Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Sep 08

Daily Brief Australia: Tuas Ltd, Macquarie Group, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Iron Ore and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2025): New Methodology & The Many Changes
Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (8 Sep)
Bank of Queensland (BOQ AU) Vs. CBA (CBA AU): Quant-Driven Pair Trade Following Potential Overshoot
Iron Ore At 105 USD/Ton: Sweet Spot for Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2025): New Methodology & The Many Changes

By Brian Freitas

There is 1 change for the S&P/ASX50 Index, 3 changes for the S&P/ASX100 Index, 9 changes for the S&P/ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) and 17 adds/ 12 deletes for the S&P/ASX300 Index.
Some of the index changes will also have same way flows from trackers of other global and sector indices on the same day.
The adds have outperformed the deletes across all indices and performance has been especially strong for the S&P/ASX100 Index and S&P/ASX300 Index changes.

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (8 Sep)

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
Highlights: Currently six pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors persist.
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

Bank of Queensland (BOQ AU) Vs. CBA (CBA AU): Quant-Driven Pair Trade Following Potential Overshoot

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: The Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU) vs. Commonwealth Bank (CBA AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: Going long Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU) and short Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) targets a 4% return, with Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU) supported by cheaper valuations.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Iron Ore At 105 USD/Ton: Sweet Spot for Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

By Sameer Taneja

We are now set for a decline in the benchmark grade from 62% to 61% effective January 2nd, 2026, for Platts, aligning the benchmark with more commonly traded fines.
Alot of exchanges have begun to adopt this change, and we will update our FY26 numbers for it as well. Iron ore remains elevated at 105 USD/ton, climbing 2.3% WoW.
We continue to advocate strongly for Fenix Resources (FEX AU). Read Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again for a detailed outline of our thesis.

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Sep 08

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Short Interest Weekly: China Hongqiao and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

HK Short Interest Weekly: China Hongqiao, Xiaomi, Meituan, Hua Hong Semiconductor
A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 5th): China Zheshang Bank, China Communications Construction, Goldwind
TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 29th): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Delta Electronics, Quanta Computer
KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 5th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, NAVER, HYUNDAI ROTEM, Mobis
Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Sep 5th): Sime Darby, IJM, Telekom Malaysia, Icon Offshore, UEM Sunrise
HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 5th): Alibaba, Ping An Insurance, Xiaomi, Tencent, Pop Mart Intl
Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Sep 5th): Intouch, Kasikornbank, Bangkok Dusit, Supalai
TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Sep 5th): Jentech Precision Industrial, Wiwynn, Realtek Semiconductor

HK Short Interest Weekly: China Hongqiao, Xiaomi, Meituan, Hua Hong Semiconductor

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 29th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in TraHK HSI ETF, China Hongqiao, Xiaomi, Meituan, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Horizon Robotics.

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 5th): China Zheshang Bank, China Communications Construction, Goldwind

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 60.1% as of Sep 5th.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.9ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, energy, health care and offset by real estate, consumer discretionary.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Zheshang Bank, China Communications Construction, Goldwind, Weichai Power.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 29th): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Delta Electronics, Quanta Computer

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 29th. The aggregated holding was USD1,163.6bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD428mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Delta Electronics, Quanta Computer, Global Unichip, TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Global Unichip, Delta Electronics, Quanta Computer.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 5th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, NAVER, HYUNDAI ROTEM, Mobis

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Sep 5th. The aggregated holding was USD644.3bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD33mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, NAVER, HYUNDAI ROTEM, Mobis.

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Sep 5th): Sime Darby, IJM, Telekom Malaysia, Icon Offshore, UEM Sunrise

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Sep 5th. The aggregated short interest is USD368m.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Sime Darby, IJM, Telekom Malaysia, Icon Offshore, UEM Sunrise.

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 5th): Alibaba, Ping An Insurance, Xiaomi, Tencent, Pop Mart Intl

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 5th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, Ping An Insurance, Xiaomi, Tencent, Pop Mart Intl, Shandong Gold Mining, Horizon Robotics, ZTE, China Hongqiao, Kuaishou.

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Sep 5th): Intouch, Kasikornbank, Bangkok Dusit, Supalai

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Sep 5th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.3bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Intouch, Kasikornbank, Bangkok Dusit, Supalai, Advanced Info Service, Kasikornbank, Bangkok Dusit, Advanced Info Service, Supalai.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Sep 5th): Jentech Precision Industrial, Wiwynn, Realtek Semiconductor

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Sep 5th. The aggregated short interest was USD25.8bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Jentech Precision Industrial, Wiwynn, Realtek Semiconductor, Hon Hai Precision, Kaori Heat Treatment, Jentech Precision Industrial, Wiwynn, Realtek Semiconductor, Hon Hai Precision, Kaori Heat Treatment.

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Sep 08

Daily Brief ESG: Will Change to Annual Securities Report Improve in % of Female Managers and Gender Wage Gap? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

Will Change to Annual Securities Report Improve in % of Female Managers and Gender Wage Gap?

Will Change to Annual Securities Report Improve in % of Female Managers and Gender Wage Gap?

By Aki Matsumoto

Information regarding ％ of female managers and gender wage gap, which were previously required to be disclosed in annual securities reports, will move to the “Sustainability Philosophy and Initiatives” section.
This change in description will make issues such as % of female managers and gender wage gap more clear, thereby improving the inconsistencies with the company’s goals and policies.
Since disclosure of compensation incentives for employees other than board members will be required, this may encourage more companies to introduce compensation incentives for non-board members employees.

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Sep 08

Daily Brief South Korea: S&T Holdings, Myungin Pharmaceutical and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Regarding the Six KRX Sector Names that Ran Ahead of Friday’s Official Review Drop
Myungin Pharm Pre-IPO: Discount to Peers; Potential Succession Planning

Regarding the Six KRX Sector Names that Ran Ahead of Friday’s Official Review Drop

By Sanghyun Park

Six names stood out with simultaneous volume spikes and sharp pops last Friday; all Semis and Autos additions with big passive impact, while all others showed no tape action.
Results likely leaked early, prompting front-running on Semis and Autos adds—high passive impact names—causing Friday’s sharp volume and price spikes.
Early movers are mostly priced in; Thursday momentum plays still work, but Monday–Thursday morning requires caution. Focus on volume-driven flows before loading positions, long-short basket viable for other passive-impact names.

Myungin Pharm Pre-IPO: Discount to Peers; Potential Succession Planning

By Nicholas Tan

Myungin Pharmaceutical (MYUNGIN KS) is looking to raise up to US$142m in its upcoming Korean IPO.
It specializes in central nervous system (CNS) therapeutics and boasts an extensive product line-up of over 200 CNS products.
In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

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Sep 08

Daily Brief United States: Figma, Copper, TaskUs, Kraft Heinz Co and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Figma (FIG.US): 2Q’FY25 Earnings Review. Strong Quarter, But Margins Will Contract In the Near Term
Copper All Set To Break 10k USD/Ton In The Short-Term
TaskUs Privatization Faces Opposition Amid Potential for Improved Offer and Valuation Discrepancies
Weekly Update (CON, HNZ, BRSL)

Figma (FIG.US): 2Q’FY25 Earnings Review. Strong Quarter, But Margins Will Contract In the Near Term

By Andrei Zakharov

California based Figma Inc. reported another strong quarter, but shares sold off over 20% given an early lockup release of some ~11.4M Class A shares.
I estimate ~$630M worth of Figma shares became eligible for sale on the second trading day immediately following public release of earnings for the 2Q’FY25.
I think selling pressure in Figma stock is expected to ease as valuation improved and VC shareholders agreed to extend their lockup with respect to ~54% of Class A shares.

Copper All Set To Break 10k USD/Ton In The Short-Term

By Sameer Taneja

This is a follow-up on our piece 10 days ago Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton.
Copper, trading above USD 9,800/ton, appears poised to breach USD 10,000/ton; prospective rate cuts and supply deficits support upside, partially offset by elevated exchange inventories.
Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) are our favorite names. The restart of the Cobre Panama mine (although low probability) could boost First Quantum Minerals (FM CN).

TaskUs Privatization Faces Opposition Amid Potential for Improved Offer and Valuation Discrepancies

By Special Situation Investments

TaskUs is being privatized by Blackstone and founders at $16.50/share, opposed by activists and ISS, expecting improved offer.
TaskUs projects $75-$120 million free cash flow in 2025, potentially funding the buyout with minimal additional investment.
TaskUs specializes in premium BPO services, showing strong growth in Trust & Safety and AI Services segments, less vulnerable to automation.

Weekly Update (CON, HNZ, BRSL)

By Richard Howe

On September 2, 2025, Kraft Heinz (KHC) announced that it will be breaking up into two companies.
The news comes a decade after the infamous merger of two of the biggest names in packaged foods that was orchestrated by Warren Buffett and Brazilian private equity firm 3G Capital Partners.
North American Grocery Co would encompass many of the traditional Kraft products.

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Sep 08

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Regarding the Six KRX Sector Names that Ran Ahead of Friday’s Official Review Drop and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Regarding the Six KRX Sector Names that Ran Ahead of Friday’s Official Review Drop
Merger Arb Mondays (08 Sep) – Kangji, OneConnect, Ashimori, Pacific Ind, RPM, Santos, Zeekr
Weekly Deals Digest (07 Sep) – Pacific Industrial, Ashimori, Shibaura, Kangji Medical, Chery, Hesai
[Japan M&A] Pacific Industrial (7250) The MBO Is Extended After Effissimo Buys Above Terms
BBVA-Sabadell: Deal Launches Underwater, Arbitrage Still Asymmetric
TaskUs Privatization Faces Opposition Amid Potential for Improved Offer and Valuation Discrepancies
Weekly Update (CON, HNZ, BRSL)

Regarding the Six KRX Sector Names that Ran Ahead of Friday’s Official Review Drop

By Sanghyun Park

Six names stood out with simultaneous volume spikes and sharp pops last Friday; all Semis and Autos additions with big passive impact, while all others showed no tape action.
Results likely leaked early, prompting front-running on Semis and Autos adds—high passive impact names—causing Friday’s sharp volume and price spikes.
Early movers are mostly priced in; Thursday momentum plays still work, but Monday–Thursday morning requires caution. Focus on volume-driven flows before loading positions, long-short basket viable for other passive-impact names.

Merger Arb Mondays (08 Sep) – Kangji, OneConnect, Ashimori, Pacific Ind, RPM, Santos, Zeekr

By Arun George

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Joy City Property (207 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP).

Weekly Deals Digest (07 Sep) – Pacific Industrial, Ashimori, Shibaura, Kangji Medical, Chery, Hesai

By Arun George

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Chery Automobile (CH3456 CH) and Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) IPOs. Hesai Group (HSAI US) H Share listing.
Event-Driven developments: Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK), Johns Lyng (JLG AU), RPMGlobal.

[Japan M&A] Pacific Industrial (7250) The MBO Is Extended After Effissimo Buys Above Terms

By Travis Lundy

Activist-Ish-Y investor Effissimo reported Friday they had a 6.68% stake as of the end of August.
Their average price is ¥2,253 which is 10% through the price the family Bidco was bidding (¥2,050).
As this hasn’t traded below terms at any point since announcement, an extension was likely. This morning, we got one. We’ll get another one before it’s done, BUT…

BBVA-Sabadell: Deal Launches Underwater, Arbitrage Still Asymmetric

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA’s bid goes live on 8 Sept, but a –8.71% spread and poor optics keep tactical long SAB / short BBVA trades attractive.
Sabadell continues to boost standalone appeal via dividends, TSB sale, and strategic capital returns, reducing shareholder incentive to tender at current terms.
Legal overhang and merger restrictions extend into 2028, capping synergies and reinforcing the asymmetry in event-driven positioning ahead of potential bid adjustments.

TaskUs Privatization Faces Opposition Amid Potential for Improved Offer and Valuation Discrepancies

By Special Situation Investments

TaskUs is being privatized by Blackstone and founders at $16.50/share, opposed by activists and ISS, expecting improved offer.
TaskUs projects $75-$120 million free cash flow in 2025, potentially funding the buyout with minimal additional investment.
TaskUs specializes in premium BPO services, showing strong growth in Trust & Safety and AI Services segments, less vulnerable to automation.

Weekly Update (CON, HNZ, BRSL)

By Richard Howe

On September 2, 2025, Kraft Heinz (KHC) announced that it will be breaking up into two companies.
The news comes a decade after the infamous merger of two of the biggest names in packaged foods that was orchestrated by Warren Buffett and Brazilian private equity firm 3G Capital Partners.
North American Grocery Co would encompass many of the traditional Kraft products.

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Sep 08

Daily Brief India: Blue Jet Healthcare Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

Blue Jet Healthcare: Pureplay Intermediates CDMO. Recent Correction Overdone, Good for Fresh Bet

Blue Jet Healthcare: Pureplay Intermediates CDMO. Recent Correction Overdone, Good for Fresh Bet

By Himanshu Dugar

BLUEJET is a pure-play API/CDMO with strong positioning in contrast media intermediates. Further, it has demonstrated R&D and execution capabilities by commercialising 15+ molecules (oncology, CVS, CNS) under CDMO model.
Its share price has corrected by ~35% since July end, after below expectation June quarter results exacerbated by weak export data amid tariff concerns. However, August numbers alleviated some concerns.
Shares now trade at 30x FY26 PE, the lower end of 30-60x range where peers currently trade at. Company has high visibility for 20+% earnings growth for the medium term.

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Sep 08

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | PM Ishiba Resigns and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | PM Ishiba Resigns
Quick Note: The US Easing Trade: Buy Asia Leveraged Developers and REITs, NWD, COLI, SHKP, Link REIT
Japan Morning Connection: Ishiba Heads for the Door (Finally) And Markets Pointing Higher

Ohayo Japan | PM Ishiba Resigns

By Mark Chadwick

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation less than a year into his term, citing responsibility for the ruling coalition’s upper house defeat
US stocks retreated Friday after a weak August jobs report reinforced expectations of imminent interest-rate cuts
Hitachi will invest over 150 billion yen in the US, primarily through its subsidiary Hitachi Energy

Quick Note: The US Easing Trade: Buy Asia Leveraged Developers and REITs, NWD, COLI, SHKP, Link REIT

By Jacob Cheng

According to latest, market is pricing in an 89% probability of 1 rate cut (25bps) and 11% probability of 2 rate cuts (50bps) in upcoming September FOMC meeting
We think the easing trade is still happening. Under this macro backdrop, Asia listed developers and REITs will benefit from linked interest rate movements
In particular, developers with high gearing will benefit the most. Buy NWD, COLI, SHKP, Link REIT on the back of attractive valuation

Japan Morning Connection: Ishiba Heads for the Door (Finally) And Markets Pointing Higher

By Andrew Jackson

Japan heads for its 4th Prime Minister since 2020 with Ishiba failing to turn many of his election pledges into reality.
Broadcom OpenAI order sends tech higher, with NVDA and AMD weakness likely short-lived.
US Jobs print sends yields sharply lower and Homebuilders up.

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Sep 08

Daily Brief Japan: Marubeni Corp, Metaplanet, Pacific Industrial, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Marubeni Corporation (TSE: 8002) – Copper Torque, Platform Pivot, and Cash Returns
ECM Weekly (8 September 2025)- Metaplanet, Lifedrink, Koei, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Hesai, Chery
Weekly Deals Digest (07 Sep) – Pacific Industrial, Ashimori, Shibaura, Kangji Medical, Chery, Hesai
[Japan M&A] Pacific Industrial (7250) The MBO Is Extended After Effissimo Buys Above Terms
Will Change to Annual Securities Report Improve in % of Female Managers and Gender Wage Gap?

Marubeni Corporation (TSE: 8002) – Copper Torque, Platform Pivot, and Cash Returns

By Rahul Jain

Marubeni is a top-five Japanese trading house, diversified across resources, food, leasing, power, and chemicals.
Management is deploying ~¥1.2tn capex through FY30, tilted toward copper expansion in Chile and renewables growth.
Shares trade at ~11x P/E and 7–8% FCF yield with ~5% cash return yield, offering value on dips below ¥3,000.

ECM Weekly (8 September 2025)- Metaplanet, Lifedrink, Koei, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Hesai, Chery

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, a few US$1bn+ IPOs are said to be looking to launch later this month, across regions.
On the placements front, deals continue to flow through as the market remains receptive.

Weekly Deals Digest (07 Sep) – Pacific Industrial, Ashimori, Shibaura, Kangji Medical, Chery, Hesai

By Arun George

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Chery Automobile (CH3456 CH) and Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) IPOs. Hesai Group (HSAI US) H Share listing.
Event-Driven developments: Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK), Johns Lyng (JLG AU), RPMGlobal.

[Japan M&A] Pacific Industrial (7250) The MBO Is Extended After Effissimo Buys Above Terms

By Travis Lundy

Activist-Ish-Y investor Effissimo reported Friday they had a 6.68% stake as of the end of August.
Their average price is ¥2,253 which is 10% through the price the family Bidco was bidding (¥2,050).
As this hasn’t traded below terms at any point since announcement, an extension was likely. This morning, we got one. We’ll get another one before it’s done, BUT…

Will Change to Annual Securities Report Improve in % of Female Managers and Gender Wage Gap?

By Aki Matsumoto

Information regarding ％ of female managers and gender wage gap, which were previously required to be disclosed in annual securities reports, will move to the “Sustainability Philosophy and Initiatives” section.
This change in description will make issues such as % of female managers and gender wage gap more clear, thereby improving the inconsistencies with the company’s goals and policies.
Since disclosure of compensation incentives for employees other than board members will be required, this may encourage more companies to introduce compensation incentives for non-board members employees.

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Sep 08

Daily Brief China: Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd., Chery Automobile, Tencent, Pop Mart, Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group, SHEIN and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (08 Sep) – Kangji, OneConnect, Ashimori, Pacific Ind, RPM, Santos, Zeekr
Chery Automobile IPO: The Bear Case
Volatility Cones: Spotting Opportunities in Tencent, JD.com, Ping An & More
Pop Mart (9992 HK) – 2025 High Growth Is a Done Deal, but How About 2026?
MicroPort MedBot (2252 HK): Overseas Markets Shine; Tuomai Drives Growth; Losses Narrow in 1H25
SHEIN / Temu / AliExpress: After US Ended “De Minimis” Exemption, Shipments to US Declined 81%

Merger Arb Mondays (08 Sep) – Kangji, OneConnect, Ashimori, Pacific Ind, RPM, Santos, Zeekr

By Arun George

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Joy City Property (207 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP).

Chery Automobile IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

Chery Automobile (CH3456 CH), a Chinese automobile manufacturer, has secured HKEx listing approval for a US$1.5-2.0 billion IPO.
In Chery Automobile IPO: The Bull Case, I highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, I outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on weakening trends of the primary business, gross margin pressure, declining contract liabilities and factoring of receivables.

Volatility Cones: Spotting Opportunities in Tencent, JD.com, Ping An & More

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.
Highlights: Major stocks, including Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK), and Meituan (3690 HK), trade at historically cheap implied volatility. Upcoming earnings are starting to be reflected in November IV.
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.

Pop Mart (9992 HK) – 2025 High Growth Is a Done Deal, but How About 2026?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The certainty of 2025 performance is actually high. 25H2 performance is expected to be better than that in 25H1. Our forecast is net profit to reach RMB10 billion in 2025.
The concern is Pop Mart may face the sustainability problem of performance under the high base of 2025 starting from 2026. If consumers develop aesthetic fatigue towards LABUBU, performance would decline.
In a neutral situation, 30-35x P/E is a comfortable range.Valuation upside depends more on the sustainability of THE MONSTERS popularity and whether the popularity of other IPs can exceed expectations.

MicroPort MedBot (2252 HK): Overseas Markets Shine; Tuomai Drives Growth; Losses Narrow in 1H25

By Tina Banerjee

Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group (2252 HK) recorded 1H25 revenue of RMB 176M, up 77% YoY driven by rapid expansion of commercialization of multiple products. Overseas market sales grew 189% YoY.
Toumai Laparoscopic Surgical Robot continued to be the main growth driver securing new orders of 30+ units and achieving commercial installation of 22 units.
MedBot’s recent approvals of Toumai variants, technology advantages, diversified portfolio and commercialization strength place it at an inflection point, expected to be back in the black soon.

SHEIN / Temu / AliExpress: After US Ended “De Minimis” Exemption, Shipments to US Declined 81%

By Daniel Hellberg

Postal parcel volume bound for the US fell -81% after exemption ended Aug 29
In many cases, logistics providers unwilling to manage US Customs process
We believe the change undermines US model used by SHEIN, Temu, AliExpress

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