Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO: Listing in October and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO: Listing in October, TPX Inclusion in November, Global Indices Later
  • SK Square: Updated NAV Analysis Amid Potential Sale of 11st to Alibaba
  • Intage Holdings (4326 JP): NAVF Selldown and Proration for NTT’s Partial Offer
  • A Proactive Long Short Basket Setup Targeting KOSPI Size Index’s Next Rebal
  • KRX Plans to Introduce Float Market Cap & Extreme Price Increases to KOSPI 200 Screening
  • Costa Backs Paine Schwartz’s Lower Bid
  • Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Dec 23: Dechra, Network International, and Other Potential Changes


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO: Listing in October, TPX Inclusion in November, Global Indices Later

By Brian Freitas

  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 25 October.
  • At the reported indicative IPO price of JPY 1890/share, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) will be valued at JPY 435bn (US$2.94bn).
  • The stock should be added to the TPX INDEX at the close on 29 November where trackers will need to buy over 14% of the stock issued in the IPO.

SK Square: Updated NAV Analysis Amid Potential Sale of 11st to Alibaba

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide an updated valuation analysis of SK Square (402340 KS) amid a potential sale of 11st to Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US).
  • Our NAV analysis of SK Square suggests NAV of 9.2 trillion won or NAV per share of 65,069 won, representing a 55% upside from current levels.
  • If SK Square is able to sell its stake in 11st to Alibaba, the capital inflow from the sale could be used to raise dividends and complete more share buybacks. 

Intage Holdings (4326 JP): NAVF Selldown and Proration for NTT’s Partial Offer

By Arun George


A Proactive Long Short Basket Setup Targeting KOSPI Size Index’s Next Rebal

By Sanghyun Park

  • We need to focus on the top 2 candidates among the Mid→Large candidates in the screening table mentioned above and the bottom 4 candidates among the Large→Mid candidates.
  • Since they are relatively far from the borderline, there is a significant likelihood that their classification will change. So, flow trading timing on these candidates could be brought forward.
  • Monitoring Doosan Robotics’s market cap potentially nearing ₩3T and keeping an eye on the listing date of Ecopro Materials, we should make changes to the Mid→Large candidates from early December.

KRX Plans to Introduce Float Market Cap & Extreme Price Increases to KOSPI 200 Screening

By Sanghyun Park

  • In addition to full market cap and trading value, float-adjusted market cap will be added as a quantitative screening tool. 
  • Regarding extreme price increases, KRX plans to utilize the deviation between the average daily market capitalizations for two, three, and six months leading up to the screening base date.
  • We should consider designing trading setups that target stocks with relatively low free-float rates and high price volatility in recent months.

Costa Backs Paine Schwartz’s Lower Bid

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 18 September, Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) announced A$3.20/share best and final Offer from Paine Schwartz Partners (PSP) down from the A$3.50/share NBIO in July.
  • Costa’s shares wobbled – would they, won’t they be supportive? A break price beyond the undisturbed price loomed. Vanguard kicked out a chunk of shares below A$3.
  • This morning Costa and PSP entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed. The transaction is expected to close in 1Q24. Key conditions are Costa’s shareholder vote and FIRB/SAMR/EU approval. 

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Dec 23: Dechra, Network International, and Other Potential Changes

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
  • There could be a couple of intra-review changes in the next 2-3 months but the intra-review replacement names could depend on the timing of these changes.
  • Separately, I see one regular ADD and DELETE for F250 in December 2023 but many names are close to the border and index change expectations could change if prices fluctuate.

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Daily Brief ECM: Midea A/H Listing – Early Look – Probably Raising Acquisition Currency and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Midea A/H Listing – Early Look – Probably Raising Acquisition Currency
  • Barito Renewables IPO – Power Producer with Stable Cash Flows


Midea A/H Listing – Early Look – Probably Raising Acquisition Currency

By Sumeet Singh

  • Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH), one of the world’s largest home appliance producers, aims to raise up to  US$5bn in its H-share listing.
  • Midea Group is one of the world’s largest home appliance manufacturing companies with a presence in over 200 countries. Its A-shares have been listed since 2013.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Barito Renewables IPO – Power Producer with Stable Cash Flows

By Ethan Aw

  • Barito Renewables (2306028D IJ) is looking to raise around US$228m in its Indonesian IPO. 
  • Barito Renewables (BR) is Indonesia’s largest geothermal power producer, and the third-largest globally by installed capacity, as per the firm. 
  • Its revenue has been primarily driven by electricity and steam sales to PLN as PGE’s exclusive contractor and its profitability has been on the rise over the track record period.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan: Risk-Off as Rates Hit Decade High; JapanX – Prime Market Slims Down and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan: Risk-Off as Rates Hit Decade High; JapanX – Prime Market Slims Down
  • US Banks – Added $122bn Cash In Past 2 Weeks | Loans up $31bn | CRE Loans Down | Deposits up $113bn
  • [Blue Lotus Entertainment Sector Update]: What Change Can Mate 60 Bring to Games and Apps
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 15-21 September 2023
  • China TMT Update-NIO/LI/XPEV/BEKE/NIO-Xpeng G9/Guangzhou Lift Purchase Restrictions/NIO Chip
  • [Blue Lotus Hardware Sector Update]: SMIC 7nm and 5nm Sufficient for Huawei Rejuvenation


Ohayo Japan: Risk-Off as Rates Hit Decade High; JapanX – Prime Market Slims Down

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS: SPX -1.6% as Treasury yields reached a 16-year high of 4.49%; labour market remains tight
  • JAPAN: NKY Futures -1.6% v cash, JPY 147.5; Sankyo to buy back 17% of outstanding shares; NTV to buy Studio Ghibli
  • JAPAN X: More mid-sized companies moving to TSE Standard Index after failing market cap threshold. 

US Banks – Added $122bn Cash In Past 2 Weeks | Loans up $31bn | CRE Loans Down | Deposits up $113bn

By Daniel Tabbush

  • De-Risking is well in place in weekly balance sheet for US banks. Cash rose USD122bn in past 2 weeks, loans rose USD31bn, and deposits rose USD113bn. CRE loans are down.
  • US banks’ LDR was rising a lot, from 58.6% low in week of 15 December 2021 to 69.3% in the most recent week’s data; they do not want the money.
  • The increase in large time deposits, which cost more than other deposits, is now 82.8% YoY in the most recent week; this YoY growth was 71.0% just 9 weeks earlier.

[Blue Lotus Entertainment Sector Update]: What Change Can Mate 60 Bring to Games and Apps

By Shawn Yang

  • Blue Lotus expects Huawei’s smartphone shipment market share to grow 5ppt in 2024, of which 2ppt from Apple and 1.5ppt from Honor;
  • The impacts are mainly two: (1) Huawei Appstore’s unique revenue share for games and apps, (2) Opportunity to recommend new games and apps through preinstallation;
  • We see the biggest positive impact on subscription-based video apps and the biggest negative impact on mobile games. We reiterate our Top Pick in iQIYI.

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 15-21 September 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

China TMT Update-NIO/LI/XPEV/BEKE/NIO-Xpeng G9/Guangzhou Lift Purchase Restrictions/NIO Chip

By Shawn Yang

  • NIO/LI/XPEV:Xpeng G9 facelift price cut exceeds expectations ( -/ -/ +)
  • Real Estate Industry Update: Guangzhou lift purchase restrictions in outer regions, and property transaction activities are ramping sequentially(+)
  • NIO:NIO released a self-developed chip, automotive operating system SkyOS , and NIO Phone(+)

[Blue Lotus Hardware Sector Update]: SMIC 7nm and 5nm Sufficient for Huawei Rejuvenation

By Shawn Yang

  • We estimate that SMICs 7nm yield is >70% with capacity of 19k 7nm wafers per month.  We expect SMIC will be able to ship 5nm by 2026 .
  • We expect Huawei’s wafer demand to reach 18k~ 7nm per month, which would have revenue gain of US$ 550mn~ per quarter to SMIC. We raise SMIC TP to HK$ 27.
  • We expect Huawei to reach 18% share of the China smartphone market in 2024. We expect Apple and Xiaomi’s China market share to decline by 2ppt and 0.8ppt YoY, respectively.

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Daily Brief Macro: Understanding Oil Price Shocks: What to Expect from Asset Class Returns? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Understanding Oil Price Shocks: What to Expect from Asset Class Returns?
  • Japan Watch: How will Ueda cope with all of the “pauses”?
  • China’s Slow-Burning Financial Crisis Worsens Amid Persistent Overcapacity
  • China Housing – And The Sum Of All Tiers [Webinar Presentation Video]
  • Energy Watch: Time for Nat Gas to Outshine Oil?
  • EM by EM #22 The Good, the bad and the ugly
  • BoE: Fine Balance Falls Down


Understanding Oil Price Shocks: What to Expect from Asset Class Returns?

By Jeroen Blokland

  • We examine asset class performance over 1, 2, 3, and 6 months after a 15%+ oil price increase in one month and a 25%+ spike in three months.
  • Historically, oil price shocks were not detrimental to stocks. Returns were positive for all periods after the shock. More importantly, returns were higher after oil shocks than the ‘normal’ 
  • Gold also outperformed, and interestingly, oil continued to spike, causing additional headaches for central banks. Mainly since spiking oil prices are indeed reflected in higher inflation.

Japan Watch: How will Ueda cope with all of the “pauses”?

By Andreas Steno

  • The Japanese market is always puzzling for Western investors, even if they are seldom overly involved in it unless they borrow in JPY for FX carry trading.
  • Let’s take the conclusions up front:– The BoJ is en route for the largest-ever nominal purchase of JGBs in 2023 despite “policy normalization” efforts, which is a large discrepancy to the narrative that they are actually tightening.
  • They are NOT from a balance sheet perspective.

China’s Slow-Burning Financial Crisis Worsens Amid Persistent Overcapacity

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • Persistent overcapacity in industry and real-estate has resulted in a spreading crisis among  shadow-banks, as many of them begin defaulting on investment products (pseudo-deposits). Moral hazard rules out government rescues. 
  • As global supply chains abandon China-centricity, exports continue losing global market share. But with domestic demand weak, the annualized trade surplus is US$900bn, much of it leaking as capital flight. 
  • FAI is decelerating (adjusting to industrial capacity). Shrinking working age population requires productivity to be main driver of growth. Japanified decade ahead likely, but with RGDP growth settling at 3%. 

China Housing – And The Sum Of All Tiers [Webinar Presentation Video]

By Robert Ciemniak

  • We hosted a Real Estate Foresight Webinar on Sep 20, with our latest take on China’s housing markets after the recent policy easing wave
  • Can we see the impact of the policy easing? How much of further stimulus to expect? What will be the ‘next normal’ for new home sales after the downturn?
  • A quick poll of the participants (experienced professionals in China property) showed a 100% consensus that more easing will be needed to trigger a rebound in new home sales

Energy Watch: Time for Nat Gas to Outshine Oil?

By Andreas Steno

  • Back at the office after spending time with clients in the energy space with loads of discussions around the intersphere between Macro and energy markets.
  • The mood is obviously upbeat and the sell-side consensus is getting relatively crowded in calls for a higher oil price.
  • Where were these people 2-3 months ago?

EM by EM #22 The Good, the bad and the ugly

By Emil Moller

  • EM’s are desperate for a weaker USD and may see some brief yet necessary breathing room from the pending US Government Shutdown.
  • But don’t count on it making much of a difference.
  • A bottoming in China may present some relief to relevant trade partners

BoE: Fine Balance Falls Down

By Phil Rush

  • The BoE MPC’s September decision was thrown into doubt by the low CPI print. It divided 5:4 and erred on the side of no change, contrary to most expectations.
  • Weaker activity data gained emphasis while looking through surging average earnings data that it didn’t believe. Potential payback could easily turn this hold into a pause.
  • Four members already favour higher rates, and another four saw their no-change votes as finely balanced. So at least the HR hurdle to a November hike seems small.

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Daily Brief Australia: Costa Group Holdings and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Costa Backs Paine Schwartz’s Lower Bid


Costa Backs Paine Schwartz’s Lower Bid

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 18 September, Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) announced A$3.20/share best and final Offer from Paine Schwartz Partners (PSP) down from the A$3.50/share NBIO in July.
  • Costa’s shares wobbled – would they, won’t they be supportive? A break price beyond the undisturbed price loomed. Vanguard kicked out a chunk of shares below A$3.
  • This morning Costa and PSP entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed. The transaction is expected to close in 1Q24. Key conditions are Costa’s shareholder vote and FIRB/SAMR/EU approval. 

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Daily Brief South Korea: SK Square , Hanwha Systems Co Ltd, LG Corp, Kum Yang and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • SK Square: Updated NAV Analysis Amid Potential Sale of 11st to Alibaba
  • A Proactive Long Short Basket Setup Targeting KOSPI Size Index’s Next Rebal
  • LG Corp: Updated NAV Analysis & Outperformance Likely Driven by Value Investors
  • KRX Plans to Introduce Float Market Cap & Extreme Price Increases to KOSPI 200 Screening


SK Square: Updated NAV Analysis Amid Potential Sale of 11st to Alibaba

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide an updated valuation analysis of SK Square (402340 KS) amid a potential sale of 11st to Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US).
  • Our NAV analysis of SK Square suggests NAV of 9.2 trillion won or NAV per share of 65,069 won, representing a 55% upside from current levels.
  • If SK Square is able to sell its stake in 11st to Alibaba, the capital inflow from the sale could be used to raise dividends and complete more share buybacks. 

A Proactive Long Short Basket Setup Targeting KOSPI Size Index’s Next Rebal

By Sanghyun Park

  • We need to focus on the top 2 candidates among the Mid→Large candidates in the screening table mentioned above and the bottom 4 candidates among the Large→Mid candidates.
  • Since they are relatively far from the borderline, there is a significant likelihood that their classification will change. So, flow trading timing on these candidates could be brought forward.
  • Monitoring Doosan Robotics’s market cap potentially nearing ₩3T and keeping an eye on the listing date of Ecopro Materials, we should make changes to the Mid→Large candidates from early December.

LG Corp: Updated NAV Analysis & Outperformance Likely Driven by Value Investors

By Douglas Kim

  • Our NAV analysis of LG Corp suggests an implied market cap of 16.9 trillion won or 107,217 won per share which is 28.4% higher than current share price. 
  • We believe that LG Corp could announce another share buybacks representing 2-3% of outstanding shares in the next 6-12 months. 
  • Another reason that could result in LG Corp’s shares outperforming other major LG related shares is due to the value investors increasing capital allocation to higher dividend paying LG Corp.

KRX Plans to Introduce Float Market Cap & Extreme Price Increases to KOSPI 200 Screening

By Sanghyun Park

  • In addition to full market cap and trading value, float-adjusted market cap will be added as a quantitative screening tool. 
  • Regarding extreme price increases, KRX plans to utilize the deviation between the average daily market capitalizations for two, three, and six months leading up to the screening base date.
  • We should consider designing trading setups that target stocks with relatively low free-float rates and high price volatility in recent months.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Barito Renewables, Bank Mandiri Persero, Bank Negara Indonesia Persero and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Barito Renewables IPO – Power Producer with Stable Cash Flows
  • Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Higher Returns While Livin’ It Up
  • BBNI – Stock Split to Double Shares on 10 October | NPLs Are in Sharp Decline, Especially Loss Loans


Barito Renewables IPO – Power Producer with Stable Cash Flows

By Ethan Aw

  • Barito Renewables (2306028D IJ) is looking to raise around US$228m in its Indonesian IPO. 
  • Barito Renewables (BR) is Indonesia’s largest geothermal power producer, and the third-largest globally by installed capacity, as per the firm. 
  • Its revenue has been primarily driven by electricity and steam sales to PLN as PGE’s exclusive contractor and its profitability has been on the rise over the track record period.

Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Higher Returns While Livin’ It Up

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) continues to positively surprise on loans, NIMs, and credit costs, with a consequential improvement in returns, only non-interest income seeing a slowdown but likely temporary.
  • Digital banking initiatives through Livin’ and KOPRA continue to grow and help the bank drive higher CASA and fee income whilst reducing costs, with smart branches also improving returns.
  • Bank Mandiri remains a core holding as a proxy to the Indonesian economy with its digital initiatives driving higher returns. Valuations remain attractive on 2.2x FY2023 PBV with 20% ROE.

BBNI – Stock Split to Double Shares on 10 October | NPLs Are in Sharp Decline, Especially Loss Loans

By Daniel Tabbush

  • The bank expects its 2 new for 1 old stock split to be done on 10 October
  • Total shares should move from 18.6tr to 37.3tr after the stock split
  • Compared with peers, BBNI has low market cap/assets, good ROA

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Kum Yang, Barito Renewables, Freeport Mcmoran, Hunting PLC, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc , Rpm International, Trigon Metals , Vedanta Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Plans to Introduce Float Market Cap & Extreme Price Increases to KOSPI 200 Screening
  • Barito Renewables IPO – Power Producer with Stable Cash Flows
  • Freeport-McMoRan Inc.: How Is The Company Adapting to Global Shifts? – Major Drivers
  • Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Dec 23: Dechra, Network International, and Other Potential Changes
  • Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.: A Roller Coaster Ride of Earnings and Revenues! – Major Drivers
  • RPM International Inc.: Strategies in the Booming Construction Sector! – Major Drivers
  • TM: Strong Results Continue at Kombat; Drilling at Silver Hill
  • Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, China Vanke , Greentown China, Vedanta Resources


KRX Plans to Introduce Float Market Cap & Extreme Price Increases to KOSPI 200 Screening

By Sanghyun Park

  • In addition to full market cap and trading value, float-adjusted market cap will be added as a quantitative screening tool. 
  • Regarding extreme price increases, KRX plans to utilize the deviation between the average daily market capitalizations for two, three, and six months leading up to the screening base date.
  • We should consider designing trading setups that target stocks with relatively low free-float rates and high price volatility in recent months.

Barito Renewables IPO – Power Producer with Stable Cash Flows

By Ethan Aw

  • Barito Renewables (2306028D IJ) is looking to raise around US$228m in its Indonesian IPO. 
  • Barito Renewables (BR) is Indonesia’s largest geothermal power producer, and the third-largest globally by installed capacity, as per the firm. 
  • Its revenue has been primarily driven by electricity and steam sales to PLN as PGE’s exclusive contractor and its profitability has been on the rise over the track record period.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc.: How Is The Company Adapting to Global Shifts? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Freeport-McMoRan Inc. delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues above market expectations, but it failed to surpass the analyst consensus regarding earnings.
  • Despite this setback, Freeport-McMoRan outperformed expectations, achieving a lower-than-expected unit net cash cost of 47 per pound.
  • This, combined with solid copper prices, resulted in robust margins and an impressive EBITDA of 14 billion.

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Dec 23: Dechra, Network International, and Other Potential Changes

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
  • There could be a couple of intra-review changes in the next 2-3 months but the intra-review replacement names could depend on the timing of these changes.
  • Separately, I see one regular ADD and DELETE for F250 in December 2023 but many names are close to the border and index change expectations could change if prices fluctuate.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.: A Roller Coaster Ride of Earnings and Revenues! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues above the analyst consensus.
  • Cleveland produced its best free cash flow quarter since 2021, with $756 million.
  • The richer mix had an offsetting effect in Q2 on expenses, as Cleveland’s unit costs were unchanged from the previous quarter.

RPM International Inc.: Strategies in the Booming Construction Sector! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • RPM International Inc. delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
  • Net sales for the Construction Products Group reached $748 million, a small increase over the same period the previous year.
  • The consumer group increased sales by 4.9% to $716.4 million in the quarter.

TM: Strong Results Continue at Kombat; Drilling at Silver Hill

By Atrium Research

  • Trigon announced drill results from Kombat at the East 400 area, with a highlight of 4.2% Cu over 13m.
  • This morning, Trigon Metals Inc. (TM:TSXV) announced confirmation drill results at the Kombat Mine in Namibia.
  • The drill results reported today have extended the known mineralization and mineable tonnage in the East 400 area (Figure 1).

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, China Vanke , Greentown China, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Hanwha Systems Co Ltd, Evergreen Marine Corp, Caterpillar Inc, Ametek Inc, Odyssey Marine Exploration , Paccar Inc, Trex Company and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • A Proactive Long Short Basket Setup Targeting KOSPI Size Index’s Next Rebal
  • Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Fuel (Barely) Lower Y/Y | (September 2023)
  • Caterpillar Inc.: North America’s Construction Boom: How Caterpillar Is Capitalizing on It! – Major Drivers
  • AMETEK Inc.: Recent Acquisition Could Skyrocket Its Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. – Minerals for the Future
  • PACCAR Inc.: Road to Dominance: Profits
  • Trex Company Inc.: Innovating Beyond Traditional Decking Boundaries! – Major Drivers


A Proactive Long Short Basket Setup Targeting KOSPI Size Index’s Next Rebal

By Sanghyun Park

  • We need to focus on the top 2 candidates among the Mid→Large candidates in the screening table mentioned above and the bottom 4 candidates among the Large→Mid candidates.
  • Since they are relatively far from the borderline, there is a significant likelihood that their classification will change. So, flow trading timing on these candidates could be brought forward.
  • Monitoring Doosan Robotics’s market cap potentially nearing ₩3T and keeping an eye on the listing date of Ecopro Materials, we should make changes to the Mid→Large candidates from early December.

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Fuel (Barely) Lower Y/Y | (September 2023)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Our index suggests pricing momentum remains depressed, but stable in Q3; fuel prices have begun to rise from Q2 lows, but probably don’t offer much lift to earnings now
  • We looked at intra-Asian carrier TS Lines (which applied to list its shares in Hong Kong in April) and provided a quick update on market conditions in the Intra-Asian trade
  • Shares of a few container shipping companies — including Evergreen Marine of Taiwan — have performed well YTD in 2023; we remain positive on the sector’s medium-term outlook

Caterpillar Inc.: North America’s Construction Boom: How Caterpillar Is Capitalizing on It! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Caterpillar managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings, with sales and revenues soaring by 22%, primarily driven by increased sales volume and price realization.
  • This remarkable growth extended across all three primary segments: Construction Industries, Resource Industries, and Energy & Transportation, with sales to users registering a substantial 16% increase year-over-year.
  • Energy & Transportation also witnessed a remarkable increase in sales to users across all applications, including oil and gas, power generation, industrial, and transportation.

AMETEK Inc.: Recent Acquisition Could Skyrocket Its Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • AMETEK Inc. delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result, characterized by outstanding operational execution and significant results.
  • The company achieved strong sales growth, surpassing expectations and setting histories for sales, operating income, operating margins, earnings per share, and EBITDA.
  • AMETEK’s Electronic Instruments Group demonstrated exceptional performance with widespread sales growth across divisions, while the Electromechanical Group also reported strong sales growth.

Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. – Minerals for the Future

By Water Tower Research

  • Initiating coverage of Odyssey Marine Exploration (OMEX), a pioneer in deep-ocean exploration that has pivoted away from exploring shipwrecks and is now using the vast experience accumulated over decades of undersea work to discover, validate, and develop subsea deposits rich in critical metals and minerals that are beneficial to society, including polymetallic nodules containing metals critical to battery production and phosphate, an important fertilizer component.

  • It’s all over but the waiting. Having completed the evidentiary phase and submitted post-hearing briefs in September 2022, OMEX is currently awaiting the decision of a NAFTA tribunal related to its arbitration against Mexico over what it believes was an illegal denial of an environmental permit to develop a phosphate resource located off the western coast of the country.

  • The potential for an award of monetary damages may exceed $2 billion and can provide longer-term project funding and development opportunities that would be made possible by such an infusion of capital.


PACCAR Inc.: Road to Dominance: Profits

By Baptista Research

  • PACCAR Inc. managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue and earnings.
  • PACCAR Parts reported double-digit revenue growth, accompanied by substantial pretax profit increases.
  • PACCAR Financial Services also contributed positively to the company’s strong quarter, benefiting from an excellent portfolio and favorable used truck results.

Trex Company Inc.: Innovating Beyond Traditional Decking Boundaries! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Trex Company, Inc. delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, demonstrating the durability of customer demand for its goods and the power of the outdoor living market.
  • Despite a slight sales dip compared to the significant second quarter of last year, Trex saw mid-single-digit growth in channel sell-through.
  • Trex unveiled the Trex Select T-Rail system in the quarter.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Kokusai Electric , SK Square , LG Corp, Softbank Group, F5 Networks Inc, Advanced Micro Devices, Ansys Inc, Fleetcor Technologies, Lumen Technologies, Marizyme and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO: Listing in October, TPX Inclusion in November, Global Indices Later
  • SK Square: Updated NAV Analysis Amid Potential Sale of 11st to Alibaba
  • LG Corp: Updated NAV Analysis & Outperformance Likely Driven by Value Investors
  • Softbank Group – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • F5 Networks Inc: The Future Of Networking & AI Integration! – Major Drivers
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Setting the Pace in AI with New Acquisitions? – Major Drivers
  • ANSYS Inc.: The Role of SMBs in Driving Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Fleetcor Technologies Inc: Discover the 5 Key Moves Behind Their Success! – Major Drivers
  • Lumen Technologies Inc.: The NaaS Offering Might be the Future of Networking? – Major Drivers
  • Marizyme, Inc. – Powerful Technology Platform Driving Strong Growth Potential


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO: Listing in October, TPX Inclusion in November, Global Indices Later

By Brian Freitas

  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 25 October.
  • At the reported indicative IPO price of JPY 1890/share, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) will be valued at JPY 435bn (US$2.94bn).
  • The stock should be added to the TPX INDEX at the close on 29 November where trackers will need to buy over 14% of the stock issued in the IPO.

SK Square: Updated NAV Analysis Amid Potential Sale of 11st to Alibaba

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide an updated valuation analysis of SK Square (402340 KS) amid a potential sale of 11st to Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US).
  • Our NAV analysis of SK Square suggests NAV of 9.2 trillion won or NAV per share of 65,069 won, representing a 55% upside from current levels.
  • If SK Square is able to sell its stake in 11st to Alibaba, the capital inflow from the sale could be used to raise dividends and complete more share buybacks. 

LG Corp: Updated NAV Analysis & Outperformance Likely Driven by Value Investors

By Douglas Kim

  • Our NAV analysis of LG Corp suggests an implied market cap of 16.9 trillion won or 107,217 won per share which is 28.4% higher than current share price. 
  • We believe that LG Corp could announce another share buybacks representing 2-3% of outstanding shares in the next 6-12 months. 
  • Another reason that could result in LG Corp’s shares outperforming other major LG related shares is due to the value investors increasing capital allocation to higher dividend paying LG Corp.

Softbank Group – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

We view Softbank Group (SBG) as “Low Risk” on the LARA scale. This is mainly due to the group’s low reported leverage, as measured by LTV. SBG has demonstrated its ability to manage LTV, by periodically monetising large holdings of liquid assets (e.g. Alibaba Group Holding or T-Mobile/Deutsche Telekom shares) via derivatives or non-recourse margin loans. Investors can derive comfort from SBG’s remaining holdings of those liquid assets on the balance sheet. Domestic telco Softbank Corp is the only significant cash generator consolidated into SBG. We see risks stemming from the group’s reliance on its Alibaba stake (which may be volatile), as well as the use of cash from the asset monetisation programme. We are also concerned about the large share repurchase programmes despite SBG’s weak results, as well as the company’s ability to invest.

Our Credit Bias is “Stable”. We believe the worst is over for SBG. The North American and Chinese tech sectors appear to be improving. SBG executed a major asset monetisation exercise in FY 2022-23 to shore up the balance sheet, raising it to a healthy level. LTV is very low, and liquidity is sound. We see little downside going forward, and more upside.

Controversies are “Immaterial”, but the ESG Impact on Credit is “Moderately Negative”. SBG has faced governance concerns, particularly over internal controls and the outsized influence of Chairman, CEO and founder Masayoshi Son. Such issues flare up on occasion, weighing on the credit. One concern is that the chairman could make imprudent investments, lowering the value of SBG’s holdings while driving leverage up.


F5 Networks Inc: The Future Of Networking & AI Integration! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • F5 Networks Inc. delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.
  • F5 also continues to observe increased maintenance attach rates on older deployments due to customers worrying about their existing assets.
  • Their product revenue increased by 1%, their systems revenue increased by 5%, and their software revenue decreased by 3%.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Setting the Pace in AI with New Acquisitions? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues above analyst expectations but below-par earnings, showcasing strategic execution and notable achievements.
  • Despite a year-over-year decline in revenue, the company reported steady performance compared to the previous quarter.
  • The data center segment experienced sequential growth, primarily attributed to cloud providers’ accelerated adoption of the fourth-gen EPYC CPUs.

ANSYS Inc.: The Role of SMBs in Driving Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • ANSYS Inc. delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, surpassing its financial guidance across all key metrics.
  • During Q2, the company reported reliable performance, beating its ACV, revenue, operating margin, and EPS guidance.
  • Total revenue for the quarter exceeded expectations, reflecting the positive impact of ACV outperformance and the mix of license types sold.

Fleetcor Technologies Inc: Discover the 5 Key Moves Behind Their Success! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Fleetcor Technologies managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • Both print revenue growth and organic revenue growth stood at 10% for the quarter.
  • While Q2 print revenue benefited from acquisition revenue, it was offset by lower fuel prices.

Lumen Technologies Inc.: The NaaS Offering Might be the Future of Networking? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lumen Technologies, Inc. delivered a mixed result in the quarter, with revenues below anticipations but surpassed the Wall Street consensus regarding earnings.
  • The total revenue was $3.661 billion, decreased 2.1% sequentially.
  • In the quarter, free cash flow was negative $896 million, including $938 million in taxes paid in connection with their two divestitures from the previous year.

Marizyme, Inc. – Powerful Technology Platform Driving Strong Growth Potential

By Water Tower Research

  • Marizyme, Inc. (MRZM) is a fast-growing biomedical company with a powerful multi-technology platform.

  • At the forefront is DuraGraft (DG), which has already demonstrated improved outcomes and lower costs for cardiac care through clinical trials and actual implementation in select overseas markets.

  • In addition to continued ‘OUS’ expansion, MRZM is readying for the implementation of DG in US markets, pending FDA approval.


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