Financials

• Jay Lee’s clean Supreme Court win may cool Samsung’s governance trade near term. With legal risks gone, there’s less urgency to push structural changes or shuffle shares now.
• Samsung C&T, a hotspot for governance spec flows, may see bids fade as urgency for structural shifts drops; longs on revamp bets might consider fading or shorting amid lingering risks.
• Samsung Life gets relief as forced Elec share sales drop, supporting its stock. Samsung Elec stays neutral. Trade idea: Samsung Life long, Samsung C&T short on cooled governance hopes.

• Evolving Treasury Landscape: Corporate treasuries face challenges from macroeconomic shifts, including high interest rate volatility, significant monetary expansion leading to inflation, and increasing geopolitical risks impacting cash flows and profitability.
• Bitcoin as a Strategic Asset: Bitcoin has emerged as an alternative asset for these challenges, offering a scarce and increasingly institutionally viable asset for potential long-term value preservation and portfolio diversification, as demonstrated by MicroStrategy’s pioneering strategy.
• The “Financial Engineering” Playbook: MicroStrategy’s approach goes beyond simple asset allocation, employing sophisticated financial engineering (e.g., convertible notes, equity issuances) to create value for shareholders by continuously acquiring more Bitcoin per share. 

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

• ICICI Prudential AMC (570643Z IN) is the largest AMC in India by active mutual fund QAAUM with 13.3% market share.
• Company is growing at more than 30% CAGR in last 3 years and having focus on B30 Cities and emerging markets to drive growth.
• Since company is cash rich with no borrowings, they are coming up with 100% OFS.

• Back on the 7th May, Geely Auto (175 HK), China’s second-largest carmaker, made a US$25.66/ADS non-binding proposal for 62.8%-held ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer
• Yesterday, Geely tweaked and firmed terms at US$26.87/ADS, a 4.7% bump to the original NBIO, and ~3.4% below ZEEKR’s last close.  ZEEKR promptly gained 2.4% on the news.
• ZEEKR shareholders also have the option to receive Geely scrip. Given Geely’s and Li Shufu’s (10.61%) holdings – neither are required to abstain on voting – this Offer is done. 

• State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) plans to raise around US$3bn via a QIP. The deal is very well flagged and we wrote on it last week.
• Although the stock has been running up a bit going into the deal and the previous deal didn’t do well.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Upper House elections are drawing increased scrutiny due to heightened focus on fiscal finances.
• We examine how risk is being priced across Japanese markets and in particular in Nikkei225 options.
• Volatility risk appears asymmetric, and we outline ways to mitigate or potentially profit from it.

• Late last month, shares in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), XSpring Capital (XPG TB), BEC World Public (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB) all went limit down. Twice. 
• As discussed in Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call, Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana had pledged his shares in all four companies, reportedly leading to margin calls. 
• Yesterday, the SET released an updated list of securities pledged in margin accounts. Notably, pledged shares in KTC has fallen to 3.8% of shares outstanding from 16.3% the previous month. 

• HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has been rallying strongly since early January 2025, a rally we predicted back then. After 2 weeks down, the stock this week is rising.
• However, according to our model the current uptrend pattern does not lead to long-lasting rallies, but rather to new, short-term corrections.
• The time horizon for this rally is 1-2 weeks, when this trend pattern is encountered, so we could expect the stock to rally briefly and then pull back again.

• Market assigns low odds to the current terms, with most of the expected value tied to deal failure or a materially higher exchange ratio.
• BMPS now holds effective control, but the –3.5% spread shows investors doubt the deal will close as is without further sweetening.
• No arbitrage setup is attractive, as convergence to the implied offer still implies a locked-in loss for Mediobanca holders at current market prices.

• ICICI Prudential AMC (570643Z IN) (IPru AMC) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by a consortium of banks.
• IPru AMC is an asset management company involved in managing mutual funds, providing portfolio management services, managing alternative investment funds, and providing advisory services to offshore clients.
• The IPO is entirely an offer for sale by one of the promoters, Prudential Corporation Holdings Limited. 

• In 1H FY11/25, revenue was JPY16.4bn (-4.1% YoY), with operating profit at JPY1.5bn (-45.0% YoY).
• Full-year forecasts revised downward: revenue JPY32.6bn, operating profit JPY2.1bn, net income JPY1.3bn, EPS JPY58.20.
• Dividend forecast remains unchanged at JPY94 per share, despite downward revision of full-year net income forecast.

• The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) bounced this week, after 2 weeks down, after previously reaching a peak at 40852, the area above 41k has been a strong barrier since 2024.
• Our model says the current Nikkei 225 trend could rise to 41k, or even above 41k.
• The index’s latest 2-week pullback was shallow and did not even reach our model’s Q2 support level, this is a bullish behavior (buy the dip).

• India’s largest HF company with a stable loan book, supported by LIC’s parentage and a focus on salaried home loans, shows its fundamental strength.  
• The company demonstrates robust operational performance, marked by a decade-high 1.83% Return on Assets (RoA) and a competitive 16% Return on Equity (ROE).  
• It targets future growth by efficiently managing borrowing costs and strategically diversifying into higher-margin segments like project finance and LAP/LRD.

• The Hong Kong office market is now facing multiple headwinds including an oversupply, persistently weak demand and slowdown in Chinese corporates expansion
• Accordingly, the availability rate In Hong Kong office rose to record high, reaching 19.3% as of Q2 2025, according to Cushman.  Vacancy rate in Central is at 13%
• We are bearish on Champion REIT, given its direct exposure to HK Grade A office market

• Accelerant Holdings is offering 28.947mm shares at $18.00-$20.00 equating to a market cap of $4.0b-$4.4b and is scheduled to debut on July 24th.
• As of June 30, 2025 they have 248 Members as compared to 186 Members as of June 30, 2024 (and 232 Members as of March 31, 2025).
• Given the positive tailwind from recent insurance-related IPOs as well as the strong metrics released in the company’s “flash numbers”, we believe this company could potentially be “well-received”. 

• During the first quarter of 2025, Samara Asset Group experienced a decline in net asset value, driven largely by volatility in its principal assets.
• As of March 31, gross asset value stood at approximately 255.3 million euros, while net asset value settled at around 210.9 million euros.
• This marks a reduction from year-end levels of 297.4 million euros for gross assets and 245.2 million euros for net assets.

• Property developer Guangdong – Hong Kong Greater Bay Area Holdings (1396 HK) (GHKGBA) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
• GHKGBA, previously known as Hydoo, was subject to an unconditional MGO in 2019 after China Guangdong-Hong Kong Greater Bay Area (CGHKGBA) acquired a 51.56%.  CGHKGBA currently holds a 50.94% stake
• At a guess, CGHKGBA will seek to take GHKGBA private by way of a Scheme. The rub/pushback? GHKGBA’s share price is up 2,383% YTD. And trailing P/B is ~7x. 

• Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) disclosed a non-binding proposal from Ki Corporation and Public Storage (PSA US) at A$1.65 per unit, a 14.7% premium to its previously rejected offer.
• The Board will grant six weeks of due diligence. While below NTA (implies P/NTA of 0.95x), the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges.   
• The consortium will likely need to switch to a takeover offer as National Storage REIT (NSR AU), which holds effectively a blocking stake, is unlikely to vote in favour. 

• Volume trends and sub-sector splits highlight where interest is most concentrated.
• We revisit top names that appeared prominently in last week’s active lists
• Trading patterns suggest a mix of positioning motives across Financial names.

• BSE’s Option Premium ADTO in July MTD is down 25% MoM to INR 105bn amid lower market volatility and regulatory overhang from SEBI’s ban on Jane Street.
• This weakness has triggered another 6–8% volume cut assumption in the market, on top of the 4–5% volume cut in June 2025.
• BSE will face pressure in the near-term due to lower volume and valuation pressure, but long-term optimism tied to earnings if volumes normalize and reforms push investors toward cash equities.

• Discussion covers topics including dollar signals, $CNY fixes, tariffs, and observations on Swiss and sterling
• Dollar remains bearish despite some systematic signals turning less bearish or even bullish
• Client sentiment may be shifting tactically towards throwing in the towel on the bearish dollar trend due to technical patterns, but long-term view remains unchanged

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)‘s 1H25 positive profit alert is encouraging, with 1H25 results growing by 55-78% YoY.  
• YTD, CICC has a 59.5% share of the HK IPO market. The solid H-share IPO pipeline of A-share companies is beneficial, as this is its major area of strength.
• Market consensus has underestimated its FY25 earnings, inflating its PER multiples. The current 51% discount of its H-share to A-share is just too steep (average 37.7%).

• BPER acquired 58.35% of Sondrio with an enhanced bid, but low take-up signals shareholder dissatisfaction and opens room for further action.
• Revised terms imply a 3.9% gross spread, offering a compelling short-term arbitrage play with estimated 12.4% annualized return.
• A potential reopening or share accumulation remains likely, with Unipol’s dual role adding strategic weight and optionality to the situation.

• We think the student housing sector / PBSA is interesting– the sector is driven by strong drivers including steady university enrolment, rising international student mobility, as well as urbanization
• The sector is further characterized by the huge demand/supply imbalance – supply has high entry barriers including high construction costs, inflationary pressures, and complex planning issues
• We like XIOR, which is a leading student housing company focused in Europe, on the back of its high asset quality, strategic growth as well as pricing power

• NTT DC REIT’s IPO, scheduled for July 14, has a market capitalisation of US$1.03 billion, featuring six data centres.
• NTT DC REIT projects a 7.5% annualised distribution yield for 9M FY26, surpassing other Data Centre S-REITs.
• KDC’s AUM is S$4.9 billion, with 24 data centres; Digital Core REIT manages US$1.7 billion in assets.

• Kasumigaseki Hotel REIT (401A JP)  is looking to raise up to US$195m in its upcoming Japan IPO.
• It is a REIT with hotel assets, sponsored by Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) . 
• In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

• NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP) is the exclusive S-REIT vehicle sponsored by NTT Group. It has raised US$773 million at the offer price of US$1.00 per unit.   
• I discussed the listing in NTT DC REIT IPO: The Investment Case and NTT DC REIT IPO: Valuation Insights. 
• NTT DC REIT has the third-highest international oversubscription rates among REIT SGX listings since 2020. The IPO price is attractive in comparison to peers’ multiples and yields.

• The bill’s side notes clearly state that the mandatory cancellation rule applies retroactively to existing treasury shares without any exemptions.
• If this passes the Assembly as-is, it’ll trigger a historic forced cancellation of treasury stock across ~1,660 companies—about three-quarters of the K-equities market.
• Watch if this punchy bill clears committee and floor without cuts. Dems plan to fast-track it Sept 1, holding the majority to push it solo, aiming for year-end rollout.

• Two months ago, Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) announced, and subsequently rejected, a A$1.47/share NBIO, by way of a Scheme, from Nathan Kirsh’s Ki Corporation and Public Storage (PSA US)
• The Kirsh-led consortium has now bumped non-binding terms 14.7% to A$1.65/share, and has been granted six weeks of due diligence.  
• Nathan Kirsh directly/indirectly holds a 59.47% stake in ASK. Abacus has never closed above A$1.60/share. 

• NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP), a data center REIT, raised around US$772m in its Singapore IPO.
• The IPO portfolio comprises six mainly freehold data centres in the U.S., Austria and Singapore with an aggregate appraised valuation of US$1.6bn
• We have looked at the past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

• National Securities Depository Limited/NSDL (NSDL IN) is the largest depository in India. It is seeking to raise US$400 million.
• In NSDL IPO: The Bull Case, I highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, I outline the bear case.
• The bear case rests on the core business’s lower growth and margins compared to its key peer and the banking services’ weak performance.

• A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 14 – July 19.
• The most noticeable highlights are: all US markets and stocks we cover sold off last week, apart from Amazon.com (AMZN US) , Alphabet (GOOG US) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) 
• In Asia, BYD (1211 HK) is very oversold, and Fast Retailing (9983 JP) is also oversold. Gold (GOLD COMDTY) and Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) start to be overbought.

• Wrap of events affecting the market on Friday night and the weekend and a preview of the week ahead

• Using SOTP is likely the best way to value COIN going forward as its subscription and services revenue is now more substantial and Circle has just gone public.
• Non-Transaction revenue is being valued at a much higher multiple than transaction revenue. SOTP valuation indicates limited near-term upside from COIN’s current market capitalization.
• Circle’s impact on Coinbase is now twofold: 1) driving its revenue mix shift toward non-transaction revenue; 2) acting as a key benchmark for its non-transaction revenue valuation.

• Sentiment improved modestly, though breadth remains well below recent highs in a subdued price action.
• Option activity climbed steadily, with strong Friday Call demand pushing the Put/Call ratio to lower bound.
• Financials stood out across price action, volatility, and options activity.

• This “rescue package” announcement late last month came as no surprise, as the alternative situation (liquidation/bankruptcy) for New World Development (17 HK), and the ensuing optics were not great.
• Media reports are now coming in that NWD is reportedly seeking to sell – or accelerate the sale – of its real estate projects in China. 
• That makes sense. The refinancing afforded NWD some breathing space. However, to strengthen/bolster its balance sheet, NWD needs to offload assets. Yet pinning down a “fair” valuation will take time. 

• Smartworks, India’s largest managed campus operator, is launching a INR 582.56 crore IPO, combining fresh issue and OFS to fund expansion and reduce debt. 
• Smartworks shows strong growth in operational metrics and high occupancy underline rising demand, but consistent losses, high debt, and client concentration remain key concerns. 
• While the industry outlook is robust, the success depends on Smartworks achieving profitability, managing risk, and sustaining client retention in a competitive market.

• Banco Santander’s third-quarter financial results for 2023 demonstrate a mixed performance, albeit with solid progress in executing its long-term strategy.
• The company recorded a quarterly profit of EUR 3.3 billion, marking a 12% year-over-year increase, driven by a customer base that has expanded to 171 million.
• For the first nine months of the year, the bank achieved a record profit of EUR 9.3 billion, up 14%.

• Markel Group’s recent financial performance presents a nuanced picture of its strategic initiatives and operational dynamics.
• On the positive side, the company has demonstrated resilience in its various business segments, showing strong potential for sustainable growth.
• Markel’s comprehensive approach to capital allocation has been characterized by strategic investments and share repurchase activities, which are expected to yield favorable returns over the long term.

• Cavendish reported a return to profitability in the year to March 2025.
• Revenue was up 3% on a comparable basis – against a still tricky background for UK smaller companies – and adjusted pre-tax profit was £3.7m against a loss of £1.8m in the year to March 2024.
• The result was an indication of the strength of the diversified revenue stream – with both private and public divisions healthily profitable – and a strong control on costs, which fell on a like-for-like basis.

• UBS Group AG reported strong financial performance for the first quarter of 2025 amid challenging market conditions, marked by fluctuating investor sentiment and significant volatility.
• The company’s diversified global franchise and disciplined cost management strategies have played a crucial role in navigating these challenging conditions.
• UBS achieved a net profit of $1.7 billion and an underlying return on common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital of 11.3%, driven by positive operating leverage in its core divisions.

• The Hartford Financial Services Group reported a strong start to 2025, characterized by solid financial performance despite facing significant challenges such as the January California wildfires.
• The company demonstrated robust growth across its business segments, highlighting its effective risk management and strong underwriting capabilities.
• However, there are also areas that present ongoing challenges and risks that investors should be aware of.

• The Hanover Insurance Group reported its first-quarter performance, reflecting both positive strategic implementations and ongoing challenges.
• Key takeaways from the results indicate a strong start to the year, with an operating return on equity reaching 17.2%, despite the impacts of significant catastrophe events like Californian wildfires and severe convective storms.
• The company’s response to these losses underscores effectiveness in catastrophe mitigation strategies.

• Manulife Financial recently released its first quarter 2025 results, showcasing both positive and challenging aspects of its performance.
• The company maintained strong growth momentum from 2024, particularly in its Asia and Global Wealth and Asset Management (WAM) businesses.
• Asia’s Annualized Premium Equivalent (APE) sales surged 50%, driven by robust demand in Hong Kong, Japan, Mainland China, and Singapore.

• Globe Life’s first-quarter 2025 financial results present a mixed bag of outcomes, reflecting the intricate dynamics of the insurance sector amidst broader economic uncertainties.
• The company reported a net income of $255 million or $3.01 per share, up from $254 million or $2.67 per share in the same quarter last year.
• The net operating income was slightly higher than internal projections at $259 million or $3.07 per share, representing a 10% increase year-over-year.

• Kakao Corp (035720 KS) is looking to raise US$316m from a clean-up sale in SK Square (402340 KS) .
• The deal is a small one, representing 5.4 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 1.7% of total shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• As per news reports and company filings, State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) could soon look to raise around US$3bn (INR250bn) via a QIP.
• SBI raised around US$2.3bn (INR150bn) in 2017, but the deal didn’t end up doing well.
• In this note, we will talk about the possible fund raising and other deal dynamics.

• U.S. Bancorp reported first-quarter 2025 earnings with earnings per share of $1.03 and a return on tangible common equity of 17.5%.
• The company demonstrated progress on its strategic priorities, achieving a year-over-year positive operating leverage of 270 basis points on an adjusted basis.
• This improvement was driven by disciplined expense management, momentum across fee businesses, and modest margin expansion.

• We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for mid and small-cap companies in the Philippines.
• We established metrics focusing on high ROCE, sustainable growth of 10-15% YoY, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation, essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities.
• Read our initiation on Asian Terminals Inc (ATI PM): Steady and Cheap Container Port Terminal Operator, and our recent update on DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM).

• The recent earnings call for Wells Fargo & Company presented a generally solid performance for the first quarter of 2025, reflecting progress against its strategic priorities amidst a challenging economic environment.
• With net income at $4.9 billion, or $1.39 per diluted common share, the company reported a 16% increase in earnings per share compared to the previous year.
• Despite a decline in revenue due to lower net interest income, Wells Fargo managed to grow fee-based revenue across various sectors, illustrating the benefit of its investment diversification strategy.

• American International Group (AIG) presented its first quarter of 2025 results, showcasing a mix of achievements and challenges that yield insights for potential investors.
• The company’s performance was framed by significant strategic moves, including the deconsolidation of Corebridge Financial in mid-2024, which has reorganized its financial statements to treat Corebridge’s historical results as discontinued operations.
• AIG reported an adjusted after-tax income of $702 million or $1.17 per diluted share for the period.

• Aflac Incorporated reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2025 with mixed outcomes across its Japan and U.S. operations.
• For the quarter, Aflac achieved net earnings per diluted share of $0.05, notably impacted by net investment losses.
• Conversely, its adjusted earnings per diluted share stood at $1.66, remaining consistent with the previous year.

• Cincinnati Financial Corporation’s first quarter of 2025 was marked by significant challenges and notable resilience in certain areas.
• Faced with widespread weather-related catastrophes, the company reported a net loss of $90 million, primarily driven by a substantial increase in catastrophe losses estimated at $356 million after taxes.
• Despite these setbacks, Cincinnati Financial saw growth in its property casualty premiums by 11%, demonstrating its ability to maintain momentum amidst adverse conditions.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Shui On Land, Vedanta Resources, JSW Steel, Nissan Motor
• UST yields declined yesterday (the first drop in a week), on the back of a solid auction of 10Y notes. The yield on the 2Y UST fell 5 bps to 3.84%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was down 7 bps at 4.33%. Equities rallied, led by gains in large tech stocks. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 6,263, while the Nasdaq climbed 0.9% to 20,611.
• US President Donald Trump has released more tariff-letter screenshots on Truth Social, outlining a 25% rate on the Philippines, 30% on Sri Lanka and 50% on Brazil, among others. In particular, the letter for Brazil highlighted the “witch hunt” on former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, as well as the country’s “insidious attacks on free elections and the fundamental free speech rights of Americans”, citing the Brazilian Supreme Court’s censorship orders on US social media platforms.

• Last week, CICC Hong Kong and SOE Jilin Financial Holding Group tabled a rescue offer for Jilin Bank (6122 HK), as discussed in Jilin Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson’s Choice
• This follows a similar bailout of Bank Of Jinzhou (416 HK) in early 2024, as detailed in Bank of Jinzhou (416 HK) To Be Taken Private.
• Tarring the sector with same brush is potentially oversimplifying the situation. But the issues faced by Jilin Bank and BoJ are unlikely to be isolated. Below I dig deeper.  

• As reported by Gaudenz Schneider , the 90-Day pause on country-specific reciprocal tariffs was set to expire on July 9, 2025 and Australia and its Minerals sector might suffer indirectly. 
• Australia has business with a number of Asian countries, especially China and Japan. Any shock to the growth of other economies in the region could affect the S&P/ASX 200 INDEX. 
• This insight will focus on the short-term tactical outlook and possible trend direction for the Australian index for the coming weeks. 

• The Arena REIT (ARF AU) vs. National Storage REIT (NSR AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• This relative value opportunity can be implemented as a long-short pair trade or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

Asian equities have outperformed the US and global markets this year and the manager of Henderson Far East Income (HFEL), Sat Duhra, expects this outperformance to continue, underpinned by a number of structural growth trends, such as the drive to enhance shareholder returns via increased dividend payments. Other supportive themes include financial inclusion and investment in technology and infrastructure. Since our last note, Duhra has continued his efforts to raise exposure to these structural growth opportunities, while still protecting income. These efforts, combined with an improvement in the performance of value stocks, have already improved performance in outright terms. The trust also looks set to deliver an 18th successive year of dividend growth in FY25 (ending 31 August 2025) (Exhibit 1). Duhra believes the trust is well positioned to grasp further opportunities to invest in structural growth, at attractive valuations, as they arise, and to reap the performance benefit of such exposure, including rising dividend payouts, over the remainder of 2025 and well beyond.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Nissan Motor, Continuum Green
• UST yields rose slightly yesterday, with yields up for a fifth straight day. There were no apparent catalysts, albeit the move was in line with a broader sell-off in European and Japanese government bonds.
• The yield on the 2Y UST was unchanged at 3.89%, while that on the 10Y UST advanced 2 bps to 4.40%. Equities were little changed near all-time highs, amid renewed tariff concerns. US President Donald Trump has told reporters at a White House meeting that he plans to announce a 50% tariff on copper imports.

• Spectral AI is developing an AI-guided predictive medical device that employs multispectral imaging (MSI) to estimate a wound’s capacity to heal.
• The company is pursuing indications in burn and diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) with the former receiving support from BARDA & other government agencies.
• Spectral is distinguished by its combination of MSI and AI to improve diagnoses.

• Japanese banks have been in a relative sweetspot for a couple of years. Higher rates, higher inflation, more FX volatility, better earnings, stronger buybacks. Cross-holding sales up but not spectacular.
• The BOJ may raise rates but Trump Tariff retaliation/mitigation is a question. Elections the next two weeks and earnings the 2-3 weeks after that may keep things a question. 
• But buybacks should pick up. Lots announced in spring end at or before Q1 earnings. And I expect substantial new buybacks to be announced throughout the from Q1 results on.

• After OCBC bumped terms for Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) to $30.15/share via an Exit Offer, I wasn’t confident a 17.8% bump would dislodge Palliser. That appears the case.
• At today’s EGM, 63.49% of minority shareholders  – OCBC abstained – were in favour on the Offer, falling short of the 75% condition. There was no blocking % condition. 
• Shareholders voted for the resumption of shares via the issuance of shares (one-for-one bonus), satisfying the SGX free float requirement.  The SGX, and dissenters, will be happy with the outcome. 

• The Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) delisting resolution failed as it was not approved by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders.
• The resumption of trading resolutions to restore the 10% free float requirement was passed. Trading will resume once the 10% free float requirement is met. 
• Minorities have secured a pyrrhic victory as the OCBC (OCBC SP) offer was light, but there is no obvious catalyst to re-rate the shares. Deal break price around S$21.49.

• Context: The Bank of Korea will announce its rate decision on July 10, 2025. This Insight compares market and option-implied expectations with historical KOSPI 200 reactions.
• Highlights: While average market reactions to BoK moves are historically muted, options are pricing in elevated volatility. Two event-driven strategies are discussed.
• Why Read: This Insight offers actionable, volatility-focused options strategies grounded in empirical data and current pricing—timely for traders seeking to monetize elevated volatility ahead of central bank and geopolitical events.

• Market participants should look at a bigger picture view of positioning in US equities, rather than narrow metrics like IMM or market participants only
• European countries, as well as Canada and Australia, are large holders of US equities, with pension funds being major players
• Australian pension funds have over 800 billion in US equities, with a flow rate of 1.2% of GDP going into foreign equities, and have low FX hedge ratios which could be raised in the future

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• National Securities Depository Limited/NSDL (NSDL IN) is the largest depository in India. It is seeking to raise US$400 million.     
• The depository market in India is a duopoly with high barriers to entry as each of the current depositories is promoted by large institutions.
• The bull case rests on outperforming its key peer on several metrics, the core business’s solid performance, signs of margin recovery, cash generation, and no debt.  

• Industrivärden’s NAV reached SEK 165.6 billion in H1 2025, up 4%, while C shares delivered a flat return and now trade at a 9.7% discount to NAV—below historical levels.
• The portfolio is highly concentrated, with 91% of NAV in five stocks: Volvo, Sandvik, Handelsbanken, Essity, and SCA—making it easily replicable but sensitive to industrial sector cycles.
• Management costs remain ultra-low at 0.08% of AUM, while net debt is just 2% of the portfolio. Credit quality is strong (A+/Stable), and dividends from holdings totaled SEK 9.4 billion.

• In August 2024, Klaytn (backed by South Korea’s Kakao) and Finschia (developed by Japan’s LINE Tech Plus) merged to form the Kaia chain, a Layer 1 blockchain aimed at becoming Asia’s leading Web3 ecosystem.
• LINE, the leading messaging app in Japan, Thailand, and Taiwan, boasts approximately 200 million high-value monthly active users, with over 80% penetration in key markets, and is partnering with Kaia to deliver a rich Web3 experience on its platform.
• The key initiative of the Kaia-LINE NEXT partnership to onboard users from Web2 to Web3 is the Mini Dapp ecosystem, which mirrors the Telegram-TON partnership’s Game-Token-DeFi strategy, with the Kaia foundation driving developer engagement.

• Revenue increased by 14.6% YoY to JPY66.1bn, with operating profit rising 18.1% YoY to JPY17.6bn.
• The company revised its full-year forecast, lowering revenue by 3.9% but raising operating profit by 4.7%.
• Assets under management reached JPY2.67tn, exceeding fiscal year-end targets, driven by new asset management contracts.

• After a longer wait than planned, Chesnara has announced a large acquisition, HSBC Life (UK).
• At a cost of £260m, it is over 70% of Chesnara’s pre-announcement market capitalisation and will be funded by a mixture of equity, existing cash resources (primarily from the earlier Tier 2 bond issue) and drawing down from a newly increased revolving credit facility.
• The rights issue should complete by 23 July 2025, with deal completion in early 2026.