Category

Daily Briefs

Sep 16
0

Daily Brief Health Care: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Pro Medicus Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (16 Sep) – China TCM, Canvest, GA Pack, Raysum, Seven & I, Fuji Soft, Dyna-Mac
  • MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes, Capping to Drive Flow

Merger Arb Mondays (16 Sep) – China TCM, Canvest, GA Pack, Raysum, Seven & I, Fuji Soft, Dyna-Mac

By Arun George

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes, Capping to Drive Flow

By Brian Freitas

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Seven & I Holdings, Midea Group Co Ltd A, PDD Holdings, Taste Gourmet and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • The New FEFTA List (With 7&I (3382) As “Core”) Is Not a Big Hurdle for Couche-Tard
  • Midea Group: Offer Upsized at Top Tier. Updated Valuation Analysis
  • Pre-IPO Midea Group H Share – Here Are the Risks Behind
  • ECM Weekly (16th Sep 2024) – Midea, Bajaj Housing, 99 Speed, P N Gadgil, Hozon, Trial, NextDC, Via
  • Weekly Consumer Tales: Cross Border Comm Crisis-Midea Upsized-LG Elecs’ Upside-Platform Workers Law
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – September 2024

The New FEFTA List (With 7&I (3382) As “Core”) Is Not a Big Hurdle for Couche-Tard

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday 13 September, the Ministry of Finance of Japan released revisions to the list (Japanese, English) of company classifications under the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act (FEFTA)
  • It appears 72 names were newly upgraded to “Core” (“3”), 21 newly listed companies (since the last list in Nov 2021) were labeled “3”, and six lost their Type3 designation. 
  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) saw breathless news articles Friday suggesting a foreign takeover became more difficult. Not really. 

Midea Group: Offer Upsized at Top Tier. Updated Valuation Analysis

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Midea Group(000333 CH)  has increased the shares on offer in Hong Kong by 15% to 565.9 million shares, priced at the top end of the range at HKD54.8 per share.
  • With strong investor interest, the company may exercise an over allotment option that could take the deal size to USD 4.6 billion.
  • Midea’s Hong Kong pricing reflects a nearly 21% discount to its A-share closing price, compared to the average 33% discount for dual-listed companies between Hong Kong and Shanghai or Shenzhen.

Pre-IPO Midea Group H Share – Here Are the Risks Behind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • For the reasons why Midea is eager to IPO in HK, investors shouldn’t just look at the surface of its glory, but delve into the “real motives” behind capital operations.
  • The policy of subsidizing the trade-in of home appliances belongs to “early overdraft of demand” and is unsustainable. Valuation logic for the performance increment brought by such policy is P/B.
  • If Midea cannot achieve the expected breakthroughs in To B business or internationalization in 2025-2026 to hedge against the weak domestic business, Midea’s performance/valuation in following years would inevitable decline.

ECM Weekly (16th Sep 2024) – Midea, Bajaj Housing, 99 Speed, P N Gadgil, Hozon, Trial, NextDC, Via

By Sumeet Singh

Weekly Consumer Tales: Cross Border Comm Crisis-Midea Upsized-LG Elecs’ Upside-Platform Workers Law

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Welcome to Consumer Tales & Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.
  • Temu, (owned by PDD US), and Shein might need to rethink their US strategies if a new rule stops overseas shipments of tariffed products from bypassing US customs duty.
  • Singapore passed a groundbreaking law last week to protect gig workers. Other countries may follow suit and this could adversely impact margins. Take note: Meituan (3690 HK) , Zomato (ZOMATO IN)

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – September 2024

By Sameer Taneja

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Sep 15
0

Daily Brief ESG: Share Trading Unit System and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Share Trading Unit System, Which Made AGM Skeleton and Spurred Cross-Shareholdings, Has Done Its Job

Share Trading Unit System, Which Made AGM Skeleton and Spurred Cross-Shareholdings, Has Done Its Job

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Rather than lowering the minimum investment amount, attention is focused on whether the essence of the issue is whether the long-standing unit share system can be abolished.
  • This system, which doesn’t grant voting rights to shareholders who don’t hold more than certain number shares, has led companies to turn inward-looking by making AGMs skeleton and accelerating cross-shareholdings.
  • With corporate racketeer, who triggered the introduction of this system, gone and the reduction of cross-shareholdings beginning, shareholder units that can exercise voting rights for open AGMs should be reexamined.

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Sep 15
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Domestic Stocks Miss Global Rally and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Domestic Stocks Miss Global Rally
  • Chinese Banks’ Cash Flow Plummets After Crackdown on High Deposit Rates

Japan Weekly | Domestic Stocks Miss Global Rally

By Mark Chadwick

  • Major central banks are shifting towards rate cuts, with the European Central Bank this week lowering rates to 3.5%
  • Japanese stocks ended mixed: Nikkei (+0.5%), Topix (-1%), while the yen strengthened ~1 yen to 140.8/$.
  • Ebara, IHI, and Softbank were among the major gainers this week

Chinese Banks’ Cash Flow Plummets After Crackdown on High Deposit Rates

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese banks are under strain as their deposits shrink in the wake of a regulatory crackdown on offering deposit rates higher than regulatory caps.
  • In the first half of the year, many Chinese mainland-listed commercial banks saw a decline in their net cash flow generated from operating activities — a key indicator of lenders’ liquidity — Caixin calculations based on their interim reports show.
  • Among China’s “Big Six” state-owned banks by assets, only Postal Savings Bank of China Co.

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Sep 15
0

Daily Brief ECM: SHEIN and Temu: New Rule Could Crush “De Minimis” Imports | New Front In “War”  Vs DTC Platforms and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • SHEIN and Temu: New Rule Could Crush “De Minimis” Imports | New Front In “War”  Vs DTC Platforms
  • K Bank IPO Preview
  • Weekly Deals Digest (15 Sep) – Midea, Seven & I, Raysum, Haitong/GJTA, Dyna-Mac
  • K-Bank’s IPO Details Out: Aggressive Pricing, but as a Crypto Play, It Might Surprise

SHEIN and Temu: New Rule Could Crush “De Minimis” Imports | New Front In “War”  Vs DTC Platforms

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Biden Administration rule would make “de minimis” items subject to tariffs
  • Besides adding to landed cost of those items, reporting requirements would rise
  • In addition, US/EU governments launch probes of SHEIN/Temu product safety

K Bank IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • K Bank finally provided its IPO prospectus which includes more details of the IPO than what the company already announced about the IPO several days ago. 
  • Bankers used KakaoBank, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, and Bancorp Inc as comps. Average PBR of 2.56x was used to value K Bank. 
  • Some investors will question the inclusion of overseas comps including SBI Sumishin Net Bank and Bancorp in the valuation of K Bank.

Weekly Deals Digest (15 Sep) – Midea, Seven & I, Raysum, Haitong/GJTA, Dyna-Mac

By Arun George

K-Bank’s IPO Details Out: Aggressive Pricing, but as a Crypto Play, It Might Surprise

By Sanghyun Park

  • Compared to its overseas peers, K-Bank’s high valuation still stands out due to a significant gap in net income size relative to market cap.
  • The offering structure, with 50% secondary sales and weak lock-up commitments, means post-IPO float could spike to around 40%, making a stock price bump unlikely.
  • K-Bank’s crypto-focused model might attract investors valuing it as a crypto play, potentially influencing IPO pricing and post-listing stock performance.

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Sep 15
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Tuhu Car (9690 HK | BUY | TP:HKD24): Poised to Capture China’s Auto Aftersales Service Market and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Tuhu Car (9690 HK | BUY | TP:HKD24): Poised to Capture China’s Auto Aftersales Service Market
  • China Banks; Challenged on Credit Quality Trends, with Selective Opportunities to Be Found
  • Palo Alto Networks’ Bold Shift: Can AI-Driven Security Keep Up with Cyber Threats?
  • Insulet Corporation: Will The Enhanced Focus on MDI Market Segments Pay Off? – Major Drivers
  • GameStop’s Bumpy Road to Recovery: Is The Meme Stock Worth The Risk?
  • European Airlines – Fare Data Suggests Risk to EasyJet/Wizz Peak Summer but Winter More Encouraging
  • Ambarella’s AI Surge: Can IoT and Automotive Growth Drive Future Success?
  • Teradyne Inc.: Expansion into High-Payload Robotics and Channel Growth Is A Critical Growth Lever! – Major Drivers
  • The Descartes Systems Group: Advantage Through Strategic Acquisitions – Focus on BoxTop Technologies! – Major Drivers
  • Toll Brothers: Expanding Geographic Footprint & Emphasis on Spec Homes Driving Growth! – Major Drivers

Tuhu Car (9690 HK | BUY | TP:HKD24): Poised to Capture China’s Auto Aftersales Service Market

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Tuhu Car (9690 HK) is poised to capture the lion share of China’s automotive aftersales service industry that is forecasted to grow at 7.3% CAGR from 2023:30. 
  • Tuhu is on an inflection of high earnings growth (+30% CAGR) as it has reached scalability, cost efficiency, and its younger shops are maturing profitably.    
  • Our fair value of HKD24 implies 25x FY25 PE – average for US peers. A bargain with 3-year CAGR of 30%, net cash, and churns high free cash flow.

China Banks; Challenged on Credit Quality Trends, with Selective Opportunities to Be Found

By Victor Galliano

  • In this China banks screen, we focus on the credit quality headwinds going forward and which are the better positioned banks to confront the challenge
  • China bank shares’ PBV ratios have eroded over time, due to low growth and credit quality concerns; yet through our analysis of these bank, we see selective contrarian positive opportunities
  • CCB is a core GEM bank buy for its deeply discounted valuations and strong balance sheet; Ping An Bank is the deep value contrarian pick; Minsheng is our fundamental sell

Palo Alto Networks’ Bold Shift: Can AI-Driven Security Keep Up with Cyber Threats?

By Baptista Research

  • Palo Alto Networks’ fiscal fourth quarter 2024 earnings announcement underscores both strides and challenges in the cybersecurity landscape, reflecting a dynamic sector intensively engaged with technological advancements and emerging threats.
  • Chairman and CEO Nikesh Arora detailed the company’s response to significant cybersecurity threats, including ransomware and public data extortion, emphasizing a heightened focus on AI and platformization to simplify client security architectures.
  • Financially, Palo Alto Networks reported exceeding its quarterly revenue and EPS guidance.

Insulet Corporation: Will The Enhanced Focus on MDI Market Segments Pay Off? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Insulet Corporation has demonstrated robust financial performance in the second quarter of 2024, aligning with the company’s primary goal of enhancing diabetes management through its Omnipod products.
  • Jim Hollingshead, the CEO, highlighted the significant demand for Omnipod 5, which has been central to the company’s growth both domestically and internationally.
  • The company’s innovation trajectory remains strong with numerous product launches, including the full market release of Omnipod 5 integrated with Dexcom’s G7.

GameStop’s Bumpy Road to Recovery: Is The Meme Stock Worth The Risk?

By Baptista Research

  • GameStop, a major player in the video game retail industry, revealed a complex scenario in its latest earnings presentation for the fourth quarter and full year 2022.
  • The company’s leadership highlighted substantial shifts in strategies aimed at improving profitability and creating sustainable long-term growth.
  • From a financial perspective, GameStop reported a net income of $48.2 million for the quarter, compared to a considerable net loss of $147.5 million in the same quarter of the previous year.

European Airlines – Fare Data Suggests Risk to EasyJet/Wizz Peak Summer but Winter More Encouraging

By Neil Glynn

  • Latest RDC fare data deep dive suggests scope for negative surprises at easyJet and Wizz Air – we publish a detailed analysis across booking windows.
  • ​easyJet fare data suggest potential for late-market disappointment, albeit winter prospects more encouraging.
  • Wizz Air fare data cast doubt on hopes for fare growth.

Ambarella’s AI Surge: Can IoT and Automotive Growth Drive Future Success?

By Baptista Research

  • Ambarella’s Q2 Fiscal Year 2025 earnings revealed a mixed yet promising scenario as the company navigates through a challenging economic environment while seizing growing demands for AI-powered solutions.
  • Dr. Fermi Wang, President and CEO, alongside CFO John Young, presented a detailed account of the company’s performance and future outlook which provides a comprehensive understanding of its position and strategies moving forward.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Teradyne Inc.: Expansion into High-Payload Robotics and Channel Growth Is A Critical Growth Lever! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Teradyne, a leading provider of automated test equipment, exhibited mixed financial results in the second quarter of 2024, grappling with various segment-specific dynamics and macroeconomic factors.
  • The company reported a robust performance in its System on Chip (SOC) and Memory segments, primarily boosted by elevated demand from cloud AI applications.
  • Additionally, Teradyne noted solid deliveries in the Compute sector, attributed to the dense network requirements of AI data centers.

The Descartes Systems Group: Advantage Through Strategic Acquisitions – Focus on BoxTop Technologies! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Descartes Systems Group has reported its quarterly financial results, illustrating a strong performance across several key financial metrics.
  • This performance is anchored by a 14% increase in total revenues yearover-year, with a significant component of this growth being organic, estimated at about 9%.
  • Furthermore, the company enjoyed a 23% increase in net income compared to the previous year, and adjusted EBITDA climbed by 17%, surpassing the company’s target growth range of 10%-15% annually.

Toll Brothers: Expanding Geographic Footprint & Emphasis on Spec Homes Driving Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Toll Brothers, a prominent homebuilder, showcased an optimistic third quarter for the 2024 fiscal year, reflecting growth and stability despite varied market conditions.
  • In this quarter, the company reported record home sale revenues of $2.72 billion, demonstrating a strong performance with the delivery of 2,814 homes at an average price of $968,000.
  • The adjusted gross margin significantly outperformed projections, reaching 28.8%, aided by operational efficiencies and a favorable mix of home sales.

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Sep 15
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade of Over US$1bn and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade of Over US$1bn
  • MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2bn
  • Raysum (8890 JP): Hulic (3033 JP)’s Tender Offer a Done Deal
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Seven & I, Hotel Property, Hulic, Joban Kosan, Dyna Mac, Fuji Soft, Descente
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Alibaba, Young Poong/Korea Zinc, Shinko Electric, Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 13 Sep 2024); Weak Data, Weak Markets, but BABA and Banks!
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Sep15)- Tiantan’s New Deal, BeiGene-AbbVie Lawsuit, BIOSECURE Act Will Pass
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 13 Sep 2024): SB Buying of H Underperformance
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec 24: Two Changes Possible; US$265mn Capping Flows One-Way

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade of Over US$1bn

By Brian Freitas

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2bn

By Brian Freitas

Raysum (8890 JP): Hulic (3033 JP)’s Tender Offer a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Raysum Co Ltd (8890 JP) has recommended Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP)’s tender offer at JPY5,913, a 94.2% premium to the last close price of JPY3,045.
  • The tender offer runs from 17 September to 30 October (30 business days), with payment commencing from 7 November. The offer represents an all-time high. 
  • This is a done deal, as the irrevocable (Oasis) represents a 63.88% ownership ratio. With a knockout offer, the required 7.7% minority acceptance rate is easily achieved.  

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Seven & I, Hotel Property, Hulic, Joban Kosan, Dyna Mac, Fuji Soft, Descente

By David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Alibaba, Young Poong/Korea Zinc, Shinko Electric, Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec

By David Blennerhassett

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 13 Sep 2024); Weak Data, Weak Markets, but BABA and Banks!

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND was a net buyer this week. Over five days, it was +HK$12.5bn on high gross volume, but all of that net buying was on Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK). 
  • Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) became SOUTHBOUND-eligible on Tuesday, and mainland buyers bought US$2.1bn of BABA shares, more than total SOUTHBOUND net buys.
  • Gross volumes were highest in months. This was a big week. Even bigger than just BABA. After BABA the story was banks buying. 

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep15)- Tiantan’s New Deal, BeiGene-AbbVie Lawsuit, BIOSECURE Act Will Pass

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Tiantan plans to acquire 100% equity of Zhongyuan Ruide from CSL Behring ASIA PACIFIC LIMITED for US$185 million, so as to consolidate its leading position in blood products industry.
  • BeiGene is accused of trade secrets theft by AbbVie. Considering AbbVie is good at using legal means to profit for itself, this lawsuit may become full of uncertainty in US.
  • The House passed BIOSECURE Act to make drug companies stop doing business with Chinese CXO.The probability of this Bill passing is high. We recommend prepare for worst-case scenario in advance.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 13 Sep 2024): SB Buying of H Underperformance

By Travis Lundy

  • Repeat of last week: Miserable economic data continues. Trade geopol is mixed. Territorial geopol getting more serious. But SOUTHBOUND gross volumes way up.
  • AH Premia rose slightly as HK-listed shares outperformed mainland share indices. The HK/mainland spread is consistently better than H/A performance. It’s not clear why. This week no exception.
  • This week will see limited H/A action because of the long Mid-Autumn Festival. Hopes are high for non-durables purchases this month. Maybe even homes. But I am skeptical…

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec 24: Two Changes Possible; US$265mn Capping Flows One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in December 2024.
  • At present, we see two ADDs/DELs based on the latest available data but the rankings can change until 30th September 2024.

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Sep 15
0

Daily Brief Macro: Central Bank of Russia Hiked Key Rate to 19% as Inflation Continues to Soar and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Central Bank of Russia Hiked Key Rate to 19% as Inflation Continues to Soar
  • OPEC and EIA Cut Oil Demand Forecasts; EIA Projects Nat-Gas Rise in 2025 on Strong LNG Exports
  • FOMC: 25bps Or 50bps?

Central Bank of Russia Hiked Key Rate to 19% as Inflation Continues to Soar

By Alex Ng

  • Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced that it increased its policy rate by 100 bps to 19% to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending.
  • CBR said in a press release that the current inflationary pressures remain high, and annual inflation is likely to exceed the July forecast range of 6.5–7.0% by end-2024.
  • The regulator emphasized that growth in domestic demand is still significantly outstripping the capabilities to expand the supply of goods and services.

OPEC and EIA Cut Oil Demand Forecasts; EIA Projects Nat-Gas Rise in 2025 on Strong LNG Exports

By Suhas Reddy

  • OPEC cuts demand growth estimates for the second straight month, lowering its 2024 and 2025 forecasts by 3.8% and 2.2%, respectively, citing demand weakness in China.
  • Total production of OPEC members obliged to implement supply cuts averaged 21.48m bpd in August, exceeding the target by 1.6%.
  • EIA lowered its 2024 and 2025 oil price forecasts due to slower demand growth. However, it expects a quick recovery in prices driven by declining inventories.

FOMC: 25bps Or 50bps?

By Alex Ng

  • Looking at press reports that the September FOMC call is a close one between 25bps and 50bps does not persuade us to change our call from 25bps.
  • The slightly disappointing August CPI does not exclude a 50bps move, and that whichever option the Fed does choose for September, markets should not assume a string similar moves.
  • Economists are still looking for a more moderate 0.2% increase in August core PCE prices, with a number slightly softer before rounding possible.

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Sep 15
0

Daily Brief Australia: Evolution Mining and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade of Over US$1bn

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade of Over US$1bn

By Brian Freitas

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Sep 15
0

Daily Brief South Korea: K Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • K Bank IPO Preview
  • K-Bank’s IPO Details Out: Aggressive Pricing, but as a Crypto Play, It Might Surprise

K Bank IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • K Bank finally provided its IPO prospectus which includes more details of the IPO than what the company already announced about the IPO several days ago. 
  • Bankers used KakaoBank, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, and Bancorp Inc as comps. Average PBR of 2.56x was used to value K Bank. 
  • Some investors will question the inclusion of overseas comps including SBI Sumishin Net Bank and Bancorp in the valuation of K Bank.

K-Bank’s IPO Details Out: Aggressive Pricing, but as a Crypto Play, It Might Surprise

By Sanghyun Park

  • Compared to its overseas peers, K-Bank’s high valuation still stands out due to a significant gap in net income size relative to market cap.
  • The offering structure, with 50% secondary sales and weak lock-up commitments, means post-IPO float could spike to around 40%, making a stock price bump unlikely.
  • K-Bank’s crypto-focused model might attract investors valuing it as a crypto play, potentially influencing IPO pricing and post-listing stock performance.

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