Daily Briefs

Nidec Corp (6594 JP) has launched its offer for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) at an unchanged JPY11,000. The offer is open from 4 April to 21 May.
The offer was launched despite securing all regulatory approvals and the Board’s postponement request. The launch could also be an attempt to thwart a competing proposal.
Despite the launch, Nidec’s offer at current terms has a low chance of success, necessitating revised terms. There remains a medium-to-high probability of a competing proposal.

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Drops Amid US Tariffs: Implied Volatility Hits Extreme Levels

By Gaudenz Schneider

Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs led to significantly lower market open throughout Asia-Pacific. In the US, S&P 500 futures dropped -3.5%, with the VIX spiking to 23.45.
Impact on Japan: Japan faces a 24% tariff, with specific sectors like automobiles hit with 25%. This led to a 4.5% drop in the Nikkei 225, stabilizing at 34,600 (-3.2%).
Volatility Increase: The Nikkei 225 VIX index jumped from previous levels in the low 20’s to rise above 38 before retreating to 32.8, indicating the 99th percentile of implied volatility.

Now Is the Time to Turn the Slowdown in Profit Growth into an Opportunity

By Aki Matsumoto

The profit outlook for many Japanese companies may not be good enough for overseas investors, who are selecting the best investments from among stocks around the world.
In FY2025, both sales and recurring profit are expected to slow in the manufacturing sector. This casts a shadow over TSE stock prices, which are dominated by manufacturing companies.
Companies whose corporate performance are at a standstill has good opportunity to show investors how it will use the proceeds from the sale of cross-held shares to expand corporate value.

Chart of the Day: Implied Volatility Soars Globally, US and Bitcoin Hit Hardest

By Gaudenz Schneider

Asia-Pac Performance: The Indian market bucketed the down trend with the Nifty 50 declining only 0.35% with stable implied volatility. The Nikkei 225, on the other hand,dropped 2.8%.
US and European Decline: The US market saw the largest decline, with implied volatility rising by 8%. European indices showed mixed results, with the EuroStoxx 50 reacting strongly.
Gold vs. Bitcoin: Gold (GLD US ETF) proved to be a better store of value, while Bitcoin joined the US indices in higher volatility.

D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) (4576 JP) – Q4 Follow-Up

By Sessa Investment Research

SIR believes DWTI has entered an exciting new phase given significant advances in pipeline development achieved over the last 12 months.
Key advances include: publishing favorable topline results of in-house H-1337 PIIb US trials (strong prospects as “first choice as a second-line Glaucoma drug”), commencing jointly developed Japan PII clinical trials of regenerative medicine cell therapy DWR-2206 with ActualEyes, and successfully completing all transplants, completion of dosing to subjects in global Phase III clinical trials of FECD treatment K-321 being developed by licensee Kowa, and obtaining China approval for DW-1002 by licensee DORC, among others.
Potential for earnings to turn profitable over the next several years, transitioning from the growth investment phase to the recovery phase, suggests to us share price risk is likely weighted to the upside going forward.

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Apr 04

Daily Brief United States: SPDR S&P 500, Intel Corp, Nasdaq-100 Stock Index, Klarna Group, Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc, Global Business Travel Group I, GoodRx Holdings Inc, Coursera , Acuity Brands, BellRing Brands and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Trump Team’s Weird Tariff Math – Not Meant to Be Negotiated
Intel’s Annual Shareholder Meeting Proxy Statement Has A Few Interesting Gems
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) And Trump’s Tariffs War: How To Read Our Insights/Models During A Bear Market/Crash
Klarna’s Big IPO Has Investors Thinking “Buy Now – Profit Now”
Spectrum Brands Holdings: Is This Bold E-Commerce Move A Billion-Dollar Masterstroke?
Global Business Travel Set to Soar? $2.8 Billion in Wins and a Surge in Travel Demand Could Catalyze Growth!
GoodRx Holdings: The Top 7 Influences on Its Performance for 2025 & the Future!
Coursera Expands Global Reach With Solid Content Diversification & Localization Strategy
Acuity Brand: Robust Financial Management
BellRing Brands Building A Global Strategy as Dymatize Becomes the Growth Engine Abroad!

Trump Team’s Weird Tariff Math – Not Meant to Be Negotiated

For weeks, if not months, the world has been wondering what the “reciprocal tariffs” would be, and what the logic would be behind them.
There is talk of VAT, and NTBs, and huge tariff step-ups after quotas are exceeded (US exports of milk and cheese to Canada – high tariffs, but quotas not exceeded).
But a quick check of the math on the Trump Executive Order and Annex I tells you the logic is different than what everyone expected.

Intel’s Annual Shareholder Meeting Proxy Statement Has A Few Interesting Gems

By William Keating

We remain steadfast in our belief in our company’s future. That said, there are no quick fixes. We need to demonstrate consistent execution and results over a sustained period. Frank Yeary
Intel’s ELT scored themselves a remarkable 29.7 out of 35 for their 2024 “Product Leadership” goal, despite mounting data center market share loss and Gaudi being an abject failure
While Pat Gelsinger’s departure from Intel was labelled a “retirement” last December, the Proxy Statement refers to it as a “resignation”. Which was it?

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) And Trump’s Tariffs War: How To Read Our Insights/Models During A Bear Market/Crash

By Nico Rosti

This insight will be different from the usual format: its goal is help those reading our insights and using our models to apply our analysis during a financial crisis.
Take this as a sort of “user manual” to use our models during the Bear Market caused by Trump’s Tariffs War.
The Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) WEEKLY will be analyzed to make some clarifications and examples.

Klarna’s Big IPO Has Investors Thinking “Buy Now – Profit Now”

By Finimize Research

The Swedish startup has formally filed for a US IPO and is aiming to raise $1 billion, at a valuation of between $15 billion and $20 billion.
Buy now, pay later is one of the biggest shifts in modern finance. Klarna isn’t just BNPL anymore: it has a whole shopping and payments ecosystem.
Klarna may be a heavyweight in BNPL, but it’s not alone in the ring. Heavy hitters like Affirm, Afterpay, and PayPal are also scrambling for dominance.

Spectrum Brands Holdings: Is This Bold E-Commerce Move A Billion-Dollar Masterstroke?

Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. had a mixed first quarter of fiscal year 2025, as revealed in their recent financial results.
The company experienced a modest increase in net sales, driven by strategic investments and several successful initiatives across its business segments.
Net sales grew by 1.2% overall, with organic sales, excluding unfavorable foreign exchange impacts, rising by 1.9%.

Global Business Travel Set to Soar? $2.8 Billion in Wins and a Surge in Travel Demand Could Catalyze Growth!

American Express Global Business Travel reported strong financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, showcasing a record year for adjusted EBITDA and revenue.
The company exceeded the midpoint of its guidance range, with adjusted EBITDA rising by 26% year-over-year.
These results were driven by growth in technology-enabled productivity, a scalable cost base, and robust free cash flow generation.

GoodRx Holdings: The Top 7 Influences on Its Performance for 2025 & the Future!

GoodRx, the company focused on providing users with discounts on prescriptions and other healthcare services, recently reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024.
The company highlighted several strategic initiatives and partnerships aimed at driving future growth, including enhanced partnerships with pharmacies, pharmaceutical manufacturers, and healthcare professionals.
In terms of financial performance, GoodRx posted fourth-quarter revenue of $198.6 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $67.1 million.

Coursera Expands Global Reach With Solid Content Diversification & Localization Strategy

Coursera’s latest quarterly and full-year earnings report highlights a complex picture characterized by noteworthy achievements as well as certain challenges.
Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 reached $179 million, marking a 6% increase from the previous year across all operational segments.
Full-year revenue stood at $695 million, up 9% year-over-year, alongside significant profitability improvements, exemplified by a 750 basis point increase in annual adjusted EBITDA margin and over $59 million in free cash flow.

Acuity Brand: Robust Financial Management

Acuity Brands reported solid financial results for its fiscal 2025 first quarter, reflecting competent execution of its strategic objectives.
The company achieved year-over-year sales growth of 2% to $952 million, supported by expansions in both its Lighting and Intelligent Spaces segments.
Acuity Brands’ adjusted operating profit also rose by 3% to $159 million, leading to a slight increase in profit margins, capitalizing on product vitality and improved price management strategies.

BellRing Brands Building A Global Strategy as Dymatize Becomes the Growth Engine Abroad!

BellRing Brands recently reported its first-quarter fiscal 2025 results, marking a promising start to the year.
The company saw an acceleration in business performance with total net sales and adjusted EBITDA increasing by approximately 25%.
This success was mainly driven by Premier Protein, whose strong performance contributed to favorable gross margins.

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Apr 04

Daily Brief India: Wns Holdings Ltd Adr, JSW Infrastructure and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

WNS Could Be The Hottest M&A Target In Tech Outsourcing Right Now: Capgemini & Other Tech Giants Are Circling!
JSW Infrastructure – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

WNS Could Be The Hottest M&A Target In Tech Outsourcing Right Now: Capgemini & Other Tech Giants Are Circling!

WNS Holdings reported its fiscal 2025 third-quarter results, highlighting some key financial metrics and operational dynamics.
The company achieved net revenue of $319.1 million, marking a year over-year increase of 1% on a reported basis, though it remained flat when adjusted for constant currency.
Sequentially, however, there was a more robust performance with revenue increasing by 2.7% on a reported basis and 3.2% in constant currency terms.

JSW Infrastructure – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Established in 2004, JSW Infrastructure (JSWIL) is the second-largest commercial port operator in India in terms of cargo-handling capacity.
The company owned nine ports/terminals for a total installed capacity of 173.2 mn mtpa at end-December 2021.
The company is majority-owned and controlled by the Sajjan Jindal Family Trust, which also owns and controls other JSW Group-related companies, including JSW Steel.

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Apr 04

Daily Brief China: ENN Energy, Dream International, HKBN Ltd, Duality Biotherapeutics, Dada Nexus , Xiamen Hithium, Chagee Holdings, New World Development, Blackstone and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

ENN Energy (2688 HK): This Is An Avoid
Dream International (1126 HK) FY24 Results and Concall Update: Margins Bounce Back
HKBN (1310 HK): I Squared Inches Closer to a Competing Offer
Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) Pre-IPO: Valuation and the Trap
Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.Com’s US$2/ADS Firm Offer
Xiamen Hithium Energy Storage Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Chagee Holdings IPO Preview
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Asia Real Estate Tracker (03-Apr-2025): Warburg Pincus buys Tokyo office in life sciences JV.

ENN Energy (2688 HK): This Is An Avoid

Back on the 26th March, ENN Energy (2688 HK) announced a cash/scrip Offer from ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH), its largest shareholder.
Investors hoping for a clean (er) exit, or one where the back-end terms were clearly defined, will be disappointed. And minorities are active in this name.
The Offer pivots on where the newly-listed H-shares trade. The IFA’s assessment on the theoretical value of these H-shares is unrealistic.

Dream International (1126 HK) FY24 Results and Concall Update: Margins Bounce Back

By Sameer Taneja

Dream International (1126 HK) posted strong results, with revenues up 2% and profits down 11% YoY, demonstrating effective cost control in a challenging competitive environment.
Net cash on the balance sheet ended at 1.52 bn HKD (vs 1.35 bn), representing 33% of market capitalization. The company rewarded shareholders with 60 cents of dividend (~8.9% yield).
Trading at 6x/3x PE/EV-EBITDA FY24, with an 8.9% dividend yield and an average 10-year ROCE of 20%, the stock is worth exploring from here.

HKBN (1310 HK): I Squared Inches Closer to a Competing Offer

Today’s HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) monthly update notes that I Squared has completed due diligence and is finalising the terms of a possible preconditional offer.
The I Squared bid will likely be a modest premium to the China Mobile offer with a 50% minimum tendering condition. The key unknown is securing regulatory approvals.
China Mobile (941 HK) will first react to an I Squared offer by maintaining terms. However, regardless of whether I Squared secures regulatory approvals, it is likely to match terms.

Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) Pre-IPO: Valuation and the Trap

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Duality Biotherapeutics, a China-based clinical-stage biotechnology company, plans to raise up to US$250m via a Hong Kong listing.
We look at the company’s valuation based on its core products, namely DB-1303, DB-1311, and DB-1305.
We highlight key differences between our valuation and the broker valuation guidance.

Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.Com’s US$2/ADS Firm Offer

Back on the 27th January, Dada Nexus (DADA US), a Chinese on-demand retail and delivery platform, announced a preliminary non-binding proposal from JD.com (9618 HK).
JD.com, a 63.2% shareholder, was offering US$0.50/share (US$2.00/ADS), a 42% premium to last close. Those terms are now firm and a definitive agreement entered into.
The merger is expected to close in the third quarter. Trading at 4.7%/15%, gross/annualised spread, assuming a four month off-ramp.

Xiamen Hithium Energy Storage Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

Xiamen Hithium Energy Storage Technology (XH) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Huatai, Citic, ABC, and BOC.
XH is a leading pure-play global energy storage company, it’s ranked third in the global energy storage market in 2024, in terms of lithium-ion ESS battery shipments, as per CIC.
With its integrated value chain and mainly in-house manufacturing, XH offers end-to-end energy storage solutions across various application scenarios, mainly collaborate with third-party system integrators in their main market, China.

Chagee Holdings IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is getting ready to complete its IPO on NASDAQ in the next several weeks. Chagee is one of the largest premium tea chains in China.
The company’s sales and profits have been exploding higher in the past three years. Its sales jumped from 0.5 billion RMB in 2022 to 12.4 billion RMB in 2024.
Chagee could raise more than $500 million in this IPO. However, this is subject to change.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

US President Donald Trump has announced a minimum 10% tariff on all exporters to the US, as well as additional reciprocal duties on c. 60 nations.
Vietnam faces one of the steepest tariff increases at 46%, while China will be subject to an additional tariff hike of 34% (on top of an existing 20% duty tied to fentanyl trafficking).
Meanwhile, India, South Korea and Japan have been hit with tariffs of 26%, 25% and 24%, respectively.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (03-Apr-2025): Warburg Pincus buys Tokyo office in life sciences JV.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

Warburg Pincus partners with Eastgate to acquire Tokyo office as part of Life Sciences joint venture, expanding their investment portfolio.
Greystar purchases GIC-Wee Hur Aussie student housing for $1B, solidifying their presence in the Australian real estate market.
Iron Mountain makes strategic move by acquiring Web Werks, an Indian data center group, enhancing their capabilities in the data management sector.

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Apr 04

Most Read: SPDR S&P 500, Nick Scali Ltd, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Hanmi Semiconductor, ENN Energy, Solar Industries India, The Shanghai Commerical & Sa, HKBN Ltd, Makino Milling Machine Co and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Trump Team’s Weird Tariff Math – Not Meant to Be Negotiated
HKBN (1310 HK): MBK Ups Stake Via VLN Conversion
Northern Star’s Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows
CATL A/H Listing – Thoughts on A/H Premium
Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?
ENN Energy (2688 HK): This Is An Avoid
AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Plenty of Change With More Likely
Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun25: US$2.1bn One-Way; 17% Turnover; Sector-Neutral Trade Ideas
HKBN (1310 HK): I Squared Inches Closer to a Competing Offer
Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Nidec Launches Its Offer

Trump Team’s Weird Tariff Math – Not Meant to Be Negotiated

For weeks, if not months, the world has been wondering what the “reciprocal tariffs” would be, and what the logic would be behind them.
There is talk of VAT, and NTBs, and huge tariff step-ups after quotas are exceeded (US exports of milk and cheese to Canada – high tariffs, but quotas not exceeded).
But a quick check of the math on the Trump Executive Order and Annex I tells you the logic is different than what everyone expected.

HKBN (1310 HK): MBK Ups Stake Via VLN Conversion

China Mobile (941 HK) has made a pre-conditional HK$5.23/share voluntary Offer for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK). However, a possible separate Offer from I Squared continues to make the news.
In an unusual move, MBK, via Twin Holding, has converted HK$970.5mn of VLNs, at a whopping HK$11.60/share conversion price, lifting MBK’s stake to 16.39% on a fully diluted basis.
Speculation is rife that MBK provides an irrevocable to I Squared for its enlarged shareholding. Maybe. I still don’t see China supporting a U.S.-based infrastructure firm over an SOE .

Northern Star’s Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows

Northern Star Resources (NST AU)‘s acquisition of De Grey Mining (DEG AU) is expected to complete in the next 3 weeks.
There will be an ad hoc inclusion to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and passive buying in Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from a bunch of trackers of different indices.
The acquisition brings Northern Star Resources (NST AU) close to inclusion in the S&P/ASX 20 Index, but it’s not there yet.

CATL A/H Listing – Thoughts on A/H Premium

By Sumeet Singh

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise at least US$5bn in its H-share listing.
CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about its recent updates and provide our thoughts on valuations.

Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?

Short notional ticked higher on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets and is expected to continue increasing over the next few months.
Since the resumption of short selling, foreign holdings of Korean equities have increased from 29.26% to 29.3%.
The Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) to KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) ratio has stayed stable over the last 3 trading days.

ENN Energy (2688 HK): This Is An Avoid

Back on the 26th March, ENN Energy (2688 HK) announced a cash/scrip Offer from ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH), its largest shareholder.
Investors hoping for a clean (er) exit, or one where the back-end terms were clearly defined, will be disappointed. And minorities are active in this name.
The Offer pivots on where the newly-listed H-shares trade. The IFA’s assessment on the theoretical value of these H-shares is unrealistic.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Plenty of Change With More Likely

We currently forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 10 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 9 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun25: US$2.1bn One-Way; 17% Turnover; Sector-Neutral Trade Ideas

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the June 2025 index rebal event.
We expect five changes for the TDIV index. On top of that, there will be capping flows too.

HKBN (1310 HK): I Squared Inches Closer to a Competing Offer

Today’s HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) monthly update notes that I Squared has completed due diligence and is finalising the terms of a possible preconditional offer.
The I Squared bid will likely be a modest premium to the China Mobile offer with a 50% minimum tendering condition. The key unknown is securing regulatory approvals.
China Mobile (941 HK) will first react to an I Squared offer by maintaining terms. However, regardless of whether I Squared secures regulatory approvals, it is likely to match terms.

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Nidec Launches Its Offer

Nidec Corp (6594 JP) has launched its offer for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) at an unchanged JPY11,000. The offer is open from 4 April to 21 May.
The offer was launched despite securing all regulatory approvals and the Board’s postponement request. The launch could also be an attempt to thwart a competing proposal.
Despite the launch, Nidec’s offer at current terms has a low chance of success, necessitating revised terms. There remains a medium-to-high probability of a competing proposal.

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Apr 03

Daily Brief Credit: Initiating Coverage on Telecom: Solid Market Position but Uncertain Outlook and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Initiating Coverage on Telecom: Solid Market Position but Uncertain Outlook
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Initiating Coverage on Telecom: Solid Market Position but Uncertain Outlook

By Leandro Gubler

We are initiating coverage on Telecom with a Market Perform recommendation. We view the notes as fairly valued considering the uncertainty surrounding the potential acquisition of Telefónica.
Telecom maintains a strong market position, supported by its broad service scale and integrated offerings, which enhance customer retention and operational efficiency.
We believe Telecom is well-positioned to benefit from these trends but see a better entry point once there is greater clarity on the acquisition’s implications.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In the US, the JOLTS job openings decreased to 7.57 mn (7.66 mn e / 7.76 mn p) in February.
The job openings rate fell slightly to 4.5% (4.6% e / 4.7% revised p), while the layoffs rate was stable at 1.1% (1.1% revised p).
Separately, the March ISM manufacturing index declined to 49.0 (49.5 e / 50.3 p). This was driven by a drop in the new orders and employment components, while the prices paid component increased.

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Apr 03

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Trump Announces 24% Tariffs on Japan and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Trump Announces 24% Tariffs on Japan
Thematic Report: Cooling India- Indian Air Conditioner (AC) Industry
Thematic Report : India–US Trade; Assessing the Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs on Indian Exports
Japan Morning Connection: Trump’s Tariff Shock Set to Roil Japan with a 10% + 24% Baseline
US Banks – Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24
How the ₹23K Cr PLI Scheme Benefits EMS Companies – Dixon, Amber, and Kaynes
₹4.02 Lakh Crore IPO Lock-In Expiry Wave in H1 2025 in Indian Markets
#130 India Insight: Textile Aims $100B Exports, Wind Energy Hits 48.5 GW, Data Centers Reach $10B
Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – GenAI and Knowledge Worker Productivity

Ohayo Japan | Trump Announces 24% Tariffs on Japan

By Mark Chadwick

U.S. & Nikkei stock futures fell as much as 2.5%, signaling a weak Thursday open. After hours, Nvidia, Amazon, and Tesla dropped over 4%.
The U.S. will impose a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, with Japan facing a 24% tariff as part of measures targeting what President Trump called “bad actors”
Fast Retailing’s domestic Uniqlo same-store sales, including e-commerce, rose 12% year-on-year in March

Thematic Report: Cooling India- Indian Air Conditioner (AC) Industry

By Nimish Maheshwari

India’s RAC market is growing at 18–20% CAGR, but faces a critical compressor supply shortage due to capacity constraints and BIS-related import delays.
Short-Term risks around component supply, margins, and inventory exist, but structural demand drivers and PLI-driven localization present long-term tailwinds for OEMs and component makers.
Despite near-term volatility, AC sector remains a strong structural story; focus shifts to players with scale, backward integration, and policy-aligned manufacturing strategies.

Thematic Report : India–US Trade; Assessing the Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs on Indian Exports

India’s thriving trade relationship with the US has come under scrutiny following the announcement of the Reciprocal Tariff Plan by the US administration.
As the world’s largest economy considers levelling tariff imbalances with trade partners, India — despite enjoying a trade surplus — faces only moderate risk.
Here’s a detailed look into the numbers, categories, and sectors that matter

Japan Morning Connection: Trump’s Tariff Shock Set to Roil Japan with a 10% + 24% Baseline

By Andrew Jackson

Definitely a worse outcome than expected, but Canada and Mexico exemptions show the path to negotiation.
Firms with Vietnam manufacturing hit hard, as well as Apple given its exposure to Chinese manufacturing.
Nintendo’s Switch2 has taken a big step up – but without the big titles is it enough to spark a replacement cycle?

US Banks – Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24

By Daniel Tabbush

US banks report weekly balance sheets, and the data is an good gauge for what we can expect during 1Q25 for profit, and especially core income, at least directionally.
The most recent loan growth data is now even stronger than before, and this is what matters: the weekly data is accelerating.
The pace of weekly YoY growth now is 2.7% during 1Q25 while this was 2.0% during 1Q24, the second derivative is also improving vastly, now up 33% YoY

How the ₹23K Cr PLI Scheme Benefits EMS Companies – Dixon, Amber, and Kaynes

India has launched a ₹23,000 crore PLI scheme for electronic components, targeting sub-assemblies, PCBs, and lithium-ion cells to boost local manufacturing and reduce import dependence.
EMS leaders like Dixon, Amber, and Kaynes are accelerating backward integration through JVs, capex, and high-value component manufacturing, unlocking margin expansion and strategic insulation from global supply chain disruptions. I
India’s PCB production is just 8% of its ₹236 bn market, where PLI-backed players like Amber and Kaynes could scale rapidly as import substitution gains momentum

₹4.02 Lakh Crore IPO Lock-In Expiry Wave in H1 2025 in Indian Markets

By June 2025, shares worth INR 4.02 trillion across 73 IPOs will become tradeable post lock-in expiry, including major names like Hyundai, Swiggy, and NTPC Green.
This massive unlock could flood markets with fresh float, increasing supply dramatically and potentially causing short-term price corrections, especially in already weak or overvalued stocks.
Investors should prepare for near-term volatility but also watch for dips in strong businesses as potential accumulation opportunities once initial selling pressure subsides.

#130 India Insight: Textile Aims $100B Exports, Wind Energy Hits 48.5 GW, Data Centers Reach $10B

Kaynes Technology India (KAYNES IN) Semicon to deliver India’s first packaged semiconductor chips by July 2025, supported by a multi-year deal.
Bank Of America (BAC US) expects RBI to cut the repo rate to 6% in April, with a target of 5.5% by year-end.
Vadilal Industries (VDI IN) settles promoter dispute, plans leadership restructuring and board reconstitution to improve governance and growth.

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – GenAI and Knowledge Worker Productivity

By Water Tower Research

Tariff uncertainty, inflation, and deteriorating consumer confidence all are weighing on the market and furniture and furnishings stocks.
The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index was up 1.6% during a week, while the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index (-0.4%), the Home Goods Retailers Index (-7.1%), and the broader markets (-3.2% to -4.3%) were all down.
AI-generated code is playing an increasingly important role in software engineering according to YC CEO Gary Tan (1).

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Apr 03

Daily Brief ECM: CATL A/H Listing – Thoughts on A/H Premium and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

CATL A/H Listing – Thoughts on A/H Premium
Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case
Chagee Pre-IPO – Market Leading Growth but Showing Signs of Fatigue
Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings – The Business Model, the Concerns Behind and Valuation Outlook
SmartStop Self Storage (SMA): Upside Surprise, IPO Pops 8% at Open and Trades Higher

CATL A/H Listing – Thoughts on A/H Premium

By Sumeet Singh

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise at least US$5bn in its H-share listing.
CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about its recent updates and provide our thoughts on valuations.

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case

Chagee Holdings (CHA US), a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$400-500 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
According to iResearch, as of December 31, 2024, Chagee was the largest premium freshly made tea drink brand in China by the number of stores.
The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.

Chagee Pre-IPO – Market Leading Growth but Showing Signs of Fatigue

By Nicholas Tan

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is planning to raise up to US$500m through its upcoming US IPO.
Chagee is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings – The Business Model, the Concerns Behind and Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chagee adopts the “1+1+9+N” business model, which ensures the successful replication of the single store model. However, we saw performance decline in 2024, and future performance growth sustainability is uncertain.
In terms of valuation, comparable companies include Starbucks and MIXUE. We think valuation of Chagee should be lower than MIXUE and Starbucks as both have proved themselves in the industry.
Future growth would inevitably slow down. Investors may need more ‘safety margins’ on valuation because despite short-term strong demand, investors need to be alert to the performance validation after IPO.

SmartStop Self Storage (SMA): Upside Surprise, IPO Pops 8% at Open and Trades Higher

By IPO Boutique

SmartStop priced a full-size deal of 27.0mm shares at $30.00 and opened for trading at $32.40 for a gain of 8% at first trade.
The offering finished five-times oversubscribed with the underwriter stating that the deal had sizable participation from long-only and REIT-dedicated accounts.
A low-risk storage unit company which pays a monthly dividend, like SmartStop, attracted the right buyer for this deal to work given the current economic environment.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 03

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Shin Kong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) Deal Gets FSC Approval – Still A Good Swap and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Shin Kong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) Deal Gets FSC Approval – Still A Good Swap
Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable Unless Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering/Split
Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?
Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Jun25: Taishin-Shin Kong Merger Could Cause Two Changes
Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious Blah Blah” (Apr25), 🚨 AGAIN Read TSE Update Doc 3 🚨
Dropsuite (DSE AU): Scheme Vote on 9 May
Initiating Coverage Of “New” Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals
Dropsuite (DSE AU): 9th May Vote On NinjaOne’s Offer
Blood, Sweat, and Bids: Grifols Draws Renewed Interest from Brookfield

Shin Kong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) Deal Gets FSC Approval – Still A Good Swap

Late Monday, The Financial Supervisory Commission approved the merger where Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) is to be absorbed by Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT). Announcement here.
Yesterday, the chairmen of both Shin Kong and Taishin decided the merger base date, which has been set a bit further out than even I expected, at 24 July 2025.
The terms tightened yesterday. There is still a worthwhile switch to be done (or arb if you have cheap borrow), and NEWCO is cheap to peers, STILL.

Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable Unless Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering/Split

The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
Kokusai did NOT get added, waiting for a split, an offering, or time to pass. Only one sector change was made. So we see One ADD and One DELETE.
The lack of effort to address sector imbalances within the rules suggests the rules are not as hard as people thought. Intra-review changes could be more interesting in years ahead.

Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?

Short notional ticked higher on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets and is expected to continue increasing over the next few months.
Since the resumption of short selling, foreign holdings of Korean equities have increased from 29.26% to 29.3%.
The Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) to KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) ratio has stayed stable over the last 3 trading days.

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Jun25: Taishin-Shin Kong Merger Could Cause Two Changes

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the June 2025 index rebal event.
Currently, we see one change for T50 and one change for T100.

Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious Blah Blah” (Apr25), 🚨 AGAIN Read TSE Update Doc 3 🚨

TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
611 new CGRs filed since 1-Mar-25. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff file tool. Input a name, see the changes in the reports.
The JPX was curiously quiet itself as far as I can tell. No new governance reports, documents, etc, though there is a small consultation this month on the JPXNikkei400.

Dropsuite (DSE AU): Scheme Vote on 9 May

The Dropsuite Ltd (DSE AU) IE considers NinjaOne’s A$5.90 offer fair and reasonable as it is above its A$3.92-5.88 valuation range.
The offer is conditional on shareholder and FIRB approval. Despite the largest shareholder’s selldown, the vote remains low-risk.
The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high. At the last close and for a 30 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.7%/11.5%.

Initiating Coverage Of “New” Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vivendi executed a landmark three-way spin-off in December 2024, aiming (but not succeeding) to eliminate its conglomerate discount and unlock shareholder value by listing Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette separately.
Following Telecom Italia’s strategic unwinding, Vivendi incurred over €2 billion in losses but recovered nearly €1 billion in cash through divestments, highlighting its shift toward portfolio streamlining and deleveraging.
Vivendi now operates as a focused investment holding with UMG comprising over 60% of its asset base, but high concentration and equity beta expose the group to significant portfolio risk.

Dropsuite (DSE AU): 9th May Vote On NinjaOne’s Offer