Category

Daily Briefs

Sep 23
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): HK Strategy: Rate Cut Beneficiaries – Fixed & Floating Rate Debt Analysis and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Strategy: Rate Cut Beneficiaries – Fixed & Floating Rate Debt Analysis

HK Strategy: Rate Cut Beneficiaries – Fixed & Floating Rate Debt Analysis

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • With the US interest rate heading lower, the HSI constituent companies with the highest gearing levels are the prime beneficiaries as their interest burden will lessen.
  • Sands China (1928 HK), while it has the highest leverage, is not a near-term gain. This is because its debt structure with 100% fixed rate borrowings. 
  • Based on the gearing level, floating rate proportion, and YTD performance, New World Development (17 HK) and Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) are the two potential best bets.

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Sep 23
0

Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (23rd Sep 2024) – Tokyo Metro and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (23rd Sep 2024) – Tokyo Metro, Midea, Intermestic, Sagility, Belstar, Kuaishou, Bajaj HF
  • Pre-IPO Zhejiang Taimei Medical Technology (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • IREDA QIP Early Look – Strong Momentum, Although Valuations Are Eye-Popping

ECM Weekly (23rd Sep 2024) – Tokyo Metro, Midea, Intermestic, Sagility, Belstar, Kuaishou, Bajaj HF

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) and Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) hogged much of the limelight this week as well.
  • On the placements front, there were a few large US$400m+ placements across the region this week.

Pre-IPO Zhejiang Taimei Medical Technology (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Declining customer retention rate indicates that a slowdown in future revenue growth seems inevitable. If revenue growth stagnates, it means Taimei’s business model hasn’t been fully validated by the market.
  • Taimei’s IPO on SSE STAR Market was rejected. This means regulatory authorities don’t recognize Taimei’s core technology/performance prospects. Taimei has to take a step back and list on the HKEX.
  • Post-Investment valuation reached RMB8.1 billion after Series F financing. However, considering the continuous decline in valuation of its peers, we are concerned about Taimei’s future stock price performance after IPO.

IREDA QIP Early Look – Strong Momentum, Although Valuations Are Eye-Popping

By Clarence Chu

  • IREDA (1845911D IN) is looking to raise INR45bn (US$538m) via its qualified institutional placement (QIP).
  • Most recently on 19th Sept 2024, IREDA received the Department of Investment and Public Asset Management’s (DIPAM) approval for said QIP.
  • Overall, the deal wouldn’t be a large one for the stock to digest at just 4.7 days of three month ADV.

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Sep 23
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Korea Zinc’s Latest Shareholder Roll & MBK’s Triggers to Sweeten Tender Price and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Zinc’s Latest Shareholder Roll & MBK’s Triggers to Sweeten Tender Price
  • KOSDAQ150 Index Adhoc Rebalance: HLB Therapeutics Replaces Jeisys Medical
  • Merger Arb Mondays (23 Sep) – Henlius, GA Pack, China TCM, Canvest, Trancom, Fuji Soft, Platinum
  • STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Massive Outperformance in Last Two Months; Time to Unwind?
  • PKSHA Tech (3993 JP) – TOPIX Inclusion in October 2024
  • Tech M&A: Qualcomm for Intel? No Chance. Here’s Why.
  • CELSYS (3663 JP) Finally Makes It to Prime Time (TOPIX Inclusion Next Month)
  • EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Ride the Fed Seesaw
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Dec 24: 5 Changes Possible; Exp ADDs yet to Outperform Exp DELs
  • Ain Shifts Focus with FrancFranc Acquisition

Korea Zinc’s Latest Shareholder Roll & MBK’s Triggers to Sweeten Tender Price

By Sanghyun Park

  • MBK is watching for a 1 million share trading volume, as that may prompt neutral institutional investors to sell rather than participate in the tender, triggering a price hike.
  • MBK may raise the tender price to ₩900,000, a 35% jump, with a local pension fund CIO suggesting it’s the sweet spot for participation.
  • MBK believes securing the minimum target would give them 44% voting rights, enough to push their proposals, indicating they’ll go all-in for that 7% stake in this first attempt.

KOSDAQ150 Index Adhoc Rebalance: HLB Therapeutics Replaces Jeisys Medical

By Brian Freitas

Merger Arb Mondays (23 Sep) – Henlius, GA Pack, China TCM, Canvest, Trancom, Fuji Soft, Platinum

By Arun George

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Massive Outperformance in Last Two Months; Time to Unwind?

By Brian Freitas

  • 90% of the way through the review period, there could be 1 change for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 5 changes for the STAR100 Index.
  • We estimate turnover of 1% for the STAR50 INDEX and 5.5% for the STAR100 Index. The net round-trip trade is CNY 3.2bn (US$453m).
  • The forecast add to the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) has massively outperformed the forecast deletion from the index over the last two months.

PKSHA Tech (3993 JP) – TOPIX Inclusion in October 2024

By Travis Lundy

  • PKSHA is an AI company. It was before this year, and got a boost this past spring. The stock price rose 60% in two weeks in February and March 2024.
  • Then it fell more than 50%. Back to late 2023 levels. High growth, growing into its valuations. Now moving to TSE Prime this week, TOPIX next month. 
  • Impact in days of ADV is lower than impact in Real World Float metrics. There are lots of day-traders. This probably has legs.

Tech M&A: Qualcomm for Intel? No Chance. Here’s Why.

By Neil Campling

  • SAMR would draw out review process for too long for a deal to be approved
  • Intel faces an existential crisis and even the new Foundry division has issues
  • A theoretical deal would have little financial synergy and destroy Qualcomm’s gross margins

CELSYS (3663 JP) Finally Makes It to Prime Time (TOPIX Inclusion Next Month)

By Travis Lundy

  • 12 days ago, Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA published his September version of TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (September 2024). His chosen name was CELSYS (3663 JP), a long-time TSE-Prime inclusion bet. 
  • This week on the 18th, they announced they were going to enter TSE Prime on 25 September. This was a somewhat well-known known. They were interested and had been. 
  • The stock popped 15% the next day. It’s a small cap, but there is a lot of float.

EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Ride the Fed Seesaw

By Sankalp Singh

  • IVs seesawed through the week on account of the Fed meeting. Trading up to 12.7% going into the meeting & selling-off to 11.4% thereafter.
  • Vol-Curve Term-structure in Contango post Fed meeting – Nifty50 vol curve sheds its inversion & BankNifty vol curve loses its kinked-shape
  • BankNifty Smile & Skew characteristics extend relative to previous weeks – despite falling IVs & strengthening index.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Dec 24: 5 Changes Possible; Exp ADDs yet to Outperform Exp DELs

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI Medical Service represents the top 50 largest and most-liquid stocks involved in medical devices, medical care, medical informatization, and other medical theme from the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing Exchanges.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.
  • We expect up to five ADDs and five DELs for the CSI Medical Service index during this index review event based on the latest available data.

Ain Shifts Focus with FrancFranc Acquisition

By Michael Causton

  • Ain is best known for running prescription pharmacies but also has a lifestyle-oriented cosmetics chain called Ainz & Tulpe.
  • Without this, the acquisition of FrancFranc would look odd, but the merger of the two will create genuine synergies and a lifestyle business targeting women in their 20s and 30s.
  • The move makes sense given the pressure on margins in drug dispensing, Ain’s main business.

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Sep 23
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Adaro Energy and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Adaro Energy, Medco Energi, Meituan

Morning Views Asia: Adaro Energy, Medco Energi, Meituan

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Sep 23
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outlook Is Around 10% QoQ Upside. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outlook Is Around 10% QoQ Upside.
  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Sell-Off Presents Buying Opportunity
  • Kolte Patil: New Launches Were Tepid In Q1 But FY25 Is On Track For Strong Performance
  • HCG: Executing Well With Prudent Expansion
  • Bajaj Finance: Mixed Q1, However Growth Trajectory Remains Intact
  • UMC (2303.TT; UMC US): The Outlook for 4Q24 Is Somewhat Bearish.
  • SMIC (981.HK): Surviving Amidst a Prolonged US-China Trade War
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Qualcomm Eyes Bold Intel Acquisition; Global Semi Sales Strength Continues
  • Weekly Consumer Tales: Shopee Youtube Tieup-China Home Price Slump-India’s Rising Gold, Iphone Sales
  • Webtoon Entertainment: A Weakening USD Will Give A Lift To 3Q Earnings, Founder Picked Up 42K Shares

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outlook Is Around 10% QoQ Upside.

By Patrick Liao

  • We anticipate that the upcoming 4Q24 will likely see a ~10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) upside.
  • Among TSMC’s top clients are companies from the US, Taiwan, and Japan.
  • Recently, we have heard that TSMC is reducing wafer quotations by about ~10% for 28nm and below, in order to adapt to the current environment.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Sell-Off Presents Buying Opportunity

By Scott Foster

  • Kokusai has dropped 44% from its July peak, offering a long-term opportunity at reasonably attractive valuations. Management’s guidance looks conservative.
  • KKR has reduced its stake from 43.4% to 23.2%, increasing the float while indicating that it still sees a long-term opportunity. Applied Materials has bought 14.7% of the company.
  • The completion of a new factory in Japan should double production capacity to meet demand from makers of AI processors, high-bandwidth memory, 3D NAND and power devices.

Kolte Patil: New Launches Were Tepid In Q1 But FY25 Is On Track For Strong Performance

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Kolte Patil reported a decent Q1FY25 with pre-sales of INR 711cr. This was lower than expected, however, adjusted for weak new launch activity, it was healthy.
  • Q1FY25 pre-sales was mostly led by sustenance sales. New launches worth INR 1500cr have been initiated mostly in Q2FY25, thus will start reflecting in 2HFY25 pre-sales numbers.
  • With highest-ever quarterly collection at INR 612cr, operating cash flows has remained strong. The balance sheet remains robust with negative net debt, allowing Kolte Patil to aggressively pursue new projects.

HCG: Executing Well With Prudent Expansion

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • HCG reported a decent Q1FY25 with revenue growth of 16.7% YoY, adjusted for a discontinued center in Bangalore. Growth was robust across both established and emerging centers.
  • Emerging centers (Kolkata, Borivali and South Mumbai) grew strong at 33% YoY while established centers also grew healthy at 14% YoY. All emerging centers, but South Mumbai center, are profitable.
  • We estimate that HCG could post a PAT of around INR 280cr+ by FY27. An investment in HCG at the current level has potential to provide an upside of 85%+.  

Bajaj Finance: Mixed Q1, However Growth Trajectory Remains Intact

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Bajaj Finance (“BAF”) reported a decent Q1FY25 with robust AUM growth, however, loan losses came in slightly elevated. AUM grew 31% YoY to reach INR 3,54,192cr.
  • Annualized credit cost inched up to 2.1% vs 1.75-1.85% guided for FY25. This was led largely by weak collection efficiency. BAF is working on enhancing its collection infrastructure.
  • BAF listed its housing finance subsidiary on Sep 16, unlocking value for the shareholders. It created history with highest-ever subscription amount and got listed at a premium of 114%.

UMC (2303.TT; UMC US): The Outlook for 4Q24 Is Somewhat Bearish.

By Patrick Liao

  • The outlook for 4Q24 appears somewhat bearish at the moment, though it has not been fully defined before the end of October.
  • Taiwanese companies such as MediaTek Inc (2454 TT), Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) and Realtek Semiconductor (2379 TT) continue to be the main drivers of demand for UMC.
  • On a positive note, there are warnings against overly relying on chips from Chinese manufacturers due to US sanctions.

SMIC (981.HK): Surviving Amidst a Prolonged US-China Trade War

By Patrick Liao

  • SMIC’s revenue might be looking at around US$2bn in 4Q24 and it’s a bit reduction of GM from 3Q24 because of the seasonality at the year end.
  • Since around 2019, US was putting an sanction on China, no matter how the argument is true.
  • SMIC continued delivering 7nm chips, and even the 5nm chips could be further delivered using a similar method, although the yield rate may be a concern.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Qualcomm Eyes Bold Intel Acquisition; Global Semi Sales Strength Continues

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Qualcomm Eyes Bold, Friendly Intel Acquisition Amid Intel’s Existential Crisis
  • Global Semi Sales Strength Continues In July. How Long Can It Last? 
  • Asustek Soars, Uniquely Making Fresh 52-Week Highs Within PC Makers

Weekly Consumer Tales: Shopee Youtube Tieup-China Home Price Slump-India’s Rising Gold, Iphone Sales

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Welcome to Consumer Tales & Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.
  • Sea (SE US) owned Shopee has partnered with YouTube to drive GMV growth and resist  competition with TikTok, which has strengthened its regional presence through its stake in Tokopedia,
  • India’s strong shopping appetite was reflected in robust gold purchases in August and high demand for the iPhone 16 launched last week.

Webtoon Entertainment: A Weakening USD Will Give A Lift To 3Q Earnings, Founder Picked Up 42K Shares

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Webtoon Entertainment, a Korean the world’s largest digital comics platform, has successfully completed IPO and private placement in June.
  • The NAVER-backed storytelling platform has raised ~$359M and priced its IPO and concurrent private placement at $21.00 per share, at the top end of price range.  
  • However, Webtoon Entertainment shares significantly underperformed with shares down ~48% below IPO offer price.

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Sep 23
0

Daily Brief Macro: Aggressive Start to Fed Policy Easing Cycle Aimed at Reducing Stress at Low Income Consumers? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Aggressive Start to Fed Policy Easing Cycle Aimed at Reducing Stress at Low Income Consumers?
  • S&P 500 Breakout or Fake-Out?
  • U.S. Soft Landing: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
  • Copper Tracker Sep 23rd, 2024: Markets Volatile, Accumulate Good Copper Names On Weakness
  • The BoJ Keep Rate Unchanged in the Sep 20 Meeting
  • Iron Ore Tracker (23-Sep-2024): Liquidity in China Provides Relief, Still Bearish Short-Term

Aggressive Start to Fed Policy Easing Cycle Aimed at Reducing Stress at Low Income Consumers?

By Said Desaque

  • The Fed has begun its easing cycle with an aggressive 50 basis points reduction in its policy rate, but, thereafter, conduct will remain data dependent.
  • Lower-Income household stress has become increasingly evident over the past year, particularly in subprime auto loans and credit cards. Lenders have tightened lending standards and accepted higher bad debt charge-offs. 
  • Lower-Income households will benefit more directly from the Fed’s policy shift due to their higher exposure to liabilities priced off short-term interest rates.

S&P 500 Breakout or Fake-Out?

By Cam Hui

  • The stock market is exhibiting strong positive price momentum, but in the face of a seasonally weak period for stocks.
  • In Finance Land, seasonality determines the climate, and the combination of fundamental, technical and macro factors determine the day-to-day weather.
  • In the very short term, the weather is bullish, but stock prices are ultimately determined by the growth and interest rate outlook.

U.S. Soft Landing: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

By Cam Hui

  • A U.S. economic soft landing has become the overwhelming consensus, what could possibly go wrong? A growing chasm is appearing between bond and stock market expectations.
  • The bond market is expecting nearly 2% in rate cuts to September 2025, which signals recession, while the stock market is expecting strong earnings growth amidst elevated P/E valuations.
  • We find that conditions are supportive of a soft landing.

Copper Tracker Sep 23rd, 2024: Markets Volatile, Accumulate Good Copper Names On Weakness

By Sameer Taneja

The BoJ Keep Rate Unchanged in the Sep 20 Meeting

By Alex Ng

  • At the September 20 meeting, the BoJ keep rate unchanged at 0.25% and guide there will be more tightening by suggesting the current inflationary trajectory aligns with BoJ’s forecast
  • . The BoJ has taken a hawkish tilt in the July meeting by providing a hawkish forward guidance.
  • “If outlook for economic activity and prices are realised, will continue to raise policy rates and adjust degree of monetary accommodation accordingly”

Iron Ore Tracker (23-Sep-2024): Liquidity in China Provides Relief, Still Bearish Short-Term

By Sameer Taneja

  • Iron underperformed the commodity complex, falling 1.2% WoW, vs the average complex performance of 3% WoW. 
  • PBOC rate cuts have yet to spur borrowing significantly. Despite the seasonal uptick, loan growth has trended negatively.  
  • We remain cautious till China shows any sign of a pick-up in demand. Indicators like mill margins and property/auto demand continue to be uninspiring. 

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Sep 23
0

Daily Brief Australia: Iron Ore and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Iron Ore Tracker (23-Sep-2024): Liquidity in China Provides Relief, Still Bearish Short-Term

Iron Ore Tracker (23-Sep-2024): Liquidity in China Provides Relief, Still Bearish Short-Term

By Sameer Taneja

  • Iron underperformed the commodity complex, falling 1.2% WoW, vs the average complex performance of 3% WoW. 
  • PBOC rate cuts have yet to spur borrowing significantly. Despite the seasonal uptick, loan growth has trended negatively.  
  • We remain cautious till China shows any sign of a pick-up in demand. Indicators like mill margins and property/auto demand continue to be uninspiring. 

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Sep 23
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Zinc, HLB Therapeutics , Webtoon Entertainment and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Zinc’s Latest Shareholder Roll & MBK’s Triggers to Sweeten Tender Price
  • KOSDAQ150 Index Adhoc Rebalance: HLB Therapeutics Replaces Jeisys Medical
  • Webtoon Entertainment: A Weakening USD Will Give A Lift To 3Q Earnings, Founder Picked Up 42K Shares

Korea Zinc’s Latest Shareholder Roll & MBK’s Triggers to Sweeten Tender Price

By Sanghyun Park

  • MBK is watching for a 1 million share trading volume, as that may prompt neutral institutional investors to sell rather than participate in the tender, triggering a price hike.
  • MBK may raise the tender price to ₩900,000, a 35% jump, with a local pension fund CIO suggesting it’s the sweet spot for participation.
  • MBK believes securing the minimum target would give them 44% voting rights, enough to push their proposals, indicating they’ll go all-in for that 7% stake in this first attempt.

KOSDAQ150 Index Adhoc Rebalance: HLB Therapeutics Replaces Jeisys Medical

By Brian Freitas

Webtoon Entertainment: A Weakening USD Will Give A Lift To 3Q Earnings, Founder Picked Up 42K Shares

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Webtoon Entertainment, a Korean the world’s largest digital comics platform, has successfully completed IPO and private placement in June.
  • The NAVER-backed storytelling platform has raised ~$359M and priced its IPO and concurrent private placement at $21.00 per share, at the top end of price range.  
  • However, Webtoon Entertainment shares significantly underperformed with shares down ~48% below IPO offer price.

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Sep 23
0

Daily Brief Singapore: Sea and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Consumer Tales: Shopee Youtube Tieup-China Home Price Slump-India’s Rising Gold, Iphone Sales

Weekly Consumer Tales: Shopee Youtube Tieup-China Home Price Slump-India’s Rising Gold, Iphone Sales

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Welcome to Consumer Tales & Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.
  • Sea (SE US) owned Shopee has partnered with YouTube to drive GMV growth and resist  competition with TikTok, which has strengthened its regional presence through its stake in Tokopedia,
  • India’s strong shopping appetite was reflected in robust gold purchases in August and high demand for the iPhone 16 launched last week.

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Sep 23
0

Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, Copper and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Tech M&A: Qualcomm for Intel? No Chance. Here’s Why.
  • Copper Tracker Sep 23rd, 2024: Markets Volatile, Accumulate Good Copper Names On Weakness

Tech M&A: Qualcomm for Intel? No Chance. Here’s Why.

By Neil Campling

  • SAMR would draw out review process for too long for a deal to be approved
  • Intel faces an existential crisis and even the new Foundry division has issues
  • A theoretical deal would have little financial synergy and destroy Qualcomm’s gross margins

Copper Tracker Sep 23rd, 2024: Markets Volatile, Accumulate Good Copper Names On Weakness

By Sameer Taneja

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