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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Credit: Greentown China – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Greentown China – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: MGM China Holdings, Pakuwon Jati


Greentown China – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Greentown China’s FY 2023 performance was satisfactory in our view, given the above-industry sales, stable top line and acceptable (albeit reduced) gross margin. Importantly, its access to onshore financing appears healthy and liquidity is adequate. In addition, the company remains active in land acquisitions and has a good quality land bank, mostly in high-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta.

That said, leverage remained somewhat weak. Moreover, Greentown is more exposed to a prolonged industry downturn (vs. peers such as Longfor Group and China Vanke), due to its low recurring income and outsized exposure to the property development segment. This means that the company’s contracted sales and margins are likely to remain soft despite outperforming the industry. In the meantime, Greentown will likely focus on improving operating efficiency by maintaining a high sell-through rate and fast churn for its projects.

We revise our fundamental Credit Bias to “Negative” from “Stable”, and move our trade recommendation on the GRNCH 5.95 ’24s to “Buy” from “Hold” .


Morning Views Asia: MGM China Holdings, Pakuwon Jati

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: BYD (1211 HK): Strong Revenue in 2023 and to Change Strategy in 2024 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • BYD (1211 HK): Strong Revenue in 2023 and to Change Strategy in 2024
  • Micron’s Earnings and Broadcom’s Accelerators
  • Anta Sports (2020 HK):  2024 High Conviction Update – Earnings Beat In 2H23
  • [Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$351) TP Change]: Improvement of Earning Quality Should Be Sustainable
  • Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ) – On the Cusp of Breakeven
  • Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Taiwan Surges As New AI Play; But Shorts Amassing as Well
  • BABA’s Babies: They Are All Grown Up! Ali Pictures: A Blockbuster Company
  • Sinotrans (598. HK) Continues to Deliver
  • Novo Nordisk: Is the FDA Approval of Wegovy Worth an Extra $460 Bn?
  • [Meituan (3690 HK, SELL, TP HK$70) TP Change]: Margin Reflects Persistent Competitive Pressure


BYD (1211 HK): Strong Revenue in 2023 and to Change Strategy in 2024

By Ming Lu

  • Total revenue increase by 42% and automobile revenue increased by 49% in 2023.
  • The gross margin improved significantly in 2023, especially in 4Q23.
  • We believe BYD will move its focus from ‘low price for sales volume’ to ‘development of new vehicle models’.

Micron’s Earnings and Broadcom’s Accelerators

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • I wrote about this in my recent post about HBM, and it seems almost everything I talked about became true. HBM is going to bail out the memory markets meaningfully.
  • Let’s talk about earnings, but I was hoping you could keep this post in mind while I discuss Micron.
  • These are the kinds of beats we start to see when the cycle turns. Now, the stocks have begun to anticipate this, but given the pricing dynamics of HBM, I feel very confident in Micron’s ability to hit a new cycle high in profitability.


Anta Sports (2020 HK):  2024 High Conviction Update – Earnings Beat In 2H23

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • At noon time today, Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) released strong 2023 results which beat expectations. 
  • Anta currently trades at a forward PE of 18x based on estimated 2024 earnings (assuming a conservative 15% yoy growth in 2024 earnings). 
  • I expect the company’s net profit to grow 15-20% CAGR in 2024-2026.  Anta’s historical forward PE is around 24x since 2017. 

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$351) TP Change]: Improvement of Earning Quality Should Be Sustainable

By Ying Pan

  • Tencent reported C4Q23 revenue, IFRS operating profit, and non-IFRS net income in-line with our estimates and in-line with consensus, with non-game revenues exceeding while game revenue missing expectations;
  • We believe the shift from game to non-game should enhance Tencent multiples but the market might have concerns on the sustainability of this change. 
  • We believe this change is sustainable with game revenue reaccelerating and non-game revenue continues to gain weight. We cut TP by 3% to reflect slow game recovery in C1H24.

Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ) – On the Cusp of Breakeven

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ) booked a slightly weaker finish to the year than expected with a slowdown in revenue growth in 4Q2023 and a miss on adjusted EBITDA breakeven.
  • The key reason was a thinning out of non-performing specialty businesses which impacted short-term revenues but will improve revenues and adjusted EBITDA. as the focus shifts to higher take-rate businesses.
  • Bukalapak.com PT Tbk (BUKA IJ) is guiding for +15-20% revenue growth and positive adjusted EBITDA in 2024 with execution on this being paramount. Valuations remain attractive.

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Taiwan Surges As New AI Play; But Shorts Amassing as Well

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Delta Taiwan Outperforms Delta Thailand After Showcasing Its AI Power Efficiency Solutions at NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)’s GTC Conference 
  • Delta Taiwan vs. Thailand Valuation Mismatch Has Corrected Further; Delta Thailand Finally Worth Less Than Its Parent
  • Short Interest Spiked for Delta Taiwan; Taiwan Rally Short-Term Overdone Due to AI Concept Stock Hype?

BABA’s Babies: They Are All Grown Up! Ali Pictures: A Blockbuster Company

By David Mudd

  • Alibaba Pictures (1060 HK) is expanding rapidly into complimentary areas such as online ticketing of cinema and live events with the recent acquisition of  Damai.cn from parent Alibaba.
  • Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) is considering injecting other media platform assets like Youku  to realize synergies among its portfolio of companies.
  • Ali Pictures (Alipics) legacy film production business continues to expand globally with its American film production company, Amblin which is a partnership with Steven Spielberg.

Sinotrans (598. HK) Continues to Deliver

By Rikki Malik

  • Cost and business optimisations lead to increased profits as revenues drop due to freight rate declines
  • Successfully pivoting by geography as the global trading environment changes
  • The company increases its dividend payout in a sign of confidence for the future

Novo Nordisk: Is the FDA Approval of Wegovy Worth an Extra $460 Bn?

By Avien Pillay

  • FDA approval of Wegovy is overvalued at approx. $460 billion. Market exaggerated the worth without proper assessment of weight loss results and risks associated with the drug.
  • Clinical trials showed a 14.9% weight loss with diet and exercise; real-world results would be lower. Impact on BMI for obese individuals won’t be significant. Long-term use is questionable.
  • Competition in the GLP-1 market is fierce. Novo Nordisk faces challenges in India and China, increased capex spending, and risks from compounding pharmacies and potential legal issues.

[Meituan (3690 HK, SELL, TP HK$70) TP Change]: Margin Reflects Persistent Competitive Pressure

By Ying Pan

  • Meituan reported C4Q23 revenue beat our estimate/consensus by 0.7%/1.4%; operating profit beat our estimate/consensus by 37.3%/48.6%, mainly due to order volume surprise, which is unsustainable in our view.
  • However, we think Meituan’s near term pressures did not change: (1) core biz OPM drop due to rising low-price orders and subsidies; (2) resuming competition from Eleme/Douyin/PDD
  • We maintain the stock as SELL rating but raise TP by HK$13 to HK$70 to factor in the loss cutting commitment in the community group buying biz.

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Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Crisp: Larry Fink vs. Gary Gensler and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Crisp: Larry Fink vs. Gary Gensler


Crypto Crisp: Larry Fink vs. Gary Gensler

By Mads Eberhardt

  • We are witnessing an unexpected showdown in the crypto world.
  • On one side stands Larry Fink, co-founder and CEO of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager.
  • On the opposite side is Gary Gensler, the chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

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Daily Brief Macro: Energy Cable #62: Biden is selling crude straddles and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Energy Cable #62: Biden is selling crude straddles, while something is cooking in China
  • Great Game – Moscow terror, Netanyahu Furious and Biden climbing polls
  • Positioning Watch – Time to get out of the cyclical trade?
  • Ifo Nugget: What reflation in Germany?
  • EUR-flation watch: Spain is the dovish hawk
  • Vietnam Politics: Infighting Won’t Derail Economy, For Now
  • CX Daily: The countdown begins: TikTok navigates uncertain future amid U.S. ban bill


Energy Cable #62: Biden is selling crude straddles, while something is cooking in China

By Andreas Steno

  • Last week we took healthy profits in some of our global reflation bets.
  • We got out of silver and copper, but remain in the broad materials ETF.
  • Data out of China is a bit unclear with some prints being bullish and others bearish and then ambiguous data points such as the BOOMING copper stock. 

Great Game – Moscow terror, Netanyahu Furious and Biden climbing polls

By Mikkel Rosenvold

  • Welcome to this week’s Great Game.
  • We’re going to try out a slightly new format this time.
  • Instead of unfolding one major topic, we will cover a couple stories more briefly, so you are covered on the most important stories in geopolitics right now.

Positioning Watch – Time to get out of the cyclical trade?

By Andreas Steno

  • Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch! The weather in Copenhagen is sunny, and so is the mood in markets, with aggregate equity fund flows in the US reaching 2-year highs this week.
  • Markets are certainly back into full risk-on mode, with the Fed promising rate cuts amidst reflationary trends in the US, which is a trend that is slowly but surely spreading to the rest of the world.
  • The cyclical rebound is not truly there yet in Europe, which means that European indices are starting to get flagged as overpriced in our quant-models.

Ifo Nugget: What reflation in Germany?

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Price expectations in services ex. real estate continued its downtrend and we now find ourselves at 2018-19 levels in what is pointing towards lower core inflation readings in the second half of the year. 

  • Meanwhile price expectations in manufacturing climbed and looks like they have bottomed out at levels consistent with the price mandate of the ECB.

  • The drop in input prices, the global reflation story and expectations of ECB rate cuts seem to have had an effect and the question now becomes which of the two manufacturing and service price expectations will impact inflation come Summer and Fall the most.   


EUR-flation watch: Spain is the dovish hawk

By Andreas Steno

  • The preliminary European inflation numbers will be released during this week, while Germany has decided to postpone the release until after Easter.
  • We are leaning dovish relative to consensus, but due to VAT increases in Spanish electricity markets, it will not look like an outright home-run for disinflationistas in March either unless markets decide to focus on the TAX-constant HICP rates.
  • Spanish HICP (Wednesday) -> Consensus 1.4%, Steno Research 1.26% 

Vietnam Politics: Infighting Won’t Derail Economy, For Now

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • The abrupt resignation of President Thuong is a sign that a major intra-party struggle within the ruling Communist Party is underway.
  • Claims that Thuong resigned for failure to tackle corruption should be taken with more than a pinch of salt, given the politicization of the anti-corruption campaign by the party secretary-general. 
  • Pro-Growth policies will be maintained regardless of the political turnover, but prolonged turmoil will risk the country losing its moment in the sun. 

CX Daily: The countdown begins: TikTok navigates uncertain future amid U.S. ban bill

By Caixin Global

  • TikTok /Cover Story: The countdown begins: TikTok navigates uncertain future amid U.S. ban bill
  • Forum /: Premier reiterates commitment to making China a better place to do business
  • Ma Ying-jeou /: Former Taiwan leader to make first visit to Beijing

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Most Read: ZOZO Inc, Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A, Kokusai Electric , HD Hyundai Marine Solution , Globalwafers, Shinhan Financial, China Motor, Roland DG Corp, Hana Tour Service and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: DISCO, Socionext, ZOZO In; PacMetals, Sumitomo Osaka, Takara Holding Out
  • CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Despite ETF Inflows
  • TOPIX “Big April Basket” 2024 Expectations: More High-Conviction Names; Better Trade Ideas
  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Preview
  • Globalwafers GDR Offering – Coming to Market Earlier than Anticipated
  • Shinhan Financial Group Placement – Another Selldown, Momentum Is Strong but Deal Is Large
  • Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun 24: 5 Changes; US$1.2bn One-Way
  • Roland DG (6789 JP): Taiyo Hoping for the Best as Brother Plays the Waiting Game
  • Block Deal Sale of 3.6% Stake in Shinhan Financial by BNP Paribas
  • HanaTour Management Sale: Minority Shareholder Tender Offer & Price Premium Assessment


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: DISCO, Socionext, ZOZO In; PacMetals, Sumitomo Osaka, Takara Holding Out

By Brian Freitas


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Despite ETF Inflows

By Brian Freitas

  • With 85% of the review period complete, we see 11 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) in June.
  • We estimate one-way turnover of 1.2% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.3bn (US$1bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes despite large flows from the National Team into ETFs tracking the CSI 300 Index. That support for the potential deletes will reverse.

TOPIX “Big April Basket” 2024 Expectations: More High-Conviction Names; Better Trade Ideas

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation.
  • For companies with “low liquidity” the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation.
  • Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE. In this insight, we take an early look at what could happen in April 2024.

HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSPI in May 2024. This will be one of the largest IPOs in Korea in 2024. 
  • The IPO price range is from 73,300 won to 83,400 won. The IPO offering amount is from 652.4 billion won to 742.3 billion won. 
  • A key beneficiary of HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO is HD Hyundai (62% ownership). Our NAV analysis suggests implied price of 95,632 for HD Hyundai (40% higher than current price).

Globalwafers GDR Offering – Coming to Market Earlier than Anticipated

By Ethan Aw

  • Globalwafers (6488 TT) is looking to raise up to US$681m in its GDR offering. The proceeds will be used to purchase raw materials overseas.
  • The deal is a somewhat large one to digest at 20.2 days of three month ADV and the proceeds will be used to purchase raw materials overseas. 
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Shinhan Financial Group Placement – Another Selldown, Momentum Is Strong but Deal Is Large

By Sumeet Singh

  • BNP Paribas (BNP FP) is looking to raise around US$680m via selling 3.5% of its stake in Shinhan Financial (055550 KS).
  • This will be the fourth selldown for the stock since the start of the year. It will also be the largest one of the lot, so far.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun 24: 5 Changes; US$1.2bn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • I currently see 5 ADDs and 5 DELs but there are several names close to the border and expectations could change before the base date as prices move around.
  • The estimate for one-way flow in June 2024 is US$1.22bn.

Roland DG (6789 JP): Taiyo Hoping for the Best as Brother Plays the Waiting Game

By Arun George

  • In response to Roland DG Corp (6789 JP) request, on 22 March, Taiyo said it was considering a revised offer. However, Taiyo has since remained silent. 
  • Despite discussions with Brother Industries (6448 JP), the Board have not been able to eliminate dis-synergies concerns. The Board has left the decision to accept the Taiyo offer to shareholders.
  • While the Board is trying to dissuade Brother, Brother will take its offer directly to shareholders if the Taiyo offer fails. Taiyo’s behaviour suggests a reluctance to bump. 

Block Deal Sale of 3.6% Stake in Shinhan Financial by BNP Paribas

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 26 March, it was announced that BNP Paribas plans to sell its 3.6% stake in Shinhan Financial in a block deal sale 18.7 million shares). 
  • The block deal sale is estimated to be about 900 billion won, which would represent one of the largest block deal sales in Korea in the past several years.
  • We have a Negative view on the Shinhan Financial Group block deal and we would not subscribe to it due to three major reasons. 

HanaTour Management Sale: Minority Shareholder Tender Offer & Price Premium Assessment

By Sanghyun Park

  • HanaTour seeks new ownership after 4 years under IMM PE. Despite COVID-19 setbacks, successful restructuring attracts attention from online travel and investment giants.
  • Market rumors hint at Yanolja and Hotels.com interest, possibly intensifying acquisition competition, leading to a higher price premium. IMM’s 16.68% stake may value at ₩250B, a 35% premium.
  • Last year’s mandatory tender offer for 50%+1 share awaits legislation. Unlikely to affect HanaTour sale. Nonetheless, potential acquirers may buy additional shares, suggesting further premium formation in share price.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Mma Offshore, AP Moeller – Maersk A/S, Bizlink Holding, S.F. Holding, Ocean Wilsons Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • MMA Offshore: A$2.60/Share Cash Offer From Seraya Partners
  • MMA Offshore (MRM AU): A Polarising Offer from Seraya Partners
  • Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | February Spot Rates Strong | Volume Firm, Too | (March 2024)
  • Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Jun 24: TDIV Deletion Likely for Bizlink and Farglory Land
  • Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)
  • Ocean Wilsons Holdings – Strong FY23 results with strategic review in FY24


MMA Offshore: A$2.60/Share Cash Offer From Seraya Partners

By David Blennerhassett

  • Marine and subsea services provider MMA Offshore (MRM AU) has entered into a Scheme with Singapore’s Cyan Renewables. 
  • Cyan, wholly-owned by Seraya Partners, is offering A$2.60/share in cash, a 11% premium to last close and a 31% premium to the 90-day VWAP. 
  • MMA shareholder approval and FIRB are the key conditions. This Offer will tentatively complete mid-late July. 

MMA Offshore (MRM AU): A Polarising Offer from Seraya Partners

By Arun George

  • Mma Offshore (MRM AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Seraya Partners at A$2.60 per share, a 10.6% premium to the undisturbed price (22 March).
  • While the offer is attractive compared to historical prices, it is light compared to peer and historical multiples. Some shareholders are supportive, while others are not. 
  • The shares are trading at terms that suggest an expectation for a bump to get the vote up or a competing bidder. The offer has not been declared final.

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | February Spot Rates Strong | Volume Firm, Too | (March 2024)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Strong uptick in price momentum in February reflects booming spot market
  • February container throughput growth in key regions also firm, up 7.4% Y/Y
  • We suggest Short Evergreen vs Long Maersk (or ZIM) pair trade idea

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Jun 24: TDIV Deletion Likely for Bizlink and Farglory Land

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the T50 and T100 Indices for the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • I do not see any changes for the T50 index but there could be at least four changes for the T100 index based on current data.
  • If prices fluctuate significantly between now and the base date, there could be more changes.

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Headline February numbers look pretty good — but they’re misleading
  • On a combined basis, January-February data show ASPs still under pressure
  • Recent results from ZTO and J&T Global have been unimpressive, in our view

Ocean Wilsons Holdings – Strong FY23 results with strategic review in FY24

By Edison Investment Research

Ocean Wilsons Holdings’ (OCN’s) FY23 results highlight a robust performance from the Brazilian subsidiary Wilson Sons, as well as growth from the investment portfolio. Our forecasts are under review following the announcement but, prior to this, we valued OCN at 2,564p/share, which implies it is currently trading at a 48% discount. Given the strong trading and optimistic outlook, risks appear to be to the upside.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Mma Offshore, AP Moeller – Maersk A/S, Bizlink Holding, S.F. Holding, Ocean Wilsons Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • MMA Offshore: A$2.60/Share Cash Offer From Seraya Partners
  • MMA Offshore (MRM AU): A Polarising Offer from Seraya Partners
  • Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | February Spot Rates Strong | Volume Firm, Too | (March 2024)
  • Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Jun 24: TDIV Deletion Likely for Bizlink and Farglory Land
  • Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)
  • Ocean Wilsons Holdings – Strong FY23 results with strategic review in FY24


MMA Offshore: A$2.60/Share Cash Offer From Seraya Partners

By David Blennerhassett

  • Marine and subsea services provider MMA Offshore (MRM AU) has entered into a Scheme with Singapore’s Cyan Renewables. 
  • Cyan, wholly-owned by Seraya Partners, is offering A$2.60/share in cash, a 11% premium to last close and a 31% premium to the 90-day VWAP. 
  • MMA shareholder approval and FIRB are the key conditions. This Offer will tentatively complete mid-late July. 

MMA Offshore (MRM AU): A Polarising Offer from Seraya Partners

By Arun George

  • Mma Offshore (MRM AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Seraya Partners at A$2.60 per share, a 10.6% premium to the undisturbed price (22 March).
  • While the offer is attractive compared to historical prices, it is light compared to peer and historical multiples. Some shareholders are supportive, while others are not. 
  • The shares are trading at terms that suggest an expectation for a bump to get the vote up or a competing bidder. The offer has not been declared final.

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | February Spot Rates Strong | Volume Firm, Too | (March 2024)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Strong uptick in price momentum in February reflects booming spot market
  • February container throughput growth in key regions also firm, up 7.4% Y/Y
  • We suggest Short Evergreen vs Long Maersk (or ZIM) pair trade idea

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Jun 24: TDIV Deletion Likely for Bizlink and Farglory Land

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the T50 and T100 Indices for the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • I do not see any changes for the T50 index but there could be at least four changes for the T100 index based on current data.
  • If prices fluctuate significantly between now and the base date, there could be more changes.

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Headline February numbers look pretty good — but they’re misleading
  • On a combined basis, January-February data show ASPs still under pressure
  • Recent results from ZTO and J&T Global have been unimpressive, in our view

Ocean Wilsons Holdings – Strong FY23 results with strategic review in FY24

By Edison Investment Research

Ocean Wilsons Holdings’ (OCN’s) FY23 results highlight a robust performance from the Brazilian subsidiary Wilson Sons, as well as growth from the investment portfolio. Our forecasts are under review following the announcement but, prior to this, we valued OCN at 2,564p/share, which implies it is currently trading at a 48% discount. Given the strong trading and optimistic outlook, risks appear to be to the upside.


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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: HD Hyundai , Kunlun Energy, Boral Ltd, ADX Energy Ltd, Ecovyst, Pulsar Helium, Quadrise Fuels International, Delta Dunia Makmur and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Preview
  • Kunlun Energy (135 HK): Delivering Resilience
  • Boral (BLD AU): Seven Slams “Fundamentally Misleading” IE Report
  • ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Logging results at Welchau further derisk the discovery
  • ECVT: Rearranging the Year, Not Cash Flow
  • Pulsar Helium Inc. (TSX-V: PLSR): Wireline Logging Results Suggest Productive Permeable Zones
  • Quadrise – Funding the gap to commercial revenues
  • Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao, Delta Dunia Makmur


HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSPI in May 2024. This will be one of the largest IPOs in Korea in 2024. 
  • The IPO price range is from 73,300 won to 83,400 won. The IPO offering amount is from 652.4 billion won to 742.3 billion won. 
  • A key beneficiary of HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO is HD Hyundai (62% ownership). Our NAV analysis suggests implied price of 95,632 for HD Hyundai (40% higher than current price).

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): Delivering Resilience

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Kunlun Energy (135 HK)‘s 2.2% drop in core earnings in FY23 is distorted by the expiry of exploration rights of oilfield projects. All other segments have done well.  
  • FY24 outlook is positive – reduction in E&P distortion, addition of more city gas projects, higher utilisation of LNG plants and terminals, and optimisation of gas pricing mechanism.
  • Net cash of Rmb20.4bn equals 29% of market capitalisation, providing room for a higher dividend payout. A re-inclusion into the HSI is not totally out of the cards.

Boral (BLD AU): Seven Slams “Fundamentally Misleading” IE Report

By David Blennerhassett

  • In its 19th March Target Statement, Boral (BLD AU) rejected Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) cash/scrip Offer after the independent expert (IE) concluded the Offer was neither fair nor reasonable.
  • In its updated Bidder’s Statement, Seven slammed the IE report and its conclusions, calling the Target Statement “unbalanced, selective and risks fundamentally misleading Boral minority shareholders“.
  • Of interest: the IE’s maximum value for Seven’s Offer is just 1.7% below its fair valuation range. Including a control premium. Yet Seven obtained control of Boral in July 2021. 

ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Logging results at Welchau further derisk the discovery

By Auctus Advisors

  • The logging program has confirmed open fracture networks and vuggy porosity (matrix porosity) essential for well productivity coincident with hydrocarbon shows between 1346 m and 1702 m measured depth.
  • This represents 356 m of gross interval across three interpreted lithological sequences.
  • This compares with only 115 m of liquids-rich gas shows announced previously.

ECVT: Rearranging the Year, Not Cash Flow

By Hamed Khorsand

  • The macroeconomic conditions continue to pose as a tailwind for Ecovyst (ECVT) with commodity prices holding and the USA’s GDP expected to remain positive in 2024
  • ECVT faced several challenges in 2023 that should be a non-factor in 2024’s financial results. ECVT has already set expectations for a soft first half of the year
  • The scheduled maintenance cycle at oil refineries played a role in ECVT’s fourth quarter results and how ECVT is projecting 2024 to pan out

Pulsar Helium Inc. (TSX-V: PLSR): Wireline Logging Results Suggest Productive Permeable Zones

By Auctus Advisors

  • The interpretation of the wireline logs at the Jetstream #1 well at the Topaz helium project suggests a predominantly gas saturated interval between 1,650-2,200 feet containing discrete zones with productive permeability.
  • Drilling observations and log data interpretation suggest the presence of permeable zones in the form of fracture and/or vuggy porosity.
  • Good permeability is very important for flow rate.

Quadrise – Funding the gap to commercial revenues

By Edison Investment Research

Quadrise continues to advance towards commercial revenues for its innovative fuel and biofuel technologies, with each of its projects approaching key milestones in 2024. Preparatory steps for the MSC Shipmanagement (MSC) fuel trials are now complete and fuel supply agreements are nearing finalisation. Quadrise will achieve its first licensing revenues on the successful completion of Valkor’s project financing (timing uncertain). Quadrise also successfully concluded its Morocco trial, paving the way for commercial negotiations. According to management’s guidance, the potential Valkor revenue, the £1.5m gross proceeds raised in March 2024 and the £1.7m of cash (at end-December 2023) will provide Quadrise the necessary working capital resources to 31 March 2025. By then, the Morocco and Utah projects should be generating commercial revenue and the trial with MSC will be near completion.


Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao, Delta Dunia Makmur

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Xiaomi Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Bharti Hexacom, Accredify , Carta Holdings, Inc., Jumbotail Technologies Pvt , GL-Carlink Technology, Nano Dimension , NVIDIA Corp, AI Palette and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • China Consumption Weekly (25 Mar 2024): Xiaomi, Alibaba, Xpeng, Maoyan, JD Health, JD.com
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Key Taiwan Server Names Soar; Raising TSMC Growth Target; Memory Rally
  • Bharti Hexacom IPO: The Bull Case
  • Verifiable digital identity startup Accredify raises strategic funding from Okta Ventures | e27
  • 3q Follow-Up – CARTA HOLDINGS (3688 JP)
  • Jumbotail nets $18m amid tough B2B ecommerce market
  • GL-Carlink Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Nano Dimension – Growth in a tough market
  • Episode 60: Takeaways, observations, and insights from Nvidia GTC
  • Ai Palette nets US$5.8M to empower CPG brands with real-time insights into consumer trends | e27


China Consumption Weekly (25 Mar 2024): Xiaomi, Alibaba, Xpeng, Maoyan, JD Health, JD.com

By Ming Lu

  • Xiaomi released healthy financial results inspite of the shrinking market.
  • Alibaba Freshippo founder, Mr. Hou, retired from his role as the CEO of Freshippo.
  • JD began to provide aftermarket service to BYD, the largest new energy vehicle producer.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Key Taiwan Server Names Soar; Raising TSMC Growth Target; Memory Rally

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Key Taiwan Server Names Soar; Delta Electronics Major Winner of Nvidia’s Conference
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Raising Growth Target to 25%+ YoY in 2024F
  • Memory Monitor: Micron Leapfrogging Into HBM3E for AI; Nanya Lagging Peers But Poised to Benefit 

Bharti Hexacom IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Bharti Hexacom (6597372Z IN), a 70% owned subsidiary of Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN), aims to raise around US$500 million at a valuation of US$3.3-4.2 billion. 
  • The offer is a pure secondary offering. The Government of India aims to reduce its stake from 30% to 15% of outstanding shares. 
  • The bull case rests on market share gains, ARPU growth, low churn rates, improving margins, cash generation and low leverage. 

Verifiable digital identity startup Accredify raises strategic funding from Okta Ventures | e27

By e27

  • Accredify, a company that enables firms to create, issue, and manage tamper-proof verifiable credentials in Singapore, has raised an undisclosed strategic investment from US-based Okta Ventures, the investment arm of the independent identity management platform Okta.
  • Accredify will integrate Okta’s solutions, such as SSO and MFA, into its product.
  • This Series A extension round follows the Singaporean startup’s US$7 million financing in April 2023, co-led by iGlobe Partners and SIG Venture Capital, with participation from Pavilion Capital and Qualgro.

3q Follow-Up – CARTA HOLDINGS (3688 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • FY23/12 saw a strong push towards management initiatives aimed at a V-shaped recovery in financial performance.
  • On the other hand, conservative guidance was provided for FY24/12, due to the uncertain market sentiment, strategic cost increases, and the need to avoid downward revisions for three consecutive terms in the mid-year.
  • Although the stock price fell sharply after the 4Q FY23/12 earnings announcement, it has recently been recovering somewhat, perhaps fueled by the recognition and understanding of the conservatism of the guidance and the company’s true earnings potential.

Jumbotail nets $18m amid tough B2B ecommerce market

By Tech in Asia

  • B2B ecommerce startups in India and Southeast Asia have been facing challenges in scaling up their businesses after the pandemic.
  • In December 2023, Indian unicorn Udaan laid off at least 100 employees after raising US$340 million, while two months earlier, Indonesia-based Ula announced that it was also cutting jobs and transitioning out of its inventory-led FMCG distribution business.
  • However, positive news comes from B2B startup Jumbotail, which has raised US$18.2 million in an equity round.

GL-Carlink Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • GL-Carlink Technology (1818017D CH) is looking to raise >US$100m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CCBI.
  • GL-Carlink (GLC) is a connected services provider for players within the automotive aftermarket industry in China, selling in-vehicle hardware products and the provision of SaaS marketing and management services.
  • As per CIC, connected services refer to connecting vehicles with the Internet and providing comprehensive hardware products, software services, and value-added services for customers such as 4S stores. 

Nano Dimension – Growth in a tough market

By Edison Investment Research

Nano Dimension made good progress growing revenue and gross margins in FY23. The company is now focused on reducing cash burn and moving to profitability, via its Reshaping Nano initiative, and is simultaneously looking to acquire in the additive manufacturing space to consolidate its position. Nano Dimension continues to buy back shares while they trade at a discount to book value.


Episode 60: Takeaways, observations, and insights from Nvidia GTC

By The Circuit

  • Jensen Huang showcased Nvidia’s dominance in the data center during his keynote address
  • Nvidia’s new Blackwell architecture involves stitching together two monolithic cores, not using chiplets, to create a single functioning chip
  • The innovation behind Blackwell and its impact on Nvidia’s technological advancements were not fully appreciated during the event, highlighting the complexity and ingenuity of the design.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Ai Palette nets US$5.8M to empower CPG brands with real-time insights into consumer trends | e27

By e27

  • Ai Palette, a Singapore-incorporated startup enabling consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies to create products using AI and machine learning technologies, has bagged US$4 million in equity financing from local VC firm Tin Men Capital.
  • This brings the capital raised by the AI startup in the Series A extension round to US$5.8 million.
  • With the fresh funds, Ai Palette looks to expand further into the beauty & personal care and nutraceutical categories, which began development in November 2023.

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Daily Brief Financials: Resona Holdings, Longfor Properties, Far East Hospitality Trust, Bank Mandiri Persero, Root /OH and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Japanese Banks – Cash Balances and the BoJ’s Negative Interest Rate Policy Exit
  • Longfor Group – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT): Swift Effect
  • Bank Mandiri – All Cylinders Firing Strong
  • Fallacy Alarm’s Elevator Pitch Party


Japanese Banks – Cash Balances and the BoJ’s Negative Interest Rate Policy Exit

By Victor Galliano

  • The Japanese banks’ share prices have barely moved following the Bank of Japan’s exit from negative interest rates; is it largely discounted or does the continued accommodative stance instil caution? 
  • Japanese banks will benefit from 100% of their deposits at the BoJ earning 0.1%, as opposed to 40% of bank deposits which was the case up to the 20th March
  • We believe our positive recommendations are all geared into higher domestic interest rates; we highlight Resona, Mizuho and Suruga in this report for their high cash and at bank balances

Longfor Group – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Longfor Group’s FY 2023 results were acceptable in our view. The earnings decline was in line with expectations, driven by reduced revenue from the property development segment. The gross margin for property development was decent at 11%, relative to some distressed peers with negative to low single-digit gross margins. Recurring revenue from rentals and services rose by 6%, with recurring operating profit covering 1.4x of interest expense. Net debt declined marginally, supported by slightly positive FCF generation.

Liquidity was adequate, with Unrestricted Cash/ST Debt of 1.4x. We note positively that the company has been repaying some debt well in advance of maturity, possibly using cheaper and longer tenor loans backed against its commercial properties. We believe near-term default risk for Longfor is low, albeit its financial flexibility would gradually diminish as the company pledges more assets for funding.


Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT): Swift Effect

By Henry Soediarko

  • Taylor Swift concerts in Singapore has increased both hotels’ occupancy rate and daily rate
  • Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT SP) share price has not moved much since the Swift concert. 
  • There is a slim chance FEHT hotels did not participate in the upside during Swift event, but the odds are higher that FEHT hotels will participate in the upside.

Bank Mandiri – All Cylinders Firing Strong

By Daniel Tabbush

  • It’s the largest bank by assets in Indonesia, but its loan growth is about 2x the country aggregate growth rate.
  • NPL decline is stronger than most all banks in the country over the past few years, implications for credit costs are positive.
  • Boring old costs should not be ignored, especially where they are driving radical expansion of ROA.

Fallacy Alarm’s Elevator Pitch Party

By Fallacy Alarm

  • Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate shock.
  • This impulse will likely diminish over the next months. It will be replaced by a credit impulse from rate cuts, the first few of which will be very powerful.
  • Market mechanics will be accommodating. Leverage in the system is low. In fact, the pain trade is still higher.

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