Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: CPMC Holdings, Crude Oil, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, OCI NV, Reliance Industries, Ocean Power Technologies, Sintana Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Festive Cheer as Precondition Satisfied🎄
  • OPEC Cuts Demand Forecasts for Fifth Straight Month; EIA Lowers Price Outlook on Supply Glut
  • [ETP 2024/50] WTI Rebounds on Outlook of Better Demand in 2025; Henry Hub Rises but Remains Volatile
  • ELTs Undertake An Impressive ‘Sustainable March’ In The US
  • Oci Nv (US67116NAA72 Corp) – Friday, Sep 13, 2024
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Ocean Power Technologies, Inc: Lands $3 Million Multi-Year Contract in Latin America
  • Sintana Energy Inc. (TSX-V: SEI): More Drilling in Namibia


CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Festive Cheer as Precondition Satisfied🎄

By Arun George

  • ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)’s offer for CPMC Holdings (906 HK) has received SAFE approval. Therefore, the precondition is satisfied. 
  • The offer and response document will be despatched by 20 December and 3 January 2025, respectively. The Board will recommend the offer. 
  • The offer should be declared unconditional by the first closing date. At the last close and late-January 2025 payment, the gross/annualized spread was 7.3%/88.0%.

OPEC Cuts Demand Forecasts for Fifth Straight Month; EIA Lowers Price Outlook on Supply Glut

By Suhas Reddy

  • OPEC cut its 2024 demand growth forecast for the fifth consecutive time this year. It lowered its 2024 and 2025 forecast 11.5% and 5.8%, respectively.
  • The EIA and IEA lowered their 2024 demand projections by 10.1% and 8.7%, respectively. However, they raised their 2025 projections by 5.7% and 11.1%, respectively.
  • The EIA reduced 2024 and 2025 price forecasts for WTI and Brent, citing higher non-OPEC+ production and subdued demand, which are expected to drive global inventory builds after Q1 2025.

[ETP 2024/50] WTI Rebounds on Outlook of Better Demand in 2025; Henry Hub Rises but Remains Volatile

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 06/Dec, US crude inventories fell by 1.4m barrels, beating expectations of a 1m barrel decrease. However, gasoline and distillate stocks rose more than expected again.
  • US natural gas inventories fell by 190 Bcf for the week ending 06/Dec, beating analyst expectations of a 175 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.
  • Wells Fargo raised its 12-month PT for Chevron but lowered targets for Shell and Occidental. Exxon targets a CAGR of 10% in earnings and 8% in cash flow through 2030.

ELTs Undertake An Impressive ‘Sustainable March’ In The US

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • 79% of ELTs consumed by end-use markets, up 10.5%
  • Tire-derived fuel tops ELT use, followed by ground rubber
  • Sumitomo Rubber USA announces closing of Buffalo plant

Oci Nv (US67116NAA72 Corp) – Friday, Sep 13, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • OCI undergoing solvent liquidation process, sparking interest in updating story and economics
  • Focus on latest updates on OCI and PF capital structure, equity thesis, credit thesis
  • Multiple disposal transactions in past 10 months, including sale of businesses and retaining European nitrogen business

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In the US, initial jobless claims increased to a two-month-high of 242 k (220 k e / 225 k p), likely due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
  • The PPI (final demand) came in at 3.0% y-o-y in November (2.6% e / 2.6% p), while core PPI (final demand) stood at 3.4% (3.2% e / 3.4% p).
  • US Treasuries were sold off for the second consecutive day, with the yields gaining 4-6 bps across the curve.

Ocean Power Technologies, Inc: Lands $3 Million Multi-Year Contract in Latin America

By Water Tower Research

  • Ocean Power Technologies has secured a new partnership in Latin America with $3 million in purchase order commitments over three years.
  • This new agreement adds to a previous $1.5 million order, bringing the total to $4.5 million.
  • The partnership will involve the deployment of OPT’s WAM-V unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) for hydrographic applications and other diverse tasks.

Sintana Energy Inc. (TSX-V: SEI): More Drilling in Namibia

By Auctus Advisors

  • The Mopane-2A appraisal well (the 4th well to be drilled at Mopane) has been spud.
  • The purpose of the well is to appraise the AVO-3 that had been discovered at Mopane-2X located ~8km to the northeast.
  • This appraisal well has been prioritized following the Mopane-1A success.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Fuji Soft Inc, ServiceTitan, NVIDIA Corp, Samsung Electronics, Mediatek Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Fuji Soft (9749 JP) – Bain Bumps UnBigly, and FSI Responds
  • ServiceTitan IPO: Pricing and First Trading-Day, The Stock Jumped ~42% As A Public Company
  • Nvidia Asserts Commitment to Fair Competition Amid China Antitrust Probe
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-Dec-2024): Samsung: VP leads key unit, strategic realignment.
  • MediaTek (2454.TT): D9400 Success Will Extend into 2025. Prepare to Re-Qualify IPad and IWatch.


Fuji Soft (9749 JP) – Bain Bumps UnBigly, and FSI Responds

By Travis Lundy

  • ~4 weeks ago, Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) responded to Bain’s Proposal to take over the company but got KKR to bid ¥1 more, then said that covered it.
  • The Special Committee then asked the FSI Board to halt further negotiations with Bain, and to ask Bain to destroy all confidential documentation. 
  • Bain rejected saying it contravened METI Guidelines on Corporate Takeovers and reappeared 2 days ago with a ¥9,600 bid. The structure/details of Bain’s bid was probably a strategy mistake.

ServiceTitan IPO: Pricing and First Trading-Day, The Stock Jumped ~42% As A Public Company

By Andrei Zakharov

  • ServiceTitan, a provider of field service management software for home service businesses, priced its IPO at $71.00/share and raised ~$625M.  
  • ServiceTitan IPO has seen robust demand among institutional investors. The company boosted its initial price range to $65.00 to $67.00 per share.
  • The offering was priced above the price range, valuing ServiceTitan at ~$6.5B. The stock jumped ~42% on first day as a public company and closed at $101.00 on Thursday.

Nvidia Asserts Commitment to Fair Competition Amid China Antitrust Probe

By Caixin Global

  • Nvidia Corp. on Tuesday asserted its commitment to fair competition, after China’s market regulators opened an antitrust investigation into the U.S. chip giant over suspected violations linked to a 2020 deal.
  • The probe, announced on Monday by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), concerns Nvidia’s compliance with the country’s Anti-Monopoly Law and conditions tied to its $6.9 billion acquisition of Israeli network-equipment maker Mellanox Technologies Ltd.
  • The deal — the largest acquisition Nvidia has ever made — faced intense scrutiny from Chinese regulators, who conditionally approved it after nearly a year-long process.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-Dec-2024): Samsung: VP leads key unit, strategic realignment.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Samsung Display appoints new VP to lead strategic product realignment, driving focus on key areas.
  • BYD expands EV production in Europe, while Gotion aims for battery growth in Morocco and Slovakia.
  • Google unveils Gemini 2.0 and next-gen TPU Trillium, ushering in the era of AI agents; Morris Chang shares insights on Intel’s leadership crisis. Samsung shifts 2,000 engineers to Pyeongtaek to tackle HBM hurdles.

MediaTek (2454.TT): D9400 Success Will Extend into 2025. Prepare to Re-Qualify IPad and IWatch.

By Patrick Liao

  • Although the outlook for 1Q25 might be somewhat negative, we believe that it is a reasonably typical result.
  • We understand that MediaTek did not succeed in qualifying its Apple iPad and iWatch CPUs originally, but we believe it is now preparing for a re-qualification process.
  • Looking ahead to 2025, we anticipate a more favorable outlook for MediaTek.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Exedy Corp, Vesync, Global Digital Niaga Tbk PT, JD.com Inc (ADR), SGX Rubber Future TSR20, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Culp Inc, National World, Herbalife Ltd and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan Activism] Exedy (7278 JP) – Buying Back Bigly
  • Vesync (2148 HK): Expect The Yangs To Privatise
  • Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ) – Speeding the Horses to Profitability
  • Jd.Com Inc (JD) – Friday, Sep 13, 2024
  • ELTs Undertake An Impressive ‘Sustainable March’ In The US
  • Guarantee Program for GHG Disclosure Will Start in FY3/2028 with Limited Guarantee for Scope 1 and 2
  • Culp, Inc. – Revising Revenue/EPS Estimates
  • Media Concierge’s Acquisition of National World: 9.5% Upside Amidst Complex Business Dynamics
  • Herbalife Ltd. – Uniquely Well Positioned Among Direct Sellers


[Japan Activism] Exedy (7278 JP) – Buying Back Bigly

By Travis Lundy

  • Exedy Corp (7278 JP) announced an offering of 36% of its shares at end-May. Long-time “owner” Aisin (7259 JP) was getting out. Since then, the company has bought back shares.
  • Activist Murakami Group has bought 27% of the company. Between Murakami and the buyback, the public has net sold 5% of the company since end-March. Kinda shocking.
  • There is another 35% of Max Real World Float to buy back, and at current pace, they’ll be done by mid-March 2025. Then what? That’s the really big question.

Vesync (2148 HK): Expect The Yangs To Privatise

By David Blennerhassett

  • Vesync (2148 HK), a manufacturer of small home appliance, is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. 
  • FY23 was Vesync’s best result since its December 2020 listing; and FY24E is on track to go one better.  Yet the share price is 24% adrift of the IPO price.
  • The Yang family, led by chairman/CEO, control ~69.26% of Vesync. An Offer price around the IPO price may be enough to take Vesync private.

Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ) – Speeding the Horses to Profitability

By Angus Mackintosh

  • A recent meeting with Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ) looking at its longer-term strategy confirmed its differentiated standing, with a keen focus on an omnichannel strategy across key verticals.
  • The restructuring of its 1P business is yielding positive returns and higher margins, whilst its 3P business is being driven by strong performance from tiket.com, with offline stores performing well.
  • BELI recently opened a new 100,000 sqm distribution centre, which will further underpin its logistics excellence and improve delivery times even further. Valuations are attractive with profitability ahead in FY2025.

Jd.Com Inc (JD) – Friday, Sep 13, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • JD.com is a profitable Chinese e-commerce company trading below its cash value
  • Despite challenges in China’s retail market and competition from rivals, JD.com offers a potential 2x-3x upside over the next two years
  • Stock has fallen approximately 20% since last write-up, presenting a good opportunity for investors

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


ELTs Undertake An Impressive ‘Sustainable March’ In The US

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • 79% of ELTs consumed by end-use markets, up 10.5%
  • Tire-derived fuel tops ELT use, followed by ground rubber
  • Sumitomo Rubber USA announces closing of Buffalo plant

Guarantee Program for GHG Disclosure Will Start in FY3/2028 with Limited Guarantee for Scope 1 and 2

By Aki Matsumoto

  • From FY3/2027, companies with market capitalization of over 3 trillion yen will be required to disclose GHG sequentially. 76% of companies with market capitalization of over 500 billion yen disclose.
  • A guarantee program is scheduled to be introduced in FY3/2028, but only 21% of companies with market capitalization of over 500 billion yen have disclosed their guarantees.
  • The guarantee program will begin in Scope 1 and 2 with limited guarantees. Disclosure of guarantees will increase once the discussion on qualification system for guarantee service providers is finalized.

Culp, Inc. – Revising Revenue/EPS Estimates

By Water Tower Research

  • Culp posted another tough quarter (1), as industry conditions remain challenged.
  • The firm posted an adjusted EPS loss of $0.28, $0.10 below our estimate and $0.09 below the prior year on weaker-than-expected earnings.
  • As we said in our update after the release, this shortfall may have been unexpected, but it’s certainly not surprising to anyone who has been following the space. 

Media Concierge’s Acquisition of National World: 9.5% Upside Amidst Complex Business Dynamics

By Dalius Tauraitis

  • Media Concierge’s £0.23/share offer for National World represents a 9.5% upside, with shareholder approval likely guaranteed.
  • Antitrust risk is negligible due to Media Concierge’s focus on Irish newspapers and NWOR’s exclusive UK operations.
  • NWOR’s valuation is challenging due to lack of local peers and varying global newspaper company valuation ranges.

Herbalife Ltd. – Uniquely Well Positioned Among Direct Sellers

By Water Tower Research

  • The GIG economy has been viewed as a disruptor to the direct selling channel with respect to the business opportunity.
  • However, GIG concepts are top-down, have a specific formula, and assign tasks to their independent contractors for a fee, while direct sellers are micro-entrepreneurs who find a way to build their own businesses.
  • Herbalife has been successful in taking some of the best business models developed by distributors at a local level, and then globalizing them, such as. the Nutrition Clubs that arose in Mexico in the early 2000s.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Celltrion Inc, 3 D Matrix Ltd, CellSource , Cybin and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Celltrion: Meaningful Increase in Cash and Stock Dividends
  • 3 D Matrix Ltd (7777 JP): 1H FY04/25 flash update
  • CellSource (4880 JP): Full-year FY10/24 flash update
  • Cybin, Inc. – First Dosing of Meticulously Planned CYB003 Phase 3 Program Imminent


Celltrion: Meaningful Increase in Cash and Stock Dividends

By Douglas Kim

  • Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) announced meaningful increase in dividends (including both cash and stock dividends).
  • Celltrion will pay out stock dividend of 0.05 for shareholders as of record in 2024, this will be 150% higher than the average stock dividend in the past three years.
  • Celltrion will also pay out cash DPS of 750 won for shareholders as of record in 2024, which is more than double the average DPS in the past three years. 

3 D Matrix Ltd (7777 JP): 1H FY04/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Operating revenue increased by 78.3% YoY to JPY3.3bn, driven by sales of TDM-621 across multiple regions.
  • Operating loss narrowed to JPY532mn, with a recurring loss of JPY798mn and a net loss of JPY806mn.
  • US sales grew 151.4% YoY, achieving profitability; Europe and Japan also reported significant YoY sales growth.

CellSource (4880 JP): Full-year FY10/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue for FY10/24 was JPY4.4bn, a 3.4% YoY decrease, with operating profit down 89.4% YoY to JPY129mn.
  • FY10/25 forecasts include revenue of JPY4.5bn (+3.4% YoY) and operating profit of JPY370mn (+186.5% YoY).
  • Contract processing services revenue declined 12.8% YoY in FY10/24, with orders decreasing by 13.9% YoY.

Cybin, Inc. – First Dosing of Meticulously Planned CYB003 Phase 3 Program Imminent

By Water Tower Research

  • Addressing skeptics of CYB003’s durability data. As impressive as CYB003’s Phase 2 12-month data are, not everyone fully embraces them because of the small population size (n=7) from which they were generated.
  • While this may logically be a fair question, Inamdar addressed this question by stating that not all data are created equal, with some data more impactful than others.
  • Even with small numbers, you can have highly impactful data, and CYB003’s data were highly impactful clinically with a 100% response rate, a 70%-plus remission rate, and a mean 23-point MADRS change from baseline versus the two to three-point change that is typically considered by experts to be clinically significant outcomes for depression.

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Daily Brief Financials: Dexus Property, Corp Financiera Alba Sa, Hachijuni Bank, Nuvama Wealth Management, Direct Line Insurance Group Pl, Kaspi.KZ , Bitcoin, CRE Inc/Japan and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Blackstone Eyes Move On Dexus (DXS AU)
  • Delisting Offer for Alba at 79% Premium
  • Japanese Midcap Banks – Hachijuni (8359 JP) Is Our Top Pick
  • 2025 High Conviction: Nuvama – A Play on Burgeoning Wealth Management Industry in India
  • Aviva’s Acquisition of Direct Line: 9.5% Merger Arbitrage Opportunity Amid Regulatory Considerations and Shareholder Dynamics
  • Kaspi.Kz (KSPI) – Friday, Sep 13, 2024
  • Crypto Moves #56 – Suddenly We Are Once Again Discussing Inflation
  • CRE Inc/Japan (3458 JP): Q1 FY07/25 Flash update


Blackstone Eyes Move On Dexus (DXS AU)

By David Blennerhassett

  • Reportedly, Blackstone is running a ruler over Dexus Property (DXS AU), one of Australia’s leading fully integrated real estate groups. 
  • The Australian article flips flops: “Blackstone is understood to have been back on the scene“; but “cooled on the opportunity for now“. 
  • Almost exactly four year ago, Blackstone paid A$2.1bn for a 49% stake in the Dexus Australian Logistics Trust, a prime logistics portfolio managed and jointly owned by Dexus.

Delisting Offer for Alba at 79% Premium

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Christmas came early for Corp Financiera Alba Sa (ALB SM)‘s shareholders as a 79% premium delisting offer for a holding that was last trading at a whoping 50.7% discount/NAV.
  • For a while I had been saying that Alba was very cheap. Although it is difficult to disagree with such a premium, controling shareholders are buying at a 11.5% discount.
  • They are value investors after all. Settlement should happen around April 4. Spread is 1.9%/6.4% (gross/annualised). Long Alba shares (not the holding spread).

Japanese Midcap Banks – Hachijuni (8359 JP) Is Our Top Pick

By Victor Galliano

  • We update our views on ten Japanese midcap banks targeting attractively valued beneficiaries of the realization of big strategic shareholdings, as well as beneficiaries of the improving interest rate outlook
  • We re-iterate our buys on Hachijuni Bank and Hokuhoku Financial; there is potential to realize their large strategic holdings relative to their market capitalizations combined with their attractive PTBV ratios
  • We take Gunma Bank off the buy list, replacing it with Iyogin; Iyogin has a constructive mix of large strategic holdings, attractive valuations and healthy gearing to higher interest rates

2025 High Conviction: Nuvama – A Play on Burgeoning Wealth Management Industry in India

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Going into CY25, Nuvama is one of our highest conviction ideas. It has potential to generate 75%+ upside, just from valuation gain.
  • India’s wealth management industry is in nascent phase led by under-penetration and a growing affluent, HNI and UHNI clientele.
  • Nuvama’s edge is its integrated platform bolstered by technology prowess and a solution-focused approach as opposed to a product-push model. It offers a holistic solution with a robust relationship-driven approach.

Aviva’s Acquisition of Direct Line: 9.5% Merger Arbitrage Opportunity Amid Regulatory Considerations and Shareholder Dynamics

By Dalius Tauraitis

  • Aviva is acquiring Direct Line for £1.297 cash, 0.2867 AV shares, and £0.05 dividend, totaling £2.70/share.
  • Direct Line’s board is prepared to recommend the offer; Aviva is conducting due diligence with a PUSU date set for December 25.
  • The offer values Direct Line at 1.6x BV and 2.6x TBV, with potential regulatory scrutiny due to market share.

Kaspi.Kz (KSPI) – Friday, Sep 13, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Kaspi superapp offers strong growth potential in Kazakhstan and plans for expansion into other countries
  • Led by a top-notch management team with significant ownership stake and operates with high margins
  • Despite concerns about investing in emerging markets, the authors see Kaspi as a compelling long-term investment opportunity with impressive growth potential

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Crypto Moves #56 – Suddenly We Are Once Again Discussing Inflation

By Mads Eberhardt

  • It should come as no surprise that inflation dominated headlines throughout 2022 and 2023.
  • This was largely because central banks around the world, including the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB), had to respond to rising inflation by aggressively increasing interest rates.
  • The chart below highlights these interest rate changes.

CRE Inc/Japan (3458 JP): Q1 FY07/25 Flash update

By Shared Research

  • In Q1 FY07/25, the company reported sales of JPY11.5bn and business profit of JPY1.2bn, showing YoY growth.
  • Logistics Investment business saw increased leasing income, with sales of JPY5.9bn and segment profit of JPY820mn, up 70.5% YoY.
  • The company sold LogiSquare Narita, resulting in sales of JPY4.5bn and segment profit of JPY583mn, reversing previous losses.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Renewi, IMCD Group NV, Innodata and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Macquarie’s £8.7/share Bid for Renewi Supported by Key Shareholders Amid 9% Spread and Due Diligence Completion
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 13 December [IMCD | NX Filtration]
  • INOD: Growth Pathway in 2025


Macquarie’s £8.7/share Bid for Renewi Supported by Key Shareholders Amid 9% Spread and Due Diligence Completion

By Dalius Tauraitis

  • Macquarie Asset Management’s final bid for Renewi is £8.7/share, with a current spread of 9% and a downside risk of 25%.
  • Three shareholders holding 15.1% of Renewi have signed irrevocable support agreements; confirmatory due diligence is ongoing.
  • Macquarie’s offer values Renewi at 6.7x TTM adj. EBITDA, aligning with European peers’ valuations, considering the control premium.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 13 December [IMCD | NX Filtration]

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • IMCD | acquires Daoqin in China • NX Filtration | revises FY24 revenue outlook strongly downwards

INOD: Growth Pathway in 2025

By Hamed Khorsand

  • The risk to INOD experiencing a sequential decline in spending activity in the near-term could have been alleviated from the continued spending in artificial intelligence (“A.I.”).   
  • AMZN and GOOGL have their internally developed processors ready for high performance deep learning. The new chips suggest A.I. training is not going anywhere and could expand in 2025.   
  • INOD’s revenue growth has been predominantly from one customer. This should begin to change in 2025. 

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Oji Paper (3861 JP) – Big New Buyback After Crossholding Sales And An Activist Peeking From Register and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Oji Paper (3861 JP) – Big New Buyback After Crossholding Sales And An Activist Peeking From Register
  • NEC Networks (1973 JP) Final Showdown II – Synergies Not Included, So Fair Value Not Offered
  • Vesync (2148 HK): The Yang Family to Launch a Privatisation Offer?
  • VCredit (2003 HK): Ma Makes His Move?
  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Contemplating a Privatisation Bid
  • Lufax (6623 HK): On Ping An’s Stake Increases
  • FSS Puts a Break on Hyundai Motor Securities Rights Offering
  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain’s Indicative Proposal a Tad Light
  • EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – From Nifty 50 to Bitcoin, Plus BTC-Bond Special
  • Grifols: Activism and Debt Refinancing


Oji Paper (3861 JP) – Big New Buyback After Crossholding Sales And An Activist Peeking From Register

By Travis Lundy

  • Paper manufacturer Oji Holdings (3861 JP) has spent 25 years not going anywhere. Their current MTMP isn’t exciting. And it looks like they will fail worse than last time.
  • But an activist put their head above the parapet recently, and now the company has announced larger new cross-holding selldown targets, and a big 9% buyback, with a ToSTNeT-3 tomorrow. 
  • The stock is at 0.47x book. They have nearly ¥400bn of financial assets which are non-core. They have land and property holdings. And they have lots of cross-holdings to repurchase.

NEC Networks (1973 JP) Final Showdown II – Synergies Not Included, So Fair Value Not Offered

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, NEC Corp (6701 JP) extended its Tender Offer to buy controlled subsidiary Nec Networks & System Integr (1973 JP) for another 10 days. It did not have enough shares.
  • As discussed here 4wks ago, then here yesterday, NEC might not get enough shares unless it offers a higher price. There’s a reason. It is not a high enough price. 
  • METI Fair M&A Guidelines and Guidelines for Corporate Takeovers define fair. Guarantees of a floor price and a fair allocation of synergies. One is questionable. The other is not there.

Vesync (2148 HK): The Yang Family to Launch a Privatisation Offer?

By Arun George

  • Vesync (2148 HK) is in a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers which contains inside information of the Company.” 
  • The Yang family is likely seeking to privatise Vesync through a Cayman scheme. The shares are trading 24% below the HK$5.52 IPO price.
  • We use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a price range of HK$5.09-10.30 per share, with an average of HK$6.71, a 59.8% premium to last close.

VCredit (2003 HK): Ma Makes His Move?

By David Blennerhassett

  • VCredit Holdings Ltd (2003 HK), a provider of consumer financial services in China, was listed on the 21st June 2018 at HK$20/share. Shares are currently down 90%.
  • Ma Ting Hung, VCredit’s chairman, held 35.6% at the time of listing, and currently holds 39.85%.  
  • VCredit was suspended this morning pursuant to the Takeovers Code. Now might be the time for Ma to take VCredit back into the fold. 

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Contemplating a Privatisation Bid

By Arun George

  • IOOF Holdings (IFL AU) shares rose 11% in the final minutes of trade, fueled by media reports suggesting that Bain was in the advanced stages of making a buyout offer.
  • The presence of several substantial shareholders necessitates an attractive takeover premium. Takeover interest is unsurprising as Insignia trades at a material discount to peers.
  • We use several methods to triangulate the likely offer, which suggests a price range of A$3.44-5.50 per share, with an average of A$4.67, a 37.4% premium to the last close.

Lufax (6623 HK): On Ping An’s Stake Increases

By David Blennerhassett

  • As discussed in PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK) – The Arb Is To Take The Stock, Ping An increased its stake in Lufax (6623 HK) to 56.82% via a scrip dividend.
  • This triggered a zero-premium MGO, which closed on the 28 October 2024 with negligible tendering.
  • Via an amendment to a tri-party agreement, Ping An subsequently lifted its stake to 66.85%. It’s worth understanding how Ping An has taken its stake >50% and beyond. 

FSS Puts a Break on Hyundai Motor Securities Rights Offering

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 12 December, the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) put a break on Hyundai Motor Securities’ rights offering worth 200 billion won.
  • The proposed rights offering included issuing 30.1 million new shares, representing 95% of its current outstanding shares (31.7 million).
  • We would try to capitalize on the short term bullish upside on its shares of Hyundai Motor Securities and sell into strength.  

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain’s Indicative Proposal a Tad Light

By Brian Freitas

  • IOOF Holdings (IFL AU) has received an indicative proposal from Bain Capital to acquire all of its shares at A$4/share in cash.
  • The offer takes advantage of IOOF Holdings (IFL AU)‘s underperformance over the last couple of years and there could be competing offers from other investment managers. 
  • Short interest in IOOF Holdings (IFL AU) is around 2% of shares out and 2.5% of float. There could be short covering in the next few days.

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – From Nifty 50 to Bitcoin, Plus BTC-Bond Special

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Cross-Market volatility snapshot highlighting option opportunities. Today’s opportunities are in the Nifty 50 and in Bitcoin
  • Nifty 50: The index crossed the 50-day moving average, signaling a bullish trend. Hedging gains is recommended due to expected macroeconomic uncertainty in Q1 2025.
  • Bitcoin: Surpassed $100,000, driven by positive sentiment towards the incoming US President’s crypto-friendly stance. Options strategies are suggested, plus how a synthetic Bitcoin bond compares to a corporate bond.

Grifols: Activism and Debt Refinancing

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Debt Refinancing Achieved: Grifols issued €1.3 billion in bonds and extended its revolving credit facility, significantly improving liquidity to €1.7 billion proforma for Q3 2024 while addressing 2025 maturities.
  • Activist Shareholder Pressure: Hedge funds, including Flat Footed, continue to push for governance reforms, citing conflicts of interest and value destruction involving the Grifols family and board member Tomás Dagá.
  • Valuation Opportunity: Grifols trades at a high discount to peers, with upside potential based on its strong market position in plasma therapies, EBITDA recovery, and margin expansion post-COVID.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 6th): Apa and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 6th): Apa, Champion Iron, Pro Medicus, BHP, National Australia Bank


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 6th): Apa, Champion Iron, Pro Medicus, BHP, National Australia Bank

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 6th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.9bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Apa, Champion Iron, Pro Medicus, BHP, National Australia Bank, Goodman.

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: ReNew Energy
  • In the US, inflation data was benign and supported expectations for a Fed interest rate cut this month. The CPI inflation came in at 2.7% y-o-y in November (2.7% e / 2.6% p), while the core CPI inflation stood at 3.3% (3.3% e / 3.3% p).
  • US Treasury sold off across the curve, with the yields gaining 4-6 bps. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 0.8% and 1.8%, respectively.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Inflation Jitters Drag Down Tech Stocks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Inflation Jitters Drag Down Tech Stocks
  • What Trump’s presidency means for banking
  • Singapore Market Roundup (12-Dec-2024): Morningstar Boosts SGX’s Value
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:LI US/TSLA US/XPEV US/NIO US/1211 HK/300750 CH/BEKE US/1810 HK/LKNCY US
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly Black Friday; Furniture Demand Still Weak
  • Biopharma Week in Review – December 9, 2024


Ohayo Japan | Inflation Jitters Drag Down Tech Stocks

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks declined, dragged down by a hotter-than-expected producer price index report that increased wholesale prices by 0.4%
  • Marubeni plans to accelerate asset sales, targeting at least ¥160 billion annually from FY2026, a 30% increase from the previous three-year average
  • Oji Holdings will undertake a share buyback program, purchasing up to 100 million shares (10.1% of total issued shares) for as much as ¥50 billion

What Trump’s presidency means for banking

By Behind the Money

  • Uncertainty around Trump administration’s policies, including deregulation and potential impacts on banking and the economy, may create challenges and opportunities for the banking sector in the next four years
  • The US banking sector is expected to remain strong and dominant, with potential growth for top banks like JP Morgan and Wells Fargo.
  • The future of banking may see a divide between larger, stronger banks and fewer smaller institutions, with potential changes in the private credit sector.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Singapore Market Roundup (12-Dec-2024): Morningstar Boosts SGX’s Value

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • Morningstar’s positive assessment of SGX boosts the company’s value, attracting optimism from major financial institutions like Citi, Morgan Stanley, and RHB.
  • Maybank’s decision to maintain a ‘buy’ rating on Sembcorp and raise its target price follows the company’s deal to import renewable energy from Malaysia, indicating confidence in its future prospects.
  • DBS sells off 54,600 CLINT units for $61,152, suggesting the bank may be reallocating its investment portfolio or adjusting its positions in certain assets.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LI US/TSLA US/XPEV US/NIO US/1211 HK/300750 CH/BEKE US/1810 HK/LKNCY US

By Eric Wen

  • LI US/TSLA US/XPEV US/NIO US/1211 HK:In the 49th week of 2024, LI and Tesla hedged against the slowdown in industry sales by increasing subsidies (/////////)
  • 300750 CH: CATL announces a battery Factory plan in Spain, marking its third overseas plant (+)
  • BEKE US: Second week of December sees abnormal surge in existing home sales, while new home sales maintain steady growth (+)

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly Black Friday; Furniture Demand Still Weak

By Water Tower Research

  • The market was of two minds the past week, with big caps outperforming small caps and furniture and furnishings retailers outperforming manufacturers.
  • The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index was down 2.6% and the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index was down 0.2%, while the Home Goods Retailers Index was up 2.9% and the Mass Retailers Index was up 5.4%.
  • The S&P 500 and DJ30 were both up 0.7%, while the R2K fell 1.2%.

Biopharma Week in Review – December 9, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&A.
  • Last week, BIOA discontinued its lead obesity study, while JANX had impressive prostate cancer data, which also lifted VIR.
  • MRUS gained from earlier HNSCC abstract data but may give it back after its weekend presentation. 

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