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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Orient Cement, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Exxon Mobil, Boss Energy, Chevron Corp, Energy Absolute, Goliath Resources , Natural Gas, Copper, Serica Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Event Driven: Arbitrage Opportunity in Orient Cement Open Offer by Ambuja
  • Demand Uncertainty To Influence Rubber Markets In Q1 2025
  • [Earnings Review] Exxon Beat Q3 Earnings Expectations with Higher Chemical Margins and Cost Savings
  • Boss Energy vs The Shorters… Who wins?
  • [Earnings Review] Chevron Surpasses Expectations on Higher Output and Improved Efficiency
  • Energy Absolute: Energy Limited
  • Goliath Resources – Zacks SCR Update of Coverage of Goliath Resources Ltd
  • Cold Front in the US Dominates Natgas Prices // Chinese Soybean Data and the Fade of Its Economy
  • Zambia’s Copper Renaissance
  • Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Compressor at Triton Back on Line


Event Driven: Arbitrage Opportunity in Orient Cement Open Offer by Ambuja

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • In Oct-24, Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN) acquired 46.8% stake in Orient Cement (ORCMNT IN) at Rs. 396 per share.
  • Now Orient cement is trading at 20% discount to open offer price.
  • This process can take approx. 2 months and can generate ~10-15% risk adjusted return by Jan-25.

Demand Uncertainty To Influence Rubber Markets In Q1 2025

By Arusha Das

  • Short term supply shortage 
  • US and EU demand uncertain
  • Shipping cost spike in short term ahead of Trump’s tariff drive

[Earnings Review] Exxon Beat Q3 Earnings Expectations with Higher Chemical Margins and Cost Savings

By Suhas Reddy

  • Exxon Mobil’s Q3 revenue fell by 0.8% YoY and net profit decreased by 5.1%. Revenue missed estimates by 4.2% but EPS exceeded expectations by 2.3%.
  • Exxon Mobil’s Q3 upstream production rose by 24% YoY to 4.6 mboepd, driven by strong output in Guyana and the Permian basin and the acquisition of Pioneer.
  • Exxon attributed its better-than-expected earnings in bottom-of-cycle conditions to structural cost savings, reduced expenses, high-return investments, and selective divestments.

Boss Energy vs The Shorters… Who wins?

By Money of Mine

  • Project quickly shut down by company, but still moving forward
  • Concerns about Chinese buying in Australia
  • Waiting on cost release for project, anticipating higher costs due to increase in uranium price

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


[Earnings Review] Chevron Surpasses Expectations on Higher Output and Improved Efficiency

By Suhas Reddy

  • Chevron’s Q3 revenue declined 6.3% YoY, while its net profit dropped 31.2%. Yet it beat its revenue and EPS estimates by 3.7% and 3.6%, respectively.  
  • Chevron achieved a record Q3 output of 3.36 mboepd, up 7% YoY, driven by Permian growth. Full-year production growth is expected near the top of its 4-7% guidance.
  • Chevron returned USD 4.7 billion in buybacks and USD 2.9 billion in dividends. Q4 is expected to see USD 1 billion in dividends and USD 4–4.75 billion in buybacks.

Energy Absolute: Energy Limited

By Warut Promboon

  • EA’s Q3 results on 14-November was disappointing as expected on the declining EBITDA.
  • Criat’s iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit (iRap) still indicates the implied international credit rating of “B+” which gives us relative comfort for the credit.
  • EA’s story rests on the usage of its network to extend debt maturity and sell assets, and not so much on cashflow which may be generated in the near term. 

Goliath Resources – Zacks SCR Update of Coverage of Goliath Resources Ltd

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Goliath Resources provides investors exposure to gold-silver-copper resource exploration and leverage to an increasing in-ground inventory with discovery upside during a gold price market that reached new all-time highs.
  • Downside limited by expected significant positive news flow into 2025.
  • The Company’s 2024 exploration program was expanded to 38,125 m based on strong financial support.

Cold Front in the US Dominates Natgas Prices // Chinese Soybean Data and the Fade of Its Economy

By The Commodity Report

  • Cold Front in the US dominates Natgas Prices During next week another cold front will arrive in the upper part of the US.
  • The temperature anomaly is quite negative – accordingly, natgas prices are currently on the rise.
  • As seasonally remain bearish and these temperature anomalies occur often during the winter months, we’ll keep our eye on short opportunities in the market.

Zambia’s Copper Renaissance

By Massif Capital Research

  • Copper is central to global infrastructure and the transition to renewable energy.
  • Zambia, a key player in the Central African Copperbelt, holds immense promise for copper investors, boasting some of the world’s richest geological assets.
  • This white paper explores Zambia’s copper mining landscape, highlighting the interplay of global demand, supply challenges, and Zambia’s evolving mining ecosystem.

Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Compressor at Triton Back on Line

By Auctus Advisors

  • The first compressor at Triton has been repaired and the platform is expected to be back online this week.
  • This represents a few weeks’ delay but the restart will boost production materially.
  • With the recent addition of the B6 well (>5 mboe/d net), total production was already over 50 mboe/d on 2 October.

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Daily Brief Utilities: NTPC Green Energy Ltd, Southwest Gas and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • NTPC Green IPO Trading – Lacklustre Demand, Similar to Recent Listings
  • Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX) – Monday, Aug 26, 2024


NTPC Green IPO Trading – Lacklustre Demand, Similar to Recent Listings

By Clarence Chu

  • NTPC Green Energy Ltd (2214556D IN) raised around US$1.2bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • NTPC Green Energy Limited (NGEL) is a renewable energy public sector enterprise and a wholly owned subsidiary of NTPC Limited, a Maharatna central public sector enterprise (PSU).
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX) – Monday, Aug 26, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Southwest Energy Corporation is focusing on natural gas distribution utilities, having sold its pipeline and storage business
  • The company holds a majority stake in Centuri Holdings, an infrastructure construction services provider
  • Southwest Energy is expected to pay off debt, initiate buybacks or increase dividends, and has rate case filings in multiple states that could lead to substantial rate base growth

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Sanrio, FineToday Holdings Co Ltd, PG Electroplast, Com7 , Lotte Chilsung Beverage Co, China Education Group, Taste Gourmet and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Sanrio (8136 JP) Large Secondary Offering – Don’t Say Hello Kitty! Too Soon
  • Sanrio (8136 JP) Placement: Potential Global Index Migration Leads to Interesting Dynamics
  • Sanrio (8136 JP): A US$840 Million Secondary Offering
  • Sanrio Placement – Opportunistic >US$800m Selling at All-Time Highs
  • FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
  • 2025 High Conviction Idea: PG Electroplast
  • SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Changes Coming Up in December
  • Lotte Chilsung Beverage – Its Land in Seochogu, Seoul Is More Than 3x Its Market Cap
  • China Education Group (839 HK): What’s up After the Big Bath?
  • Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): Resilient H1 FY25: Cash Now 35% of Market Cap


Sanrio (8136 JP) Large Secondary Offering – Don’t Say Hello Kitty! Too Soon

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Sanrio (8136 JP) announced a large secondary offering where banks would sell down shares and the Tsuji family would sell a few shares at the margin. 
  • The stock has been on a rocket for two years. It’s expensive. Growth slows next year. Will this cause momentum to turn? Maybe. The offering is 38% of Max RWF.
  • I think one could give this a pass, and even sell it if it opens down small. 

Sanrio (8136 JP) Placement: Potential Global Index Migration Leads to Interesting Dynamics

By Brian Freitas

  • Overnight, Sanrio (8136 JP) announced a placement of 25.87m shares to unwind crossholdings and improve corporate value. There is an overallotment option for another 3.88m shares.
  • There will be limited passive buying in the short-term and the shares offered is a large percentage of real float of the stock.
  • However, Sanrio (8136 JP) is the highest ranked non-constituent stock in a global index universe and a drop in the stock price could be used to accumulate positions.

Sanrio (8136 JP): A US$840 Million Secondary Offering

By Arun George

  • Sanrio (8136 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 25.9  million shares (29.8 million including overallotment), worth around US$840 million (US$970 million including overallotment). 
  • Sanrio’s goal with the secondary offering is (i) to reduce cross-shareholdings and (ii) to expand and diversify the shareholder base, which should further enhance liquidity.
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 10 and 13 December (likely 10 December).

Sanrio Placement – Opportunistic >US$800m Selling at All-Time Highs

By Clarence Chu

  • A group of domestic financial institutions and the firm’s executives are looking to raise US$840m from trimming their stakes in Sanrio (8136 JP).
  • While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


2025 High Conviction Idea: PG Electroplast

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • PG Electroplast (PGEL IN) is India’s 2nd largest ODM player for washing machines. It also serve as ODM and OEM for leading brands in Room ACs, electronics, air coolers etc.
  • Company is guiding for 76% of topline growth as well as 250Cr of PAT for FY25, out of which 103Cr is already delivered. Also company revised guidance upwards in Q2. 
  • With 1500Cr of QIP in plan, company is looking for inorganic growth opportunities to make stronger growth going forward. 

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Changes Coming Up in December

By Brian Freitas

  • With 3 trading days left in the review period, we forecast 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
  • Passive trackers will need to buy between 1.2-3.6 days of ADV on the inclusions and sell between 0.3-3.1 days of ADV on the deletions.
  • The forecast adds have continued to outperform the forecast deletes and there could be more movement in stocks with relatively high ADV to trade.

Lotte Chilsung Beverage – Its Land in Seochogu, Seoul Is More Than 3x Its Market Cap

By Douglas Kim

  • Lotte Chilsung Beverage’s land in Seochogu, Seoul is estimated to be worth more than 3x its market cap. 
  • In the past several weeks, there have been increasing concerns about the overall debt pressures at the Lotte Group.
  • Lotte Group may be considering on selling some of its assets including Lotte Rental, Lotte Capital, and Lotte Chilsung Beverage’s Seochogu land. 

China Education Group (839 HK): What’s up After the Big Bath?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Although the reported FY24 net profit plunged 69.7% due to intangible impairments, China Education Group (839 HK)‘s adjusted net profit grew by 3.3% and adjusted EBITDA by 12.3%.
  • Based on adjusted net profit, its payout ratio is flat at 40%, implying an 8% dividend yield. This suggests underlying operations are decent and demonstrate confidence in the outlook.
  • Both tuition and enrollment are expected to sustain growth in FY25, meaning that a consensus forecast of 9% net profit is achievable. Its 4.5x PER does not appear stretched.

Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): Resilient H1 FY25: Cash Now 35% of Market Cap

By Sameer Taneja

  • Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) reported H1 FY25 results of Revenues/Pat 19% YoY/-6%YoY. Profits disappointed slightly as the company was unable to achieve the desired restaurant table turns. 
  • Cash continues to pile on the balance sheet, with 185 mn HKD of net cash representing 35% of market capitalization. The company paid a 6-cent semi-annual dividend.
  • The stock trades at a 5.2x PE for FY25, has a 10% dividend yield, and plans to grow at least 15% CAGR.  

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Daily Brief Health Care: Centene Corp, Cigna Group, Elevance Health , Gossamer Bio Inc, Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group , Kaken Pharmaceutical, Medicus Pharma , Molina Healthcare and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Centene Corporation: Operational Efficiency & AI Utilization Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers
  • Cigna Corporation: Specialty Market Position & Biosimilars Strategy Driving Our Bullishness! – Major Drivers
  • Elevance Health: Can Its Carelon Services Expansion & Integration Give Them A Competitive Advantage? – Major Drivers
  • Gossamer Bio Inc (GOSS) – Monday, Aug 26, 2024
  • Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692.HK) – Successful Business Transformation Opens up Valuation Upside
  • Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): One-Off Payment Boosts H1FY25 Revenue; Headed for Another Bleak H2
  • Medicus Pharma Ltd – The Stock of Medicus Pharma Has Begun Trading on Nasdaq Under the Ticker MDCX
  • Molina Healthcare Inc.: These Are The 6 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond! – Major Drivers


Centene Corporation: Operational Efficiency & AI Utilization Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Centene Corporation has reported its third-quarter financial results for 2024, showcasing a nuanced performance that reflects both strengths and ongoing challenges within its operations.
  • The company achieved an adjusted diluted EPS of $1.62, which exceeded prior expectations.
  • This outperformance was partly due to tax benefits projected for later in the year being realized earlier, as well as some accelerated income tax benefits.

Cigna Corporation: Specialty Market Position & Biosimilars Strategy Driving Our Bullishness! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cigna Group’s third-quarter 2024 earnings was decent and revealed shareholders’ net income of $739 million or $2.63 per share for the quarter.
  • Notably, this figure was affected by a significant non-cash after-tax net realized investment loss of $1 billion related to VillageMD, resulting in a write-down of assets and an impairment charge.
  • This has been excluded from adjusted operating income and earnings per share.

Elevance Health: Can Its Carelon Services Expansion & Integration Give Them A Competitive Advantage? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Elevance Health’s third-quarter earnings reveal a mixed performance influenced by elevated medical costs, particularly in the Medicaid sector.
  • The adjusted diluted earnings per share came in at $8.37, slightly below the company’s expectations, attributed primarily to elevated medical costs in the Medicaid business.
  • Consequently, Elevance Health has revised its full-year guidance downward to an adjusted EPS of approximately $33.

Gossamer Bio Inc (GOSS) – Monday, Aug 26, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Gossamer Bio is developing seralutinib for PAH in Phase 3 clinical trials
  • Recent changes in C-suite, insider stock purchases, and partnerships with pharmaceutical companies
  • Company has ample cash and near-term catalysts for high upside potential in treating PAH, a serious hemodynamic disorder.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692.HK) – Successful Business Transformation Opens up Valuation Upside

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Hansoh’s 24H1 results beat the expectations. Product revenue (excluding BD cooperation revenue) would achieve double-digit growth in 2024 full year, among which revenue of Ameile would maintain 20%+ YoY growth.
  • Total product revenue would be about RMB14-14.5 billion in the future. Based on P/S of 5, market value is RMB70-72.5 billion, which is the lower end of market value range.
  • There is still certain gap in terms of R&D capability/globalization outlook between Hansoh and those leading biotech in China. So, we think valuation of Hansoh would be lower than them.

Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): One-Off Payment Boosts H1FY25 Revenue; Headed for Another Bleak H2

By Tina Banerjee

  • Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP) reported 42% YoY jump in revenue during H1FY25 on one-time upfront payment, while operating profit also witnessed hefty growth of 255% YoY.
  • Top selling products are impacted by NHI drug price revision and increasing competition. The company has reiterated FY25 guidance. Profitability is expected to deteriorate sequentially in H2.
  • The respite from one time receipt will not compensate for the revenue loss from the negative impact from NHI drug price revision and generic competition for top selling products.

Medicus Pharma Ltd – The Stock of Medicus Pharma Has Begun Trading on Nasdaq Under the Ticker MDCX

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Medicus Pharma Ltd. (TSXV:MDCX) is focused on acquiring or partnering with life-science companies that are developing novel therapeutics for unmet healthcare needs that are already in the clinical trial stage.
  • Management plans fast-track these specific therapies through FDA clinical trials toward commercialization.
  • The company’s first acquisition was SkinJect, which has a novel, patented transdermal patch for the treatment of BCC.

Molina Healthcare Inc.: These Are The 6 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Molina Healthcare’s recent earnings report for the third quarter of 2024 reflects a mixed performance with certain financial achievements offset by ongoing challenges.
  • The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $6.01, aligning with expectations, on $9.7 billion of premium revenue.
  • Despite facing upward pressure on medical costs, resulting in a consolidated medical care ratio (MCR) of 89.2%, Molina Healthcare maintained a robust adjusted pre-tax margin of 4.5% (3.4% after tax), demonstrating a balanced business portfolio.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Keisei Electric Railway Co, S.F. Holding, MNC Solution, Aegis Vopak Terminals Ltd, ISDN Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • [JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) – Murakami Stake Causes Pop But the Oppty Is Still Unconvincing
  • Oriental Land ToSTNeT-3 Buyback From Keisei (9009) – It’s In the Plan And Looks Better Than It Is
  • SF Holdings A/H Trading – Strong Demand but Is Probably Close to Fair Value
  • MNC Solutions Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Defensively, Would Ideally like a Further Discount
  • Aegis Vopak Terminals Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Company Spotlight: ISDN


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) – Murakami Stake Causes Pop But the Oppty Is Still Unconvincing

By Travis Lundy

  • 13mos ago, activist investor Palliser Capital spoke at a conference about the value offered by Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) due to its large stake in Oriental Land (4661). 
  • Keisei outperformed OLC by 30% over 3.5mos. Then it fell all the way back, and more, over the next five months. Asset sale, buyback, AGM proposals. Meh. 
  • Nov 25th, Toyo Keizai wrote activist Murakami-san had acquired stakes of <5% in Keikyu Corp (9006 JP) and <1% in Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP). Shares in both jumped.

Oriental Land ToSTNeT-3 Buyback From Keisei (9009) – It’s In the Plan And Looks Better Than It Is

By Travis Lundy

  • In October 2023 and then in early 2024, activist Palliser Capital demanded that Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) sell down its stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP) to sub-15%.
  • Keisei in March sold 1% of OLC but in doing so, rejected the concept of removing equity affiliate status. They could go to a level just >15%, or just >20%. 
  • Today, OLC announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback of 18mm shares – the total for the 2yrs to Mar-26 announced (p19) in April. Keisei will sell and will stay above 20%. 

SF Holdings A/H Trading – Strong Demand but Is Probably Close to Fair Value

By Sumeet Singh

  • S.F. Holding (002352 CH), China’s largest express delivery company, raised around US$860m in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
  • SFH is the largest integrated express logistics service provider in China and the fourth largest in the world. It has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2017.
  • We have covered the company and deal background in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

MNC Solutions Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Defensively, Would Ideally like a Further Discount

By Clarence Chu

  • MNC Solution (MNC KS) is looking to raise US$200m in its Korea IPO.
  • MNC Solutions (MNC) supplies high-precision control components for maritime and aviation weaponry, and travel devices for stabilization to the defense industry.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation.

Aegis Vopak Terminals Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Aegis Vopak Terminals Ltd (1902844D IN) is looking to raise upto US$415m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI, IIFL, Jefferies, HDFC and BNP Paribas.
  • It is a joint-venture between Aegis Logistics, India’s largest third-party LPG handler and Vopak India BV, part of Royal Vopak, one of world’s leading tank storage companies, according to CRISIL.
  • AVTL was the largest Indian third-party owner and operator of tank storage terminals for LPG,  liquid products in terms of storage capacity, as of June 30, 2024, as per CRISIL.

Company Spotlight: ISDN

By Geoff Howie

Company Spotlight: ISDN

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Daily Brief Financials: Hyundai Motor Securities, DigiCo REIT, Bitcoin, Nikkei 225, Old Republic Intl, Hanover Insurance Group, Lincoln National, Cna Financial, Chubb , China Vanke and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Hyundai Motor Securities Announces a Rights Offering Involving a 49% Shares Dilution
  • DigiCo REIT (DGT AU) IPO: Offering Details & Index Implications
  • Crypto Crisp: More Friendly, Still Overbought
  • EQD | Nikkei 225 : State Of The Odds (WEEKLY)
  • Old Republic International Corporation: Will Its Expansion of Specialty Underwriting Bring A Shift In The Competitive Dynamics? – Major Drivers
  • The Hanover Insurance Group: How Is The Management Tackling The Financial Strain from Expense Management
  • Lincoln National Corporation: Dealing With Strategic Capital Deployment & 4 Other Critical Challenges! – Major Drivers
  • CNA Financial Corporation: An Analysis Into Its Growth in Gross Written Premiums & Profitable Segments & Other Major Drivers
  • Chubb Limited: Geographic Diversification As A Vital Tool For Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia – November 26, 2024


Hyundai Motor Securities Announces a Rights Offering Involving a 49% Shares Dilution

By Douglas Kim

  • Hyundai Motors Securities announced a rights offering worth nearly 200 billion won involving a 49% shares dilution. 
  • The amount of shares dilution is excessive which is likely to result in a share price weakness in Hyundai Motor Securities in the coming weeks.
  • The expected rights offering price for now is 6,640 won per share which is 24.5% discount to the closing price on 26 November.

DigiCo REIT (DGT AU) IPO: Offering Details & Index Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • DigiCo REIT (DIGICO AU) is looking to raise nearly A$2bn in its IPO by selling 399.1m shares at A$5/share. Stock is expected to list on the ASX on 12 December.
  • HMC Capital (HMC AU) will own 18.2% of DigiCo REIT (DIGICO AU) after the IPO while IPO investors will own 72.5% of the company.
  • Subject to DigiCo REIT being an eligible stapled security, we expect the stock to be included in global and local indices between March and June mopping up 11.7% of float.

Crypto Crisp: More Friendly, Still Overbought

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Last Thursday, I shared my conviction in our Telegram crypto chat:
  • My two cents: We touch $100,000 (or very close) but we do not comfortably get on the other side.
  • This makes all the leverage and open interest (and retail euphoria) turn against us.
  • After witnessing the Bitcoin price face repeated rejections since then, I am even more confident in this view.

EQD | Nikkei 225 : State Of The Odds (WEEKLY)

By Nico Rosti

  • The Nikkei 225‘s trend is uncertain at the moment: the new N225 WEEKLY QUANTCHART presented here (freely accessible 24/7 clicking here) shows us the current MRM models’ support and resistance.
  • In the last few months the index stalled, currently it is stuck in a range roughly between 37650 and 40250, and it has closed down for 2 consecutive weeks (CC=-2).
  • At the moment we expect the index to fall maybe another week (closing this week down) and then a LONG reversal the following week.

Old Republic International Corporation: Will Its Expansion of Specialty Underwriting Bring A Shift In The Competitive Dynamics? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Old Republic International Corporation reported its third-quarter 2024 earnings, revealing mixed results influenced by a range of market factors.
  • The company’s consolidated pretax operating income declined to $229 million, down from $251 million in the prior year.
  • Similarly, the consolidated combined ratio rose to 95% from last year’s 92%, indicating a deterioration in underwriting performance.

The Hanover Insurance Group: How Is The Management Tackling The Financial Strain from Expense Management

By Baptista Research

  • The Hanover Insurance Group’s recent financial results for the third quarter show a complex but generally positive picture of the company’s performance.
  • The firm reported an operating income of $3.05 per diluted share, with an operating return on equity of 14.4%.
  • This performance reflects improvements driven by strategic initiatives such as enhanced pricing, adjustments in insurance value, and targeted underwriting actions.

Lincoln National Corporation: Dealing With Strategic Capital Deployment & 4 Other Critical Challenges! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lincoln National Corporation delivered a strong performance in the third quarter of 2024, showcasing its highest quarterly adjusted operating income in over two years.
  • This reflects positive momentum across all its business lines, driven by strategic initiatives focused on capital foundation, operating model optimization, and profitable growth.
  • The company has made considerable progress in aligning its operations with these strategic goals, although it acknowledges that the transformations required are part of a multiyear journey.

CNA Financial Corporation: An Analysis Into Its Growth in Gross Written Premiums & Profitable Segments & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CNA Financial Corporation reported strong financial performance in the third quarter, reflecting robust growth in core income and investment results, as well as strong underwriting performance.
  • The core income for the quarter was $293 million, driven by a $73 million increase in net investment income to $626 million pre-tax.
  • This surge in investment income was propelled by the positive performance of CNA’s alternatives portfolio and the growth of its fixed-income investments, which benefitted from higher book yields and a larger asset base.

Chubb Limited: Geographic Diversification As A Vital Tool For Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Chubb Limited delivered a robust third quarter of 2024, posting significant growth in its Property and Casualty (P&C) underwriting, investment income, and life insurance segments.
  • Core operating income increased by 14.3% year-over-year to $2.3 billion, contributing to a 16.9% rise in net income.
  • The global P&C premium revenue grew by 7.6%, translating to an 8.5% increase in constant currency, reflecting strong performance across its diversified international markets and business segments.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia – November 26, 2024

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Treasuries surged yesterday, with yields falling 10-13 bps across the curve after a strong auction of 2Y notes and in the wake of US President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent as the next Treasury Secretary.
  • Mr Bessent is expected to implement Mr Trump’s tax cuts, while reducing the budget deficit and boosting GDP growth through deregulation and other pro-growth policies.
  • The yield on the 2Y UST fell 10 bps to 4.27%, while that on the 10Y UST declined 13 bps to 4.28%. 

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Daily Brief Private Markets: Secai Marche adds US$1.6M to Series A round to double down on Southeast Asia | e27 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

  • Secai Marche adds US$1.6M to Series A round to double down on Southeast Asia | e27


Secai Marche adds US$1.6M to Series A round to double down on Southeast Asia | e27

By e27

  • Secai Marche, a farm-to-table startup connecting farmers with restaurants and retailers in Southeast Asia, has secured an additional JPY 250 million (US$1.6 million) in its Series A funding round.
  • The round includes equity financing from Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Venture Capital (MSIVC) and debt financing from The Shizuoka Bank and The Hokkoku Bank.
  • This follows a US$3.5 million Series A round of investment from investors, including Beyond Next Ventures, Spiral Ventures Asia, Mitsubishi UFJ Capital, Future Food Fund, Tsuneishi Shoji, Fukuoka Sonoriku, and Foodison co-CEO Toru Yamamoto, in August this year.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks Climb Amid Treasury Pick Optimism and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Climb Amid Treasury Pick Optimism
  • Japan Morning Connection: Time to Revisit the Most Bungled Conglomerate Left Standing?
  • Thematic Report : India Inc Q2FY25 Earnings Review and Highlights
  • Maharashtra Elections Inject Optimism into Indian Markets
  • The Stocks to Own in China – Vol. 34
  • Thematic Report: Bets Beyond the Giants, How Institutional Investors Are Betting on Smaller Stocks
  • The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 47
  • Higher Exchanges Recap – Adapting to Change with AYR Interim CEO Steven M. Cohen


Ohayo Japan | Stocks Climb Amid Treasury Pick Optimism

By Mark Chadwick

  • Markets rallied as traders welcomed Donald Trump’s nomination of hedge fund veteran Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary
  • Elliott Management, an activist shareholder, has reportedly sold its stake in DNP
  • Fast Retailing reaffirms its commitment to China, despite global decoupling trends.

Japan Morning Connection: Time to Revisit the Most Bungled Conglomerate Left Standing?

By Andrew Jackson

  • Tech strong despite market rotating out of NVDA, with EV related gaining on Cali plan.
  • Home builders surge on Bessent’s nomination; expect a strong follow through for JP related plays.
  • Activists are on the hunt in Japan – how long before someone starts building a stake in Kyocera?

Thematic Report : India Inc Q2FY25 Earnings Review and Highlights

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Overall, the outlook for corporate earnings in India remains challenging, with downward revisions in key financial metrics and sectors. 
  • The weak performance in Q2 highlights the impact of various economic factors on company profits. Some positive signs such as expected govt spending & improved rural demand, could boost H1FY25
  • The current valuation of the Nifty and broader market suggests that there may be limited upside potential in the near term.

Maharashtra Elections Inject Optimism into Indian Markets

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The NDA’s landslide victory in Maharashtra has ushered in a period of political stability, boosting market sentiment and investor confidence. This will increase government spending on infrastructure & rural development.
  • Analysts predict a modest recovery in corporate earnings in the second half of the fiscal year, potentially triggering a “mini risk-on rally”. 
  • While women-centric welfare schemes contributed to the NDA’s success, concerns arise regarding their potential strain on state finances. 

The Stocks to Own in China – Vol. 34

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

  • We highlight 10 stocks in China that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
  • Portfolio changes: Three stocks remain, seven new join the fray
  • Since inception, it has gained 172% versus the CSI 300 Index’s return of 62%

Thematic Report: Bets Beyond the Giants, How Institutional Investors Are Betting on Smaller Stocks

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Overall, the declining HHI across various investor categories in the Indian securities market indicates a positive trend towards diversification and broader exposure. 
  • This shift towards mid- and small-cap stocks suggests that investors are seeking growth opportunities amidst high market valuations. 
  • The net outflows from FPIs, particularly concentrated in the top 100 stocks, indicate a shift in investment focus towards smaller companies. While sectoral analysis reveals disparities in concentration.

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 47

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

  • We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
  • Portfolio changes: Seven stocks remain, seven new join the fray
  • Since inception, it has gained 126% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 34%

Higher Exchanges Recap – Adapting to Change with AYR Interim CEO Steven M. Cohen

By Water Tower Research

  • Higher Exchanges is a weekly cannabis-investing conversation hosted by WTR’s Head of Cannabis, Jesse Redmond, and Morgan Paxhia, co- founder of Poseidon.
  • Those interested can listen to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or X Spaces.
  • This week’s podcast began with an analysis of Green Thumb Industries’ (CSE: GTII, OTCQX: GTBIF) investment and transformation of Agrify (NASDAQ: AGFY). 

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) – Huge Offering Is Smaller Now; Reward/Risk Skews Upwards and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) – Huge Offering Is Smaller Now; Reward/Risk Skews Upwards
  • Keisei Electric Jumps 14% on Reports of Murakami Stake
  • Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Big Shift in Divs Leads to Last Minute Changes
  • GQG Remains Bullish on Adani Despite US Indictment
  • Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Double Inclusion for Yang Ming Marine (2609 TT)
  • SG Fleet (SGF AU): Pacific Equity Partners’ Indicative Offer at A$3.50
  • Figuring Out the Right Entry Point to Go Outright Short on Korea Zinc
  • EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly
  • Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Dec 24:  TDIV Exp ADD/DEL In the Money; Strong Trade Performance
  • SG Fleet (SGF AU): PEP’s A$3.50/Share NBIO


Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) – Huge Offering Is Smaller Now; Reward/Risk Skews Upwards

By Travis Lundy

  • On 13 November, Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) announced an equity offering to raise capital for capex expenditures over the next several years. It is significantly dilutive.
  • The shares responded by falling 23% to 8-months lows of ¥1,850 last Thursday and Friday. That puts the stock at the same forward PER post-offering as it was pre-offering. 
  • That’s probably not an awful place to own now that the stock will have been slightly de-risked/de-levered. 

Keisei Electric Jumps 14% on Reports of Murakami Stake

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) rose 14% after reports that a fund linked to activist investor Murakami bought a stake, while Oriental Land also gained 2.9% in a volatile market.
  • Down 50% since February 2024, Keisei Electric seems to have limited downside risks. We believe its valuation could increase if Murakami’s stake leads to activism.
  • The long Keisei Electric, short Oriental Land (4661 JP) trade could work well too, especially if Murakami’s activism and the risks to Oriental Land’s guidance materialize.

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Big Shift in Divs Leads to Last Minute Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • Using data from the close on 25 November, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
  • There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 17.3% and a one-way trade of TWD 60.6bn (US$1.86bn).
  • On average, the forecast adds have started to outperform the forecast deletes. Positioning should continue in stocks that have large flow/impact or have recently joined the list of forecast adds/deletes.

GQG Remains Bullish on Adani Despite US Indictment

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • GQG acknowledges the seriousness of the charges, but maintains its confidence in the Adani Group companies.
  • GQG sees a distinction between the allegations against the individuals and the operational strength of the businesses.
  • The firm believes that the fundamentals of the companies remain strong. GQG will continue to monitor the situation closely.

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Double Inclusion for Yang Ming Marine (2609 TT)

By Brian Freitas


SG Fleet (SGF AU): Pacific Equity Partners’ Indicative Offer at A$3.50

By Arun George

  • Sg Fleet (SGF AU) confirmed it received a non-binding indicative proposal from Pacific Equity Partners at A$3.50 per share, a 31.1% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • In consultation with Bluefin Investments, the largest shareholder, PEP has been granted exclusive due diligence access, which ends on November 29.
  • The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and represents an all-time high. The talks are in the final stages, as due diligence ends at the end of the week.

Figuring Out the Right Entry Point to Go Outright Short on Korea Zinc

By Sanghyun Park

  • The 5% voting gap between Choi and MBK leaves NPS and sideline minority players as key swing factors, with NPS’s stake potentially closing the gap for Choi.
  • If NPS sold half its stake in the tenders, it’s down to 4%, not enough to close the gap, likely giving MBK the win and triggering a post-meeting price drop.
  • The key to our outright short is NPS’s January 10 disclosure, with market chatter suggesting NPS has likely sold about half its holdings in the two tenders.

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly

By John Ley

  • Implied vols were lower across all sectors on the week with option volumes peaking on Friday.
  • Post-Earnings vol crush helped push vols lower for key names.
  • Tencent stands out with low implied vols over the past year, high liquidity and is trading almost 17% below its 52 week high.

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Dec 24:  TDIV Exp ADD/DEL In the Money; Strong Trade Performance

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
  • Today is the base date for the final ranks for the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs/DELs and their flow implications for the TDIV index which will also have a rebalance event in December.

SG Fleet (SGF AU): PEP’s A$3.50/Share NBIO

By David Blennerhassett

  • SG Fleet (SGF AU), an Aussie provider of fleet leasing services, has announced a A$3.50/share non-binding and indicative proposal from Sydney PE outfit Pacific Equity Partners (PEP). 
  • SGF’s board, in consultation with South Africa’s Super Group (SPG SJ), its largest shareholder, has granted PEP exclusive due diligence. 
  • A$3.50/Share is a 31% premium to undisturbed. The exclusivity period expires on the 29th November 2024. That short timeframe suggests a firm Offer is imminent. 

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Daily Brief ESG: Keppel: Strategic Transformation to Asset Manager (Report 3) and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Keppel: Strategic Transformation to Asset Manager (Report 3)
  • Concurrent Directorship Issue Calls into Question Effectiveness of Nominating Committee


Keppel: Strategic Transformation to Asset Manager (Report 3)

By Tan Yee Peng

  • This is the third report issued by CML on Keppel’s transformation to a global asset manager per its Vision 2030.
  • CML has earlier issued two reports on this subject. The first examines the lack of disclosure by Keppel on critical information and data pertaining to its asset management business.
  • This is disappointing as Keppel is almost halfway to its fund under management (‘FUM”) target of S$200bn, and we include peers which are similar in size.

Concurrent Directorship Issue Calls into Question Effectiveness of Nominating Committee

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The limit is to serve on the boards of two companies concurrently in order to preview the agenda for the monthly board meetings in advance.
  • There may be challenges to the effectiveness of the nominating committee of a company that nominates a candidate to serve on the board of directors of three or more companies.
  • With the growing demand for female outside board members, it’s hoped that active investment managers will pay attention to the issue of concurrent board membership and make a clear statement.

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