Category

Daily Briefs

Jun 06
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Tam Jai International, Ola Electric, yutori , Lands’ End Inc, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document
  • Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Excellent Offer. Still.
  • Ola Electric: Hyundai Exits Amid Slowing Sales, Delayed Cells and Fundraising Plans.
  • Yutori Doubles Sales Again
  • LE: 1Q Review: Holding the Course in Rough Waters; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT
  • What the Tokyo Market Needs Is a Metabolism and Replacement with Motivated Managers

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document

By Arun George

  • The spread to TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation (3397 JP)’s HK$1.58 offer for Tam Jai International (2217 HK) has risen to 9.7% ahead of the scheme document’s release. 
  • Several readers have asked whether the Tam Jai offer will mirror the Goldlion and Soundwill deal break. The schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.
  • The scheme’s vote risk has undoubtedly increased partly due to the recent 2025 results and deal breaks. This situation warrants a safety-first approach.  

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Excellent Offer. Still.

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 17th Feb, a specialty restaurant-operator Tam Jai (2217 HK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from TORIDOLL (3397 JP) at HK$1.58/share, a 75.56% premium to undisturbed.
  • This should get up; but really, given the recent Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) and Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) failures, small, illiquid arbs are not the preferred haven for arb investors.
  • The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 30th June, and payment on or before the 26 August. The IFA (Lego Corporate) says “fair & reasonable“.

Ola Electric: Hyundai Exits Amid Slowing Sales, Delayed Cells and Fundraising Plans.

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Hyundai Motor (005380 KS)  and Kia Corp (000270 KS) have exited their investment in Ola Electric through a combined stake sale worth USD80 million, at a discount to market prices.
  • The exit marks the end of their 2019 investment in the then-unlisted 2W EV startup and highlights rising investor concerns over Ola Electric’s growth trajectory and operational challenges.
  • Ola Electric had listed less than a year ago with bullish growth projections, but the stock is down  34% from the issue price and 63% from post-IPO high prices.

Yutori Doubles Sales Again

By Michael Causton

  • Yutori is still a small business but is sometimes dubbed the Zozo of youth fashion, which is probably why Zozo bought a share in the online mall. 
  • And it’s proving a good bet, with sales doubling last year and a lot more expansion to come.
  • Thanks in part to investment in retail stores but also its uncanny ability to spot youth trends.

LE: 1Q Review: Holding the Course in Rough Waters; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating and $20 price target for Lands’ End and leaving our projections for the remainder of FY25 and FY26 basically unchanged after the company reported inline 1Q EPS, but revenue and EBITDA at the lower end of their guidance and below Street expectations.
  • That said, given the shift to higher licensing revenue (up 60%), the overall 1Q YoY revenue decline of 8.5%, with gross margins rising 210 bp, was not a material surprise.
  • Management reiterated FY25 guidance, as the company has mitigated the impact of tariffs and is focused on continuing to drive higher overall returns via increased licensing, lower inventories and discounting and shifting the customer base to a younger group focused on solutions for their lifestyle.

What the Tokyo Market Needs Is a Metabolism and Replacement with Motivated Managers

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The background for raising the maintaining listing criteria was that the current criteria are loose and that many companies aren’t motivated to grow because they consider IPO to be goal.
  • Too long time horizons and previous listing maintenance criteria that might have been manageable did not create a sense of urgency for the company to grow.
  • There’s concern that quality of standard market, to which companies that fail the criteria migrate, will deteriorate, and the entire market will need metabolism and replacement of management through M&A.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jun 06
0

Daily Brief Financials: Keppel DC REIT, FnGuide Inc, Interactive Brokers Group, Inc, Banco BPM SpA, Bank Of India and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • STTF Index Rebalance: Keppel DC REIT Replaces Jardine Cycle & Carriage
  • FnGuide Sector ETF Boom: Sniffing Out Uncrowded Flow Trades
  • [Quiddity Index Jun25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Final Predictions APP and IBKR
  • Cross-Border Capital: BAMI, Brussels, and the Battle for Banking Integration
  • Relative Value Opportunity: Bank of India (BOI IN) Vs. Union Bank of India (UNBK IN)

STTF Index Rebalance: Keppel DC REIT Replaces Jardine Cycle & Carriage

By Brian Freitas

FnGuide Sector ETF Boom: Sniffing Out Uncrowded Flow Trades

By Sanghyun Park

  • Korea’s ETF market just hit KRW 200T AUM — doubling in under 2 years. ETFs now make up ~10% of KOSPI’s cap and over half its daily trading volume.
  • FnGuide dominates Korea’s sector theme ETF space, capturing ~KRW 9T of the KRW 14T market — far ahead of KRX — with momentum accelerating in early 2025.
  • FnGuide’s rebalancing process is drawing more trader interest lately, with rising inquiries suggesting faster market learning — prompting earlier pre-positioning in sector ETF flow trades.

[Quiddity Index Jun25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Final Predictions APP and IBKR

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • The rankings used for the June 2025 index rebal event will be based on yesterday’s (4th June 2025) opening prices. The announcement will be after the close on Friday.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs/DELs (along with a tracker of all live spinoff/M&A events which affect the index the next two quarters).

Cross-Border Capital: BAMI, Brussels, and the Battle for Banking Integration

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • BAMI’s standalone upside remains compelling, trading at a discount to peers with solid capital ratios and structural re-rating catalysts, including asset management and insurance earnings now contributing more meaningfully.
  • The deal’s outcome hinges on golden power clearance and potential EU legal action; UniCredit’s resolve and Brussels’ support add optionality, despite headline and regulatory risk remaining high.
  • I see asymmetric outcomes favoring long BAMI positions or selective pair trades; timing risk is real, but downside is cushioned by valuation and sector consolidation dynamics.

Relative Value Opportunity: Bank of India (BOI IN) Vs. Union Bank of India (UNBK IN)

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Bank of India (BOI IN) vs. Union Bank of India (UNBK IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, signaling a potential pair trade.
  • The potential relative value opportunity can be implemented through stocks, derivatives, or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
  • This Insight provides a target return and discusses trade setup and risk management strategies.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jun 06
0

Daily Brief ESG: What the Tokyo Market Needs Is a Metabolism and Replacement with Motivated Managers and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • What the Tokyo Market Needs Is a Metabolism and Replacement with Motivated Managers

What the Tokyo Market Needs Is a Metabolism and Replacement with Motivated Managers

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The background for raising the maintaining listing criteria was that the current criteria are loose and that many companies aren’t motivated to grow because they consider IPO to be goal.
  • Too long time horizons and previous listing maintenance criteria that might have been manageable did not create a sense of urgency for the company to grow.
  • There’s concern that quality of standard market, to which companies that fail the criteria migrate, will deteriorate, and the entire market will need metabolism and replacement of management through M&A.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jun 06
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Trump’s Disappointment and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Trump’s Disappointment
  • China’s AI Strategy Isn’t About Catching up to the West – It’s About Out-Deploying It.
  • Japan Morning Connection: Dull Tone to Start as Musk Squabble Overshadows Trump’s Call with China
  • Silver Market Snapshot: Rising Prices, Industrial Tailwinds, and Strategic Exposure
  • South Africa Listed Property Review – May 2025
  • Global and Indian Textile Industry-Shifting Supply Chains,Innovation in Materials,and Policy Support
  • Circle IPO: Wall Street’s New Fintech Darling Prices Above Range
  • #159 India Insights: Adani Enters Ground Handling, Palm Oil Imports 87% Surge, Zepto Delays IPO

Ohayo Japan | Trump’s Disappointment

By Mark Chadwick

  • Stocks fell as Tesla plunged, Trump-Xi tensions resurfaced, and weak labor data fueled economic concerns ahead of Friday’s key nonfarm payrolls report.
  • Suzuki suspends Swift production due to China’s rare earth export limits, disrupting global supply chains. This could get ugly.
  • Palliser Capital opposes Keisei’s board, pushing for governance reform and a reduced Oriental Land stake to boost capital efficiency. Unlikely to sway other shareholders

China’s AI Strategy Isn’t About Catching up to the West – It’s About Out-Deploying It.

By Finimize Research

  • China’s wiring AI directly into the real economy: across consumer platforms, supply chains, and public services. That real-world focus could power the country’s next growth wave.
  • Valuations are cheap. Risks are well known. And if one macro domino falls the right way – a policy shift, demand recovery, geopolitics thaw – the upside could be substantial.  
  • So I built the China AI Deployment 10 basket. These stocks aren’t a moonshot: they’re a leveraged play on one of the most consequential tech shifts in China’s modern economy.

Japan Morning Connection: Dull Tone to Start as Musk Squabble Overshadows Trump’s Call with China

By Andrew Jackson

  • Suzuki stopping production of the Suzuki swift due to lack of rare earth from China may be the new normal for autos.
  • ISpace lunar lander fails to touch down on the moon (again), while Musk is threatening to decommission his Dragon rockets.
  • Sekisui House numbers missed on poor margins and order outlook for its US detached housing business.

Silver Market Snapshot: Rising Prices, Industrial Tailwinds, and Strategic Exposure

By Rahul Jain

  • Silver prices have rallied 20% YTD to $35.60/oz, supported by strong industrial demand and a persistent market deficit.
  • Despite being a small market compared to gold and copper, silver offers niche exposure through major producers like Hindustan Zinc, Fresnillo, and Pan American.
  • Structural undersupply, driven by green tech and limited new mine capacity, positions silver as a high-beta hedge and a strategic long-term play.

South Africa Listed Property Review – May 2025

By Garreth Elston

  • Building upon the positive momentum in April, May was once again a positive month.
  • All Property Index ended the month up 4.22% in total returns (key to note is that it was the last three trading days that saved Index from a down month).
  • Overall market sentiment showed cautious optimism, supported by some encouraging company results, but was arguably saved by the SARB’s 25 bps interest rate cut injecting a shot of optimism.

Global and Indian Textile Industry-Shifting Supply Chains,Innovation in Materials,and Policy Support

By Sreemant Dudhoria

  • Global and Indian textile markets face shifting supply chains due to geopolitical tensions, driving sourcing diversification towards India.
  • There’s a significant push for innovation in materials, focusing on man-made fibers, sustainable, and technical textiles globally and in India
  • The Indian textile industry benefits from strong government policy support, including protective tariffs and various incentive schemes

Circle IPO: Wall Street’s New Fintech Darling Prices Above Range

By Tatja Karkkainen

  • With an IPO valuation of roughly $8.2 billion and current forward P/E of ~32 ×, Circle still looks poised for multiple expansion as regulatory clarity and stable-coin adoption gather pace.
  • Deal upsized from 32 m to 34 m shares, and priced $3 above the top of the original range, boosting total proceeds by >20 %
  • Public float increases to ~13 % of the company, modestly improving trading liquidity while founders retain long-term control via Class B shares

#159 India Insights: Adani Enters Ground Handling, Palm Oil Imports 87% Surge, Zepto Delays IPO

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Adani Group enters the airport ground handling sector, expanding its operations after Celebi’s exit. It aims to bid for major contracts and compete with established players.
  • India’s palm oil imports surged 87% in May due to low stocks and better prices, likely lifting global palm and soy oil prices in coming months.
  • Zepto (1936629D IN) postpones its IPO to 2026, shifting focus to private fundraising and cutting cash burn amid growing competition and operational challenges.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jun 06
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Treasury yields fell 9-10 bps across the curve yesterday, as the weak ADP employment and ISM services data raised expectations for Fed rate cuts.
  • The yield on the 2Y UST declined 9 bps to 3.87%, while that on the 10Y UST was down 10 bps at 4.36%.
  • Equities were largely steady, with the S&P 500 unchanged and the Nasdaq up 0.3%. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jun 06
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: MBK Partners Plans to Launch a Tender Offer for Makino Milling Machine and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • MBK Partners Plans to Launch a Tender Offer for Makino Milling Machine
  • Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document
  • Accounting for Soul Patts/Brickworks’ Feedback Loop
  • Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Excellent Offer. Still.
  • Mayne Pharma Faces Legal Challenges as Cosette Attempts to Terminate Acquisition Over Material Adverse Clause Claims
  • Ola Electric: Hyundai Exits Amid Slowing Sales, Delayed Cells and Fundraising Plans.
  • Cross-Border Capital: BAMI, Brussels, and the Battle for Banking Integration

MBK Partners Plans to Launch a Tender Offer for Makino Milling Machine

By Douglas Kim

  • MBK Partners plans to launch a tender offer for Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP) at 11,751 yen per share by early December to take over the controlling ownership. 
  • The key long-term investment case for Makino is that it is one of the best companies in the world for making advanced machine tools that are increasingly becoming more sophisticated.
  • One could make the argument that this may not the final offer and some investors may require slightly higher prices in order to make the deal final. 

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document

By Arun George

  • The spread to TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation (3397 JP)’s HK$1.58 offer for Tam Jai International (2217 HK) has risen to 9.7% ahead of the scheme document’s release. 
  • Several readers have asked whether the Tam Jai offer will mirror the Goldlion and Soundwill deal break. The schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.
  • The scheme’s vote risk has undoubtedly increased partly due to the recent 2025 results and deal breaks. This situation warrants a safety-first approach.  

Accounting for Soul Patts/Brickworks’ Feedback Loop

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 2 June, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) (Soul Patts) and Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU), announced that, via inter-conditional Schemes, they would collapse their circularity. 
  • A new ASX-listed company (TopCo) would acquire all of the shares in Soul Patts and Brickworks, via the issuance of TopCo shares; 1:1 for Sout Patts, and 0.82:1 for Brickworks. 
  • Given the cross-holding,  an interesting exercise is understanding the underlying values for both Soul Patts and Brickworks.

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Excellent Offer. Still.

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 17th Feb, a specialty restaurant-operator Tam Jai (2217 HK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from TORIDOLL (3397 JP) at HK$1.58/share, a 75.56% premium to undisturbed.
  • This should get up; but really, given the recent Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) and Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) failures, small, illiquid arbs are not the preferred haven for arb investors.
  • The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 30th June, and payment on or before the 26 August. The IFA (Lego Corporate) says “fair & reasonable“.

Mayne Pharma Faces Legal Challenges as Cosette Attempts to Terminate Acquisition Over Material Adverse Clause Claims

By Special Situation Investments

  • Mayne Pharma’s acquisition by Cosette Pharmaceuticals faces challenges due to claims of material adverse changes, including financial performance and litigation issues.
  • Australian activist fund Harvest Lane Asset Management is building a position in MYX, arguing Cosette lacks grounds to terminate the deal.
  • Recent developments include FDA issue resolution, countersuit against TherapeuticsMD, and potential for a modest price cut agreement.

Ola Electric: Hyundai Exits Amid Slowing Sales, Delayed Cells and Fundraising Plans.

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Hyundai Motor (005380 KS)  and Kia Corp (000270 KS) have exited their investment in Ola Electric through a combined stake sale worth USD80 million, at a discount to market prices.
  • The exit marks the end of their 2019 investment in the then-unlisted 2W EV startup and highlights rising investor concerns over Ola Electric’s growth trajectory and operational challenges.
  • Ola Electric had listed less than a year ago with bullish growth projections, but the stock is down  34% from the issue price and 63% from post-IPO high prices.

Cross-Border Capital: BAMI, Brussels, and the Battle for Banking Integration

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • BAMI’s standalone upside remains compelling, trading at a discount to peers with solid capital ratios and structural re-rating catalysts, including asset management and insurance earnings now contributing more meaningfully.
  • The deal’s outcome hinges on golden power clearance and potential EU legal action; UniCredit’s resolve and Brussels’ support add optionality, despite headline and regulatory risk remaining high.
  • I see asymmetric outcomes favoring long BAMI positions or selective pair trades; timing risk is real, but downside is cushioned by valuation and sector consolidation dynamics.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jun 06
0

Daily Brief Macro: Lee Jae-Myung’s 20 Trillion Won+ Supplementary Budget: Free Money and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Lee Jae-Myung’s 20 Trillion Won+ Supplementary Budget: Free Money, Don’t Worry and Be Happy
  • ECB: Policy Well-Positioned Already
  • The Art of the Trade War: XI WATCHES AS TRUMP SERVES TACOS
  • CX Daily: AI Video Is Becoming a Sector to Watch in China, but Don’t Get Out the Popcorn Yet
  • [ETP 2025/23] WTI Rises on Supply Disruptions, Henry Hub Gains on Summer Demand Outlook
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 6 June 2025

Lee Jae-Myung’s 20 Trillion Won+ Supplementary Budget: Free Money, Don’t Worry and Be Happy

By Douglas Kim

  • One of the major policies that Lee Jae-Myung’s new administration is likely to push through is the 20 trillion won (US$15 billion)+ supplementary budget. 
  • The aim of this policy is to revive the sluggish domestic economy. It is a classic “spend first, worry later” government policy.
  • The supplementary budget is basically sacrificing the balance sheet of the entire South Korea at the expense of short term economic stimulus which may have just limited impact. 

ECB: Policy Well-Positioned Already

By Phil Rush

  • The ECB’s 25bp cut took rates to a level that it considers well-positioned for the current outlook, thereby removing the presumption in favour of further easing.
  • Lower headline inflation forecasts are already embedded in that judgement, with the temporary role of energy and FX recognised. Downside risks preserve some dovish bias.
  • We still see this rate cut as the final one amid tight labour markets that preserve excessive underlying inflationary pressure. Market pricing should be less dovish.

The Art of the Trade War: XI WATCHES AS TRUMP SERVES TACOS

By David Mudd

  • President Xi agreed to discuss issues including rare earths, chip design restrictions, and Chinese student visas with President Trump.  China warns the US on its increased arms shipments to Taiwan.
  • The auto industry is facing disruptions in production due to shortages of rare earth metals.  
  • The headline noise is starting to lose its luster as soft and hard data signals begin to pressure markets again.

CX Daily: AI Video Is Becoming a Sector to Watch in China, but Don’t Get Out the Popcorn Yet

By Caixin Global

  • AI / In Depth: AI video is becoming a sector to watch in China, but don’t get out the popcorn yet Video generation tools powered by artificial intelligence (AI) have become one of the hottest investments for China’s big tech companies as they look to broaden their revenue streams.
  • Since ChatGPT developer OpenAI surprised the world with its text-to-video model Sora in February 2024, Chinese companies have rapidly rolled out similar tools that have been used to make short films and video series.
  • Law / China bolsters graft watchdog with new powers China is set to grant its powerful anti-corruption watchdog new investigative powers and significantly extend detention limits for suspects, signaling a further toughening of President Xi Jinping’s signature anti-graft campaign.

[ETP 2025/23] WTI Rises on Supply Disruptions, Henry Hub Gains on Summer Demand Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 30/May, U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.3m barrels (vs. expectations of a 2.9m barrel decline). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
  • The EIA reported a 122 Bcf storage build, while analysts forecasted a 111 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 4.7% above the five-year average but 10% below year-ago levels.
  • JPMorgan sees Reliance earnings rebounding on better margins; Saudi Aramco cuts Asia crude prices after OPEC+ supply hike.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 6 June 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • Most Asian manufacturing sectors show contraction, with India, the Philippines, and Thailand as rare exceptions.

  • Political instability is rising in Japan, Korea, and the Philippines, impacting economic direction.

  • Weak retail sales and falling real incomes highlight persistent economic challenges in Hong Kong and Japan.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jun 06
0

Daily Brief ECM: Wistron GDR Offering – Well Flagged US$922m Offering and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Wistron GDR Offering – Well Flagged US$922m Offering, Discount Slightly Wider than Recent Deals
  • Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Wall Street Pounces on Stable Coin Powerhouse, IPO Pops 235%
  • Fusion Cx Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Omada Health IPO: Stayed Private For Longer, Modest Upside Potential

Wistron GDR Offering – Well Flagged US$922m Offering, Discount Slightly Wider than Recent Deals

By Akshat Shah

  • Wistron Corp (3231 TT) is looking to raise up to US$922m in its global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
  • Similar to previous GDR listings, the firm has undergone a long drawn out process prior to launching the deal, having to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Wall Street Pounces on Stable Coin Powerhouse, IPO Pops 235%

By IPO Boutique

  • Circle Internet Group, Inc.  priced 34.0mm shares at $31.00 ($3 Above the Upwardly-Revised $27-$28 range) and opened at $69.00 for a gain of 123% at first trade. 
  • The IPO traded violently higher with a top-tick of $103.75 for a gain of 235%. The stock closed at $83.23 or 168.5% above issue on day one. 
  • Circle is a “one-of-a-kind” industry and one that does not have other public companies to compare to. This could mean that more “fireworks” are in store for the short term.   

Fusion Cx Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Fusion CX Limited (1604907D IN)  (FCL) is looking to raise about US$117m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are Nuvama, IIFL, Motilal.
  • FCL is a customer experience (CX) service provider offering integrated services across voice, email, chat, social media, and messaging.
  • The 2025 Frost & Sullivan Best Practices Report recognized Fusion CX with the “North American Technology Innovation Leadership Recognition” for its technology use and client focus.

Omada Health IPO: Stayed Private For Longer, Modest Upside Potential

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Omada Health is expected to IPO this week. The company’s amended prospectus puts the expected price range per share at $18 to $20, implying a market cap of ~$1.1B.
  • Omada Health is a virtual-first healthcare provider, supporting people with chronic conditions: prediabetes, diabetes (T2D), hypertension, obesity and musculoskeletal.
  • A digital care provider stayed private for longer. Its direct competitor, Livongo Health, went public in 2019 and was acquired by Teladoc Health for ~$18.5B in 2020.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jun 06
0

Most Read: Toyota Industries, Mediatek Inc, Mitsui Matsushima, BYD, Henderson Land Development, Pop Mart International Group L, Virgin Australia Holdings, Makino Milling Machine Co, Tam Jai International, Wistron Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) Proposed Takeover – It Looks Bad, and It’s Worse Than It Looks
  • TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: 22 Changes as Expected
  • [Japan Activism] Murakami Owns ~42% and Company Announces 31.3% Buyback
  • HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$8.1bn of Flows Post Capping (June 2025)
  • Henderson Land (12 HK): Large Passive Flow Coming Up as Shorts Cover
  • FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out
  • Virgin Australia IPO – Not Terribly Exciting, After Significant Items Adjustment
  • MBK Partners Plans to Launch a Tender Offer for Makino Milling Machine
  • Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document
  • Wistron GDR Offering – Well Flagged US$922m Offering, Discount Slightly Wider than Recent Deals

[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) Proposed Takeover – It Looks Bad, and It’s Worse Than It Looks

By Travis Lundy

  • 2wks ago I said “a deal could be announced near-term.” 2wks later we have a deal. But it is a bad deal for TICO minorities. Low price. Minimal transparency. Awful. 
  • But if you dig through deal structure and economics, it is worse than it looks. It takes digging to understand how bad, and they could tell you, but they won’t. 
  • The deal will take time. Things will be in limbo til then. And Toyota Group governance and capital allocation is conditional on this deal getting done, which is also bad.

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: 22 Changes as Expected

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 16 adds and 6 deletes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in June. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF has an AUM of US$12.4bn.
  • The ETF has started trading the stocks and are expected to continue trading for the next 7 trading days. In reality, the process could drag on for some stocks.
  • The index committee appears to have a little discretion in choosing the inclusions with one expected add not being added and one lower ranked stock being added to the index.

[Japan Activism] Murakami Owns ~42% and Company Announces 31.3% Buyback

By Travis Lundy

  • With earnings today (which beat guidance), Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced upbeat guidance for next year, a very large dividend hike from ¥130/share to ¥230/share, and a Very Large Buyback.
  • The buyback is ¥20bn (vs ¥47bn market cap) or 3.5mm shares (31.3%). It starts 2 June. Astute Murakami trackers may recognise the potential pattern here.
  • If the company buys back all 3.5mm shares at just below book, EPS of ¥756 = 12.9% ROE and PER of 7.8x. Even up 30% from here that isn’t super-rich.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$8.1bn of Flows Post Capping (June 2025)

By Brian Freitas

  • The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This leads to large flows.
  • The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$63.55bn (US$8.1bn). There are 12 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
  • The trade size is much bigger than usual due to the inclusion of BYD in the HSTECH Index and due to a change in the FAF methodology for Secondary Listings.

Henderson Land (12 HK): Large Passive Flow Coming Up as Shorts Cover

By Brian Freitas

  • Henderson Land Development (12 HK) will be added to a global sector index at the close on 20 June.
  • Estimated passive buying in Henderson Land Development (12 HK) is 42m shares (US$131.5m; 7.5x ADV).
  • The stock is up over the last 2 months as shorts have covered. Performance is in line with peers and positioning does not appear to be excessive.

FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out

By Brian Freitas

Virgin Australia IPO – Not Terribly Exciting, After Significant Items Adjustment

By Sumeet Singh

  • Bain Capital is looking to raise around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia Holdings (VAH AU).
  • Virgin Australia is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.
  • In this note, we look at the company’s past performance and provide our thoughts on valuations.

MBK Partners Plans to Launch a Tender Offer for Makino Milling Machine

By Douglas Kim

  • MBK Partners plans to launch a tender offer for Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP) at 11,751 yen per share by early December to take over the controlling ownership. 
  • The key long-term investment case for Makino is that it is one of the best companies in the world for making advanced machine tools that are increasingly becoming more sophisticated.
  • One could make the argument that this may not the final offer and some investors may require slightly higher prices in order to make the deal final. 

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document

By Arun George

  • The spread to TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation (3397 JP)’s HK$1.58 offer for Tam Jai International (2217 HK) has risen to 9.7% ahead of the scheme document’s release. 
  • Several readers have asked whether the Tam Jai offer will mirror the Goldlion and Soundwill deal break. The schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.
  • The scheme’s vote risk has undoubtedly increased partly due to the recent 2025 results and deal breaks. This situation warrants a safety-first approach.  

Wistron GDR Offering – Well Flagged US$922m Offering, Discount Slightly Wider than Recent Deals

By Akshat Shah

  • Wistron Corp (3231 TT) is looking to raise up to US$922m in its global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
  • Similar to previous GDR listings, the firm has undergone a long drawn out process prior to launching the deal, having to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Analytics and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free



Jun 06
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Holds Shareholders’ Meeting on June 3rd. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Holds Shareholders’ Meeting on June 3rd.
  • Keisei Electric (9009) | Neither Hidden nor Structurally Mispriced
  • US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors Are Getting Worse
  • Asian Equity: Performance of Our Quant Baskets: Indian MidCaps, Asian Dividend Yields Rule the Roost
  • AMD Just Made a Big Move in AI and Co-Packaged Optics: Here’s What Investors Need to Know!
  • Zscaler’s $675 Million Acquisition Of Red Canary—Here’s How It Could Reshape Cybersecurity & The $5 Billion SOC Race!
  • Eli Lilly’s Bold Move: Can the SiteOne Acquisition Knock Vertex Off Its Pain Drug Throne?
  • Check Point Makes A Bold Bet with Veriti: Can Preemptive Security Reinvent Cyber Risk Management?
  • HAL (NSE: HAL) – Strong Visibility, Undervalued Optionality
  • Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. (3902 JP): Research Update

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Holds Shareholders’ Meeting on June 3rd.

By Patrick Liao

  • There’s nothing TSMC can do about U.S. tariffs but keep working hard and ensure TSMC’s technology remains the best in the world.
  • Recently, the NT dollar has strengthened by 8%, and our operating margin has dropped by over 3% due to exchange rate fluctuations.
  • If our technology could be stolen so easily, TSMC wouldn’t be where it is today.

Keisei Electric (9009) | Neither Hidden nor Structurally Mispriced

By Mark Chadwick

  • Keisei’s OLC stake distorts valuation optics, but is already transparently priced by the market.
  • Activist criticism over “true” ROE reflects accounting semantics, not hidden inefficiency.
  • Core business plus OLC stake offers modest returns; upside exists, but hardly suggestive of chronic long-term underperformance

US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors Are Getting Worse

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Nvidia H20 sales to China were barred last month. Nvidia first mentioned designing a new China-specific chip. Maybe not: it looks very difficult to work around the updated US limits
  • Semiconductor design software was barred last week. Synopsys suspended its guidance. My industry checks suggests that the ban applies to Xiaomi (ie the new smartphone chip) and to Lenovo. 
  • Hanmi Semi stopped shipping TC Bonder to Chinese clients. This is critical to make HBM memory that goes into AI processors.

Asian Equity: Performance of Our Quant Baskets: Indian MidCaps, Asian Dividend Yields Rule the Roost

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • Of our seven quantitative stock baskets, four have operated for more than three months. We measure the performances of these four – Consistent Compounders, SMID Compounders, Dividend Yielders, Indian Mid-Caps.
  • Consistent Compounders, though up since inception, has underperformed MXASJ mildly. SMID Compounders has underperformed sharply. Asian Dividend Yielders has outperformed handsomely and Indian Mid-Caps, by a stupendous margin.
  • We think the Indian mid-cap basket could take a short-term breather. The Dividend Yield basket could outperform, as investors’ preference for yields in uncertain times could continue for now.

AMD Just Made a Big Move in AI and Co-Packaged Optics: Here’s What Investors Need to Know!

By Baptista Research

  • In a strategic move underscoring its ambitions in AI infrastructure and next-gen interconnects, AMD recently acquired Silicon Valley-based Enosemi, a startup specializing in photonic integrated circuits.
  • The acquisition is part of AMD’s broader effort to catch up with competitors like Nvidia, Intel, and Broadcom in the co-packaged optics (CPO) space, a technology increasingly viewed as essential for building high-bandwidth, energy-efficient AI systems.
  • Enosemi, founded in 2023 by semiconductor engineers Ari Novack and Matthew Streshinsky, had previously collaborated with AMD on photonics development and brings with it a small but elite team of PhD-level engineers.

Zscaler’s $675 Million Acquisition Of Red Canary—Here’s How It Could Reshape Cybersecurity & The $5 Billion SOC Race!

By Baptista Research

  • Zscaler, a major force in cloud-based cybersecurity, has officially signed a definitive agreement to acquire Red Canary, a recognized leader in Managed Detection and Response (MDR), in a strategic push to redefine security operations through AI and data integration.
  • The acquisition, expected to close in August 2025, marks Zscaler’s second major deal in the past 18 months after acquiring Avalor, a security data fabric provider.
  • Red Canary brings more than $140 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR), a seasoned MDR go-to-market team, and agentic AI workflows already deployed in production.

Eli Lilly’s Bold Move: Can the SiteOne Acquisition Knock Vertex Off Its Pain Drug Throne?

By Baptista Research

  • Eli Lilly and Company has made a decisive move to expand its footprint in neuroscience and pain management by announcing its acquisition of SiteOne Therapeutics, a clinical-stage biotech focused on developing non-opioid pain treatments.
  • The deal, valued at up to $1 billion including milestones, centers around STC-004, a Phase 2-ready NaV1.8 inhibitor that could become a next generation oral pain medication.
  • The acquisition underscores Lilly’s broader ambition to lead in addiction-free, chronic pain solutions at a time when regulatory and societal pressures around opioid misuse continue to rise.

Check Point Makes A Bold Bet with Veriti: Can Preemptive Security Reinvent Cyber Risk Management?

By Baptista Research

  • In a strategic move that signals a shift toward automated, prevention-first cybersecurity, Check Point Software Technologies has announced its acquisition of Veriti Cybersecurity, a pioneering Israeli startup specializing in preemptive threat exposure management.
  • The transaction, valued at over $100 million, is expected to close by the end of Q2 2025 and marks the first major acquisition under new CEO Nadav Zafrir.
  • The deal comes at a time when Check Point is pushing hard on its hybrid mesh architecture vision and doubling down on its Infinity Platform to unify security across endpoints, cloud, and networks.

HAL (NSE: HAL) – Strong Visibility, Undervalued Optionality

By Rahul Jain

  • Over FY22–FY25, HAL’s revenue grew at a CAGR of ~8%, while PAT rose at ~15% CAGR, with the order book doubling to ₹1.89 lakh Cr, providing LT visibility.
  • India’s defence indigenization drive, large platform rollouts (LCA Mk1A, LUH, AMCA, engines), positions HAL to address a Rs3–4 lakh Cr opportunity over the next 5–10 years, including exports.
  • Despite strong earnings growth, zero debt, and long-term JV upside (e.g., Safran engine), HAL trades at a P/E of ~33–38×, below many peers, indicating room for re-rating.

Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. (3902 JP): Research Update

By Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK

  • Medical Data Vision [MDV] reported FY25 Q1 (Dec year-end) results with sales coming in largely in line with the firm’s guidance while operating profit [OP] was higher than expected.
  • The firm produced Q1 gross profit [GP] of1,085mil (+3.8% YoY) and OP of ¥17mil (-67.6% YoY) on sales of ¥1,532mil (+10.4% YoY).
  • Ther firm’s profit targets remain unchanged, guiding for FY25 OP of ¥2,600mil and RP of ¥2,500mil.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free