Category

Daily Briefs

Mar 05
0

Daily Brief ECM: Local Brokers Sound Off on 40% IPO Lock-Up—A Major Setup for Offshore Traders and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Local Brokers Sound Off on 40% IPO Lock-Up—A Major Setup for Offshore Traders
  • Hanwha Systems: Expand 3rd Party Allocation Capital Increase Limit from 20% to 30% of Issued Shares
  • It’s Been a Tough Two+ Years for SHEIN & Its Investors, & Things Don’t Get Easier From Here
  • Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls A/H Listing – Strong Track Record

Local Brokers Sound Off on 40% IPO Lock-Up—A Major Setup for Offshore Traders

By Sanghyun Park

  • This 40% rule will distort bookbuilding, force down-pricing, choke float post-listing, and amplify volatility.
  • Offshore investors like us benefit most—cheap IPO pricing with no lock-up. Local brokers see this as a giveaway to foreign funds and pushed back hard last Friday.
  • FSS won’t budge—40% lock-up is happening. If issues arise post-implementation, they might adjust later.

Hanwha Systems: Expand 3rd Party Allocation Capital Increase Limit from 20% to 30% of Issued Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • In the past week, Hanwha Systems announced that it plans to expand third party allocation capital increase limit from 20% to 30% of issued shares in its articles of incorporation.
  • This plan to significantly increase the amount of capital raise limit sets the stage for a major capital increase by Hanwha Systems in 2025, in our view. 
  • Unlike in 2021 when we were bullish on Hanwha Systems post a large-scale capital raise, we are more cautious on the company’s potential new large scale capital raise this year. 

It’s Been a Tough Two+ Years for SHEIN & Its Investors, & Things Don’t Get Easier From Here

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Over the last 25 months, there’s been a steady stream of bad news for DTC platform SHEIN
  • The latest challenges: US tariff chaos & Amazon’s launch of its competing platform, Haul
  • Tariff changes & growth of Haul could mean SHEIN IPO gets done at fraction of 2023 valuation

Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls A/H Listing – Strong Track Record

By Sumeet Singh

  • Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH) (ZSIC), a manufacturer of refrigeration and air-conditioning control components, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
  • ZSIC is a market leader in a number of products, with commanding market share both domestically and globally.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Credit: Cikarang Listrindo – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Cikarang Listrindo – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Cikarang Listrindo – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

  • Cikarang Listrindo (CL) has launched a roadshow to market a 144A/RegS senior unsecured notes offering of up to USD 350 mn.
  • The proceeds will likely be used to refinance the company’s USD 500 mn 4.95% bonds due September 2026. We see fair value for the proposed notes at c.
  • 150 bps above the relevant Treasury benchmark.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In the US, the ISM manufacturing index edged down to 50.3 (50.7 e / 50.9 p) in February.
  • This was on account of a contraction in the new orders and employment components, which were offset somewhat by a sharp increase in the prices paid component.
  • Meanwhile, the February (final) S&P manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 (51.2 p), above the preliminary estimate of 51.6.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks Tumble Again and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Tumble Again
  • SEBI’s New Derivative Product:  Specialized Investment Fund (SIF), Game Changer
  • #113 India Insight: Reliance Fights $2.81B Demand, Haldiram’s Deal Stalls, SEBI Hits BSE Volumes.
  • Japan Morning Connection: Volatile Session but Pointing Higher on Potential for a Tariff Flip-Flop
  • February 2025: A Challenging Month for India’s Commercial Vehicle Industry
  • South African Listed Property Review February 2025

Ohayo Japan | Stocks Tumble Again

By Mark Chadwick

  • The S&P 500 fell 1.2% to a four-month low after fresh U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China took effect
  • The Trump administration’s tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China will significantly impact the automobile industry
  • UNIQLO domestic same-store sales, including e-commerce, rose 12.2% year-on-year in February, driven by strong sales of winter clothing

SEBI’s New Derivative Product:  Specialized Investment Fund (SIF), Game Changer

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • SEBI’s new Specialized Investment Funds (SIF) bridge the gap between mutual funds and PMS, offering sophisticated investors greater flexibility and advanced strategies.
  • Launching April 1, 2025, SIFs grant access to complex derivatives and alternative investments, demanding careful review due to their high-risk nature.
  • With a minimum investment of ₹10 lakh, SIFs offer dynamic portfolio allocation across equity, debt, and hybrid strategies, enhancing diversification and risk-adjusted returns.

#113 India Insight: Reliance Fights $2.81B Demand, Haldiram’s Deal Stalls, SEBI Hits BSE Volumes.

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Japan Morning Connection: Volatile Session but Pointing Higher on Potential for a Tariff Flip-Flop

By Andrew Jackson

  • TSMC higher on news from the day before it is investing heavily in US fab capacity.
  • Continental AG -11.6% after earnings miss sets a poor tone for JP tire makers Bridgestone, Toyo, Yokohama and Sumitomo.
  • All eyes on Trumps speech to congress this morning, although markets should be firm off the open.

February 2025: A Challenging Month for India’s Commercial Vehicle Industry

By Sreemant Dudhoria

South African Listed Property Review February 2025

By Garreth Elston

  • February proved to be largely directionless for SA listed property, with the J803 All Property Index up a paltry 0.27%.
  • Macro instability has certainly not aided, and the Government of National Unity not being able to deliver a budget on schedule certainly was not a plus.
  • Latest Rode research continues to point to the Office sector as having bottomed, and Industrial continues to perform well. While the Clur Index shows that Retail continues to perform soundly.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief ESG: Dissolution of Parent-Subsidiary Listing Is Just Beginning. Included Affiliates and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Dissolution of Parent-Subsidiary Listing Is Just Beginning. Included Affiliates, It’ll Grow Further

Dissolution of Parent-Subsidiary Listing Is Just Beginning. Included Affiliates, It’ll Grow Further

By Aki Matsumoto

  • With the TSE requiring disclosure of rationale regarding parent-subsidiary listings, etc., it is certain that more companies will move to dissolve parent-subsidiary listings.
  • The background for the high TOB premium in Japan was that many companies had stock prices considerably lower than their intrinsic value.
  • There are total of 1,217 companies: 230 listed subsidiaries and 987 equity method affiliates. In addition to this, industry restructuring is also required; there are still numerous opportunities for TOB.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Keisei Railway (9009) Gets Bad Advice from Activists and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Keisei Railway (9009) Gets Bad Advice from Activists, Which Is Good for The Rest of US
  • Former CEO Claims Intel Is Back & Says Can We Please Stop Talking About Breaking It Up?
  • TSMC To Invest A Further $100 Billion In Arizona
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Invest Further in US up to 100bn; Intel Foundry Service Gets Direct Clients.
  • Sinfonia Technology (6507): A Strategic Asset in Japan’s Defence Ecosystem
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Expansion Visualized; Implications of New U.S. Investment; New HBM Memory
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC’s Range Declining; ASE Near Parity; ChipMOS Rare Discount
  • Ping An Good Doctor (1833 HK) – The Mandatory General Offer and DeepSeek Story May Not Turn the Tide
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Mar-2025): Rakuten uses AI and O-RAN to save on telecom costs, targets global growth.
  • Philippines Exchange (PSE PM): Steady FY24 Sets The Stage For Catalyst-Filled FY25

Keisei Railway (9009) Gets Bad Advice from Activists, Which Is Good for The Rest of US

By Michael Allen

  • Activist investors, confusing market price with intrinsic value, have shot themselves in the foot by offering terrible advice to Keisei Railway’s management. 
  • When Keisei followed advice from the activist, selling just 1% of the shares of Oriental Land, Keisei’s share price collapsed, proving market price has nothing to do with intrinsic value. 
  • Keisei’s revenue growth and return on investment are stronger than most of its peers, and the crash in its stock price caused by activists might create an opportunity for others.

Former CEO Claims Intel Is Back & Says Can We Please Stop Talking About Breaking It Up?

By William Keating

  • On March 1, ex Intel CEO Craig Barrett posted a rebuttal of his former board members opinion piece on the subject of the company’s future
  • He claims that Intel is back, the company must not be broken up, the board should be fired and Mr. Gelsinger should be rehired to finish the job he started
  • Meanwhile, Intel has put its Ohio fab on hold until the end of the decade, its German fab on hold for two years, both damning indictments of Mr Gelsinger’s strategy

TSMC To Invest A Further $100 Billion In Arizona

By William Keating

  • TSMC plans to invest $100 billion in the US to build three new fabs, two new advanced packaging facilities and establish an R&D centre, all in Arizona
  • During the press conference at the White House, Mr Wei received fulsome praise from President Trump and was careful to thank him for his vision and support on multiple occasions
  • The announcement lacked key details such as construction timelines and which process technologies would be deployed but it would still appear to have done the trick, at least for now.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Invest Further in US up to 100bn; Intel Foundry Service Gets Direct Clients.

By Patrick Liao

  • On March 4th, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) announced that the company will further increase its investment up to $100 billion in the US.
  • The restructured case of Intel Corp (INTC US) has elicited different opinions, but a few companies may consider trying out Intel Foundry Service.
  • Currently, we find these developments acceptable, although we view them as the result of political interference, and time will tell.

Sinfonia Technology (6507): A Strategic Asset in Japan’s Defence Ecosystem

By Mark Chadwick

  • Sinfonia Technology is strategically positioned to benefit from Japan’s rising defence and semiconductor investments, leveraging its expertise in precision motion systems and power electronics.
  • The company holds a leading market share in aerospace and semiconductor handling, underpinned by robust financial performance and a well-defined strategy for future growth.
  • Amid increasing geopolitical tensions, Sinfonia’s integral role in space and defence applications enhances its long-term growth potential, making it a noteworthy player in Japan’s industrial expansion.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Expansion Visualized; Implications of New U.S. Investment; New HBM Memory

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC’s Latest Global Expansion Plans, Visualized; Taiwan Manufacturing Will Continue to Remain One Generation Ahead of Overseas
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Invest Further in US up to 100bn; Intel Foundry Service Gets Direct Clients.
  • Memory Monitor: Nanya Tech Soared on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News 

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC’s Range Declining; ASE Near Parity; ChipMOS Rare Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +18.5% Premium; Wait for Lower Premium Before Going Long
  • ASE: +0.2% Premium; Near-Parity Premium is Opportunity to Long the Spread
  • ChipMOS: -3% Discount; Rare Discount is Opportunity to Long the Spread

Ping An Good Doctor (1833 HK) – The Mandatory General Offer and DeepSeek Story May Not Turn the Tide

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Recent surge of share price is driven by the craze for DeepSeek/AI in digital healthcare, not the improvement of fundamentals or effective validation of business model.So, the rally won’t last.
  • Although AI is a great story, the extent to which DeepSeek can bring substantial benefits to PAGD remains to be verified. Small revenue scale may lead to low valuation premium.
  • PAGD is expected to turn loss into profits in 2024. Short-term valuation should be lower than peers. When PAGD achieve profitability/revenue in large scale, P/B would approach the industry average.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Mar-2025): Rakuten uses AI and O-RAN to save on telecom costs, targets global growth.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Rakuten is utilizing AI and O-RAN to lower telecom costs and broaden its global footprint in the industry, focusing on efficiency and expansion.
  • IBM has launched Granite 3.2, an advanced AI platform that incorporates on-demand reasoning and vision-language model to bolster its AI capabilities, fostering innovation in the field of artificial intelligence.
  • The GSMA has revealed the four key pillars that will shape the future of 5G technology at MWC 2025, highlighting the importance of advancements in connectivity for the development of mobile networks.

Philippines Exchange (PSE PM): Steady FY24 Sets The Stage For Catalyst-Filled FY25

By Sameer Taneja

  • We summarize the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) earnings for FY24. Revenues/core earnings declined 1.2%/2.9% YoY. Inclusive of the gain in the stake of PDS, profits were up 56% YoY.
  • The outlook for 2025 is strong, bolstered by the completed acquisition of a 78.3% stake in PDS and a 75% increase in listing maintenance fees, which contribute 18% of revenues.
  • With a FY25 PE of 13.6x, over 10% cash in the market, more than 50% EBITDA, and a 7.4% dividend yield, the stock presents an attractive investment opportunity.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Shares Under Pressure as Rumours Swirl and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Shares Under Pressure as Rumours Swirl
  • StubWorld: Cheung Kong’s Geopolitics
  • Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement Updates-Performing Similar to Its Last. Past Large Deals Comparison
  • CVC Bump Higher (¥1,275) Than Their Final Price (¥1,250), Get GMO to Roll In Their 12.1%.
  • Toyo Seikan (5901) – Big New Buyback Shows The Way To a Breakout of 20yr Range
  • Kum Yang Gets Designated as an Administration Stock and To Be Deleted from KOSPI 200 Index
  • Best Ideas of 2025
  • Sapporo’s 2025 Potential Holds Limited Upside After Investor Activism’s 300% Gains
  • Macromill (3978 JP): CVC Bumps to JPY1,275 Despite Declaring the Previous Offer Final

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Shares Under Pressure as Rumours Swirl

By Arun George

  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) denied a Yomiuri article that the Board has decided not to accept an Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) bid in favour of the restructuring plan.
  • Despite the Board’s assertions that it is still having constructive discussions with Couche-Tard, its actions suggest otherwise.
  • Couche-Tard remains interested but faces increasing roadblocks. The valuation is undemanding but the news flow is unlikely to support a rerating in the near-term.

StubWorld: Cheung Kong’s Geopolitics

By David Blennerhassett

Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement Updates-Performing Similar to Its Last. Past Large Deals Comparison

By Sumeet Singh

  • Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
  • JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
  • We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.

CVC Bump Higher (¥1,275) Than Their Final Price (¥1,250), Get GMO to Roll In Their 12.1%.

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, the last day of the ¥1,250 “Final Price” CVC Tender Offer for Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), CVC has bumped price to ¥1,275 and extended another two weeks.
  • In the process, they got agreement from GMO to tender their 12.1% and GMO gets to reinvest into an 18-19% position in the Bidco. 
  • Investors are now competing against “activists” who aren’t in public markets. 20.6% of the register don’t like the ¥1,250-1,275 price either. But they aren’t selling. They’re re-buying there. You’re not.

Toyo Seikan (5901) – Big New Buyback Shows The Way To a Breakout of 20yr Range

By Travis Lundy

  • Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP) started down the “good governance path” a couple of years ago. The stock ran up. Then it drifted back lower.
  • They had promised a decent payout ratio, cross-holding sales, and “buybacks conducted in an agile manner.”
  • On Friday 28 Feb, the company announced a large buyback and future share cancellation.

Kum Yang Gets Designated as an Administration Stock and To Be Deleted from KOSPI 200 Index

By Douglas Kim

  • On 4 March, Korea Exchange announced that it will designate Kum Yang (001570 KS) as an administration stock, resulting in a deletion from KOSPI 200 index.
  • These increased penalty points and fine are mainly from the company inflating the expected performance of a Mongolian mine which the company had plans to acquire shares.
  • We continue to remain negative on Kum Yang. As a result of designation as an administration stock and deletion from KOSPI 200, investors will likely push down this stock further.

Best Ideas of 2025

By Richard Howe

  • The range of ideas is broad. The smallest market cap is a $15MM Canadian micro-cap that is trading below its net cash, and the largest is an $25BN market cap online travel company that is gobbling up its own shares.
  • We have ideas profiled from Poland, Canada, India, Austria, Argentina, Italy, and of course, the United States.
  • The report will start with my personal favorite idea and then cover the additional ideas in alphabetical order.

Sapporo’s 2025 Potential Holds Limited Upside After Investor Activism’s 300% Gains

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)’s beer, food, and soft drinks businesses are now trading near 19.0x our 2025 OP estimate, suggesting some remaining upside, especially if guidance is revised upward.
  • We believe the company’s 2025 guidance is overly conservative, as Sapporo stands to benefit the most from Japan’s liquor tax revisions.
  • If growth momentum persists, we estimate 2025 OP could reach ¥22.3bn, surpassing the current ¥17.5bn guidance, though the 300% upside driven by investor activism has mostly run its course.

Macromill (3978 JP): CVC Bumps to JPY1,275 Despite Declaring the Previous Offer Final

By Arun George

  • Despite declaring the previous JPY1,250 offer final, CVC has bumped its Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) offer by 2.0% to JPY1,275. 
  • CVC has secured an irrevocable from GMO. The total irrevocable represents a 23.67% ownership ratio. Despite the bump and GMO irrevocable, success still hangs in the balance.
  • Securing TriVista’s support remains elusive, and CVC could try to lower the minimum tendering condition. The downside is low, as the backend will have support on a deal break.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Macro: [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/09] WTI Fell for Sixth Week on Trade Tensions and Demand Worries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/09] WTI Fell for Sixth Week on Trade Tensions and Demand Worries
  • Thailand Rubber: Sri Trang Makes A Spectacular Foray In 2024, NER Too Impresses
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/09] Henry Hub Falls on Milder Weather and Weaker Demand Outlook
  • [Precious Insights 2025/09] Gold Miners Surge Amid Market Volatility, Protective Pisitioning Builds
  • Overweight Europe and Japan Equities
  • [IO Technicals Weekly 2025/09] Iron Ore Prices Decline Amid Trade Tariffs and Weakening Demand
  • HEM: Pausing Policy Easing
  • Germany: Merz Call for ‘independence from America’ Could Be Ill-Timed Self-Goal

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/09] WTI Fell for Sixth Week on Trade Tensions and Demand Worries

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures fell by 0.9% for the week ending 28/Feb, marking its sixth consecutive weekly drop. Prices fell due to trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and demand concerns.
  • WTI fell 3.8% in February, its largest monthly drop since September 2024, as economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and bearish economic indicators pressured prices.
  • WTI OI PCR rose to 0.98 on 28/Feb from 0.95 on 21/Feb. Call OI increased by 7.4% WoW, while put OI rose by 10.5%.

Thailand Rubber: Sri Trang Makes A Spectacular Foray In 2024, NER Too Impresses

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Sri Trang posts US$48.8 mn profit, reversing loss of US$12.7 mn in 2023  
  • Sri Trang sells 133,163 tons of EUDR rubber in 2024  
  • North East Rubber setting up plant in Ivory Coast  

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/09] Henry Hub Falls on Milder Weather and Weaker Demand Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 28/Feb, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 9.5% on the back of milder weather forecasts and expectations of weakening demand.
  • Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 1.00 on 28/Feb from 1.04 on 21/Feb. Call OI fell by 9.5% WoW, while put OI decreased by 13.3%.
  • Put OI was notable at the 2, 2.5, and 3 strikes, while call OI was concentrated at 4, 5, and 6.

[Precious Insights 2025/09] Gold Miners Surge Amid Market Volatility, Protective Pisitioning Builds

By Pranay Yadav

  • Gold miners’ revenue grew 4% QoQ in Q1 2025, the highest in 15+ years, driven by rising gold prices and demand.
  • Gold markets face volatility with rising COMEX inventories and widening futures-spot spreads, but signs of stabilization are emerging.
  • GLD ETF is bearish, breaking key support, while options data show bullish sentiment with strong call interest above $3000.

Overweight Europe and Japan Equities

By Sharmila Whelan

  • On European equities be discerning. While there are some green shoots the European economy is fragile. Value and quality stocks are recommended. 
  • Sector bias is towards consumer staples, tech hardware and defence before moving into consumer discretionary and industrials later in the year. .
  • Japan – overweight equites – industrials, banks and consumer discretions –  unhedged and underweight government bonds.  

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/09] Iron Ore Prices Decline Amid Trade Tariffs and Weakening Demand

By Pranay Yadav

  • Iron ore futures fell 6% last week, closing at USD 102.00/ton on Feb 28, below key support levels, with bearish momentum confirmed by technical indicators.
  • Global trade tariffs pressured sentiment, as U.S., Vietnam, and South Korea imposed levies on Chinese steel, impacting an estimated USD 7 billion market and dampening demand.
  • China’s Two Sessions could drive volatility, with historical patterns showing pre-meeting gains followed by post-policy declines, potentially influencing iron ore price recovery.

HEM: Pausing Policy Easing

By Phil Rush

  • Central banks are advised to slow, pause, or stop reducing rates due to rising inflation and labour costs.
  • Inflation is unexpectedly increasing, and labour costs are exceeding target-consistent levels.
  • Monetary policy is almost neutral according to activity trends, but rate hikes in 2026 could counteract unnecessary easing.

Germany: Merz Call for ‘independence from America’ Could Be Ill-Timed Self-Goal

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • Conservative (CDU/CSU) chancellor-elect Merz should be able to form a stable coalition with SPD, but his “independence from America” requires massive constitutional amendments by 25Mar’25 allowing huge defense/infrastructure spending boosts. 
  • This is a self-goal: the time for independence from America was 3 years ago, when instead Germany followed Biden’s command to self-harm itself with a ban on Russian energy imports. 
  • If Germany successfully leads an EU defense/infrastructure spending boom, Trump would still achieve his goal. But Germany would have missed the easier route to recovery via liberalized Russian energy imports. 

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Australia: Cash Converters Intl, Iron Ore, Verbrec and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Cash Converters International – Delivering strongly on transition
  • [IO Technicals Weekly 2025/09] Iron Ore Prices Decline Amid Trade Tariffs and Weakening Demand
  • Verbrec Ltd – Discipline a saviour in macro headwind

Cash Converters International – Delivering strongly on transition

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Cash Converters International (ASX:CCV) is a consumer finance company operating as a service provider, owner and franchisor of second-hand goods and financial services stores in Australia and internationally.
  • CCV has released a strong H1 25 result, delivering operating EBITDA growth of 12% over the previous corresponding period (pcp) to $36.5m (directly in-line with the RaaS forecast of $36.5m but with some changes in mix) and operating NPAT growth of 24% to $12.2m (a strong 8.9% beat over the RaaS forecast of $11.1m driven largely by reduced interest expense on lower-than-forecast debt balance and mix change).
  • The result clearly illustrates the impact of the changed strategy of the business with the loan book transitioning away from legacy products and into medium-sized loans and the new line-of-credit (LoC) product.

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/09] Iron Ore Prices Decline Amid Trade Tariffs and Weakening Demand

By Pranay Yadav

  • Iron ore futures fell 6% last week, closing at USD 102.00/ton on Feb 28, below key support levels, with bearish momentum confirmed by technical indicators.
  • Global trade tariffs pressured sentiment, as U.S., Vietnam, and South Korea imposed levies on Chinese steel, impacting an estimated USD 7 billion market and dampening demand.
  • China’s Two Sessions could drive volatility, with historical patterns showing pre-meeting gains followed by post-policy declines, potentially influencing iron ore price recovery.

Verbrec Ltd – Discipline a saviour in macro headwind

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Verbrec Limited (ASX:VBC) provides engineering, asset management, infrastructure services and training to the energy, mining, infrastructure and defence industries in Australia, New Zealand, PNG and the Pacific Islands.
  • The company has released its H1 FY25 results delivering a profitable outcome for the third consecutive period, albeit below RaaS forecasts predominantly due to macro headwinds resulting in lower-than-forecast revenue on the back of project delays.
  • Management cited that client feedback suggests “inflationary pressures, uncertainty prior to election results (both international and domestic) and shortage of qualified engineering resources caused deferrals of several notable prospective project opportunities that were expected to commence in H1 FY2025”.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Kum Yang , Hanwha Systems Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Local Brokers Sound Off on 40% IPO Lock-Up—A Major Setup for Offshore Traders
  • KOSPI200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Kumyang (001570 KS)’s Designation Opens Up an Index Spot
  • Kum Yang Gets Designated as an Administration Stock and To Be Deleted from KOSPI 200 Index
  • Hanwha Systems: Expand 3rd Party Allocation Capital Increase Limit from 20% to 30% of Issued Shares
  • Kospi Index Options Weekly (Feb 24 – 28): Decline Accelerates Through 350

Local Brokers Sound Off on 40% IPO Lock-Up—A Major Setup for Offshore Traders

By Sanghyun Park

  • This 40% rule will distort bookbuilding, force down-pricing, choke float post-listing, and amplify volatility.
  • Offshore investors like us benefit most—cheap IPO pricing with no lock-up. Local brokers see this as a giveaway to foreign funds and pushed back hard last Friday.
  • FSS won’t budge—40% lock-up is happening. If issues arise post-implementation, they might adjust later.

KOSPI200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Kumyang (001570 KS)’s Designation Opens Up an Index Spot

By Brian Freitas

Kum Yang Gets Designated as an Administration Stock and To Be Deleted from KOSPI 200 Index

By Douglas Kim

  • On 4 March, Korea Exchange announced that it will designate Kum Yang (001570 KS) as an administration stock, resulting in a deletion from KOSPI 200 index.
  • These increased penalty points and fine are mainly from the company inflating the expected performance of a Mongolian mine which the company had plans to acquire shares.
  • We continue to remain negative on Kum Yang. As a result of designation as an administration stock and deletion from KOSPI 200, investors will likely push down this stock further.

Hanwha Systems: Expand 3rd Party Allocation Capital Increase Limit from 20% to 30% of Issued Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • In the past week, Hanwha Systems announced that it plans to expand third party allocation capital increase limit from 20% to 30% of issued shares in its articles of incorporation.
  • This plan to significantly increase the amount of capital raise limit sets the stage for a major capital increase by Hanwha Systems in 2025, in our view. 
  • Unlike in 2021 when we were bullish on Hanwha Systems post a large-scale capital raise, we are more cautious on the company’s potential new large scale capital raise this year. 

Kospi Index Options Weekly (Feb 24 – 28): Decline Accelerates Through 350

By John Ley

  • Kospi records one of its five largest declines of the past year on Friday.
  • Volatility responded sharply to the accelerating selloff, closely tracking the market’s downward momentum.
  • With the sharp decline and surge in implied volatility, hedging considerations are explored.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Thailand: SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Thailand Rubber: Sri Trang Makes A Spectacular Foray In 2024, NER Too Impresses

Thailand Rubber: Sri Trang Makes A Spectacular Foray In 2024, NER Too Impresses

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Sri Trang posts US$48.8 mn profit, reversing loss of US$12.7 mn in 2023  
  • Sri Trang sells 133,163 tons of EUDR rubber in 2024  
  • North East Rubber setting up plant in Ivory Coast  

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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