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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Korea’s Short Selling Ban to Stay and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea’s Short Selling Ban to Stay, Likely Until EquiLend-Korean Version Launch
  • New Year New NISA Accounts – It’s BIG, But Not so Big
  • PICC’s (1339 HK)’s Implied Stub Plumbs New Lows As Interest Rate Cuts Bite
  • Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Mar 24: More Room Being Created for IT Names?


Korea’s Short Selling Ban to Stay, Likely Until EquiLend-Korean Version Launch

By Sanghyun Park

  • Local market information indicates potential collaboration between KRX, FSS, and KSD to create a Korean EquiLend, aiming to centralize the stock lending channel.
  • Unprecedented globally, President Yoon aims to centralize short selling. The challenge lies in mandating foreign investors to use Korea’s platform, necessitating a complex legal framework.
  • Despite the difficulty, local authorities are compelled to pursue this initiative, raising the likelihood of a Korean EquiLend. Developing strategic plans in response is imperative.

New Year New NISA Accounts – It’s BIG, But Not so Big

By Travis Lundy

  • The Kishida administration put out a Doubling Asset-Based Income Plan in 2022. The goal? To get cash savings (corporate/individual) into growth assets and increase asset-based return contribution to income.
  • The goal included doubling the number of NISA accounts, and the amount invested in the next five years. On 1 January 2024, NEW NISA account contribution totals were trebled.
  • If accounts double, and contribution totals treble, and exemptions are now permanent, investment doubling is a quasi-certainty. The question is how it turns into income-producing assets. That’s MUCH tougher.

PICC’s (1339 HK)’s Implied Stub Plumbs New Lows As Interest Rate Cuts Bite

By David Blennerhassett


Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Mar 24: More Room Being Created for IT Names?

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes for the Hang Seng Index in March 2024.
  • The index changes for the March 2024 index rebal will be announced on 16th February 2024.
  • While the Hang Seng Index selection process is highly subjective, we continue to believe that identifying eligible names and grouping them by conviction level could be a valuable exercise.

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Daily Brief Macro: Suez Watch: Massively Rising Container Freight Rates and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Suez Watch: Massively Rising Container Freight Rates, While Dry Bulk, LNG and Crude Rates More Muted
  • Macro Regime Indicator: Liquidity is everything in January
  • The Average Return Doesn’t Exist! – Most Professional Forecasters Will Be Wrong Again!


Suez Watch: Massively Rising Container Freight Rates, While Dry Bulk, LNG and Crude Rates More Muted

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Takeaways upfront: No container shipping through Suez towards Europe and price increases ahead; Energy and dry bulk shipping is still alive; Expect transportation and apparel to see price increases in Europe; Hedging 2024 portfolios with long Shipping bets and/or long Energy bets make increasing sense.
  • Happy New Year everyone! Things are escalating in the Red Sea as shipping giants such as Maersk and Hapaq-Lloyd haven’t been convinced by the military efforts in the Red Sea and have now completely avoided transporting goods from Asia to Europe through the Red Sea.
  • That can be seen in prices which have seen one-way traffic the last week. Freight rates are up >100% this week, and we hear from sources that Maersk is now suggesting an all-in rate of USD 6000 TEU.

Macro Regime Indicator: Liquidity is everything in January

By Andreas Steno

  • New month, new regime, which means a new asset allocation for the month ahead.
  • The turn of the calendar once again calls for us to assess our outlook for the 3 main variables of interest: Liquidity, inflation and growth and feed them into our Regime Model and Asset Allocation tool that spits out the Sharpe Ratio optimizing portfolio given the assumptions about the variables of interest.
  • Remember that you can feed the model with your own forecasts to see which baskets to put your eggs in.

The Average Return Doesn’t Exist! – Most Professional Forecasters Will Be Wrong Again!

By Jeroen Blokland

  • Professional forecasters, expecting a negative return of 2.5% on average for 2023, missed the S&P 500 Index by a whopping 26%.
  • And based on their 2024 forecasts, with none of them daring to expect a return of 20% or more, there is an 85% likelihood that they will be wrong again. 
  • Another 20% return on the S&P 500 Index should definitely not be ruled out. Not based on historical return data nor in a bold macro environment.

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Daily Brief Utilities: PNM Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Avangrid (Iberdrola) Terminates Merger Agreement with PNM Resources


Avangrid (Iberdrola) Terminates Merger Agreement with PNM Resources

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Iberdrola SA (IBE SM)‘s U.S. subsidiary Avangrid (AGR US) terminated its $8.3 billion deal for PNM Resources (PNM US) as it could not New Mexico regulatory approval by 31 December 2023.
  • Iberdrola lost its patience but freed up €11.5 billion from that deal, together with €5.5 billion from assets sold to the Mexican Government. That’s a lot for inorganic growth. 
  • PNM, at 9.7x EV/Fwd EBITDA, is trading in line with comparables, thus on a multiples basis there should be limited downside to the share price.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: PetroChina, Pan American Silver and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • PetroChina (857 HK): An Interesting Contrarian View
  • Pan American Silver – Adjusting valuation on Skarn


PetroChina (857 HK): An Interesting Contrarian View

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • We doubt if PetroChina (857 HK) can sustain good performance in 2024. On historical patterns, it has never sustained as one of HSI’s best-performing stocks for two consecutive years. 
  • Consensus growth forecasts of 4.4% and 4.3% for FY24-25 are likely wrong as this means FY25 will be the 5th straight year of growth. PetroChina does not behave like that. 
  • Crude oil price has got back to the end-2022 level, but PetroChina’s share price is still 50% higher. A return to their high correlation before 2023 will lead to underperformance. 

Pan American Silver – Adjusting valuation on Skarn

By Edison Investment Research

Following our short update on the La Colorada Skarn preliminary economic assessment (PEA), we are revising our valuation of Pan American Silver (PAAS) to incorporate the Skarn’s risked NPV. We have also reflected up-to-date commodity prices and lower WACC thanks to the reduction in bond yields. Overall, our valuation of PAAS increases from US$22.7 to US$23.5/share. While the stock has recently been propped up by the strong gold price, we see the upcoming publication of the FY24 outlook and FY23 results as potential additional catalysts for the shares.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Douzone Bizon, Samsung Electronics Pref Shares, Ubiquiti Inc. and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Changes with Flow & Impact
  • Gap Trades in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 1Q 2024
  • UI: New Products Surging Interest


KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Changes with Flow & Impact

By Brian Freitas


Gap Trades in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 1Q 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss numerous gap trades involving Korean preferred and common shares in 1Q 2024. 
  • The excessive gaps in the preferred and common shares of Kumho Petro Chemical, Amorepacific Corp, and Samsung Electronics could reverse in the next several months.
  • We see some attractive longer-term opportunities for Amorepacific, Doosan Fuel Cell, LG Electronics, and CJ Cheiljedang which have especially high discounts for the preferred shares versus their counterpart common shares.

UI: New Products Surging Interest

By Hamed Khorsand

  • New product introductions have historically resulted in revenue growth at Ubiquiti (UI) and fiscal second quarter 2024 (December 2023) had several of them
  • Ubiquiti has introduced a series of new products. The biggest change at Ubiquiti is the availability of paid for tech support
  • There are several products that have stood out this past quarter. Including, a new Dream Machine meant for the home, called UniFi Express. The device immediately sold out

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Daily Brief Health Care: Celltrion Pharm, I-Mab, QuantumPharm, Health Care Select Sector SPDR, Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Celltrion Pharm (068760 KS) Looks Frothy
  • Quick Ideas #6
  • Pre-IPO QuantumPharm – Good Stories May Not Be Backed up by Performance
  • Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO
  • HEC Pharma (1558 HK): Strong Performance to Continue as Flu Activity Is On Rise In China


Celltrion Pharm (068760 KS) Looks Frothy

By David Blennerhassett


Quick Ideas #6

By Turtles all the way down

  • First of all, happy new year to all my readers! May 2024 bring market beating returns for everyone.
  • Again I managed to underperform my blog stock picks by concentrating in the wrong stocks.
  • Although I still ended up over 20% for the year, it was disappointing considering I was getting close to 30% in July.

Pre-IPO QuantumPharm – Good Stories May Not Be Backed up by Performance

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The essential difference between QuantumPharm and InSilico in terms of business models is that InSilico is an end-to-end generative AI-driven biotech but QuantumPharm is more of a platform-based service provider.
  • It’s difficult for QuantumPharm to achieve significant increase in revenue scale in short time,because the service fee amount is usually not large, and it takes time to accumulate order volume.
  • If there is no substantial performance contribution, these good stories would not bring about a sustained leap in valuation. QuantumPharm’s valuation in last funding round before IPO is too expensive. 

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

By Joe Jasper

  • As the saying goes, “sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market.” That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.
  • Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard — and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)
  • Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives

HEC Pharma (1558 HK): Strong Performance to Continue as Flu Activity Is On Rise In China

By Tina Banerjee

  • Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK) is set to benefit from the recent upsurge in respiratory illness in China. The company commands ~90% share of anti-flu drug market in China.
  • In 1H23, HEC Pharma’s revenue jumped 148% YoY to RMB3.2B, mainly due to spiking flu cases in China. A strong flu season in 4Q23, should boost H2 performance.
  • Despite a 43% rally in HEC Pharma share price over the last six months, the shares are trading at forward P/E of just 4.8x.

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Daily Brief Consumer: BYD, Amorepacific Corp, Kweichow Moutai, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • BYD (1211 HK): Sales Volume Up by 62% in 2023
  • Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 1Q 2024
  • Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH):  Stability Amidst Overall Industry Weakness
  • For Increasing TOBs and MBOs, Managers Should Be Aware of Listing Costs and PE Market Should Expand


BYD (1211 HK): Sales Volume Up by 62% in 2023

By Ming Lu

  • BYD’s sales volume grew by 45% YoY in December, higher than 31% YoY in November.
  • For the whole year 2023, BYD’s total sales volume rose by 62%.
  • We conclude the stock has an upside of 74% for 2024.

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 1Q 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 1Q 2024. 
  • We highlight 38 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.
  • Of the 38 pair trades, 26 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months and 12 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.

Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH):  Stability Amidst Overall Industry Weakness

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) announced the preliminary result for FY23, with sales and net profit both up 17% yoy. 
  • The overall weak consumer sentiment in China has not spared the Chinese liquor sector, as overall Chinese liquor demand has been lukewarm. 
  • The current valuation for Moutai has become very attractive, and even if no rerating, the return is likely to be around 15% through earnings growth plus 2% from dividend yield.

For Increasing TOBs and MBOs, Managers Should Be Aware of Listing Costs and PE Market Should Expand

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Companies with large shareholders’ interests of 20% or more account for 779 of 1,784 companies in Metrical Universe. A number of companies are investment targets as TOB  and MBO candidates.
  • Companies with large shareholder influence may feel distanced from general corporate governance practices, but their interests are aligned with those of minority shareholders in terms of shareholder-oriented management.
  • For quality markets, it’s necessary to reduce the number of companies by increasing TOBs and MBOs, and to do so, managers need to be aware of the cost of listing.

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Daily Brief Financials: Jio Financial Services, HKEX, Bank Of Baroda, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Skyrocketing
  • HKEX – Worsening Property Transactions, Underscores Ailments for Hong Kong
  • Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN): Initiating Coverage – Best Value Bet Among Indian Banks
  • Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, SK Hynix, Vedanta Resources


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Skyrocketing

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearing the end of the review period, we see 6 potential changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) using the current index methodology.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 13.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 26.9bn. There will be more than 1.5x ADV to sell on nearly all deletes.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes by 35% over the last two months and some stocks are looking extremely frothy.

HKEX – Worsening Property Transactions, Underscores Ailments for Hong Kong

By Daniel Tabbush

  • HKEX (388 HK) outlook has been withering for some time, and new data on property transactions, shows that this remains weak.
  • SGX (SGX SP) in a less volatile geopolitical financial center, has a much lower market capitalization while its earnings outlook is far stronger.
  • Two major differences between these two entities is their ROE and ROA, although the former may be more relevant. SGX (SGX SP) has an ROE that is nearly 50% higher.

Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN): Initiating Coverage – Best Value Bet Among Indian Banks

By Raj Saya, CA, CFA

  • Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN)  has become the second-best PSU bank in India after SBIN, in terms of improvement in asset quality and profitability.
  • Medium-Term ROE Forecast 16% to 18%; ROA >1% consistently; Asset Quality problems receding; Strategy is to diversify loan book towards retail further and focus on improving efficiencies
  • Despite the recent rally, P/BV is cheap at 0.9x FY25e for high teen ROE business. BOB can easily re-rate to P/BV of 1.3x FY25e in the near term

Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, SK Hynix, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Most Read: WuXi XDC Cayman , Livent, BYD, Shriram Finance , Celltrion Pharm, Posco International Corporation, Amorepacific Corp, Douzone Bizon and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Allkem+Livent=Arcadium : Expected Index Flows
  • HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March
  • Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows
  • BYD (1211 HK): Sales Volume Up by 62% in 2023
  • NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: One Change, Maybe Two, Low Probability of Three
  • Celltrion Pharm (068760 KS) Looks Frothy
  • End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 41 Companies in Korea in January 2024
  • Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 1Q 2024
  • KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Changes with Flow & Impact
  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Tumble; Japan Resilient in Face of Tragedy


Allkem+Livent=Arcadium : Expected Index Flows

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday during the day, Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) shareholders approved the Scheme and Livent (LTHM US) shareholders approved the merger. The deal is done. Allkem last trades 21 Dec.
  • NEWCO starts trading 4 January in the US but the Arcadium Lithium CDIs start trading 22 Dec in Australia. S&P/ASX announced they will replace Allkem in the ASX200.
  • But I have been asked for a breakdown of flows and timing again, so I have put it into a handy table which I hope makes it less confusing.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 30 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 28 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
  • We expect 26 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 25 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
  • There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

By Travis Lundy

  • Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) saw its last day of trading on 21 December. There was large volume at the close as one major index provider gave it the boot. 
  • Another delayed their treatment at the last minute, and eliminated a cross-flow.
  • But there is still a lot of net buy flow tomorrow (3 Jan) and the next day in the US. Perhaps more than I expected. 

BYD (1211 HK): Sales Volume Up by 62% in 2023

By Ming Lu

  • BYD’s sales volume grew by 45% YoY in December, higher than 31% YoY in November.
  • For the whole year 2023, BYD’s total sales volume rose by 62%.
  • We conclude the stock has an upside of 74% for 2024.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: One Change, Maybe Two, Low Probability of Three

By Brian Freitas


Celltrion Pharm (068760 KS) Looks Frothy

By David Blennerhassett


End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 41 Companies in Korea in January 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 41 stocks in Korea in January 2024, among which 4 are in KOSPI and 37 are in KOSDAQ.
  • These 41 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in January and could underperform relative to the market.
  • Among these 41 stocks, top five market cap stocks include Posco International, Doosan Robotics, Rainbow Robotics, Qualitas Semiconductor, and PhilEnergy.

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 1Q 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 1Q 2024. 
  • We highlight 38 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.
  • Of the 38 pair trades, 26 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months and 12 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Changes with Flow & Impact

By Brian Freitas


Ohayo Japan | Stocks Tumble; Japan Resilient in Face of Tragedy

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX -0.8%, Nasdaq -1.2% extending losses for second day; Apple downgraded. 10Y yields above 4%. 
  • Today: NKY Futs -1.2% v cash. JPY143; Expect weak start to year’s trading. Oil prices up +3%
  • Japan: Earthquake aftermath disrupts retail, services, and transport; 55 confirmed dead, with widespread destruction. Despite short-term challenges, Japanese equity markets historically resilient to earthquake impacts.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 22nd): BHP and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 22nd): BHP, Wisetech Global, Woodside Energy, Telstra, Fortescue


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 22nd): BHP, Wisetech Global, Woodside Energy, Telstra, Fortescue

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 22nd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.9bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Wisetech Global, Woodside Energy, Telstra, Fortescue, Macquarie, Allkem, Santos.

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