Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: NIFTY Index, Uco Bank, Road King Infrastructure, Sidekick Token, Veritas Finance Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY50 Index Outlook Amid Ongoing Rebalance Review
  • UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. IOB (IOB IN): Catch-Up Potential
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Sidekick: Building the LiveFi Infrastructure for Real-Time Trading
  • Veritas Finance Pre-IPO: Fast Growing Lender to the Un/Under-Banked


NIFTY50 Index Outlook Amid Ongoing Rebalance Review

By Nico Rosti

  • As outlined by Brian Freitas , the NIFTY Index ‘s September rebalance ends July 31st, the announcement of the changes will take place end August and implemented on September 29th.
  • The index has been pulling back for 3 weeks, it’s oversold according to our model, 75% probability of reversing up this week.
  • Lower support limit would be 24319, while a rally could take the index to 25642 across a couple of weeks. The rally won’t last more than 2 weeks probably.

UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. IOB (IOB IN): Catch-Up Potential

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: The Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN) vs. UCO Bank (UCO IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
  • Highlights: Statistical mean reversion suggests short-term outperformance of UCO Bank (UCO IN), also supported by more attractive valuations.
  • Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Road King Infrastructure, Continuum Green, Softbank Group
  • UST yields declined for a second straight day yesterday. There were no major macro catalysts, albeit the move was in line with gains across most European government bonds.
  • The UST curve bull flattened, with the yield on the 2Y UST falling 1 bp to 3.86%, while that on the 10Y UST was down 4 bps at 4.38%. Equities climbed to fresh record highs, with the S&P 500 advancing 0.1% to 6,306 and the Nasdaq up 0.4% at 20,974.

Sidekick: Building the LiveFi Infrastructure for Real-Time Trading

By Animoca Brands Research

  • Sidekick is a Web3-native livestreaming platform that blends TikTok-style content flow, Huya-style monetization, and on-chain execution into a single experience. Within livestreams, users can tip, and participate in airdrops directly, effectively transforming content creators into real-time asset distributors.
  • As crypto attention markets grow increasingly saturated, promotional methods like shill tweets and leaderboard campaigns are showing diminishing impact. Livestreaming presents a more trusted, higher-conversion format that aligns with how both meme tokens and VC backed projects now build visibility and credibility.
  • The platform has gained strong early traction in Asia, onboarding over 1000 livestream focused KOLs. Sidekick now aims to broaden its content verticals and encourage deeper community engagement. 

Veritas Finance Pre-IPO: Fast Growing Lender to the Un/Under-Banked

By Nicholas Tan

  • Veritas Finance Ltd (1392490D IN) is looking to raise up to US$323m in its upcoming Indian IPO.
  • It was established in 2015, and is a non-deposit taking non-banking financial company (NBFC) registered with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), classified as an ‘NBFC-Middle Layer’.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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Daily Brief Australia: Woolworths Ltd, Wisetech Global, REA Group Ltd, Brambles Ltd, Transurban Group, Fletcher Building, Warriedar Resources and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Woolworths Group Limited: Initiation of Coverage- Inside the Bold Push to Reinvent Grocery with W Living and Private Labels!
  • WiseTech Global: Initiation of Coverage: Can The Ramp-Up of New Products & Innovations Up Their Game?
  • REA Group: Initiation of Coverage- Yield Gains
  • Brambles Limited: Initiation of Coverage- Will Its Latest Investments in Technology & Data Analytics Help Disrupt the $10 Trillion Logistics Industry?
  • Transurban Group: Initiation of Coverage- Surging Traffic & Smart Debt Moves Signal Improved Profitability Ahead!
  • Fletcher Building Ltd – The Overnight Report: Tariff Impacts Felt
  • Warriedar Resources Ltd – Further Exploration Update


Woolworths Group Limited: Initiation of Coverage- Inside the Bold Push to Reinvent Grocery with W Living and Private Labels!

By Baptista Research

  • Woolworths Group’s half-year financial performance for FY 2025 exhibits a mix of achievements and challenges, emphasizing the competitive and dynamic retail landscape.
  • The company’s diverse portfolio, including Australian Food, New Zealand Food, BIG W, and other segments, reflected varied growth patterns influenced by external and internal factors.
  • Starting with the positives, Woolworths Group achieved a 3.7% increase in group sales, reaching $35.9 billion, with eCommerce sales showcasing robust growth of 20%.

WiseTech Global: Initiation of Coverage: Can The Ramp-Up of New Products & Innovations Up Their Game?

By Baptista Research

  • WiseTech Global Limited, a developer of cloud-based software solutions for the international and domestic logistics industries, recently released its first half of 2025 financial results.
  • The company reported revenue of $381 million, marking a 17% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with an organic revenue growth rate of 15%.
  • CargoWise, their flagship logistics platform, exhibited strong performance with organic revenue growth of 20% and recurring revenue contributing 99% of total CargoWise revenue.

REA Group: Initiation of Coverage- Yield Gains

By Baptista Research

  • REA Group Limited has reported strong growth in its third quarter of the fiscal year, underscored by significant yield increases across its operations.
  • The company posted a 12% rise in revenue to $374 million, alongside a 12% boost in EBITDA, excluding associates, reaching $199 million.
  • These results reflect favorable market conditions and strategic initiatives implemented by the company.

Brambles Limited: Initiation of Coverage- Will Its Latest Investments in Technology & Data Analytics Help Disrupt the $10 Trillion Logistics Industry?

By Baptista Research

  • Brambles Limited’s performance for the first half of 2025 presents a mixed picture, combining robust growth with specific challenges.
  • The company demonstrated a 4% increase in sales, equally contributed by price realization and volume growth, along with a notable 10% uplift in underlying profit.
  • This growth is largely credited to the U.S. pallets business, reflecting successful net new business wins.

Transurban Group: Initiation of Coverage- Surging Traffic & Smart Debt Moves Signal Improved Profitability Ahead!

By Baptista Research

  • The latest financial results for Transurban display a mix of positive operational advances and some challenges that merit attention.
  • The company reported a promising 6.2% increase in proportional toll revenue.
  • Over the same period, cost-cutting measures contributed to a 3% decline in expenses, which translated into a 9.4% rise in operating EBITDA and a 220 basis point enhancement in the EBITDA margin.

Fletcher Building Ltd – The Overnight Report: Tariff Impacts Felt

By FNArena

  • A global perspective on what happened overnight

Warriedar Resources Ltd – Further Exploration Update

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Warriedar Resources Limited (ASX:WA8) is an emerging gold and antimony developer whose flagship Golden Range project hosts ~2.3moz in AuEq resources in the prolific gold-producing Murchison region of Western Australia.
  • Since the acquisition of the project in CY23, WA8 has expanded the gold resource and delineated a globally significant antimony resource which is also contained in the core Ricciardo deposit.
  • Whilst the gold resource alone could support a commercial development, the overlapping antimony resource not only increases the economic value, it adds a strategic value to the project given the supply shortages and trade restrictions affecting this commodity.

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Daily Brief South Korea: HD Hyundai Heavy Industries , Makus Inc, LIG Nex1 Co, Hyundai Hyms and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • HD Merger: Overblown Policy Risk Creates a Convergence Play Opportunity
  • Makus: A Textbook Case Study of How Improving Shareholder Value Leads to Surging Share Price
  • LIG Nex1 (079550 KS): Stock Soars; Momentum Stalls; Global Index Inclusion Next
  • M&A of Hyundai Hyms – Who Will Buy Controlling Stake?


HD Merger: Overblown Policy Risk Creates a Convergence Play Opportunity

By Sanghyun Park

  • NAV sets the floor under the proposed bill. That’d cut the swap ratio from 1:0.162 to 1:0.128 — meaning Infracore holders get fewer CE shares than under market pricing.
  • Unlike the Doosan deal, this one’s unlikely to get walked back. With wide spreads and HD setting a 10% SO cap, the dislocation looks tradable despite appraisal right overhang.
  • Top holders/NPS hold ~50%, local instos 20%, foreigners 15% and retail the rest. Sentiment’s cautious but not hostile; appraisal risk looks manageable, making this spread a potential convergence play.

Makus: A Textbook Case Study of How Improving Shareholder Value Leads to Surging Share Price

By Douglas Kim

  • Makus Inc (093520 KS) is a textbook case study in Korea of how improving shareholder value leads to surging share price. Its example is simple and beautiful.
  • Makus announced that it will cancel a total of 6 million treasury shares (37% of outstanding shares) in the next three years  until 2027 to increase shareholder value. 
  • Applying a 15x P/E on EPS of 2,788 won (2027E) results in implied target price of 41,820 won per share, which would be a 67% further upside from current levels.

LIG Nex1 (079550 KS): Stock Soars; Momentum Stalls; Global Index Inclusion Next

By Brian Freitas

  • LIG Nex1 Co (079550 KS)‘s stock price has doubled over the last 3 months, and the increased market cap could now result in a global index inclusion.
  • LIG Nex1 Co (079550 KS) has outperformed most of its peers over the last few months and now trades expensive on a range of metrics.
  • While momentum could take the stock higher, there is a risk of pullback as positioning in the stock is unwound.

M&A of Hyundai Hyms – Who Will Buy Controlling Stake?

By Douglas Kim

  • The management ownership stake of Hyundai Hyms is up for sale. J&P Private Equity firm which owns 52.88% stake in Hyundai Hyms has sent out teaser letters to potential buyers. 
  • Including a management premium ranging from 30% to 50%, the potential acquisition price (including management premium) could be worth about 481 billion won to 555 billion won.
  • Since the second largest shareholder, HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (HD KSOE) (20.89% stake), has the right of first negotiation, the selling side must first negotiate with HD KSOE.

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Daily Brief Japan: Kawasaki Heavy Industries, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Shift Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Recovery Done, Eyes on Hydrogen, Aerospace, and Margin Upside
  • Proxy Voting at AGMs Is Good Opportunity for Investors to Think if Managers Fulfill Fiduciary Duties
  • Shift 3Q: OP Beat with Upgrade to Guidance; Share Price on a Recovery


Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Recovery Done, Eyes on Hydrogen, Aerospace, and Margin Upside

By Rahul Jain

  • Past Performance: KHI has rebounded from FY21 losses to record-high revenues and profits in FY25, driven by aerospace recovery and energy systems strength.
  • Future Growth: Orderbook visibility of ~¥3 trillion supports 5–6% annual growth, led by hydrogen, commercial engines, and automation.
  • Valuations: At 7.6x EV/EBITDA and 14x PE (NTM), KHI trades at a discount to peers like MHI and Komatsu, reflecting lower ROE and execution risk on long-cycle capex bets.

Proxy Voting at AGMs Is Good Opportunity for Investors to Think if Managers Fulfill Fiduciary Duties

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Although corporate governance in Japan has gradually improved over the past decade, many listed companies have failed to achieve their management goal of sustainable growth in corporate value.
  • TSE seems to believe that the underlying problem is that management does not recognize “capital costs” and is therefore unable to concentrate resources on businesses that can secure sufficient margins.
  • I believe that the problem stems from a lack of awareness that free cash flow belongs to shareholders and that companies have a fiduciary duty to shareholders.

Shift 3Q: OP Beat with Upgrade to Guidance; Share Price on a Recovery

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

  • Shift Inc (3697 JP) reported 3QFY08/2025 results last week, with solid top-line and earnings growth. 3Q revenue fell below consensus while OP beat consensus by a huge margin.
  • The margin drop in 3Q was only due to seasonality and not due to operational inefficiencies. Shift also raised its full-year OP guidance which seems too conservative.
  • The market overreacted to Shift’s 3Q earnings with a 10% drop; however, the share price has begun to move up as there is no reason to panic.

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Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index, Waaree Energies, Sona Blw Precision Forgings Lt, Prestige Hospitality Ventures Ltd, Uco Bank, Veritas Finance Ltd, Pine Labs and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY50 Index Outlook Amid Ongoing Rebalance Review
  • Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN): Increased Float & Global Index Inclusion
  • Sona Comstar’s China JV: Tapping into the World’s Largest EV Market
  • Prestige Hospitality Ventures Pre-IPO-Marriott-Heavy Portfolio with Other Operating Revenue Concerns
  • UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. IOB (IOB IN): Catch-Up Potential
  • Veritas Finance Pre-IPO: Fast Growing Lender to the Un/Under-Banked
  • Pine Labs Pre-IPO – The Negatives – …some Segments Slowing, Lots Unexplained


NIFTY50 Index Outlook Amid Ongoing Rebalance Review

By Nico Rosti

  • As outlined by Brian Freitas , the NIFTY Index ‘s September rebalance ends July 31st, the announcement of the changes will take place end August and implemented on September 29th.
  • The index has been pulling back for 3 weeks, it’s oversold according to our model, 75% probability of reversing up this week.
  • Lower support limit would be 24319, while a rally could take the index to 25642 across a couple of weeks. The rally won’t last more than 2 weeks probably.

Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN): Increased Float & Global Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas


Sona Comstar’s China JV: Tapping into the World’s Largest EV Market

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • On July 20, 2025, Sona Blw Precision Forgings Lt (SONACOMS IN) announced a $20 million joint venture with China’s JNT to enter the world’s largest EV market.
  • The move aims to capture growth in China’s dominant EV market, aligning with the company’s new strategy to expand into eastern markets
  • An EV slowdown is expected in FY26 while the China JV and railway business, despite driving future growth from FY27 onwards, are expected to lower margins.

Prestige Hospitality Ventures Pre-IPO-Marriott-Heavy Portfolio with Other Operating Revenue Concerns

By Akshat Shah

  • Prestige Hospitality Ventures Ltd (1831338D IN) is looking to raise about US$317m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Prestige Hospitality Ventures Ltd (PHVL) is part of the Prestige Group. It is a hospitality asset owner and developer focused on luxury, upper upscale, and upper midscale properties in India.
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. IOB (IOB IN): Catch-Up Potential

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: The Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN) vs. UCO Bank (UCO IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
  • Highlights: Statistical mean reversion suggests short-term outperformance of UCO Bank (UCO IN), also supported by more attractive valuations.
  • Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Veritas Finance Pre-IPO: Fast Growing Lender to the Un/Under-Banked

By Nicholas Tan

  • Veritas Finance Ltd (1392490D IN) is looking to raise up to US$323m in its upcoming Indian IPO.
  • It was established in 2015, and is a non-deposit taking non-banking financial company (NBFC) registered with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), classified as an ‘NBFC-Middle Layer’.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Pine Labs Pre-IPO – The Negatives – …some Segments Slowing, Lots Unexplained

By Sumeet Singh

  • Pine Labs is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Pine Labs (PL) is a fintech firm focused on digitizing commerce through digital payments and issuing solutions for merchants, consumer brands and enterprises, and financial institutions.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

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Daily Brief China: WuXi XDC Cayman , Maxio Technology Hangzhou, Iron Ore, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group, Road King Infrastructure, Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Wuxi XDC Cayman (2268 HK): Soaring Pharma Stocks & Global Index Inclusion
  • STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes for September
  • [IO Fundamentals 2025/29] IO Recovery in Spotlight Amid China’s Infrastructure Drive
  • Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) – What’s Clicking in Q1FY26? Brand Revamp, Cost Focus and SSS Recovery
  • Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO Update: New Data Points
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • MicroPort MedBot (2252 HK): Growth Flash Amid Favorable Momentum with Approvals and Overseas Sales


Wuxi XDC Cayman (2268 HK): Soaring Pharma Stocks & Global Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK)‘s stock price has recovered from the tariff fear induced selloff and the higher market cap should result in global index inclusion in August.
  • WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK) has gone from bottom of the pack to middle over the last 9 months and there could be further relative upside.
  • There is positioning in the stock but it appears to be lower than positioning in its peers. Long/short trades could offer better risk/return.

STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes for September

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 2 constituent change for the STAR Chip Index at the September rebalance. There will also be a few capping changes.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 1.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 983m (US$137m). Passives need to trade between 0.4-1.9x ADV in the potential changes.
  • Both forecast inclusions are newly eligible for index inclusion and the passive buying could provide some support following the drop in the stock price post listing.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/29] IO Recovery in Spotlight Amid China’s Infrastructure Drive

By Umang Agrawal

  • China’s mega hydropower project signals stronger infrastructure-led steel demand, offering a lifeline to mills and boosting near-term iron ore demand and prices amid weak property activity.
  • Rio Tinto’s strong Q2 output boosts near-term iron ore momentum, but muted shipments, cyclone impact, and gradual Simandou ramp-up may limit upside in prices.
  • Portside iron ore inventory data showed mixed signals last week, with SMM reporting a sharp drop while CISA data reflected a slight increase.

Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) – What’s Clicking in Q1FY26? Brand Revamp, Cost Focus and SSS Recovery

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

  • Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) saw lowest degrowth in retail sales value(RSV) in Q1FY26 among last few quarters.
  • Same-Store sales growth showed a clear sequential improvement across key regions. Mainland China self-operated stores saw the decline narrow sharply.
  • Driven by store optimization and brand transformation, earnings quality should sustain. At 16.9x P/E valuation on FY26e EPS, we believe investors will increasingly view CTF as a long-term structural winner.

Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO Update: New Data Points

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Innogen, a China-based near-commercial stage biotech company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. CITIC Securities and CICC are the joint sponsors.
  • In this note, we look at changes to the company’s refiled application proof.
  • We also did a comparison between the company’s product and PegBio’s PB-119. PegBio was listed on HKEx in May. We also check its products’ online listing.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Road King Infrastructure, Continuum Green, Softbank Group
  • UST yields declined for a second straight day yesterday. There were no major macro catalysts, albeit the move was in line with gains across most European government bonds.
  • The UST curve bull flattened, with the yield on the 2Y UST falling 1 bp to 3.86%, while that on the 10Y UST was down 4 bps at 4.38%. Equities climbed to fresh record highs, with the S&P 500 advancing 0.1% to 6,306 and the Nasdaq up 0.4% at 20,974.

MicroPort MedBot (2252 HK): Growth Flash Amid Favorable Momentum with Approvals and Overseas Sales

By Tina Banerjee

  • Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group (2252 HK) announced flash results for 1H25 where they expect the revenue to rise 70–80% YoY and net loss to narrow down to RMB 125M.
  • Toumai Laparoscopic Surgical Robot continued to be the main growth driver securing new orders of 18 units and achieving commercial installation of more than 13 units in overseas markets.
  • MedBot’s recent approvals of Toumai variants, technology advantages, and commercialization strength places it at an inflection point, expected to be back in the black soon.

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Daily Brief United States: Silver, Crude Oil, Gold, McGraw Hill, Chevron Corp, Exxon Mobil, Natural Gas, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc , Base Oil, Build A Bear Workshop and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Shining Silver Set To Go Parabolic Powered by Gold, Supply Deficit, & Weak Dollar
  • [WTI Options Weekly 2025/29] WTI Retreats as Supply Worries and Bearish Sentiment Resurface
  • Something Is Brewing…
  • McGraw Hill IPO: Legacy Publisher to an EdTech Play. Key Facts, Financials and Valuation
  • [Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces the Heat as Earnings Projected to Slide and Traders Turn Defensive
  • [Earnings Preview] Exxon Braces for Weakest Quarter Since 2021 But Markets Bet on a Surprise
  • [Henry Hub Options Weekly 2025/29] Henry Hub Gained on Better Demand Despite Supply Concerns
  • Cleveland-Cliffs Q2 FY25: Strong Beat, H2 Upside Intact, Valuation Still Undemanding
  • Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 21 July
  • BBW: Snapping the Store; Going to the Next Level; Reiterate Buy, $65 PT


Shining Silver Set To Go Parabolic Powered by Gold, Supply Deficit, & Weak Dollar

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Silver (SILVER COMDTY) going parabolic. Why? Three reasons. Stratospheric Gold prices. Robust industrial demand amid supply constraints. Weaking dollar.
  • Silver IV is spiking up. Especially, Up Var jumped 10.7% to 35.64 signalling rising bullish sentiments among options market makers.
  • Silver is forecasted to have supply deficit seventh year in succession.

[WTI Options Weekly 2025/29] WTI Retreats as Supply Worries and Bearish Sentiment Resurface

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures dropped by 3.5% for the week ending 18/Jul, marking its first fall in three weeks. The downtrend was driven by fears over oversupply and weak demand.
  • The U.S. rig count rose by seven to 544, led by a rise in gas rigs. Oil rigs dropped for the twelfth straight week, down by two to 422.
  • WTI OI PCR rose to 0.96 on 18/Jul compared to 0.91 on 11/Jul. Call OI fell by 22.8% WoW, while put OI dropped by 18.4%.

Something Is Brewing…

By The Commodity Report

  • The Abrdn Commodity Index is putting in a textbook head and shoulders consolidation pattern.
  • These chart patterns with a large base have the tendency to build the fundament for big breakouts. Something is brewing from a technical perspective here…
  • The ETF is tracking the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return (BCOM).

McGraw Hill IPO: Legacy Publisher to an EdTech Play. Key Facts, Financials and Valuation

By Devi Subhakesan

  • McGraw Hill (MH US) , a leading name in educational publishing, is offering 24.39 mn shares to raise up to USD537 mn targeting an equity valuation of USD4.2 billion.
  • McGraw Hill is a global provider of educational content and digital learning solutions, serving the K-12, higher education, and professional learning markets. Digital segment accounted for 65% of its revenues.
  • McGraw Hill’s transition from print to predominantly digital positions the company to benefit from several structural shifts in the education sector.

[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces the Heat as Earnings Projected to Slide and Traders Turn Defensive

By Suhas Reddy

  • Chevron’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 8% QoQ and 14.5% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 21.6% QoQ and 32.9% YoY.
  • Chevron’s Q2 earnings are expected to fall to their lowest level since 2021, primarily due to weak crude oil and natural gas prices.
  • Bearish sentiment dominates options positioning, with elevated put-call ratios and heavy put open interest near key support levels.

[Earnings Preview] Exxon Braces for Weakest Quarter Since 2021 But Markets Bet on a Surprise

By Suhas Reddy

  • Exxon’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 3% QoQ and 13.4% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 11.4% QoQ and 27.1% YoY.
  • Exxon’s Q2 earnings are expected to hit their lowest since Q3 2021, driven by weak crude and gas prices despite stronger refining margins.
  • Options market positioning shows a bullish bias, suggesting traders are betting on a potential upside surprise.

[Henry Hub Options Weekly 2025/29] Henry Hub Gained on Better Demand Despite Supply Concerns

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 18/Jul, Henry Hub rebounded by 7.6% on the back of warm weather forecasts and rising gas flows to LNG export terminals.
  • For the week ending 11/Jul, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 46 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 44 Bcf build.
  • Henry Hub OI PCR remained unchanged at 0.87 on 18/Jul compared to 11/Jul. Call OI grew by 3.1% WoW, while put OI increased by 3.3%.

Cleveland-Cliffs Q2 FY25: Strong Beat, H2 Upside Intact, Valuation Still Undemanding

By Rahul Jain

  • Q2 EBITDA of $97M beat expectations by $132M, driven by record shipments, a $15/ton cost cut, and ASP of $1,015/ton.
  • Management reaffirmed a $50/ton cost-reduction target, expects H2 free cash flow inflection, and sees stable shipments with pricing support.
  • Despite a 12.5% post-earnings rally, CLF trades at just 0.55x P/B and $653/ton EV, a steep discount to U.S. peers like Nucor and SDI.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 21 July

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s heavy-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil stays elevated even as it edges lower.
  • Firm margins incentivize refiners to maintain high output of heavy-grade base oils.
  • Firm margins and high output could trigger rise in surplus supplies.

BBW: Snapping the Store; Going to the Next Level; Reiterate Buy, $65 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $65 price target and projections for Build-A-Bear Workshop after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut.
  • Even though we are in the dog days of Summer, Build-A-Bear has seen no slowdown in innovation, launching their first round of licensed Mini Beans (Hello Kitty and Friends), leveraging the recent Superman movie release, beginning to roll out new fixtures for Mini Beans, expanding their relationship with cheer-leading leader Varsity Sports and launching new Giant licensed characters (Bluey).
  • With Halloween on track for release next month, we believe there has been no slowdown in momentum for the company, and we remain confident in Build-A-Bear’s potential to drive further top and bottom line upside; as such, we reiterate our Buy rating and $65 price target for BBW.

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Most Read: Seven & I Holdings, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders , Shengyi Electronics, 3SBio Inc, Insignia Financial, WuXi XDC Cayman , HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • The Final ACT Comedy of Errors Opens the Way for Real Value to Emerge at Seven & I
  • Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Cheaper than Peers with Index Inclusion Kicker
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 July 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Continues Some More
  • NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes & Close Names
  • STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Outright Changes & Migrations
  • 3SBio (1530 HK): Global Index Inclusion as Stock Soars
  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU) Accepts CC Capital’s Reduced Terms
  • UK Fiscal Slippage Rules
  • Wuxi XDC Cayman (2268 HK): Soaring Pharma Stocks & Global Index Inclusion
  • HD Merger: Overblown Policy Risk Creates a Convergence Play Opportunity


The Final ACT Comedy of Errors Opens the Way for Real Value to Emerge at Seven & I

By Michael Causton

  • ACT’s bid for Seven & I has been withdrawn and Seven will be better off long-term because of it – although we detail here how competitors are catching up fast.
  • Once York HD has been split off, the company can at last focus on its crucial local CVS operation: Japan makes up 25% of revenues but almost 50% of profits.
  • The potential is real and we are bullish on the long-term value but we would have been more bullish if the former CEO Ryuichi Isaka was still on board.

Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Cheaper than Peers with Index Inclusion Kicker

By Brian Freitas

  • Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) stock price has moved higher over the last few months, and the increased market cap should result in global index inclusion in August.
  • Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics. 
  • There will be positioning in the stock that has been built up over the last month and a relative value trade could offer better risk reward here.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 July 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Continues Some More

By Travis Lundy

  • AH premia flat again among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It still pays well to be long wide H discounts.
  • Weeks ago I said, “It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.” Ride on.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes & Close Names

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period nearing completion, there could be 4 changes (including 1 migration) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in September.
  • There is one stock close to inclusion zone and one stock close to deletion zone and price movements over the rest of the month will determine the final changes.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 30.06bn (US$350m). Six of the eight potential changes will have over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers.

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Outright Changes & Migrations

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 1 change for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 5 changes for the STAR100 Index in September.
  • We estimate turnover of 1% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 3.6% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated round-trip trade is CNY 5bn (US$700m).
  • Near term performance for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) changes has been great, while the performance of the outright STAR100 Index changes has been far from satisfactory.

3SBio (1530 HK): Global Index Inclusion as Stock Soars

By Brian Freitas

  • 3SBio Inc (1530 HK)‘s stock price has soared over the last couple of months, and the higher market cap should result in global index inclusion in August.
  • 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) has gone from middle/bottom of the pack to best performer among its peer group over the last two months.
  • There will be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar trend across stocks in the industry.

Insignia Financial (IFL AU) Accepts CC Capital’s Reduced Terms

By David Blennerhassett

  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU), a wealth manager and previously known as IOOF, has entered into a Scheme with CC Capital at $A$4.80/share. 
  • That’s 56.9% premium to undisturbed (11th December 2024), 20% above Bain’s initial indicative tilt last year, but 4% below CC Capital (% Bain’s) A$5.00/share indictive Offer on the 7th March.
  • Apart from the Scheme vote, CC Capital’s Offer requires a raft a regulatory approvals. The SID indicates 1H26 completion.

UK Fiscal Slippage Rules

By Phil Rush

  • The UK’s de facto fiscal rule is slippage, with a £50bn to £100bn increase in borrowing between initial official forecasts and outcomes. 2025-26 made another slippery start.
  • Politicians spend any space in the OBR forecasts, skewing surprises to higher spending. Yet tax hikes keep failing to raise the hoped revenue, motivating further increases.
  • Investors should not be fooled by forecasts for consolidation when the failed strategy driving the fiscal slippage rule survives. Issuance may stay near £300bn in 2029-30.

Wuxi XDC Cayman (2268 HK): Soaring Pharma Stocks & Global Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK)‘s stock price has recovered from the tariff fear induced selloff and the higher market cap should result in global index inclusion in August.
  • WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK) has gone from bottom of the pack to middle over the last 9 months and there could be further relative upside.
  • There is positioning in the stock but it appears to be lower than positioning in its peers. Long/short trades could offer better risk/return.

HD Merger: Overblown Policy Risk Creates a Convergence Play Opportunity

By Sanghyun Park

  • NAV sets the floor under the proposed bill. That’d cut the swap ratio from 1:0.162 to 1:0.128 — meaning Infracore holders get fewer CE shares than under market pricing.
  • Unlike the Doosan deal, this one’s unlikely to get walked back. With wide spreads and HD setting a 10% SO cap, the dislocation looks tradable despite appraisal right overhang.
  • Top holders/NPS hold ~50%, local instos 20%, foreigners 15% and retail the rest. Sentiment’s cautious but not hostile; appraisal risk looks manageable, making this spread a potential convergence play.

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Analytics and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Australia: Cromwell Property, Insignia Financial, BHP Group Ltd, Fortescue Metals, 29Metals, CSL Ltd, Evolution Mining, Iron Ore, JB Hi-Fi Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): Brookfield’s Stake Foreshadows A Full Takeover
  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU) Accepts CC Capital’s Reduced Terms
  • BHP Group: Initiation of Coverage- Inside the $4.4 Billion Profit Engine Fueling the Next Commodity Supercycle!
  • Fortescue Metals Group: Initiation of Coverage- Hydrogen Ambitions
  • 29Metals Ltd – Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jul 22, 2025
  • CSL Limited: Initiation of Coverage- Powering Global Growth with Solid Immunoglobulin & Albumin Wins!
  • Evolution Mining: Initiation of Coverage- Production Breakthroughs & Smart Spending Signal Strong Upside!
  • Insignia Financial Ltd – The Overnight Report: S&P500 Records New High
  • Iron Ore to 110 USD/Ton: Positive TSF Data and Mill Spread Momentum Builds
  • JB Hi-Fi Limited: Initiation of Coverage- Why Its Recent Growth In Tech & Appliance Sales Is Just the Beginning!


Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): Brookfield’s Stake Foreshadows A Full Takeover

By David Blennerhassett

  • As discussed in Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): ESR Exit Post-Privatization?,  after ESR (1821 HK) acquired ARA Asset Management in 2021, it said Cromwell Property (CMW AU) was a non-core holding.
  • After ESR announced a privatisation by Warburg/Starwood on the 4th December 2024, I mused whether this would accelerate the sale as part of a wider strategic review. 
  • Two months ago, ESR initiated a block trade for part of its 31% stake in Cromwell. Now Brookfield is seeking ESR’s remaining 19.9% stake @A$0.38/share. Subject to FIRB approval.

Insignia Financial (IFL AU) Accepts CC Capital’s Reduced Terms

By David Blennerhassett

  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU), a wealth manager and previously known as IOOF, has entered into a Scheme with CC Capital at $A$4.80/share. 
  • That’s 56.9% premium to undisturbed (11th December 2024), 20% above Bain’s initial indicative tilt last year, but 4% below CC Capital (% Bain’s) A$5.00/share indictive Offer on the 7th March.
  • Apart from the Scheme vote, CC Capital’s Offer requires a raft a regulatory approvals. The SID indicates 1H26 completion.

BHP Group: Initiation of Coverage- Inside the $4.4 Billion Profit Engine Fueling the Next Commodity Supercycle!

By Baptista Research

  • BHP Group Limited’s performance in the first half of the 2025 financial year illustrates a mix of strategic advancements and operational challenges in its diverse portfolio.
  • The first half results showcase several strengths and areas for further focus as the company navigates a complex global mining landscape.
  • A key positive from BHP’s recent performance is the record output in its Western Australian iron ore operations, which achieved the lowest production costs globally.

Fortescue Metals Group: Initiation of Coverage- Hydrogen Ambitions

By Baptista Research

  • Fortescue Metals Group Limited’s latest earnings report reveals a mix of strategic growth initiatives, operational achievements, and emerging challenges.
  • The company has reported its highest-ever first-half shipments of 97.1 million tonnes, underpinning a strong operational performance.
  • A significant improvement in safety metrics, namely a 44% improvement in Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate (TRIFR), further emphasizes Fortescue’s commitment to maintaining high safety standards on-site.


CSL Limited: Initiation of Coverage- Powering Global Growth with Solid Immunoglobulin & Albumin Wins!

By Baptista Research

  • CSL Limited, an Australian multinational specialty biotechnology company, reported its financial performance for the first half of fiscal year 2025, presenting a nuanced picture of its current business landscape.
  • From an investor’s standpoint, analyzing both the positive aspects and the challenges noted in the earnings call gives a clearer sense of CSL Limited’s operational and strategic trajectory.
  • Starting with the positives, the company reported solid financial results, with group revenues reaching $8.5 billion, reflecting a 5% increase at constant currency.

Evolution Mining: Initiation of Coverage- Production Breakthroughs & Smart Spending Signal Strong Upside!

By Baptista Research

  • Evolution Mining reported strong performance for the June 2025 quarter, marking a positive end to the fiscal year.
  • The company produced 182,000 ounces of gold and 19,000 tonnes of copper for the quarter, reaching a total of 751,000 ounces of gold and 76,000 tonnes of copper for the full year.
  • However, the increase in all-in sustaining costs (AISC) to $1,572 per ounce for FY’25 was significantly affected by higher royalty costs due to elevated gold prices.


Iron Ore to 110 USD/Ton: Positive TSF Data and Mill Spread Momentum Builds

By Sameer Taneja


JB Hi-Fi Limited: Initiation of Coverage- Why Its Recent Growth In Tech & Appliance Sales Is Just the Beginning!

By Baptista Research

  • JB Hi-Fi Limited has presented a mixed financial performance for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year, showcasing its resilience in a competitive and challenging retail environment.
  • The company reported a solid increase in total sales across its key divisions, namely JB Hi-Fi Australia, JB Hi-Fi New Zealand, and The Good Guys.
  • Total sales in JB Hi-Fi Australia grew by 7.2%, reaching AUD 3.88 billion, while JB Hi-Fi New Zealand exceeded expectations with a 20% rise in sales to NZD 202.5 million.

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Daily Brief United States: Meta, Figma, Ambiq Micro, Cocoa Futures, McGraw Hill, Accelerant Holdings, Norfolk Southern, NIQ Global Intelligence and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Meta Scores Big with PlayAI Acquisition—Here’s What It Means for AI’s Future!
  • Figma Inc (FIG): High Profile Software IPO Sets Terms, Expecting Major Attention Next Week
  • Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): Semiconductor Solutions Company Sets Terms for IPO
  • Figma (FIG US): Delayed US & Global Index Inclusion Despite Aimed $13.7B Valuation
  • Global Commodities: Cocoa market crunch
  • McGraw Hill, Inc. (MH): Caution Needed for Upcoming PE-Backed Legacy Education IPO
  • Accelerant Holdings (ARX): Growth & Adoption Highlights Bull Case for Insurance Marketplace IPO
  • Union Pacific Eyes Norfolk Southern: Is America’s First Coast-to-Coast Rail Giant Taking Shape?
  • Figma IPO (FIG.US): Investor Interest Remains Strong, Likely To Price IPO at Top of Range
  • NIQ Global Intelligence Plc (NIQ): Advent-Backed IPO to Provide Litmus Test for Market


Meta Scores Big with PlayAI Acquisition—Here’s What It Means for AI’s Future!

By Baptista Research

  • In the fast-moving world of artificial intelligence, Meta has doubled down on voice-driven innovation by snapping up PlayAI, a nimble startup renowned for its natural-sounding speech synthesis and user-friendly voice-creation platform.
  • With more than 3.4 billion daily users across its apps and nearly one billion monthly users of its Meta AI service, the company is eager to integrate PlayAI’s specialized talent directly into Meta Superintelligence Labs.
  • This move arrives just after Meta rolled out Llama 4 models and launched its stand-alone Meta AI app, signaling an all-in push toward multimodal, conversational AI.

Figma Inc (FIG): High Profile Software IPO Sets Terms, Expecting Major Attention Next Week

By IPO Boutique

  • Figma is offering 36.9mm shares at $25.00-$28.00 equating to a market cap of $12.2bn-$13.65b and is scheduled to debut on July 31st.
  • They estimate their total revenue to increase by 39% to 41% for the three months ended June 30, 2025 compared to the three months ended June 30, 2024.
  • This company is highly regarded in the software sector and we believe that there will be ample interest in this IPO.

Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): Semiconductor Solutions Company Sets Terms for IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • Ambiq Micro is offering 3.4mm shares at $22.00-$25.00 equating to a market cap of $375m-$426m and is scheduled to debut on July 30th.
  • The company is currently undergoing a “shift” from a customer base that relies heavily on mainland China to other parts of the world.
  • The updated prospectus further outlines the ownership percentages and lists Kleiner Perkins and EDB Investments Ptd Ltd as owners of 14.8% and 6.0% prior to this offering.

Figma (FIG US): Delayed US & Global Index Inclusion Despite Aimed $13.7B Valuation

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Figma (FIG US) targets a valuation of $13.7bn, aiming to raise $1.2bn given it reaches the top of its pricing range.
  • Inclusion in US and Global indices is delayed until 2026 due to failing free float and public voting rights eligibility before lock-up expiries.
  • Figma (FIG US) is expected to be added to US TMI at the September 2025 review.

Global Commodities: Cocoa market crunch

By At Any Rate

  • Concerns for sugar cane yields and sugar content in major sugar market exporter
  • China’s soybean import demand reached record seasonal high, following Brazilian crop
  • Short covering seen in grain complex, USDA trimmed US corn availability expectations, driving force behind corn price recovery; tariff impacts on Brazilian products into US market, potential changes in sweetener mix for Coca Cola

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


McGraw Hill, Inc. (MH): Caution Needed for Upcoming PE-Backed Legacy Education IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • McGraw Hill (MH US) , is  offering 24.39mm shares at $19.00-$22.00 equating to a market cap of $3.6b-$4.2b and is scheduled to debut on July 24th.
  • We were pleasantly “surprised” to hear that the deal’s channel checks came in strong. According to guidance, the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed with continued long-only conversions.
  • Bringing the IPO at a valuation that is a down-round is a “positive”, however the sector in which this company operates in “may” prove to be a difficult sell.

Accelerant Holdings (ARX): Growth & Adoption Highlights Bull Case for Insurance Marketplace IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • According to our sources, the deal is double-digits oversubscribed with “meaningful mutual fund conversions”.
  • Exchange written premiums were $3.1b in 2024 and the company is projecting premiums of $2.0b-$2.1b in the 1H 2025 alone.
  • From a valuation standpoint, the company is targeting a near 20x multiple of EV-to-Ebitda and mid-teens multiple based on 2026 Ebitda which is considered aggressive.

Union Pacific Eyes Norfolk Southern: Is America’s First Coast-to-Coast Rail Giant Taking Shape?

By Baptista Research

  • Norfolk Southern Corp. has emerged as a potential acquisition target for Union Pacific Corp., with early-stage discussions underway that could reshape the North American rail landscape.
  • If the deal materializes, it would combine the largest and fifth-largest railroads by revenue, creating a network valued at nearly $200 billion and extending from coast to coast — an unprecedented footprint in U.S. rail history.
  • Union Pacific CEO Jim Vena has publicly discussed the strategic merits of a transcontinental railroad, and Norfolk Southern CFO Jason Zampi has echoed support for such a structure, citing potential benefits.

Figma IPO (FIG.US): Investor Interest Remains Strong, Likely To Price IPO at Top of Range

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Figma Inc., a fast-growing design software maker with strong VC backing, is expected to price the offering this week.
  • The company’s amended S-1 puts the initial price range per share at $25.00 to $28.00, implying a market cap of roughly $13B at the midpoint.
  • I have a positive view of upcoming Figma IPO and expect a strong first trading-day performance. The stock will begin trading on the NYSE on July 28, 2025.

NIQ Global Intelligence Plc (NIQ): Advent-Backed IPO to Provide Litmus Test for Market

By IPO Boutique

  • The company that describes itself as a leading global consumer intelligence company positioned at the nexus of brands, retailers and consumers is to debut on Wednesday, July 23rd.
  • According to guidance, that the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed with long-only, 1-on-1 conversions including anchor indications.
  • The company showed solid growth in 2024 of nearly 19% and followed that up with solid flash numbers of +7.5% growth in Q2.

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Sign Up for Free

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  • ✓ Company Data and News
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