Daily Briefs

In February 2022, Shimizu Corp (1803 JP) bought an additional 25% to get to 50.1% of Nippon Road (1884 JP). It wasn’t a great price.
It was, however, a good trade to buy the dip after, as recommended. I expected Shimizu to come back in one to three years. It took three.
Like last time, the price is light. The multiple is low. There are no synergies in the price analysis, in specific violation of the METI Fair M&A/CorpTakeover Guidelines. Bah humbug.

[Japan M&A/Activism] Infroneer To Buy Out Activist Target Sumi Mits Construction (1821) Cheapish

Noted activist Yoshiaki MURAKAMI and associates owned ~12.5% in March 2024, perhaps a tad more. Now they own ~29%.
Integrated Construction Co INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP) – congenitally allergic to paying full price for acquisitions – is buying Sumitomo Mitsui Construction (1821 JP) well below FAs’ DCF range midpoints.
But MURAKAMI-san has tossed his cards in, agreeing to tender. This looks like it gets done, but there are interesting angles.

Nippon Road (1884 JP): Shimizu Corp (1803 JP) Tender Offer Is Light but Likely Done

Nippon Road (1884 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Shimizu Corp (1803 JP) at JPY2,520, a 16.2% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer represents an all-time high and is 26.0% higher than the 2022 partial tender offer price. However, it is light compared to peer multiples.
The offer is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range. However, the required minority acceptance rate is not onerous, and this is a done deal.

SMPP Ltd Pre-IPO – In the Right Space (Defence), at the Right Time but Growth Has Been Inconsistent

By Sumeet Singh

SMPP Ltd is planning to raise about US$476m through its upcoming IPO in India.
SMPP Ltd. designs and manufactures defence equipment, specialising in ammunition components and personal protection products for the Indian armed forces, police, and security agencies.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

Epco Co Ltd (2311 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update

In Q1 FY12/25, revenue increased by 10.3% YoY to JPY1.5bn, while operating profit declined by 19.8%.
Renewable Energy Service business revenue rose 54.3% YoY, with recurring profit returning to the black from a prior loss.
Design Service business revenue increased 0.5% YoY, with a 4.3% rise in recurring profit due to efficiency improvements.

CIMC Enric (3899 HK): Deep Value

By Osbert Tang, CFA

CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK)‘s YTD decline in share price provides an opportunity to pick up this name, which sees a solid sequential earnings improvement this year.
1Q25 revenue growth accelerated to 24.4%, from 2.9% in 2H25. While 1Q25 new orders have dropped, there is a sharp rebound in Apr, with a more positive 2H25 outlook.
At 9.3x FY25 PER after going ex-dividend (27 May), it is cheap relative to 14.7% 3-year EPS CAGR. The stock is also trading at the low-bound of the 3-year range.

Ravi Infrabuild Projects Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Ravi Infrabuild Projects Ltd (1607447D IN) (RIPL) is looking to raise about US$178m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are Axis, Motilal.
RIPL is one of the leading infrastructure construction firms in India, experienced in executing structural projects such as flyovers, bridges, railways, highways, and expressways.
RIPL had grown 16.6x in terms of its average order size, reaching INR2,577m (as on Dec 2024), as per the company.

World Holdings (2429 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update

Revenue increased to JPY63.5bn (+15.8% YoY), with operating profit at JPY2.5bn (+292.9% YoY) and recurring profit at JPY2.4bn (+298.0% YoY).
Products HR business revenue was JPY28.1bn (+9.7% YoY), with segment profit at JPY750mn (+202.4% YoY).
Real Estate business revenue was JPY12.5bn (+61.2% YoY), with segment profit at JPY1.5bn (+206.9% YoY).

Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Consolidated sales for FY03/25 declined 0.3% YoY to JPY55.6bn, with operating profit down 94.4% YoY.
Q4 parent orders increased 22.9% YoY to JPY8.0bn, driven by industrial robots and semiconductor equipment orders.
HDSI forecasts 1H FY03/26 sales at JPY27.0bn, with operating profit of JPY300mn, recovering from previous losses.

Kulr Technology: Battery Technology Company Looks Overheated

By J Capital Research

Kulr Technology (NASDAQ: KULR) makes technology to manage heat levels in batteries.
We believe KULR has failed at building a product relevant to a large market.
Now, with less than $11 mln in annual revenue after 12 years of trying, KULR appears to have built a cottage industry in promoting its own stock.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

May 15

Daily Brief Consumer: GMO Internet, Ningbo Shuanglin Auto Parts, Raymond Lifestyle, Webjet Group, Sankyo Co Ltd, Kolmar Korea Holdings , Chagee Holdings, Ryohin Keikaku, Porsche Automobil Holding and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

GMO Internet (4784) Offering – This Is a GINORMOUS Re-IPO – AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE
CSI 500/1000 Index Rebalance Preview: Strong Near-Term Outperformance
GMO Internet (4784 JP): A Huge US$1.9 Billion Secondary Offering
Raymond Lifestyle: Governance Crisis?
Webjet (WJL AU) In Play: BGH/Weiss’ NBIO And Helloworld’s Substantial Stake
Sankyo Co: Big Buyback + Five Years Left Until Opening of Mega MGM Osaka Integrated Casino Resort
Sibling Conflict Between Yoon Sang-Hyun (Brother) And Yoon Yeo-Won (Sister) At Kolmar Group
Part 2: What Could Go Wrong at Chagee (CHA)
Trust in Muji Reaps Big Returns
Porsche Automobile Holding: Q1 2025, Discount to NAV

GMO Internet (4784) Offering – This Is a GINORMOUS Re-IPO – AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE

Last year, GMO injected its internet business into GMO Internet (4784 JP) and took shares as consideration. Somehow, GMO Internet got a TOPIX inclusion earlier this year.
The company has 1.24% float of 3.4mm shares. GMO Internet Group – the parent – will now offload 91.7mm shares in an equity offering to meet TSE Continued Listing Requirements.
That is about ¥279bn at current price against float of ¥10bn. Full market cap is ¥850bn. That’s 170x Dec25e Net Income. I expect the price will fall. You were warned.

CSI 500/1000 Index Rebalance Preview: Strong Near-Term Outperformance

By Brian Freitas

With the review period complete, there could be 50 changes for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index and 100 changes for the CSI 1000 Index in June.
There are a lot of migrations expected between the two indices and the impacts for those stocks are lower with much of the flow cancelling out.
The outright adds have outperformed the outright deletes over the last few months with the profit-taking in March giving way to renewed outperformance in April.

GMO Internet (4784 JP): A Huge US$1.9 Billion Secondary Offering

GMO Internet (4784 JP) has announced a secondary offering of 91.7 million shares, worth around US$1.9 billion.
The selling shareholder is GMO Internet Group (9449 JP). The secondary offering aims to increase the tradable share ratio to satisfy the TSE Prime Market’s continued listing criteria.
The offering represents 239.4 days of the 1-year ADV, the highest compared to the recent large Japanese placements. Pricing is likely to be on 5 June.

Raymond Lifestyle: Governance Crisis?

Raymond Lifestyle’s stock plummets 60% in six months post-demerger, due to lots of governance lapses.
Corporate Governance Crisis: CEO,CFO, Director Resignations, Delayed disclosures, Controversial Remuneration and Many More.
The company gave excuses such as inflation, an IT incident, etc. in their management meeting after not being able to deliver the performance.

Webjet (WJL AU) In Play: BGH/Weiss’ NBIO And Helloworld’s Substantial Stake

In Webjet (WJL AU): Undisclosed Buyer Buying, I addressed the rumours that an undisclosed buyer with ~5% was seeking to add an additional 5% (19.6mn shares).
On the 12th May, Helloworld Ltd (HLO AU) emerged with a 5.015% stake. The same day, BGH said it had 10.76%. BGH followed with a A$0.80/share NBIO.
BGH wants a controlling stake in Webjet (WJL AU), and potentially maintaining the listing; suggesting an off-market Offer, with say, a 50% acceptance hurdle being one possibility.

Sankyo Co: Big Buyback + Five Years Left Until Opening of Mega MGM Osaka Integrated Casino Resort

On 12 May, Sankyo Co Ltd (6417 JP) announced a big share buyback worth 13.66% of total issued shares (excluding treasury shares).
Aggregate amount of the purchase cost is up to 60 billion yen (9.7% of its current market cap).
We continue to have a Positive view of Sankyo which continues to demonstrate its commitment to deliver higher shareholder returns through aggressive share buybacks.

Sibling Conflict Between Yoon Sang-Hyun (Brother) And Yoon Yeo-Won (Sister) At Kolmar Group

There is a brewing sibling conflict at the Kolmar Group. Kolmar Holdings and Kolmar BNH have clashed regarding the reorganization of Kolmar BNH’s board of directors.
Yoon Sang-Hyun (brother) wants to shake things up. Yoon Sang-Hyun wants to appoint new members at Kolmar BNH’s BOD but his sister Yoon Yeo-Won is opposing this.
We see a higher upside for Kolmar Holdings. Our base case valuation of Kolmar Holdings is NAV per share of 14,675 won (57.5% upside from current levels).

Part 2: What Could Go Wrong at Chagee (CHA)

By Acid Investments

Last week, I wrote a quick article flagging the seemingly absurd valuation discrepancy of Chagee vis-a-vis beverage peers on the HK stock exchange i.e. Mixue and Guming, as well as Luckin Coffee on the OTC markets.
Chagee currently trades around ~31 (doing extremely poorly on a good day), and at the bottom of its recent trading range; there is no analyst coverage and the firm has yet to report its Q1 25 results so it’s just really stuck in no-man’s land.
I postulated then that delisting risk was an overhang on Chagee, a Chinese ADR, but lo and behold, it appears that the market has shrugged off a large portion of it for the large cap Chinese tech companies.

Trust in Muji Reaps Big Returns

By Michael Causton

Muji continues its impressive growth streak both at home and abroad – sales in March alone rose 33% in Japan.
Muji has grown in part because of its ability to move into new categories, even cosmetics and food, possible because Muji’s biggest asset is how well it is trusted.
The latest, with significant potential given inbound demand, is Muji Stay which includes its own hotels, rooms in other hotels and inns, as well as house rentals on Airbnb.

Porsche Automobile Holding: Q1 2025, Discount to NAV

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Dividend cut reflects strategic shift: Porsche SE cut its 2024 dividend due to reduced Volkswagen inflows and focus on deleveraging, limiting its near-term appeal as a dividend pass-through holding structure.
Diversification stillsSuperficial: despite claims of expanding into defense and infrastructure, Porsche SE’s portfolio remains 99% tied to Volkswagen and Porsche AG, making its diversification strategy more rhetorical than real.
Discount to NAV remains high: Porsche SE trades at a 33.4% NAV discount, reflecting legal overhangs and structural inefficiencies. Favorable rulings could trigger re-rating if legal risks prove overstated.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

May 15

Daily Brief Financials: Frasers Hospitality Trust, Insignia Financial, Mini Kospi 200 Futures, Hana Financial, Seazen Holdings , J Trust Co Ltd, Mercuria Holdings, Orient Corp, Chime Financial and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP): Frasers Property & TCC Reload Scheme
Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Walks Due To “Macro Uncertainty”. CC Capital’s Still In. For Now
Fraser Hospitality Trust (FHT SP): Frasers Property’s Light Scheme Offer
KRX’s In-House Derivatives Night Session: Schedule, Operational Details & Trading Considerations
Korean Banks; Stick with Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update
Mercuria Holdings (7347 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update
Orient Corp (8585 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Chime Financial, Inc. (CHYM): No Fee Financial Company Filed for IPO, Anticipated June Debut

Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP): Frasers Property & TCC Reload Scheme

Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP) (FHT) has announced a Scheme Implementation Deed was signed for the S-REIT’s privatisation by its current sponsor, Frasers Property Limited.
The Scheme Consideration is S$0.71/unit in cash against the latest adjusted NAV estimate of S$0.63904/unit (vs last NAV of S$0.64160/unit).
Back in September 2022, ~3% of units (~4.7% of minorities) voted against Frasers/TCC’s S$0.70/unit Offer. But only 18.8% of minorities actually voted. That deal just failed.

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Walks Due To “Macro Uncertainty”. CC Capital’s Still In. For Now

You could see this coming. With due diligence expected to close on the 15th May, Bain has notified Insignia Financial (IFL AU) it won’t proceed due to macro uncertainties.
Discussions remain ongoing with CC Capital. No fixed timeline on those talks, although it appears negotiations will extend beyond the 15th May.
NBIOs were not an ideal place to hide amid Trump’s trade war. They still aren’t. Insignia is down 14.9% as I type.

Fraser Hospitality Trust (FHT SP): Frasers Property’s Light Scheme Offer

Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP) announced a scheme privatisation from Frasers Property Ltd (FPL SP) at S$0.71 cash and permitted distributions (estimated at S$0.0086 per unit).
The 2022 scheme failed because it narrowly missed the 75% approval threshold. The current offer is light compared to the 2022 offer in several ways.
Emerging retail opposition could make satisfying the headcount test challenging. The offer has not been declared final, and a bump is possible.

KRX’s In-House Derivatives Night Session: Schedule, Operational Details & Trading Considerations

By Sanghyun Park

KRX’s night-time derivatives market goes live Monday, June 9. With Eurex ties ending June 5, this shift to in-house trading could bring flow and liquidity changes worth planning for.
KRX is doubling its night session lineup from 5 to 10 products, adding KOSDAQ 150 futures/options, Mini KOSPI 200 options, and 3- and 10-year KTB futures.
KRX is tightening overall price limits for night sessions but doubling real-time order bands—aiming to curb big swings while keeping trades flowing smoothly despite thinner liquidity.

Korean Banks; Stick with Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)

By Victor Galliano

Our weighted metrics of share valuations, returns, capital adequacy and credit quality feed into a scorecard matrix; we look for opportunities where the risks are well discounted in current valuations
Woori Financial Group (316140 KS) remains the stand-out in terms of our matrix; this is based on valuation, dividend yield, and its superior credit quality relative to its peers
Hana Financial is second from top in our scorecard due to its attractive PBV ratio versus RoE, healthy dividend yield and sound credit quality; management should deliver improved medium-term returns

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group, Softbank Group
In the US, the April CPI came in below expectations for the third straight month at 2.3% y-o-y (2.4% e / 2.4% p) and 0.2% m-o-m (0.3% e / -0.1% p). Core CPI (excluding food and energy) stood at 2.8% y-o-y (2.8% e / 2.8% p) and 0.2% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.1% p).
Treasuries were largely steady yesterday, as supply pressure from corporate issuances offset the softer than expected April CPI print.

J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update

Operating revenue declined by JPY897mn YoY to JPY30.7bn, with mixed performance across regional financial and real estate businesses.
Operating profit increased by JPY2.4bn YoY to JPY2.1bn, driven by various segment improvements and damage compensation income.
J Trust plans to repurchase up to 4,000,000 shares, with a maximum acquisition cost of JPY1.5bn.

Mercuria Holdings (7347 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update

Operating revenue declined 15.4% YoY to JPY852mn, with a gross profit increase of 24.0% YoY to JPY712mn.
Recurring loss narrowed to JPY111mn due to a JPY138mn gross profit increase, despite higher SG&A expenses.
The company launched a “Structured Equity Investment Strategy” and invested in a Vietnam real estate project.

Orient Corp (8585 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Operating revenue increased by JPY16.2bn due to growth in core businesses and newly consolidated subsidiaries, despite rising expenses.
The company forecasts FY03/26 operating revenue of JPY250.0bn, with a focus on growth businesses and managing financial expenses.
Orico’s new medium-term plan aims to enhance digital technology use, customer-centric models, and achieve a P/B ratio above 1.0.

Chime Financial, Inc. (CHYM): No Fee Financial Company Filed for IPO, Anticipated June Debut

By IPO Boutique

Chime Financial officially filed their S-1 with the SEC with an anticipated June debut.
Chime’s valuation peaked at $25 billion during its Series G round in August 2021.
Revenue: For the three months ended March 31, 2025 the company earned $518.7m in revenue marking a year-over-year increase of 32.3% from the prior year ($391.9m)

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

May 14

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Thematic Report: DIIs Surpass FIIs Holdings in India; A Look at Their Sectoral Bets and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Thematic Report: DIIs Surpass FIIs Holdings in India; A Look at Their Sectoral Bets
Ohayo Japan | Tech Sparks Rally
Key Indicator Updates: Semi Sales, WFE Forecast, Latest Taiwan Monthlies & A Blow Out April For TSMC
Japan Morning Connection: US Opening Doors to Greater UAE/Saudi Chip Sales Driving Tech and Semis
Monday Delight: 12/05/25
[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/1810 HK/ZK US/LKNCY US/Macro/New Energy Vehicles
[IO Fundamentals 2025/19] U.S.-China Trade Truce Lifts Sentiment and IO Inventories Decline
Charted Insight: How the Digital Boom Is Driving the Green Energy Revolution?
[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:JD US/3690 HK/700 HK/1024 HK/BILI US/BIDU US/BABA US

Thematic Report: DIIs Surpass FIIs Holdings in India; A Look at Their Sectoral Bets

Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) surpassed Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) in Nifty-500 shareholding for the first time in March 2025, signalling a market shift.
We delve into their sectoral bets, where both FII and DII flows moved in unfiorm direction
This shift means more sustainable flows for Indian markets, which can cushion them during a volatile environment.

Ohayo Japan | Tech Sparks Rally

By Mark Chadwick

The Nasdaq jumped 1.61% to 19,010, driven by a 5.6% surge in Nvidia after news it would supply 18,000 AI chips to Saudi Arabia
Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman signed a “strategic economic partnership” deal. White House announced a $600 billion investment commitment from Saudi Arabia into the U.S. economy
April’s CPI showed consumer prices rising at a 2.3% annual rate, the slowest since February 2021, indicating cooling inflation; the report preceded Trump’s tariff pause.

Key Indicator Updates: Semi Sales, WFE Forecast, Latest Taiwan Monthlies & A Blow Out April For TSMC

By William Keating

Global semiconductor sales for the month of March 2025 amounted to $55.9 billion, up 1.8% MoM and up 21.8% YoY
TSMC last week announced that revenue for the month of April amounted to NT$349.57 billion, up 22.2% MoM, up 48.1% YoY and a all time record monthly high
The latest monthly Taiwan semi revenues show little signs of a semi slowdown. Lagging edge remains sluggish, wafer inventories are still too high but leading edge continues to rule

Japan Morning Connection: US Opening Doors to Greater UAE/Saudi Chip Sales Driving Tech and Semis

By Andrew Jackson

Trump whipping up interest in all things AI and data center over his state visit to Saudi.
Pharma giving back yesterdays rebound with risks remaining over Trump’s planned pricing cuts.
Kokusai Electric may continue moving higher post-numbers as a potential NKY225 inclusion candidate.

Monday Delight: 12/05/25

By Contrarian Cashflows

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.

Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.

If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/1810 HK/ZK US/LKNCY US/Macro/New Energy Vehicles

By Eric Wen

BEKE US: Post-May Holiday Slowdown in Existing Home Transactions, Stabilized New Home Sales. (/)
1810 HK : Several Xiaomi Car Owners Demand Refunds (-)
ZK US: Zeekr Launches Channel Reform, Introduces Agent-Based Partnership Model(+)

[IO Fundamentals 2025/19] U.S.-China Trade Truce Lifts Sentiment and IO Inventories Decline

By Amrutha Raj

A 90-day mutual tariff rollback between the U.S. and China has boosted global sentiment, with iron ore futures jumping nearly 3% on hopes of eased trade friction.
Consumer and producer prices in China continued to fall in April, highlighting persistent deflationary pressures and unresolved structural challenges despite ongoing policy support.
Portside iron ore inventories fell in early May, suggesting robust mill demand and potential price support, though risks remain if end-user consumption fails to keep pace.

Charted Insight: How the Digital Boom Is Driving the Green Energy Revolution?

One search on Google Gemini or ChatGPT in terms of watts is 10 times more intensive than a plain Google search today.
AI is fueling energy demand, which currently accounts for just 1.5% of total demand, may outpace the growth of energy demand for all the sectors
AI, along with data centres, can also be utilised in effective use of energy

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:JD US/3690 HK/700 HK/1024 HK/BILI US/BIDU US/BABA US

By Ying Pan

JD US/3690 HK:Both JD and Metiuan Raise Standards for Premium Food Delivery (+)
700 HK/1024 HK: Tencent Releases Multimodal Video Generation AI Model Hunyuan Custom (+/-)
BILI US: Bilibili Launches New AI Advertising Tool “Insight Agent” (+)

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

May 14

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, CCB, Jd
KRX Short Interest Weekly (May 9th): SK Hynix, Kakao, Samsung Electronics, Hybe, Hanwha Ind Sol

HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, CCB, Jd

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 2nd.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Baba (9988 HK), CCB (939 HK), Jd (9618 HK).

KRX Short Interest Weekly (May 9th): SK Hynix, Kakao, Samsung Electronics, Hybe, Hanwha Ind Sol

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of May 9th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD6.4bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in SK Hynix, Kakao, Samsung Electronics, Hybe, Hanwha Ind Sol, Lig Nex1.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

May 14

Daily Brief ECM: POSCO Future M: A Rights Offering Capital Raise of 1.1 Trillion Won and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

POSCO Future M: A Rights Offering Capital Raise of 1.1 Trillion Won
GENDA Placement – Good Track Record & Sort off Well Flagged but Relatively Large
Unpacking Posco Future M’s Rights Offering Disclosed After Market Close Today
Unisound Pre-IPO: Growing Steadily but Burning Cash
Klarna IPO Valuation Analysis: Don’t Expect a Premium Multiple Relative to Affirm Holdings
Busy Ming Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Boxihe Outdoor Sports Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Pre-IPO Xiamen Jihong Technology (PHIP Updates) – Lack of Sustainable Growth Logic
Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO First Take: Good News Is Also Bad News

POSCO Future M: A Rights Offering Capital Raise of 1.1 Trillion Won

Posco Future M (003670 KS) announced today that it plans to complete a rights offering capital raise of 1.1 trillion won.
The capital raise will involve 11.483 million new shares, representing 14.8% of current outstanding shares. The expected rights offering price is 95,800 won, which is 15.8% lower than current price.
We have a Negative view on POSCO Future M and this capital raise, which is likely to have a negative impact on its shares due to the dilution risk.

GENDA Placement – Good Track Record & Sort off Well Flagged but Relatively Large

By Sumeet Singh

GENDA (9166 JP), along with a selling shareholder, is looking to raise around US$190m to partly fund its M&A.
Genda develops and operates amusement facilities in Japan, primarily operating under its Genda GiGO Entertainment subsidiary.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Unpacking Posco Future M’s Rights Offering Disclosed After Market Close Today

By Sanghyun Park

The pricing’s standard—20% discount, 14.82% dilution. First-round price on June 12, final on July 16. The 20% discount could offer a bigger arb window than Samsung SDI or Hanwha Aero.
Posco Holdings confirmed full participation, taking half of the offering (500B+ KRW). With the ESOP in play, only 40% (400B KRW) remains, limiting potential trading upside despite the 20% discount.
Future M’s down 8% in after-hours, Holdings 3.5%. The sharp drop follows no deal leaks and sector concerns, suggesting more downside tomorrow, with the price gap key for day-night trading.

Unisound Pre-IPO: Growing Steadily but Burning Cash

By Nicholas Tan

Unisound AI Technology (1053075D CH) is looking to raise at least US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO.
The firm specializes primarily in speech recognition and text-to-speech capabilities
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Klarna IPO Valuation Analysis: Don’t Expect a Premium Multiple Relative to Affirm Holdings

By Andrei Zakharov

Klarna, a leading BNPL player in Europe, will try to push ahead with IPO in the second half of the year. The fintech unicorn plans to raise up to ~$1B.
Klarna picked a not great time to take the company public, keeping in mind negative impact of Trump’s tariffs on BNPL players in the U.S. and European Union.
I believe the company may price its IPO above last round valuation of ~$6.7B led by Sequoia Capital, Silver Lake, CPPIB, and Mubadala Investment Company, among others.

Busy Ming Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

Busy Ming Group Co., Ltd. (BMG) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by GS, Huatai, and DB.
BMG is a leading F&B retailer in China, offering value-for-money products which are priced c.25% lower than the average for similar products available in the supermarket channel.
It mainly operates under a franchised model and focuses mostly on third-tier cities and below.

Boxihe Outdoor Sports Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

Boxihe Outdoor Sports Group (BOS HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and CITIC.
BOS aspires to become a renowned leading outdoor brand globally, committed to providing high-performance outdoor garments and equipment.
The firm began operations in 2012, with its core brand, Pelliot. Through Pelliot, BOS offered a wide range of products.

Pre-IPO Xiamen Jihong Technology (PHIP Updates) – Lack of Sustainable Growth Logic

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

In order to maintain revenue growth, it’s necessary to continuously increase advertising investment. However, due to fierce market competition, the ROI from advertising is declining, leading to weak profitability.
The big concern here is once Jihong’s e-commerce business loses its growth momentum, future performance will inevitably enter a downward trend. Jihong lacks a sustainable growth logic for the future.
Jihong’s valuation could be about RMB3.2-4.3 billion, based on the valuation of cross-border social e-commerce business (P/E of 15-20x) + the valuation of traditional paper packaging business (P/E of 10-12x).

Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO First Take: Good News Is Also Bad News

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Innogen, a China-based near-commercial stage biotech company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. CITIC Securities and CICC are the joint sponsors.
In this note, we look at the company’s product pipeline, its pre-IPO investors, and management.
Our initial view is that the stock will rely heavily on its sales ramp. Yet we are not seeing signs that the company is at full throttle post-NMPA approval.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

May 14

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): MAC Musings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): MAC Musings
[Japan Activism] Murakami Owns ~42% and Company Announces 31.3% Buyback
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Trump’s Executive Order Unlikely to Trigger the MAC Clause
Webjet Group (WJL AU): BGH Is the Mystery Buyer and Seeks a Controlling Stake at A$0.80

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): MAC Musings

Back on the 21st Feb 2025, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), a leader in dermatology and women’s health, entered into a Scheme with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals, at A$7.40/share.
The transaction is progressing – the HSR Act condition was satisfied last week. A Scheme Booklet should be issued shortly, with an expected vote mid-June and late-June/early-July implementation.
Shares declined 3.1% yesterday over concerns a MAC could be triggered on the back of the Trump’s executive order on pharma. The impact is likely mixed, but leans neutral.

[Japan Activism] Murakami Owns ~42% and Company Announces 31.3% Buyback

With earnings today (which beat guidance), Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced upbeat guidance for next year, a very large dividend hike from ¥130/share to ¥230/share, and a Very Large Buyback.
The buyback is ¥20bn (vs ¥47bn market cap) or 3.5mm shares (31.3%). It starts 2 June. Astute Murakami trackers may recognise the potential pattern here.
If the company buys back all 3.5mm shares at just below book, EPS of ¥756 = 12.9% ROE and PER of 7.8x. Even up 30% from here that isn’t super-rich.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Trump’s Executive Order Unlikely to Trigger the MAC Clause

On Monday, President Trump signed an executive order requiring drugmakers to start offering US patients the lowest price for a drug in a peer country (the Most Favoured Nation price).
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) is exposed as US accounts for 84% of revenue. I estimate that the average price reduction should be <16% so that the MAC is not triggered.
However, the MAC is not triggered if it arises “from any change in any law, regulation or rule of a Government Agency”, which should capture the Trump order.

Webjet Group (WJL AU): BGH Is the Mystery Buyer and Seeks a Controlling Stake at A$0.80

Webjet Group (WJL AU) disclosed a non-binding offer from BGH to acquire a controlling interest at A$0.80 per share, a 10.1% discount to the last close.
BGH was also disclosed as the mystery buyer of the 5% stake on 8 May. BGH currently represents 10.76% of outstanding shares.
The offer will likely be structured as a takeover offer with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. It is unattractive, and the Board should negotiate better terms.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

May 14

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: [Japan Buyback] Sankyo (6417) – Starts Buying Bigly. Again. Re-Levered It Has A Super-High ROE and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

[Japan Buyback] Sankyo (6417) – Starts Buying Bigly. Again. Re-Levered It Has A Super-High ROE
Tencent Music (TME): 1Q25, Unnoticed Growth Continued, 80% Upside
Automotive & Industrial Semiconductors Part 2: Is It the Bottom, Finally? Time to Buy?
SMBC’s Strategic Entry into Yes Bank: A Look at the Backstory and Future
A Pair Trade Between LG Electronics and LG Display
DKSH Malaysia: Excellent 1st Quarter Performance
China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Leading the Low-Cost, Low-Carbon Aluminium Shift
Short Tata Motors: Challenges Ahead
Alfen Beheer BV – What’s News in Amsterdam
Full-year FY03/25 flash update and upward revision to performance targets in the medium-term business plan

[Japan Buyback] Sankyo (6417) – Starts Buying Bigly. Again. Re-Levered It Has A Super-High ROE

On 12 May 2025, Sankyo Co Ltd (6417 JP) announced earnings (Revenue -3.7%yoy, OP +1.5%, Net Profit +0.4%) with guidance for March 2026 showing Revs, OP, and NP all falling.
OP and NP would fall 14.4% and 18.5% respectively. The dividend is expected to fall ¥10 to ¥90/share which would be a 41.6% payout ratio.
The company also announced a BIG BUYBACK – Up to ¥60bn buying up to 30.0mm shares (13.66%), starting today and going through 31 March 2026.

Tencent Music (TME): 1Q25, Unnoticed Growth Continued, 80% Upside

By Ming Lu

The 1Q25 result is quite healthy, but the shrinking minor business, social entertainment, covers the fact.
The main businesses grew by two digits and the operating margin continued to grow by 28% YoY in 1Q25.
We believe the stock has an upside of 83% and a price target of US$26 for the yearend 2025.

Automotive & Industrial Semiconductors Part 2: Is It the Bottom, Finally? Time to Buy?

By Nicolas Baratte

Revenues are hitting the bottom in 1Q25, most firms mention sequential growth in 2Q, sometimes YoY growth. Trends depend on specific firms, mentions of both Auto and Industrial recovering.
Gross / operating profit recovery could take a bit longer as inventory and price concessions could negate revenue growth for a couple of quarters.
2 categories of stocks: the cheap ones (NXP, Onsemi, Renesas, STMicro) and the expensive stocks (Analog Devices, Infineon, Microchip, Texas Instruments). I’d go with Renesas and Texas Instruments.

SMBC’s Strategic Entry into Yes Bank: A Look at the Backstory and Future

SMBC, a major Japanese bank, is buying a 20% stake in Yes Bank for INR 13,483 crore, marking a significant move towards strengthening Yes Bank’s recovery and future growth.
It provides SMBC direct access to India’s growing banking sector and potential for strategic collaboration.
The partnership enhances Yes Bank’s stability, governance, and access to global markets, positioning it for further growth. SMBC’s involvement could pave the way for future capital support and operational improvements.

A Pair Trade Between LG Electronics and LG Display

In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between LG Electronics (066570 KS) (long) and LG Display (034220 KS) (short).
LG Display is likely to face greater margin pressures than LG Electronics this year, which could lead a bigger consensus estimates downward revisions for LG Display than LG Electronics.
Both LG Electronics and LG Display are trading at 0.6x P/B multiples. Given LG Electronics’ much higher ROE vs LG Display, LG Electronics should be trading at higher valuation multiples.

DKSH Malaysia: Excellent 1st Quarter Performance

By Punit Khanna

Revenue up 7% Y on Y basis. PBT and PAT up 19%
Operating profit of both consumer and healthcare business was up 15 & 18% respectively
Cash flow from operations up by 11% and working capital improved

China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Leading the Low-Cost, Low-Carbon Aluminium Shift

By Rahul Jain

China Hongqiao has delivered steady ~6 Mt volumes, ~25% EBITDA CAGR, and 15–27% ROCE over the last three years, supported by integration and energy transition gains.
China Hongqiao is relocating 4 Mt of capacity to Yunnan to tap low-carbon hydropower, advancing its green aluminium transition.
China Hongqiao offers strong earnings visibility backed by low-cost operations, while trading at attractive valuations relative to peers.

Short Tata Motors: Challenges Ahead

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) delivered a decent operational performance in Q4 FY25, with a flat topline and margin recovery, led by robust performance in the Jaguar Land Rover business.
While the Q4 FY25 performance was steady, we expect near-term results to remain muted.
Therefore, we present a case for shorting Tata Motors in the near term and outlook on individual segments.

Alfen Beheer BV – What’s News in Amsterdam

By The IDEA!

In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | Delhaize aims for market leadership in online groceries in Belgium • ASM International | looking for bolt-on acquisitions • Heineken | row with Jumbo not only on price gap but also on lower discount • InPost | signs contract with ASOS for D+1 OOH delivery in the UK • TKH Group | slow start of the year as expected, reiterates FY25 guidance • Alfen | revises both FY25 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance downward • Kendrion | Mobility continues its strong growth, Industrial mixed performance

Full-year FY03/25 flash update and upward revision to performance targets in the medium-term business plan