Category

Daily Briefs

Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Feb 14th): HSBC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Feb 14th): HSBC, AIA, Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric
  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 7th): Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Apa, Computershare, Origin Energy
  • China Mobile (941 HK) Skyrockets- Is It Too Late to Jump In?

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Feb 14th): HSBC, AIA, Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Feb 14th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were HSBC (5 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric (3898 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), HSBC (5 HK).

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 7th): Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Apa, Computershare, Origin Energy

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 7th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD23.3bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Apa, Computershare, Origin Energy, Transurban.

China Mobile (941 HK) Skyrockets- Is It Too Late to Jump In?

By Nico Rosti

  • In our previous, recent insight about China Mobile (941 HK) we correctly predicted a pullback was about to happen (it happened right after we published the insight).
  • We said “The stock should end its pull back between 72.85 and 72.25, it can be bought again from these levels. ” Actually the pullback ended much earlier (at 74.90).
  • Then the stock took off furiously, but (tactical consideration, if you were planning to go LONG) it may be too late to enter. Our models say it is WEEKLYoverbought.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

By Joe Jasper

  • Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. 
  • $116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.
  • DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials

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Feb 15
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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): The Great Gold Rush of 2025: Why Physical Demand Is Rising? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • The Great Gold Rush of 2025: Why Physical Demand Is Rising?
  • Japan Strategy Weekly | Carlyle’s Kaonavi Deal Signals a Shift in Japanese Valuations
  • Singapore Market Roundup (14-Feb-2025): Brokers’ top picks: CLAR, CICT, CNMC, KORE, Wilmar, Parkway Life, FLCT, ST Engineering.
  • #103 India Insight: India Adapts to US Sanctions, Unilever Invests in Beauty, BAT to Divest
  • Despite DeepSeek’s Innovation, Hyperscalers Doubling Down on Capex
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 14/07/2025

The Great Gold Rush of 2025: Why Physical Demand Is Rising?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Physical gold buying has surged, with COMEX vaults seeing a 115% increase in two months, pushing holdings above 2020 pandemic levels, highlighting an unprecedented demand for physical gold.
  • This surge matters because it indicates major shift in global gold market, with London vault inventories decreasing and US becoming net gold importer, signaling a significant change in gold’s distribution.
  • The impact is seen in rising gold prices, up 40% in 12 months, outperforming the S&P 500, as gold solidifies its position as global hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

Japan Strategy Weekly | Carlyle’s Kaonavi Deal Signals a Shift in Japanese Valuations

By Mark Chadwick

  • Japan’s tech market sees major movement with Carlyle’s 120% premium bid for Kaonavi, highlighting the stark valuation gap between Japanese and US SaaS companies.
  • Many Japanese software firms trade at significantly lower multiples (4x) versus US peers (8x), attracting private equity attention.
  • Japanese stocks ended the week up around 1%. Global macro concerns and inflation lifting bond yields and raising concern over a stronger yen. 

Singapore Market Roundup (14-Feb-2025): Brokers’ top picks: CLAR, CICT, CNMC, KORE, Wilmar, Parkway Life, FLCT, ST Engineering.

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • Brokers’ top stock picks include CLAR, CICT, CNMC Goldmine, KORE, Wilmar, Parkway Life REIT, FLCT, and ST Engineering.
  • Analysts recommend buying Digital Core REIT due to increased rents and leasing strength, while optimistic about Oiltek’s new orders for FY2025.
  • CGSI optimistic about Seatrium with new MOU for second bp FPU; OCBC boosts fair value. Citi downgrades SGX to ‘sell’. PhillipCapital maintains ‘accumulate’ rating on BRC Asia, raises TP to $3.15. Maybank Securities maintains ‘buy’ rating on SingPost. DBS upgrades Elite UK REIT to ‘buy’.

#103 India Insight: India Adapts to US Sanctions, Unilever Invests in Beauty, BAT to Divest

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • India is adapting to tougher US sanctions on Russian oil by rebuilding supply chains with non-sanctioned merchants, tankers, and insurance providers. 
  • Unilever (UL US)  plans to invest in India’s beauty and wellness sector, expecting improved demand conditions mid-term after fiscal stimulus.
  • British American Tobacco (BATS LN) will divest its 15% stake in ITC Hotels at the “best moment,” aiming to maximize shareholder value, following ITC Hotels demerger from ITC Ltd (ITC IN)  earlier.

Despite DeepSeek’s Innovation, Hyperscalers Doubling Down on Capex

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Despite DeepSeek (DPSK12 CH)’s breakthrough with minimal chips, hyperscalers remain undeterred, planning $315 billion in FY25 capex to expand AI and cloud infrastructure.
  • This sustained high capex underlines tech giants’ confidence in long-term AI growth, ensuring a competitive edge and reinforcing their market leadership.
  • Investors should see this aggressive capex commitment as a signal of robust future revenue potential, even amid disruptive cost-saving innovations.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 14/07/2025

By Auctus Advisors

  • ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: New acreage in Austria increases prospect inventory with a focus on low risk, shallow gas – ADX’s acreage in Austria has been modified to include additional near-term, low-risk gas prospects, as well as high-impact, higher-risk opportunities.
  • One focus of the 2025 program is to drill shallow, low-risk, high initial production gas prospects that can be rapidly put into production.
  • ADX has more than tripled the number of these prospects within its revised acreage positions at ADX-AT-I and ADX-AT-II, holding 100% WI in the new prospects.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief ECM: Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD): Obesity Biotech Busts; IPO Trades Deeply in the Red and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD): Obesity Biotech Busts; IPO Trades Deeply in the Red
  • Karman Holdings Inc.(KRMN): Space and Defense IPO Blasts Off, High Hit Rate in Roadshow
  • Ajax Engineering IPO Trading – Decent Insti Coverage but Subdued Retail Demand
  • SailPoint IPO (SAIL.US): Pricing and First Trading-Day, No IPO Pop In $1B+ Nasdaq Debut

Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD): Obesity Biotech Busts; IPO Trades Deeply in the Red

By IPO Boutique

  • Aardvark Therapeutics priced a full size deal of 5.88mm shares at the low end of the range, $16.00, and opened at $15.18 for a loss of 5.1% at first trade.
  • The volume on day one was just 1.7 million shares or less than 30% of the float. 
  • As the company progresses through its trials and more readouts and data becomes available, this biotech may find a better footing.

Karman Holdings Inc.(KRMN): Space and Defense IPO Blasts Off, High Hit Rate in Roadshow

By IPO Boutique

  • The Trive Capital (private equity) backed company priced 23.0mm shares (upsized from 21.05mm) at $22.00 ($2 Above Range) and opened at $30.00 for a 36.3% gain at first trade. 
  • The deal finished roughly 17-times oversubscribed with the top ten percent of the deal receiving 50% of the offerings and top 25% of the transaction receiving 75% of the allocations.
  • Given the success of the IPO on day one, we will be upwardly-revising our 30-day forecast on this IPO.

Ajax Engineering IPO Trading – Decent Insti Coverage but Subdued Retail Demand

By Akshat Shah

  • Ajax Engineering Limited (0896529D IN) raised around US$145m in its India IPO.
  • Ajax Engineering Limited (AEL) is one of the leading concrete equipment manufacturers with a comprehensive range of concrete equipment, services and solutions across the concrete application value chain.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

SailPoint IPO (SAIL.US): Pricing and First Trading-Day, No IPO Pop In $1B+ Nasdaq Debut

By Andrei Zakharov

  • SailPoint, a Thoma Bravo-backed provider of identity security for the modern enterprise, priced its IPO at $23.00/share and raised $1B+.
  • The offering was 20+ times oversubscribed, according to Bloomberg. However, shares fell as much as ~4% on the first day of trading.
  • I think the stock was fairly valued vs. peers given 20%+ growth rates at scale. Surprisingly, the company boosted its initial price range and priced IPO at top of range.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: 3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • 3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977)
  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: TPX Add in April; Global Idx: One in August; One in March or Sep
  • Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar25: High-Impact Intra-Review Additions Possible
  • Australian Clinical Labs (ACL AU) / Healius (HLS AU): Round 2?
  • NZME Limited (NZM NZ/AU): In Need Of A Good Story
  • Biogen’s Acquisition Bid for Sage Therapeutics: Strategic Review, Shareholder Dynamics, and Zurzuvae’s Blockbuster Potential

3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977)

By Travis Lundy

  • For the second time in 3 weeks, 3D Investment Partners has launched, unannounced, a Partial Tender Offer for pure investment purposes, for a 10-15% stake in a REIT.
  • Last time it was NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956 JP). This time it is Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP). 
  • The trade last time was to sell NTT UD on the pop and replace with peers. That has worked. The trade is probably the same here. 

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: TPX Add in April; Global Idx: One in August; One in March or Sep

By Brian Freitas

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 19 March.
  • At the indicative IPO price of JPY 862/share, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) will be valued at JPY 800bn (US$5.25bn).
  • The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 28 April while timing of inclusion in global indices will depend on domestic/overseas allocations and price moves.

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar25: High-Impact Intra-Review Additions Possible

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
  • We see up to three M&A-related intra-review changes in the next few months.
  • Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F100 index and at least two changes for the F250 index during the March 2025 rebalance.

Australian Clinical Labs (ACL AU) / Healius (HLS AU): Round 2?

By David Blennerhassett

NZME Limited (NZM NZ/AU): In Need Of A Good Story

By David Blennerhassett

  • After NZME Limited (NZM NZ/AU), publisher of the NZ Herald, recently announced sweeping job cuts, the country’s largest private sector union called for the government to step in.
  • The union said the cutbacks not only affected staff, but also readers seeking information on important issues. NZME’s revamped strategy focuses on stories that engage audience. Or clickbait by detractors. 
  • Reports are now emerging of a possible takeover from local entrepreneurs. Those reports appear tenuous, at best.

Biogen’s Acquisition Bid for Sage Therapeutics: Strategic Review, Shareholder Dynamics, and Zurzuvae’s Blockbuster Potential

By Dalius Tauraitis

  • Biogen owns ~10% of Sage Therapeutics and offered $7.22/share to acquire the rest, which Sage rejected.
  • Sage has ~$500m in net cash and a 50/50 partnership with Biogen on Zurzuvae, valued at $10/share.
  • Biogen’s interest in Sage is driven by Zurzuvae’s potential as a blockbuster drug and associated synergies.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Credit: Suzano 4Q24: 2031s & 2032s Offer Value as Fundamentals Strengthen and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Suzano 4Q24: 2031s & 2032s Offer Value as Fundamentals Strengthen

Suzano 4Q24: 2031s & 2032s Offer Value as Fundamentals Strengthen

By Leandro Gubler

  • We upgraded Suzano’s 2031s and 2032s to Outperform, while maintaining the rest of the curve at Market Perform.
  • Suzano posted strong 4Q24 results. Supported by the Pulp segment outperforming despite pricing headwinds. EBITDA reached R$6.5 billion, down a modest 0.6% QoQ but 5.3% above expectations
  • From a credit perspective. Suzano’s results showed improved LTM EBITDA and positive net free cash flow, but net leverage rose slightly to 3.3x due to FX-driven debt increases.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Cloudflare Inc.: Can Its Enhanced Utilization in AI and Agents Help Catalyze Top-Line Growth? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Cloudflare Inc.: Can Its Enhanced Utilization in AI and Agents Help Catalyze Top-Line Growth?
  • Yum! Brands: The Digital Surge Is Real—But Will It Be Enough to Fend Off Competition?
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-Feb-2025): China smartphone market, 4Q ’24
  • Fortinet: Can Its Unified SASE Approach Help Capture A Larger Chunk Of The Market!
  • Hilton Worldwide: The Luxury Expansion That Could Send Shares to New Highs!
  • JTEC Corp (3446 JP) – Reaffirming Long-Term Vision
  • Lupin Ltd (LPC IN): Differentiated Portfolio Drives Solid Q3FY25 Performance; Momentum to Continue
  • GENOVA (9341 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • Harley-Davidson: Can “The Hardwire” Strategy Save This Iconic Brand from Market Share Collapse?
  • Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) – Increasingly Healthy Recovery

Cloudflare Inc.: Can Its Enhanced Utilization in AI and Agents Help Catalyze Top-Line Growth?

By Baptista Research

  • Cloudflare Inc. concluded 2024 with a robust performance, reporting notable financial and operational achievements for the fourth quarter.
  • Revenue reached $459.9 million, marking a 27% increase compared to the previous year.
  • The company reported significant growth in its large customer segment—those contributing over $100,000 annually—with a year-over-year uptick of 27% in this segment, representing 69% of total revenue, up from 66% the previous year.

Yum! Brands: The Digital Surge Is Real—But Will It Be Enough to Fend Off Competition?

By Baptista Research

  • Yum!
  • Brands’ recent earnings presentation offers insights into the company’s performance and strategic trajectory, highlighting both strengths and challenges.
  • The company, encompassing renowned brands like KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut, presented a mixed set of results for the latest financial year, characterized by robust digital growth, strategic expansions, and cost management, contrasted by varied performance across different market segments.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-Feb-2025): China smartphone market, 4Q ’24

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • China smartphone market in 4Q 2024 expected to see growth, intensifying competition among top brands.
  • GlobalWafers remains stable despite uncertainty around US CHIPS Act funding.
  • Yageo surprises with Shibaura Electronics takeover bid, Foxconn proposes partnership with Nissan, Forces Mos wins patent case against Asus.

Fortinet: Can Its Unified SASE Approach Help Capture A Larger Chunk Of The Market!

By Baptista Research

  • Fortinet Inc.’s fiscal results for the fourth quarter and the entire year of 2024 demonstrate both strengths and challenges within the company.
  • Positively, Fortinet achieved a total revenue growth of 17% for the quarter, marking a significant upturn, especially in product revenue, which attained an 18% increase—the best in six quarters.
  • The company’s strategic focus on secure networking, particularly in Unified SASE, resulted in a growth of 13% for this segment, making up 23% of the company’s business.

Hilton Worldwide: The Luxury Expansion That Could Send Shares to New Highs!

By Baptista Research

  • Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. provided a comprehensive overview of its performance in the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, demonstrating robust growth and strategic expansion across its hotel portfolio.
  • The company reported strong financial results, including record unit growth, significant increases in revenue per available room (RevPAR), and notable expansion in strategic partnerships and brand diversity.
  • For 2024, Hilton achieved a system-wide RevPAR increase of 2.7% compared to the previous year, showing growth across all segments and major regions.

JTEC Corp (3446 JP) – Reaffirming Long-Term Vision

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Q1-2 FY6/25 results showed the core Optical business experienced sales growth and generated segmental profits, which was positive.
  • Focusing on developing the Life Science & Equipment segment involving upfront investment resulted in flattish operating losses YoY overall.
  • FY company guidance has been maintained, implying an earnings recovery HoH driven by the Optical segment experiencing order visibility and new customer acquisition. 

Lupin Ltd (LPC IN): Differentiated Portfolio Drives Solid Q3FY25 Performance; Momentum to Continue

By Tina Banerjee

  • Lupin Ltd (LPC IN) has reported solid set of numbers for Q3FY23, with revenue increasing 11% YoY, EBITDA growing 32% YoY, and net profit improving 39% YoY.
  • North America revenue increased 12% YoY and 8% QoQ to record high of INR21B. Strong momentum in complex portfolio and continued cost optimization are driving consistent profitable growth in U.S.
  • Complex generics are expected to contribute 50%+ of revenue in the next couple of years. This calls for accelerated growth and better margin.

GENOVA (9341 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 24.7% YoY to JPY7.6bn, with operating profit rising 10.6% YoY to JPY1.6bn.
  • Medical Platform business achieved 18.9% YoY revenue growth, with average contract unit price at JPY1.4mn (-0.2% YoY).
  • Smart Clinic business saw 45.1% YoY revenue growth, with hardware and software services contributing 64.0% and 36.0% respectively.

Harley-Davidson: Can “The Hardwire” Strategy Save This Iconic Brand from Market Share Collapse?

By Baptista Research

  • Harley-Davidson’s recent performance reflects a mixed bag of operational and strategic shifts amid challenging macroeconomic conditions.
  • The company’s 2024 fourth-quarter results exhibited a significant decline, with consolidated revenue decreasing by 35% compared to the previous year.
  • This decline was primarily driven by the Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) segment, which saw revenue drop by 47% as a result of a 53% decrease in wholesale shipments.

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) – Increasingly Healthy Recovery

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) booked an impressive set of FY2024 results, booking healthy growth driven by pharmaceuticals, distribution & Logistics, and consumer health, with slower growth from its nutritionals segment. 
  • The company continues to pursue growth in oncology and biologic drugs in its pharmaceutical segment, whilst pursuing strategic collaborations and pursuing National Health exposure. 
  • Kalbe Farma is pursuing wellness products in consumer health and repositioning toward more affordable products in the nutritional space. Valuations are attractive on 17x FY2025E PER. 

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Macro: Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (14 Februray 2025) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (14 Februray 2025)
  • Actinver Research – Walmex 4Q24: In line with our estimates (Quick View)
  • HEW: Hawkish Canaries and Sick Doves

Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (14 Februray 2025)

By Alex Ng

  • Hong Kong Hang Seng was up over 6% in the past five days as key component stocks rallied due to the Deepseek effect.
  • Compared to Chinese stocks, US market was more dormant though S&P was up 1.13%.
  • Gold was up 2.09% over worries of heightened US inflation and the prospect of rate cuts.

Actinver Research – Walmex 4Q24: In line with our estimates (Quick View)

By Actinver

  • Revenues of P$274.7bn were 8.3% higher YoY, in line with our estimates and consensus, with SSS in Mexico of 4.3% (vs our 4.0% estimates), driven by ticket growth of 4.5%, as traffic declined for another quarter (0.2%).
  • In CAM, SSS of 3.1% were again below our estimates and a further deceleration from the 3Q24 figure, with positive ticket and traffic performance of 0.8% and 2.3%, respectively.
  • Margins were in line with our estimates starting at the gross margin level.

HEW: Hawkish Canaries and Sick Doves

By Phil Rush

  • Resurgent US inflation and UK GDP growth sicken dovish arguments, even if the turn is exaggerated by residual seasonality in H1. We now see the Fed’s next move as a hike. Uruguay joined Brazil as another hawkish canary by hiking, while BSP didn’t cut.
  • It’s the RBA and RBNZ’s turn next week, where cuts are expected, but they are lagging behind the global policy cycle, not leading it. UK inflation, unemployment and wage data will be the highlights for us, along with FOMC minutes and flash PMIs.
  • Note: Smartkarma is now the sole distributor of our research, so clients will only receive all other research from Smartkarma (queries to [email protected]).

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Feb 15
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Daily Brief Crypto: Zenrock: Paving the Path in DMPC and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Zenrock: Paving the Path in DMPC

Zenrock: Paving the Path in DMPC

By Delphi Digital

  • Zenrock addresses critical blockchain interoperability challenges through its distributed Multi-Party Computation (dMPC) technology.
  • While existing cross-chain solutions handle significant volumes, they remain vulnerable to security breaches, as evidenced by recent attacks resulting in losses over $965 million.
  • Built on zrChain and zrSign, Zenrock’s dMPC network offers a decentralized, trust-minimized solution for cross-chain communication.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Australia: Healius and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Australian Clinical Labs (ACL AU) / Healius (HLS AU): Round 2?

Australian Clinical Labs (ACL AU) / Healius (HLS AU): Round 2?

By David Blennerhassett

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