Daily Briefs

The review period for the June rebalance of the HSTECH INDEX ended on 31 March, the changes will be announced on 16 May and implemented on 6 June.
Following the launch of the God’s Eye ADAS, BYD (1211 HK) could become eligible for index inclusion after meeting the Autonomous theme and Innovation screening.
The inclusion of BYD (1211 HK) in the index could result in China Literature (772 HK) being deleted from the index in June.

CATL (3750 HK) H-Share IPO: Fast Entry to Global Indices Is Touch & Go

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) could raise up to US$5.1bn in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
There is a huge allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That significantly reduces float and the probability of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
CATL (3750 HK) will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 16 June following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.

Canvest (1381 HK): Buy Here, And On Weakness

By David Blennerhassett

Ahead of the 12th May shareholder to vote on Grandblue’s Offer, recent price action in Canvest (1381 HK) has been odd, with considerable selling volume.
By all accounts, a chunk of that selling was brought about by an event desk in Singapore shutting down. Elsewhere, via numerous inquiries, I see nothing deal specific.
In recent positive developments, AEP (3.62% of shares out) is supportive; there are no material updates in s329 announcements; and I see nothing of note when inspecting the shareholder register.

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Strong Outperformance for STAR50 Changes

With the review period complete, we forecast 1 change for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 4 changes for the STAR100 Index in June.
We estimate turnover of 2.26% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 5.05% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated round-trip trade is CNY 8.1bn (US$1.11bn).
There are multiple stocks that are forecast adds or deletes for other indices and the passive flows will be a lot larger than just for the STAR50/STAR100 indices.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): MAC Musings

By David Blennerhassett

Back on the 21st Feb 2025, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), a leader in dermatology and women’s health, entered into a Scheme with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals, at A$7.40/share.
The transaction is progressing – the HSR Act condition was satisfied last week. A Scheme Booklet should be issued shortly, with an expected vote mid-June and late-June/early-July implementation.
Shares declined 3.1% yesterday over concerns a MAC could be triggered on the back of the Trump’s executive order on pharma. The impact is likely mixed, but leans neutral.

[Japan Activism] Murakami Owns ~42% and Company Announces 31.3% Buyback

With earnings today (which beat guidance), Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced upbeat guidance for next year, a very large dividend hike from ¥130/share to ¥230/share, and a Very Large Buyback.
The buyback is ¥20bn (vs ¥47bn market cap) or 3.5mm shares (31.3%). It starts 2 June. Astute Murakami trackers may recognise the potential pattern here.
If the company buys back all 3.5mm shares at just below book, EPS of ¥756 = 12.9% ROE and PER of 7.8x. Even up 30% from here that isn’t super-rich.

[Japan Buyback] Sankyo (6417) – Starts Buying Bigly. Again. Re-Levered It Has A Super-High ROE

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

On 12 May 2025, Sankyo Co Ltd (6417 JP) announced earnings (Revenue -3.7%yoy, OP +1.5%, Net Profit +0.4%) with guidance for March 2026 showing Revs, OP, and NP all falling.
OP and NP would fall 14.4% and 18.5% respectively. The dividend is expected to fall ¥10 to ¥90/share which would be a 41.6% payout ratio.
The company also announced a BIG BUYBACK – Up to ¥60bn buying up to 30.0mm shares (13.66%), starting today and going through 31 March 2026.

CATL A/H Listing – More like ADR Secondary Listing than an A/H Listing – Performance & Subscription

By Sumeet Singh

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) , one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise around US$4bn in its H-share listing.
CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing and how it compares to some of the past listings.

GENDA Placement – Good Track Record & Sort off Well Flagged but Relatively Large

By Sumeet Singh

GENDA (9166 JP), along with a selling shareholder, is looking to raise around US$190m to partly fund its M&A.
Genda develops and operates amusement facilities in Japan, primarily operating under its Genda GiGO Entertainment subsidiary.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

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May 14

Daily Brief Indonesia: Criterium Energy and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Stepping on the gas

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Stepping on the gas

By Auctus Advisors

• The staged development of gas discoveries at Tungkal is the primary driver of near-term growth.
Assuming flat oil production, bringing just two gas discoveries online could enable Criterium to triple output to ~3 mboe/d and triple 2P reserves by early 2027 • The first discovery to be developed, SE MGH (15 bcf 2C resources), is expected to see resource conversion to reserves in 2025.
In early 3Q25, the existing well—previously tested at 8 mmcf/d—will be re-tested, with initial production of 5-7 mmcf/d anticipated by 1Q26.

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May 14

Daily Brief South Korea: Posco Future M, LG Display, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

POSCO Future M: A Rights Offering Capital Raise of 1.1 Trillion Won
Unpacking Posco Future M’s Rights Offering Disclosed After Market Close Today
A Pair Trade Between LG Electronics and LG Display
KOSPI 200 Tactical Outlook: Waiting for the June Elections

POSCO Future M: A Rights Offering Capital Raise of 1.1 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim

Posco Future M (003670 KS) announced today that it plans to complete a rights offering capital raise of 1.1 trillion won.
The capital raise will involve 11.483 million new shares, representing 14.8% of current outstanding shares. The expected rights offering price is 95,800 won, which is 15.8% lower than current price.
We have a Negative view on POSCO Future M and this capital raise, which is likely to have a negative impact on its shares due to the dilution risk.

Unpacking Posco Future M’s Rights Offering Disclosed After Market Close Today

By Sanghyun Park

The pricing’s standard—20% discount, 14.82% dilution. First-round price on June 12, final on July 16. The 20% discount could offer a bigger arb window than Samsung SDI or Hanwha Aero.
Posco Holdings confirmed full participation, taking half of the offering (500B+ KRW). With the ESOP in play, only 40% (400B KRW) remains, limiting potential trading upside despite the 20% discount.
Future M’s down 8% in after-hours, Holdings 3.5%. The sharp drop follows no deal leaks and sector concerns, suggesting more downside tomorrow, with the price gap key for day-night trading.

A Pair Trade Between LG Electronics and LG Display

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between LG Electronics (066570 KS) (long) and LG Display (034220 KS) (short).
LG Display is likely to face greater margin pressures than LG Electronics this year, which could lead a bigger consensus estimates downward revisions for LG Display than LG Electronics.
Both LG Electronics and LG Display are trading at 0.6x P/B multiples. Given LG Electronics’ much higher ROE vs LG Display, LG Electronics should be trading at higher valuation multiples.

KOSPI 200 Tactical Outlook: Waiting for the June Elections

By Nico Rosti

In just three weeks, on June 3rd, South Korea will hold an early presidential election.
The KOSPI 200 INDEX on Tuesday closed at 347.17, entering deeply overbought territory based on our time and price quantitative models.
Whether the index rallies into the election and then declines, or starts selling off ahead of the vote, our tactical stance is unchanged: we recommend short exposure or appropriate hedging.

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May 14

Daily Brief Thailand: SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

Thai Rubber Production To Grow In 2025, But Rains, Prices Can Spoil Party

Thai Rubber Production To Grow In 2025, But Rains, Prices Can Spoil Party

By Vinod Nedumudy

Initial projections hint at 4.93 million ton output in 2025
Pre-tariff war Q1 2025 reports robust export returns
Highest earnings from exports in 8 years at US$577.1 million in Feb

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May 14

Daily Brief Australia: Mayne Pharma, Webjet Group, Readcloud Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): MAC Musings
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Trump’s Executive Order Unlikely to Trigger the MAC Clause
Webjet Group (WJL AU): BGH Is the Mystery Buyer and Seeks a Controlling Stake at A$0.80
Readcloud Ltd – VET-in-schools flourishing

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): MAC Musings

By David Blennerhassett

Back on the 21st Feb 2025, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), a leader in dermatology and women’s health, entered into a Scheme with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals, at A$7.40/share.
The transaction is progressing – the HSR Act condition was satisfied last week. A Scheme Booklet should be issued shortly, with an expected vote mid-June and late-June/early-July implementation.
Shares declined 3.1% yesterday over concerns a MAC could be triggered on the back of the Trump’s executive order on pharma. The impact is likely mixed, but leans neutral.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Trump’s Executive Order Unlikely to Trigger the MAC Clause

By Arun George

On Monday, President Trump signed an executive order requiring drugmakers to start offering US patients the lowest price for a drug in a peer country (the Most Favoured Nation price).
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) is exposed as US accounts for 84% of revenue. I estimate that the average price reduction should be <16% so that the MAC is not triggered.
However, the MAC is not triggered if it arises “from any change in any law, regulation or rule of a Government Agency”, which should capture the Trump order.

Webjet Group (WJL AU): BGH Is the Mystery Buyer and Seeks a Controlling Stake at A$0.80

By Arun George

Webjet Group (WJL AU) disclosed a non-binding offer from BGH to acquire a controlling interest at A$0.80 per share, a 10.1% discount to the last close.
BGH was also disclosed as the mystery buyer of the 5% stake on 8 May. BGH currently represents 10.76% of outstanding shares.
The offer will likely be structured as a takeover offer with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. It is unattractive, and the Board should negotiate better terms.

Readcloud Ltd – VET-in-schools flourishing

ReadCloud Limited (ASX:RCL) services the education and training sectors through the provision of digital learning content, proprietary interactive technology, and support for students and educators.
The company released a trading update and its 4C quarterly activities report for the March quarter (Q2 FY25 – September year-end).
The update contained numerous positive developments indicating continued momentum in FY25 and de-risks the financial performance for the balance of the year.

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May 14

Daily Brief United States: Base Oil, Klarna Group, Affirm Holdings , Cotton, Bone Biologics , Zephyr Energy, Dogwood Therapeutics, Golden Matrix Group Inc, BioStem Technologies , Protalix BioTherapeutics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 12 May
Klarna IPO Valuation Analysis: Don’t Expect a Premium Multiple Relative to Affirm Holdings
Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) Financial Factsheet – Growth, Valuation & Peers
Will the India/Pakistan Conflict Push Cotton Prices Higher?
BBLG: Expense Control Key as Trials Continue
Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): Private equity funding unlocks growth in the Williston and provides external validation
DWTX: Phase 2b Trial in Chemotherapy Induced Neuropathic Pain Underway
GMGI’s leverage ratio is down to 2Q24 levels & since the consummation of the Meridianbet transaction
BSEM: Growth Continues to Impress
PLX: First Quarter Results

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 12 May

By Iain Pocock

Asia’s base oils demand likely to ease as signs of weaker-than-expected lube consumption incentivize blenders to trim inventory levels.
Prospect of seasonal slowdown in consumption starting in a few weeks would coincide with expected completion of wave of plant maintenance work, boosting supply.
Firm base oils margins, prospect of weaker fundamentals and low crude oil prices add to incentive to procure sufficient volumes just to meet term commitments.

Klarna IPO Valuation Analysis: Don’t Expect a Premium Multiple Relative to Affirm Holdings

By Andrei Zakharov

Klarna, a leading BNPL player in Europe, will try to push ahead with IPO in the second half of the year. The fintech unicorn plans to raise up to ~$1B.
Klarna picked a not great time to take the company public, keeping in mind negative impact of Trump’s tariffs on BNPL players in the U.S. and European Union.
I believe the company may price its IPO above last round valuation of ~$6.7B led by Sequoia Capital, Silver Lake, CPPIB, and Mubadala Investment Company, among others.

Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) Financial Factsheet – Growth, Valuation & Peers

By Garvit Bhandari

AFRM posted solid Q3 2025 results with revenue growing of 35.9% YOY and in line with its stated guidance range. The adjusted operating income margin expanded by ~850 bps YOY.
Q425 guidance was muted with implied revenue growth of 26% at the mid-point. This is much lower compared to 40.7%, 46.6% and 35.9% growth during Q1, Q2 and Q3 2025.
AFRM’s valuation remains rich at 5.1x 2025E P/B and 25.2x 2025E P/E multiple, at a premium to the peer group average. This caps any meaningful upside from the current levels.

Will the India/Pakistan Conflict Push Cotton Prices Higher?

By The Commodity Report

YTD our absolute return strategy is up 10,2% Will the India/Pakistan Conflict Push Cotton Prices Higher?
India is an important exporting and producing country of cotton.
According to the latest USDA data, India is the second-largest cotton producer behind China.

BBLG: Expense Control Key as Trials Continue

Bone Biologics is pursuing a better and more effective way of dealing with back pain requiring surgery by developing bone regeneration in spinal fusion using the recombinant human protein known as NELL-1/DBX, or NB1.
The company released its 1Q2025 financial results that showed good cash, low debt and good cost controls.
The company continues with human trials, and we are looking forward to the initial results.

Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): Private equity funding unlocks growth in the Williston and provides external validation

By Auctus Advisors

• Zephyr has secured a US$100 mm drilling funding agreement with a US private equity firm to enable growth in its non-operated asset portfolio in the Williston Basin.
The structure appears to be similar to a “DrillCo”, in which the investor will fund up to 100% of Zephyr’s drillex on a case by case basis.
The agreement covers drilling on future well acquisitions but also could apply to new wells proposed on the Zephyr’s existing acreage.

DWTX: Phase 2b Trial in Chemotherapy Induced Neuropathic Pain Underway

On May 8, 2025, Dogwood Therapeutics, Inc. announced financial results for the first quarter of 2025 and provided a business update.
The company recently commenced a Phase 2b trial of Halneuron for the treatment of Chemotherapy Induced Neuropathic Pain (CINP).
An interim data readout is expected in the fourth quarter of 2025.

GMGI’s leverage ratio is down to 2Q24 levels & since the consummation of the Meridianbet transaction

GMGI’s leverage ratio is down to 2Q24 levels & since the consummation of the Meridianbet transaction, GMGI has reduced the consideration payable to Meridianbet’s former owners to ~$34.9m from $70.0m, through payments in cash and shares.
GMGI ended 1Q25 with cash and equivalents just shy of $30m to support growth initiatives, including strategic M&A and share repurchases.
GMGI expects full-year 2025 revenue of $190m-$195m, up about 26% to 29% y/y, as it continues to invest in technology, content and new licenses to drive growth and shareholder value.

BSEM: Growth Continues to Impress

BioStem Technologies is a leading innovator focused on harnessing the natural properties of perinatal tissue in the development, manufacture, and commercialization of allografts for regenerative therapies.
The company announced its 1Q2025 preliminary financial results.
The company continues to execute at a high level by posting record 1Q revenue and continued growth in earnings.

PLX: First Quarter Results

Protalix is a clinical and commercial pharmaceutical company using its proprietary ProCellEx plant-based expression system to pro duce thera peutic proteins for global markets.
The company has two commer cialized products, Elelyso that is marketed by Fiocruz in Brazil & Pfizer in the rest of the world for Gaucher Disease and Elfabrio which was approved in May 2023.
Chiesi Rare Disease will commercialize Elfabrio globally.

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May 14

Daily Brief China: Pop Mart International Group L, Tencent Music, Dawning Information Industry C, Tencent, Unisound AI Technology, China Hongqiao, Busy Ming Group, Boxihe Outdoor Sports Group, Tokyu Fudosan Holdings, Xiamen Jihong Technology Lt and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for June25
Tencent Music (TME): 1Q25, Unnoticed Growth Continued, 80% Upside
SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Potential Changes in June
Tencent (700.HK) Q1 Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior
Unisound Pre-IPO: Growing Steadily but Burning Cash
China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Leading the Low-Cost, Low-Carbon Aluminium Shift
Busy Ming Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Boxihe Outdoor Sports Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Asia Real Estate Tracker (13-May-2025): ESR, Tokyu Land, Hulic break ground on SG shed
Pre-IPO Xiamen Jihong Technology (PHIP Updates) – Lack of Sustainable Growth Logic

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for June25

Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 6 June.
With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 1.9% with 3 stocks being capped and FAF changes for a few stocks due to a methodology change for Secondary Listings.
We highlight 7 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. Everything depends on the index committee, and we would not be surprised by zero changes.

Tencent Music (TME): 1Q25, Unnoticed Growth Continued, 80% Upside

By Ming Lu

The 1Q25 result is quite healthy, but the shrinking minor business, social entertainment, covers the fact.
The main businesses grew by two digits and the operating margin continued to grow by 28% YoY in 1Q25.
We believe the stock has an upside of 83% and a price target of US$26 for the yearend 2025.

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Potential Changes in June

With the review period complete, there are 2 non-constituents in direct inclusion zone and 4 current constituents in direct deletion zone.
4 changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.7%, leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 21.8bn (US$3bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.
After drifting in a range, the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month. There could be further outperformance as we near the announcement date.

Tencent (700.HK) Q1 Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

By John Ley

Tencent has rallied 17.29% off the April low—against this backdrop, we analyze implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.
Relative to past earnings cycles, current implied vol screens lower across multiple timeframes and spread metrics.
Post-Earnings price behavior reveals some non-intuitive dynamics worthy of consideration.

Unisound Pre-IPO: Growing Steadily but Burning Cash

By Nicholas Tan

Unisound AI Technology (1053075D CH) is looking to raise at least US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO.
The firm specializes primarily in speech recognition and text-to-speech capabilities
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Leading the Low-Cost, Low-Carbon Aluminium Shift

By Rahul Jain

China Hongqiao has delivered steady ~6 Mt volumes, ~25% EBITDA CAGR, and 15–27% ROCE over the last three years, supported by integration and energy transition gains.
China Hongqiao is relocating 4 Mt of capacity to Yunnan to tap low-carbon hydropower, advancing its green aluminium transition.
China Hongqiao offers strong earnings visibility backed by low-cost operations, while trading at attractive valuations relative to peers.

Busy Ming Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

Busy Ming Group Co., Ltd. (BMG) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by GS, Huatai, and DB.
BMG is a leading F&B retailer in China, offering value-for-money products which are priced c.25% lower than the average for similar products available in the supermarket channel.
It mainly operates under a franchised model and focuses mostly on third-tier cities and below.

Boxihe Outdoor Sports Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

Boxihe Outdoor Sports Group (BOS HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and CITIC.
BOS aspires to become a renowned leading outdoor brand globally, committed to providing high-performance outdoor garments and equipment.
The firm began operations in 2012, with its core brand, Pelliot. Through Pelliot, BOS offered a wide range of products.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (13-May-2025): ESR, Tokyu Land, Hulic break ground on SG shed

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

ESR, Tokyu Land, and Hulic have begun construction on a new shed in Singapore, helping to boost the real estate market in the region.
Analysts predict that the drop in the Hong Kong interbank rate will have a positive impact on the market, leading to increased activity.
China has cut housing loan rates to a record low in an effort to stimulate growth in the market, demonstrating proactive measures to support the economy.

Pre-IPO Xiamen Jihong Technology (PHIP Updates) – Lack of Sustainable Growth Logic

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

In order to maintain revenue growth, it’s necessary to continuously increase advertising investment. However, due to fierce market competition, the ROI from advertising is declining, leading to weak profitability.
The big concern here is once Jihong’s e-commerce business loses its growth momentum, future performance will inevitably enter a downward trend. Jihong lacks a sustainable growth logic for the future.
Jihong’s valuation could be about RMB3.2-4.3 billion, based on the valuation of cross-border social e-commerce business (P/E of 15-20x) + the valuation of traditional paper packaging business (P/E of 10-12x).

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May 14

Daily Brief India: Yes Bank, Tata Motors Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

SMBC’s Strategic Entry into Yes Bank: A Look at the Backstory and Future
Short Tata Motors: Challenges Ahead

SMBC’s Strategic Entry into Yes Bank: A Look at the Backstory and Future

By Nimish Maheshwari

SMBC, a major Japanese bank, is buying a 20% stake in Yes Bank for INR 13,483 crore, marking a significant move towards strengthening Yes Bank’s recovery and future growth.
It provides SMBC direct access to India’s growing banking sector and potential for strategic collaboration.
The partnership enhances Yes Bank’s stability, governance, and access to global markets, positioning it for further growth. SMBC’s involvement could pave the way for future capital support and operational improvements.

Short Tata Motors: Challenges Ahead

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) delivered a decent operational performance in Q4 FY25, with a flat topline and margin recovery, led by robust performance in the Jaguar Land Rover business.
While the Q4 FY25 performance was steady, we expect near-term results to remain muted.
Therefore, we present a case for shorting Tata Motors in the near term and outlook on individual segments.

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May 14

Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Q & M Dental Group (Singapore), Sabana Industrial REIT and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

Thai Rubber Production To Grow In 2025, But Rains, Prices Can Spoil Party
Director Filings Across Financials, Real Estate & Singapore’s Largest Private Dental Group
REIT Watch – Industrial S-REITs report NPI growth, but managers are cautious on outlook

Thai Rubber Production To Grow In 2025, But Rains, Prices Can Spoil Party

By Vinod Nedumudy

Initial projections hint at 4.93 million ton output in 2025
Pre-tariff war Q1 2025 reports robust export returns
Highest earnings from exports in 8 years at US$577.1 million in Feb

Director Filings Across Financials, Real Estate & Singapore’s Largest Private Dental Group

By Geoff Howie

Institutions were net buyers of Singapore stocks from May 2 to May 8, with S$123 million inflow, reducing 2025’s net outflow to S$1.61 billion.
United Overseas Bank’s CEO acquired 100,000 shares, increasing total interest to 10.76%, following a S$1.49 billion 1QFY25 net profit.
Q & M Dental increased interest in Aoxin to 50.53% and proposed a secondary listing on Bursa Malaysia.

REIT Watch – Industrial S-REITs report NPI growth, but managers are cautious on outlook

By Geoff Howie

Industrial S-REITs reported growth in net property income due to stable occupancies and positive rental reversions in Q1.
Mapletree Industrial Trust’s FY25 distribution per unit rose 1% due to higher gross revenue and NPI.
ESR Reit’s NPI increased 31.3% in Q1, driven by acquisitions, AEIs, and higher contributions from existing properties.

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May 14

Daily Brief Japan: Mitsui Matsushima, Sankyo Co Ltd, GENDA , Renesas Electronics, Chiba Kogyo Bank, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Tokyo Keiki Inc, Daiichikosho, AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings, Medinet Co Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

[Japan Activism] Murakami Owns ~42% and Company Announces 31.3% Buyback
[Japan Buyback] Sankyo (6417) – Starts Buying Bigly. Again. Re-Levered It Has A Super-High ROE
GENDA Placement – Good Track Record & Sort off Well Flagged but Relatively Large
Automotive & Industrial Semiconductors Part 2: Is It the Bottom, Finally? Time to Buy?
Chiba Kogyo Bank (8337 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): FY25 Went Well; Near Term Headwinds To Keep FY26 Subdued
Full-year FY03/25 flash update and upward revision to performance targets in the medium-term business plan
Daiichikosho (7458 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Medinet Co Ltd (2370 JP): 1H FY09/25 flash update

[Japan Activism] Murakami Owns ~42% and Company Announces 31.3% Buyback

With earnings today (which beat guidance), Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced upbeat guidance for next year, a very large dividend hike from ¥130/share to ¥230/share, and a Very Large Buyback.
The buyback is ¥20bn (vs ¥47bn market cap) or 3.5mm shares (31.3%). It starts 2 June. Astute Murakami trackers may recognise the potential pattern here.
If the company buys back all 3.5mm shares at just below book, EPS of ¥756 = 12.9% ROE and PER of 7.8x. Even up 30% from here that isn’t super-rich.

[Japan Buyback] Sankyo (6417) – Starts Buying Bigly. Again. Re-Levered It Has A Super-High ROE

On 12 May 2025, Sankyo Co Ltd (6417 JP) announced earnings (Revenue -3.7%yoy, OP +1.5%, Net Profit +0.4%) with guidance for March 2026 showing Revs, OP, and NP all falling.
OP and NP would fall 14.4% and 18.5% respectively. The dividend is expected to fall ¥10 to ¥90/share which would be a 41.6% payout ratio.
The company also announced a BIG BUYBACK – Up to ¥60bn buying up to 30.0mm shares (13.66%), starting today and going through 31 March 2026.

GENDA Placement – Good Track Record & Sort off Well Flagged but Relatively Large

By Sumeet Singh

GENDA (9166 JP), along with a selling shareholder, is looking to raise around US$190m to partly fund its M&A.
Genda develops and operates amusement facilities in Japan, primarily operating under its Genda GiGO Entertainment subsidiary.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Automotive & Industrial Semiconductors Part 2: Is It the Bottom, Finally? Time to Buy?

By Nicolas Baratte

Revenues are hitting the bottom in 1Q25, most firms mention sequential growth in 2Q, sometimes YoY growth. Trends depend on specific firms, mentions of both Auto and Industrial recovering.
Gross / operating profit recovery could take a bit longer as inventory and price concessions could negate revenue growth for a couple of quarters.
2 categories of stocks: the cheap ones (NXP, Onsemi, Renesas, STMicro) and the expensive stocks (Analog Devices, Infineon, Microchip, Texas Instruments). I’d go with Renesas and Texas Instruments.

Chiba Kogyo Bank (8337 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Consolidated ordinary income reached JPY56.9bn (+4.3% YoY), with ordinary profit at JPY10.7bn (+4.2% YoY) for FY03/25.
Non-consolidated core gross profit declined 5.4% YoY to JPY37.5bn, while expenses increased JPY597mn YoY to JPY25.3bn.
The capital adequacy ratio improved to 9.18% non-consolidated and 9.19% consolidated, with risk-weighted assets declining.

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): FY25 Went Well; Near Term Headwinds To Keep FY26 Subdued

By Tina Banerjee

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) announced FY25 result, with revenue and operating profit being in-line with guidance. Revenue grew 7.5% YoY, driven by continued strong momentum from Growth and Launch Products.
Takeda guided for its FY26 outlook of lower sales and higher margins, reflecting near term headwinds amid cost control.
Continued strong performance of its Growth and Launch product portfolio, ripe late-stage pipeline, and expected margin improvement from FY26 envisage long-term growth prospect of the company.

Full-year FY03/25 flash update and upward revision to performance targets in the medium-term business plan

From FY03/22 to FY03/24, Q4 revenue accounted for over 30% of full-year revenue, with Q4 operating profit over 80%.
In FY03/25, the company reported revenue of JPY57.7bn (+22.2% YoY) and operating profit of JPY4.9bn (+75.4% YoY).
For FY03/26, the company forecasts revenue of JPY59.6bn (+3.4% YoY) and operating profit of JPY3.9bn (-19.9% YoY).

Daiichikosho (7458 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Revenue grew to JPY153.0bn (+4.3% YoY), with net income rising to JPY18.2bn (+44.6% YoY) due to decreased taxes.
Operating profit declined to JPY17.9bn (-3.5% YoY) due to increased personnel and depreciation expenses from capital investment.
FY03/26 forecasts revenue of JPY162.7bn (+6.3% YoY) with operating profit remaining flat due to higher costs.

AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

The company reported FY03/25 revenue of JPY208.4bn (+4.9% YoY) and operating profit of JPY11.0bn (-20.8% YoY).
The company forecasts FY03/26 revenue of JPY220.0bn (+5.6% YoY) and operating profit of JPY11.9bn (+8.5% YoY).
The medium-term management plan targets FY03/28 revenue of JPY280.0bn (+34.4% vs. FY03/25) and operating profit of JPY20.0bn (+82.3%).

Medinet Co Ltd (2370 JP): 1H FY09/25 flash update