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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Macro: The Dollar Is Smiling But It’s Not Happy :( and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • The Dollar Is Smiling But It’s Not Happy 🙁
  • CX Daily: How Chinese Expertise Opened Up $20 Billion African Mine
  • Unpacking the Henry Hub Rally and the Forces Driving It
  • Oil futures: Crude ends lower as Russian shipments eyed
  • Asian Equities: Policy Focus Reflected in Sector-Wise IPO Revival in Leading Markets
  • Oil futures: Prices higher after soft start to session on surplus fears
  • Egypt (November 18th 2025)


The Dollar Is Smiling But It’s Not Happy 🙁

By David Mudd

  • The dollar has strengthened in the face of weakening equity markets, however it is not the Dollar Smile theory supporting its move this time.
  • A more hawkish Fed signals a break with past conditioning for a Fed Put to bail out the stock market.  Post-COVID inflation caused by Fed policies will constrain aggressive easing.
  • Safe-Haven support for the dollar and Treasuries broke down during the April selloff, indicating a change in foreigners’ perception of holding USD assets and leading to significantly increased dollar hedging.

CX Daily: How Chinese Expertise Opened Up $20 Billion African Mine

By Caixin Global

  • How China Unlocked Simandou to Reshape the Global Iron Ore Trade. On an October morning along the Atlantic coast of West Africa, a bulk carrier named Winning Youth waited quietly in the port of Morebaya.
  • It carried nearly 10,000 metric tons of blood-red earth, freshly extracted from deep inside Guinea’s remote southeastern mountains.
  • The iron ore, loaded days earlier on to the first train to run on the Trans-Guinea Railway, had traveled hundreds of kilometers across ridges to reach this point.

Unpacking the Henry Hub Rally and the Forces Driving It

By Suhas Reddy

  • Surging U.S. LNG exports, stronger power demand, and shifting weather models have tightened fundamentals, driving Henry Hub futures to near three-year highs despite record output and above-average storage levels.
  • Henry Hub’s rally since mid-October has been driven by record LNG exports and colder winter forecasts, which outweighed rising U.S. production and above-average storage levels.
  • Options positioning shows short-term caution but growing medium-term optimism, with higher call interest across later contracts signaling expectations for firmer Henry Hub prices into early-2026.

Oil futures: Crude ends lower as Russian shipments eyed

By Quantum Commodity Intelligence

  • Crude oil futures ended lower Monday despite rebounding from a soft start in response to reports crude loadings had resumed at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
  • Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $64.09/b (2031 GMT) versus Friday’s settle of $64.39/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI settled at $59.91/b against a previous close of $60.09/b.
  • Ship tracking data showed two oil tankers had docked at Novorossiysk over the weekend, while Reuters quoted local officials saying that crude loadings had resumed following Friday’s drone strikes.

Asian Equities: Policy Focus Reflected in Sector-Wise IPO Revival in Leading Markets

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • Asian IPOs’ spike in 2025 (21% higher till October) has been driven primarily by HK/China. Indian IPOs are almost at the same level as in a very strong 2024.
  • Policy thrust for “New Productive Forces” are driving capital raising from industrials, materials, technology and utilities and shall continue to do so. Healthcare should also be a buoyant capital raiser.
  • India’s policy focus on manufacturing and listing of PE-funded companies should drive IPOs from industrials, materials and consumer discretionary. Financials shall also remain a large issuer sector.

Oil futures: Prices higher after soft start to session on surplus fears

By Quantum Commodity Intelligence

  • Crude oil futures ended higher after a soft trading session earlier when immediate concerns around disruptions to Russian crude receded as loadings resumed from the crucial Novorossiysk port.
  • Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent futures were last trading at $65/b (2017 GMT) versus Monday’s settle of $64.20/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.78/b against a previous close of $59.91/b.
  • Benchmarks have struggled in the early part of the week after loadings resumed from the key Black Sea oil hub following a two-day suspension in the wake of drone strikes.

Egypt (November 18th 2025)

By Denis Collot

  • IMF’s mission in Cairo early December.                           
  • CBE sees the financing gap increasing for the next 2 years.
  • The Pound deals below 47, best since May 2024. Offshore investors keep buying bills.

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Most Read: Tsuruha Holdings, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), China Hongqiao, Capricorn Metals, Digital Holdings Inc, Ping An Healthcare and Technology, Daihen Corp, Isupetasys and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25
  • China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement
  • S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 25): Changes Across Indices as Positioning Picks Up
  • CATL IPO Lockup – US$5.3bn Lockup Release, with H-Shares at Significant Premium to A-Shares
  • [Japan Activism/M&A] Hakuhodo DY Lowers Digital Holdings (2389 JP) TOB Threshold, Bumps a Tiny 2.2%
  • KWEB Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Potential Inclusions in December
  • [Japan Offering] DAIHEN Corp (6622 JP) Sees Crossholders Selling 25% of Max Real World Float
  • KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Nearly Perfect
  • Digital Holdings (2389 JP): Hakuhodo Bumps and Lowers the Minimum Tendering Condition


[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

By Travis Lundy


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25

By Brian Freitas

  • Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 December.
  • We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
  • CATL (3750 HK) will have a 6-month trading history by implementation of the index changes and is a high probability inclusion to the index. But cornerstone lock-up ends tomorrow.

China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement

By Brian Freitas

  • China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is looking to raise US$1.2bn via a top-up placement at an indicative price of HK$29.2/share, a 9.6% discount from the last close.
  • There will be limited passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares. However, there are a couple of potential index inclusions in December.
  • Then there will be more passive buying from trackers of a global index, Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) next year.

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 25): Changes Across Indices as Positioning Picks Up

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 2 changes each for the ASX50 and ASX100 indices and 7 changes for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December.
  • Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)
  • The forecast adds have outperformed (and continue to outperform) the forecast deletes to the S&P/ASX 100 Index and the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)

CATL IPO Lockup – US$5.3bn Lockup Release, with H-Shares at Significant Premium to A-Shares

By Sumeet Singh

  • CATL (3750 HK) raised around US$5.2bn in its H-share listing in May 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
  • CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

[Japan Activism/M&A] Hakuhodo DY Lowers Digital Holdings (2389 JP) TOB Threshold, Bumps a Tiny 2.2%

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) announced changes to the terms of its Tender Offer for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP), which faces an overbidder in SilverCape. 
  • Hakuhodo had bid ¥1,970. Silvercape came over the top with a proposed ¥2,380 but a delay for approvals. DH is fighting against SilverCape because of “remaining minority shareholder risk.”
  • That’s garbage. Utter blatherskite. Trumpworthy trumpery. Now Hakuhodo DY has lowered the minimum threshold making it hard to miss, and raised the price 2.3% to ¥2,015.

KWEB Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Potential Inclusions in December

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the December rebalance of the CSI Overseas China Internet Index ended 31 October. The changes should be announced 28 November and implemented close on 12 December.
  • There could be 6 inclusions for the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) in December with most inclusions being high probability.
  • Impact on the inclusions varies between 1.3-5 days of ADV. There will be stocks with float increases and some capping changes.

[Japan Offering] DAIHEN Corp (6622 JP) Sees Crossholders Selling 25% of Max Real World Float

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday saw the announcement of a secondary offering structured like a delayed pricing ABO.
  • 1.5mm shares which is 7.5% of shares out, 25% of Max Real World Float, and 9 days of ADV. There’s more cross-holdings to come out later at some point.
  • Though it is not particularly expensive, Momentum is not this stock’s friend right now.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Nearly Perfect

By Brian Freitas


Digital Holdings (2389 JP): Hakuhodo Bumps and Lowers the Minimum Tendering Condition

By Arun George

  • Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) increased its Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) tender offer price by 2.3% to JPY2,015, 7.1% below the last close and 15.3% below SilverCape’s JPY2,380 offer.
  • The lower limit has been reduced to a 24.67% ownership ratio. Hakuhodo’s confidence in passing the EGM share consolidation vote relies on AGM voting trends and passive votes.
  • Hakuhodo’s acceptances as of 28 October exceed the lower limit. The revised Hakudodo offer will severely dent the chances of SilverCape’s offer.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Atlas Arteria, RPMGlobal Holdings Limited, Singapore Airlines, Asian Terminals, Sanyu Construction, Federal Signal, Sodick Co Ltd, U-Haul Holding , UOB and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM Creeps To A ~35% Stake
  • RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Scheme Vote on 19 December
  • Singapore Airlines (SIA): Saddled with India Growth Story
  • Container Port Terminal Screener November 2025: Strong Structural Future Growth And Great Q3 Results
  • Primer: Sanyu Construction (1841 JP) – Nov 2025
  • Federal Signal Corporation Is Turning Acquisitions Into a Profit Engine — But Can Hog Technologies Keep Exceeding Expectations?
  • Sodick (6143 JP) – Consolidating the Recovery Profile
  • UHAL: U-Haul Reports 2Q FY2026 Financial Results. Revenues were slightly above expectations
  • Tan Kok Huat, CEO of Reclaims Global, Boosts Stake


Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM Creeps To A ~35% Stake

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 8th June 2022, IFM Global Infrastructure Fund announced a 15% stake in Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) (ATLAX), and subsequently floated the possibility of a non-binding proposal. 
  • However, IFM’s request, at the time, for limited company information on ATLAX , a US/Europe toll-road play, came to nought.
  • Undeterred, IFM continues to accumulate shares. Reportedly, IFM now holds ~35% after picking up 1.9% this morning.

RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Scheme Vote on 19 December

By Arun George

  • The RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU) IE considers Caterpillar Inc (CAT US)’s scheme offer at A$5.00 to be fair and reasonable, as it falls within its valuation range (A$4.43-A$5.12).
  • The key scheme conditions are shareholder approval, FIRB approval, and ACCC approval. Regulatory approvals are expected to be forthcoming, and the scheme vote carries a low risk.
  • The offer is attractive. At the last close and for an 18 February 2026 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.5%/10.2%.  

Singapore Airlines (SIA): Saddled with India Growth Story

By Henry Soediarko

  • Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) is growing its footprint in India, presenting an interesting opportunity for long term investors. 
  • However, it may come slightly costly in the near term as Indian aviation infrastructure is not that ready just yet. 
  • Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) does not trade at a significant discount to its peers from PER and PBR. 

Container Port Terminal Screener November 2025: Strong Structural Future Growth And Great Q3 Results

By Sameer Taneja

  • We strongly recommend looking at container port terminal companies with monopoly/ duopoly, or oligopoly dynamics, as pricing power appears strong there. 
  • After their 30% tariff hike, Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK) reported a strong Q3, and ICTSI (ICT PM), following tariff hikes across most of its ports, also reported 25% earnings growth. 
  • We like Asian Terminals (ATI PM) for its cheap valuation/duopoly and ICTSI (ICT PM) for its strategy of acquiring terminals with a monopolistic presence. 

Primer: Sanyu Construction (1841 JP) – Nov 2025

By αSK

  • Sanyu Construction has demonstrated a remarkable turnaround, with stellar three-year growth in net income and EPS, driven by significant margin recovery. This positions it as a compelling value and growth story within its sector.
  • The company’s valuation appears attractive, trading at a low P/E ratio of approximately 7.1x and a significant discount to its book value (0.29x P/B ratio), which may appeal to value-oriented investors.
  • Despite recent strong performance, the company operates in the highly cyclical and competitive Japanese construction market, facing headwinds from labor shortages and rising material costs, which introduces a medium level of uncertainty to its future earnings.

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Federal Signal Corporation Is Turning Acquisitions Into a Profit Engine — But Can Hog Technologies Keep Exceeding Expectations?

By Baptista Research

  • Federal Signal Corporation’s third-quarter results for 2025 demonstrated significant financial growth and strategic progress, balanced with certain challenges.
  • The conglomerate reported a 17% year-over-year increase in net sales, reaching $555 million.
  • This rise was driven by organic growth of 11% and contributions from recent acquisitions, namely Hog Technologies and Standard, which added a combined $30 million to the quarterly sales.

Sodick (6143 JP) – Consolidating the Recovery Profile

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Stable performance maintained – With demand stemming from technology (chiefly optical connectors), aerospace, and medical sectors, Sodick’s Q1-3 FY12/25 results demonstrated a sustained recovery YoY.
  • Order visibility for the mainstay EDM units remains high, with Q3 FY12/25 orders rising 18.9% YoY, driven primarily by demand from China.
  • Quarterly GPM of 36.2% in Q3 FY12/25 indicates progress toward improving the sales mix by selling high-value-added products. 

UHAL: U-Haul Reports 2Q FY2026 Financial Results. Revenues were slightly above expectations

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • U-Haul Holding Company is the parent company of U-Haul International, the world’s largest consumer truck and trailer rental company.
  • U-Haul is also the third largest self-storage operator in North America.
  • As management continues to expand capacity in the self-storage segment and U-Box, three major initiatives in the Moving & Storage segments are being implemented addressing depreciation expense, expanding the rental dealer network and increasing revenue-generating capacity through the removal of delinquent self-storage tenants.

Tan Kok Huat, CEO of Reclaims Global, Boosts Stake

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutions recorded a net inflow of S$236 million in Singapore stocks from Nov 7 to Nov 13, reversing prior outflows.
  • United Overseas Bank led share buybacks with 1,071,900 shares at an average price of S$33.95, totaling S$56.5 million.
  • Fuxing China Group raised S$1.245 million through a placement of 3 million shares at S$0.415 each.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): OpenAI. Is The Narrative Slowly Disintegrating ? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • OpenAI. Is The Narrative Slowly Disintegrating ?
  • Ohayo Japan | Tech Drag Deepens as Fed-Cut Hopes Fade
  • Singapore Market Roundup (17-Nov-2025): Food Empire shares may hit $3 as TP rises to $3.18.
  • Japan Morning Connection: Tech Skittish Ahead of NVDA but Memory Continues to Run
  • Allied Blenders and Distillers: The Transformation Story from Mass Market to Luxury Spirits
  • Monday Delight: 17/11/25
  • Thematic Report- India’s Dairy Sector: A Volatile Quarter, A Stronger Future
  • US Banks – CP at +19% YoY, LDR Expansion Accelerates, Weekly Loans +5% YoY


OpenAI. Is The Narrative Slowly Disintegrating ?

By William Keating

  • Fresh on the heels of his podcast meltdown, Mr. Altman has had to scramble to walk back his CFO’s assertion that a potential federal bailout was on her agenda.
  • One of Mr. Altman’s revenue generating ideas is to lease AI compute directly to others. Of course, that’s compute capacity he can’t afford to purchase in the first place. 
  • Mr. Altman wants OpenAI to be all things to all people all at once. That’s a strategy that rarely ends well. Let’s see..

Ohayo Japan | Tech Drag Deepens as Fed-Cut Hopes Fade

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks fell for a third session amid tech weakness and fading Fed-cut expectations, with Nvidia down and Bitcoin slipping below $95k as rate-cut odds dropped.
  • Fed funds futures now price only ~45% chance of December cut (down from >90% a month ago); Governor Waller backs 25bp easing to counter labor-market weakening.
  • Panasonic will sell 80% of its housing equipment unit to YKK as part of a major restructuring to shed underperforming assets and cut 10,000 jobs, retaining a 20% stake.

Singapore Market Roundup (17-Nov-2025): Food Empire shares may hit $3 as TP rises to $3.18.

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • Food Empire shares may surpass $3 as CGS raises TP to $3.18 after record revenue.
  • Maybank cuts Sanli Environmental target price after 1HFY2026 results.
  • Frencken’s 3QFY2025 earnings rise 7.5% to $9.9M; forecasts weaker 2HFY2025 revenue.

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Skittish Ahead of NVDA but Memory Continues to Run

By Andrew Jackson

  • MS downgrades PC makers on risk high memory prices eat into margins.
  • China angst against Takaichi TW comments will cause JP rails, hotels etc. to fall further.
  • Advantest CEO meeting yesterday unlikely enough to appease investor demands after huge run.

Allied Blenders and Distillers: The Transformation Story from Mass Market to Luxury Spirits

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Allied Blenders & Distillers is transitioning from a mass-market to a premium-led portfolio, with strong brands like Officer’s Choice, ICONiQ White, and Sterling Reserve driving growth.
  • This transformation aligns ABD with India’s growing premium alcohol market, driven by shifting consumer preferences, premiumisation trends, and increased disposable income, positioning the company for future growth.
  • ABD’s strategic focus on premiumisation, combined with robust capex plans, positions it to capitalize on evolving market dynamics, though regulatory risks and competition remain key challenges.

Monday Delight: 17/11/25

By Contrarian Cashflows

  • This is your Monday morning dose of inspiration. Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention.

  • These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.

  • Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research.


Thematic Report- India’s Dairy Sector: A Volatile Quarter, A Stronger Future

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • The dairy sector reported a mixed quarter, with strong demand for value-added products but pressure from higher milk procurement costs and weather disruptions affecting overall profitability.
  • Dairy supports rural incomes and shapes food inflation. Rising input costs, climate risks and the fast expansion of value-added categories are influencing margins and future industry direction.
  • Near-Term earnings remain volatile, but the long-term shift toward organised, branded and value-added dairy products continues, making this quarter a useful test of procurement strength and strategy.

US Banks – CP at +19% YoY, LDR Expansion Accelerates, Weekly Loans +5% YoY

By Daniel Tabbush

  • There is good HFD out from the Fed on weekly balance sheets and commercial paper outstanding, suggesting continued underlying strength
  • CP outstanding for non-financials is rising at rate of 19% YoY in most recent week, which is relatively strong growth for short duration working capital
  • Weekly loan growth data is 5.09% YoY for week of 5 November, one of highest growth rates in recent weeks, with LDR expansion accelerating

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Daily Brief Utilities: Equatorial Energia SA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Primer: Equatorial Energia SA (EQTL3 BZ) – Nov 2025


Primer: Equatorial Energia SA (EQTL3 BZ) – Nov 2025

By αSK

  • Equatorial Energia is a key player in the Brazilian electricity sector, distinguished by its proven expertise in acquiring and turning around underperforming distribution assets, driving operational efficiency and growth.
  • The company is pursuing a multi-utility strategy, diversifying from its core electricity distribution business into renewable generation, transmission, and sanitation, creating new avenues for growth and value creation.
  • Key challenges include navigating Brazil’s complex regulatory environment, managing high leverage from its acquisitive strategy, and addressing execution risks associated with integrating new assets and ventures in different sectors.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), WT Microelectronics, Tencent, Baidu, Klook, TPG Telecom , Alphabet , CELSYS, Intel Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25
  • WT Micro GDR Offering – Slightly Larger Deal to Digest, Discount Mostly in Line With Recent Deals
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Wk To 14 Nov 2025) – Strong SOE/Energy/Financials Buying on BABA Sales
  • CATL IPO Lockup – US$5.3bn Lockup Release, with H-Shares at Significant Premium to A-Shares
  • Baidu Declares Chip War With Huawei & Nvidia—Is China Backing It?
  • Klook Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Disclosures Lagging
  • TPG Telecom Placement: Widely Anticipated but Large Deal to Digest
  • Alphabet Bags Warren Buffett’s Billions—Here’s What Triggered the Bet!
  • CELSYS (3663 JP): Q3 FY12/25 flash update and revision of full-year forecasts
  • IFS Comeback: Apple, Qualcomm, and Tesla Validating Intel’s Packaging Advantage


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25

By Brian Freitas

  • Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 December.
  • We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
  • CATL (3750 HK) will have a 6-month trading history by implementation of the index changes and is a high probability inclusion to the index. But cornerstone lock-up ends tomorrow.

WT Micro GDR Offering – Slightly Larger Deal to Digest, Discount Mostly in Line With Recent Deals

By Akshat Shah

  • WT Microelectronics (3036 TT) (WT Micro) is looking to raise up to US$393m, selling 90m shares(18m GDRs)via a GDR offering. It is also selling a two-year zero-coupon CB to raiseUS$350m.
  • Similar to previous GDR listings, the firm has undergone a long drawn out process prior to launching the deal, having to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Wk To 14 Nov 2025) – Strong SOE/Energy/Financials Buying on BABA Sales

By Travis Lundy

  • HK$100bn a day of gross SOUTHBOUND activity with US$600mm+ of net buying on average. Net flows continue to be impressive. SOEs/Energy/Financials dominate.
  • Watch for news on the Dual Counter (RMB) Trading eligibility for SOUTHBOUND near-term. That could up the pace of things.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

CATL IPO Lockup – US$5.3bn Lockup Release, with H-Shares at Significant Premium to A-Shares

By Sumeet Singh

  • CATL (3750 HK) raised around US$5.2bn in its H-share listing in May 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
  • CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Baidu Declares Chip War With Huawei & Nvidia—Is China Backing It?

By Baptista Research

  • Baidu, Inc. delivered a solid performance in the first quarter of 2025, with its Baidu Core division reporting a 7% year-over-year revenue increase, reaching RMB 25.5 billion.
  • This growth was primarily driven by a substantial surge in its AI cloud business, which saw a 42% increase year-over-year, contributing significantly to Baidu Core’s overall revenue.
  • A notable development within this business unit is the expansion of the AI cloud’s role in Baidu’s operations, now accounting for 26% of Baidu Core’s revenue, up from 20% in the previous year.

Klook Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Disclosures Lagging

By Sumeet Singh

  • Klook (KLK US), a pan-regional experiences platform in Asia-Pacific, aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing.
  • Klook connects travelers with merchants providing a vast array of activities, tours, attractions and other travel services across the globe.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

TPG Telecom Placement: Widely Anticipated but Large Deal to Digest

By Nicholas Tan

  • TPG Telecom (TPG AU) is looking to raise around US$359m from a primary placement.
  • This is a large deal to digest, representing 111.2 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 7.8% of total shares outstanding.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Alphabet Bags Warren Buffett’s Billions—Here’s What Triggered the Bet!

By Baptista Research

  • Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has disclosed a significant new position in Alphabet Inc., acquiring 17.9 million shares valued at approximately $4.9 billion during Q3 2025.
  • This development marks a notable strategic shift by Berkshire, as it trimmed positions in long-held names such as Apple Inc. and Bank of America while initiating and expanding positions in Alphabet, UnitedHealth, and Chubb.
  • Alphabet’s shares climbed in extended trading following the announcement, which signals investor enthusiasm over Buffett’s endorsement.

CELSYS (3663 JP): Q3 FY12/25 flash update and revision of full-year forecasts

By Shared Research

  • Celsys reported cumulative Q3 FY12/25 sales of JPY7.0bn (+15.9% YoY), operating profit of JPY2.2bn (+39.0% YoY).
  • Celsys revised FY12/25 forecast: sales JPY9.3bn, operating profit JPY2.9bn, net income JPY1.4bn, citing strong subscription growth.
  • Creator Support segment sales JPY6.0bn (+19.4% YoY), driven by CLIP STUDIO PAINT upgrades and global expansion efforts.

IFS Comeback: Apple, Qualcomm, and Tesla Validating Intel’s Packaging Advantage

By Raghav Vashisht

  • Apple, Qualcomm, and Tesla are all hiring for EMIB-class advanced packaging, signalling an industry shift toward tech where Intel holds a structural edge.
  • Intel’s “packaging-first” strategy outlined last year is now visible in real customer activity; foundry share will be won through packaging long before leading-edge wafers.
  • With TSMC carrying excess capacity, IFS enters a rare window where early 18A traction and EMIB pull-through can create a credible path to 14A volume wins.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: China Hongqiao, Capricorn Metals, Chuangxin Industries, Sakata Inx Corp, Alkane Resources, Rubber Future SGX TSR20, Moresco Corp, Rayonier Advanced Materials, Spanish Mountain Gold and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement
  • China Hongqiao Placement: Good Valuation but Likely Opportunistic, on the Back of Chuangxin Listing
  • S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 25): Changes Across Indices as Positioning Picks Up
  • Chuangxin Pre-IPO: Increasing Exposure to Volatile Alumina; Offered at Premium to Peers
  • [Japan Offering] Sakata Inx (4633 JP) Selldown by Financial Crossholders
  • Alkane Resources — Re-evaluating the new Alkane
  • Weak Demand Lingers Amid Tariff Turbulence, Impacting Thai Rubber Exports
  • Q2 Follow-Up: MORESCO (5018 JP) – November 10, 2025
  • RYAM: Softness in Non-Core Segments Drives Lower Guidance, Even as Specialties Business Improves
  • SPA: More Drill Results Above Resource Grades


China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement

By Brian Freitas

  • China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is looking to raise US$1.2bn via a top-up placement at an indicative price of HK$29.2/share, a 9.6% discount from the last close.
  • There will be limited passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares. However, there are a couple of potential index inclusions in December.
  • Then there will be more passive buying from trackers of a global index, Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) next year.

China Hongqiao Placement: Good Valuation but Likely Opportunistic, on the Back of Chuangxin Listing

By Nicholas Tan

  • China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is looking to raise around US$1.2bn from a primary placement.
  • This represents 9.1 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 2.9% of total shares outstanding.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 25): Changes Across Indices as Positioning Picks Up

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 2 changes each for the ASX50 and ASX100 indices and 7 changes for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December.
  • Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)
  • The forecast adds have outperformed (and continue to outperform) the forecast deletes to the S&P/ASX 100 Index and the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)

Chuangxin Pre-IPO: Increasing Exposure to Volatile Alumina; Offered at Premium to Peers

By Nicholas Tan

  • Chuangxin Industries (CXI HK) is looking to raise up to US$700m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • It is focused on alumina refining and aluminum smelting within the upstream of the aluminum industry chain.
  • In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

[Japan Offering] Sakata Inx (4633 JP) Selldown by Financial Crossholders

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday post-close, Sakata Inx Corp (4633 JP) announced a ¥6bn+ selldown offering by financial crossholders. There may be others to come, but not clear how much.
  • The company has had a good couple of years, the stock has reached book value. Optimised balance sheet ROE now clears 10%.
  • Index impact is limited in all respects. Low vol, low multiple, decent dividend, high earnings progression on decent business growth are all positive factors. 

Alkane Resources — Re-evaluating the new Alkane

By Edison Investment Research

Since completing its merger with Mandalay Resources on 5 August, Alkane has 1) provided guidance for the combined group for FY26, 2) updated group reserves and resources and 3) released its Quarterly Activities Report for Q126. In the wake of these announcements, we forecast that the ‘new Alkane’ will produce c 158.8koz (plus c 4.3koz AuE in the form of antimony) in FY26 (cf 70.1koz in FY25) and that the merger will prove transformative to both its scale and valuation, including achieving the size required for inclusion in the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) and the ASX 300 index (now confirmed).


Weak Demand Lingers Amid Tariff Turbulence, Impacting Thai Rubber Exports

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Thailand’s rubber exports up by .5% MoM to 204,095 MT in Sept

  • Chinese imports decline while US imports sharply rise

  • Significant disruption to production due to rains

    Thailand, which continued to witness unusually heavy rains during its ongoing production season, saw rubber export volume increasing marginally from August to September, while the returns also increased correspondingly as tight supply prevented prices from falling further.


Q2 Follow-Up: MORESCO (5018 JP) – November 10, 2025

By Sessa Investment Research

  • H1 FY2026/2 Results Review: In H1 FY2026/2, MORESCO CORPORATION (hereinafter, the Company) recorded net sales of JPY 16,865 mn (-1.4% YoY), due to lower automobile production and weaker demand for hot melt adhesives.
  • However, operating profit rose significantly to JPY 949 mn (+41.5% YoY), supported by the expansion of high-value-added products and tighter control of SG&A expenses.
  • The Special lubricants segment achieved higher sales driven by strong performance in cutting fluids and hard disk (HD) surface lubricants, while die casting lubricants declined. Sales in the Hot melt adhesives segment fell 8.1% YoY, whereas the liquid paraffins and sulfonates segment rose 6.1% YoY. 

RYAM: Softness in Non-Core Segments Drives Lower Guidance, Even as Specialties Business Improves

By Water Tower Research

  • 3Q25 results underscored resilience amid soft markets. RYAM reported revenue of $353 million and adjusted EBITDA of $42 million, modestly below expectations but reflecting operational improvement.
  • The loss from continuing operations narrowed sharply to $4 million from $33 million in 3Q24.
  • Management reiterated that 2025 represents the trough year as temporary headwinds subside and pricing resets gain traction.

SPA: More Drill Results Above Resource Grades

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • This morning, SPA announced assay results from two more drill holes as part of its 9,000-10,000m fall drill program.
  • • Today’s results (similar to the previously reported two holes on November 3rd) confirm strong grades over wide intervals within the proposed pit (in areas previously modelled as lower-grade and/or waste), including 0.98 g/t Au over 41m and 1.16 g/t over 35m.
  • • The drill results reported today and in the last release are well above resource grades and could have a material impact on future economics.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Atlas Arteria, RPMGlobal Holdings Limited, Singapore Airlines, Asian Terminals, Sanyu Construction, Federal Signal, Sodick Co Ltd, U-Haul Holding , UOB and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM Creeps To A ~35% Stake
  • RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Scheme Vote on 19 December
  • Singapore Airlines (SIA): Saddled with India Growth Story
  • Container Port Terminal Screener November 2025: Strong Structural Future Growth And Great Q3 Results
  • Primer: Sanyu Construction (1841 JP) – Nov 2025
  • Federal Signal Corporation Is Turning Acquisitions Into a Profit Engine — But Can Hog Technologies Keep Exceeding Expectations?
  • Sodick (6143 JP) – Consolidating the Recovery Profile
  • UHAL: U-Haul Reports 2Q FY2026 Financial Results. Revenues were slightly above expectations
  • Tan Kok Huat, CEO of Reclaims Global, Boosts Stake


Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM Creeps To A ~35% Stake

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 8th June 2022, IFM Global Infrastructure Fund announced a 15% stake in Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) (ATLAX), and subsequently floated the possibility of a non-binding proposal. 
  • However, IFM’s request, at the time, for limited company information on ATLAX , a US/Europe toll-road play, came to nought.
  • Undeterred, IFM continues to accumulate shares. Reportedly, IFM now holds ~35% after picking up 1.9% this morning.

RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Scheme Vote on 19 December

By Arun George

  • The RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU) IE considers Caterpillar Inc (CAT US)’s scheme offer at A$5.00 to be fair and reasonable, as it falls within its valuation range (A$4.43-A$5.12).
  • The key scheme conditions are shareholder approval, FIRB approval, and ACCC approval. Regulatory approvals are expected to be forthcoming, and the scheme vote carries a low risk.
  • The offer is attractive. At the last close and for an 18 February 2026 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.5%/10.2%.  

Singapore Airlines (SIA): Saddled with India Growth Story

By Henry Soediarko

  • Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) is growing its footprint in India, presenting an interesting opportunity for long term investors. 
  • However, it may come slightly costly in the near term as Indian aviation infrastructure is not that ready just yet. 
  • Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) does not trade at a significant discount to its peers from PER and PBR. 

Container Port Terminal Screener November 2025: Strong Structural Future Growth And Great Q3 Results

By Sameer Taneja

  • We strongly recommend looking at container port terminal companies with monopoly/ duopoly, or oligopoly dynamics, as pricing power appears strong there. 
  • After their 30% tariff hike, Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK) reported a strong Q3, and ICTSI (ICT PM), following tariff hikes across most of its ports, also reported 25% earnings growth. 
  • We like Asian Terminals (ATI PM) for its cheap valuation/duopoly and ICTSI (ICT PM) for its strategy of acquiring terminals with a monopolistic presence. 

Primer: Sanyu Construction (1841 JP) – Nov 2025

By αSK

  • Sanyu Construction has demonstrated a remarkable turnaround, with stellar three-year growth in net income and EPS, driven by significant margin recovery. This positions it as a compelling value and growth story within its sector.
  • The company’s valuation appears attractive, trading at a low P/E ratio of approximately 7.1x and a significant discount to its book value (0.29x P/B ratio), which may appeal to value-oriented investors.
  • Despite recent strong performance, the company operates in the highly cyclical and competitive Japanese construction market, facing headwinds from labor shortages and rising material costs, which introduces a medium level of uncertainty to its future earnings.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Federal Signal Corporation Is Turning Acquisitions Into a Profit Engine — But Can Hog Technologies Keep Exceeding Expectations?

By Baptista Research

  • Federal Signal Corporation’s third-quarter results for 2025 demonstrated significant financial growth and strategic progress, balanced with certain challenges.
  • The conglomerate reported a 17% year-over-year increase in net sales, reaching $555 million.
  • This rise was driven by organic growth of 11% and contributions from recent acquisitions, namely Hog Technologies and Standard, which added a combined $30 million to the quarterly sales.

Sodick (6143 JP) – Consolidating the Recovery Profile

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Stable performance maintained – With demand stemming from technology (chiefly optical connectors), aerospace, and medical sectors, Sodick’s Q1-3 FY12/25 results demonstrated a sustained recovery YoY.
  • Order visibility for the mainstay EDM units remains high, with Q3 FY12/25 orders rising 18.9% YoY, driven primarily by demand from China.
  • Quarterly GPM of 36.2% in Q3 FY12/25 indicates progress toward improving the sales mix by selling high-value-added products. 

UHAL: U-Haul Reports 2Q FY2026 Financial Results. Revenues were slightly above expectations

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • U-Haul Holding Company is the parent company of U-Haul International, the world’s largest consumer truck and trailer rental company.
  • U-Haul is also the third largest self-storage operator in North America.
  • As management continues to expand capacity in the self-storage segment and U-Box, three major initiatives in the Moving & Storage segments are being implemented addressing depreciation expense, expanding the rental dealer network and increasing revenue-generating capacity through the removal of delinquent self-storage tenants.

Tan Kok Huat, CEO of Reclaims Global, Boosts Stake

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutions recorded a net inflow of S$236 million in Singapore stocks from Nov 7 to Nov 13, reversing prior outflows.
  • United Overseas Bank led share buybacks with 1,071,900 shares at an average price of S$33.95, totaling S$56.5 million.
  • Fuxing China Group raised S$1.245 million through a placement of 3 million shares at S$0.415 each.

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Daily Brief Credit: Minerva 3Q25: Stronger Credit as Integration Completes and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Minerva 3Q25: Stronger Credit as Integration Completes, Margins Under Pressure


Minerva 3Q25: Stronger Credit as Integration Completes, Margins Under Pressure

By Leandro Gubler

  • We maintain our Overweight on Minerva, favoring the 2033s for superior carry-to-duration despite limited upside, supported by strong liquidity, improving leverage, and integration-driven efficiencies
  • We see room for further spread compression over 9–12 months as operating conditions remain favorable, tariff mitigation continues, and synergies from acquired plants strengthen the credit profile
  • Relative value remains constructive, with Minerva notes still wide to key benchmarks and peers even after tightening, while rising cattle prices and weak interest coverage remain the main risks

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Daily Brief Thailand: Rubber Future SGX TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Weak Demand Lingers Amid Tariff Turbulence, Impacting Thai Rubber Exports


Weak Demand Lingers Amid Tariff Turbulence, Impacting Thai Rubber Exports

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Thailand’s rubber exports up by .5% MoM to 204,095 MT in Sept

  • Chinese imports decline while US imports sharply rise

  • Significant disruption to production due to rains

    Thailand, which continued to witness unusually heavy rains during its ongoing production season, saw rubber export volume increasing marginally from August to September, while the returns also increased correspondingly as tight supply prevented prices from falling further.


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