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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China & HK Strategy: What to Grab? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • China & HK Strategy: What to Grab?
  • Ohayo Japan | Edging Lower
  • Japanese Department Stores: The Elite Profit Machines
  • Thematic Report : Packaging Sector Is Back with Bang: What’s Fueling Revival?
  • Japan Morning Connection: Spike in Oil Positive for Inpex and Refiners
  • The Miners on our Radar this Quarterly Season


China & HK Strategy: What to Grab?

By Osbert Tang, CFA


Ohayo Japan | Edging Lower

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks edged lower Thursday as investors remained cautious ahead of Friday’s crucial jobs report, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.2%
  • Bank of Japan board member Noguchi suggests further interest rate hikes should be slow and cautious to protect the economy
  • UBE announced its largest-ever acquisition, buying LANXESS’s urethane business for €460 million (¥73.6 billion).

Japanese Department Stores: The Elite Profit Machines

By Michael Causton

  • Something remarkable has happened in the department store sector. A year ago, both big city stores and those in the regions were all still well behind sales levels in 2010. 
  • But stores in the largest 10 cities exceeded 2010 sales levels by 2% last year. Emphasising the yawning gap, regional stores extended their losses with sales down 42% on 2010.
  • The elite have also suddenly started making money. A lot of it. We now have a (very profitable) luxury retail sector and a (poor returning) middle-market general merchandise store sector.

Thematic Report : Packaging Sector Is Back with Bang: What’s Fueling Revival?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The packaging sector is making a comeback as key material spreads have been rising  which is being reflected in Q1FY25 results of the companies.
  • What makes this sector more interesting is certain promoters of these companies are buying share of the company from the open market along with fund infusion by some big investors
  • The biggest risk remains for the sector is pricing pressure and demand-supply mismatch but it seems bottom is being made for the sector

Japan Morning Connection: Spike in Oil Positive for Inpex and Refiners

By Andrew Jackson

  • Big move higher for oil set to spike the JP oil major Inpex although the refiners have large outstanding short interests and may squeeze
  • The higher oil price is negative for Japan’s utilities which have yet to restart reactors and are dependent on oil/gas imports to fuel their thermal generation
  • Details are limited on a potential Seven Bank stake sale by 7&I, but there should be room for upside as shorts continue to cover

The Miners on our Radar this Quarterly Season

By Money of Mine

  • Announcement of a free resource for money miners in the lithium space
  • Discussion about upcoming quarterly season and potential moves by Gina in Lion Town
  • Consideration of cash burns, balance sheet pressure, and potential takeover scenarios in the mining industry

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


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Daily Brief ECM: Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bear Case and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bear Case
  • Nanshan Aluminium International Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Rigaku IPO – Peer Comparison – Compensating for Smaller Scale with Better Growth and Margins
  • CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case
  • Chongqing Terminus Pre IPO Tearsheet
  • Pre-IPO Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical – Would Investors Be Willing to Take a Gamble?


Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) is Japan’s leading manufacturer of X-ray analysis, measurement and testing instruments. It is seeking to raise up to US$760 million.
  • In Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on weakening forward growth indicators, China revenue risk, rising cash conversion cycles, mid-tier FCF margin and large post-IPO share overhang. 

Nanshan Aluminium International Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

  • Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings (NAI HK)  is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Huatai International.
  • Nanshan Aluminium International is a leading alumina manufacturer in Southeast Asia.
  • The firm’s primary focus has been tapping into Indonesia’s abundant bauxite and coal reserves, utilizing the low-temperature Bayer process to produce metallurgical-grade alumina in sand form.

Rigaku IPO – Peer Comparison – Compensating for Smaller Scale with Better Growth and Margins

By Clarence Chu

  • Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) is looking to raise US$762m in its Japan IPO.
  • Rigaku engages in developing, manufacturing, sales and servicing scientific instruments specializing in X-ray technologies.
  • In our earlier notes, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case

By Arun George


Chongqing Terminus Pre IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

  • Chongqing Terminus (2471080D CH) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CITIC Securities and Haitong.
  • Chongqing Terminus is a leader and pioneer in China’s public realm AIoT (Artificial Intelligence of Things) industry.  
  • It leverages its innovative AIoT operating system, TacOS, to provide enterprises, public administrators and public realm participants with full stack AIoT products i.e. software, hardware and services. .

Pre-IPO Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical – Would Investors Be Willing to Take a Gamble?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Biokin’s traditional chemical drug and TCM businesses would continue to shrink and their valuation contribution can be negligible. The collaboration agreement for BL-B01D1 with BMS changes the outlook of Biokin.
  • The clinical data of BL-B01D1 look good so far, but the R&D failure risk of BL-B01D1 is not low. It is uncertain if BL-B01D1 would finally be druggable.
  • Biokin is overvalued and there is big bubble in valuation. If BL-B01D1 fails in R&D or its clinical data fail to meet high expectation, Biokin’s market value will plummet.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources
  • Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci


Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: How Netflix is upending Hollywood and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • How Netflix is upending Hollywood
  • Entree Resources: +84% YTD on Arbitration Leak? Or Rio Tinto M&A Speculation?
  • Episode 87: Shrinking Silicon (Meta Orion) and Excited about Hardware Again!
  • The Beat Ideas: Kilburn Engineering Limited: Differentiated Business, Multiple Acquisition, Growth
  • Astra International (ASII IJ) – Digging in Against the BEV Threat
  • Oriental Watch 398 HK Earnings Preview H1 FY25: Resilient at 7.2x PE, 14% Yield, 52% Mkt Cap in Cash
  • Veralto: The Power of Customer Dependency and Recurring Revenue
  • BigCommerce Holdings Inc.:Enhanced Enterprise Solutions
  • Peabody Energy Corp (BTU) – Thursday, Jul 4, 2024
  • Shenzhen Mindray (300760 CH): Sustained Growth Momentum; China Recovery To Provide Further Filip


How Netflix is upending Hollywood

By Behind the Money

  • Netflix recently hit an all-time high on the stock market, capitalizing on the chaos in the entertainment industry
  • The company was initially seen as a renegade tech startup, leading the streaming market with its first mover advantage
  • After reporting a loss in subscribers, Netflix announced plans to launch an advertising-supported business to combat competition in the streaming wars.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Entree Resources: +84% YTD on Arbitration Leak? Or Rio Tinto M&A Speculation?

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Entree Resources (ETG CN) has been roaring over the past three weeks on the back of …no official news!
  • As we highlighted in our prior insights we expected an arbitration ruling by late 3Q24, but there has been no news published by Entree or Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) 
  • Volume spike and price action remind us of Turquoise Hill buyout in 2022.

Episode 87: Shrinking Silicon (Meta Orion) and Excited about Hardware Again!

By The Circuit

  • Facebook’s original vision Pro demo showcased impressive technology with custom silicon and high miniaturization, but it is still far from being a consumer product.
  • Comparisons were made between Facebook’s demo and Apple’s vision Pro, highlighting different approaches to hardware development and philosophies.
  • Despite debates on shipping products and final designs, both companies are pushing the boundaries of technology and advancing towards a glasses form factor for AR/VR.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


The Beat Ideas: Kilburn Engineering Limited: Differentiated Business, Multiple Acquisition, Growth

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Kilburn Engineering (KEL IN) acquired new assets, expanded into waste heat recovery, and enhanced its market position with acquisitions in July and August 2024.
  • Debt settlement, 2 Fundraise, 2 Mega acquisition, diversification of revenue and margin improvement are some key positives for Kilburn.
  • Rs. 371Cr of Order Book, FY25E Revenue of Rs. 500Cr Revenue leads to 60% revenue growth and expecting margins of 20% will lead to huge potential for this company.

Astra International (ASII IJ) – Digging in Against the BEV Threat

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Astra International is well-positioned to fend off the challenge of incoming EV players to Indonesia, a country far more suited to Hybrid EVs, with little charging infrastructure.
  • Despite new entrants, the company has maintained its market share at 57% YTD, with Chinese EV makers fighting amongst themselves and other Japanese ICE brands losing some share. 
  • Astra continues to develop new HEV products, with a line up of 10 BEVs due by 2028 from Toyota but investments in the ecosystem are already underway. Valuations remain attractive.

Oriental Watch 398 HK Earnings Preview H1 FY25: Resilient at 7.2x PE, 14% Yield, 52% Mkt Cap in Cash

By Sameer Taneja

  • Oriental Watch (398 HK) will report its H1 FY25 result in mid-November. We expect earnings to be down 5-10% YoY, as SSSG would be flattish for the period.
  • We expect a 25-26 cent dividend ( ~14% yield annualized). With the stimulus measures in place, we expect China’s mood to be slightly more upbeat.
  • Oriental Watch (398 HK) goes ex-dividend today (23.5 cent/share dividend). As we enter trading today, it may be available at a higher yield. 

Veralto: The Power of Customer Dependency and Recurring Revenue

By Pyari Menon

  • With its Danaher Corp (DHR US) heritage, Veralto (VLTO US) has built a foundation based on durable and recurring sales growth, high profitability, and strong cash generation.
  • Veralto’s products and services are mission-critical yet account for less than 1% of client costs, leading to high switching costs and ensuring customer retention and financial resilience through economic cycles.
  • Veralto holds market leadership in both its Water Quality (WQ) and Product Quality & Innovation (PQI) segments, which positions it well for the increasing regulatory and environmental demands. .

BigCommerce Holdings Inc.:Enhanced Enterprise Solutions

By Baptista Research

  • BigCommerce, headquartered in Austin, Texas, conducted its earnings call for the second quarter of 2024, marking significant strides in the company’s growth amidst challenging business environments.
  • This complex economic landscape presents both opportunities as well as challenges which BigCommerce aims to strategically navigate.
  • As reported, BigCommerce’s revenue for the quarter was slightly under $82 million, reflecting an 8% year-over year increase.

Peabody Energy Corp (BTU) – Thursday, Jul 4, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Peabody is a global coal company operating in the US and Australia, offering exposure to both thermal and metallurgical coals
  • Despite recent success and a positive recommendation, the stock has lagged behind other coal companies
  • With a current share price of $23.40, market cap of $2.9bn, and strong FCF yield of around 30%, Peabody presents a promising risk/reward opportunity in the current market environment

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Shenzhen Mindray (300760 CH): Sustained Growth Momentum; China Recovery To Provide Further Filip

By Tina Banerjee

  • Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760 CH) reported double-digit growth in revenue and net profit in 1H24.
  • In-Vitro diagnostics and medical imaging systems segments drive performance, while patient monitoring and life support lagged.
  • International market continues to show strength, while China lingers for now.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Korea Zinc (010130 KS)’s ₩830 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Zinc (010130 KS)’s ₩830,000/Share Offer. Mmm …
  • Legal Chaos Amid Young Poong Filing a Criminal Complaint Against Korea Zinc’s BOD and What’s Next?
  • Kusuri No Aoki (3549) Big Buyback – Accretive, And May Involve Musical Shares
  • MBK Hikes Youngpoong Precision Tender Price to ₩30,000: Tender Deadline Extended to the 14th
  • Bharti Hexacom IPO Lockup – US$1.2bn Lockup Expiry, Will Have to Sell for Free-Float
  • Samson (531 HK): 21 Oct Shareholder Vote
  • Samson Holding (531 HK): Scheme Vote on 21 October
  • MBK Raises Tender Offer Price of Young Poong Precision to 30,000 Won
  • Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Dec 24: Special Focus on IT, Healthcare, and SOEs
  • SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes


Korea Zinc (010130 KS)’s ₩830,000/Share Offer. Mmm …

By David Blennerhassett

  • Never a dull moment for Korea Zinc (010130 KS) (KZ).  After MBK/Young Poong’s injunction to block KZ’s buyback was denied, KZ, together with Bain Capital, tabled a punchy Offer.
  • KZ has launched a 3.21mn share buyback (15.5% of shares out) at ₩830,000/share. Bain will also buy 2.5%. KZ’s buyback is to be funded by short-term loans and corporate bonds.
  • MBK/Young Poong have filed another injunction against this buyback. Its case has merit. And that legal overhang ostensibly accounts for KZ trading ~14% below the buyback terms. 

Legal Chaos Amid Young Poong Filing a Criminal Complaint Against Korea Zinc’s BOD and What’s Next?

By Douglas Kim

  • Young Poong filed a criminal complaint against the board of directors of Korea Zinc (010130 KS) who voted in favor of the tender offer by buying back Korea Zinc’s shares.
  • If Korea Zinc proceeds with the share buyback at higher price than the tender offer price by MBK, there are two main scenarios.  
  • Trading Action Point: If Uncertain, Watch the Price Action in the Next Several Days

Kusuri No Aoki (3549) Big Buyback – Accretive, And May Involve Musical Shares

By Travis Lundy

  • The drugstore space in Japan is super-interesting. The stories, the mergers, the activists. And of course, the defence against activists.
  • In Feb-2024, Aeon did a deal with an activist to cause a future deal between Tsuruha and Welcia. Aeon also owns a stake in Kusuri no Aoki Holdings (3549 JP)
  • The Aoki brothers (CEO and VP) exercised warrants in August and re-arranged their holdings. Now the family owns 34.7%. Today, after Q1 earnings, the company announced a 5+% buyback.

MBK Hikes Youngpoong Precision Tender Price to ₩30,000: Tender Deadline Extended to the 14th

By Sanghyun Park

  • MBK is raising its tender offer for Young Poong Precision to ₩30,000 per share, matching Choi’s offer and extending the deadline to October 14. Filing expected tomorrow before market open.
  • MBK targets 6.84 million shares, surpassing Choi’s 3.94 million cap. No hard floor, no cancellation risk, but MBK holds an edge in proration.
  • The buzz is whether MBK will raise its Korea Zinc bid beyond 900,000 KRW, as Choi prepped with a 950,000 KRW offer. A bid hike and extension seem likely.

Bharti Hexacom IPO Lockup – US$1.2bn Lockup Expiry, Will Have to Sell for Free-Float

By Sumeet Singh

  • Government of India raised around US$513m via selling some of its stake in Bharti Hexacom’s IPO in Apr 2024. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon.
  • Bharti Hexacom (BH) is a communications solutions provider offering consumer mobile services, fixed-line telephone and broadband services to customers in the Rajasthan and the Northeast.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Samson (531 HK): 21 Oct Shareholder Vote

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 16th July, furniture trader Samson Holding (531 HK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from Shan Huei Kuo, Samson’s Chairman.
  • The Cancellation Price is $0.48/share (final), a 50% premium to last close; but more notable if going back a month. This looks done. However, Samson is an illiquid micro-cap.
  • The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting to be held on the 21st October. Expected payment on the 14 November. The IFA says fair & reasonable.

Samson Holding (531 HK): Scheme Vote on 21 October

By Arun George

  • Samson Holding (531 HK)’s IFA opines that Mr Samuel Kuo (Chairman)’s HK$0.48 privatisation offer to be fair and reasonable. The vote is on 21 October. 
  • Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection). Despite the market rally, most peers’ shares have declined since the offer announcement. 
  • The attractive premium, lack of shareholders holding a blocking stake, and low AGM minority participation rate point to a done deal. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread is 3.2%/29.8%.

MBK Raises Tender Offer Price of Young Poong Precision to 30,000 Won

By Douglas Kim

  • MBK Partners announced that it is raising its tender offer price for Young Poong Precision from 25,000 won to 30,000 won, matching Choi family’s tender offer price of 30,000 won. 
  • Accordingly, MBK’s tender offer period for Young Poong Precision has been extended from 6 October to 14 October.
  • The revised up tender offer price of Young Poong Precision by MBK at 30,000 won is likely to result in boosting its stock price closer to the 30,000 won.

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Dec 24: Special Focus on IT, Healthcare, and SOEs

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The Hang Seng Index is the benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.
  • In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in December 2024.
  • The index changes for the December 2024 index rebal event will be announced after market close on 22nd November 2024.

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

By Brian Freitas


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Daily Brief Macro: China Liquidity Watch: USD easing allowed China to ease and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • China Liquidity Watch: USD easing allowed China to ease, but there is a caveat..
  • Positioning Watch – NFP could really shuffle USD markets given current positioning
  • Rate Cuts or Geopolitic Risks
  • The Drill: This Chinese stimulus is aimed at the financial economy and NOT commodities
  • Hedge Geopolitical Risk in the UAE
  • EU Proposal Triggers Fresh Talks Over EUDR Implementations
  • Going Activist in Japan – [Business Breakdowns, EP.185]
  • September Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 4 Oct 2024
  • [ETP 2024/40] WTI Prices Surge as Iran-Israel Tensions Rise; Nat-Gas Rallies on Output Cuts


China Liquidity Watch: USD easing allowed China to ease, but there is a caveat..

By Andreas Steno

  • The USD market will be flooded with liquidity in Q4, accompanied by rate cuts, providing Chinese authorities with a window of opportunity to ease policy.
  • However, there is one issue: CNY liquidity is tightening now.
  • Welcome to our weekly China Watch, where we examine Chinese assets through the lens of Western investors and markets.

Positioning Watch – NFP could really shuffle USD markets given current positioning

By Andreas Steno

  • Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.
  • The moves from last week continue with China still being super bid going into this week, and the flows that we are seeing into Chinese equity ETFs are becoming almost hilarious now, as everyone and their mother is piling into the China story at current junctures.
  • The weekly inflow is at 3.5 bn USD on a weekly basis now, so we’re talking a 5-6 std.

Rate Cuts or Geopolitic Risks

By Alex Ng

  • Israel will counteract Iran,  prompting a further missile attack by Iran.Our bias remains that Israel is to have a buffer zone in southern Lebanon and not fight a prolonged war.   
  • This limits the economic fallout globally and on oil prices. The U.S. presidential election will move markets but not until the result after Nov 5.  The bigger issue remain rate cuts.  
  • The market is underestimating cumulative BOE easing prospects however, while not discounting the 75bps of BOJ rate hikes we see by mid-2025. 

The Drill: This Chinese stimulus is aimed at the financial economy and NOT commodities

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Take aways: Risk premium in crude oil compressing due to Israel calling Iran’s game of chicken. Fade the strength in assets connected to the real economy.
  • Supply is still the biggest risk in crude oil. Strike risk in the US means Mexico is an opportunity.
  • Israel launched ground operations in southern Lebanon overnight, aiming to push Hezbollah away from areas near the border.

Hedge Geopolitical Risk in the UAE

By Phil Rush

  • Rising tensions in the Middle East increase focus on geopolitical risks, which are hard to hedge. The UAE’s neutrality has made it a natural safe harbour, and this remains true.
  • Dubai property is an investible hedge, with price inflation correlated to the geopolitical risk level because it attracts sticky capital inflows whenever risks crystallise.
  • Natural leverage through off-plan payment schedules lowers the capital intensity of this diversifying asset while also presenting families with an attractive political “plan B”.

EU Proposal Triggers Fresh Talks Over EUDR Implementations

By Arusha Das

  • EU commission proposes longer phase-in time  
  • Some tire makers are delaying EUDR rubber booking  
  • EU’s faltering EV market is a concern  

Going Activist in Japan – [Business Breakdowns, EP.185]

By Business Breakdowns

  • Introduction to new investment strategy: activism in Japan
  • Potential for high returns with unique approach to investing
  • Evolution of opportunity in Japan and potential for success due to increasing pro-shareholder culture

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


September Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

By Rikki Malik

  • A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing
  • Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
  • Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 4 Oct 2024

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • China’s markets may see upward movement, with economic recovery likely in the second half of 2025.
  • September PMIs were soft across most of Asia, with Vietnam disrupted by a typhoon.
  • Japan and Thailand face weak industrial production, prompting a recommendation to reduce exposure.

[ETP 2024/40] WTI Prices Surge as Iran-Israel Tensions Rise; Nat-Gas Rallies on Output Cuts

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 27/Sep, US crude inventories rose by 3.9m barrels, contrasting expectations of a 1.5m barrel drawdown. Gasoline stockpiles also unexpectedly grew.
  • US natural gas inventories rose 55 Bcf for the week ending 27/Sep, lower than analyst expectations of a 59 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 5.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.
  • Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger have all experienced target price downgrades, while Exxon Mobil received an upward revision to its target price. Notably, Goldman Sachs downgraded Occidental to Neutral.

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Daily Brief Australia: Rio Tinto Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September’24 Report


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September’24 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during September. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.6% (vs. 46.2% as of August 30); GBL, 40.7% (vs. 41.1%);
  • Heineken Holding, 14.9% (vs. 16.5%); Industrivärden C, 0.9% (vs. 1.7%); Investor B, 2.6% (vs. 1.9%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35% (vs. 35.7%). Rio DLC spread widened to 26% (vs. 19.8%).
  • What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).

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Daily Brief Thailand: Com7 , Valeura Energy Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes
  • Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Another strong quarter


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

By Brian Freitas


Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Another strong quarter

By Auctus Advisors

  • • 3Q24 production was 22.2 mbbl/d.
  • This is well above our conservative forecast of 20.4 mbbl/d that incorporated more provisions for downtime and steeper declines.
  • All the assets appear to be performing very well.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Zinc, Young Poong Precision and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Zinc (010130 KS)’s ₩830,000/Share Offer. Mmm …
  • Legal Chaos Amid Young Poong Filing a Criminal Complaint Against Korea Zinc’s BOD and What’s Next?
  • MBK Hikes Youngpoong Precision Tender Price to ₩30,000: Tender Deadline Extended to the 14th
  • MBK Raises Tender Offer Price of Young Poong Precision to 30,000 Won


Korea Zinc (010130 KS)’s ₩830,000/Share Offer. Mmm …

By David Blennerhassett

  • Never a dull moment for Korea Zinc (010130 KS) (KZ).  After MBK/Young Poong’s injunction to block KZ’s buyback was denied, KZ, together with Bain Capital, tabled a punchy Offer.
  • KZ has launched a 3.21mn share buyback (15.5% of shares out) at ₩830,000/share. Bain will also buy 2.5%. KZ’s buyback is to be funded by short-term loans and corporate bonds.
  • MBK/Young Poong have filed another injunction against this buyback. Its case has merit. And that legal overhang ostensibly accounts for KZ trading ~14% below the buyback terms. 

Legal Chaos Amid Young Poong Filing a Criminal Complaint Against Korea Zinc’s BOD and What’s Next?

By Douglas Kim

  • Young Poong filed a criminal complaint against the board of directors of Korea Zinc (010130 KS) who voted in favor of the tender offer by buying back Korea Zinc’s shares.
  • If Korea Zinc proceeds with the share buyback at higher price than the tender offer price by MBK, there are two main scenarios.  
  • Trading Action Point: If Uncertain, Watch the Price Action in the Next Several Days

MBK Hikes Youngpoong Precision Tender Price to ₩30,000: Tender Deadline Extended to the 14th

By Sanghyun Park

  • MBK is raising its tender offer for Young Poong Precision to ₩30,000 per share, matching Choi’s offer and extending the deadline to October 14. Filing expected tomorrow before market open.
  • MBK targets 6.84 million shares, surpassing Choi’s 3.94 million cap. No hard floor, no cancellation risk, but MBK holds an edge in proration.
  • The buzz is whether MBK will raise its Korea Zinc bid beyond 900,000 KRW, as Choi prepped with a 950,000 KRW offer. A bid hike and extension seem likely.

MBK Raises Tender Offer Price of Young Poong Precision to 30,000 Won

By Douglas Kim

  • MBK Partners announced that it is raising its tender offer price for Young Poong Precision from 25,000 won to 30,000 won, matching Choi family’s tender offer price of 30,000 won. 
  • Accordingly, MBK’s tender offer period for Young Poong Precision has been extended from 6 October to 14 October.
  • The revised up tender offer price of Young Poong Precision by MBK at 30,000 won is likely to result in boosting its stock price closer to the 30,000 won.

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Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • EU Proposal Triggers Fresh Talks Over EUDR Implementations


EU Proposal Triggers Fresh Talks Over EUDR Implementations

By Arusha Das

  • EU commission proposes longer phase-in time  
  • Some tire makers are delaying EUDR rubber booking  
  • EU’s faltering EV market is a concern  

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