Most Read

We see 28 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

Nikkei 225 Proposal for Dealing With Sony’s (6758) Sony Finl Spinoff – A Non-Event but TOPIX Isn’t

A couple of years ago, Sony Corp (6758 JP) announced they would spin off Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) (called Sony Financial Group Inc). That spinoff is due in Sep-2025.
The extra capital required for a tech/industrial to hold the financial business is significant, but some of the other reasons Sony has offered are just management-speak hogwash.
The problem? It creates a new event in the Nikkei 225 paradigm for which there was no rule. Now the Nikkei has proposed a rule. It isn’t perfect.

[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Buyback Tender – Surprising Results and Implications

Today, Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced the results of its Buyback Tender Offer to repurchase up to 3,999,999 shares (35.8% of shares out ex-Treasury) at ¥5,000/share.
Murakami-San owned 42% of the voting rights at announcement, then bought more on the dip just below ¥5,000/share.
The Tender Offer Buyback was “successful” in that it bought back 3.3mm shares. But the result was FAR more interesting than I expected. Surprising Results with Surprising Implications

Doosan Corp (000150 KS): Global Index Inclusion & A Relative Value Trade

A doubling of the stock price over the last 3 months could lead to Doosan Corp (000150 KS) being included in a global index in August.
Doosan Corp (000150 KS) has outperformed its peers over the last few months and now trades at a huge valuation premium to its peer group.
The stock is 17% off its recent highs and that provides an opportunity for a relative value trade heading into the index inclusion event.

Netease Cloud Music (9899 HK): Stock Up; Short Interest Up; Global Index Inclusion

Cloud Village (9899 HK)‘s stock price has doubled over the last quarter and the increased market cap should lead to global index inclusion in August.
Short interest in Cloud Village (9899 HK) is at an all-time high and has increased in lockstep with the stock price.
Cloud Village (9899 HK) has outperformed Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) and now trades at much higher valuations. A pair trade looks attractive here.

Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN): Increased Float & Global Index Inclusion

An increase in the stock price and free float should result in Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN)‘s inclusion in a global index in August.
Estimated passive buying is 191m shares (US$312m; 5.8x ADV; 15.4x delivery volume) at the close of trading on 26 August.
The index inclusion could take the stock higher in the short-term but buyers in the June placement could be looking for an exit.

Meitu (1357 HK): AI-Driven Global Index Inclusion

Meitu Inc (1357 HK)‘s stock price has more than tripled over the last few months and the significantly higher market cap should lead to global index inclusion in August.
Shorts covered a lot in 2024 and that has continued this year as the stock price has moved higher.
Meitu Inc (1357 HK) has outperformed its peers significantly and there could be a pullback in the stock following index inclusion.

SKT Foreign Room Heating Up — Time to Front-Run?

SKT’s foreign room jumped from 12% to 20% in two months; if the pace holds, 25% is in play by next review, with ongoing foreign outflows from the SIM leak.
FOL shifts from foreign room swings have been a classic long-short play in Korea telcos — and the current setup looks similar, with most SIM leak risks already priced in.
If SKT’s foreign room nears 25%, expect front-running and passive flow imbalances to kick in — a familiar long-short setup that’s historically moved the telco tape early.

[Japan M&A] Nikkei Reports Pacific Industrial (7250) To Go Private Via MBO at ¥110bn

Overnight, the Nikkei carried an article saying Toyota valve supplier Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) would go private at a 40% premium in an MBO.
The implied price would match its ATH, but would remain far below book value, which is disappointing for a company with a very strong customer base and market share.
This is potentially blockable, but it would need to be activism from scratch I think. An activist or collection of them would need about 18-20% to block this deal.

HEW: Trade Deals & Fiscal Slippage

Market narratives were driven by US trade pacts, critically with Japan, the ECB watching data from a good place, and further evidence of UK fiscal problems.
Tariff uncertainty eased slightly, but it is still fierce ahead of the 1 August deadline. PMIs remained resilient, and UK retail sales rebounded into growth again for Q2.
Next week brings Fed, BoC and BoJ meetings (broadly on hold), US and euro-area GDP growth for Q2, US payrolls, euro-area unemployment and slower flash HICP data.

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Jul 25

Most Read: IFBH, Shengyi Electronics, Doosan Corp, Cloud Village, Vishal Mega Mart, CK Hutchison Holdings, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), REA Group Ltd, Meitu Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added
STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Outright Changes & Migrations
UK Structurally Unemployed
Doosan Corp (000150 KS): Global Index Inclusion & A Relative Value Trade
Netease Cloud Music (9899 HK): Stock Up; Short Interest Up; Global Index Inclusion
Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN): Increased Float & Global Index Inclusion
StubWorld: CKH (1 HK) – Expect Near-Term Weakness If Exclusivity Ends Without Resolution
A/H Premiums & Recent Listings Performance-Changing Trends but Quality Matters More than the Premium
Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep25: Exp ADDs Down Vs Exp DELs Since Methodology Change; Time to Reverse?
Meitu (1357 HK): AI-Driven Global Index Inclusion

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added

We see 28 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Outright Changes & Migrations

Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 1 change for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 5 changes for the STAR100 Index in September.
We estimate turnover of 1% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 3.6% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated round-trip trade is CNY 5bn (US$700m).
Near term performance for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) changes has been great, while the performance of the outright STAR100 Index changes has been far from satisfactory.

UK Structurally Unemployed

Higher employment taxes can entirely explain the fall in payrolls as the tax wedge hits its highest since 1987, raising our structural unemployment rate estimate by 0.48pp.
That could understate the structural shift amid a substantial drop in the threshold, rise in the minimum wage (jobs ban) and benefit rates. Some will go ‘inactive’ on disability.
The unemployment rate must rise more than its natural rate to deliver disinflationary pressure sustainably. Our structural estimates suggest it won’t break excess inflation.

Doosan Corp (000150 KS): Global Index Inclusion & A Relative Value Trade

A doubling of the stock price over the last 3 months could lead to Doosan Corp (000150 KS) being included in a global index in August.
Doosan Corp (000150 KS) has outperformed its peers over the last few months and now trades at a huge valuation premium to its peer group.
The stock is 17% off its recent highs and that provides an opportunity for a relative value trade heading into the index inclusion event.

Netease Cloud Music (9899 HK): Stock Up; Short Interest Up; Global Index Inclusion

Cloud Village (9899 HK)‘s stock price has doubled over the last quarter and the increased market cap should lead to global index inclusion in August.
Short interest in Cloud Village (9899 HK) is at an all-time high and has increased in lockstep with the stock price.
Cloud Village (9899 HK) has outperformed Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) and now trades at much higher valuations. A pair trade looks attractive here.

Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN): Increased Float & Global Index Inclusion

An increase in the stock price and free float should result in Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN)‘s inclusion in a global index in August.
Estimated passive buying is 191m shares (US$312m; 5.8x ADV; 15.4x delivery volume) at the close of trading on 26 August.
The index inclusion could take the stock higher in the short-term but buyers in the June placement could be looking for an exit.

StubWorld: CKH (1 HK) – Expect Near-Term Weakness If Exclusivity Ends Without Resolution

CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)‘s delicate dance continues as it juggles U.S and Beijing politics; and its fiduciary duty to shareholders, as the Blackrock exclusivity long stop date looms.
In a double dose of StubWorld this week, preceding my comments on CKH – and CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

A/H Premiums & Recent Listings Performance-Changing Trends but Quality Matters More than the Premium

By Sumeet Singh

With a spate of A/H listings already done in the first half and a lot more in the pipeline, we look at some of the trends from the recent listings.
In this note, we will also talk about how the A/H premiums have moved since our last note in March 2025.
Overall, recent A/H listings have somewhat reversed the trend of past A/H listings not doing much in the near term, with a few exceptions.

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep25: Exp ADDs Down Vs Exp DELs Since Methodology Change; Time to Reverse?

In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
Currently, a market consultation is being conducted and there could be several significant changes made to the index selection process.
The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th September 2025.

Meitu (1357 HK): AI-Driven Global Index Inclusion

Meitu Inc (1357 HK)‘s stock price has more than tripled over the last few months and the significantly higher market cap should lead to global index inclusion in August.
Shorts covered a lot in 2024 and that has continued this year as the stock price has moved higher.
Meitu Inc (1357 HK) has outperformed its peers significantly and there could be a pullback in the stock following index inclusion.

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Jul 24

Most Read: Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders , Prosus NV, Waaree Energies, Maxio Technology Hangzhou, LIG Nex1 Co, Japan Post Holdings, Tsi Holdings, Doosan Corp, Cloud Village and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes & Close Names
Prosus Is Elevated Vs. Tencent As The Accretion Trade Unfolds
Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN): Increased Float & Global Index Inclusion
STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes for September
UK Structurally Unemployed
LIG Nex1 (079550 KS): Stock Soars; Momentum Stalls; Global Index Inclusion Next
StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Is “Cheap”
TSI Holdings (3608) – YET ANOTHER Big Buyback, Still Good, Still Cheap, But B/S Restructuring Slow
Doosan Corp (000150 KS): Global Index Inclusion & A Relative Value Trade
Netease Cloud Music (9899 HK): Stock Up; Short Interest Up; Global Index Inclusion

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes & Close Names

With the review period nearing completion, there could be 4 changes (including 1 migration) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in September.
There is one stock close to inclusion zone and one stock close to deletion zone and price movements over the rest of the month will determine the final changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 30.06bn (US$350m). Six of the eight potential changes will have over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers.

Prosus Is Elevated Vs. Tencent As The Accretion Trade Unfolds

Since unwinding the Naspers (NPN SJ)/Prosus (PRX NA) circularity, Prosus has been selling Tencent shares, and buying back its share. Separately, Tencent is buying its shares to offset Prosus’ selling.
Prosus’ stake in Tencent has now edged below 23%, a little over seven months since dipping below 24%.
On an implied stub and relative value, Prosus is elevated to Tencent, suggesting an unwinding of the stub.

Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN): Increased Float & Global Index Inclusion

An increase in the stock price and free float should result in Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN) being included in a global index in August.
Estimated passive buying is 8.2m shares (US$295m; 3x ADV; 10.8x delivery volume) at the close of trading on 26 August.
Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN) has outperformed Premier Energies (PREMIERE IN) over the last 3 months but still trades at a lower forward PE.

STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes for September

There could be 2 constituent change for the STAR Chip Index at the September rebalance. There will also be a few capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 1.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 983m (US$137m). Passives need to trade between 0.4-1.9x ADV in the potential changes.
Both forecast inclusions are newly eligible for index inclusion and the passive buying could provide some support following the drop in the stock price post listing.

UK Structurally Unemployed

Higher employment taxes can entirely explain the fall in payrolls as the tax wedge hits its highest since 1987, raising our structural unemployment rate estimate by 0.48pp.
That could understate the structural shift amid a substantial drop in the threshold, rise in the minimum wage (jobs ban) and benefit rates. Some will go ‘inactive’ on disability.
The unemployment rate must rise more than its natural rate to deliver disinflationary pressure sustainably. Our structural estimates suggest it won’t break excess inflation.

LIG Nex1 (079550 KS): Stock Soars; Momentum Stalls; Global Index Inclusion Next

LIG Nex1 Co (079550 KS)‘s stock price has doubled over the last 3 months, and the increased market cap could now result in a global index inclusion.
LIG Nex1 Co (079550 KS) has outperformed most of its peers over the last few months and now trades expensive on a range of metrics.
While momentum could take the stock higher, there is a risk of pullback as positioning in the stock is unwound.

StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Is “Cheap”

As short-term rates rise, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)‘s perceived superior fundamentals may be leading to a short squeeze on the stock versus Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP).
Preceding my comments on Japan Post – and Silicon Integrated Systems (2363 TT) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

TSI Holdings (3608) – YET ANOTHER Big Buyback, Still Good, Still Cheap, But B/S Restructuring Slow

A bit over three years ago I re-wrote on Tsi Holdings (3608 JP). Then? EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA of 0.03x and 0.5x respectively. I pounded the table.
My recommended trade: “Buy the stock (preferably from cross-holders interested in selling). Buy with both hands. Buy a lot. Buy more later. Pressure the company to go private.”
Since then, total return has been +295%. Today they announced another buyback. Tomorrow morning it gets done. Details details details!

Doosan Corp (000150 KS): Global Index Inclusion & A Relative Value Trade

A doubling of the stock price over the last 3 months could lead to Doosan Corp (000150 KS) being included in a global index in August.
Doosan Corp (000150 KS) has outperformed its peers over the last few months and now trades at a huge valuation premium to its peer group.
The stock is 17% off its recent highs and that provides an opportunity for a relative value trade heading into the index inclusion event.

Netease Cloud Music (9899 HK): Stock Up; Short Interest Up; Global Index Inclusion

Cloud Village (9899 HK)‘s stock price has doubled over the last quarter and the increased market cap should lead to global index inclusion in August.
Short interest in Cloud Village (9899 HK) is at an all-time high and has increased in lockstep with the stock price.
Cloud Village (9899 HK) has outperformed Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) and now trades at much higher valuations. A pair trade looks attractive here.

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Jul 23

Most Read: Seven & I Holdings, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders , Shengyi Electronics, 3SBio Inc, Insignia Financial, WuXi XDC Cayman , HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

The Final ACT Comedy of Errors Opens the Way for Real Value to Emerge at Seven & I
Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Cheaper than Peers with Index Inclusion Kicker
A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues Some More
NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes & Close Names
STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Outright Changes & Migrations
3SBio (1530 HK): Global Index Inclusion as Stock Soars
Insignia Financial (IFL AU) Accepts CC Capital’s Reduced Terms
UK Fiscal Slippage Rules
Wuxi XDC Cayman (2268 HK): Soaring Pharma Stocks & Global Index Inclusion
HD Merger: Overblown Policy Risk Creates a Convergence Play Opportunity

The Final ACT Comedy of Errors Opens the Way for Real Value to Emerge at Seven & I

By Michael Causton

ACT’s bid for Seven & I has been withdrawn and Seven will be better off long-term because of it – although we detail here how competitors are catching up fast.
Once York HD has been split off, the company can at last focus on its crucial local CVS operation: Japan makes up 25% of revenues but almost 50% of profits.
The potential is real and we are bullish on the long-term value but we would have been more bullish if the former CEO Ryuichi Isaka was still on board.

Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Cheaper than Peers with Index Inclusion Kicker

Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) stock price has moved higher over the last few months, and the increased market cap should result in global index inclusion in August.
Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics.
There will be positioning in the stock that has been built up over the last month and a relative value trade could offer better risk reward here.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues Some More

AH premia flat again among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It still pays well to be long wide H discounts.
Weeks ago I said, “It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.” Ride on.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes & Close Names

With the review period nearing completion, there could be 4 changes (including 1 migration) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in September.
There is one stock close to inclusion zone and one stock close to deletion zone and price movements over the rest of the month will determine the final changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 30.06bn (US$350m). Six of the eight potential changes will have over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers.

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Outright Changes & Migrations

Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 1 change for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 5 changes for the STAR100 Index in September.
We estimate turnover of 1% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 3.6% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated round-trip trade is CNY 5bn (US$700m).
Near term performance for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) changes has been great, while the performance of the outright STAR100 Index changes has been far from satisfactory.

3SBio (1530 HK): Global Index Inclusion as Stock Soars

3SBio Inc (1530 HK)‘s stock price has soared over the last couple of months, and the higher market cap should result in global index inclusion in August.
3SBio Inc (1530 HK) has gone from middle/bottom of the pack to best performer among its peer group over the last two months.
There will be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar trend across stocks in the industry.

Insignia Financial (IFL AU) Accepts CC Capital’s Reduced Terms

Insignia Financial (IFL AU), a wealth manager and previously known as IOOF, has entered into a Scheme with CC Capital at $A$4.80/share.
That’s 56.9% premium to undisturbed (11th December 2024), 20% above Bain’s initial indicative tilt last year, but 4% below CC Capital (% Bain’s) A$5.00/share indictive Offer on the 7th March.
Apart from the Scheme vote, CC Capital’s Offer requires a raft a regulatory approvals. The SID indicates 1H26 completion.

UK Fiscal Slippage Rules

The UK’s de facto fiscal rule is slippage, with a £50bn to £100bn increase in borrowing between initial official forecasts and outcomes. 2025-26 made another slippery start.
Politicians spend any space in the OBR forecasts, skewing surprises to higher spending. Yet tax hikes keep failing to raise the hoped revenue, motivating further increases.
Investors should not be fooled by forecasts for consolidation when the failed strategy driving the fiscal slippage rule survives. Issuance may stay near £300bn in 2029-30.

Wuxi XDC Cayman (2268 HK): Soaring Pharma Stocks & Global Index Inclusion

WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK)‘s stock price has recovered from the tariff fear induced selloff and the higher market cap should result in global index inclusion in August.
WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK) has gone from bottom of the pack to middle over the last 9 months and there could be further relative upside.
There is positioning in the stock but it appears to be lower than positioning in its peers. Long/short trades could offer better risk/return.

HD Merger: Overblown Policy Risk Creates a Convergence Play Opportunity

NAV sets the floor under the proposed bill. That’d cut the swap ratio from 1:0.162 to 1:0.128 — meaning Infracore holders get fewer CE shares than under market pricing.
Unlike the Doosan deal, this one’s unlikely to get walked back. With wide spreads and HD setting a 10% SO cap, the dislocation looks tradable despite appraisal right overhang.
Top holders/NPS hold ~50%, local instos 20%, foreigners 15% and retail the rest. Sentiment’s cautious but not hostile; appraisal risk looks manageable, making this spread a potential convergence play.

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Jul 22

Most Read: Max Healthcare Institute, Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm, Lifenet Insurance Company, Reece Ltd, Vivendi SE, Anthem Biosciences, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Seven & I Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes, Impact, Positioning
Sichuan Kelun Biotech (6990 HK): Price Surge & Global Index Inclusion
[Japan Index] Lifenet Insurance (7157) Super Green TOPIX Inclusion
Reece (REH AU): Positioning Increases as Global Index Deletion Nears
Vivendi: Mandatory Buyout in Motion – High-Conviction Risk Arb with 30%+ Upside
Anthem Biosciences IPO: Lists Today; Index Inclusion Timing
A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues Some More
Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Cheaper than Peers with Index Inclusion Kicker
Two New Tax Tweaks Set to Shake Up Korea’s Local Stock Market: Trading Tax & CGT Threshold
The Final ACT Comedy of Errors Opens the Way for Real Value to Emerge at Seven & I

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes, Impact, Positioning

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) and Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) should replace Indusind Bank (IIB IN) and Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) in the NIFTY Index in September.
The review period for the September rebalance ends 31 July, the announcement of the changes will take place end August and implemented at the close of trading on 29 September.
While there has been a steady increase in cumulative excess volume for Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN), there could be more room to run in the stock.

Sichuan Kelun Biotech (6990 HK): Price Surge & Global Index Inclusion

The recent placement and price surge in Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990 HK) could result in the stock being added to a global index in August.
Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm has outperformed its peers as the entire industry has been trading well. There is a small increase in short interest in the stock.
Positioning has increased steadily over the last month. Momentum in the stock and its peers could lead to further upside before profit taking kicks in.

[Japan Index] Lifenet Insurance (7157) Super Green TOPIX Inclusion

On Friday after the close, Lifenet Insurance Company (7157 JP) announced that it would move to TSE Prime on 25 July 2025.
That means it will go into TOPIX on 29 August 2025 at the close. There is a lot to buy. Under the old Quiddity TOPIX Inclusion matrix, it’s super green.
It also has a very interesting shareholder structure which is worth looking at in detail.

Reece (REH AU): Positioning Increases as Global Index Deletion Nears

Reece Ltd (REH AU)‘s stock price has dropped a lot over the last year, and the significantly lower market cap could result in global index deletion in August.
Short interest started to pick up early this year and has accelerated over the last couple of months. There are indications of positioning in the stock.
Reece Ltd (REH AU) has underperformed its peers but still trades at a higher EV/EBITDA and forward PE compared to most of its peer group.

Vivendi: Mandatory Buyout in Motion – High-Conviction Risk Arb with 30%+ Upside

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vivendi trades at a 37.7% discount to NAV, with a mandated buyout by Bolloré offering a realistic upside of 22–37% within six months pending French Supreme Court review.
The AMF has ruled that Bolloré must launch a tender offer. Vivendi’s simplified structure, anchored by UMG, enables clear valuation through a detailed SOTP showing €5.26/share NAV.
With liquidity exceeding €3bn, Bolloré can finance a buyout of minority shareholders. Even conservative pricing scenarios imply strong returns for arbitrage investors seeking event-driven upside.

Anthem Biosciences IPO: Lists Today; Index Inclusion Timing

Anthem Biosciences raised INR 34bn (US$394m) in its IPO valuing the company at INR 320bn (US$3.7bn). The stock lists today.
The grey market premium is INR 132/share, so the stock could list 23.2% higher than the IPO price. That will help in getting larger index flows.
Anthem Biosciences could be added to one global index in November while the stock price gain will determine whether the stock is added to the other global index in December.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues Some More

AH premia flat again among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It still pays well to be long wide H discounts.
Weeks ago I said, “It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.” Ride on.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Cheaper than Peers with Index Inclusion Kicker

Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) stock price has moved higher over the last few months, and the increased market cap should result in global index inclusion in August.
Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics.
There will be positioning in the stock that has been built up over the last month and a relative value trade could offer better risk reward here.

Two New Tax Tweaks Set to Shake Up Korea’s Local Stock Market: Trading Tax & CGT Threshold

Trading tax gradually dropped from 0.25% in 2020 to 0.15% in 2025, boosting volatility and short-term trades; a hike to 0.25% could cool momentum but widen arbitrage and basis spreads.
If the major shareholder tax threshold drops to ₩1B, year-end retail dumps and Jan buybacks will return—but with less wild swings and more measured short-term fade and momentum trades.
If the tax revamp drops end-July, expect a September Assembly push. Usually effective next January, but like 2023’s cap gains hike, changes might apply immediately in 2025.

The Final ACT Comedy of Errors Opens the Way for Real Value to Emerge at Seven & I

By Michael Causton

ACT’s bid for Seven & I has been withdrawn and Seven will be better off long-term because of it – although we detail here how competitors are catching up fast.
Once York HD has been split off, the company can at last focus on its crucial local CVS operation: Japan makes up 25% of revenues but almost 50% of profits.
The potential is real and we are bullish on the long-term value but we would have been more bullish if the former CEO Ryuichi Isaka was still on board.

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Jul 21

Most Read: Ryohin Keikaku, Dickson Concepts Intl, SK Hynix, BYD, Pop Mart International Group L, Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm, Seven & I Holdings, Max Healthcare Institute, Reece Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb
Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August
Dickson Concepts (113 HK): A Necessary HK Arbageddon
SK Hynix Single-Stock ETF Scheduled for 3Q: Watch for a Repeat of the Samsung ETF Playbook
Curator’s Cut: Japan Insurers Vs Banks, the State of the Chinese EV Sector and Asian Ports in Focus
Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Sep25: BeOne, TME, and Pop Mart Among Our Top Picks
Sichuan Kelun Biotech (6990 HK): Price Surge & Global Index Inclusion
Last Week In Event SPACE: Seven & I, Krungthai Card, GMO Internet, Jardine Matheson
NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes, Impact, Positioning
Reece (REH AU): Positioning Increases as Global Index Deletion Nears

7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb

Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) which proposed a takeover to Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) almost a year ago, has walked. They delivered a letter bomb on the way out.
The letter is titled “ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD ANNOUNCES WITHDRAWAL OF PROPOSAL TO ACQUIRE SEVEN & I HOLDINGS DUE TO LACK OF ENGAGEMENT.” This is not the first time they have complained.
The letter is not aimed at the 7&i Board or at ATD stakeholders. It is meant to drive a wedge between 7&i active shareholders and its management team. We’ll see.

Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August

Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)‘s stock price has more than doubled this year and the increased market cap could now result in a global index inclusion.
Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) has outperformed its peers by a BIG margin since its inclusion in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in September 2024.
There appears to be significant positioning in the stock. Given the huge outperformance over the last few months, trim into strength.

Dickson Concepts (113 HK): A Necessary HK Arbageddon

Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) shareholders have voted against Sir Poon’s HK$7.20 per share offer. The vote marginally failed the <10% of all disinterested shareholders’ rejection threshold.
While painful, this deal break was arguably the correct outcome as the offer was below the net cash and Dickson is cash generative on an underlying basis.
Unlike the last HK deal break (Soundwill), the price action over the last two days indicated a done deal. My estimated break price is HK$5.00 (30% downside to last close).

SK Hynix Single-Stock ETF Scheduled for 3Q: Watch for a Repeat of the Samsung ETF Playbook

When the SK Hynix ETF drops, expect meaningful physical buying shaking up supply-demand. Arb desks and alpha shops could pile in early, pushing the stock higher on flow.
Going long Hynix near listing could pay off if demand mirrors Samsung’s—ETF flows, NAV arb, and delta hedging drove a 4% jump with a noticeable increase in program buying.
Get in around the listing, watch flows, and take profits quickly. This is a short 2–3 day tactical play, with sharper front-running expected based on the Samsung ETF template.

Curator’s Cut: Japan Insurers Vs Banks, the State of the Chinese EV Sector and Asian Ports in Focus

By Pranav Rao

Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ insights published in the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we compare Japanese insurers versus banks, look at the Chinese EV sector and explore how tariff hikes benefit Asian port operators
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Sep25: BeOne, TME, and Pop Mart Among Our Top Picks

The Hang Seng Index is the main benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.
In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in September 2025.
The index changes are expected to be confirmed on 22nd August 2025.

Sichuan Kelun Biotech (6990 HK): Price Surge & Global Index Inclusion

The recent placement and price surge in Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990 HK) could result in the stock being added to a global index in August.
Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm has outperformed its peers as the entire industry has been trading well. There is a small increase in short interest in the stock.
Positioning has increased steadily over the last month. Momentum in the stock and its peers could lead to further upside before profit taking kicks in.

Last Week In Event SPACE: Seven & I, Krungthai Card, GMO Internet, Jardine Matheson

Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) walks away from Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), and accuses 7&i’s Board, management, and the Special Committee of bad faith and bad governance.
Buy Krungthai Card (KTC TB) with both hands as pledged sharesfall to 3.5% of shares outstanding from 16.3% the previous month.
If you have borrow on GMO Internet (4784 JP), use it. Otherwise, avoid like the plague. It would not be surprising if the TSE were to ding someone on manipulation.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes, Impact, Positioning

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) and Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) should replace Indusind Bank (IIB IN) and Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) in the NIFTY Index in September.
The review period for the September rebalance ends 31 July, the announcement of the changes will take place end August and implemented at the close of trading on 29 September.
While there has been a steady increase in cumulative excess volume for Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN), there could be more room to run in the stock.

Reece (REH AU): Positioning Increases as Global Index Deletion Nears

Reece Ltd (REH AU)‘s stock price has dropped a lot over the last year, and the significantly lower market cap could result in global index deletion in August.
Short interest started to pick up early this year and has accelerated over the last couple of months. There are indications of positioning in the stock.
Reece Ltd (REH AU) has underperformed its peers but still trades at a higher EV/EBITDA and forward PE compared to most of its peer group.

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Jul 20

Most Read: Taishin Financial Holding, Lens Technology, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders , Lg Innotek, Seven & I Holdings, Mitsui Matsushima, Ryohin Keikaku, Dickson Concepts Intl, LG Chem Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July
Lens Technology (6613 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion
AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows
KOSPI Size Indices: Overlaps Between Active & Passive Flows
7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb
[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Buyback Tender – Surprising Results and Implications
Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August
HEW: Inflation Persists, But Cuts Loom
Dickson Concepts (113 HK): A Necessary HK Arbageddon
Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (18 July to 1 August 2025)

Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July

Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) and Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) announced a Merger of Equals in August 2024 and completion is expected on 24 July.
Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) has underperformed its peers over the last 18 months while Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) has underperformed its peers following the merger announcement.
There will be passive flows in the merged entity following the completion of the merger and could help reverse some of Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)‘s underperformance.

Lens Technology (6613 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion

Lens Technology (6613 HK)‘s global offering opened yesterday, and the raise could reach up to US$800m if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
The allocation to cornerstone investors is smaller than in other recent AH listings. The discount of over 25% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for large listings.
Lens Technology (6613 HK) could be added to a global index in December. Inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect in August and HSCI inclusion could take place in March 2026.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows

We forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 10 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 1 stock is expected to be added to Large cap, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for global indices, NIFTY Index, NSE Nifty Next 50 Index and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.

KOSPI Size Indices: Overlaps Between Active & Passive Flows

The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.
Nearing halfway in the review period, we forecast 53 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 1 to SmallCap.
Two potential downward migrations could be deleted from a global index in August. The new listing that is a potential LargeCap add could be added to a globalindex in September.

7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb

Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) which proposed a takeover to Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) almost a year ago, has walked. They delivered a letter bomb on the way out.
The letter is titled “ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD ANNOUNCES WITHDRAWAL OF PROPOSAL TO ACQUIRE SEVEN & I HOLDINGS DUE TO LACK OF ENGAGEMENT.” This is not the first time they have complained.
The letter is not aimed at the 7&i Board or at ATD stakeholders. It is meant to drive a wedge between 7&i active shareholders and its management team. We’ll see.

[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Buyback Tender – Surprising Results and Implications

Today, Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced the results of its Buyback Tender Offer to repurchase up to 3,999,999 shares (35.8% of shares out ex-Treasury) at ¥5,000/share.
Murakami-San owned 42% of the voting rights at announcement, then bought more on the dip just below ¥5,000/share.
The Tender Offer Buyback was “successful” in that it bought back 3.3mm shares. But the result was FAR more interesting than I expected. Surprising Results with Surprising Implications

Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August

Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)‘s stock price has more than doubled this year and the increased market cap could now result in a global index inclusion.
Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) has outperformed its peers by a BIG margin since its inclusion in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in September 2024.
There appears to be significant positioning in the stock. Given the huge outperformance over the last few months, trim into strength.

HEW: Inflation Persists, But Cuts Loom

Persistent upside inflation surprises and sticky wage growth are lifting hawkish market narratives, defying central bank and consensus hopes for a quick return to target.
UK inflation jumped well above forecast in June, strengthening the hawkish case, while US core inflation shows tariffs adding to excessive underlying price pressures.
Next week, attention turns to the ECB decision, July flash PMIs, and UK public finances, as markets weigh central banks’ willingness to ignore resurgent inflation.

Dickson Concepts (113 HK): A Necessary HK Arbageddon

Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) shareholders have voted against Sir Poon’s HK$7.20 per share offer. The vote marginally failed the <10% of all disinterested shareholders’ rejection threshold.
While painful, this deal break was arguably the correct outcome as the offer was below the net cash and Dickson is cash generative on an underlying basis.
Unlike the last HK deal break (Soundwill), the price action over the last two days indicated a done deal. My estimated break price is HK$5.00 (30% downside to last close).

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (18 July to 1 August 2025)

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we provide the top 10 stock picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks (18 July to 1 August 2025).
Our top 10 picks were up on average 4.5% in the past two weeks, slightly outperforming KOSPI which was up 4.4% in the same period.
The top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include Hanil Cement, LG CNS, KCC Corp, Poongsan, Paradise, Samsung Electronics, Naver, SM Entertainment, LG Chem, and SK Inc.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 19

Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Lg Innotek, Seven & I Holdings, Mitsui Matsushima, Ryohin Keikaku, CoreWeave, Douzone Bizon, Nanjing Leads Biolabs, Vivendi SE and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

CATL (3750 HK) H-Share IPO: Fast Entry to Global Indices Is Touch & Go
KOSPI Size Indices: Overlaps Between Active & Passive Flows
7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb
[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Buyback Tender – Surprising Results and Implications
Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August
CoreWeave (CRWV US): Forecasted Addition to Nasdaq100 Replacing Ansys Post-Acquisition
Douzone Bizon: First Real Test for Korea’s De Facto Mandatory Tender?
Nanjing Leads Biolabs IPO: Lead Asset Targets Niche Market; Path to Success Still Long
HEW: Inflation Persists, But Cuts Loom
Vivendi: Mandatory Buyout in Motion – High-Conviction Risk Arb with 30%+ Upside

CATL (3750 HK) H-Share IPO: Fast Entry to Global Indices Is Touch & Go

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) could raise up to US$5.1bn in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
There is a huge allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That significantly reduces float and the probability of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
CATL (3750 HK) will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 16 June following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.

KOSPI Size Indices: Overlaps Between Active & Passive Flows

The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.
Nearing halfway in the review period, we forecast 53 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 1 to SmallCap.
Two potential downward migrations could be deleted from a global index in August. The new listing that is a potential LargeCap add could be added to a globalindex in September.

7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb

Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) which proposed a takeover to Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) almost a year ago, has walked. They delivered a letter bomb on the way out.
The letter is titled “ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD ANNOUNCES WITHDRAWAL OF PROPOSAL TO ACQUIRE SEVEN & I HOLDINGS DUE TO LACK OF ENGAGEMENT.” This is not the first time they have complained.
The letter is not aimed at the 7&i Board or at ATD stakeholders. It is meant to drive a wedge between 7&i active shareholders and its management team. We’ll see.

[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Buyback Tender – Surprising Results and Implications

Today, Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced the results of its Buyback Tender Offer to repurchase up to 3,999,999 shares (35.8% of shares out ex-Treasury) at ¥5,000/share.
Murakami-San owned 42% of the voting rights at announcement, then bought more on the dip just below ¥5,000/share.
The Tender Offer Buyback was “successful” in that it bought back 3.3mm shares. But the result was FAR more interesting than I expected. Surprising Results with Surprising Implications

Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August

Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)‘s stock price has more than doubled this year and the increased market cap could now result in a global index inclusion.
Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) has outperformed its peers by a BIG margin since its inclusion in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in September 2024.
There appears to be significant positioning in the stock. Given the huge outperformance over the last few months, trim into strength.

CoreWeave (CRWV US): Forecasted Addition to Nasdaq100 Replacing Ansys Post-Acquisition

By Dimitris Ioannidis

The acquisition of Ansys Inc (ANSS US) by Synopsys Inc (SNPS US) has been completed today, 17 July and Ansys is expected to be deleted from Nasdaq100.
CoreWeave (CRWV US) is forecasted to be added to Nasdaq100 as the replacement because it is the highest ranked eligible non-constituent following its recent listing on 28 March 2025.
Top addition candidate for the December 2025 annual review is now Kimberly Clark (KMB US) following its listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq on 30 May 2025.

Douzone Bizon: First Real Test for Korea’s De Facto Mandatory Tender?

Founder Kim reportedly looking to offload his 21.5% stake, with EQT eyeing a ~30% control block including Shinhan’s. No succession plans, deal said to be under serious review.
Kim’s control premium ask could trigger Korea’s first test case of expanded fiduciary duty, with minority holders potentially suing if tender terms aren’t seen as fair under new rules.
Buyer likely prepping a Q3 tender offer; key watch is how minority premium stacks vs control block — could be Korea’s first de facto test case of mandatory tender mechanics.

Nanjing Leads Biolabs IPO: Lead Asset Targets Niche Market; Path to Success Still Long

By Tina Banerjee

Nanjing Leads Biolabs has launched HK$1.1B IPO to fund its ongoing and planned clinical development and regulatory affairs of pipeline assets. The company has fetched cornerstone investment of ~HK$ 542M.
Lead product candidate, LBL-024 is being evaluated for extra-pulmonary neuroendocrine carcinoma. Leads Biolabs expects to file the first BLA for LBL-024 by 3Q26 and anticipate obtaining conditional approval by 2Q27.
Positive investor sentiment toward Chinese biotech companies and near-term catalyst being Phase 3 data readout for LBL-024 in early 2026 are the main reasons to subscribe.

HEW: Inflation Persists, But Cuts Loom

Persistent upside inflation surprises and sticky wage growth are lifting hawkish market narratives, defying central bank and consensus hopes for a quick return to target.
UK inflation jumped well above forecast in June, strengthening the hawkish case, while US core inflation shows tariffs adding to excessive underlying price pressures.
Next week, attention turns to the ECB decision, July flash PMIs, and UK public finances, as markets weigh central banks’ willingness to ignore resurgent inflation.

Vivendi: Mandatory Buyout in Motion – High-Conviction Risk Arb with 30%+ Upside

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vivendi trades at a 37.7% discount to NAV, with a mandated buyout by Bolloré offering a realistic upside of 22–37% within six months pending French Supreme Court review.
The AMF has ruled that Bolloré must launch a tender offer. Vivendi’s simplified structure, anchored by UMG, enables clear valuation through a detailed SOTP showing €5.26/share NAV.
With liquidity exceeding €3bn, Bolloré can finance a buyout of minority shareholders. Even conservative pricing scenarios imply strong returns for arbitrage investors seeking event-driven upside.

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Jul 18

Most Read: Seven & I Holdings, Mitsui Matsushima, Krungthai Card, PointsBet Holdings , Consun Pharmaceutical, Samsung Life Insurance, Geely Auto, Ryohin Keikaku and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb
[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Buyback Tender – Surprising Results and Implications
Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buy With Both Hands As Pledged Shares Rollover
UK Jobs Data And The Muddled MPC
PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr Firms “Superior Offer”. Expect The Board To Reject. Again
Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Dead Money as Couche-Tard Unsurprisingly Walks
Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Biotech Sep25: 20 Deletions Likely Due to Major Methodology Change
Samsung Jay Lee Cleared by Supreme Court — Market Reaction Could Flip From Consensus
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep25: Final Expectations; ~US$1.6bn One-Way; Long Up 9% Vs Peers
Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August

7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb

Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) which proposed a takeover to Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) almost a year ago, has walked. They delivered a letter bomb on the way out.
The letter is titled “ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD ANNOUNCES WITHDRAWAL OF PROPOSAL TO ACQUIRE SEVEN & I HOLDINGS DUE TO LACK OF ENGAGEMENT.” This is not the first time they have complained.
The letter is not aimed at the 7&i Board or at ATD stakeholders. It is meant to drive a wedge between 7&i active shareholders and its management team. We’ll see.

[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Buyback Tender – Surprising Results and Implications

Today, Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced the results of its Buyback Tender Offer to repurchase up to 3,999,999 shares (35.8% of shares out ex-Treasury) at ¥5,000/share.
Murakami-San owned 42% of the voting rights at announcement, then bought more on the dip just below ¥5,000/share.
The Tender Offer Buyback was “successful” in that it bought back 3.3mm shares. But the result was FAR more interesting than I expected. Surprising Results with Surprising Implications

Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buy With Both Hands As Pledged Shares Rollover

Late last month, shares in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), XSpring Capital (XPG TB), BEC World Public (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB) all went limit down. Twice.
As discussed in Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call, Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana had pledged his shares in all four companies, reportedly leading to margin calls.
Yesterday, the SET released an updated list of securities pledged in margin accounts. Notably, pledged shares in KTC has fallen to 3.5% of shares outstanding from 16.3% the previous month.

UK Jobs Data And The Muddled MPC

UK payroll revisions removed most of May’s weakness, while wage and price inflation is too fast, yet the BoE probably won’t back down from an August cut as the UR rises.
Fewer payroll inflows explain its downtrend, with <24yo suffering sustained pain, but the 25-64yo endure the taxation hit, structurally raising unemployment by ~0.5pp.
Wage growth isn’t showing signs of new disinflationary demand pressures, so we expect excessive underlying wage and price trends to persist, not helped by an August BoE cut.

PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr Firms “Superior Offer”. Expect The Board To Reject. Again

Back on the 20th June, betr (BBT AU) tabled an all-scrip off-market Offer for PointsBet (PBH AU), with no minimum acceptance condition, which they considered superior to MIXI (2121 JP)‘s.
Which was a bold statement, as 3.81 new betr shares, at the time, was equivalent to A$1.143/share versus MIXI’s A$1.20/share all-cash Offer. It’s now worth A$1.03/share.
Last night, betr released its Bidder’s Statement. Terms are unchanged. Offer opens ~31st July. PointsBet was quick to point out, again, the current (low) value of the scrip terms.

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Dead Money as Couche-Tard Unsurprisingly Walks

Couche-Tard has withdrawn its offer for Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) by unfairly laying the entire blame on the Board.
The Board has made credible progress, but the jury is still out on whether the Board’s plan will generate returns. Shareholders remain sceptical as the shares have underperformed the index.
In theory, the sell-off presents a buying opportunity (My SoTP valuation is JPY 2,376). However, the shares are likely to tread water as there are no near-term catalysts.

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Biotech Sep25: 20 Deletions Likely Due to Major Methodology Change

The Hang Seng Biotech Index (HSHKBIO) will represent the 30 largest biotech companies listed in Hong Kong (HKEX) from September 2025.
Due to a methodology change for HSHKBIO announced in late-June 2025, 20 index constituents could face deletion in September 2025.
In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for index changes and capping flows for HSHKBIO index rebal event in September 2025.

Samsung Jay Lee Cleared by Supreme Court — Market Reaction Could Flip From Consensus

Jay Lee’s clean Supreme Court win may cool Samsung’s governance trade near term. With legal risks gone, there’s less urgency to push structural changes or shuffle shares now.
Samsung C&T, a hotspot for governance spec flows, may see bids fade as urgency for structural shifts drops; longs on revamp bets might consider fading or shorting amid lingering risks.
Samsung Life gets relief as forced Elec share sales drop, supporting its stock. Samsung Elec stays neutral. Trade idea: Samsung Life long, Samsung C&T short on cooled governance hopes.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep25: Final Expectations; ~US$1.6bn One-Way; Long Up 9% Vs Peers

The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations of index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSTECH index rebal event in September 2025.
We see one low-conviction ADD/DEL and one significant float percentage revision which could collectively trigger roughly US$1.6bn in one-way index flows in September 2025.

Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August

Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)‘s stock price has more than doubled this year and the increased market cap could now result in a global index inclusion.
Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) has outperformed its peers by a BIG margin since its inclusion in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in September 2024.
There appears to be significant positioning in the stock. Given the huge outperformance over the last few months, trim into strength.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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Jul 17

Most Read: Horizon Robotics, Amman Mineral Internasional, Dream International, Shibaura Electronics, ZEEKR, State Bank Of India, Muyuan Foodstuff Co Ltd A, Jardine Matheson Holdings, PointsBet Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Universe Expansion Could Lead to One Change
[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) – Benchmark Change for Sep Rebal – $2.8bn One Way
UK CPI Lifts Hawkish Case in June
Dream International (1126 HK): Riding the Popmart Bubble
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Drawing Nearer to a Conclusion
ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Firms Low-Balled Offer. It Is What It Is
SBI US$3bn QIP – No Surprises – Not the World’s Best Kept Secret
Muyuan Foods A/H Listing – Long Term Growth with Short-Term Volatility
Jardine Matheson (JM SP) On A Roll As The Street Turns (More) Positive
PointsBet (PBH AU): The Battle of Takeover Offers Commences

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Universe Expansion Could Lead to One Change

The review period for the September rebalance of the Hang Seng TECH Index ended on 30 June, the changes will be announced on 22 August and implemented on 5 September.
No constituent changes will result in a one-way turnover of 4.1% and that will mean a round-trip trade of HK$15.2bn (US$1.94bn).
An expansion of the index universe could lead to one constituent change and that increases the one-way turnover to 6.2% and the round-trip trade to HK$23.1bn (US$2.94bn).

[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) – Benchmark Change for Sep Rebal – $2.8bn One Way

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) announced last month it would change its benchmark for the September rebalance, to the Market Vectors Global Gold Miners Index.
That means name changes based on methodology and universe changes. So we introduce coverage of the index, its rebalances, and the big flow in September.
We also add in cross flows from the MV Junior Gold Miners Index, offer spreadsheets, flow tables, leaderboards for the GDX index. Lots of data here.

UK CPI Lifts Hawkish Case in June

UK inflation surged 0.2pp beyond the consensus again in June, with underlying inflation measures broadly inconsistent with the target and headlines moving the wrong way.
The consensus is failing to learn the lesson of intense underlying pressures. The CPI rate rose 0.6pp since Jan instead of falling 0.4pp and is 1.4pp higher than called a year ago.
Policymakers seem infected with dovish fear about the labour market ahead of August’s meeting. CPI is 0.9pp higher in our year-ahead forecast, and we were right a year ago.

Dream International (1126 HK): Riding the Popmart Bubble

By Sameer Taneja

We believe that toymakers are experiencing a bubble like rally led by Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) and Hasbro Inc (HAS US) which raised forecasts recently.
Dream International (1126 HK) has returned >200% since liberation day tariffs were declared on April 2nd 2025 and now trades at 12.7x trailing earnings (vs 3.7x when we initiated).
“Never look a gift horse in the mouth” ! .We would take some money off the table here as toy stocks go through periods of cyclicality due restocking/destocking.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Drawing Nearer to a Conclusion

Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has extended the close of its offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) from July 15 to August 1, the end of the waiting period for FEFTA approval.
Yageo remains confident of securing FEFTA approval. Blocking an acquisition of a Type 1 (non-designated business sector) company by a Taiwanese company would set a bad precedent.
There is a medium to high probability that Yageo secures FEFTA approval. Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) is likely to walk as it signalled a limited appetite to match Yageo’s offer.

ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Firms Low-Balled Offer. It Is What It Is

Back on the 7th May, Geely Auto (175 HK), China’s second-largest carmaker, made a US$25.66/ADS non-binding proposal for 62.8%-held ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer
Yesterday, Geely tweaked and firmed terms at US$26.87/ADS, a 4.7% bump to the original NBIO, and ~3.4% below ZEEKR’s last close. ZEEKR promptly gained 2.4% on the news.
ZEEKR shareholders also have the option to receive Geely scrip. Given Geely’s and Li Shufu’s (10.61%) holdings – neither are required to abstain on voting – this Offer is done.

SBI US$3bn QIP – No Surprises – Not the World’s Best Kept Secret

By Sumeet Singh

State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) plans to raise around US$3bn via a QIP. The deal is very well flagged and we wrote on it last week.
Although the stock has been running up a bit going into the deal and the previous deal didn’t do well.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Muyuan Foods A/H Listing – Long Term Growth with Short-Term Volatility

By Sumeet Singh

Muyuan Foodstuff Co Ltd A (002714 CH), a leader in the hog farming industry, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.
MF is a leading pork company with over 30 years of expertise in the hog farming industry.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Jardine Matheson (JM SP) On A Roll As The Street Turns (More) Positive

Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) is up ~10% this week and ~30% YTD. 53.3%-held Hongkong Land (HKL SP), JMH’s largest holding, is up 41% YTD and 85% over the year.
HKL has been on a tear since CEO Michael Smith started on the 1st April 2024, as HKL focused on capital allocation and portfolio management – read deleveraging.
The recent appointment of PAG’s Lincoln Pan at the helm of JMH, has the street upbeat he will bring about similar positive developments. That’s not unreasonable.

PointsBet (PBH AU): The Battle of Takeover Offers Commences