Category

Daily Briefs

Sep 16
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 13th): Samsung Electronics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 13th): Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 13th): Quanta Computer, TSMC, Ctbc Financial
  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Sep 13th): Quanta Computer, TSMC, Ase Industrial

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 13th): Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Sep 13th which has an aggregated holding worth USD544.5bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,610mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 13th): Quanta Computer, TSMC, Ctbc Financial

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Sep 13th which has an aggregated holding worth USD938.6bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,475mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Quanta Computer, TSMC, Ctbc Financial, Hon Hai Precision Industry.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Sep 13th): Quanta Computer, TSMC, Ase Industrial

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Sep 13th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.2bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Quanta Computer, TSMC, Ase Industrial, Zhen Ding Technology Holding, Shin Kong Financial, Mediatek.

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value

Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value

By Michael Causton

  • Core inflation rates remain stubbornly high and real wages are still falling. 
  • Surveys suggest one more major round of price hikes in October but the government still thinks prices will stabilise below its 2% target by the end of the year.
  • The increases are lowering consumer confidence – bad news for most retailers, although major discount chains are making hay while the sun, well, doesn’t shine.

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief ECM: Midea Group: Offer Upsized at Top Tier. Updated Valuation Analysis and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Midea Group: Offer Upsized at Top Tier. Updated Valuation Analysis
  • Pre-IPO Midea Group H Share – Here Are the Risks Behind
  • Bajaj Housing Finance IPO – Valuation Might Get Stretched from Demand Overflow
  • ECM Weekly (16th Sep 2024) – Midea, Bajaj Housing, 99 Speed, P N Gadgil, Hozon, Trial, NextDC, Via

Midea Group: Offer Upsized at Top Tier. Updated Valuation Analysis

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Midea Group(000333 CH)  has increased the shares on offer in Hong Kong by 15% to 565.9 million shares, priced at the top end of the range at HKD54.8 per share.
  • With strong investor interest, the company may exercise an over allotment option that could take the deal size to USD 4.6 billion.
  • Midea’s Hong Kong pricing reflects a nearly 21% discount to its A-share closing price, compared to the average 33% discount for dual-listed companies between Hong Kong and Shanghai or Shenzhen.

Pre-IPO Midea Group H Share – Here Are the Risks Behind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • For the reasons why Midea is eager to IPO in HK, investors shouldn’t just look at the surface of its glory, but delve into the “real motives” behind capital operations.
  • The policy of subsidizing the trade-in of home appliances belongs to “early overdraft of demand” and is unsustainable. Valuation logic for the performance increment brought by such policy is P/B.
  • If Midea cannot achieve the expected breakthroughs in To B business or internationalization in 2025-2026 to hedge against the weak domestic business, Midea’s performance/valuation in following years would inevitable decline.

Bajaj Housing Finance IPO – Valuation Might Get Stretched from Demand Overflow

By Sumeet Singh

  • Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) raised around US$800m in its India IPO.
  • BHF is a non-deposit taking housing finance company engaged in mortgage lending since FY18. Its mortgage products include home loans, loans against property, lease rental discounting and developer financing.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuation. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

ECM Weekly (16th Sep 2024) – Midea, Bajaj Housing, 99 Speed, P N Gadgil, Hozon, Trial, NextDC, Via

By Sumeet Singh

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: The New FEFTA List (With 7&I (3382) As “Core”) Is Not a Big Hurdle for Couche-Tard and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • The New FEFTA List (With 7&I (3382) As “Core”) Is Not a Big Hurdle for Couche-Tard
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec 24: One Change Possible; US$538 Capping Flows One-Way
  • MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Ingenia Communities Deleted
  • Global Index Korea: Hyundai Rotem Is the Only One Screened. Watch for a Possible LS Electric Repeat
  • Merger Arb Mondays (16 Sep) – China TCM, Canvest, GA Pack, Raysum, Seven & I, Fuji Soft, Dyna-Mac
  • MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes, Capping to Drive Flow
  • MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Deletion & Other Changes

The New FEFTA List (With 7&I (3382) As “Core”) Is Not a Big Hurdle for Couche-Tard

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday 13 September, the Ministry of Finance of Japan released revisions to the list (Japanese, English) of company classifications under the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act (FEFTA)
  • It appears 72 names were newly upgraded to “Core” (“3”), 21 newly listed companies (since the last list in Nov 2021) were labeled “3”, and six lost their Type3 designation. 
  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) saw breathless news articles Friday suggesting a foreign takeover became more difficult. Not really. 

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec 24: One Change Possible; US$538 Capping Flows One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • At present, we see one ADD and one DEL. If this index change takes place, there could be US$538mn capping flows one-way.

MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Ingenia Communities Deleted

By Brian Freitas

Global Index Korea: Hyundai Rotem Is the Only One Screened. Watch for a Possible LS Electric Repeat

By Sanghyun Park

  • The cutoff market cap is around ₩3.6T, and Hyundai Rotem is the only stock that screens into the inclusion zone.
  • Hyundai Rotem might see a repeat of LS Electric’s pattern: heavy chasing towards screening and a big dive at the decision. Watch for aggressive momentum trades starting late September.
  • The stock with the lowest full market cap, Kum Yang, is at risk, but Celltrion Pharm is close behind. KT Corp’s exclusion might save Kum Yang or Celltrion Pharm.

Merger Arb Mondays (16 Sep) – China TCM, Canvest, GA Pack, Raysum, Seven & I, Fuji Soft, Dyna-Mac

By Arun George

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes, Capping to Drive Flow

By Brian Freitas

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Deletion & Other Changes

By Brian Freitas

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Adaro Energy and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Adaro Energy, Vedanta Resources, Yankuang Energy Group

Morning Views Asia: Adaro Energy, Vedanta Resources, Yankuang Energy Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Returning to Higher Trading Range? ASE’s Two Upcoming Events and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Returning to Higher Trading Range? ASE’s Two Upcoming Events
  • Weekly Consumer Tales: Cross Border Comm Crisis-Midea Upsized-LG Elecs’ Upside-Platform Workers Law
  • COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Better Safety Margin Now
  • A Potential October Strike at US East & Gulf Coast Container Ports Is Unlikely to Be Impactful
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – September 2024
  • BirdDog Technology Limited – A refocussed opportunity

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Returning to Higher Trading Range? ASE’s Two Upcoming Events

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +16.6% Premium; Returning to the 15 – 20% Trading Range?
  • UMC: +0.5% Premium; Near the Middle of the Historical Trading Range
  • ASE: +5.2% Premium; Participating in Two Investor Conferences in Next Two Weeks

Weekly Consumer Tales: Cross Border Comm Crisis-Midea Upsized-LG Elecs’ Upside-Platform Workers Law

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Welcome to Consumer Tales & Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.
  • Temu, (owned by PDD US), and Shein might need to rethink their US strategies if a new rule stops overseas shipments of tariffed products from bypassing US customs duty.
  • Singapore passed a groundbreaking law last week to protect gig workers. Other countries may follow suit and this could adversely impact margins. Take note: Meituan (3690 HK) , Zomato (ZOMATO IN)

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Better Safety Margin Now

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The P/B multiple of Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (H) (1138 HK) has pulled back to 0.8x now, from 1.3x three months ago. The risk-reward payoff has improved.
  • Historically, there is no long-term correlation between oil prices and share prices. Hence, we should not be overfocused on the recent pullback in oil prices.
  • Although the market consensus is high, FY24 should still see growth. The 3Q24 VLCC spot rate is 27.4% higher YoY, potentially boosting quarterly results and sustaining a high FY24 yield. 

A Potential October Strike at US East & Gulf Coast Container Ports Is Unlikely to Be Impactful

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Workers at US East/Gulf Coast ports could strike without new contract by Oct 1st
  • But data suggest importers have been boosting inventory over past few months
  • Although US West Coast port workers support ILA, they’re unlikely to strike

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – September 2024

By Sameer Taneja

BirdDog Technology Limited – A refocussed opportunity

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has initiated coverage of video software and hardware technology group BirdDog Technology (ASX:BDT) with a base case valuation of $0.27/share, representing 335% potential upside to the current share price.
  • A challenging FY24 is now behind the business and the causes of the problems have been addressed and resolved, in our view.
  • BDT invested heavily in R&D through the downturn with the investment program set to yield results on a strong revenue uptick from the release of multiple new products across several categories.

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief Macro: What If the Magnificent Seven Are Done? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • What If the Magnificent Seven Are Done?
  • FX Weekly Strategy: G10, September 16th-20th
  • The Slow March to Fiscal Dominance
  • Pace of Fed Policy Easing Dependent on Future Labour Market Weakness Impacting Growth

What If the Magnificent Seven Are Done?

By Cam Hui

  • We continue to expect market sloppiness for September and possibly October. The market has flashed a cluster of Hindenburg Omens for five consecutive weeks.
  • Investment oriented accounts should regard any near-term weakness as a buying opportunity.
  • Pullbacks are normal at this point of the election year, and we expect higher stock prices by year-end.

FX Weekly Strategy: G10, September 16th-20th

By Alex Ng

  • Market focused on FOMC with significant risk of a 50bp cut still seen.
  • USD upside looks quite limited given current yield spreads. GBP risks still mainly on the downside even if BoE leaves rate unchanged.
  • Hard to oppose JPY strength NOK weakness overdue a correction, but Norges Bank may not help .

The Slow March to Fiscal Dominance

By Cam Hui

  • The sovereign debt levels of major developed economies are well on the path to fiscal dominance, underpinned by the U.S. fiscal trajectory.
  • Mario Draghi’s proposals for European competitiveness also highlighted a need for debt-financed investments that will also substantially raise EU debt to GDP ratios.
  • Investors should expect a regime shift toward higher term premiums on bonds and from paper assets to hard assets in the coming years.

Pace of Fed Policy Easing Dependent on Future Labour Market Weakness Impacting Growth

By Said Desaque

  • Not all economic indicators will simultaneously flash recession warning signals due to changing labour market dynamics, but Fed officials are wary about the rising unemployment rate.
  • Since the COVID-19 pandemic ended, the vacancy rate has exceeded unemployment, resulting in a steeper Beveridge Curve that could enhance the Fed’s chances of producing a soft landing.
  • Fed policy can support equity valuations only if money is diverted from money market funds into bond funds, an outcome that will lower expected returns on bonds relative to equities.

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief Australia: Ingenia Communities, Pro Medicus Ltd, Sayona Mining, BirdDog Technology and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Ingenia Communities Deleted
  • MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes, Capping to Drive Flow
  • MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Deletion & Other Changes
  • BirdDog Technology Limited – A refocussed opportunity

MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Ingenia Communities Deleted

By Brian Freitas

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes, Capping to Drive Flow

By Brian Freitas

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Deletion & Other Changes

By Brian Freitas

BirdDog Technology Limited – A refocussed opportunity

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has initiated coverage of video software and hardware technology group BirdDog Technology (ASX:BDT) with a base case valuation of $0.27/share, representing 335% potential upside to the current share price.
  • A challenging FY24 is now behind the business and the causes of the problems have been addressed and resolved, in our view.
  • BDT invested heavily in R&D through the downturn with the investment program set to yield results on a strong revenue uptick from the release of multiple new products across several categories.

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Hyundai Rotem Company and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Index Korea: Hyundai Rotem Is the Only One Screened. Watch for a Possible LS Electric Repeat

Global Index Korea: Hyundai Rotem Is the Only One Screened. Watch for a Possible LS Electric Repeat

By Sanghyun Park

  • The cutoff market cap is around ₩3.6T, and Hyundai Rotem is the only stock that screens into the inclusion zone.
  • Hyundai Rotem might see a repeat of LS Electric’s pattern: heavy chasing towards screening and a big dive at the decision. Watch for aggressive momentum trades starting late September.
  • The stock with the lowest full market cap, Kum Yang, is at risk, but Celltrion Pharm is close behind. KT Corp’s exclusion might save Kum Yang or Celltrion Pharm.

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief United States: Evergreen Marine Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • A Potential October Strike at US East & Gulf Coast Container Ports Is Unlikely to Be Impactful

A Potential October Strike at US East & Gulf Coast Container Ports Is Unlikely to Be Impactful

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Workers at US East/Gulf Coast ports could strike without new contract by Oct 1st
  • But data suggest importers have been boosting inventory over past few months
  • Although US West Coast port workers support ILA, they’re unlikely to strike

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