Daily Briefs

I published a Sep25 Nikkei 225 prediction list last Wednesday. By Friday, we had a new paradigm due to an ad hoc change. That new paradigm informs the September selection.
As it is, I expect one (1) ADD (Shift Inc (3697 JP)) and one (1) DELETE (Tokuyama Corp (4043 JP)) – a prediction which change on a corporate announcement.
My confidence on the ADD is a little lower due to the implications of the choice of Rohm. And the interesting ECM trade for September remains Sony Financial.

Hygon/Sugon Merger: BIG Index Flows on Completion

By Brian Freitas

On 26 May, Hygon Information Technology (688041 CH) and Dawning Information Industry (603019 CH) announced a merger in a sign of consolidation in China’s chipmaking industry.
For each share of Dawning held, shareholders will receive 0.5525 shares of Hygon. With uncertainty on the timeline for merger completion, Dawning is trading at a 10% discount.
On completion of the merger, passive trackers will need to buy over US$1.1bn of Hygon Information Technology C (688041 CH) with nearly of that from local index trackers.

Korea Holdco Rerating Pullback Risk: No Retroactive Treasury Cancellation

By Sanghyun Park

Mandatory treasury cancellation isn’t in the current bill, but FSC and MOJ have started internal reviews; enforcement decree could drop as early as Q4.
An internal policy paper suggests mandatory cancellation will apply only to newly acquired treasury shares, with tight limits on existing ones to curb owner control abuse.
Lack of retroactive cancellation weakens the bull case, and while holdco sentiment stays upbeat, momentum may fade, opening the door to a tactical pullback.

Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU) Enters Into Scheme With Shift4

Eftpos terminal provider Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ/SMP AU) has now entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Shift4 Payments (FOUR US).
Shift4 is offering NZ$1.20, the same price as that under the NBIO announced early last month. It’s a 46.05% premium to the 90-day VWAP, and 14.2x normalised FY25 EBITDA.
The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards, and also has the backing from Microequities holding 13.3% of shares out. Implementation expected in 4Q25.

TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot

China’s push for 100% auto chip localization by 2027 poses risk to Himax, which derived 75% of 1Q25 revenue from China. We engaged the company for comments./
Himax may avoid direct targeting due to Taiwanese roots and local production via CN Nexchip, and we believe is less vulnerable than Western firms like NXP, TI, and Wolfspeed.
Copackaged Optics (CPO) industry momentum continues to build as Himax continues role alongside TSMC and FOCI; industry moves from Nvidia, AMD validate long-term optical interconnect opportunity Himax is positioned for.

Apple Intelligence. What’s Another Year?

By William Keating

Apple failed to deliver on the highly anticipated Siri makeover, noting that it didn’t meet their quality standards and effectively pushing it out for another full year
Internal rivalries, divided opinions on the direction AI should take, organizational restructuring, unwillingness to do meaningful acquisitions would all appear to be contributing to Apple’s AI woes
Apple’s peers are advancing their AI ambitions at warp speed, investing heavily, taking bold risks and mostly delivering on their promises. Apple is the polar opposite. What’s another year? Failure.

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Jun 23

Daily Brief Japan: ROHM Co Ltd, JX Advanced Metals, ASICS Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL, Less Certain Than Before
JX Advanced Metals (5714 JP) – Dominant in Sputtering, Recycling Pivot, Valuations Lag Peers
ASICS (7936) | Nike Q4 Preview: Eyes on Margins and Momentum

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL, Less Certain Than Before

I published a Sep25 Nikkei 225 prediction list last Wednesday. By Friday, we had a new paradigm due to an ad hoc change. That new paradigm informs the September selection.
As it is, I expect one (1) ADD (Shift Inc (3697 JP)) and one (1) DELETE (Tokuyama Corp (4043 JP)) – a prediction which change on a corporate announcement.
My confidence on the ADD is a little lower due to the implications of the choice of Rohm. And the interesting ECM trade for September remains Sony Financial.

JX Advanced Metals (5714 JP) – Dominant in Sputtering, Recycling Pivot, Valuations Lag Peers

By Rahul Jain

Listed in March 2025 via Japan’s largest IPO since SoftBank 2018, JX Advanced Metals has since accelerated recycling, governance restructuring, and potential Toho Titanium consolidation.
A global leader in high-purity sputtering targets (35–40% share) and thin film materials, it is scaling capacity and deepening foundry partnerships (TSMC, Samsung) to capture long-term semiconductor growth.
Despite strong positioning, it trades at just ~7x EV/EBITDA FY25E—below peers—offering structural growth at value multiples amid recovering earnings and strategic asset backing.

ASICS (7936) | Nike Q4 Preview: Eyes on Margins and Momentum

Nike reports Q4 earnings Thursday. Focus for ASICS investors: (1) Sales momentum recovery, (2) Gross margin trends.
Nike’s continued weakness (global footwear sales -8% YoY in MRQ) supports bullish near-term thesis on ASICS.
However, signs of stabilization at Nike could signal increasing competitive pressure in H2/FY26.

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Jun 23

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA, Santos Ltd, JX Advanced Metals, Amrize, Iron Ore, Flynn Gold, Copper and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Curator’s Cut: Building Materials Moves, Benchmarking Gold Miners & Semaglutide in India and Japan
Weekly Deals Digest (22 Jun) – Santos, PointsBet, Mayne, HKBN, Carta, Nakano, Sanhua, FWD, CaoCao
JX Advanced Metals (5714 JP) – Dominant in Sputtering, Recycling Pivot, Valuations Lag Peers
Weekly Update (AMRZ, LION, FTV)
Iron Ore Tracker (23-June-2025): Iron Ore Due for A Small Bounce?
Flynn Gold Ltd – Building the business
Copper Tracker 23rd June 2025: Bullish On Low Inventory, But Need To Monitor China

Curator’s Cut: Building Materials Moves, Benchmarking Gold Miners & Semaglutide in India and Japan

By Pranav Rao

Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we spotlight building materials corporate actions, gold miners’ benchmark shifts, and semaglutide’s prospects in India and Japan
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message on the themes you think should be highlighted next

Weekly Deals Digest (22 Jun) – Santos, PointsBet, Mayne, HKBN, Carta, Nakano, Sanhua, FWD, CaoCao

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK) H share listing and CaoCao (2643 HK) and FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: Santos Ltd (STO AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Ascentech KK (3565 JP), Carta Holdings, Inc. (3688 JP).

JX Advanced Metals (5714 JP) – Dominant in Sputtering, Recycling Pivot, Valuations Lag Peers

By Rahul Jain

Listed in March 2025 via Japan’s largest IPO since SoftBank 2018, JX Advanced Metals has since accelerated recycling, governance restructuring, and potential Toho Titanium consolidation.
A global leader in high-purity sputtering targets (35–40% share) and thin film materials, it is scaling capacity and deepening foundry partnerships (TSMC, Samsung) to capture long-term semiconductor growth.
Despite strong positioning, it trades at just ~7x EV/EBITDA FY25E—below peers—offering structural growth at value multiples amid recovering earnings and strategic asset backing.

Weekly Update (AMRZ, LION, FTV)

By Richard Howe

Holcim (HOLN SW) spun off its construction materials and solutions business into a standalone company on Friday, June 20th.
The new company is called Amrize (AMRZ US).
The first day of trading will be Monday, June 23, 2025.

Iron Ore Tracker (23-June-2025): Iron Ore Due for A Small Bounce?

By Sameer Taneja

Iron ore continued to slip into negative territory and has now breached the lower end of the range of 95-130 USD/ton, which it has maintained over the last four years.
Data from CISA (China Iron and Steel Association) showed a decline in daily steel production YoY for May and June (tracking -4% YoY), after a lacklustre April (flat steel production).
The bright spot is that China continues to maintain strong net exports with May numbers at 10.1 million tons (121 million tons annualized), and mill margins are improving.

Flynn Gold Ltd – Building the business

Flynn Gold Limited (ASX:FG1) is a junior gold explorer which holds a portfolio of tenements (20+3 in application) across Tasmania and Western Australia.
The tenement package is prospective for several commodities, however, exploration efforts have largely focused on gold at the company’s flagship project, Golden Ridge, which is located in the north-east of Tasmania.
Field work and ongoing drilling at the project over the past two years has resulted in FG1 developing critical mass at the project which is building up towards an inaugural JORC-compliant resource.

Copper Tracker 23rd June 2025: Bullish On Low Inventory, But Need To Monitor China

By Sameer Taneja

Copper prices on the spot market are set to breach 10,000 USD/ton again as inventory levels tighten on the LME, driven by a rush to ship metal to the US.
Current KPIs in China, such as weak steel production (-2-3% YoY est.) and thermal power production (-19% YoY) for May temper our bullishness.
We are bullish on copper in the short term, expecting it to break above $10,000 USD easily. However, we will closely monitor China data for potential impacts on the outlook.

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Jun 23

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | US Launches Airstrikes in Iran and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | US Launches Airstrikes in Iran
Japan Morning Connection: US Directly Attacks Iran and Requests Japan to Spend 5% of GDP on Defense
HK Strategy: Trend of Narrowing H-A IPO Discount
Thematic Report: Indian Paper Sector – At the Bottom, Is It the Right Time?

Ohayo Japan | US Launches Airstrikes in Iran

US stocks ended mixed Friday as geopolitical tensions and rate cut speculation shaped sentiment.
The US launched airstrikes on Iran’s Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites, marking a direct intervention in Israel’s campaign to dismantle Tehran’s nuclear program
Deloitte Tohmatsu reported a surge in shareholder activism in Japan, with 43 shareholder proposals for director elections and dismissals at 2025

Japan Morning Connection: US Directly Attacks Iran and Requests Japan to Spend 5% of GDP on Defense

By Andrew Jackson

Masayoshi Son is floating a $1trn AI factory in Arizona in exchange for tax breaks.
NTT Data out, Rohm in. Downside for Ibiden, but also small buying for Fasty, Terumo, Konami and others.
Renesas announces details of its Wolfspeed restructuring deal which includes kitchen sinking the losses this year.

HK Strategy: Trend of Narrowing H-A IPO Discount

By Osbert Tang, CFA

The 6 H-share IPOs of the listed A-share companies YTD have seen their H-A discount narrowing from an average of 31% during IPO to 15.5% currently.
Larger-Cap ones tend to be priced and traded at a smaller discount to their A-shares. However, they are not necessarily those seeing the most significant narrowing in discount.
Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (3288 HK) may further narrow its discount, while Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK) also sees upside from such a perspective.

Thematic Report: Indian Paper Sector – At the Bottom, Is It the Right Time?

By Nimish Maheshwari

Paper imports have doubled in four years, with FY-25 Chinese inflows up 33 %; domestic mills’ Q4 profits collapsed 50-70 %.
Predatory pricing is idling one-third of India’s capacity, derailing INR 30,000Crs expansion plans and jeopardising jobs in a sector crucial for plastic-free packaging demand.
Near-Term recovery hinges less on demand and more on policy; anti-dumping duties could swiftly restore utilisation and margins, making FY-26 a pivotal re-rating year.

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Jun 23

Daily Brief ECM: Sanhua Intelligent Controls H Share Listing (2050 HK): Trading Debut and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Sanhua Intelligent Controls H Share Listing (2050 HK): Trading Debut
Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls A/H Trading – Strong Demand, Weakening Sentiment
Geek+ IPO Valuation Update: Growth Cratered, High U.S. Revenue Exposure
ECM Weekly (23 June 2025) – Foshan Haitian, Sanhua, Anjoy, Sany, CaoCao, Eternal, Zhou Liu, HDB Fin
Pre-IPO IFBH Pte. Ltd. (PHIP Updates) – The Hidden Risks Behind the Strong Growth and High Margins
Chandra Dayua Pre-IPO: Very Expensive, Avoid

Sanhua Intelligent Controls H Share Listing (2050 HK): Trading Debut

Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK) priced its H Share at HK$22.53 to raise HK$9,336 million (US$1.2 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
I discussed the H Share listing in Sanhua Intelligent Controls H Share Listing: The Investment Case.
Sanhua had the highest international oversubscription rates among recent large AH listings. Despite the weak price momentum, the AH discount is attractive.

Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls A/H Trading – Strong Demand, Weakening Sentiment

Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls (002050 CH) (ZSIC), a manufacturer of refrigeration and air-conditioning control components, raised around US$1.4bn in its H-share listing.
ZSIC is a market leader in a number of products, with commanding market share both domestically and globally.
We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Geek+ IPO Valuation Update: Growth Cratered, High U.S. Revenue Exposure

By Andrei Zakharov

Geek+, AI & robotics warehouse automation provider, has updated its filings and reported weak revenue growth in 2024.
Beijing based AMR solution unicorn’s revenue grew to RMB2,409m in 2024, up ~12% YoY. However, gross margins improved, operating losses narrowed, and cash burn rate decreased.
My IPO valuation analysis coalesces around initial valuation range between $2.3B and $2.7B for Geek+ upcoming offering.

ECM Weekly (23 June 2025) – Foshan Haitian, Sanhua, Anjoy, Sany, CaoCao, Eternal, Zhou Liu, HDB Fin

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Foshan Haitian (3288 HK) failed to perform at listing marking a turnaround for recent A/H listing. Sanhua Intelligent (2050 HK) will be next in line.
On the placements front, deals continued to flow across the region, with blocks in India showing no signs of abating.

Pre-IPO IFBH Pte. Ltd. (PHIP Updates) – The Hidden Risks Behind the Strong Growth and High Margins

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

IFBH’s revenue showed high growth in 2024. Due to asset-light business model, IFBH has good profit margin performance. Net profit is expected to have 20+% growth in next three years.
IFBH is facing significant pressure from intensified market competition and price wars. In recent years, a large number of brands have flooded the coconut water market, with serious product homogenization.
Considering the high risk of single product layout, concentration of customers/suppliers, and the far from perfect supply chain, there’s uncertainty in future prospects. Valuation could be lower than industry average

Chandra Dayua Pre-IPO: Very Expensive, Avoid

By Nicholas Tan

Chandra Dayua Investasi (2556380D IJ) is looking to raise up to $145m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is the infrastructure arm of Chandra Asri Pacific (TPIA), backed by Indonesian billionaire Prajogo Pangestu.
In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

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Jun 23

Daily Brief Industrials: Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Geek+, CSBC Corp Taiwan, Chandra Dayua Investasi and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Sanhua Intelligent Controls H Share Listing (2050 HK): Trading Debut
Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls A/H Trading – Strong Demand, Weakening Sentiment
Geek+ IPO Valuation Update: Growth Cratered, High U.S. Revenue Exposure
Defense Tech: Taiwan Advanced Submarine Trial & Global Turmoil Puts CSBC in the Investor Spotlight
Chandra Dayua Pre-IPO: Very Expensive, Avoid

Sanhua Intelligent Controls H Share Listing (2050 HK): Trading Debut

Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK) priced its H Share at HK$22.53 to raise HK$9,336 million (US$1.2 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
I discussed the H Share listing in Sanhua Intelligent Controls H Share Listing: The Investment Case.
Sanhua had the highest international oversubscription rates among recent large AH listings. Despite the weak price momentum, the AH discount is attractive.

Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls A/H Trading – Strong Demand, Weakening Sentiment

Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls (002050 CH) (ZSIC), a manufacturer of refrigeration and air-conditioning control components, raised around US$1.4bn in its H-share listing.
ZSIC is a market leader in a number of products, with commanding market share both domestically and globally.
We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Geek+ IPO Valuation Update: Growth Cratered, High U.S. Revenue Exposure

By Andrei Zakharov

Geek+, AI & robotics warehouse automation provider, has updated its filings and reported weak revenue growth in 2024.
Beijing based AMR solution unicorn’s revenue grew to RMB2,409m in 2024, up ~12% YoY. However, gross margins improved, operating losses narrowed, and cash burn rate decreased.
My IPO valuation analysis coalesces around initial valuation range between $2.3B and $2.7B for Geek+ upcoming offering.

Defense Tech: Taiwan Advanced Submarine Trial & Global Turmoil Puts CSBC in the Investor Spotlight

Submarine Milestone Validates CSBC’s Strategic Role: Taiwan’s June 17 maiden sea trial of the Hai Kun-class submarine highlights CSBC as the sole builder of Taiwan’s Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS) program.
Scale of Program Is Significant vs. Market Cap: Seven additional submarines are expected to follow, with a reported program budget of NT$284bn (~US$9.5bn), over 12x CSBC’s current US$760m market cap.
Emerging Naval, Drones, & Energy Platforms Provide Optionality: Beyond submarines, CSBC is expanding into unmanned surface vessels (USVs) and offshore wind engineering, offering long-term exposure to Taiwan’s asymmetric defense.

Chandra Dayua Pre-IPO: Very Expensive, Avoid

By Nicholas Tan

Chandra Dayua Investasi (2556380D IJ) is looking to raise up to $145m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is the infrastructure arm of Chandra Asri Pacific (TPIA), backed by Indonesian billionaire Prajogo Pangestu.
In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

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Jun 23

Daily Brief Financials: ANZ Group Holdings, China Life Insurance Company, ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance C and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Long ANZ (ANZ AU), Short National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Banking on Statistical Arbitrage
Two Asian Life Insurance Stocks (Both Up >30% YTD) Worth Closer Looks
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 20 June 2025); Net Buying, Volumes Up, TECH Down, BANKS Bought
Relative Value Roundup: Performance Recap of Pair Trades in Asia-Pacific

Long ANZ (ANZ AU), Short National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Banking on Statistical Arbitrage

Context: Statistical analysis of a relative value opportunity in the Australian Banking industry between ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU) and National Australia Bank (NAB AU).
Highlights: Going long ANZ and short NAB targets a 4.5% return to the statistical mean reversion level, with ANZ supported by cheaper valuations.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Two Asian Life Insurance Stocks (Both Up >30% YTD) Worth Closer Looks

By Alec Tseung

Share prices of China Life and Prudential plc have been up by 33% and 40% – 50% YTD, respectively.
China Life’s agency restructuring is bearing fruit, as evidenced by increasing agency productivity, and is expected to continue driving new business growth and margin expansion.
Our previous thesis for Prudential plc remains largely intact. Albeit the strong share price performance YTD, valuation upside remains as its new business multiple continues to re-rate.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 20 June 2025); Net Buying, Volumes Up, TECH Down, BANKS Bought

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes up to US$15+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying still positive but still below US$500mm/day.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. PROPERTIES too. Among top sells, INFO TECH again. 10 weeks in a row negative. Tencent bigly sold.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Relative Value Roundup: Performance Recap of Pair Trades in Asia-Pacific

Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
Highlight: Six pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist. Two
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

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Jun 23

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Merger Arb Mondays (23 June) – ENN Energy and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (23 June) – ENN Energy, Dickson, HKBN, Mayne, Insignia, Santos, Smartpay
Hygon/Sugon Merger: BIG Index Flows on Completion
Korea Holdco Rerating Pullback Risk: No Retroactive Treasury Cancellation
PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr’s “Superior Offer”? In An Alternate Reality
Weekly Deals Digest (22 Jun) – Santos, PointsBet, Mayne, HKBN, Carta, Nakano, Sanhua, FWD, CaoCao
Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU) Enters Into Scheme With Shift4
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 20 June 2025); Net Buying, Volumes Up, TECH Down, BANKS Bought
Weekly Update (AMRZ, LION, FTV)

Merger Arb Mondays (23 June) – ENN Energy, Dickson, HKBN, Mayne, Insignia, Santos, Smartpay

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Santos Ltd (STO AU).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK), Ascentech KK (3565 JP), Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK).

Hygon/Sugon Merger: BIG Index Flows on Completion

By Brian Freitas

On 26 May, Hygon Information Technology (688041 CH) and Dawning Information Industry (603019 CH) announced a merger in a sign of consolidation in China’s chipmaking industry.
For each share of Dawning held, shareholders will receive 0.5525 shares of Hygon. With uncertainty on the timeline for merger completion, Dawning is trading at a 10% discount.
On completion of the merger, passive trackers will need to buy over US$1.1bn of Hygon Information Technology C (688041 CH) with nearly of that from local index trackers.

Korea Holdco Rerating Pullback Risk: No Retroactive Treasury Cancellation

By Sanghyun Park

Mandatory treasury cancellation isn’t in the current bill, but FSC and MOJ have started internal reviews; enforcement decree could drop as early as Q4.
An internal policy paper suggests mandatory cancellation will apply only to newly acquired treasury shares, with tight limits on existing ones to curb owner control abuse.
Lack of retroactive cancellation weakens the bull case, and while holdco sentiment stays upbeat, momentum may fade, opening the door to a tactical pullback.

PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr’s “Superior Offer”? In An Alternate Reality

BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) has now tabled an all scrip off-market offer for PointsBet (PBH AU) – no minimum acceptance condition – which they consider superior to MIXI (2121 JP)‘s.
Really? 3.81 new betr shares is currently equivalent to A$1.143/share versus MIXI’s A$1.20/share all-cash Offer. Terms backed out just A$1.086/share at the start of trading last Friday.
PointsBet quite rightly states the obvious – betr’s Offer is materially below MIXI’s.

Weekly Deals Digest (22 Jun) – Santos, PointsBet, Mayne, HKBN, Carta, Nakano, Sanhua, FWD, CaoCao

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK) H share listing and CaoCao (2643 HK) and FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: Santos Ltd (STO AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Ascentech KK (3565 JP), Carta Holdings, Inc. (3688 JP).

Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU) Enters Into Scheme With Shift4

Eftpos terminal provider Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ/SMP AU) has now entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Shift4 Payments (FOUR US).
Shift4 is offering NZ$1.20, the same price as that under the NBIO announced early last month. It’s a 46.05% premium to the 90-day VWAP, and 14.2x normalised FY25 EBITDA.
The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards, and also has the backing from Microequities holding 13.3% of shares out. Implementation expected in 4Q25.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 20 June 2025); Net Buying, Volumes Up, TECH Down, BANKS Bought

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes up to US$15+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying still positive but still below US$500mm/day.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. PROPERTIES too. Among top sells, INFO TECH again. 10 weeks in a row negative. Tencent bigly sold.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Weekly Update (AMRZ, LION, FTV)

By Richard Howe

Holcim (HOLN SW) spun off its construction materials and solutions business into a standalone company on Friday, June 20th.
The new company is called Amrize (AMRZ US).
The first day of trading will be Monday, June 23, 2025.

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Jun 23

Daily Brief Consumer: PointsBet Holdings , Mixue Group, ASICS Corp, Alibaba Group Holding , IFBH and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr’s “Superior Offer”? In An Alternate Reality
MIXUE (2097 HK): Chill but Powerful Global Index Inclusion
ASICS (7936) | Nike Q4 Preview: Eyes on Margins and Momentum
ECM Weekly (23 June 2025) – Foshan Haitian, Sanhua, Anjoy, Sany, CaoCao, Eternal, Zhou Liu, HDB Fin
Pre-IPO IFBH Pte. Ltd. (PHIP Updates) – The Hidden Risks Behind the Strong Growth and High Margins

PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr’s “Superior Offer”? In An Alternate Reality

BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) has now tabled an all scrip off-market offer for PointsBet (PBH AU) – no minimum acceptance condition – which they consider superior to MIXI (2121 JP)‘s.
Really? 3.81 new betr shares is currently equivalent to A$1.143/share versus MIXI’s A$1.20/share all-cash Offer. Terms backed out just A$1.086/share at the start of trading last Friday.
PointsBet quite rightly states the obvious – betr’s Offer is materially below MIXI’s.

MIXUE (2097 HK): Chill but Powerful Global Index Inclusion

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Mixue Group (2097 HK) is forecasted to be added to Global All-World at the September 2025 review with a low free float prior to the IPO lock-up expiry.
Mixue Group (2097 HK) is expected to undergo a significant upweight at the December 2025 review following the 6-month lock-up expiry.
Mixue Group (2097 HK) is forecasted to be added to Global Standard at the May 2026 review following the 12-month lock-up expiry.

ASICS (7936) | Nike Q4 Preview: Eyes on Margins and Momentum

Nike reports Q4 earnings Thursday. Focus for ASICS investors: (1) Sales momentum recovery, (2) Gross margin trends.
Nike’s continued weakness (global footwear sales -8% YoY in MRQ) supports bullish near-term thesis on ASICS.
However, signs of stabilization at Nike could signal increasing competitive pressure in H2/FY26.

ECM Weekly (23 June 2025) – Foshan Haitian, Sanhua, Anjoy, Sany, CaoCao, Eternal, Zhou Liu, HDB Fin

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Foshan Haitian (3288 HK) failed to perform at listing marking a turnaround for recent A/H listing. Sanhua Intelligent (2050 HK) will be next in line.
On the placements front, deals continued to flow across the region, with blocks in India showing no signs of abating.

Pre-IPO IFBH Pte. Ltd. (PHIP Updates) – The Hidden Risks Behind the Strong Growth and High Margins

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

IFBH’s revenue showed high growth in 2024. Due to asset-light business model, IFBH has good profit margin performance. Net profit is expected to have 20+% growth in next three years.
IFBH is facing significant pressure from intensified market competition and price wars. In recent years, a large number of brands have flooded the coconut water market, with serious product homogenization.
Considering the high risk of single product layout, concentration of customers/suppliers, and the far from perfect supply chain, there’s uncertainty in future prospects. Valuation could be lower than industry average

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Jun 23

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Long ANZ (ANZ AU) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Long ANZ (ANZ AU), Short National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Banking on Statistical Arbitrage
JX Advanced Metals (5714 JP) – Dominant in Sputtering, Recycling Pivot, Valuations Lag Peers
Two Asian Life Insurance Stocks (Both Up >30% YTD) Worth Closer Looks
ASICS (7936) | Nike Q4 Preview: Eyes on Margins and Momentum
TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot
Defense Tech: Taiwan Advanced Submarine Trial & Global Turmoil Puts CSBC in the Investor Spotlight
Relative Value Roundup: Performance Recap of Pair Trades in Asia-Pacific
Apple Intelligence. What’s Another Year?
Flynn Gold Ltd – Building the business

Long ANZ (ANZ AU), Short National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Banking on Statistical Arbitrage

Context: Statistical analysis of a relative value opportunity in the Australian Banking industry between ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU) and National Australia Bank (NAB AU).
Highlights: Going long ANZ and short NAB targets a 4.5% return to the statistical mean reversion level, with ANZ supported by cheaper valuations.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

JX Advanced Metals (5714 JP) – Dominant in Sputtering, Recycling Pivot, Valuations Lag Peers

By Rahul Jain

Listed in March 2025 via Japan’s largest IPO since SoftBank 2018, JX Advanced Metals has since accelerated recycling, governance restructuring, and potential Toho Titanium consolidation.
A global leader in high-purity sputtering targets (35–40% share) and thin film materials, it is scaling capacity and deepening foundry partnerships (TSMC, Samsung) to capture long-term semiconductor growth.
Despite strong positioning, it trades at just ~7x EV/EBITDA FY25E—below peers—offering structural growth at value multiples amid recovering earnings and strategic asset backing.

Two Asian Life Insurance Stocks (Both Up >30% YTD) Worth Closer Looks

By Alec Tseung

Share prices of China Life and Prudential plc have been up by 33% and 40% – 50% YTD, respectively.
China Life’s agency restructuring is bearing fruit, as evidenced by increasing agency productivity, and is expected to continue driving new business growth and margin expansion.
Our previous thesis for Prudential plc remains largely intact. Albeit the strong share price performance YTD, valuation upside remains as its new business multiple continues to re-rate.

ASICS (7936) | Nike Q4 Preview: Eyes on Margins and Momentum

Nike reports Q4 earnings Thursday. Focus for ASICS investors: (1) Sales momentum recovery, (2) Gross margin trends.
Nike’s continued weakness (global footwear sales -8% YoY in MRQ) supports bullish near-term thesis on ASICS.
However, signs of stabilization at Nike could signal increasing competitive pressure in H2/FY26.

TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot

China’s push for 100% auto chip localization by 2027 poses risk to Himax, which derived 75% of 1Q25 revenue from China. We engaged the company for comments./
Himax may avoid direct targeting due to Taiwanese roots and local production via CN Nexchip, and we believe is less vulnerable than Western firms like NXP, TI, and Wolfspeed.
Copackaged Optics (CPO) industry momentum continues to build as Himax continues role alongside TSMC and FOCI; industry moves from Nvidia, AMD validate long-term optical interconnect opportunity Himax is positioned for.

Defense Tech: Taiwan Advanced Submarine Trial & Global Turmoil Puts CSBC in the Investor Spotlight

Submarine Milestone Validates CSBC’s Strategic Role: Taiwan’s June 17 maiden sea trial of the Hai Kun-class submarine highlights CSBC as the sole builder of Taiwan’s Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS) program.
Scale of Program Is Significant vs. Market Cap: Seven additional submarines are expected to follow, with a reported program budget of NT$284bn (~US$9.5bn), over 12x CSBC’s current US$760m market cap.
Emerging Naval, Drones, & Energy Platforms Provide Optionality: Beyond submarines, CSBC is expanding into unmanned surface vessels (USVs) and offshore wind engineering, offering long-term exposure to Taiwan’s asymmetric defense.

Relative Value Roundup: Performance Recap of Pair Trades in Asia-Pacific