Daily Briefs

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. reported a record-breaking performance for the first quarter of 2025, demonstrating significant growth across its diverse business segments even amidst fluctuating macroeconomic conditions.
The company achieved an adjusted earnings per share of $1.72, marking a 16% increase year-over-year.
Net revenue rose by 8%, reaching a new high of $2.5 billion.

Samsung SDI (006400): Still a No

By Henry Soediarko

The EU ended the direct purchase subsidies for EVs; that is a negative for Samsung SDI (006400 KS).
Management is quite bullish, but the last two quarters result were quite informative on the level of margin and contribution from the battery business.
It trades around 112x PER while historically around 25-35x PER and its competitor Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK) is only trading at 20x.

PostNL NV – What’s News in Amsterdam

By The IDEA!

In this edition: • ABN Amro | completes the acquisition of Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe • ING | cutting 230 senior roles globally within its Wholesale Banking • InPost | EVRi intends to deploy 10,000 APMs by 2030 • PostNL | proposed changes in postal legislation do not go down well at PostNL • Dutch retail sales | up 2.2% YoY in May; sales volume down 2.2% • Dutch inflation | continued to trend down in June

Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean Reversion Delivers Profit, Trade Exit

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Ampol (ALD AU) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS AU), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

OUG Holdings (TYO 8041) – A 0.5x P/TBV Vertically Integrated Seafood Wholesaler in Osaka…

By Altay Capital

OUG Holdings (TYO 8041) is a vertically integrated seafood group that auctions fresh fish at major markets, runs a nationwide cold-chain for trading, processing, and delivering seafood to stores and restaurants, and farms premium buri and bluefin tuna.
Because it controls aquaculture, logistics hubs, and its own truck fleet, it moves product from port to plate faster and fresher than rivals that outsource storage and transport.
They currently have dominant market share in Osaka and are slowly expanding to Tokyo.

HMC Capital – The Overnight Report: Winners Out, Laggards In

By Small Cap Consumer Research

A global perspective on what happened overnight

Nanosonics Ltd (NAN AU): Two Upcoming Catalysts to Set Future Direction

By Tina Banerjee

Nanosonics Ltd (NAN AU) is on track to launch its newly approved endoscope cleaning device, Coris in the U.S. in Q1FY26.
FY25 performance is expected to beat revised guidance. Consensus is expecting revenue growth of 14% for FY25, matching the higher end of the revised guidance.
Nanosonics shares have a high short interest (6.65%) in ASX. We may see some short squeeze as the company entering eventful Q1FY26 (new launch, FY25 result announcement, FY26 guidance).

Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A – AKA: Remain Bullish After Management Meetings; Reiterate Buy, $30 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $30 price target and projections for A.K.A. Brands after meeting with management in their San Francisco headquarters.
We believe the company has continued to make material progress on multiple fronts, from adding new Princess Polly stores (and upgrading the current fleet), increasing the wholesale presence for both Petal & Pup and Princess Polly, leveraging the “test and repeat” model to return Culture Kings to higher margins and top line growth, and shifting the Australian market to top line expansion.
When combined with the potential for debt refinancing and continued strong online results (helped by new store expansion), we believe there remains top and bottom line upside, and we are reiterating our Buy rating and $30 price target for AKA.

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Jul 02

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Lens Technology, Domain Holdings Australia , Samsung Electronics, Softbank Group (ADR), Fastly Inc, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Calix Inc, Endava PLC and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Lens Technology (6613 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion
Domain (DHG AU): 4th August Vote On CoStar’s Offer. Clean Deal
Lens Technology H-Share Listing: Thoughts on Valuation
Lens Technology H Share Listing (6613 HK): Valuation Insights
Samsung 2Q25 Official Leaks: Sharp Decline in Operating Profits, but It’s the Bottom. Really?
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Fastly Ignites 64% Growth in Emerging Products as Edge Compute Takes Center Stage…
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Has Samsung Given Up Chasing TSMC?; Xiaomi Tesla-Killer EV Using Key TSMC Chips
Calix Customer Blitz: Will New BSP Wins Provide A Much Needed Edge?
Endava plc: How Its Agile & Nearshore Delivery Model Is A Strategic Differentiator!

Lens Technology (6613 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Lens Technology (6613 HK)‘s global offering opened yesterday, and the raise could reach up to US$800m if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
The allocation to cornerstone investors is smaller than in other recent AH listings. The discount of over 25% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for large listings.
Lens Technology (6613 HK) could be added to a global index in December. Inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect in August and HSCI inclusion could take place in March 2026.

Domain (DHG AU): 4th August Vote On CoStar’s Offer. Clean Deal

By David Blennerhassett

Back on the 9th May 2025, Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) entered into a Scheme, at A$4.43/share (in cash), with CoStar, the same terms as the 27th March NBIO.
Apart from the standard Scheme vote, this needs FIRB to sign off. Nine Entertainment Co Holdings (NEC AU) (60.05% shareholder) is supportive.
The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 4th August, and expected implementation on or before the 27th August. The IE (FGrant Samuel) says “fair & reasonable“.

Lens Technology H-Share Listing: Thoughts on Valuation

Chinese iPhone glass supplier Lens Technology (6613 HK) has announced the terms for its H-share listing, and plans to raise around US$600m through issuing 262.3m shares.
The company’s listing is priced at HK$17.38-18.18 per share, at a 25-28% discount to the last close price of the A-shares as of 27th June.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the company’s H-share offering is priced reasonably compared to domestic and international peers.

Lens Technology H Share Listing (6613 HK): Valuation Insights

By Arun George

Lens Technology (6613 HK), an industry-leading integrated one-stop precision manufacturing solution provider, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$600 million.
I discussed the H Share listing in Lens Technology H Share Listing (6613 HK): The Investment Case.
The proposed AH discount of 24.8% to 28.1% (based on the 27 June A Share price) is attractive, and I would participate in the H Share listing.

Samsung 2Q25 Official Leaks: Sharp Decline in Operating Profits, but It’s the Bottom. Really?

By Nicolas Baratte

Samsung doesn’t provide guidance when it reports, but gives revenue an operating profit guidance ~2 weeks before reporting. But we have an officially non-official preview in Korean media.
2Q25 operating profit will be “weaker than expected”, declining “by more than 15% from the first quarter” to KRW mid-5 trillion range. Consensus expects +1% QoQ.
Some positive news to counter balance this large disappointment – smartphone, HBM3E – I am skeptical any of these can lift profits in 2H25, revisit early 2026.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group, New World Development
US Treasury yields fell yesterday. The UST curve bull flattened, with the yield on the 2Y UST declining 3 bps to 3.72%, while that on the 10Y UST was down 5 bps at 4.23%. Equities climbed to new record highs.
The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to 6,205, while the Nasdaq advanced 0.5% to 20,370. Contracted sales for China’s Top 100 developers in June declined 23% y-o-y but were up 15% m-o-m at CNY 339 bn, according to CRIC.

Fastly Ignites 64% Growth in Emerging Products as Edge Compute Takes Center Stage…

Fastly Inc.’s earnings report for the first quarter of 2025 highlighted several key aspects of the company’s financial performance and strategic direction, presenting both opportunities and challenges for investors to consider.
Positively, Fastly reported revenues of $144.5 million, surpassing their guidance range.
This represents an 8% increase year-over-year, suggesting positive momentum in their revenue growth, notably higher compared to the previous quarter’s 2% growth.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Has Samsung Given Up Chasing TSMC?; Xiaomi Tesla-Killer EV Using Key TSMC Chips

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

Samsung Said to Have Give Up Chasing TSMC at the Leading Edge of Chip Manufacturing
Xiaomi’s Tesla-Killer YU7 EV Surges in Orders — TSMC Rides the Wave as Core Chip Supplier
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC’s 2nm Market? We Think It’s Too Early to Say (II)

Calix Customer Blitz: Will New BSP Wins Provide A Much Needed Edge?

Calix Inc. reported its first quarter 2025 results, showcasing solid performance, with a clear articulation from its leadership about navigating a dynamic environment in the broadband industry.
The company, which focuses on providing differentiated broadband experiences through its appliance-based platform, cloud services, and managed service models, recorded revenues of $220 million, reflecting a 7% sequential growth.
This growth can be attributed to both strong demand and a significant pull-forward from a large customer, which contributed to the quarter’s overperformance.

Endava plc: How Its Agile & Nearshore Delivery Model Is A Strategic Differentiator!

By Small Cap Consumer Research

Endava’s third quarter fiscal year 2025 results reflect a mixed performance impacted by both internal dynamics and external macroeconomic conditions.
On the positive side, Endava reported GBP 194.8 million in revenue, marking an 11.7% year-over-year increase, demonstrating resilience amidst a challenging environment.
The company also achieved an adjusted profit before tax of GBP 24.6 million, up significantly from the previous year, translating to a healthy adjusted PBT margin of 12.6% compared to 8.9% previously.

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Jul 02

Daily Brief Consumer: Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company, Oug Holdings, Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A, NIFTY Index, Boston Beer Company Inc A, LG Electronics, Coursera , Lgi Homes Inc, Century Communities, Global Traffic Network and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (3288 HK) – The Dull Post-IPO Share Price and the Outlook
OUG Holdings (TYO 8041) – A 0.5x P/TBV Vertically Integrated Seafood Wholesaler in Osaka…
Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A – AKA: Remain Bullish After Management Meetings; Reiterate Buy, $30 PT
NIFTY Index at a Crossroads: Two-Week Tactical Outlook
The Boston Beer Company: Can Hard Seltzer & Its Brand Repositioning Help It Sustain In The Competitive Landscape?
LG Electronics- An Insight Into Its Premium Innovative Product Development & Market Positioning!
Coursera Inc.
LGI Homes: Is The Demand for Entry-Level Homes Here To Stay?
Century Communities: An Insight Into Its Recent Community Expansion
GTN Ltd – H2 FY25 downgrade and proposed capital return

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (3288 HK) – The Dull Post-IPO Share Price and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Recent positive sentiment towards A/H listings fails to drive Haitian’s post-IPO stock price performance, as the market still has doubts about whether Haitian can effectively break through the growth bottleneck.
The core contradiction of Haitian lies in the mismatch between high valuation and slow growth. Haitian’s fundamentals are difficult to support high valuation – 20-30x P/E is a reasonable range.
The intensification of geopolitical tensions has brought considerable uncertainty to the market, which has reduced investors’ risk appetite and made them more willing to avoid investment targets with potential risks.

OUG Holdings (TYO 8041) – A 0.5x P/TBV Vertically Integrated Seafood Wholesaler in Osaka…

By Altay Capital

OUG Holdings (TYO 8041) is a vertically integrated seafood group that auctions fresh fish at major markets, runs a nationwide cold-chain for trading, processing, and delivering seafood to stores and restaurants, and farms premium buri and bluefin tuna.
Because it controls aquaculture, logistics hubs, and its own truck fleet, it moves product from port to plate faster and fresher than rivals that outsource storage and transport.
They currently have dominant market share in Osaka and are slowly expanding to Tokyo.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A – AKA: Remain Bullish After Management Meetings; Reiterate Buy, $30 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $30 price target and projections for A.K.A. Brands after meeting with management in their San Francisco headquarters.
We believe the company has continued to make material progress on multiple fronts, from adding new Princess Polly stores (and upgrading the current fleet), increasing the wholesale presence for both Petal & Pup and Princess Polly, leveraging the “test and repeat” model to return Culture Kings to higher margins and top line growth, and shifting the Australian market to top line expansion.
When combined with the potential for debt refinancing and continued strong online results (helped by new store expansion), we believe there remains top and bottom line upside, and we are reiterating our Buy rating and $30 price target for AKA.

NIFTY Index at a Crossroads: Two-Week Tactical Outlook

By Nico Rosti

The NIFTY Index rally may stop briefly, for 1 or 2 weeks. At the moment the index hast started a very mild pullback, after closing higher for 2 consecutive weeks.
Usually the rally does not last more than 3 weeks when this pattern is encountered although there has been occasions where it lasted 7 weeks.
Two scenarios lie ahead: (1) if this week closes higher, expect a near-term pullback; or (2) if it closes lower—possibly continuing into next week—the rally may resume afterward.

The Boston Beer Company: Can Hard Seltzer & Its Brand Repositioning Help It Sustain In The Competitive Landscape?

The Boston Beer Company’s latest earnings report for Q1 2025 demonstrates both positive progress and ongoing challenges in a dynamic market environment.
The company reported a solid start to the year with a 5.3% increase in shipments and a 6.5% rise in revenue, driving its highest first quarter gross margin since 2019 thanks to volume growth and margin enhancement initiatives.
However, depletions decreased by 1%, indicating that consumption trends remain under pressure amidst broader category headwinds.

LG Electronics- An Insight Into Its Premium Innovative Product Development & Market Positioning!

LG Electronics presented its first-quarter financial results for 2025, painting a nuanced picture of challenges and strategic initiatives that the company is undertaking.
LG Electronics reported consolidated sales of KRW 22.74 trillion and an operating profit of KRW 1.26 trillion for the quarter.
The results showcased a strong quarter with record-high sales figures from several of its business segments, notably in Household Solutions (HS), Vehicle Solutions (VS), and Environmental Solutions (ES).

Coursera Inc.

Coursera reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting both strengths and challenges.
The company posted revenue of $179 million, reflecting a 6% increase from the prior year, driven by growth in its Consumer and Enterprise segments.
This marks a solid start to the year, with Coursera generating over $25 million in free cash flow, a 40% year-over-year increase.

LGI Homes: Is The Demand for Entry-Level Homes Here To Stay?

LGI Homes delivered their first quarter 2025 results, facing a challenging environment due to high mortgage rates and economic uncertainties.
While the demand for new homes remains robust, affordability issues and rate fluctuations have somewhat dented homebuyer confidence.
Despite a sluggish start, especially in January and February, the company witnessed an uptick in March, suggesting a potential start to the spring selling season.

Century Communities: An Insight Into Its Recent Community Expansion

Century Communities, Inc. reported its financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, indicating a mix of both challenges and opportunities.
The company faces macroeconomic headwinds with increased economic uncertainty, interest rate volatility, and erosion in consumer confidence impacting the home sales market.
These factors have contributed to a slower-than-typical spring selling season, leading to a weaker absorption rate than anticipated.

GTN Ltd – H2 FY25 downgrade and proposed capital return

GTN Limited (ASX:GTN) provides traffic information reports and cash compensation to radio and television stations, and in return gets a guaranteed number of commercial advertising spots adjacent to traffic, news and information reports.
GTN has announced its long-awaited major capital management initiative, proposing a $0.23/share ($44m) capital return.
What could have been a share price boost has been complicated by the announcement of a material H2 FY25 earnings downgrade, with EBITDA likely to be down ~55% on a ~4% decline in revenue.

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Jul 02

Daily Brief Financials: Taishin Financial Holding, MS&AD Insurance, HDB Financial Services Ltd, Intercontinental Exchange, Bank Of America, Direct Line Insurance Group Pl, HMC Capital, Kalpataru Limited, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd, Record PLC and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July
[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Jul25), Minor Updates
HDB Financial Services IPO Trading – Strong Demand, Driven by Instis
InterContinental Exchange (ICE): Its $14 Billion Mortgage Opportunity Can Power Platform Expansion!
Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs
Last Premium Collected: DLG’s Short-Dated Arbitrage Opportunity
HMC Capital – The Overnight Report: Winners Out, Laggards In
Kalpataru IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Muted Overall Demand
AUB Group (AUB AU) Vs. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU): Aussie Financial Pair Offers Short-Term Opportunity
Record — Building foundations for growth

Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July

Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) and Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) announced a Merger of Equals in August 2024 and completion is expected on 24 July.
Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) has underperformed its peers over the last 18 months while Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) has underperformed its peers following the merger announcement.
There will be passive flows in the merged entity following the completion of the merger and could help reverse some of Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)‘s underperformance.

[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Jul25), Minor Updates

By Travis Lundy

TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
1,389 new CGRs filed since 1 June 25. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff-file tool. Input a name, see the changes in the reports.
The JPX Council of Experts met on 22 April. Next meeting is in a week. Parent-sub follow-ups in Fall/Winter 2025. Slow.

HDB Financial Services IPO Trading – Strong Demand, Driven by Instis

By Sumeet Singh

HDB Financial Services (HDBFS) raised around US$1.4bn in its India IPO.
HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
We have looked at the past performance and pricing in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

InterContinental Exchange (ICE): Its $14 Billion Mortgage Opportunity Can Power Platform Expansion!

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. reported a record-breaking performance for the first quarter of 2025, demonstrating significant growth across its diverse business segments even amidst fluctuating macroeconomic conditions.
The company achieved an adjusted earnings per share of $1.72, marking a 16% increase year-over-year.
Net revenue rose by 8%, reaching a new high of $2.5 billion.

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs

By Joe Jasper

We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place long as the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs.
Short-Term SPX support is at 6028-6059 and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&P Mid Caps (IJH) also breaking above key resistances

Last Premium Collected: DLG’s Short-Dated Arbitrage Opportunity

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Direct Line–Aviva deal has cleared CMA and court hurdles; only procedural steps remain.
Implied value is 312.19p vs. 306.6p close — a 1.82% spread with 7-day horizon.
I recommend long arbitrage exposure below 307p. This is a textbook risk arb trade: liquid, near-fully de-risked, and short-dated.

HMC Capital – The Overnight Report: Winners Out, Laggards In

A global perspective on what happened overnight

Kalpataru IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Muted Overall Demand

By Akshat Shah

Kalpataru Limited (KTARU IN) raised about US$184m in its India IPO.
Kalpataru (KL) is an integrated real estate developer involved in identification and acquisition of land, planning, designing, execution, sales, and marketing of its projects.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

AUB Group (AUB AU) Vs. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU): Aussie Financial Pair Offers Short-Term Opportunity

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: The AUB Group (AUB AU) vs. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: Going long AUB Group (AUB AU) and short Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. (SOL AU) targets a 5% return to the statistical mean reversion level.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Record — Building foundations for growth

By Edison Investment Research

Record’s FY25 results (to 31 March) were robust, with assets under management equivalent (AUME) remaining above $100bn. Progress with the company’s strategic refocus on core products that can grow, diversify and enhance the quality of earnings is accelerating. Launched in November, the Infrastructure Equity Fund will soon commence investment. A recently announced Sharia-compliant deep-tier supply chain finance fund, the world’s first of its kind, is expected to launch before year-end, and non-binding terms have been agreed for the funding of a potash development in conjunction with a joint venture partner. Although Record has a diverse set of products and exposures, the commonality is Record’s ability to make the complex simple.

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Jul 02

Daily Brief Macro: Smartkarma Webinar | Dual Listings in ASEAN: Trends and Drivers and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

Smartkarma Webinar | Dual Listings in ASEAN: Trends and Drivers
EA: Calm At The Inflation Target
Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2025
Crude Oil Reverts Back (Like We Predicted)
CX Daily: The Rise and Fall of China’s ‘Fentanyl King’ in Corruption-Fueled Bankruptcy
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 30 June
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 30 June
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/26] WTI Sheds Gains as Israel-Iran Ceasefire Eases Risk Premium
A Fragile Peace
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/26] Henry Hub Slips as Cooler Forecasts Weigh on Demand Outlook

Smartkarma Webinar | Dual Listings in ASEAN: Trends and Drivers

By Smartkarma Research

In the next installment of our Webinar series, in collaboration with ASEAN Exchanges, we go live with Smartkarma Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh.

Dual listings between ASEAN Markets are a relatively new concept, which allows locally listed companies to list on another exchange in the region, often under a Depositary Receipt (DR) scheme.
DRs can provide additional investment opportunities for domestic investors in the region, especially retail investors, and raise the profile of ASEAN as an attractive investment destination, creating larger pools of liquidity.
By facilitating easier cross-border investment, this model aims to boost trading volumes, enhance the visibility of listed companies, and offer them access to a wider and more diverse investor base beyond their home market.

Join us as Angus Mackintosh shares his thoughts on the growing trend of dual listings in ASEAN, discussing the rise of Depositary Receipts, and which regional markets are leading this cross-border integration.

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 16 July 2025, 16:30 SGT/HKT.

Register for the Webinar here

Angus Mackintosh has worked in equity sales and research for more than 25 years. He possesses in-depth knowledge of a wide range of companies, economies, and markets in Asia. Over his career, he has specialised in HK/China and ASEAN markets at various different investment banks, most recently heading equities in Indonesia for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Jakarta for more than three years. In 2016, he joined Smartkarma as an insight provider, publishing research on the platform and working with business development to grow the platform.

EA: Calm At The Inflation Target

By Phil Rush

An unsurprising achievement of the 2% target might urge a celebration at the ECB, but it does not demand policy action. Energy price declines can’t be relied upon to repeat.
The early consensus forecast was surprised on the upside, but raised by last week’s releases in France and Spain. So, while reassuring, this outcome is not dovish.
We expect inflation to stay close to the target, whereas the ECB forecasts a substantial drop below it, while calling policy well-positioned. We still see no more rate cuts.

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2025

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 3Q 2025.
A whopping 87% (33 out of 38) holdcos/quasi holdcos outperformed their opco counterparts in the past three months, which is one of the best ever in the past two decades.
This appears to be one of the classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” trading opportunities.

Crude Oil Reverts Back (Like We Predicted)

By The Commodity Report

During the past two weeks we highlighted that the upside for oil is only minimal and that trading the “war event” may be the rational thing to do.
So far, this turned out to be the right call.
Investment banks seem to be a bit more emotional about the topic.

CX Daily: The Rise and Fall of China’s ‘Fentanyl King’ in Corruption-Fueled Bankruptcy

By Caixin Global

Bankruptcy / Cover Story: The rise and fall of China’s ‘fentanyl king’ in corruption-fueled bankruptcy
Hikvision /: Canada kicks out Chinese surveillance-gear maker
Nike /: Nike to cut China footwear output to counter $1 billion tariff hit

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 30 June

By Iain Pocock

Global Group II heavy-grade base oils prices stay at elevated levels relative to feedstock and competing fuel prices.
Group II heavy-grade prices maintain steep premium to Group I heavy-neutrals prices in Asia and especially in Europe.
Group II heavy-grade price-strength extends to markets like India, even with recent strength in Group I prices in that market.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 30 June

By Iain Pocock

Global base oils prices recover versus feedstock/competing fuel prices after crude prices fall.
Firmer base oils price-differentials curb pressure on refiners to adjust output in response to squeezed margins.
Firmer margins, and easing pressure to adjust output, coincide with prospect of easing supply-demand fundamentals in coming weeks.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/26] WTI Sheds Gains as Israel-Iran Ceasefire Eases Risk Premium

By Suhas Reddy

WTI futures dropped by 11.3% for the week ending 27/Jun, marking its steepest weekly fall since March 2023. The decline was due to the ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
The U.S. rig count fell by seven to 547. The oil rig count fell by six to 432, while gas rigs dropped by two to 109.
WTI OI PCR rose to 0.93 on 27/Jun compared to 0.87 on 20/Jun. Call OI rose by 8.3% WoW, while put OI increased by 15.4%.

A Fragile Peace

By Sharmila Whelan

The timing of Israel’s unprovoked strike had all to do with self-preservation – specifically for Netanyahu rather than the Israeli people – and scuppering the US-Iran nuclear deal.
Whether the Israel-Iran truce will hold is left to be seen, but the world has dodged a Kamikaze for now and all involved parties are claiming victory.
Iran is not as fragile as you think; by Q1 2024, its economy was 21% larger than it was pre-pandemic, compared to 14% growth for Israel.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/26] Henry Hub Slips as Cooler Forecasts Weigh on Demand Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

For the week ending 27/Jun, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 2.8% due to cooler weather forecasts, Israel-Iran ceasefire, and U.S. natural gas storage builds.
For the week ending 20/Jun, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 96 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of an 88 Bcf build.
Henry Hub OI PCR remained unchanged at 0.85 on 27/Jun compared to 20/Jun. Call OI decreased by 14.4% WoW, while put OI fell by 14.2%.

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Jul 02

Most Read: FWD Group Holdings, BayCurrent Consulting , Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders , Nissin Corp, Taishin Financial Holding, Geek+, Lens Technology, Hyundai Construction Equipment, MS&AD Insurance and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline
Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes
AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows
[Japan M&A] Bain Plays Announcement Games with Nissin (9066) MBO TOB – Noise A Possibility
Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July
Beijing Geekplus Pre-IPO: Expensive Valuation and Mark up from Previous Round
Lens Technology (6613 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion
HD HCE–Infracore Merger: Deal Mechanics & Trade Playbook
[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Jul25), Minor Updates
Ohayo Japan | Investors Rotate Out of Tech; Fed, Tariffs in Focus

FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline

FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) is looking to raise up to HK$3.99bn (US$508m) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$48.82bn (US$6.22bn).
Cornerstone investors will take up more than half the base offering and that will delay index inclusion to well into 2026.
FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) could be added to the HSCI Index and Southbound Stock Connect in December. That could bring some buying into the stock from mainland investors.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends in 4 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
There will be passive buying in BayCurrent Consulting as the PAF moves from 0.5 to 1. Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s index weight is below the 10% cap for now.
ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) replaces NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) later this week and there will be a lot of focus on those names.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows

We forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 10 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 1 stock is expected to be added to Large cap, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for global indices, NIFTY Index, NSE Nifty Next 50 Index and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.

[Japan M&A] Bain Plays Announcement Games with Nissin (9066) MBO TOB – Noise A Possibility

By Travis Lundy

On 12 May 2025, Bain Capital announced a deal to buy Nissin Corp (9066 JP). The tender was VERY light in price (Bain’s borrowing more than adjusted EV at TOB Price)
And it was very long at 41 days. As of Day 1, they announced a long list of “irrevocables” – 16 holders with 5.75% – who had agreed to tender.
Since then Bain have made 7 separate amendment filings detailing additional irrevocables and one possible additional tender agreement to get to 11.30%. Now it’s extended.

Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July

Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) and Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) announced a Merger of Equals in August 2024 and completion is expected on 24 July.
Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) has underperformed its peers over the last 18 months while Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) has underperformed its peers following the merger announcement.
There will be passive flows in the merged entity following the completion of the merger and could help reverse some of Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)‘s underperformance.

Beijing Geekplus Pre-IPO: Expensive Valuation and Mark up from Previous Round

By Nicholas Tan

Geek+ (1678559D CH) is looking to raise up to $300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a leader in the global autonomous mobile robots (AMR) market.
In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

Lens Technology (6613 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion

Lens Technology (6613 HK)‘s global offering opened yesterday, and the raise could reach up to US$800m if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
The allocation to cornerstone investors is smaller than in other recent AH listings. The discount of over 25% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for large listings.
Lens Technology (6613 HK) could be added to a global index in December. Inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect in August and HSCI inclusion could take place in March 2026.

HD HCE–Infracore Merger: Deal Mechanics & Trade Playbook

By Sanghyun Park

This event offers two arb plays—merger swap and appraisal rights—but there’s barely any juice left as pricing locked the market into an unusually tight range.
Yeah, it’s tight. Unless cancel risk flares up, the spread likely stays muted—major holder’s balanced stakes make vote pushback or ratio disputes pretty unlikely.
One angle to watch: passive flows. HCE likely joins KOSPI 200 post-merger, triggering index buys around Infracore’s halt on Dec 30—potentially a solid year-end positioning play.

[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Jul25), Minor Updates

By Travis Lundy

TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
1,389 new CGRs filed since 1 June 25. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff-file tool. Input a name, see the changes in the reports.
The JPX Council of Experts met on 22 April. Next meeting is in a week. Parent-sub follow-ups in Fall/Winter 2025. Slow.

Ohayo Japan | Investors Rotate Out of Tech; Fed, Tariffs in Focus

By Mark Chadwick

The Dow gained 0.91% to close at 44,494.94 on Tuesday as investors rotated out of technology and into health care stocks
President Donald Trump expressed scepticism on reaching a tariff agreement with Japan, emphasizing his intent to impose duties
Kirin Holdings completed the sale of Kyowa Hakko Bio’s amino acid business

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Jul 01

Daily Brief Singapore: Talkmed, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Asia High Yield Bond Index, Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust, Q & M Dental Group (Singapore) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

TalkMed (TKMED SP)’s Super Clean Scheme
Indonesia Defies Headwinds To Post Robust Rubber Exports In Early 2025
Asian Bond Monitor: Asian Bonds for the Upcoming Recession
REIT Watch – Best performing S-REITs post double digit total returns in H1
REITs and Tech led Net Institutional Inflows, as Frencken Chair and DHLT CEO Raised their Stakes

TalkMed (TKMED SP)’s Super Clean Scheme

By David Blennerhassett

On the 23 Dec 2024, tertiary health care provider TalkMed (TKMED SP) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from Tamarind Health at S$0.456/share, a 20% premium to undisturbed.
Tamarind is a Singaporean-based, pan-Asian oncology-focused group. As part of the deal, Temasek-backed 65 Equity Partners will subscribe for new shares in Tamarind.
The Composite Document is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 15th July, and expected payment around the 29th August. The IFA (KPMG) says “fair & reasonable“.

Indonesia Defies Headwinds To Post Robust Rubber Exports In Early 2025

By Vinod Nedumudy

Price edge and stable grades help Indonesia stage a good show
US demand strengthens despite Trump tariffs
China demand softens, Japan slides as tariffs take effect

Asian Bond Monitor: Asian Bonds for the Upcoming Recession

By Warut Promboon

Inflation will remain sticky but we expect the recession headline to keep a lid on consumer spending which should also limit the possibility of a future rate hike.
We believe fixed rate bonds should be the instrument of choice toward the end of this year.
Rising default and a lack of growth in developed markets should also bode well for Asian US Dollar (USD) bonds.

REIT Watch – Best performing S-REITs post double digit total returns in H1

By Geoff Howie

Top S-REIT performers in H1 2025 include FHT, CICT, First REIT, FCT, and Parkway Life REIT with returns of 10.0-21.4%.
Retail investors were net buyers with S$400 million inflow, while institutions were net sellers with S$500 million outflow.
Forward dividend yield for FTSE ST REIT Index was 6.4%, with a nearly 4% yield spread to 10-year Singapore Government Bonds.

REITs and Tech led Net Institutional Inflows, as Frencken Chair and DHLT CEO Raised their Stakes

By Geoff Howie

Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks with a S$248 million outflow, led by STI banks’ S$2.73 billion outflow.
United Overseas Bank, DBS Group Holdings, and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation led share buybacks, totaling S$69.7 million in consideration.
Q & M Dental Group CEO Ng Chin Siau increased his interest to 55.78%, acquiring 7,041,300 shares via Quan Min Holdings.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 01

Daily Brief Australia: Paladin Energy, Santos Ltd, Nine Entertainment Co Holdings, APA Group, Beetaloo Energy Australia, Ricegrowers Ltd, Canyon Resources and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Paladin’s CEO Exit: Cause for Concern?
(Mostly) Asia M&A, June 2025 Wrap: Santos, Fuji Corp, Brickworks, Great Eastern, VIOL, Adriatic
Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd – The Overnight Report: Let’s Party Like It’s 1999
APA Group – Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jun 30, 2025
Beetaloo Energy Australia – Traditional Owners’ Consent Secured
Ricegrowers Ltd – Branded sales growth drives earnings
Ricegrowers Ltd – SunRice RaaS Interview Transcript
Canyon Resources — Further development progress

Paladin’s CEO Exit: Cause for Concern?

By Money of Mine

Ian Purdy departing Paladin Energy, with Paul Hamburrow stepping up as new CEO
Paladin Energy facing challenges and controversies during Purdy’s tenure
Potential implications and scrutiny surrounding Purdy’s departure and the future of the company under new leadership

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

(Mostly) Asia M&A, June 2025 Wrap: Santos, Fuji Corp, Brickworks, Great Eastern, VIOL, Adriatic

By David Blennerhassett

For June 2025, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$29bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in June was ~39%, with a year-to-date average of 47%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.

Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd – The Overnight Report: Let’s Party Like It’s 1999

A global perspective on what happened overnight

APA Group – Australian Broker Call Extra Edition – Jun 30, 2025

Extra Edition of the Broker Call Report

Beetaloo Energy Australia – Traditional Owners’ Consent Secured

Beetaloo Energy Australia Limited (ASX:BTL) is a gas development company, with onshore Northern Territory (NT) gas exploration and development assets.
BTL has the largest tenement position in the highly prospective Greater McArthur Basin, which includes the Beetaloo Sub-basin.
The company has announced it has secured the consent (‘Consent’) for the sale of gas from EP187 (Carpentaria Pilot Project) after On Country meetings with the traditional owners across 24-25 June.

Ricegrowers Ltd – Branded sales growth drives earnings

Ricegrowers Limited, trading as SunRice (ASX:SGLLV), has released its FY25 results, delivering EBITDA of $147.7m (+4% above the PCP and in line with RaaS estimates) and NPAT of $69.5m (-6% due to a higher tax rate and 3% below RaaS estimates).
Divisionally, Riviana (FX pressures) and Corporate (continued mill-out rate issues) were below our forecast while the other divisions were well above our forecasts, driven by margin mix (branded sales) and a cost/efficiency focus.
The fully franked final dividend of $0.50/share was above our forecast while the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) has been reintroduced, this time partially underwritten.

Ricegrowers Ltd – SunRice RaaS Interview Transcript