Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: BHP Group Ltd, Merdeka Gold Resources, Exide Industries, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Crude Oil, Canyon Resources, Yankuang Energy Group, Alamos Gold Inc, China Energy Engineering and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • BHP: Press Reports of China Iron Ore Suspension, New CEO
  • Merdeka Gold Resources (EMAS IJ): Indonesia’s Largest IPO of 2025
  • The Beat Ideas: Exide Industries- Powering India’s Energy Transition From Lead-Acid to Li-Ion
  • GST Cut Lifts Outlook As Indian Tire Majors Navigate Weak Q1
  • Oil futures: Crude higher as Russia disruptions offset glut concerns
  • Oil futures: Crude drifts lower on supply glut fears
  • Canyon Resources Placement: Backstopped by Largest Shareholder; Strategic Assets
  • Primer: Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Alamos Gold Inc (AGI CN) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: China Energy Engineering (601868 CH) – Sep 2025


BHP: Press Reports of China Iron Ore Suspension, New CEO

By Graeme Cunningham

  • Press reports indicated that China could temporarily suspend purchases of BHP’s iron ore from Jimblebar, which could account for a mid-single digit percentage of revenue
  • The UK press reported Geraldine Slattery will likely be BHP’s new CEO, who currently heads BHP’s Australian operations and has over three decades with the company
  • BHP is 4% above our DCF, its 2.8x P/B is not clearly excessive or attractive, and we see risks to iron ore, copper and coal prices from a broad slowdown

Merdeka Gold Resources (EMAS IJ): Indonesia’s Largest IPO of 2025

By Rahul Jain

  • Largest IPO 2025: EMAS IJ raised ~USD 281m, 4.6× oversubscribed, spun off from MDKA to fund Sulawesi’s Pani Gold Project.
  • Asset Scale: Pani holds 1.9 Moz reserves, 7 Moz resources; production to ramp from 145 koz (2026) to ~500 koz (2032).
  • Valuation & Risks: IPO EV ~USD 3.2 bn; ~8–9× EV/EBITDA during 2026–29 heap leach, falling to ~2–3× at 2032 steady-state; execution, funding risks remain.

The Beat Ideas: Exide Industries- Powering India’s Energy Transition From Lead-Acid to Li-Ion

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Exide Industries is doubling down on lithium-ion cell and pack manufacturing with huge committed capex, while sustaining its dominant lead-acid franchise.
  • The company’s strong cash flows from lead acid batteries are funding high-risk, high-reward bets on EV and renewable storage, positioning it as India’s only dual-chemistry energy storage leader.
  • Execution risk in lithium-ion scale-up is high, but Exide’s brand equity provide a buffer. The story now hinges on whether early-mover advantage in Li-ion can translate into sustainable returns.

GST Cut Lifts Outlook As Indian Tire Majors Navigate Weak Q1

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Tire makers see profit pressure despite revenue gains  
  • JK Tyre eyes double-digit growth, expands global footprint  
  •  CEAT eyes expanding Chennai plant at US$51 million spend  

Oil futures: Crude higher as Russia disruptions offset glut concerns

By Quantum Commodity Intelligence

  • Crude oil futures were climbing higher on Tuesday as concerns about oversupply vied with geopolitical uncertainty to set the tone for the early part of the week.
  • Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $67.91/b (2017 BST) versus Monday’s settle of $66.57/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at  $63.71/b against a previous close of $62.28/b.
  • Benchmarks had opened the session lower, but geopolitical tensions continue to keep markets on edge amid ongoing strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, while Russian military activity close to the Polish border has raised wider tensions.

Oil futures: Crude drifts lower on supply glut fears

By Quantum Commodity Intelligence

  • Crude oil futures were slightly lower on Tuesday as concerns about oversupply vied with geopolitical uncertainty to set the tone for the early week.
  • Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $66.37/b (0850 BST) versus Monday’s settle of $66.57/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at  $62.10/b against a previous close of $62.28/b.
  • Markets have been unable to shake off fears of a looming supply glut, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) setting off alarm bells last month with its forecast of a 2.5 million bpd Q4 surplus rising to over 3 million bpd next year, with OPEC+ seemingly on course to add more 2.5 million bpd by the end of this year.

Canyon Resources Placement: Backstopped by Largest Shareholder; Strategic Assets

By Nicholas Tan

  • Canyon Resources (CAY AU) is looking to raise around US$132m in a primary placement.
  • The company will use the proceeds to fund capital expenditures, as well as increase its stake in the railway line serving its mine in Central Africa’s Cameroon.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Primer: Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Yankuang Energy Group is a major Chinese state-owned enterprise, primarily engaged in coal mining, which accounts for the majority of its revenue. The company is actively diversifying into coal chemicals, new materials, and renewable energy to mitigate risks associated with the global energy transition and fluctuating commodity prices.
  • The company’s financial performance is heavily influenced by coal price volatility. While it has demonstrated periods of strong profitability and shareholder returns, recent performance has been impacted by declining coal prices, leading to a significant drop in net income.
  • Strategically, Yankuang is focused on expanding its production capacity in both coal and chemicals, while also setting ambitious targets for renewable energy. However, this expansion is largely debt-fueled, raising concerns about its financial leverage and balance sheet fragility amidst a challenging market outlook for coal.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Primer: Alamos Gold Inc (AGI CN) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Strong, Fully-Funded Growth Profile in Tier-1 Jurisdictions: Alamos Gold is executing a significant production growth plan, expecting to increase output by approximately 24% from 2024 to 2027, with a long-term target of around 900,000 ounces annually. This growth is driven by low-cost, high-return organic projects in Canada, including the Phase 3+ Expansion at Island Gold and the newly approved Lynn Lake project, which are fully funded by internal cash flow.
  • Declining Cost Trajectory and Margin Expansion: The company is positioned for a significant reduction in all-in sustaining costs (AISC), projected to fall from ~$1,275/oz in 2024 to as low as $1,125-$1,225/oz by 2027. This cost improvement, driven by the completion of major capital projects and economies of scale, should lead to substantial margin expansion and free cash flow generation, particularly in a strong gold price environment.
  • Solid Financial Position and Experienced Management: Alamos maintains a robust balance sheet with a strong liquidity position and a conservative leverage profile, providing the flexibility to fund its growth pipeline. The company is led by a seasoned management team, including founder and CEO John A. McCluskey, who has a proven track record of value creation and operational execution since 2003.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Primer: China Energy Engineering (601868 CH) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Dominant Market Position with Strong Growth: As a leading state-owned enterprise, China Energy Engineering Corp (CEEC) is a key player in China’s energy and infrastructure construction sectors. The company has demonstrated a robust growth track record with a 3-year revenue CAGR of 10.68% and a net income CAGR of 8.88%, driven by strong domestic investment in energy infrastructure and its active participation in the global Belt and Road Initiative.
  • Significant Cash Flow Concerns: Despite impressive top-line growth, the company exhibits a critical weakness in cash flow generation. Free cash flow has been severely negative over the past three years and the last several quarters, indicating that high capital expenditures and working capital requirements are consuming more cash than the operations generate. This raises concerns about the quality of earnings and long-term financial sustainability.
  • Strategic Focus on New Energy: CEEC is strategically aligning with China’s national goals for carbon neutrality by increasing its focus on renewable energy projects, including solar, wind, and hydropower. This transition presents a significant long-term growth opportunity, but also requires substantial upfront investment, contributing to the current negative free cash flow.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Kcc Corp, Jain Resource Recycling, Atlanta Electricals, Rolls-Royce Holdings, Joby Aviation , Technopro Holdings, Kajima Corp, Toshiba Corp, Synergy Grid & Development Philippines, Carlisle Cos and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • KCC Corp – To Issue 430 Billion Won in EB Using Its Treasury Shares?
  • Jain Resource Recycling IPO – Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
  • Atlanta Electricals: IPO Priced at 30% Discount to Peers. Can Bid for Listing Pop
  • Primer: Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR/ LN) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Joby Aviation (JOBY US) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Kajima Corp (1812 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Synergy Grid & Development Philippines (SGP PM) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Carlisle Cos (CSL US) – Sep 2025


KCC Corp – To Issue 430 Billion Won in EB Using Its Treasury Shares?

By Douglas Kim

  • On 23 September, Hankyung Business Daily reported that Kcc Corp (002380 KS) plans to issue about 430 billion won worth of exchangeable bonds (EB) based on its own treasury shares.
  • We believe the overall impact on this EB issue on KCC is likely to be more negative as compared to the EB issue it conducted in July 2025. 
  • Our NAV valuation of KCC Corp suggests NAV per share of 508,467 won, which is 22% higher than current price.

Jain Resource Recycling IPO – Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

By Akshat Shah

  • Jain Resource Recycling (2300699D IN) is looking to raise about US$142m in its India IPO.
  • The company is primarily focused on manufacturing of non-ferrous metal products by recycling of non-ferrous metal scrap. It is also engaged in trading of non-ferrous metals and other commodities.
  • In this note, we take a quick look at the peer comparison and IPO valuations.

Atlanta Electricals: IPO Priced at 30% Discount to Peers. Can Bid for Listing Pop

By Himanshu Dugar

  • Atlanta is the third largest manufcaturer of transformers in India. With recent capex coming online, it boasts of capacity and product offering in line with the market leaders.
  • The company has a strong order book of 1,600cr and given the fairly short execution timeline is positioned to deliver 25-30% growth in FY26.
  • We believe IPO is being fairly valued at 20-24 times FY26 EBITDA, implying a 30-35% discount vs market leader Transformers & Rectifiers (India) Ltd (TRIL IN) 

Primer: Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR/ LN) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Rolls-Royce is undergoing a significant transformation under new leadership, resulting in a sharp recovery in profitability and cash flow. This turnaround is driven by a rebound in Civil Aerospace aftermarket services and strong performance in its Defence and Power Systems divisions.
  • The company operates in markets with high barriers to entry, particularly in the wide-body aircraft engine sector, affording it a strong competitive position. Long-term service agreements provide a resilient and recurring revenue stream tied to engine flying hours.
  • While the outlook is positive, supported by a strong order book and strategic cost-cutting initiatives, the company’s valuation appears elevated relative to historical levels. Key risks include execution of the ongoing transformation, cyclicality of the commercial aviation market, and persistent supply chain pressures.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Primer: Joby Aviation (JOBY US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Joby Aviation is a pre-revenue company at the forefront of the emerging electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft market, aiming to revolutionize urban transportation with an on-demand aerial ridesharing service.
  • The company has made significant progress towards Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification for its aircraft, placing it ahead of many competitors. Strategic partnerships with major players like Toyota and Delta Air Lines, along with a strong financial position, are key enablers of its growth strategy.
  • However, the company faces substantial risks, including a capital-intensive business model with a long road to profitability, intense competition from both startups and established aerospace giants, and significant regulatory and technological hurdles to overcome before commercial operations can commence.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Primer: Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Technopro Holdings is the subject of a tender offer from private equity firm Blackstone at ¥4,870/share, which represents a significant premium but is considered potentially undervalued by some market observers.
  • As a leading technology-focused staffing firm in Japan, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the country’s structural shortage of skilled engineers and increasing demand for digital transformation.
  • Significant uncertainty surrounds the success of the Blackstone acquisition due to a high tender threshold of 66.67% and a large passive shareholder base, creating a key risk for investors at the current price.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Primer: Kajima Corp (1812 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Leading Market Position with Diversified Operations: Kajima is one of Japan’s ‘Big Five’ general contractors, possessing a dominant position in the domestic construction market. The company is well-diversified across civil engineering, building construction, and a growing real estate development business, which provides a buffer against the cyclicality of the construction sector.
  • Favorable Industry Tailwinds: The Japanese construction market is supported by robust public and private investment. Key drivers include large-scale urban redevelopment projects, government spending on national resilience and infrastructure renewal, and growing demand for advanced facilities like data centers and logistics centers.
  • Shareholder-Focused Capital Allocation: Kajima has demonstrated a strong commitment to shareholder returns, evidenced by a 3-year dividend CAGR of over 21%. This is supported by a strategy to enhance profitability by focusing on high-margin projects and improving investment efficiency in its real estate development arm.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Primer: Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Privatization Marks New Chapter: After 74 years as a publicly traded entity, Toshiba was delisted in December 2023 following a successful $13.5 billion buyout by a consortium led by Japan Industrial Partners (JIP). This move ends a tumultuous period marked by accounting scandals, corporate governance crises, and battles with activist investors, allowing management to focus on a long-term revitalization strategy away from public market pressures.
  • Strategic Refocus on Core Operations: Having divested numerous non-core businesses such as laptops, medical equipment, and home appliances, the new strategy centers on higher-margin and critical technology sectors. Key focus areas include energy systems, infrastructure, power semiconductors, and data-driven digital solutions, aiming to leverage the company’s technological strengths in areas critical to national security and global trends like decarbonization and digitalization.
  • Path to Recovery Fraught with Challenges: Despite the potential benefits of privatization, Toshiba faces significant hurdles. The company is still recovering from a legacy of financial mismanagement and reputational damage. It operates in highly competitive global markets and must execute a complex turnaround plan to streamline operations, manage its debt, and regain its position as an innovative leader.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Primer: Synergy Grid & Development Philippines (SGP PM) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Monopoly Position with Guaranteed Returns: SGP’s sole operating asset, the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP), holds an exclusive 25-year concession to operate the entire Philippine power transmission network, creating a natural monopoly with significant barriers to entry. This structure provides a stable and predictable revenue stream based on a regulated asset base.
  • Growth Driven by National Economic Expansion: The company is poised to benefit from the Philippines’ robust economic growth, which directly translates to increasing electricity demand. This necessitates significant capital expenditures for grid expansion and modernization, particularly to integrate renewable energy sources, thereby growing SGP’s asset base and future earnings potential.
  • Significant Regulatory and Political Risks: As a regulated entity, SGP’s financial performance is highly susceptible to the decisions of the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), particularly concerning tariff setting and allowable returns. The strategic importance of the national grid also exposes the company to political scrutiny and potential government intervention, which can create uncertainty.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Primer: Carlisle Cos (CSL US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Carlisle is a market-leading manufacturer of highly engineered building envelope products, with a dominant position in the North American commercial roofing market.
  • The company is strategically focused on higher-growth, higher-margin businesses, having recently divested non-core assets. This aligns with their ‘Vision 2030’ plan, which targets significant earnings per share growth.
  • While facing near-term headwinds from a softer construction market and destocking, Carlisle’s long-term outlook is supported by favorable trends in energy efficiency, re-roofing, and a strong track record of operational excellence through the Carlisle Operating System (COS).

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Kcc Corp, Jain Resource Recycling, Atlanta Electricals, Rolls-Royce Holdings, Joby Aviation , Technopro Holdings, Kajima Corp, Toshiba Corp, Synergy Grid & Development Philippines, Carlisle Cos and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • KCC Corp – To Issue 430 Billion Won in EB Using Its Treasury Shares?
  • Jain Resource Recycling IPO – Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
  • Atlanta Electricals: IPO Priced at 30% Discount to Peers. Can Bid for Listing Pop
  • Primer: Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR/ LN) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Joby Aviation (JOBY US) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Kajima Corp (1812 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Synergy Grid & Development Philippines (SGP PM) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Carlisle Cos (CSL US) – Sep 2025


KCC Corp – To Issue 430 Billion Won in EB Using Its Treasury Shares?

By Douglas Kim

  • On 23 September, Hankyung Business Daily reported that Kcc Corp (002380 KS) plans to issue about 430 billion won worth of exchangeable bonds (EB) based on its own treasury shares.
  • We believe the overall impact on this EB issue on KCC is likely to be more negative as compared to the EB issue it conducted in July 2025. 
  • Our NAV valuation of KCC Corp suggests NAV per share of 508,467 won, which is 22% higher than current price.

Jain Resource Recycling IPO – Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

By Akshat Shah

  • Jain Resource Recycling (2300699D IN) is looking to raise about US$142m in its India IPO.
  • The company is primarily focused on manufacturing of non-ferrous metal products by recycling of non-ferrous metal scrap. It is also engaged in trading of non-ferrous metals and other commodities.
  • In this note, we take a quick look at the peer comparison and IPO valuations.

Atlanta Electricals: IPO Priced at 30% Discount to Peers. Can Bid for Listing Pop

By Himanshu Dugar

  • Atlanta is the third largest manufcaturer of transformers in India. With recent capex coming online, it boasts of capacity and product offering in line with the market leaders.
  • The company has a strong order book of 1,600cr and given the fairly short execution timeline is positioned to deliver 25-30% growth in FY26.
  • We believe IPO is being fairly valued at 20-24 times FY26 EBITDA, implying a 30-35% discount vs market leader Transformers & Rectifiers (India) Ltd (TRIL IN) 

Primer: Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR/ LN) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Rolls-Royce is undergoing a significant transformation under new leadership, resulting in a sharp recovery in profitability and cash flow. This turnaround is driven by a rebound in Civil Aerospace aftermarket services and strong performance in its Defence and Power Systems divisions.
  • The company operates in markets with high barriers to entry, particularly in the wide-body aircraft engine sector, affording it a strong competitive position. Long-term service agreements provide a resilient and recurring revenue stream tied to engine flying hours.
  • While the outlook is positive, supported by a strong order book and strategic cost-cutting initiatives, the company’s valuation appears elevated relative to historical levels. Key risks include execution of the ongoing transformation, cyclicality of the commercial aviation market, and persistent supply chain pressures.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Primer: Joby Aviation (JOBY US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Joby Aviation is a pre-revenue company at the forefront of the emerging electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft market, aiming to revolutionize urban transportation with an on-demand aerial ridesharing service.
  • The company has made significant progress towards Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification for its aircraft, placing it ahead of many competitors. Strategic partnerships with major players like Toyota and Delta Air Lines, along with a strong financial position, are key enablers of its growth strategy.
  • However, the company faces substantial risks, including a capital-intensive business model with a long road to profitability, intense competition from both startups and established aerospace giants, and significant regulatory and technological hurdles to overcome before commercial operations can commence.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Primer: Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Technopro Holdings is the subject of a tender offer from private equity firm Blackstone at ¥4,870/share, which represents a significant premium but is considered potentially undervalued by some market observers.
  • As a leading technology-focused staffing firm in Japan, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the country’s structural shortage of skilled engineers and increasing demand for digital transformation.
  • Significant uncertainty surrounds the success of the Blackstone acquisition due to a high tender threshold of 66.67% and a large passive shareholder base, creating a key risk for investors at the current price.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Primer: Kajima Corp (1812 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Leading Market Position with Diversified Operations: Kajima is one of Japan’s ‘Big Five’ general contractors, possessing a dominant position in the domestic construction market. The company is well-diversified across civil engineering, building construction, and a growing real estate development business, which provides a buffer against the cyclicality of the construction sector.
  • Favorable Industry Tailwinds: The Japanese construction market is supported by robust public and private investment. Key drivers include large-scale urban redevelopment projects, government spending on national resilience and infrastructure renewal, and growing demand for advanced facilities like data centers and logistics centers.
  • Shareholder-Focused Capital Allocation: Kajima has demonstrated a strong commitment to shareholder returns, evidenced by a 3-year dividend CAGR of over 21%. This is supported by a strategy to enhance profitability by focusing on high-margin projects and improving investment efficiency in its real estate development arm.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Primer: Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Privatization Marks New Chapter: After 74 years as a publicly traded entity, Toshiba was delisted in December 2023 following a successful $13.5 billion buyout by a consortium led by Japan Industrial Partners (JIP). This move ends a tumultuous period marked by accounting scandals, corporate governance crises, and battles with activist investors, allowing management to focus on a long-term revitalization strategy away from public market pressures.
  • Strategic Refocus on Core Operations: Having divested numerous non-core businesses such as laptops, medical equipment, and home appliances, the new strategy centers on higher-margin and critical technology sectors. Key focus areas include energy systems, infrastructure, power semiconductors, and data-driven digital solutions, aiming to leverage the company’s technological strengths in areas critical to national security and global trends like decarbonization and digitalization.
  • Path to Recovery Fraught with Challenges: Despite the potential benefits of privatization, Toshiba faces significant hurdles. The company is still recovering from a legacy of financial mismanagement and reputational damage. It operates in highly competitive global markets and must execute a complex turnaround plan to streamline operations, manage its debt, and regain its position as an innovative leader.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Primer: Synergy Grid & Development Philippines (SGP PM) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Monopoly Position with Guaranteed Returns: SGP’s sole operating asset, the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP), holds an exclusive 25-year concession to operate the entire Philippine power transmission network, creating a natural monopoly with significant barriers to entry. This structure provides a stable and predictable revenue stream based on a regulated asset base.
  • Growth Driven by National Economic Expansion: The company is poised to benefit from the Philippines’ robust economic growth, which directly translates to increasing electricity demand. This necessitates significant capital expenditures for grid expansion and modernization, particularly to integrate renewable energy sources, thereby growing SGP’s asset base and future earnings potential.
  • Significant Regulatory and Political Risks: As a regulated entity, SGP’s financial performance is highly susceptible to the decisions of the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), particularly concerning tariff setting and allowable returns. The strategic importance of the national grid also exposes the company to political scrutiny and potential government intervention, which can create uncertainty.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Primer: Carlisle Cos (CSL US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Carlisle is a market-leading manufacturer of highly engineered building envelope products, with a dominant position in the North American commercial roofing market.
  • The company is strategically focused on higher-growth, higher-margin businesses, having recently divested non-core assets. This aligns with their ‘Vision 2030’ plan, which targets significant earnings per share growth.
  • While facing near-term headwinds from a softer construction market and destocking, Carlisle’s long-term outlook is supported by favorable trends in energy efficiency, re-roofing, and a strong track record of operational excellence through the Carlisle Operating System (COS).

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Gemvax & Kael, Oneconnect Financial Technology, AEM, Kingsoft Cloud Holdings, Victory Giant Technology -A, Xilinx Inc, China Satellite Communications, Advanced Micro Devices, Daqo New Energy Corp Adr and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Semicon ETF Rebal October Play: 2 In, 2 Out Long-Short Setup
  • OneConnect (6638 HK/OCFT US): 28th October Vote On Ping An’s Offer
  • AEM Holdings: Nvidia’s Investment in Intel to Drive AEM Re-Rating?
  • Kingsoft Cloud Placement: Second Primary Offering This Year
  • OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Scheme Vote for Below Net Cash Offer on 28 October
  • Victory Giant A/H Listing – Riding the AI Wave
  • Primer: Xilinx Inc (XLNX US) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: China Satellite Communications (601698 CH) – Sep 2025
  • The Intel-Nvidia Deal Could Outflank AMD Entirely
  • Primer: Daqo New Energy Corp Adr (DQ US) – Sep 2025


Korea Semicon ETF Rebal October Play: 2 In, 2 Out Long-Short Setup

By Sanghyun Park

  • MTD screening results with 5 trading days left point to 2 names going out and 2 names coming in: Gemvax and Wonik IPS replace Dongjin Semichem and Jusung Engineering.
  • Unlike last April’s tariff-distorted +1.3% rebalance, this time we expect cleaner, more meaningful price action.
  • No pre-positioning seen, so I’ll target ETF rebalance day (Oct 10) and maybe take an anticipatory position a day earlier.

OneConnect (6638 HK/OCFT US): 28th October Vote On Ping An’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • I was way off on timing. After the pre-cons were satisfied on the 9th July, I thought Ping An’s Offer for Oneconnect Financial (6638 HK) could feasibly wrap up around now.
  • A draft Scheme Doc was released on the 18th July. The IFA (Gram Capital) said fair & reasonable. 
  • The Scheme Document is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 28th October and expected payment around the 28th November. 

AEM Holdings: Nvidia’s Investment in Intel to Drive AEM Re-Rating?

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Last week NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) announced a 5 billion USD investment into Intel Corp (INTC US)
  • If the collaboration between the two tech giants is successful, it could lead to a revival of the entire Intel supply chain.
  • AEM (AEM SP) has historically been closely linked to Intel, so any revival of Intel has the potential to benefit AEM substantially.

Kingsoft Cloud Placement: Second Primary Offering This Year

By Nicholas Tan

  • Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK) is looking to raise around US$304m in a primary placement.
  • The company will use the proceeds to support its AI business, including infrastructure expansion and enhancement of cloud services.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Scheme Vote for Below Net Cash Offer on 28 October

By Arun George

  • Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)’s IFA opines that Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)’s HK$2.068 (US$7.976 per ADS) offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 28 October. 
  • The offer is below net cash, and the FCF burn is modest. Ping An is privatising OneConnect just as its revenue declines end (due to the discontinued cloud business).
  • The high minority participation rate and protest votes at the recent AGM are warning signs that the scheme vote is high risk. This setup is best avoided. 

Victory Giant A/H Listing – Riding the AI Wave

By Sumeet Singh

  • Victory Giant Technology -A (300476 CH) (VG) aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
  • VG is one of the global leaders in advanced printed circuit boards (PCB) products for AI and high-performance computing.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Primer: Xilinx Inc (XLNX US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Historical Context is Crucial: This report analyzes Xilinx Inc. as a standalone entity prior to its acquisition by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which was announced in October 2020 and completed in February 2022. Xilinx ceased trading on the NASDAQ post-acquisition. Therefore, this primer serves as a historical analysis of a foundational semiconductor company.
  • Dominant FPGA Market Leader: Xilinx was the inventor of the Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) and the market leader, consistently holding over 50% market share. Its primary competitor was Altera, which was acquired by Intel. The company’s core strength was its highly flexible and adaptive processing platforms that enabled rapid innovation across diverse, high-growth markets like data centers, 5G communications, automotive, and aerospace & defense.
  • Strategic Pivot to Platform Company: Under the leadership of CEO Victor Peng, Xilinx successfully transitioned from a chip supplier to a platform-centric company, focusing on high-growth areas like data center acceleration and AI inference. This strategy involved significant R&D investment and acquisitions to bolster its software and IP portfolio, leading to strong revenue growth in its targeted markets prior to the acquisition.

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Primer: China Satellite Communications (601698 CH) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • China Satellite Communications (China Satcom) is a core professional subsidiary of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, holding a national basic telecommunications business license. It is the primary operator of satellite communications in China, with a fleet of geostationary satellites covering China, Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and the Pacific.
  • The company’s revenue streams are primarily derived from satellite resource leasing and value-added services, including broadcasting, telecom, corporate, and government applications. While revenue has seen a slight decline in recent years, the company maintains a strong market position within China.
  • The global satellite communication market is projected to experience significant growth, driven by the increasing demand for high-speed internet, particularly in remote areas, and the expansion of applications in the military, aviation, and maritime sectors. This presents both opportunities and challenges for China Satcom as the industry landscape evolves with the rise of LEO constellations and new technologies.

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The Intel-Nvidia Deal Could Outflank AMD Entirely

By Raghav Vashisht

  • Nvidia and Intel’s surprise alliance may not taper ARM or even TSMC immediately, but it could marginalise AMD far sooner.
  • With tighter OEM budgets and “AI PC” branding pressure, AMD risks being boxed out of design wins across the client stack.
  • If Nvidia and Intel drive system-level costs-per-token down, AMD’s chips might find it hard to compete despite being performant.

Primer: Daqo New Energy Corp Adr (DQ US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Leading Polysilicon Producer Facing Severe Cyclical Downturn: Daqo New Energy is a top-5 global producer of high-purity polysilicon, a critical material for the solar PV industry. The company is currently navigating a severe industry downturn characterized by massive overcapacity and plummeting polysilicon prices, which has led to significant revenue declines and negative profitability.
  • Low-Cost Position and Strong Balance Sheet Provide Resilience: Despite the challenging market, Daqo maintains a key competitive advantage through its position as one of the world’s lowest-cost producers. This, combined with a strong balance sheet and substantial net cash position, provides a buffer to withstand the current price trough better than higher-cost competitors.
  • Valuation Appears Depressed, but High Uncertainty Persists: The company’s stock is trading at a significant discount to its book value and its Shanghai-listed subsidiary, reflecting deep market pessimism. While this presents a potential value opportunity, the timing of a polysilicon price recovery is highly uncertain, and risks related to oversupply, geopolitical tensions, and trade policies remain significant.

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Daily Brief Financials: Mediobanca SpA, S&P/ASX 200, Ally Financial, FnGuide Inc, Everbright Securitie Co (A), Regency Centers, SBI Holdings, Lincoln National, Equinix Inc, Blue Owl Capital and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • BMPS–Mediobanca: 86.3% Tendered — What Changes Now?
  • S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook: Rally Is Restarting
  • Primer: Ally Financial (ALLY US) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: FnGuide Inc (064850 KS) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Everbright Securitie Co (A) (601788 CH) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Regency Centers (REG US) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: SBI Holdings (8473 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Lincoln Financial Group’s Big Bet on Annuities – Will It Pay Off?
  • Primer: Equinix Inc (EQIX US) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Blue Owl Capital (OWL US) – Sep 2025


BMPS–Mediobanca: 86.3% Tendered — What Changes Now?

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • BMPS closed the re-open at 86.3% of Mediobanca (62.3% initial + ~24pts re-open); settlement 29 Sep. Super-majority secured enables extraordinary resolutions; MB remains listed below 90%/95% thresholds.
  • MB should hug 2.533×BMPS + €0.90 into 29 Sep; basis widened on flows but typically compresses. Sensitivity: each 1% move in BMPS shifts implied MB ~€0.20 (delta ≈2.533).
  • Trade: convergence hold long MB/short 2.533× BMPS into settlement; exit unless underwriting merger risk. For BMPS, lower dilution and cash outlay support the equity, tempered by integration and accumulation overhang.

S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook: Rally Is Restarting

By Nico Rosti

  • As previously forecasted, the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) ended its rally at the end of August/early September.
  • The index has corrected for the past 3 weeks and is now very oversold according to our models.
  • In the last 3 days the index has been showing some momentum, this insight will try to target potential profit targets for the next 2-3 weeks.

Primer: Ally Financial (ALLY US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Leading Digital Bank and Auto Financier: Ally Financial holds a strong position as the largest all-digital bank in the U.S. and a dominant player in the automotive finance market. This dual focus provides diversified revenue streams and a solid customer base.
  • Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns: The company has demonstrated a commitment to shareholder returns through consistent dividend payments. Recent financial performance shows a significant rebound in Q2 2025, with adjusted EPS beating analyst expectations, driven by an expanded net interest margin and disciplined cost control.
  • Navigating a Challenging Environment: Ally faces headwinds from intense competition in the financial services industry, potential economic downturns impacting loan performance, and a dynamic regulatory landscape. The company’s reliance on the auto lending market also exposes it to risks associated with this specific sector.

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Primer: FnGuide Inc (064850 KS) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • FnGuide holds a dominant position in South Korea’s rapidly expanding sector-themed ETF index market, a key growth driver for the company.
  • Despite consistent revenue growth, the company experienced a significant 47.6% drop in net income in FY 2024, raising concerns about profitability and operational efficiency.
  • A shareholder dispute in 2024 and subsequent management changes have introduced corporate governance risks and uncertainty regarding the company’s future strategic direction.

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Primer: Everbright Securitie Co (A) (601788 CH) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Everbright Securities is a prominent, state-affiliated financial services firm in China with a comprehensive business model spanning wealth management, investment banking, and asset management.
  • The company’s financial performance is inherently tied to the volatility of China’s capital markets, as evidenced by recent declines in revenue and net income following periods of strong growth. Regulatory shifts and intense domestic competition are key factors influencing its operational landscape.
  • Strategically, the firm is focused on optimizing its capital structure and expanding into higher-margin businesses like institutional brokerage and wealth management to navigate the highly fragmented and competitive domestic market.

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Primer: Regency Centers (REG US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Regency Centers stands as a preeminent owner and operator of high-quality, grocery-anchored shopping centers located in affluent and densely populated U.S. markets.
  • The company’s strategic focus on necessity-based retail provides a defensive moat against e-commerce and economic downturns, resulting in high occupancy rates and stable cash flows.
  • Future growth is expected to be driven by a combination of strong leasing activity, a robust development and redevelopment pipeline, and disciplined capital allocation, though risks from tenant bankruptcies and rising interest rates persist.

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Primer: SBI Holdings (8473 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • SBI Holdings is a major Japanese financial services conglomerate with a diversified business portfolio spanning Financial Services, Asset Management, Private Equity Investment, Crypto-assets, and Next Generation Business. The company is aggressively pursuing a growth strategy centered on digital transformation, strategic acquisitions, and expansion into new technological frontiers like Web3, AI, and semiconductors.
  • The company has demonstrated strong top-line growth, with revenue surpassing ¥1 trillion for the first time in fiscal year 2023. Profitability is also on an upward trend, driven by its core financial services segment, particularly SBI Shinsei Bank, and a significant turnaround in its private equity investment business.
  • SBI’s forward-looking strategy involves significant investments in high-growth areas, both domestically and internationally, with a particular focus on Southeast Asia and the Middle East. The company aims to generate 20-30% of its consolidated profit from overseas businesses in the medium term.

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Lincoln Financial Group’s Big Bet on Annuities – Will It Pay Off?

By Baptista Research

  • Lincoln Financial Group’s second-quarter performance showed a year-over-year improvement in adjusted operating income, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of such growth.
  • The company reported robust results with a 32% increase in adjusted operating income, demonstrating momentum in its ongoing strategy to optimize operations and enhance profitability.
  • This positive trend reflects efforts to focus on risk-adjusted return on capital and reducing result volatility, although the economic backdrop remains subject to change, potentially influencing future results.

Primer: Equinix Inc (EQIX US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Equinix is the world’s largest data center and interconnection provider, structured as a REIT, and is a critical component of the global digital economy’s backbone.
  • The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on major secular growth trends, including artificial intelligence (AI), hybrid multi-cloud adoption, and enterprise digital transformation, which are driving robust demand for its services.
  • While facing risks from high capital intensity, competition, and legal scrutiny, Equinix’s extensive global platform, dense interconnection ecosystem, and strong recurring revenue model provide a durable competitive advantage.

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Primer: Blue Owl Capital (OWL US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Blue Owl is strategically positioned in the fastest-growing segments of alternative asset management, particularly direct lending and GP solutions, capitalizing on the secular shift of capital from public to private markets.
  • The company’s business model, anchored by a high concentration of permanent capital, provides a stable and predictable revenue stream through management fees, reducing volatility and supporting consistent growth in assets under management (AUM) and fee-related earnings (FRE).
  • Aggressive strategic acquisitions are expanding Blue Owl’s capabilities into high-demand sectors like digital infrastructure and real estate credit, which are expected to drive significant synergies and future growth, although they also introduce integration risks.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Xuanzhu Biopharmaceutical, Solventum, LakeShore Biopharma, Summit Therapeutics , Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.,, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals , Medtronic , Bristol-Myers Squibb , Biogen and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Xuanzhu Biopharm  (轩竹生物科技) Pre-IPO: Few Catalysts Left
  • Primer: Solventum (SOLV US) – Sep 2025
  • LakeShore Biopharma Faces Privatization Offer Amid Nasdaq Delisting and Market Overreaction
  • Primer: Summit Therapeutics (SMMT US) – Sep 2025
  • Pre-IPO Xuanzhu Biopharmaceutical (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Primer: Yunnan Baiyao Group Co., (000538 CH) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN UW) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Medtronic (MDT UN) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY UN) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Biogen (BIIB UW) – Sep 2025


Xuanzhu Biopharm  (轩竹生物科技) Pre-IPO: Few Catalysts Left

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Xuanzhu Biopharm, the biotech arm of HK-listed Sihuan Pharma, is seeking to raise at least USD 100m via a Hong Kong listing. The sole sponsor is CICC.
  • In previous insight, we looked at the company’s core products and key products, including XBP-3571, XZP-3287, and XZP-3621, and its management team and investor backing.
  • In this note, we look at the company’s PHIP updates.

Primer: Solventum (SOLV US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Newly Independent Company with Strong Market Positions: Solventum, a recent spin-off from 3M, is a global healthcare leader with established brands and significant market share in MedSurg, Dental Solutions, Health Information Systems, and Purification and Filtration. The company is poised to benefit from increased focus and tailored capital allocation strategies.
  • Financial Profile Presents Both Opportunities and Challenges: The company generates strong cash flow but is also saddled with a significant debt burden from the spin-off, making debt reduction a near-term priority. This could temper shareholder returns and strategic flexibility in the short term.
  • Path to Value Creation Hinges on Execution: Solventum‘s success will depend on its ability to accelerate organic growth, expand margins, and innovate in its core markets. The recent divestiture of the Purification & Filtration business is a key step in streamlining the portfolio and focusing on higher-growth areas.

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LakeShore Biopharma Faces Privatization Offer Amid Nasdaq Delisting and Market Overreaction

By Special Situation Investments

  • LakeShore Biopharma received a non-binding privatization offer of $0.86/share from a consortium including its controlling shareholder.
  • Crystal Peak Investments acquired a 51% stake at $0.71/share and seeks to buy remaining shares at $0.86/share.
  • Oceanpine Capital, a consortium member, has historical ties to LSBCF, with its managing director previously serving as chairman.

Primer: Summit Therapeutics (SMMT US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Summit Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company singularly focused on its lead asset, ivonescimab (SMT112), a novel, potentially first-in-class bispecific antibody targeting PD-1 and VEGF for the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).
  • The company’s strategy is heavily reliant on the success of its licensing partnership with Akeso Inc., which is responsible for the discovery and initial development of ivonescimab. Summit holds the rights for development and commercialization in the US, Canada, Europe, and Japan.
  • Financially, Summit is a pre-revenue entity with significant net losses driven by substantial R&D and clinical trial expenses. Its future is contingent on positive readouts from pivotal Phase III trials (HARMONi, HARMONi-3) and subsequent regulatory approvals, which face a highly competitive oncology market.

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Pre-IPO Xuanzhu Biopharmaceutical (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Three Core Products need to face fierce competition, and there’re other similar products being included in NRDL reimbursement or VBP. So, we’re not optimistic about the commercialization performance of Xuanzhu.
  • The A-share listing committee had doubts about Xuanzhu’s pipeline strength and future commercialization outlook. So, Xuanzhu’s A-share IPO failed. The peak sales of three core products could be just RMB800mn-1bn. 
  • Considering Xuanzhu’s unsatisfactory growth outlook, market value is just RMB2.4-3 billion. This means that Xuanzhu is overvalued, and reasonable valuation could be even lower than that after Series B Financing.

Primer: Yunnan Baiyao Group Co., (000538 CH) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Strong Brand Equity and Market Leadership: Yunnan Baiyao is a household name in China with a dominant position in the Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) sector, particularly with its core Yunnan Baiyao product line. The company has successfully leveraged its brand to diversify into high-growth consumer health products, such as toothpaste, where it holds a leading market share.
  • Diversified Business Model with Growth Potential: The company operates a vertically integrated model and has expanded from its core pharmaceutical business into health products, personal care, and TCM resources. This diversification provides multiple revenue streams and opportunities for future growth, with a strategic focus on innovation and expansion into new areas like medical aesthetics.
  • Solid Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns: Yunnan Baiyao has demonstrated consistent revenue growth and strong profitability. The company maintains a healthy financial position and has a track record of returning value to shareholders through dividends.

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Primer: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN UW) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Regeneron’s growth is propelled by the strong performance of its blockbuster drugs, Eylea and Dupixent, alongside a promising and extensive late-stage pipeline, particularly in oncology and immunology.
  • The company’s proprietary VelociSuite® technology platform serves as a significant competitive advantage, enabling the rapid and efficient discovery and development of novel, fully human antibody-based therapies.
  • Key challenges include heavy revenue concentration on Eylea and Dupixent, and the looming threat of biosimilar competition for Eylea, which could impact future revenue streams despite recent legal victories delaying entry.

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Primer: Medtronic (MDT UN) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Medtronic stands as a global leader in medical technology, with a highly diversified portfolio across Cardiovascular, Neuroscience, Medical Surgical, and Diabetes segments, which provides resilience and broad market reach.
  • The company is focused on driving growth through innovation in high-margin areas, including cardiac ablation, structural heart, surgical robotics (Hugo™ RAS system), and diabetes care (MiniMed™ 780G system), supported by a robust R&D pipeline.
  • While facing challenges such as intense competition, stringent regulatory hurdles, and supply chain complexities, Medtronic’s strong financial health, consistent dividend growth, and strategic focus on emerging markets position it for long-term value creation.

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Primer: Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY UN) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Bristol-Myers Squibb is a global biopharmaceutical company facing a significant patent cliff for key revenue drivers like Eliquis and Opdivo, creating near-term revenue headwinds.
  • The company’s strategy to mitigate these losses centers on its growing portfolio of new products, a robust R&D pipeline focused on oncology, immunology, and cardiovascular diseases, and strategic acquisitions to replenish its drug pipeline.
  • While navigating a challenging period of patent expirations and increasing competition, the company’s strong cash flow, commitment to its dividend, and investments in innovative platforms like cell therapy and radiopharmaceuticals present a long-term growth thesis.

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Primer: Biogen (BIIB UW) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Biogen is in a pivotal transition phase, shifting from its declining, legacy multiple sclerosis (MS) franchise to a new portfolio focused on high-unmet-need neurological and rare diseases.
  • Future growth hinges on the successful commercialization of its new products, primarily Leqembi for Alzheimer’s disease, Skyclarys for Friedreich’s ataxia, and Zurzuvae for postpartum depression. The uptake of these drugs has been gradual but is accelerating.
  • Under the leadership of CEO Christopher Viehbacher, the company is executing a significant cost-saving program, “Fit for Growth,”to improve profitability and fund strategic initiatives, including external collaborations and potential acquisitions to bolster its pipeline.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Alibaba, China Resources Beer Holdings, Cash Converters Intl, Hanon Systems, Dowlais Group , SJM Holdings, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Tata Consumer Products, Prosus NV, Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (9988 HK) Vs. Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX): Relative Value Options Play with Leverage
  • Heineken’s USD3.2 Bn Acqsn. Frothy Valuations. Why Are Asia’s Beer Champions Still Flat?
  • Cash Converters International – Reshaped for strong growth
  • Hanon Systems – A Rights Offering of 900 Billion Won
  • AAM-Dowlais: Short-Dated Arb with Double-Digit Annualised Return
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • GST Cut Lifts Outlook As Indian Tire Majors Navigate Weak Q1
  • Primer: Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Prosus NV (PRX SJ) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd (MOTHERSO IN) – Sep 2025


Alibaba (9988 HK) Vs. Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX): Relative Value Options Play with Leverage

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: Stat-arb models flag Alibaba (9988 HK) as overvalued versus the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), with the difference between implied volatility and option premium at historically high levels.
  • Highlight: An actionable trade setup — long HSI calls vs. short Alibaba calls — that captures relative value and introduces leverage through a ratio structure.
  • Why Read: This is a timely opportunity to combine a directional view with favorable volatility dynamics, offering asymmetric payoff potential.

Heineken’s USD3.2 Bn Acqsn. Frothy Valuations. Why Are Asia’s Beer Champions Still Flat?

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA) ’s US$3.2bn acquisition of beer, soft drinks, and retail assets in Central America at 11.6x EV/EBITDA highlights the valuation gap with Asian Beer Companies.
  • CR Beer’s strong 1H2025 recovery in sales and margins were powered by innovative product launches and digital channel sales. However it’s performance has drawn little market attention, yet.
  • China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)  trades near 10-year low EV/EBITDA, even as consensus expects solid margins and steady revenue growth ahead. Expect a valuation upside.

Cash Converters International – Reshaped for strong growth

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Cash Converters International (ASX:CCV) is a consumer finance company operating as a service provider, owner and franchisor of second-hand goods and financial services stores in Australia and internationally.
  • CCV is currently executing a clearly stated growth strategy involving the reshaping of its personal finance business complemented by growing its corporately-owned store network through acquisition.
  • The recent FY25 result was a strong representation of a business that is successfully transitioning and a good leading indicator of the changing business mix which should ultimately result in a business that is geographically broadened yet operating a simplified lending business, with a lower risk profile and improved growth funding optionality.

Hanon Systems – A Rights Offering of 900 Billion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • Hanon Systems announced that it has finalized a rights offering capital increase of 900 billion won. This capital raise will involve 347.5 million common shares (51.2% of outstanding shares)
  • The expected rights offering price is 2,590 won per share, which is 18.4% lower than current price of 3,175 won. 
  • We remain Negative on Hanon Systems (018880 KS). There is a high probability that this rights offering deal will likely be a dilutive deal for the Hanon System shareholders.

AAM-Dowlais: Short-Dated Arb with Double-Digit Annualised Return

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Dowlais shareholders receive £0.43 cash plus 0.0881 AAM shares, valuing the stock near 82p. Current price 79.75p leaves a 2.9% spread, annualising to ~11–13% returns.
  • Both shareholder votes passed and AAM secured $3bn funding, reducing execution risk. Regulatory approvals across the US, EU, China, Brazil, and Mexico remain the final gating conditions to completion.
  • Downside if deal fails: shares could re-rate to pre-announcement 68–75p, ~5–15% downside. Market sees limited overlap, so main risk is delayed approvals pushing closing into early 2026.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: SJM Holdings
  • UST yields climbed 2-3 bps across the curve yesterday, rising for the fourth straight day after the Fed’s rate cut last week. The UST curve bear flattened slightly, with the yield on the 2Y UST rising 3 bps to 3.60%, while that on the 10Y UST increased 2 bps to 4.15%. Equities climbed for a third straight day.
  • The S&P 500 edged up 0.4% to a fresh record high (for the 28th time this year) of 6,694, while the Nasdaq was up 0.7% at 22,789.

GST Cut Lifts Outlook As Indian Tire Majors Navigate Weak Q1

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Tire makers see profit pressure despite revenue gains  
  • JK Tyre eyes double-digit growth, expands global footprint  
  •  CEAT eyes expanding Chennai plant at US$51 million spend  

Primer: Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Transformation into a Diversified FMCG Major: Tata Consumer Products (TCPL) is aggressively diversifying beyond its core tea and salt businesses, moving into higher-growth categories like packaged foods (Tata Sampann), snacks (Tata Soulfull), and ready-to-drink beverages. Recent acquisitions of Capital Foods (Ching’s Secret, Smith & Jones) and Organic India significantly expand its total addressable market and enhance its presence in high-margin segments.
  • Strong Brand Equity and Distribution as Key Moats: The company leverages the immense trust associated with the ‘Tata’ brand, providing a significant competitive advantage. Its extensive distribution network, reaching millions of retail outlets, combined with a growing e-commerce presence, creates a formidable barrier to entry and a platform to scale new product launches and acquisitions effectively.
  • Focus on Premiumization and Innovation Driving Growth: TCPL is strategically focused on premiumizing its portfolio across categories, such as value-added salts and premium tea variants, to capture evolving consumer preferences and improve margins. A consistent pipeline of new product launches, particularly in health and wellness, caters to modern consumer trends and is a key driver of future growth.

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Primer: Prosus NV (PRX SJ) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Prosus is a global internet group with a vast portfolio of online companies, but its market value is predominantly influenced by its substantial stake in Chinese tech giant Tencent.
  • The company trades at a significant and persistent discount to its net asset value (NAV), a key challenge management is addressing through an open-ended share buyback program funded by the gradual sale of its Tencent shares.
  • A strategic pivot is underway, shifting from a passive investment holding company to an active operator aiming to drive its core e-commerce segments (Food Delivery, Classifieds, Fintech, and Edtech) to sustained profitability and unlock value independent of Tencent.

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Primer: Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd (MOTHERSO IN) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Global Automotive Component Leader with Diversified Operations: Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd. (SAMIL) is a leading global manufacturer of automotive components, with a well-diversified portfolio across products, geographies, and customers. The company is a key solutions provider to major automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) worldwide.
  • Strong Growth Trajectory and Ambitious Future Plans: The company has a proven track record of strong financial performance, characterized by consistent revenue and profit growth. SAMIL has laid out an ambitious ‘Vision 2030’ with a target of achieving $108 billion in revenue, driven by organic growth, strategic acquisitions, and diversification into non-automotive sectors.
  • Focus on Financial Prudence and Shareholder Returns: Despite its aggressive growth strategy, SAMIL maintains a focus on financial discipline, with a healthy leverage ratio and a commitment to improving its return on capital employed (ROCE). The company also has a stated policy of distributing a significant portion of its profits as dividends.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Larsen & Toubro , Jain Resource Recycling, Koninklijke Bam Groep Nv and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Primer: Larsen & Toubro (LTOD LI) – Sep 2025
  • Jain Resource Recycling Pre-IPO – Robust Growth but Inorganic Moves Lack Full Value
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 22 September (BAM Groep | Fugro)


Primer: Larsen & Toubro (LTOD LI) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Market Leader with Robust Order Book: Larsen & Toubro is a dominant player in India’s engineering and construction (E&C) sector with a record order book of ₹6.1 lakh crore as of June 2025, providing strong revenue visibility. A significant 46% of this order book is from international markets, particularly the Middle East, indicating successful geographical diversification.
  • Diversified Business Model Mitigates Risk: The company operates a well-diversified model across Infrastructure, Energy, Hi-Tech Manufacturing, IT & Technology Services (through LTIMindtree and L&T Technology Services), and Financial Services. This structure allows L&T to capture growth across various economic sectors and mitigate risks associated with the cyclicality of the E&C industry.
  • Strategic Focus on High-Growth Areas: L&T is strategically positioning itself for future growth by focusing on high-margin areas like green hydrogen, smart city technology, defense manufacturing, and digital services. The company’s new five-year plan emphasizes deepening its strengths in India and the Middle East while exploring these new, technology-driven opportunities.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Jain Resource Recycling Pre-IPO – Robust Growth but Inorganic Moves Lack Full Value

By Akshat Shah

  • Jain Resource Recycling (2300699D IN) is looking to raise about US$142m in its India IPO.
  • The company is primarily focused on manufacturing of non-ferrous metal products by recycling of non-ferrous metal scrap. It is also engaged in trading of non-ferrous metals and other commodities.
  • In this note, we take a quick look at the company’s past performance

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 22 September (BAM Groep | Fugro)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • BAM Group | Fehmarnbelt tunnel delayed 18 months • Fugro | withdraws financial guidance for 2025

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Zijin Gold, Gold, Altona Rare Earths, Crude Oil, Sayona Mining and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Zijin Gold IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations. For the Gold Bulls.
  • Zijin Gold IPO: Gold Price Sensitivity Analysis. A High Beta Proxy for Gold
  • Debating a New Up-Cycle
  • Altona Rare Earths
  • Oil Futures: Crude firmer as Europe steps up sanctions rhetoric
  • Zijin Gold International (紫金黄金国际) – Quality-Weighted Forward Valuation & Benchmarking
  • Elevra Lithium — A new chapter
  • Harnessing Calm Waters: A Volatility Strategy for Gold’s Quiet Ascent


Zijin Gold IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations. For the Gold Bulls.

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO offers investors with a bullish outlook on gold prices a timely entry into a pure play gold miner with a globally diversified asset base.
  • At HKD71.59/share, Zijin Gold IPO is set to raise US$3.2 billion with cornerstone investors already committing about half the deal (US$1.6 billion).
  • At current gold prices, IPO valuations leave a reasonable buffer; however, a pullback toward year-ago levels would pose significant downside.

Zijin Gold IPO: Gold Price Sensitivity Analysis. A High Beta Proxy for Gold

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Zijin Gold (2259 HK) ’s US$3.2 billion IPO closes tomorrow, Wednesday, September 29.
  • The pure-play gold miner, backed by Zijin Mining, is priced at an EV/Reserves multiple in the top quartile of global peers.
  • With high sensitivity to gold price movements, Zijin Gold offers amplified upside potential — and downside risk — versus bullion itself.

Debating a New Up-Cycle

By BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

  • Despite initial concerns about tariffs and policy uncertainty hurting global economy, many major metals have seen significant price gains this year
  • Tariffs have been implemented, but manufacturers have absorbed costs in margins rather than passing them on to consumers
  • Despite signs of economic strain in recent data, commodity prices remain strong due to US dollar weakness making commodities more affordable for importing countries

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Altona Rare Earths

By Optimo Capital

  • Altona Rare Earths is the successor to Altona Energy, which listed on AIM in 2005.
  • A new management team has wisely shifted the focus to critical minerals and decided to focus on the Monte Muambe Rare Earth Project, as it could quickly move into production.
  • Altona is being led by Africa-based CEO Cédric Simonet, who has an in-depth knowledge of the continent’s resources projects and is a trained geologist.

Oil Futures: Crude firmer as Europe steps up sanctions rhetoric

By Quantum Commodity Intelligence

  • Crude oil futures opened the week slightly firmer as traders continued to monitor disruptions to Russian flows amid ongoing attacks against infrastructure and sanctions threats.
  • Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $67.22/b (0735 BST) versus Friday’s settle of $66.68/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at  $62.90/b against a previous close of $62.40/b.
  • The prospect of tighter measures against Moscow was seen increasing with European leaders pushing for a wider rollout, including secondary tariffs.

Zijin Gold International (紫金黄金国际) – Quality-Weighted Forward Valuation & Benchmarking

By Rahul Jain

  • Quality-Weighted upside: IPO priced at ~8× EV/EBITDA (~US$24bn EV) but forward valuation points to ~US$38.5bn EV (~HK$121/sh), implying ~70% upside at spot gold.
  • Portfolio strength: Over 55% of 2027E EBITDA is anchored in world-class assets (Ghana, Buriticá, Raygorodok), positioning Zijin ahead of peers that deliver flat growth.
  • Stronger case than Sep 19 preview: incorporates the reserves uplift (~35 Moz vs. ~27 Moz), clearer project ramps, confirmed cornerstone demand, and new angles via asset benchmarking and quality-weighted valuation.

Elevra Lithium — A new chapter

By Edison Investment Research

Created through a merger of equals between Sayona Mining and Piedmont Lithium, Elevra Lithium (ELV) provides unparalleled exposure to the North American hard rock lithium market. The largest regional pure play spodumene producer, Elevra has a strong pipeline of advanced development projects, offering flexible growth, and is well positioned to benefit from the growing localisation of the lithium supply chain in the US. Trading at a large discount to peers on sales multiples, we see the potential for a meaningful value uplift once the company achieves profitability.


Harnessing Calm Waters: A Volatility Strategy for Gold’s Quiet Ascent

By Jay Cameron

  • Gold’s current low-volatility phase, following its ascent to all-time highs, presents a strategic vol trading opportunity. This environment is characterized by steady gains and reduced expected downside.
  • Recent market trends, including investor and institutional support levels, suggest that strategies designed to profit from time decay could be beneficial, noting the stability of physical flows, contained intraday volatility.
  • While a short-term trading regime focused on range consolidation is indicated, potential risks from geopolitical shifts or unexpected central bank communications could quickly reprice gold’s volatility. 

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Daily Brief Industrials: Larsen & Toubro , Jain Resource Recycling, Koninklijke Bam Groep Nv and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Primer: Larsen & Toubro (LTOD LI) – Sep 2025
  • Jain Resource Recycling Pre-IPO – Robust Growth but Inorganic Moves Lack Full Value
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 22 September (BAM Groep | Fugro)


Primer: Larsen & Toubro (LTOD LI) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Market Leader with Robust Order Book: Larsen & Toubro is a dominant player in India’s engineering and construction (E&C) sector with a record order book of ₹6.1 lakh crore as of June 2025, providing strong revenue visibility. A significant 46% of this order book is from international markets, particularly the Middle East, indicating successful geographical diversification.
  • Diversified Business Model Mitigates Risk: The company operates a well-diversified model across Infrastructure, Energy, Hi-Tech Manufacturing, IT & Technology Services (through LTIMindtree and L&T Technology Services), and Financial Services. This structure allows L&T to capture growth across various economic sectors and mitigate risks associated with the cyclicality of the E&C industry.
  • Strategic Focus on High-Growth Areas: L&T is strategically positioning itself for future growth by focusing on high-margin areas like green hydrogen, smart city technology, defense manufacturing, and digital services. The company’s new five-year plan emphasizes deepening its strengths in India and the Middle East while exploring these new, technology-driven opportunities.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Jain Resource Recycling Pre-IPO – Robust Growth but Inorganic Moves Lack Full Value

By Akshat Shah

  • Jain Resource Recycling (2300699D IN) is looking to raise about US$142m in its India IPO.
  • The company is primarily focused on manufacturing of non-ferrous metal products by recycling of non-ferrous metal scrap. It is also engaged in trading of non-ferrous metals and other commodities.
  • In this note, we take a quick look at the company’s past performance

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 22 September (BAM Groep | Fugro)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • BAM Group | Fehmarnbelt tunnel delayed 18 months • Fugro | withdraws financial guidance for 2025

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars