain
  • Shipping cost spike in short term ahead of Trump’s tariff drive

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Nov 27
0

Daily Brief United States: Bitcoin, Exxon Mobil, Microstrategy Inc Cl A, Chevron Corp, Old Republic Intl, Hanover Insurance Group, Cna Financial, Lincoln National, C3.ai Inc, Build A Bear Workshop and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Crisp: More Friendly, Still Overbought
  • [Earnings Review] Exxon Beat Q3 Earnings Expectations with Higher Chemical Margins and Cost Savings
  • MSTR = Bitcoin (Garbage) Squared
  • [Earnings Review] Chevron Surpasses Expectations on Higher Output and Improved Efficiency
  • Old Republic International Corporation: Will Its Expansion of Specialty Underwriting Bring A Shift In The Competitive Dynamics? – Major Drivers
  • The Hanover Insurance Group: How Is The Management Tackling The Financial Strain from Expense Management
  • CNA Financial Corporation: An Analysis Into Its Growth in Gross Written Premiums & Profitable Segments & Other Major Drivers
  • Lincoln National Corporation: Dealing With Strategic Capital Deployment & 4 Other Critical Challenges! – Major Drivers
  • Is C3.ai Really Turning the Tide? A Deep Dive Into Reddit’s Favorite AI Enterprise!
  • BBW: Snapping the Store: Ready for Holiday Moments; Reiterate Buy, $41 PT

Crypto Crisp: More Friendly, Still Overbought

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Last Thursday, I shared my conviction in our Telegram crypto chat:
  • My two cents: We touch $100,000 (or very close) but we do not comfortably get on the other side.
  • This makes all the leverage and open interest (and retail euphoria) turn against us.
  • After witnessing the Bitcoin price face repeated rejections since then, I am even more confident in this view.

[Earnings Review] Exxon Beat Q3 Earnings Expectations with Higher Chemical Margins and Cost Savings

By Suhas Reddy

  • Exxon Mobil’s Q3 revenue fell by 0.8% YoY and net profit decreased by 5.1%. Revenue missed estimates by 4.2% but EPS exceeded expectations by 2.3%.
  • Exxon Mobil’s Q3 upstream production rose by 24% YoY to 4.6 mboepd, driven by strong output in Guyana and the Permian basin and the acquisition of Pioneer.
  • Exxon attributed its better-than-expected earnings in bottom-of-cycle conditions to structural cost savings, reduced expenses, high-return investments, and selective divestments.

MSTR = Bitcoin (Garbage) Squared

By Value Investing

  • Buffett has famously called Bitcoin a “mirage” and “rat poison squared”.

  • If so, then the corporate wrapper masquerading as intelligent leverage of Bitcoin known as MSTR equals that squared — and is perhaps the epitome of late-stage capital cycles expressed

  • Before I start, let me just say that I completely get the bull thesis behind Bitcoin. 

[Earnings Review] Chevron Surpasses Expectations on Higher Output and Improved Efficiency

By Suhas Reddy

  • Chevron’s Q3 revenue declined 6.3% YoY, while its net profit dropped 31.2%. Yet it beat its revenue and EPS estimates by 3.7% and 3.6%, respectively.  
  • Chevron achieved a record Q3 output of 3.36 mboepd, up 7% YoY, driven by Permian growth. Full-year production growth is expected near the top of its 4-7% guidance.
  • Chevron returned USD 4.7 billion in buybacks and USD 2.9 billion in dividends. Q4 is expected to see USD 1 billion in dividends and USD 4–4.75 billion in buybacks.

Old Republic International Corporation: Will Its Expansion of Specialty Underwriting Bring A Shift In The Competitive Dynamics? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Old Republic International Corporation reported its third-quarter 2024 earnings, revealing mixed results influenced by a range of market factors.
  • The company’s consolidated pretax operating income declined to $229 million, down from $251 million in the prior year.
  • Similarly, the consolidated combined ratio rose to 95% from last year’s 92%, indicating a deterioration in underwriting performance.

The Hanover Insurance Group: How Is The Management Tackling The Financial Strain from Expense Management

By Baptista Research

  • The Hanover Insurance Group’s recent financial results for the third quarter show a complex but generally positive picture of the company’s performance.
  • The firm reported an operating income of $3.05 per diluted share, with an operating return on equity of 14.4%.
  • This performance reflects improvements driven by strategic initiatives such as enhanced pricing, adjustments in insurance value, and targeted underwriting actions.

CNA Financial Corporation: An Analysis Into Its Growth in Gross Written Premiums & Profitable Segments & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CNA Financial Corporation reported strong financial performance in the third quarter, reflecting robust growth in core income and investment results, as well as strong underwriting performance.
  • The core income for the quarter was $293 million, driven by a $73 million increase in net investment income to $626 million pre-tax.
  • This surge in investment income was propelled by the positive performance of CNA’s alternatives portfolio and the growth of its fixed-income investments, which benefitted from higher book yields and a larger asset base.

Lincoln National Corporation: Dealing With Strategic Capital Deployment & 4 Other Critical Challenges! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lincoln National Corporation delivered a strong performance in the third quarter of 2024, showcasing its highest quarterly adjusted operating income in over two years.
  • This reflects positive momentum across all its business lines, driven by strategic initiatives focused on capital foundation, operating model optimization, and profitable growth.
  • The company has made considerable progress in aligning its operations with these strategic goals, although it acknowledges that the transformations required are part of a multiyear journey.

Is C3.ai Really Turning the Tide? A Deep Dive Into Reddit’s Favorite AI Enterprise!

By Baptista Research

  • C3.ai has been the subject of intense discussions on Reddit and other social platforms, with its stock witnessing significant volatility.
  • The buzz was fueled by its deepening partnership with Microsoft, robust pilot growth, and enhanced revenue projections.
  • The company recently reported its sixth consecutive quarter of accelerating revenue growth, closing Q1 FY25 with $87.2 million in revenue, up 21% year-over-year.

BBW: Snapping the Store: Ready for Holiday Moments; Reiterate Buy, $41 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $41 price target and projections for Build-A-Bear Workshop after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut.
  • We believe, after an outstanding Halloween season, Build-A-Bear pivoted to the Holiday offerings, with the return of Glisten & The Merry Mission “furry friends,” new Sanrio and Stich Holiday-themed looks, the addition of Holiday Mini Beans and key items for the Wicked motion picture release.
  • As such, and with gift card sales remaining robust, we believe Build-A-Bear is poised for a very strong Holiday period, especially when the costs of the Glisten movie are not anniversaried.

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