China

• The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This will lead to large flows.
• The round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$32bn (US$4.1bn).
• Li Auto, Alibaba, NetEase, Zijin Mining, SenseTime and BYD Electronics are the largest buys while Tencent, Meituan, JD.com, Kuaishou Technology, Xiaomi and HSBC Holdings are the largest sells.

• MSC indices were rebalanced in the closing auction on Friday. Turnover for the day on the JSE was R41.9bn, R25bn traded in the closing auction (60%).
• Turnover at the February rebalance was R25.6bn. Most SA constituents were pushed lower in the closing auction and for the day, consistent with the downweighting of SA Inc.
• China was downweighted in the ACWI and EM indices for a second straight quarter, reducing the country weight in ACWI by 6bps to 2.69%.

• Unexpectantly, Great Eagle Holdings (41 HK) said it would not proceed with an Offer; and Hong Kong hotel-play Langham Hospitality (1270 HK) promptly cratered. But why the flip flop?
• Preceding my comments on GE, Langham and Champion REIT (2778 HK), are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• In 1Q24, Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)‘s international sales grew around 250% yoy, and made up around one quarter of sales (vs. 17% of sales in 2023). 
• I now expect 39% sales growth in 2024, driven by 140% yoy growth in the international business and 18% growth in domestic China business. 
• I further expect a 50% yoy growth in net profit growth in 2024 driven by a 0.8ppt increase in gross margin and 0.5ppt in operating leverage. 

• The HSI added BYD Electronics (285 HK) and deleted Country Garden Services (6098 HK). HSCEI added Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) deleted Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK) 
• HSTECH had no changes, but lots of flow. The index team sets capping levels, then resets them a three days before the actual rebalancing. There were some capping/recapping changes.
• Below we offer tables showing all the changes and flows across the indices for each stock, ranked by Flows, ADV, and Ticker. And a spreadsheet with all the relevant data.

• The June 2024 index review results for the ChiNext and ChiNext 50 indices were announced yesterday.
• There will be seven changes for the ChiNext index and five changes for the ChiNext 50 index. Some of these names surprised us.
• In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for the confirmed index changes and our thoughts on the selection process.

• The approval/filing process of China TCM’s privatization is complicated and would take some time, but there’re almost no cases of disapproval. It also depends on the adequacy of materials submitted.
• Due to the extension of time for the despatch of Scheme Document, this process would be delayed for more months.But we should receive clear information by October at the latest.
• For arbitrageurs, China TCM is an investment opportunity of high success rate, which becomes more attractive if HK stock market is depressed.It’s better suited to idle funds considering potential risks/returns.

• The market’s assumption of no special dividends in Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)‘s upcoming FY24 result is conservative, and this does not fit into its usual pattern. 
• Should it pay special DPS, the dividend yield may reach an attractive 10.7%. With its net cash position, CTF can financially maintain the average 135.6% payout ratio. 
• A return to its historical average dividend yield of 7.4% means that CTF’s share price will need to go up by 45% from the current level.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Vanke

• There are 7 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index at the June rebalance.
• We correctly forecast 5/7 and 7/7 for the Chinext Index adds/deletes and were 3/5 and 5/5 for the Chinext50 Index adds/deletes.
• Based on the estimated passive tracking AUM, the one-way trade across both indices is estimated to be CNY 3.69bn (US$508m).

• Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK) is looking to raise up to US$608m through a primary follow-on, via selling 270m H-shares.
• The deal is a somewhat large one to digest, at 10.6 days of three month ADV and 2.7% of current mcap.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• We have already discussed our flow expectations for the mainstream indices in the CSI family such as CSI300/500, SSE50/100, and the STAR50/100 for the June 2024 index rebal event.
• In this insight, we take a look at our flow expectations for the ADDs/DELs involved in the rebalance of some of the lesser known indices in the CSI family.
• The indices covered in this insight are All Share Brokerage, China Internet, Medical Devices, National Defense, and Livestock Breeding indices.

• Alibaba Pictures’ revenue increased by 44% YoY and EBTIDA increased by 61% in the March quarter.
• Cainiao, Alibaba’s logistics network, plans to purchase fresh food from the places of origin.
• Li Auto finished a round of layoff, in which headcount was reduced to 22,000 from 30,000.

• The June 2024 index review results for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices were announced after market close on Friday 31st May 2024.
• There will be 3 changes for the STAR 50 index and 9 changes for the STAR 100 index.
• We expect one-way flows of approximately US$750mn and US$314mn for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 index rebal events in June 2024.

• The June 2024 index review results for the SSE 50 and SSE 180 indices were announced after market close on Friday 31st May 2024.
• There will be 5 changes for the SSE 50 index and 18 changes for the SSE 180 index.
• These changes could collectively cause one-way index flows of ~US$1.8bn during the June 2024 index rebal event. In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations.

• Q124 showed solid top-line growth, impressive improvement in core margins
• We are not too concerned about moderating domestic hotel, air pricing
• After consensus EPS raised, TCOM a BUY below US$50 per ADS, in our view

• We have always been concerned about QuantumPharm’s business model. It is relatively difficult for a service provider like QuantumPharm to scale up revenue by just relying on charging service fees.
• For AI pharmaceutical companies, how to make money is a pain point for entire industry. Just focusing on preclinical stages would limit profitability.We haven’t seen any certainty of achieving breakeven.
• Increasing competition would bring more challenges for QuantumPharm. Post-investment valuation in 2021 was too expensive.If its future performance falls short of expectations, then sooner or later the valuation will collapse. 

• CSI announced the changes for the June rebalance after market close on 31 May and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 14 June.
• There are 5 adds/deletes – we correctly forecasted 3 adds and all 5 deletes. Passives need to trade 0.5-3x ADV on the adds and 0.5-2.1x ADV on the deletes.
• With the index not very widely forecasted, the adds could outperform the deletes over the next week in a repeat of the performance at the December rebalance.

• There are 3 changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 9 changes for the STAR100 Index. Implementation will take place at the close on 14 June.
• United Nova Technology (688469 CH) and Biwin Storage Technology (688525 CH) were not added at the March rebalance since they were consistently loss-making. But they have been added this time.
• United Nova Technology (688469 CH) had been trading poorly and then the stock dropped further after non-inclusion in March. That could change now with inclusion confirmed.

• There are 5 changes for the SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 14 June. There is over 1x ADV to trade on most stocks.
• The index committee has focused on sector balance with higher ranked stocks from the Financials sector ignored and lower ranked stocks from other sectors included.
• The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last 6 months and positioning (especially on the surprises) could lead to further upside for a long/short trade.

• The June 2024 index review results for China’s CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices were announced after market close on Friday 31st May 2024.
• There will be 12 changes in CSI 300 and 50 changes in CSI 500 which could collectively cause one-way index flows of ~US$3.7bn during the June 2024 index rebal event.
• Compared to Quiddity’s final expectations, 114 out of the 124 index changes (both ways) were correct translating to a hit rate of 92%. 

• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), Ansarada Group Ltd (AND AU), Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK). 
• Lowest spreads: Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP), Mma Offshore (MRM AU), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP), Alumina Ltd (AWC AU). 

• There are 4 changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index that will be implemented at the close on 14 June.
• Biwin Storage Technology Lt (688525 CH) and Beijing Yandong Microelectroni (688172 CH) are also inclusions to other indices too and the multiple flows will increase the impact on the stocks.
• The adds have underperformed the deletes. If things go the way of the December rebalance, a long adds/ short deletes trade could do well from now to implementation.

• There are 12 changes for the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) and 50 changes for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index (SH000905 INDEX) in June. Most changes were expected.
• There are a lot of stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade. The round-trip trade in June is estimated to be US$5bn.
• The adds have outperformed the deletes for both indices but the return profile of a long adds/ short deletes trade for the CSI500 Index is a lot smoother.

• Several US customs brokers have been suspended under new, tighter rules
• The new rules could make ‘de minimis’ imports slightly more difficult
• Whether it lists in London or NYC, additional rule changes could threaten SHEIN

• It is said that Fosun Pharma plans to privatize Henlius. There’re doubts about how to solve the debt problem/cash flow pressure of Fosun Pharma. A third party could be involved.
• Shareholders may not be willing to accept an Offer Price that is significantly below IPO price. It’s also possible that shareholders vote against the privatization. So, there are many uncertainties.
• Deal talks are still ongoing. It’s difficult to see clearly what’s happening under the table. Valuation logic of Fosun Pharma should be more like PE/VC firms not traditional pharmaceutical company.

• The changes to the CSI All Share Investment Banking & Brokerage Index were announced after market close on 31 May and will be implemented at the close on 14 June.
• Guosen Securities (002736 CH) will be added to the index while Northeast Securities (000686 CH) will be deleted from the index.
• There is a lot of flow and impact for both stocks and the stocks could outperform/underperform their peers over the next couple of weeks.

• The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
• Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 5.7bn of A-shares on lower gross volumes. NORTHBOUND bought Zijin, Yangtze Power, and renewables and sold SOEs.
• Ongoing questions as to whether the NORTHBOUND volumes to the buy side are all foreigners. Some suspect there is national team buying mixed in, as was expected from earlier announcements.

• SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer for HK$29.7bn on small two-way volumes. Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) dropped to #4 this week but SOE buying dominated.
• It is not clear how much of this is H/A discounts, expected dividend tax removal, and the KPIs for SOE CEOs to raise prices and payout ratios, but it continues.
• Valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows – national team and otherwise.

• ZX (9890 HK) will replace Fenbi Ltd (2469 HK) in the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) at the close on 14 June.
• There will be over 6 days of ADV to sell in Fenbi Ltd (2469 HK) and we estimate over 2 days of ADV to buy in ZX (9890 HK). 
• There are other ETFs that track very similar indices and there could be a lot more to trade in the stocks at the close on 14 June.

• The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
• SOUTHBOUND’s renewed buy streak continued this past week; every day net positive. Strong net buying. NORTHBOUND saw net selling. Gross volumes on both were light.
• AH Premia rebounded off multi-year lows, on average, this past week as Hang Seng/other HK indices fell and A-shares did not do much. Liquid Hs underperformed As by 2%.

• On the 9th May, Shandong Xinjufeng (301296 CH) (XJF) made a pre-conditional voluntary general Offer at $2.65/share (best & final), contingent on a 50% acceptance. Final/special dividends to be added.
• GAPack(468 HK) has made it clear that XJF is a competitor of GAPack. And Mengniu (2319 HK) may review its relationship if pre-cons are satisfied/waived; or the Offer gets up.
• XJF has announced the necessary applications have been sent to NDRC, MoC, and SAMR; and it prepping for a shareholder meeting to approve the Offer. 

• Bloks Group (1850960D CH) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Goldman Sachs, and Huatai International.
• Bloks Groups (Bloks) operates in the toy segment where it primarily assembles character toys. Its portfolio contains both self-developed and renowned licensed intellectual property (IPs).
• According to F&S, Bloks was China’s largest player in the assembly character toy segment with an approximate gross merchandise value (GMV) of RMB1.8bn in 2023.

• The majority of its revenue comes from selling float glass, which is used in buildings and construction. 
• The Chinese government has started home ownership relaxation that will reinvigorate the real estate market. 
• It is still trading at 67% lower to 3 years ago. 

• After CaiNiao halted IPO in late March, company reported lower Q4 margins
• What drove Q4 margin deterioration, retention payments or weaker X-border?
• With IPO off the table, supporting AliExpress becomes CaiNiao’s main role

• PDD Holdings Inc., an innovative online retail company based in China, seems to show a strong future trajectory based on its first quarter 2024 earnings conference call.
• The company surpassed its year-on-year growth with total revenue reaching RMB 86.8 billion, marking a 131% increase.
• This impressive growth serves as a testament to PDD Holdings’s efforts to deepen its access and widely influence the consumer market.

• Alibaba Health Information Tec (241 HK) operates an online platform for healthcare services and products.  Post COVID the company has maintained and grown it the online healthcare market.
  
• The company which is 53%-owned by Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) , recently reported results for 2023 which beat analyst estimates, recording a 65% increase in net profit.
• The company recently bought AJK Technology from Taobao which gives Ali Health  operational rights for advertising of online healthcare merchants on Tmall (Alimama).

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess China Vanke’s ESG as “Adequate”. The company has “Adequate” scores for all three pillars. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.

• Jiangxi Rimag Group, a China-based medical imaging center operator and provider of Rimag cloud services, set terms for an IPO and plans to raise ~HK$280M (~$36M) in Hong Kong.
• The IPO is expected to be between HK$14.60 and HK$16.80. At the midpoint of the range, Jiangxi Rimag will have a market value of ~HK$5.6B based on 356.3M outstanding shares.
• CITIC Securities is leading the offering. CMB International and Huatai International act as joint global coordinators, joint bookrunners and joint lead managers.

• Legend Holdings Corp H (3396 HK) owns 31% of Lenovo (992 HK) , the number one global PC maker
• Lenovo is a leader selling AI enabled PC’s globally.  Its server business is growing rapidly through strong demand for generative AI.  Legend is the leading AI seed investor in China.
• Technical pattern strong for Lenovo reaching a 9 year high.  Legend showing increasing momentum from an historic trough valuation level

• A high disease burden, high demand for chronic treatment, and an ageing population makes China an excellent opportunity for an established pharma company.
• A transition period following the inclusion of four large drugs in the NDRL creates an opportunity following a big de-rating.
• With 1/3 of the market cap in cash, a healthy payout ratio, and a FPE of under 8, CMS is one of the bargain beneficiaries in the Chinese healthcare space.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Shui On Land

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Fosun International
• Lenovo
• Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust
• NTPC Ltd
• Rakuten

• Chinese cement play Asia Cement China (743 HK) (ACC) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
• Asia Cement (1102 TT) has been ACC’s majority shareholder since its 2008 IPO. Asia Cement currently holds 73.07%. 
• Shares gained ~50% this week. On serious volume. With net cash of US$1.03bn vs. a market cap of US$66mn, a privatisation should command a punchy premium to the last close.

• Asia Cement China (743 HK) entered a trading halt based on the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Bloomberg reports that Asia Cement (1102 TT) is considering a buyout. 
• Privatisation interest is unsurprising, as ACC’s EV has been negative since 6 July 2022 due to headwinds from the weak Chinese property sector and uncertainty about cash use.
• An offer price of HK$5.18 would imply a zero EV. However, due to the difficult trading conditions, we think an offer would be around HK$4.00 per share.

• China announced game approval for the May batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
• The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening, though the number of approvals appears to be slower than March.
• None of the listed companies that we followed received approval for mobile games.

• The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
• Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
• The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include: J&T Global Express (1519 HK), Melco International Development (200 HK), Techtronic Industries (669 HK), Gushengtang (2273 HK), and United Energy (467 HK).

• Chinese outbound travel demand continued its gradual recovery in April 
• Moderating domestic demand? It’s not new, and outbound matters more 
• On a pullback to below US$50, we would again BUY Trip.com’s ADRs

• Quantgroup Technology (1467534D CH) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and CMB International.
• Quantgroup Technology is a digitalization solutions provider in China. Its digitalization solutions primarily include digitalized marketing, including precision marketing for financial institutions and local merchants, and goods transaction facilitation.
• The apps that Quantgroup operates can be largely categorized into two Quant-enabled proprietary apps, namely Yangxiaomie and Consumption Guide. 

• QuantumPharm (QUP HK) (Xtalpi) is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• QuantumPharm is a R&D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&D solutions.
• In our previous note we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we discuss QuantumPharm’s PHIP updates.

• MOKINGRAN’s revenue fluctuated in the past three years. Profit margin was much lower than that of peers/industry average, which may not necessarily have big improvement even with upward gold price.
• MOKINGRAN once applied for IPO in A-share but failed. The concerns of SZSE included “unusual” gold trade-in business, large inventory balance and the risk of “false increase” in profits/revenues.
• The gold boom should not mask the risks of MOKINGRAN. Even if MOKINGRAN successfully goes public, it still faces many challenges. Valuation of MOKINGRAN should be lower than peers. 

• Disputable Phase III result of Akeso’s (9926 HK) flagship pipeline Ivonescimab (AK112) caused Akeso’s share price to drop 28% in three days, reaching the bottom of a year-long trading range;
• The fundamental difference of opinions is around Ivonescimab’s global prospects against (1) Merck’s Keytruda, (2) J&J’s Rybrevant, (3) Kelun’s SKB264 and domestic prospect against (4) Innovent’s IBI305;
• Some answers are clear while others are now. What can provide answers are (1) SKB264‘s Phase III data, and to a lesser degree (2) AK112’s head-to-head trial against Keytruda.

• Considering the dominant position of medical imaging centers in public hospitals and challenges from other players, future development space of Rimag would be squeezed,and even will soon encounter growth bottlenecks.
• Although Rimag turned losses into profits, we still have doubts about its future profitability due to increasing costs and potential price decline.This business may fail to bring investors decent profits.
• Rimag’s post-investment valuation after last round financing isn’t cheap.Given the uncertainty of future revenue growth prospects and the real market space, P/S of below 3 is a more comfortable range.

• The imagination space and good stories for Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990 HK) at this stage mainly come from SKB264. The market has higher expectations for SKB264’s clinical data on NSCLC/TNBC. 
• The better the clinical results of SKB264 +PD1/L1, the greater the negative impact on AK112’s future expectations/market space in NSCLC. ADC +PD-1 seems more “convincing” than the logic of BsAb.
• This July, restricted shares of major shareholders will be lifted, which may lead to big share price fluctuation if they reduce their shareholdings. Investors need not rush to be long.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Vanke

• Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) and JD.com (9618 HK) both announced the issuance of convertible debt last week (Alibaba on May 23 and JD.com on May 21). 
• Both have mentioned that the reasons for the issuance are the low funding cost (0.25% coupon for JD.com and 0.5% for Alibaba) and to fund their current share repurchase program. 
• I think the convertible debt structures makes sense and it is beneficial for both companies to buy back as much as possible at the current share price.

• After entering a trading halt on the 16th May pursuant to the Takeover’s Code, property manager Huafa Property Services (982 HK) has now announced a privatisation by way of a Scheme. 
• The cancellation price of A$0.29/share is a 30.63% to last close, a 70.59% premium over the 30-day average close, and a life-time high price. The price is final.
• The Offeror, Zhuhai Huafa, a state-owned enterprise wholly-owned by Zhuhai SASAC, plus concert parties hold 42.63% of shares out. Clean deal.

• In January this year, Argyle Street, a (now) 8% shareholder of China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) (CMCDI), a closed-end investment company, proposed a solution to boost shareholder value.
• Two months later, Rydal Value Fund (stake unknown) also proposed a means to boosting shareholder value along similar lines.
• CMCDI is currently trading at a ~63% discount to NAV. But it is up 78% since Argyle’s initial proposal, and recently touched a six-year high. Argyle is still buying.

• Huafa Property Services Group (982 HK) announced a privatisation offer from Huafa Industrial Co., Ltd. Zhuhai (600325 CH) at HK$0.29 per share, a 30.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
• Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection) and a headcount test. No shareholder holds a blocking stake.
• The offer, which has been declared final, is attractive compared to historical share prices and peer multiples. This is a done deal, with payment likely in November.  

• Baidu’s revenue growth for the first quarter exceeded expectations, with a year-over-year increase of 4%, reaching RMB 23.8 billion.
• Additionally, Baidu’s continued efforts in Gen AI path have resulted in a 12% year-over-year acceleration in the revenue growth from Baidu AI Cloud, which also delivered an operating profit on a non-GAAP basis.
• These positive results signify the company’s successful transition from an internet-centric business to an AI-first business.

• JD.com, a China-based multinational technology conglomerate, has announced its first-quarter results for 2024 in an earnings call and reported robust profit and revenue growth, along with an encouragingly high Net Promoter Score (NPS).
• The revenue growth was accelerated by strong execution amidst evolving industry dynamics, improved user experience, price competitiveness, and platform ecosystems.
• Importantly, the general merchandise and supermarket category recorded a notable jump in terms of gross merchandise value (GMV) and revenue growth.

• iQIYI, an innovative market-leading online entertainment service provider in China, delivered robust first-quarter 2024 results, achieving numerous record highs, such as non-GAAP operating income and its corresponding margin.
• CEO, Mr. Yu Gong, shared that the expanding margin could be attributed to the high-quality growth of the company.
• The Membership Services business continued its growth trajectory with monthly ARM observed an all-time high.

• We compare Lalatech’s scale, P&L, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow to peers
• On several measures, Lalatech is comparable to Full Truck Alliance, SF-Intra
• Small, unprofitable GOGOX not an appropriate comp for Lalatech, in our view

• We saw the collapse of Akeso’s share price after the Company released the clinical data of AK112 on ASCO. Judging from the market reaction, there are indeed“something unsatisfactory” about AK112.
• Akeso’s high valuation mainly comes from the expectation that it would be a player that can compete on international stage. But investors’ confidence in AK112’s future commercialization has been shaken.
• We advise investors to remain patient and “let the bullets fly”. It’s not yet time for the final result.But, if you want to bet, you need to pay the price.

• SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer for HK$18.6bn on strong two-way volumes. The top three net buys of the week were SOE banks. Some may be Central Huijin.
• Some of this may be driven by the dividend w/h tax cancellation on H divs and by significant H-share discounts, but high-div CNOOC was the biggest net sell.
• No end to the inflows, and HK valuations are not at a place where they would hamper continued flows. Alibaba making HK a Primary will spur more inflows over time.

• The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
• SOUTHBOUND’s buy streak continued this past week; every day was net positive. NORTHBOUND was net positive too. It is not clear how much is National Team buying. Much may be.
• AH Premia rebounded off multi-year lows, on average, this past week as Hang Seng and other HK indices fell sharply and A-shares did not fall as much. 

• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Ansarada Group Ltd (AND AU), Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK). 
• Lowest spreads: Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), Mma Offshore (MRM AU), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP), Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), Boral Ltd (BLD AU).

• Based on the close of 24 May, there could be three changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK)/ CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK) in June.
• COSCO SHIPPING (601919 CH), CRRC (601766 CH) and China National NuclearPower (601985 CH) could replace LONGi GreenEnergy (601012 CH), CSC Financial (601066 CH) and China Tourism Group DutyFree (601888 CH). 
• There are a couple of stocks that are close adds and could become adds if they outperform higher ranked stocks in trading today.

• With a day to go in the review period, there could be 2 changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) in June.
• There should be more than 1x ADV to buy on one of the adds while there will be nearly 5x ADV to sell on one of the deletes.
• There will be positioning in all the potential changes but there appears to be higher interest in one of the potential adds and one of the potential deletes.

• There are many rumors about Henlius’s trading halt, but Fosun Pharma had applied for the resumption of trading in H Shares, which makes us confused whether this is really privatization.
• Henlius is in “an awkward position” in capital market. Fosun is to blame for Henlius’s low valuation. The high debt problem makes the profits generated from drug sales meaningless.
• If Henlius cannot break away from the system controlled by Fosun, the complexity of corporate governance brought about by the relationship between Henlius and Fosun would inevitably affect investment judgment.

• The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
• Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 0.8bn of A-shares on lower gross volumes. NORTHBOUND bought CATL, China Yangtze Power, and Luxshare. AH Premia bounced, but net volumes are suspect.
• There is some question as to whether the NORTHBOUND volumes to the buy side are all foreigners. Some suspect there is national team buying mixed in, as was expected.

• The NHSA issued a Notice on “improving the quality and expanding the scope of VBP”. The trend of full coverage of VBP of conventional drugs/consumables is determined.TCM is under pressure.
• We analyzed the potential demand growth rate of the glove industry, which is already better than most cyclical stocks. Therefore, we see no need to remain pessimistic about this industry.
• Holding platform companies have valuation discounts.HK$50-60 billion is reasonable market value for China Resources Pharmaceutical.Better to go long when share price is below HK$5 and then hold to receive dividends.

• Since late 2020, Search’s share of digital advertising revenue has stabilised at around 8-10%, seemingly retaining its core advertising customers and industries.
• Baidu management expects AI Cloud to maintain strong revenue growth momentum in the upcoming quarters.
• Baidu trades on a 3.6x NTM EV/EBITDA multiple, well below one standard deviation lower than its 5-year historical average trading range and the lowest it has ever been.

• In 1Q24, Revenues of Xpeng, Tongcheng, Kanzhun, and Gaotu grew by 62% YoY, 50%, YoY, 43% YoY and 34% YoY.
• KE’s revenue decreased by 20% YoY in 1Q24 due to the weak property market.
• Bilibili’s value added services revenue grew by 17% YoY and advertising revenue grew by 31% YoY.