Daily Briefs

On the 10th May, Aussie lithium miner Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) inked a $US10bn+ “merger of equals” with Livent (LTHM US), ostensibly forming the world’s fifth largest lithium producer.
Allkem’s Scheme Meeting is the 19 December, with implementation expected on the 4 January. The IE is supportive and Allkem’s board unanimously recommends the transaction.
This looks done. Buy Livent. And get borrow on Livent to be able to short it into the inclusion or in the days following.

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Nov 11

Daily Brief South Korea: HD Hyundai and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Asian Dividend Gems: HD Hyundai

Asian Dividend Gems: HD Hyundai

By Douglas Kim

On 10 November, it was announced that Ki-Sun Chung was promoted to Vice Chairman which could signal more positive news flow on HD Hyundai in the coming months.
The consensus expects DPS of 4,200 won for HD Hyundai in 2023, which suggests a dividend yield of 7.1%. HD Hyundai has one of the highest dividend yields in KOSPI200.
According to our NAV analysis, it suggests a base case valuation of 71,970 won per share for HD Hyundai, representing a 22% upside from current levels.

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Nov 11

Daily Brief Singapore: MGM China Holdings, XP Power Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

Weekly Wrap – 10 Nov 2023
XP Power – Fully funded for medium-term growth

Weekly Wrap – 10 Nov 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

and more…

XP Power – Fully funded for medium-term growth

By Edison Investment Research

With weaker end demand than originally expected in Q323, XP Power’s trading update confirmed a lower outlook for FY23 operating profit and a consequent rise in net debt. To mitigate the risk of hitting debt covenants, the company has initiated a series of cost and cash saving measures, renegotiated its debt covenants and undertaken a fundraise. With revised debt covenants in place and reduced gearing, we believe XP is now well positioned for growth as end market conditions improve.

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Nov 11

Daily Brief United States: OpenAI, Arlo Technologies Inc, Qualcomm Inc, MariMed, Bakkt, Iridium Communications, AEye and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Unpacking First Mover OpenAI. Can It Avoid the Fate of Netscape and MySpace?
Key Takeaways from OpenAI DevDay
ARLO: Picture of One Word, Buy
Qualcomm Sees No Threat From Huawei-Developed Chips, CEO Says
MariMed, Inc. – 3Q23 Revenue Exceeds Estimates; Adjusted EBITDA In Line
UPDATE NOTE – Bakkt Holdings, Inc.
IRDM: QCOM Partnership Terminated
AEye, Inc. – 3Q23 Earnings Show Expenses Now in Line with Automotive-First Strategy

Unpacking First Mover OpenAI. Can It Avoid the Fate of Netscape and MySpace?

By Pranay Yadav

First mover advantage is half-truth. For every academic study proving that first-mover advantages exist, there is a study proving they do not.
Engineers at OpenAI, scaled up a special machine learning method using large data sets to create GPT or “Generative Pre-trained Transformer.”
Launch of ChatGPT has put OpenAI revenues on steroids with reports suggesting USD 1.3B this year (versus USD 28 million before ChatGPT was rolled out).

Key Takeaways from OpenAI DevDay

By Pranay Yadav

OpenAI held its first developer conference on November 6th. The event announced the launch of OpenAI’s latest model and feature upgrades.
The latest OpenAI model, GPT-4 Turbo offers drastically lower costs, updated knowledge cutoff, better vision and voice support, and improved API.
Event unveiled custom chatbots called GPTs for specific applications, showcasing expanded domain knowledge. They’ll be sold in a digital store, adding a new revenue stream for OpenAI.

ARLO: Picture of One Word, Buy

By Hamed Khorsand

ARLO reported third quarter results underscoring the continued growth in paid subscribers leading the Company to another quarter of positive free cash flow.
ARLO has maintained its rate of quarterly net subscriber adds throughout 2023 and is poised to cross 3 million paid subscribers by the middle of 2024.
ARLO reported third quarter revenue of $130.0 million compared to our forecast of $127.5 million.

Qualcomm Sees No Threat From Huawei-Developed Chips, CEO Says

By Caixin Global

Qualcomm Inc.’s handset chip business in China will not be affected by Huawei’s push for semiconductor self-sufficiency, said chief executive Cristiano Amon.
Despite Huawei’s return to the mobile arena spotlight with an in-house chip, the growth trajectory of Qualcomm’s business with Android handset-makers in China will remain unchanged, according to Amon on a post-earnings call on Wednesday.
Chief Financial Officer Akash Palkhiwala cited an estimated jump of more than 35% in chip sales to Chinese smartphone-makers in and outside China for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023.

MariMed, Inc. – 3Q23 Revenue Exceeds Estimates; Adjusted EBITDA In Line

MariMed report 3Q revenue of $38.8 million, which was slightly ahead of our estimate of $38.5 million.
This represents a 6.3% increase Q/Q and a 14.4% improvement Y/Y.
The revenue increase was driven primarily by Maryland. MariMed has a dispensary in Annapolis that converted to adult-use on July 1 and sales grew 88% Q/Q.

UPDATE NOTE – Bakkt Holdings, Inc.

On November 9, Bakkt announced the expansion of its international footprint and custody client base.
Key to its international efforts is expectations to be live with crypto capabilities across new Latin American, European, and Asian markets by year-end.
CEO Gavin Michael said the company was “working efficiently to expand into international regions with more regulatory clarity and sizeable addressable markets.”

IRDM: QCOM Partnership Terminated

By Hamed Khorsand

IRDM has announced the termination of its partnership with Qualcomm (QCOM). The news is disappointing, but not a surprise.
IRDM has not included revenue from the partnership within its guidance for 2023 nor its 2030 free cash flow target
We were hopeful QCOM was looking to make a bigger splash at CES in January 2024 with a new update

AEye, Inc. – 3Q23 Earnings Show Expenses Now in Line with Automotive-First Strategy

3Q23 revenue of $0.2 million was slightly below expectations, but EPS was slightly better than expected at a loss of $0.05 versus consensus of a loss of $0.06.
CEO Matt Fisch said, “the lidar market has shifted from a ‘battle for the best technology’ to a ‘battle for the best path to commercialization.’”
Fisch continues to be bullish and upbeat as AEye’s technology continues to win awards.

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Nov 11

Daily Brief Japan: Renesas Electronics, Shidax Corp, Olympus Corp, Softbank Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Renesas Clean-Up Block Trade – Overhang Out of The Way And Time To Own Again
Shidax (4837) – Nikkei Scoops MBO (Anncmt Post-Close), Family Wants to Buy at ¥800 Which Is Too Low
Olympus (7733) – OP Hit but Additional Buyback; Positive Dynamics but Flow Risks Persist
Softbank (9984 JP): WeWork Hangover and Other Challenges

Renesas Clean-Up Block Trade – Overhang Out of The Way And Time To Own Again

INCJ made a lot of money on Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) over the years and arguably did a great job helping the firm change direction. Now they are out.
Last night they launched a block sale through JPM and Bof A for 130.2317mm shares. They priced the heavily-oversubscribed deal at a discount of 8% or ¥2143/share.
That’s a big discount (so bad broking) for such oversubscription on a clearly-flagged deal but now they are out.

Shidax (4837) – Nikkei Scoops MBO (Anncmt Post-Close), Family Wants to Buy at ¥800 Which Is Too Low

13mos ago I wrote about Shidax Corp (4837 JP) which an interesting restructuring past and a refreshing governance outlook going forward in Shidax Outlook May Change – Better Governance Matters.
The stock was up 25% in that period to yesterday. Today, a Nikkei article mid-day suggests the Shida family will launch an MBO. Stock popped. Earnings out after the close.
The article suggests a take-private MBO with Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) again supporting the deal. 30 minutes ago Shidax responded saying an offer was put forth at ¥800/share.

Olympus (7733) – OP Hit but Additional Buyback; Positive Dynamics but Flow Risks Persist

Yesterday, Olympus Corp (7733 JP) announced Q2 earnings which were trifle light, and announced a sharp downward revision to full-year OP despite higher revs on weaker yen.
OP takes a hit because of expenses related to the shutdown of Veran Medical device sales (announced 6 Sep, “causing” a 2.4% share price fall the next day).
They also announced an ¥80bn buyback. That should be worth 3.0-3.5% of shares out, but overhang exists. The label is the label. The details are inside. They matter.

Softbank (9984 JP): WeWork Hangover and Other Challenges

By Victor Galliano

Softbank’s exposure to WeWork continues to haunt it beyond the close of 2QFY23, due to its credit support agreements
Aside from WeWork, we continue to see risks to valuations supporting the NAV; in particular, Arm Holdings and SVF2 which accounted for 45% of group equity value
Softbank shares trade at a 45% discount to the stated NAV yet there is downside risk to Arm’s valuation along with questions over private company valuations at SVF1 and SVF2

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Nov 11

Daily Brief China: Tencent, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, KE Holdings , MGM China Holdings, Country Garden Holdings Co, Hang Seng Index and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

[Tencent(700 HK,BUY,TP HK$425)Target Price Change]: International Game and Advertising Drove Results
SMIC (981.HK): Probably A Double U-Shape Correction for Around 2 Years Until the End of 2024F.
HHGrace. Yikes! Things Just Got Really Ugly
[KE Holdings (BEKE US,BUY,TP US$24.5)TP Change]:Steady Recovery with Catalysts for Market Share Gain
Weekly Wrap – 10 Nov 2023
Country Garden : Jungle Rather than Garden
EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Santa Rally?

[Tencent(700 HK,BUY,TP HK$425)Target Price Change]: International Game and Advertising Drove Results

By Eric Wen

We expect that Tencent’s C3Q23’s revenue/non-IFRS operating profit/IFRS net income to be 2.3%/3.3%/4.2% above consensus.
We raised estimates of Tencent’s international game growth to 12% YoY to reflect the success. We also expect Tencent’s advertising business to benefit from e-commerce advertisers’ competition.
We raised the Target Price to HK$425, which implies 22.4X PE in 2024.

SMIC (981.HK): Probably A Double U-Shape Correction for Around 2 Years Until the End of 2024F.

By Patrick Liao

Based on the some judgments, SMIC consider it will be relatively flat demand in 2024F.
SMIC took into consideration geopolitical instability and allowed equipment vendors to submit orders in advance.
Currently, only a few manufacturers are stockpiling smartphones in response to this wave. The overall industry remains relatively stable.

HHGrace. Yikes! Things Just Got Really Ugly

By William Keating

Revenues of US$568.5 million, down 10% sequentially and down 9.7% YoY, at the bottom of the previously guided range.
Net loss of $25.8 million compared to a profit of $7.8 million in the previous quarter and $65.5 million in the year ago period.
With current quarter gross margins in the 2-5% range, HHGrace has flipped from best in class in H123 to the worst in class now.

[KE Holdings (BEKE US,BUY,TP US$24.5)TP Change]:Steady Recovery with Catalysts for Market Share Gain

By Eric Wen

KE Holdings’ (Beike) C3Q23 revenue was 7.7%/11.6% higher than our est./cons., non-GAAP net income beat our est./cons. by 35%/119%. Existing home sales and non-transaction biz drove the bottom line beat.
We expect Beike C4Q23 to grow 20% YoY, 33% in existing home and 5% in new home, supported by gradual recovery of home transaction and Beike’s market share gain;
We reiterate BUY rating and raised TP by US$0.5 to US$24.5/ADS, also taking into account of progress in home renovation and rental management.

Weekly Wrap – 10 Nov 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

and more…

Country Garden : Jungle Rather than Garden

By Warut Promboon

Reuters reported on 8-November that China’s State Council has asked the Guangdong local government to arrange the rescue of Country Garden Holding.
Ping An’s spokesperson said the company had not been approached by the government.
There is also no guarantee on when bondholders will get paid back and how much the recovery value will be.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Santa Rally?

By Simon Harris

Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

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Nov 11

Most Read: Renesas Electronics, Boustead Plantations, Zeekr, Hollysys Automation Technologies, Eoptolink Technology , Ps Mitsubishi Construction, Allkem Ltd, Shidax Corp, Olympus Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): INCJ Clean Up; Index Buying Smaller than Expected
Boustead Plantations (BPLANT MK): LTAT Emerges as a White Knight
Zeekr IPO Early Look – Possibly US$0 to US$7bn Revenue in Under Three Years
Hollysys: Court Injunction Hearing Is Key
ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Time for a Turnaround
P.S. Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP): Taisei’s Partial Tender Offer
Renesas Clean-Up Block Trade – Overhang Out of The Way And Time To Own Again
Allkem/Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote
Shidax (4837) – Nikkei Scoops MBO (Anncmt Post-Close), Family Wants to Buy at ¥800 Which Is Too Low
Olympus (7733) – OP Hit but Additional Buyback; Positive Dynamics but Flow Risks Persist

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): INCJ Clean Up; Index Buying Smaller than Expected

By Brian Freitas

INCJ is selling the last of its stake in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP). This will remove the overhang but could lead to selling in the short-term.
Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) has outperformed its peers over the last couple of years but valuations are in-line with the peer group (or slightly cheaper).
The float increase in global indices will coincide with the offering, but the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) float increase will take quite a while.-

Boustead Plantations (BPLANT MK): LTAT Emerges as a White Knight

By Arun George

Boustead Plantations (BPLANT MK) shares have been on a rollercoaster ride. As Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK MK) pulls its offer, LTAT has emerged as an unlikely white knight.
LTAT aims to launch a general offer at RM1.55 per share, in line with KLK’s aborted MGO price. The government will backstop LTAT’s funding for the offer.
LTAT is vague on approvals and timing. Regulatory approvals should be a formality as LTAT is the Armed Forces pension fund. At the last close, the gross spread was 10.7%.

Zeekr IPO Early Look – Possibly US$0 to US$7bn Revenue in Under Three Years

By Sumeet Singh

Zeekr, a premium EV brand by Geely, aims to raise around US$1bn (estimated) in its US listing in 1H2023. GS, BofA and MS are said to be running the deal.
Zeekr was formed in Mar 2021 as a JV between Geely and its founder. Its first model was launched in Apr 21 with deliveries starting in Oct 21.
In this note, we take an early look at the IPO based on publicly avaiable information.

Hollysys: Court Injunction Hearing Is Key

Talk about your never-ending story. I count at least seven non-binding Offers for Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) since December 2020, three of which are still on the table.
The latest, at US$26/share, was pitched earlier this week from Ascendent Capital Partners; who along with Changli Wang, Hollysys’ founder, previously made an US$23/share Offer in August 2021.
However, all these Offers are largely moot until we get closure at the court injunction hearing. If that occurs. Separately, I had a solid discussion with Hollysys’ IR.

ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Time for a Turnaround

By Brian Freitas

With the review period complete, we forecast 9 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX EQUITY) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in December.
Some of the potential adds will also have passive flows from the CSI Smallcap 500 Index trackers at the same time as the ChiNext Index rebalance.
The potential adds have slipped a lot versus the potential deletes over the last few months as the National Team has tried to stabilise the market via ETF creations.

P.S. Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP): Taisei’s Partial Tender Offer

By Arun George

Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP)/PSMIC announced a partial tender offer for Taisei Corp (1801 JP) at JPY1,010 per share, a 22.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
The partial offer is for a minimum of 20.4 million shares (42.94% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 23.8 million shares (50.20% ownership ratio).
Irrevocables represent a 42.94% ownership ratio, satisfying the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is attractive and represents a ten-year high. The tender offer runs from 10 November to 11 December.

Renesas Clean-Up Block Trade – Overhang Out of The Way And Time To Own Again

INCJ made a lot of money on Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) over the years and arguably did a great job helping the firm change direction. Now they are out.
Last night they launched a block sale through JPM and Bof A for 130.2317mm shares. They priced the heavily-oversubscribed deal at a discount of 8% or ¥2143/share.
That’s a big discount (so bad broking) for such oversubscription on a clearly-flagged deal but now they are out.

Allkem/Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote

On the 10th May, Aussie lithium miner Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) inked a $US10bn+ “merger of equals” with Livent (LTHM US), ostensibly forming the world’s fifth largest lithium producer.
Allkem’s Scheme Meeting is the 19 December, with implementation expected on the 4 January. The IE is supportive and Allkem’s board unanimously recommends the transaction.
This looks done. Buy Livent. And get borrow on Livent to be able to short it into the inclusion or in the days following.

Shidax (4837) – Nikkei Scoops MBO (Anncmt Post-Close), Family Wants to Buy at ¥800 Which Is Too Low

13mos ago I wrote about Shidax Corp (4837 JP) which an interesting restructuring past and a refreshing governance outlook going forward in Shidax Outlook May Change – Better Governance Matters.
The stock was up 25% in that period to yesterday. Today, a Nikkei article mid-day suggests the Shida family will launch an MBO. Stock popped. Earnings out after the close.
The article suggests a take-private MBO with Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) again supporting the deal. 30 minutes ago Shidax responded saying an offer was put forth at ¥800/share.

Olympus (7733) – OP Hit but Additional Buyback; Positive Dynamics but Flow Risks Persist

Yesterday, Olympus Corp (7733 JP) announced Q2 earnings which were trifle light, and announced a sharp downward revision to full-year OP despite higher revs on weaker yen.
OP takes a hit because of expenses related to the shutdown of Veran Medical device sales (announced 6 Sep, “causing” a 2.4% share price fall the next day).
They also announced an ¥80bn buyback. That should be worth 3.0-3.5% of shares out, but overhang exists. The label is the label. The details are inside. They matter.

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Nov 11

Daily Brief Industrials: WT Microelectronics, XP Power Ltd, AEye and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

WT Microelectronics Placement – Wouldn’t Be Difficult to Digest
XP Power – Fully funded for medium-term growth
AEye, Inc. – 3Q23 Earnings Show Expenses Now in Line with Automotive-First Strategy

WT Microelectronics Placement – Wouldn’t Be Difficult to Digest

By Ethan Aw

WT Microelectronics (3036 TT) major shareholder, WPG Holdings (3702 TT), seeks to raise up to approximately NT5.15bn (US$159m) through a secondary block deal, selling approximately 40m shares (4.5% of TSO).
The deal is a small one to digest at 3.6 days of three month ADV and 4.1% of current mcap.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

XP Power – Fully funded for medium-term growth

By Edison Investment Research

AEye, Inc. – 3Q23 Earnings Show Expenses Now in Line with Automotive-First Strategy

3Q23 revenue of $0.2 million was slightly below expectations, but EPS was slightly better than expected at a loss of $0.05 versus consensus of a loss of $0.06.
CEO Matt Fisch said, “the lidar market has shifted from a ‘battle for the best technology’ to a ‘battle for the best path to commercialization.’”
Fisch continues to be bullish and upbeat as AEye’s technology continues to win awards.

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Nov 11

Daily Brief Industrials: WT Microelectronics, XP Power Ltd, AEye and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

WT Microelectronics Placement – Wouldn’t Be Difficult to Digest
XP Power – Fully funded for medium-term growth
AEye, Inc. – 3Q23 Earnings Show Expenses Now in Line with Automotive-First Strategy

WT Microelectronics Placement – Wouldn’t Be Difficult to Digest

By Ethan Aw

WT Microelectronics (3036 TT) major shareholder, WPG Holdings (3702 TT), seeks to raise up to approximately NT5.15bn (US$159m) through a secondary block deal, selling approximately 40m shares (4.5% of TSO).
The deal is a small one to digest at 3.6 days of three month ADV and 4.1% of current mcap.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

XP Power – Fully funded for medium-term growth

By Edison Investment Research

AEye, Inc. – 3Q23 Earnings Show Expenses Now in Line with Automotive-First Strategy

3Q23 revenue of $0.2 million was slightly below expectations, but EPS was slightly better than expected at a loss of $0.05 versus consensus of a loss of $0.06.
CEO Matt Fisch said, “the lidar market has shifted from a ‘battle for the best technology’ to a ‘battle for the best path to commercialization.’”
Fisch continues to be bullish and upbeat as AEye’s technology continues to win awards.

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Nov 11

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Allkem Ltd, HD Hyundai and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Allkem/Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote
Asian Dividend Gems: HD Hyundai

Allkem/Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote