Daily Briefs

• Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. It’s back again to raise another US$600m via a placement.
• Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
• In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has been range-bound since October 2024, its chart pattern echoing a flat EKG with brief spikes… we suggested to BUY on May 20th, now up +7%….
• Still, maybe something is changing, the stock is about to reach a reversal point, it will pullback soon, but it may be a brief, buy-the-dip opportunity, possibly before a rally.
• Our price and time models currently indicate there is considerable resistance to rally higher: this week may be the last one up before the pullback.

• Kumamoto 2nd Fab delayed because of bad traffic? Sure, bad traffic, but legacy Fab utilization is 70%, who needs additional capacity now and in 2026? Legacy demand remains weak. 
• Arizona construction is accelerating, highlighting the dichotomy that I’ve been mentioning : demand for AI / Data Center is booming, demand for Legacy (specially auto & industrial) remains weak. 
• 2nm yield reached 90%. True, but that’s the yield of SRAM test cell. This is not a production yield. SRAM is a very small cell used to qualify volume ramp. 

• Nippo produced record earnings in FY24, with OP of ¥1,970mil (+2.7% YoY) on sales of ¥44,890mil (+7.1% YoY).
• Thanks primarily to solid growth in order for print circuit boards [PCBs] used in generative AI servers and wafer polishing jigs manufactured in Nippo’s Okinawa factory, sales landed above the firm’s guidance of ¥42,000mil.
• FY25 is the final year of Nippo’s medium-term plan [MTP] which calls for an OP target of ¥2,000mil.

• There is speculation that the cost of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) 1.4nm wafers is more than 30% higher than that of 2nm wafers.  
• In semiconductor node migration, newly introduced solutions are generally more advanced and therefore more valuable—which naturally means higher costs.
• Apple (AAPL US)’s iPhone consistently adopts TSMC’s most advanced technology, ensuring its products maintain industry-leading operational efficiency.

• Product authentication and legitimacy are paramount for The RealReal (NASDAQ: REAL), which sells used luxury items.
• But our research indicates that REAL’s authentication lets through many counterfeits, and that has enraged both buyers and sellers, undermining the sense of trust.
• REAL has applied AI to the authentication problem to speed things up, but we see no evidence of effectiveness.

• The offer provides a 2.7% gross spread with a 7.7% annualized return, supported by board approval, firm structure, and high market-implied probability of success near 92%.
• Downside risk is significant if the deal breaks, but the structured offer, regulatory clarity, and low interloper risk support a small-to-moderate position in diversified event-driven portfolios.
• Further upside depends on unexpected bid competition, ticking fees, or faster-than-expected settlement; otherwise, the return is modest but acceptable in stable arbitrage environments.

• Cumulative Q3 FY07/25 revenue was JPY18.7bn (+14.2% YoY), operating profit JPY4.0bn (+6.5% YoY), net income JPY2.9bn (+11.5% YoY).
• Consumer Service segment revenue reached JPY16.8bn (+18.2% YoY), with a segment profit of JPY3.9bn (+11.3% YoY).
• Online Advertising segment revenue was JPY1.8bn (-13.3% YoY), segment profit JPY121mn (-61.7% YoY), with promotion costs JPY319mn (-14.7% YoY).

Frontier Developments’ shares reacted strongly to the May update announcing that FY25 revenues would be slightly ahead of consensus expectations of £85–89m. Today’s FY25 update builds on this, adding a growing cash position and confidence in ‘further annual growth in FY26’. All eyes will be on the 21 October launch of Jurassic World Evolution 3, with the franchise’s very modest 4% y-o-y revenue decline in FY25 illustrating the strength of the title.

• In today’s edition: • KPN | ODF scales back fiber ambitions • InPost / Allegro | antitrust office starts investigation regarding Allegro’s delivery methods • DHL | Evri plans to increase its number of couriers by 5,000