Category

Daily Briefs

Aug 06
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: NextDecade Corp, Base Oil, Ring Energy Inc, Serica Energy, TRX Gold , Vista Energy SAB de CV and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on NextDecade (NEXT) – August 4, 2025
  • Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August
  • Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August
  • Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August
  • Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 4 August
  • Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August
  • Ring Energy, Inc: Estimate Update
  • Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Robust 1H25 Cashflow Ahead of Production Boost in 2H25.
  • TRX Gold Corporation is a gold producer operating the Buckreef Gold Mine in Tanzania under a joint venture with the State Mining Corporation (“STAMICO”).
  • Vista Energy Reported a Transformational Second Quarter in 2025.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on NextDecade (NEXT) – August 4, 2025

By Water Tower Research

  • Last week, the WTR Sustainable Index was down 5.7% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 2.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 4.2%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.2%).
  • Energy Technology (40% of the index) was down 5.2%, while Transportation Solutions (33% of the index) was down 5.0%, Climate Tech and Clean Tech (20% of the index) was down 4.2%, and Climate Tech Mining and Processing (7% of the index) was down 17.3%.
  • Top 10 Performers: NXHSF, LISMF, KARX, AMSC, GNRC, AWLIF, NWTN, TPCS, CPSH, GRDAF

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils demand likely to stay lower amid signs of healthy availability of supply.
  • Healthy availability of supply, buyers’ sufficient stocks and seasonal slowdown in consumption incentivize buyers to hold back.
  • Ongoing fall in US base oils export prices adds to signs of weaker domestic demand.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils export price-premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices extends fall at end-July 2025.
  • Weaker base oils export margins and signs of rising surplus supply could incentivize refiners to adjust output.
  • Steadier domestic base oils margins, and steady removal of surplus supplies in overseas markets, could instead curb any such moves.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils demand could get support from moves to lock in supplies to meet seasonal pick-up in demand during final weeks of Q3 2025.
  • Demand could have already got steady underlying support in recent weeks because of tighter-than-expected supply-demand fundamentals at start of Q3 2025.
  • Persistently tighter fundamentals could prompt buyers to maintain higher stocks until they are confident about any sustained improvement in supply.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 4 August

By Iain Pocock

  • Global base oils prices mostly fall relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices, with export values under more pressure.
  • Even at lower levels, price-differentials mostly hold at levels that sustain incentive for refiners to maintain output of most base oils grades.
  • FOB Asia base oils cargo prices hold steady versus Singapore gasoil.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s Group II heavy-grade base oils price-premium to gasoil holds steady at lower level, close to levels in Q4 2024.
  • Lower heavy-grade base oils margins and falling regional cargo price point to weaker supply-demand fundamentals.
  • Even at lower level, price-premium remains at level that incentivizes refiners to maintain steady output of the product.

Ring Energy, Inc: Estimate Update

By Water Tower Research

  • We are updating our estimates to reflect actual 2Q25 benchmark oil and natural gas prices.
  • Our NYMEX reference prices averaged $63.68/bbl for oil and $3.51/MMBtu for natural gas.
  • Our 2Q25 total production estimate is 21.5 Mboe/d, including 14.2 MBo/d of oil. 

Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Robust 1H25 Cashflow Ahead of Production Boost in 2H25.

By Auctus Advisors

  • While 1H25 production was only 24.7 mboe/d with BKR producing 16.7 mboe/d, Serica’s FY25 production guidance of 33-35 mboe/d implies a significant 2H25 uplift to 41.3–45.3 mboe/d, as Triton ramps up to full production and BKR rebounds.
  • We continue to forecast 4Q25 production of ~48 mboe/d, supported by expected contributions of 21– 22 mboe/d from BKR and ~25 mboe/d from Triton.
  • Production in 2H25 will benefit from new wells coming onstream as a result of Triton drilling, with five successful well delivered nearly a month ahead of schedule and ~US$31 mm under budget. 

TRX Gold Corporation is a gold producer operating the Buckreef Gold Mine in Tanzania under a joint venture with the State Mining Corporation (“STAMICO”).

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • TRX Gold Corporation is a gold producer operating the Buckreef Gold Mine in Tanzania under a joint venture with the State Mining Corporation (“STAMICO”).
  • An investment in the Company gives leverage to a growing production profile based on a sound PEA business plan, capitalizing on higher gold prices and the ability to be self-funded.
  • This plan sees production growth from 27,000 to over 90,000 ounces per year over the next five years.

Vista Energy Reported a Transformational Second Quarter in 2025.

By Baptista Research

  • Vista Energy reported a transformational second quarter in 2025.
  • The company’s acquisition of a 50% stake in La Amarga Chica has significantly expanded its production capacity, making it the largest independent oil producer and exporter in Argentina.
  • In Q2 2025, Vista reported a substantial increase in total production, which reached 118,000 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day, reflecting an 81% year-over-year growth.

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Aug 06
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Genting Bhd, Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk PT, Alibaba, Luckin Coffee, Beijing Roborock Technology , Smithfield Foods, Herbalife Ltd, Decollte Holdings, Beenos Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Southeast Asia: Potential Global Index Deletions in August
  • Unicharm Indonesia : Value Proposition
  • Hong Kong 2025 Placements – Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements
  • [Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$45) TP Change]:Solid Execution Showcases Consolidator Potential
  • Beijing Roborock A/H Listing: Leader in Its Niche but Tariffs and Competition Risks
  • Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD) Six Month Summary: Rough Start with a Resilient IPO Turnaround
  • Herbalife Ltd: Pro2col Beta Reveal Provides Deeper Insights into Herbalife 3.0
  • Decollte Holdings (7372 JP): Q3 FY09/25 flash update
  • Beenos Inc (3328 JP): Q3 FY09/25 flash update

Southeast Asia: Potential Global Index Deletions in August

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 4 stocks listed in Malaysia and Thailand that could be deleted from passive portfolios in August.
  • There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$70m flow and between 10.7-44.5x ADV.
  • The positioning in most stocks does not cover the estimated passive selling and there could be more selling over the next few weeks.

Unicharm Indonesia : Value Proposition

By Punit Khanna

  • Unicharm Indonesia looks very attractive on the basis os excess cash on its books and cash flow it generates. Trades at <1x EV?EBDITA
  • Its number 1 diaper and feminine pads company which is facing earnings headwinds
  • Any plans by the management to return cash, consumer demand recovery can lead to rerating in the stock.

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Hong Kong 2025 Placements – Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements

By Sumeet Singh

  • 2025 has seen a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024.
  • Most of the 2025 placements have been primary raising and have come from a handful of sectors/backdrops.
  • In this note, we try to identify the possible primary placements that could take place over the rest of the year.

[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$45) TP Change]:Solid Execution Showcases Consolidator Potential

By Eric Wen

  • Luckin reported C2Q25 revenue 9%/11% higher than our est./cons., and non-GAAP OP 37%/17% higher than our est./cons., driven by the extra demand from food delivery platforms’ promotional campaigns. 
  • As we now expect the food delivery war to persist, we raise Luckin’s C2H25 revenue/OP estimate by 6%/18% and raise the TP to US$45.
  • Luckin, however, managed margin and expenses well to deliver the profit beat;

Beijing Roborock A/H Listing: Leader in Its Niche but Tariffs and Competition Risks

By Nicholas Tan

  • Beijing Roborock Technology (688169 CH), a robot vacuum maker, aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share listing.
  • It was founded in 2014, backed by Xiaomi, and is a global leader in intelligent home robotics.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD) Six Month Summary: Rough Start with a Resilient IPO Turnaround

By IPO Boutique

  • The company priced 26.08 million shares at $20.00—a reduced offering from the original 34.8 million shares and below the initial $23–$27 range.
  • Since then, Smithfield has staged a steady and impressive climb. On Monday, shares reached a new post-IPO high of $25.22—a 26% gain from the issue price.
  • A lesson can be learned: when the market punishes early entries, strong fundamentals and time can still pave the road to recovery.

Herbalife Ltd: Pro2col Beta Reveal Provides Deeper Insights into Herbalife 3.0

By Water Tower Research

  • We attended the Herbalife North America Extravaganza held in late July in Arlington, Texas, which is a large, in-person annual distributor event.
  • The highlight of the event was the reveal of the beta version of company’s new Pro2col™ health and wellness digital platform, providing greater insight into HLF’s next evolution into its vision of becoming the world’s premier health and wellness company, community, and platform.
  • The launch of Pro2col should be as impactful to Herbalife 3.0 as the launch of the Formula 1 Healthy Meal product line under the weight management category was to Herbalife 1.0 and the expansion into the adjacent active and lifestyle nutrition categories, particularly sports nutrition with the Herbalife24® product line, was to Herbalife 2.0.

Decollte Holdings (7372 JP): Q3 FY09/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • The company reported revenue of JPY4.7bn (+8.4% YoY) and operating profit of JPY446mn (+60.3% YoY) in Q3 FY09/25.
  • Photo wedding services saw revenue rise by JPY319mn (+7.8% YoY), with photo shoots up 6.7% YoY.
  • The fitness gym business experienced a 21.0% YoY revenue drop due to the closure of the Ashiya store.

Beenos Inc (3328 JP): Q3 FY09/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Q2 FY09/24 results show a 1.0% YoY decrease in GMV to JPY84.9bn and a 30.7% YoY revenue decline.
  • In Q3 FY09/25, GMV increased due to cross-border e-commerce initiatives, despite foreign exchange challenges affecting user demand.
  • BEENOS achieved 78.6% of GMV, 76.8% of revenue, 91.2% of operating profit, and 85.4% of net income targets.

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Aug 06
0

Daily Brief Macro: Payrolls Challenge Resilient Narrative and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Payrolls Challenge Resilient Narrative
  • US Dollar 2H25 Recovery To Continue
  • CX Daily: Stablecoins Face Reality Check as Tech Gaps and Policy Firewalls Mount
  • Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August
  • Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August
  • Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 4 August
  • Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 4 August
  • Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August
  • Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August

Payrolls Challenge Resilient Narrative

By Phil Rush

  • Revisions drove payrolls into a stagnation that runs contrary to our narrative of rolling resilience, but some contributors are spurious and don’t break the broader strength.
  • Seasonal adjustment caused 76k of the 258k revision. State and local education workers represented 108k, and are lower since April, despite the DOE closure shifting jobs here.
  • Payrolls still grow by 1% y-o-y, like household employment, with JOLTs data fine and the unemployment rate stable. The Fed should resist cutting without follow-through.

US Dollar 2H25 Recovery To Continue

By Sharmila Whelan

  • Our out-of-consensus forecast for the U.S. dollar trade-weighted index to strengthen in the second half is playing out
  • Maintain an overweight position in unhedged U.S. equities and expect the Fed to cut interest rates by only 25 bps in 2025, providing additional support for the U.S. dollar.
  • The biggest long term challenge to the US dollar is not gold but stablecoin and the changing global economic and geopolitical order.

CX Daily: Stablecoins Face Reality Check as Tech Gaps and Policy Firewalls Mount

By Caixin Global

  • Stablecoins /Cover Story: Stablecoins face reality check as tech gaps and policy firewalls mount
  • China-U.S. /In Depth: China, U.S. race to deny the other economic leverage
  • Involution /: China acts to stamp out ‘involution’ and unfair competition

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils demand likely to stay lower amid signs of healthy availability of supply.
  • Healthy availability of supply, buyers’ sufficient stocks and seasonal slowdown in consumption incentivize buyers to hold back.
  • Ongoing fall in US base oils export prices adds to signs of weaker domestic demand.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s Group II heavy-grade base oils price-premium to gasoil holds steady at lower level, close to levels in Q4 2024.
  • Lower heavy-grade base oils margins and falling regional cargo price point to weaker supply-demand fundamentals.
  • Even at lower level, price-premium remains at level that incentivizes refiners to maintain steady output of the product.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 4 August

By Iain Pocock

  • Group II heavy-grade base oils premium to light grades is almost the same in US, Europe and Asia markets at same time and for first time in more than five years.
  • Similar price-spreads in all those markets contrast with diverging fundamentals driving those similar price-spreads, especially in Europe.
  • Similar price-spreads in US vs other markets follow sustained weakness of US heavy-grade prices because of persistent surplus supply.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 4 August

By Iain Pocock

  • Global base oils prices mostly fall relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices, with export values under more pressure.
  • Even at lower levels, price-differentials mostly hold at levels that sustain incentive for refiners to maintain output of most base oils grades.
  • FOB Asia base oils cargo prices hold steady versus Singapore gasoil.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils export price-premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices extends fall at end-July 2025.
  • Weaker base oils export margins and signs of rising surplus supply could incentivize refiners to adjust output.
  • Steadier domestic base oils margins, and steady removal of surplus supplies in overseas markets, could instead curb any such moves.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils demand could get support from moves to lock in supplies to meet seasonal pick-up in demand during final weeks of Q3 2025.
  • Demand could have already got steady underlying support in recent weeks because of tighter-than-expected supply-demand fundamentals at start of Q3 2025.
  • Persistently tighter fundamentals could prompt buyers to maintain higher stocks until they are confident about any sustained improvement in supply.

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Aug 06
0

Daily Brief India: Reliance Power, Knowledge Realty Trust, Mahindra Logistics Ltd, KPIT Technologies, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • All You Need to Know About Anil Ambani’s 17000Cr Loan Fraud Case
  • Knowledge Realty Trust IPO – Steady FY25 Growth, Digestible Pricing
  • July’s Insider Playbook – Buying Activity In 14 Small Cap Companies
  • KPIT Tech (“KPIT”): Decent Q1FY26 Despite Tough Macro
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

All You Need to Know About Anil Ambani’s 17000Cr Loan Fraud Case

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Anil Ambani is being investigated by the ED for a massive INR 17,000 crore loan fraud case involving Reliance Group companies.
  • The case centers on allegations of fund diversion and financial irregularities related to loans from a consortium of nearly 20 public and private banks.
  • The investigation is being conducted under the PMLA, which involves even arrest and a parallel probe by SEBI into alleged fund diversion by Reliance Infrastructure.

Knowledge Realty Trust IPO – Steady FY25 Growth, Digestible Pricing

By Akshat Shah

  • Knowledge Realty Trust (258259D IN) is looking to raise around US$551m in its India IPO. It has undertaken a pre-IPO placement round of around INR14bn (US$160m) in June 2025.
  • Knowledge Realty Trust (KRT) owns and manages a high-quality office portfolio in India covering 87% of India’s office supply and gross absorption between CY16-1QCY25, as per the CBRE report.
  • In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about implied valuations in the IPO price range.

July’s Insider Playbook – Buying Activity In 14 Small Cap Companies

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

KPIT Tech (“KPIT”): Decent Q1FY26 Despite Tough Macro

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • KPIT reported a decent Q1FY26 considering the tough macro environment faced by its global auto OEM clients, who are struggling due to tariff uncertainty and intense competition from China OEMs.
  • KPIT announced new deal wins worth $241mm vs typical run-rate of $170mm. Q1FY26 revenue grew 4.9% YoY and -3.2% QoQ in constant currency terms, led by Powertrain and Connected domains.
  • A key highlight of Q1FY26 was KPIT announcing partnership with JSW for its new EV vehicle program. EBITDA margin stayed steady at 21% led by operational efficiency and currency gains.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Ports, Tata Motors
  • UST yields fell slightly yesterday, led by the long end, with yield movements muted ahead of this week’s heavy slate of bond auctions. The yield on the 2Y UST declined 1 bp to 3.68%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 2 bps to 4.19%.
  • Equities recovered from last Friday’s sell-off, driven by solid earnings and expectations of Fed rate cuts.

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Aug 06
0

Daily Brief China: Horizon Robotics, HKBN Ltd, Alibaba, Luckin Coffee, Beijing Roborock Technology , Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group, Vigonvita Life Sciences and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows
  • HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Offer Now Open
  • Hong Kong 2025 Placements – Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements
  • [Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$45) TP Change]:Solid Execution Showcases Consolidator Potential
  • Beijing Roborock A/H Listing: Leader in Its Niche but Tariffs and Competition Risks
  • Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
  • Vigonvita Life Sciences (旺山旺水) Pre-IPO: Structural Challenges for Commercialization
  • Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows

By Brian Freitas

  • There should be big passive inflows to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) over the next 6 weeks and that could take the stock higher in the short term.
  • Southbound Stock Connect investors have bought more than 10% of the Class B shares outstanding since the stock was added to the link a couple of months ago.
  • Short interest jumped following the Stock Connect inclusion but there has been covering over the last few weeks. Short-term direction for the stock price looks to be higher.

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Offer Now Open

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 1st August, HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) announced China Mobile (941 HK) had satisfied all pre-cons. The Offer Doc is now out.
  • The First Close is the 3rd September with payment potentially on or around the 12th September – if the Offer turns unconditional on the First Close.
  • There is no IFA opinion in this Doc. That will be present in the Response Doc, which is expected to be dispatched on or before the 20th August. 

Hong Kong 2025 Placements – Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements

By Sumeet Singh

  • 2025 has seen a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024.
  • Most of the 2025 placements have been primary raising and have come from a handful of sectors/backdrops.
  • In this note, we try to identify the possible primary placements that could take place over the rest of the year.

[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$45) TP Change]:Solid Execution Showcases Consolidator Potential

By Eric Wen

  • Luckin reported C2Q25 revenue 9%/11% higher than our est./cons., and non-GAAP OP 37%/17% higher than our est./cons., driven by the extra demand from food delivery platforms’ promotional campaigns. 
  • As we now expect the food delivery war to persist, we raise Luckin’s C2H25 revenue/OP estimate by 6%/18% and raise the TP to US$45.
  • Luckin, however, managed margin and expenses well to deliver the profit beat;

Beijing Roborock A/H Listing: Leader in Its Niche but Tariffs and Competition Risks

By Nicholas Tan

  • Beijing Roborock Technology (688169 CH), a robot vacuum maker, aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share listing.
  • It was founded in 2014, backed by Xiaomi, and is a global leader in intelligent home robotics.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on Valuation

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Innogen, a China-based near-commercial stage biotech company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. CITIC Securities and CICC are the joint sponsors.
  • In our previous note, we have examined the company’s core product namely efsubaglutide alfa, and updates in various filings.
  • In this note, we will provide a valuation for the company’s core product.

Vigonvita Life Sciences (旺山旺水) Pre-IPO: Structural Challenges for Commercialization

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Vigonvita is looking to raise at least US$100 million via a Hong Kong listing. The book runner is CITIC.
  • The company refiled its prospectus and dropped VV116, the commercialized COVID-19 anti-viral drug, from its core asset list.
  • In this note, we look at changes between filings and also further examine the prospect of LV232 and TPN171.

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Compared to competitors, the competitive advantage of Efsubaglutide Alfa is not obvious.The weight loss effect of single target mechanism could be weaker than that of competing dual and triple agonists
  • Before Innogen filed for listing, some pre-IPO investors chose to transfer the Company’s equity they held at a discount, indicating that these investors lack confidence in the Company’s prospects.
  • Under the double pressure of a single pipeline and lagging commercialization, pre-IPO valuation of RMB4.65bn is more like a dangerous bubble game.We shared our views on valuation and post-IPO performance.

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Aug 06
0

Most Read: BASE Inc, BayCurrent Consulting , Royal Gold Inc, Horizon Robotics, King Slide Works, Hoshizaki Corporation, Mirae Asset TIGER Fn Semiconductor Top 10 ETF, Technopro Holdings, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Genting Bhd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) – Interesting Situation
  • [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: Final Liquidity Rankings
  • [Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$400mn One-Way
  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows
  • King Slide Works (2059 TT): Sliding into a Global Index
  • Hoshizaki Corp (6465 JP): Close Global Index Deletion in August
  • Korea’s Next Policy Momentum Play: Rapid Unfolding of the National Growth Fund
  • [Japan M&A] Nikkei Says Blackstone to Buy TechnoPro Holdings (6028) For “Roughly ¥500bn”
  • HKEx Consultation Paper (Conclusion) – What Matters for ECM Investors
  • Southeast Asia: Potential Global Index Deletions in August

Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) – Interesting Situation

By Travis Lundy

  • Melco Holdings (6676 JP) chairman Hiroyuki MAKI bought up a 14% stake in BASE Inc (4477 JP) in just under two weeks. It was done quite transparently. He announced daily.
  • He wants to get to 30% in a Tender Offer. The method, approach, lack of transparency, and similarity to previous situations where he invested has the company wary. 
  • This looks like a Poison Pill case in the offing. It WAS a cheap stock. It is not expensive now. But it is not clear what the endgame is here.

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: Final Liquidity Rankings

By Travis Lundy

  • The five year data period for the September 2025 Nikkei 225 rebalance is now over (as of 31 July). First obvious news? No Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping.
  • That was obvious a couple months ago, and the BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) buying to come has been known for five months.
  • The Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) Offering last month makes it more likely an ADD than it was in June (when it didn’t replace NTT Data), but not a done deal.

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$400mn One-Way

By Travis Lundy

  • The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact. 
  • This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index. 
  • There are several expected ADDs/DELs for the September 2025 index rebal event. There will also be flows for the other index members due to capping.

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows

By Brian Freitas

  • There should be big passive inflows to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) over the next 6 weeks and that could take the stock higher in the short term.
  • Southbound Stock Connect investors have bought more than 10% of the Class B shares outstanding since the stock was added to the link a couple of months ago.
  • Short interest jumped following the Stock Connect inclusion but there has been covering over the last few weeks. Short-term direction for the stock price looks to be higher.

King Slide Works (2059 TT): Sliding into a Global Index

By Brian Freitas

  • King Slide Works (2059 TT)‘s stock price has more than doubled over the last 4 months and that should result in global index inclusion in August.
  • King Slide Works (2059 TT) has outperformed its peer group over the last few months and now trades at a big valuation premium.
  • There has been a lot of short covering, and positioning in the stock appears to be smaller than the estimated passive buying.

Hoshizaki Corp (6465 JP): Close Global Index Deletion in August

By Brian Freitas

  • Hoshizaki Corporation (6465 JP)‘s stock price has dropped over the last 3 months, and the lower market cap could result in global index deletion in August. 
  • An early cutoff in the review period could result in the stock staying on in the index but that puts it at risk of deletion in November.
  • There has been an increase in short interest and cumulative excess volume over the last couple of months and that indicates positioning in the stock.

Korea’s Next Policy Momentum Play: Rapid Unfolding of the National Growth Fund

By Sanghyun Park

  • From a trading view, no confirmed new ETFs under the National Growth Fund yet; market expects existing ETFs to be the main liquidity and sector play tools instead.
  • Out of the KRW 150tn, ETF flows likely come from the 100tn private pool—conservative case: ~3% (KRW 4.5tn), base case: 5–7%, aggressive: up to 10% (KRW 15tn).
  • Even conservatively, about KRW 3 trillion could flow into sector ETFs, a signficant AUM boost, mainly concentrated in AI, defense, aerospace, and biotech—driving notable inflow impact.

[Japan M&A] Nikkei Says Blackstone to Buy TechnoPro Holdings (6028) For “Roughly ¥500bn”

By Travis Lundy

  • There was an article in mid-May saying Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) might be privatised. It is an appropriate candidate. The stock popped 20% immediately, and has since risen another 20%. 
  • Today’s article follows one which came out ~2 weeks ago with non-sourced editorial content suggesting the price might be 20x EBITDA (i.e. a lot higher). 
  • Today, an article says Blackstone will buy the firm for “Roughly ¥500bn” which would be 3% down from yesterday. Beware the Nikkei. Beware expectations.

HKEx Consultation Paper (Conclusion) – What Matters for ECM Investors

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • The SEHK recently issued an update in response to its consultation paper in December 2025, with new mechanisms proposed for the IPO in the future.
  • In this note, we summarize the conclusion by HKEx and the rules to be implemented.
  • We are of the view that overall, the changes will benefit ECM investors with greater certainty in allocations.

Southeast Asia: Potential Global Index Deletions in August

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 4 stocks listed in Malaysia and Thailand that could be deleted from passive portfolios in August.
  • There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$70m flow and between 10.7-44.5x ADV.
  • The positioning in most stocks does not cover the estimated passive selling and there could be more selling over the next few weeks.

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Aug 06
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: AEM Holdings: Another CEO and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • AEM Holdings: Another CEO, Another Kitchen Sink?
  • Ecopro BM: Another Major Rechargeable Battery Play With A Sharp Improvement In Earnings in 2Q 2025
  • Unicharm Indonesia : Value Proposition
  • Intel. Was Tesla’s Deal With Samsung The Death Knell For IFS?
  • [Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$45) TP Change]:Solid Execution Showcases Consolidator Potential
  • Nextracker Bets Big on AI & Robotics—Is This the Future of Solar Infrastructure?
  • All You Need to Know About Anil Ambani’s 17000Cr Loan Fraud Case
  • July’s Insider Playbook – Buying Activity In 14 Small Cap Companies
  • Electro Optic Systems — Major contract announcement
  • Korean Banks; Keep Buy on Hana (086790 KS), Take Profits on Woori (316140 KS)

AEM Holdings: Another CEO, Another Kitchen Sink?

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • AEM (AEM SP) announced a new CEO, Samer Kabbani, would take over with immediate effect.
  • The previous CEO, Amy Leong, had only been in the job for about a year. The rapid change of CEO does not instill confidence going into 2Q25 results next week.
  • New CEO’s frequently kitchen sink upon their appointment, will Samer continue this trend?

Ecopro BM: Another Major Rechargeable Battery Play With A Sharp Improvement In Earnings in 2Q 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • Ecopro BM reported net profit of 34.3 billion won (up 397% YoY and TB YoY in 2Q25). Profits from its Indonesian investment also contributed to earnings, reaching 40.5 billion won.
  • The European EV market started to turn around in 2Q 2025 driven by OEM new car launches and customer inventory normalization compared to the end of 2024.
  • There are increasing signs of a positive turnaround at Ecopro BM. The company’s excellent results in 2Q 2025 are likely to result in higher earnings revisions by the consensus.

Unicharm Indonesia : Value Proposition

By Punit Khanna

  • Unicharm Indonesia looks very attractive on the basis os excess cash on its books and cash flow it generates. Trades at <1x EV?EBDITA
  • Its number 1 diaper and feminine pads company which is facing earnings headwinds
  • Any plans by the management to return cash, consumer demand recovery can lead to rerating in the stock.

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Intel. Was Tesla’s Deal With Samsung The Death Knell For IFS?

By William Keating

  • Tesla & Samsung just inked an eight year, $16.5 billion foundry deal set to run from July 24, 2025 through December 31, 2033.
  • Had Intel snagged this deal, it would have been a lifesaver for the company. Not getting it likely triggered the updated “Risk Factors” section in their latest 10K.
  • This isn’t Intel playing politics, there’s no point. It’s LBT laying it on the line for investors. Continued investment in 14A is no longer a given. It’s that simple…

[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$45) TP Change]:Solid Execution Showcases Consolidator Potential

By Eric Wen

  • Luckin reported C2Q25 revenue 9%/11% higher than our est./cons., and non-GAAP OP 37%/17% higher than our est./cons., driven by the extra demand from food delivery platforms’ promotional campaigns. 
  • As we now expect the food delivery war to persist, we raise Luckin’s C2H25 revenue/OP estimate by 6%/18% and raise the TP to US$45.
  • Luckin, however, managed margin and expenses well to deliver the profit beat;

Nextracker Bets Big on AI & Robotics—Is This the Future of Solar Infrastructure?

By Baptista Research

  • Nextracker, a provider of advanced solar tracking systems, reported its financial performance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, showcasing both strengths and underlying challenges.
  • The company achieved a significant year-over-year revenue increase of 20% to $864 million, buoyed by strong global demand and robust operational execution.
  • Adjusted EBITDA similarly grew by 23% to $215 million, representing an EBITDA margin of 25%, a 100 basis point improvement from the prior year.

All You Need to Know About Anil Ambani’s 17000Cr Loan Fraud Case

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Anil Ambani is being investigated by the ED for a massive INR 17,000 crore loan fraud case involving Reliance Group companies.
  • The case centers on allegations of fund diversion and financial irregularities related to loans from a consortium of nearly 20 public and private banks.
  • The investigation is being conducted under the PMLA, which involves even arrest and a parallel probe by SEBI into alleged fund diversion by Reliance Infrastructure.

July’s Insider Playbook – Buying Activity In 14 Small Cap Companies

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Electro Optic Systems — Major contract announcement

By Edison Investment Research

EOS Optic Systems has announced a landmark order. The group has been developing High Energy Laser Weapons (HELW) systems to expand on its traditional kinetic systems for a number of years. The €71.4m order provides a clear validation of the group’s strategy and technology as well as an income stream for the next three years.

Korean Banks; Keep Buy on Hana (086790 KS), Take Profits on Woori (316140 KS)

By Victor Galliano

  • We stick with Hana Financial as our sole buy in Korean banks; even though it does not top our proprietary scorecard, it remains attractively valued and its returns are improving
  • We downgrade Woori to a neutral from a buy, with Woori now trading at a PBV premium to Hana; historically, this has been an indicator of future poor share performance
  • KB Financial ranks top in our scorecard; KB is one watch, but remains a neutral due to limited appeal in terms of valuation

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Aug 06
0

Daily Brief United States: Microstrategy Inc Cl A, Intel Corp, NEXTracker , Beta Bionics, Smithfield Foods, NextDecade Corp, Base Oil and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P500 September 2025 Initial Forecast: MicroStrategy (MSTR) Emerges Post-Earnings
  • Intel. Was Tesla’s Deal With Samsung The Death Knell For IFS?
  • Nextracker Bets Big on AI & Robotics—Is This the Future of Solar Infrastructure?
  • Beta Bionic Inc (BBNX) Six Month Summary: From Breakout to Breakdown
  • Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD) Six Month Summary: Rough Start with a Resilient IPO Turnaround
  • Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on NextDecade (NEXT) – August 4, 2025
  • Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August
  • Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August
  • Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 4 August
  • Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 4 August

S&P500 September 2025 Initial Forecast: MicroStrategy (MSTR) Emerges Post-Earnings

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Intel. Was Tesla’s Deal With Samsung The Death Knell For IFS?

By William Keating

  • Tesla & Samsung just inked an eight year, $16.5 billion foundry deal set to run from July 24, 2025 through December 31, 2033.
  • Had Intel snagged this deal, it would have been a lifesaver for the company. Not getting it likely triggered the updated “Risk Factors” section in their latest 10K.
  • This isn’t Intel playing politics, there’s no point. It’s LBT laying it on the line for investors. Continued investment in 14A is no longer a given. It’s that simple…

Nextracker Bets Big on AI & Robotics—Is This the Future of Solar Infrastructure?

By Baptista Research

  • Nextracker, a provider of advanced solar tracking systems, reported its financial performance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, showcasing both strengths and underlying challenges.
  • The company achieved a significant year-over-year revenue increase of 20% to $864 million, buoyed by strong global demand and robust operational execution.
  • Adjusted EBITDA similarly grew by 23% to $215 million, representing an EBITDA margin of 25%, a 100 basis point improvement from the prior year.

Beta Bionic Inc (BBNX) Six Month Summary: From Breakout to Breakdown

By IPO Boutique

  • The company priced an upsized 12.0 million share offering at $17.00—above the initial range—and opened 29.4% higher at $22.00.
  • In March, amid broader sector weakness across the medical device space, the stock broke below its IPO price.
  • The company did report better than expected sales in its most recent quarterly report last week with guidance raised giving long term investors more confidence in its execution moving forward.

Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD) Six Month Summary: Rough Start with a Resilient IPO Turnaround

By IPO Boutique

  • The company priced 26.08 million shares at $20.00—a reduced offering from the original 34.8 million shares and below the initial $23–$27 range.
  • Since then, Smithfield has staged a steady and impressive climb. On Monday, shares reached a new post-IPO high of $25.22—a 26% gain from the issue price.
  • A lesson can be learned: when the market punishes early entries, strong fundamentals and time can still pave the road to recovery.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on NextDecade (NEXT) – August 4, 2025

By Water Tower Research

  • Last week, the WTR Sustainable Index was down 5.7% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 2.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 4.2%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.2%).
  • Energy Technology (40% of the index) was down 5.2%, while Transportation Solutions (33% of the index) was down 5.0%, Climate Tech and Clean Tech (20% of the index) was down 4.2%, and Climate Tech Mining and Processing (7% of the index) was down 17.3%.
  • Top 10 Performers: NXHSF, LISMF, KARX, AMSC, GNRC, AWLIF, NWTN, TPCS, CPSH, GRDAF

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils demand likely to stay lower amid signs of healthy availability of supply.
  • Healthy availability of supply, buyers’ sufficient stocks and seasonal slowdown in consumption incentivize buyers to hold back.
  • Ongoing fall in US base oils export prices adds to signs of weaker domestic demand.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s Group II heavy-grade base oils price-premium to gasoil holds steady at lower level, close to levels in Q4 2024.
  • Lower heavy-grade base oils margins and falling regional cargo price point to weaker supply-demand fundamentals.
  • Even at lower level, price-premium remains at level that incentivizes refiners to maintain steady output of the product.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 4 August

By Iain Pocock

  • Global base oils prices mostly fall relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices, with export values under more pressure.
  • Even at lower levels, price-differentials mostly hold at levels that sustain incentive for refiners to maintain output of most base oils grades.
  • FOB Asia base oils cargo prices hold steady versus Singapore gasoil.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 4 August

By Iain Pocock

  • Group II heavy-grade base oils premium to light grades is almost the same in US, Europe and Asia markets at same time and for first time in more than five years.
  • Similar price-spreads in all those markets contrast with diverging fundamentals driving those similar price-spreads, especially in Europe.
  • Similar price-spreads in US vs other markets follow sustained weakness of US heavy-grade prices because of persistent surplus supply.

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Aug 06
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 1st): Tokyo Electron and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 1st): Tokyo Electron, Advantest, Hitachi, SoftBank, Fujikura
  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): HANWHA SOLUTIONS, Hyundai Motor, Samsung SDI, LG H&H

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 1st): Tokyo Electron, Advantest, Hitachi, SoftBank, Fujikura

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 1st. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD16,072m.
  • We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Tokyo Electron, Advantest, Hitachi, SoftBank, Fujikura, Japan Tobacco, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, IHI, Shimano, Capcom, Tokyo Electron, Advantest, Hitachi, Softbank, Fujikura, Japan Tobacco.

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): HANWHA SOLUTIONS, Hyundai Motor, Samsung SDI, LG H&H

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Aug 1st. The aggregated short interest was USD9.7bn.
  • We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in HANWHA SOLUTIONS, Hyundai Motor, Samsung SDI, LG H&H, Hanwha Vision.

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Aug 06
0

Daily Brief Japan: Technopro Holdings, Shibaura Electronics, Softbank Group, Hochiki Corp, Takara Standard, Organo Corp, Azbil Corp, Beenos Inc, Decollte Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] Nikkei Says Blackstone to Buy TechnoPro Holdings (6028) For “Roughly ¥500bn”
  • Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Core Designation Does Not Change Yageo’s Calculus
  • TechnoPro (6028 JP): Blackstone’s Rumoured Takeunder Offer
  • Softbank Group (9984 JP) Outlook (Pre-Earnings Price Range Forecast)
  • Hochiki Corp (6745 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • Takara Standard (7981 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • Organo Corp (6368 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • Azbil Corp (6845 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • Beenos Inc (3328 JP): Q3 FY09/25 flash update
  • Decollte Holdings (7372 JP): Q3 FY09/25 flash update

[Japan M&A] Nikkei Says Blackstone to Buy TechnoPro Holdings (6028) For “Roughly ¥500bn”

By Travis Lundy

  • There was an article in mid-May saying Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) might be privatised. It is an appropriate candidate. The stock popped 20% immediately, and has since risen another 20%. 
  • Today’s article follows one which came out ~2 weeks ago with non-sourced editorial content suggesting the price might be 20x EBITDA (i.e. a lot higher). 
  • Today, an article says Blackstone will buy the firm for “Roughly ¥500bn” which would be 3% down from yesterday. Beware the Nikkei. Beware expectations.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Core Designation Does Not Change Yageo’s Calculus

By Arun George

  • Reuters reports that the Ministry of Finance of Japan reclassified Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) from a Type 1 (non-designated business sector) to Type 3 (core designated company).
  • Reportedly, Yageo’s application was made with a view to Shibaura’s businesses falling under the core category. A blocked deal would set back Prime Minister Ishiba’s goal to improve China relations. 
  • The change to Shibaura’s designation to core helps explain the elongated approval process, as the Ministry of Finance and Yageo need time to agree on acceptable undertakings. 

TechnoPro (6028 JP): Blackstone’s Rumoured Takeunder Offer

By Arun George

  • The Nikkei reports that Blackstone (BX US) will launch the tender offer for Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) just below JPY4,900, a 44.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • While the rumoured offer is 1.5% below the last close, it is attractive as it resulted from an auction and represents a pre-media rumour all-time high.
  • It is unclear if the offer is preconditional on regulatory approvals. Blackstone is likely to secure irrevocables from activists like Orbis to project a secure path to completion. 

Softbank Group (9984 JP) Outlook (Pre-Earnings Price Range Forecast)

By Nico Rosti

  • Softbank Group (9984 JP) is about to release its earnings on August 7th. 
  • The stock pulled back last week but this week is rallying. The rally can easily reach Q2 (12416) and Q3 (13003) resistance zones, if the earnings are good.
  • If the earnings are disappointing, look for initial support at 11145 (Q3).  If earnings are really disappointing, look at 10086 (outliers zone).

Hochiki Corp (6745 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Q1 consolidated revenue reached JPY22.4bn, a 7.1% YoY increase, marking the 13th consecutive quarter of growth.
  • Operating profit surged approximately 2.2x YoY to JPY1.1bn, with an OPM increase of 2.4pp to 4.8%.
  • Orders increased by 8.9% YoY to JPY34.5bn, while the order backlog decreased by 3.0% YoY to JPY39.5bn.

Takara Standard (7981 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In Q1 FY03/26, revenue was JPY61.4bn (+7.1% YoY), operating profit JPY4.2bn (+35.8% YoY), net income JPY3.1bn (+48.7% YoY).
  • Revenue growth in new detached housing market was JPY19.2bn (+12.6% YoY), driven by higher unit prices and demand.
  • Revenue in the remodeling market increased to JPY19.6bn (+0.9% YoY), supported by enhanced product specifications and customer-aligned proposals.

Organo Corp (6368 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Organo’s Q1 FY03/26 results: Orders JPY59.6bn (+13.0% YoY), revenue JPY38.1bn (+20.5% YoY), operating profit JPY7.0bn (+73.8% YoY).
  • Revised full-year FY03/26 forecast: Orders JPY180.0bn (+19.0% YoY), revenue JPY175.0bn (+7.2% YoY), operating profit JPY34.0bn (+9.3% YoY).
  • Electronics industry growth: Semiconductor projects in Taiwan, Japan, US, and increased sales of water treatment chemicals.

Azbil Corp (6845 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Q1 FY03/26 sales decreased by 5.3% YoY, but operating profit increased by 22.1% due to price hikes.
  • Orders declined due to fewer multi-year renewals, but segment profit rose by 58.7% YoY from profitability measures.
  • Orders and sales fell significantly due to Azbil Telstar stake sale, impacting segment profit and margins.

Beenos Inc (3328 JP): Q3 FY09/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Q2 FY09/24 results show a 1.0% YoY decrease in GMV to JPY84.9bn and a 30.7% YoY revenue decline.
  • In Q3 FY09/25, GMV increased due to cross-border e-commerce initiatives, despite foreign exchange challenges affecting user demand.
  • BEENOS achieved 78.6% of GMV, 76.8% of revenue, 91.2% of operating profit, and 85.4% of net income targets.

Decollte Holdings (7372 JP): Q3 FY09/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • The company reported revenue of JPY4.7bn (+8.4% YoY) and operating profit of JPY446mn (+60.3% YoY) in Q3 FY09/25.
  • Photo wedding services saw revenue rise by JPY319mn (+7.8% YoY), with photo shoots up 6.7% YoY.
  • The fitness gym business experienced a 21.0% YoY revenue drop due to the closure of the Ashiya store.

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