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Weekly Top Ten

Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – Feb 24, 2025

By | Equity Derivatives
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.

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1. Alibaba (9988 HK): How Options Traders Are Navigating the Rally and Volatility. Top Trades.

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • This Insight analyses Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) tailor-made option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.
  • These traders tailor structures to risk budgets and take calculated bets. Several large box trades appeared on the ticker.
  • Expect more movement on Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)‘s Q3 earnings announcement tomorrow, 20 February 2025. Option-implied move at the end of this Insight.

2. Alibaba – How to Position Post Earnings Amid Sticky Volatility

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

  • Alibaba had a super charged move this week, risking 14.56% on its earnings release.
  • We look at how price movement and volatility evolve in the month after earnings releases.
  • Recommendations are made on how to position through options in this environment of enhanced volatility.

3. NIFTY Poised to Reignite Its Uptrend, But Faces Short-Term Obstacles

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

  • It has been a 5-months journey for the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , from its last peak in September 2024, to its current lows.
  • Our WEEKLY model indicates a (mildly) OVERSOLD state (Friday at Close, 22929). If the index pulls back a bit more, it’s a BUY but keep reading…
  • Our tactical short-term model has found limited upside for the NIFTY at the moment, so the long-waited restart of the uptrend may be a bit bumpy.

4. HSI Index Options Weekly (Feb 17-21): Alibaba Reignites Momentum

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

  • The scorching rally continues with Alibaba saving a lackluster week with huge earnings driven move on Friday.
  • Implied vols are in the 85th percentile and struggling to move higher with spot.
  • Third week in a row where Call volume as a percent of total slipped indicating that buying fatigue might be setting in.

5. Xiaomi (1810 HK) – Riding the Wave. How Option Traders Navigate. Top Trades Analyzed.

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • This Insight analyses Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) tailor-made option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.
  • These traders tailor structures to risk budgets and take calculated bets. Strategies are mostly bullish, and exclusively long volatility despite implied volatility in its 98th percentile.
  • Call spreads can indicate where bullish traders expect the rally, driven by its own momentum, to peak. One trade suggests a ceiling of 70 by mid-year.

6. Kospi Index Options Weekly (February 10 – 14): Call Volumes Rebound

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

  • Very low volatility rally with Kospi up 2.63% but still 7% below the 52-week high.
  • Implied vols moving in opposition to the rally, dropping 1 point on the week.
  • Call volumes rebounded significantly with the most active Call strike trading more than twice as much as the most active Put strike.

7. HSCEI Index Options Weekly (Feb 17-21): Implied Vol Weak Despite Rally

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

  • HSCEI sets a new 52-week high, helped in part by the large earnings related move from Alibaba to finish the week.
  • Implied vol struggling to keep up with the rally in spot, dropping 3 points despite Friday’s furious rally.
  • We show how the relationship between spot and vol over the past month has not been the norm compared to the previous year’s activity.

8. KOSPI 200 – Upcoming BOK Rate Decision: Navigating Market Moves and Profit Opportunities

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Bank of Korea is expected to cut interest rates to 2.75% on 25 February 2025. The decision, however, is not expected to be unanimous and some analysts argue against.
  • Historical data from 120 BoK announcements and subsequent moves in the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY) is examined.
  • Options market pricing seems to lean toward a “surprise and no-change” outcome. Traders can seek opportunities with short straddles or long puts depending on anticipated outcomes.

9. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (February 17 – 21): Option Volumes Surge as Rally Narrows

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

  • Mixed bag with narrowing participation, widening distribution of returns but with the highest total option volume since November.
  • Option volumes over the past 2 weeks are 80% higher than the prior 3-month average.
  • Implied vols weaker across the board with 9 of 11 sectors seeing softer implieds.

10. Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Feb 17 – 21): USD/JPY at Inflection Point

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

  • The 150 level on USD/JPY seems to be an area of heightened interest. We see potential for greater disparity of Nikkei returns below this level.
  • Nikkei 1-month implied vol is at the 17th percentile; while not currently monetizing, caution is warranted on short vol positions as USD/JPY vol trends higher.
  • Call volume dropped sharply vs total volume, with Puts outpacing Calls every day this week.

Weekly Top Ten Tech Hardware and Semiconductor – Feb 23, 2025

By | Tech Hardware and Semiconductor
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.

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1. Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC & Broadcom Exploring Intel Acquisition — Implications

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • TSMC & Broadcom Exploring Intel Acquisitions; Potential Major Consolidation in the Foundry Space
  • Taiwan AI Server Leader Expanding to Texas with New Production Hub
  • Semi WFE Revenues Increase ~7% YoY In 2024. 2025 Looks Much The Same. So, Where’s The AI Effect? 

2. Intel. What’s Really Going On?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • Carving out IFS & taking it private is the most likely outcome for Intel. However, it’s complicated by the SCIP deals and restrictions attached to the CHIPS money.  
  • Intel Products Group most likely stays with Intel, maintaining the iconic brand and doubling down on efficiency and innovation. I don’t think it gets sold. 
  • TSMC is unlikely to have any technical role in a spun out Intel Foundry due to a myriad of reasons including monopoly, conflict of interest, insufficient bandwidth etc.

3. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Eases Down; Massive Change in UMC Headroom

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • TSMC: +22.2% Premium; Wait for Higher Level Before Fresh Short of Spread
  • UMC: 0% Premium (Parity) — Massive Increase in ADR Headroom
  • ChipMOS: +0.5% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Levels; Earnings Ahead

4. Himax Sees Chinese Automakers Far Ahead in Adopting Touch Displays; CoPackaged Optics Key for AI/HPC

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • Himax 4Q24 Results Show Auto Display Surge — Structural Growth Story Visible with Touch Panel Usage in Vehicles Soaring
  • China vs. the Rest of the World: Who’s Moving Faster? China Automakers Far Ahead in Display Sophistication
  • Himax on Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) — A Critical New Technology for AI and HPC Processing

5. Semi WFE Revenues Increase ~7% YoY In 2024. 2025 Looks Much The Same. So, Where’s The AI Effect?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • Q424 revenues for the top 5 WFE players amounted to $28.7 billion, up 10% QoQ and up 21.7% YoY and an all time record high quarterly revenue for the segment
  • For the full year 2024, revenues amounted to $99.74 billion, up 7% sequentially, and slightly exceeding our forecasted 5% growth.
  • WFE growth in 2025 will be similar to 2024, with slowing China spending coupled with historic over capacity across the industry countering anticipated AI & technology transition related increases 

6. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will TSMC Work on Intel Foundry Services? There Are Three Paradoxes…

By Patrick Liao

  • It is a paradox US President wanted to make the US the number one semiconductor manufacturing country but is very likely unable to change the existing environment in the US.
  • Another paradox is that a foreign company must obtain approval from the relevant US authorities before transferring control of the specific US company, which may not be feasible.
  • It raises the third paradox that a Taiwanese company would need to operate an existing US entity with their company’s expertise under different cost conditions.  

7. Screen Holdings (7735 JP): 25%+ Upside Potential

By Scott Foster, LightStream Research

  • FY Mar-25 guidance has been raised again after strong 3Q results. Growth should continue next fiscal year with rising demand from TSMC. 
  • Sales to Chinese customers bounced back strongly last quarter, defying predictions. Capacity adds and process upgrades should continue to drive demand from China.
  • FPD, PCB and printing equipment are now profitable and should remain so. More efficient production and slower growth in depreciation should also support the operating margin.

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Feb 23, 2025

By | Equity Capital Markets
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Goodman Group (GMG AU) – Big Placement, Big Index Flow But…

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • After a minor “disaster” in a secondary placement in December, this morning industrial/infrastructure (including data centres) REIT/etc Goodman Group (GMG AU) announced results and an A$4bn primary offering.
  • The large offering comes at a 6.9% discount, and For a combination of reasons, there is a LOT of buying to do with index tracking over the next short while. 
  • But that too has complications. Some is immediate. Some a little delayed. A bunch may be supplied by short sellers. There is one easy trade. A few more complicated.

2. Sony To Sell Down SRE Holdings (2980 JP) Block – AI-Related Growth Stock Should See Support

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • SRE Holdings Corp (2980 JP) does a business in AI Cloud&Consulting for the real estate, finance, and Life & Healthcare business. Sony Corp (6758 JP) is selling a stake.
  • The offering is for about US$50mm assuming a 10% discount today’s close. It is not clear how much this was expected but there is a decent-sized short position. 
  • The stock has its ups and downs, and recently decided it liked Q3 earnings and guidance. That bodes well for the offering.

3. JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – The Positives – Transforming

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

  • JX Advance Metal’s (JXAM) parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
  • JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used  in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

4. Goodman Group Placement – Large Deal, Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged, Not Particularly Exciting

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

  • Goodman Group (GMG AU) is looking to raise around US$2.5bn to partly fund its data centre expansion plans.
  • Goodman’s shares have performed exceptionally well over the past year, driven by its pivot towards data centers.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

5. JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Isn’t There Yet

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

  • JX Advance Metal’s (JXAM) parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
  • JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

6. JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is a global leader in the semiconductor and ICT materials sector. It is seeking to raise up to US$2.6 billion.  
  • JXAM is a wholly owned subsidiary of ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP). After the listing, it is expected to become an equity-method affiliate of ENEOS.   
  • The bull case rests on its leading market position, focus businesses’ improving performance, improving profitability, shift to cash generation, and low leverage. 

7. MIXUE Group IPO: The Leading Player that Justifies a Premium

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Mixue Group (MIX HK) has a whopping market share of 32.7% in 2023, based on number of cups sold. It also has the highest profit in the sector.
  • With a strong profit record and net cash, it is a leader that captures industry growth. Its extensive network targets low-tier cities’ potential and the franchise model drives expansion.  
  • It justifies trading on a premium to sector average PER of 19.6x for FY25. If aligning P/B with ROE on the best-fit line, it should be priced at 5.1x pre-money.

8. Sotetsu Holdings (9003) – Crossholders Sell Down – Big ADV Multiple, Low Earnings Multiple, Boring

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Sotetsu Holdings (9003 JP) today announced a large-ish secondary equity offering – 10% of shares out and 20% of Max Real World Float. 
  • This is crossholders selling down roughly 30% of what they own. Sotetsu announced a buyback for a quarter of the offering over the next six months.
  • The shareholder structure and distribution within Max Real World Float tells you all you need to know.

9. Tsumura (4540 JP) Equity Offering – Easy To Swallow, and Not Expensive

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Tsumura & Co (4540 JP) shocked everyone a year ago when they announced an immediate large price hike across the board for its kampo medicines. The stock was +35% immediately.
  • It did not fall back. Now the stock is up 60% from a year ago and earnings are too. It’s still <10x PER. Now we get a ¥10bn secondary offering.
  • It’s 12 days of ADV but not super heavy, and there is a buyback on the back end.

10. Hexaware Technologies IPO Trading – Very Strong Anchor, Very Poor Overall

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

  • Hexaware Technologies raised around US$1bn in its India IPO, while its anchor book was strong, overall coverage was not. 
  • Hexaware is a global digital and technology services company with AI at its core, delivering innovative solutions that help customers in their digital transformation journey and subsequent operations.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – Feb 23, 2025

By | Event-Driven and Index Rebalance
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.

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1. Goodman Group (GMG AU): Much Bigger Index Impact of US$2.5bn Equity Offering

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • Goodman Group went into a trading halt and then announced results and an underwritten equity placement of A$4bn (US$2.54bn) to pursue growth opportunities across logistics and data center operations.
  • The stock has dropped since CIC’s stake sale in December but still continues to handily outperform peers.
  • There will be some passive buying in the stock at the time of share settlement and more a few days later to mop up around 37% of the offering.

2. Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 7 March.
  • With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 2.75% with 3 stocks being capped downward. This gives the index committee the opportunity to add more stocks without significantly increasing turnover.
  • The return of the high and medium probability inclusions has matched the performance of the Hang Seng Index over the last few months, Shorts have climbed in some names.

3. Alibaba (9988 HK): Results This Week; Over US$1bn Passive Selling in 3 Weeks

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) stock has rallied bigly over the last month and has gained 55% over that period.
  • That has led to Alibaba‘s weight in the HSI INDEX, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH INDEX and HSIII Index rising above the cap of 8%/12% and passives will sell on 7 March.
  • We estimate passive trackers will need to sell US$1.2bn of stock due to capping. Shorts have been increasing, and quarterly results will be announced on 20 February.

4. India: March Rebalance Announcement Tomorrow; Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.5bn

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • The Index Maintenance Sub-Committee of NSE Indices will meet on 21 February to conduct a semi-annual and quarterly review of stocks in various Nifty equity indices.
  • The changes will be announced after market close tomorrow and will be implemented at the close of trading on 28 March.
  • Based on the forecast index changes and capping changes for a few indices, the round-trip trade will be over US$2.5bn and many stocks will have over 0.5x ADV to trade.

5. [Quiddity Index Feb25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 2 or 3 IN, 2 or 3 OUT, ~$3bn 1-Way, 1 Squeeze.

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors


6. Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Scheme Privatisation at HK$1.58

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • Tam Jai International (2217 HK) announced a scheme privatisation offer from TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation (3397 JP) at HK$1.58 per share, a 75.6% premium to the last close price. 
  • The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (<10% disinterested shareholders rejection). No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
  • The offer price is final. While 53% below the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. This is a done deal. 

7. MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in March; Multiple Overlaps

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • With 6 days left to review cutoff, there are 2 potential adds and 3 potential deletions for the MV Australia Equal Weight Index at the March rebalance.
  • Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3% and a round-trip trade of A$159m.
  • The final list of inclusions/exclusions will depend on price movements till next Friday and whether the provider makes any significant changes to the free float of stocks in the universe.

8. Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Excellent Offer

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors


9. CVC Extends Macromill (3978) Bid and Invites Two Funds To Reinvest – More Interesting Than You Think

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Today, the closing date of the Tender Offer for Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) by CVC saw the tender offer extended by an extra 10 days with new news.
  • Price had been declared final. One very large shareholder had said they would not tender. Two more were negotiating. Those two will now tender and reinvest in the back end.
  • This does not mean the tender offer is a done deal, but it is worth examining.

10. JIC Launches Shinko (6967) Deal At ¥5,920/Share

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Today quite late, the JIC Consortium announced the launch of the Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) Tender Offer expected “mid-February”. Price is still ¥5,920/share. 
  • This is basically going to be all arbs and passive now. And arbs gonna arb.
  • Congrats if you bought the lows in late November early December. Great trade. Congrats if you bought the last delay dip. Now we can all go home.

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Feb 23, 2025

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. Kevin Jiang – The Biggest Trade of Our Lifetime & The Next Financial Shift | The New Barbarians #008

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

  • Episode number eight of the Barbarians podcast on Valentine’s Day, February 14, 2025, featuring guest Kevin Jang, CIO of Virgo Digital Asset Management
  • Kevin’s background includes experience in trading fixed income markets and digital assets, providing valuable insights on correlations between traditional macroeconomics and digital assets
  • Discussion on recent market events such as blowout jobs numbers and higher than expected CPI, signaling a potential turning point in the markets and a shift in investor sentiment

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


2. Why Are Bond Yields Rising As Rates Are Cut?

By The Bid, The Bid

  • Fed interest rate policies have not followed traditional patterns, with long-term rates decoupling from short-term rates
  • The economic shock of Covid-19 has led to increased focus on inflation and uncertainty in the bond market
  • Fed Chairman Powell’s actions and fiscal policy responses have contributed to changing economic dynamics and interest rate outlooks

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


3. U.S. Treasuries and the Trump Effect

By Alex Ng, Fortress Hill Advisors

  • If the Fed convinces the market that it is leaving the door open to easing and sees Fed Funds reduction multi-year, then 2yr could hold onto a small discount .
  • 10yr yields will likely maintain a small to modest premium to 2yr.
  • Funding will keep 10yr Treasuriies elevated unless a slowdown in the economy is evident, but the 10yr budget bill now looks like it will produce a budget deficit in 2026-27.

4. What the Surge in Gold Tells Us About the Stock Market

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

  • The gold bull is just starting, with strong upside potential in the coming investment cycle.
  • The market is undergoing a regime shift. Gold will be useful to hedge against bond weakness in the coming cycle, which will see small-caps dominate large-caps and value dominate growth.
  • Gold mining stocks present a long-term opportunity, but may be vulnerable to a short-term setback.

5. Steno Signals #185 – Reciprocal Tariffs Are GOOD News! Here Is Why!

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything macro, where we cut through the noise and deliver contrarian takes on macroeconomics, liquidity, tradeable themes, and everything in between.
  • Reciprocal tariffs is a concept you’ll need to familiarize yourself with.
  • Despite Trump’s press conference last week being a confusing mess, lacking clarity on geographies, products, and specific tariff/VAT rates targeted in this tit-for-tat approach, the aim seems crystal clear: Trump wants a global response, and it could very well lead to globally lower tariffs and VAT rates.

6. India & Trump’s Trade War

By Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research Services

  • Buy and hold investors should be looking to buy on dip,  and we are structurally long Indian equities. 
  • However the attraction of India as a hedge against Trump’s  global trade war and China has diminished. Two reasons. 
  • First, India’s disappointing economic performance. Second, Trading Post’s expectations that the trade war will be over sooner than consensus is expecting and that a US-China trade deal will be struck.

7. The Drill – The Big Tech Showdown

By Mikkel Rosenvold, Steno Research

  • Xi’s Tech Summit: China’s Wake-Up Call: On Monday, February 17, Xi Jinping sat down with China’s tech elite in what looked like a serious course correction. Jack Ma (Alibaba) was there. So was Ren Zhengfei (Huawei). But one key figure was missing: Robin Li, Baidu’s CEO. His absence sent Baidu’s stock into a tailspin, wiping out billions in market value before state media scrambled to calm investors down.
  • Trump’s Tech Playbook: No More Playing Defense: Beijing is watching what’s happening in Washington—and it doesn’t like what it sees. The Trump administration is moving fast, rolling back regulation, cutting deals with industry giants, and pushing AI, semiconductors, and defense tech like it’s the new space race.

  • Baidu’s Stock Crash: A Symbol of China’s Problem: The Baidu selloff shows that investors are still nervous about China’s real stance on tech. It’s one thing to invite Jack Ma back into the room—it’s another to convince the market that Beijing is serious about letting private companies thrive again.


8. US vs EU Part 3: Russia/Ukraine

By Alastair Newton, Heteronomics

  • The misinterpretation of the recent Trump/Putin phone conversation by the commentariat partly explains why markets are currently ahead of the curve on Russia/Ukraine issues.
  • As long as European leaders continue to deny the state of transatlantic relations, the situation remains uncertain.
  • Given the current circumstances, investors should proceed with caution, keeping in mind the principle of ‘caveat emptor’ (buyer beware).

9. Charting India’s Path in an Evolving World

By Priyanka Kishore, Asia Decoded

  • India’s economic future continues to be hotly debated, not least because of Prime Minister Modi’s vision to make it a developed economy by 2047.
  • Unfortunately, economic trends haven’t played along. The stellar post-pandemic growth recovery has given way to an abrupt slowdown, led by falling private consumption growth.
  • We chat with eminent Indian scholar and noted journalist, Niranjan Rajadhyaksha, on the opportunities and challenges facing India.

10. India – Stay Overweight But Hedge

By Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research Services

  • Maintain structural overweight on Indian equities but hedge against rupee weakness
  • While buy and hold investors should be looking to buy on dip, the attraction of India as a hedge against Trump’s  global trade war and China has diminished. 
  • That said fundamentals – corporate and bank balance sheets – are strong, the corporate profit cycle is in upswing and the real cost of capital is within the normal range.  

Weekly Top Ten Tech Hardware and Semiconductor – Feb 16, 2025

By | Tech Hardware and Semiconductor
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.

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1. Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI Developing Alternative to Nvidia with TSMC; Hon Hai Guides Strong 1Q25E

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • OpenAI Joins the AI Chip Race — Partnering with TSMC and Broadcom to Reduce Nvidia Reliance
  • TSMC January Revenue Rises 35.9% — But Reduces 1Q25E Expectations Due to Quake Impact
  • Hon Hai Guides for 1Q25E Growth to Be Above Average and ‘Strong’

2. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Back to Extremes; ChipMOS Still High

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • TSMC: +24.7% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Spread At Current Level
  • ASE: +2.6% Premium; Wait for Closer to Parity Before Going Long Again
  • ChipMOS: +1.8% Premium; Can Continue to Consider Shorting at Current Level

3. SMIC (981.HK): Revenue Growth Decelerated in 4Q24, and Growth Momentum to Be Regained in 1Q25.

By Patrick Liao

  • SMIC’s 1Q25 guidance is for revenue to increase by 6% to 8% QoQ, and the gross margin to range from 19% to 21%.   
  • Client revenue contribution from China/Europe/US has changed from 80.8%/15.7%/3.5% in 4Q23 to 89.1%/8.9%/2% in 4Q24. These numbers indicate that SMIC is gradually becoming independent from Europe and the US. 
  • SMIC’s guidance for the year 2025 is that revenue growth is expected to be higher than the industry average in the same markets.

4. SMIC (SEHK: 00981, SSE STAR MARKET: 688981): Risky to Chase Strength

By Scott Foster, LightStream Research

  • Media reports of a sharp decline in profit linked to trade tensions are not correct. Gross, operating and total net profit all increased from 1Q to 4Q of 2024.
  • Management’s guidance for 1Q of 2025 has sales growth accelerating to 6% to 8% and the gross margin remaining relatively high at 19% to 21%. This looks reasonable.
  • But the shares are near their all-time high and too expensive to chase given the potential negative impact of President Trump’s trade policy. Take profits.

5. Global Semiconductor Sales Hit Record High Of $627.6 Billion in 2024. Where To Now?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • Global semiconductor sales reached a all time record high of $627.6 billion in 2024, an increase of 19.1% YoY, details here:
  • As anticipated, semi sales eased off in December 2024, reaching $57.0 billion, a decrease of 1.2% MoM but still up 17% YoY.
  • WSTS is forecasting 11.2% growth in 2025. Based on the planned ~40% increase in Mag7 CapEx, we think this is too low and needs to be revised upward to >15% 

6. ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): A Seasonal Decline in 1Q25, But US BIS Policy Will Help ASEH Business.

By Patrick Liao

  • 4Q24 IC ATM sales recorded NT$162bn, up 1% QoQ, GM: 16.4%, down 0.1% QoQ. EMS sales were NT$74.9bn, down 1% QoQ mainly due to seasonality. 
  • 1Q25 EMS sales will decline slightly YoY, and OPM is down 0.13ppts YoY. IC-ATM sales will decline mid-single-digits QoQ and GM is down slightly more than 1% QoQ.
  • Believes it will bring upside from new US BIS policy to ban non-listed OSAT vendors (especially China vendors) to produce US-related chip, but can’t quantify at this moment.

7. Novatek (3034.TT): The Outlook 1Q25 Is Showing Surprising Upside Due to the China Subsidy Program.

By Patrick Liao

  • US-China trade war has led to tariff uncertainties. China’s subsidy program has stimulated pre-purchasing by customers in 1Q25, resulting in increased demand for televisions, tablets, phones, and IT products. 
  • All three major product lines have shown seasonal growth. which LDDI has shown the largest growth, SoC follows closely, and SMDDI has lower growth.
  • DeepSeek will accelerate the implementation and popularization of AI applications, benefiting the company.

8. Novatek (3034.TT): Earthquake Affecting 1Q25 Outlook; Benefited by Subsidies for China’s Electronics

By Patrick Liao

  • The 1Q25 outlook is expected to see a 0-5% decline quarter-over-quarter due to the recent earthquake in southern Taiwan.  
  • Factors such as increased demand related to Apple (AAPL US)  iPhone production and subsidies for China’s electronics industry are expected to boost Novatek’s output in 1Q25.
  • US President Donald Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Taiwan’s increasing dominance in the semiconductor manufacturing sector.

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Feb 16, 2025

By | Equity Capital Markets
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Japan Eyewear (5889) – “Second IPO” Equity Offering Creates TOPIX Inclusion

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA has had Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) on his watchlist. He wrote on 6 Feb 2025 in his TOPIX Who Is Ready piece he expected Q1 inclusion.
  • He also noted that an equity offering might be required. Monday, we got a forecast revision (upward) for the year ended 31 January, an equity offering, and TOPIX inclusion.
  • The equity offering proposed is large enough one could consider it a “Second IPO”. This matters in terms of absorption and in thinking about the TOPIX Inclusion event.

2. CATL IPO Listing in Hong Kong Preview

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) is getting ready to complete its IPO on the Hong Kong exchange. CATL is expected to raise at least US$5 billion.
  • CATL maintained its 36.8% share in the global EV battery market in 2023 and January to November 2024. CATL has excellent fundamentals and improving profit margins. 
  • Major risk factors include additional tariffs by the US, recent addition to Pentagon’s blacklist, declining sales in 2024, and lower government subsidies for EVs globally. 

3. CATL A/H Listing – IPO Filing Updates

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise at least US$5bn in its H-share listing.
  • CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about updates from its most recent filings.

4. Takasago Thermal Engineering Offering (1969) – Small Start to Larger Unwind

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Takasago Thermal Engineering (1969 JP) reported Q3 earnings today. Revs up tiny yoy over 9m. OP +13%, Net +18.2%. Progression a bit behind guidance for full-year (but guidance unchanged)
  • Orders received and carried forward a record high. Margins up. DX/etc investments up. Crossholdings down but still HUGE outbound/in-bound. Goal is to shrink from 20% of net assets to 15%.
  • Today the company announced some crossholders would sell ~5% of shares out, and the company would launch a buyback for half that. Meh…

5. Daiichi Sankyo Placement – Momentum Is Weak but the Deal Is Small

By Akshat Shah, Aequitas Research

  • Mizuho Bank is looking to raise US$151m from selling some of its stake in Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP).
  • While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

6. MIXUE Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Slower Growth but Better Margins

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

  • Mixue Group is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
  • In our earlier notes, we have looked at the past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuations. In this note, we talk about updates from its recent filings.

7. Hexaware Technologies IPO – Not Cheap on Its Own, but Peers Are Trading a Lot Higher

By Clarence Chu, Aequitas Research

  • Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) is looking to raise US$1bn from its India IPO.
  • Hexaware is a global digital and technology services company with AI at its core, delivering innovative solutions that help customers in their digital transformation journey and subsequent operations.
  • In this note, we discuss its RHP updates, undertake a peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.

8. Hexaware Technologies IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd


9. Guming Holdings IPO Trading – Strong Retail Demand, with Decent Coverage on the Insti Tranche

By Clarence Chu, Aequitas Research

  • Guming Holdings (1364 HK) raised US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO. Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China.
  • Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

10. ECM Weekly (10th Feb 2025) – Haitian, Guming, LG CNS, Dr Agarwal, Ola, Brainbees, Kaynes, Whirlpool

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, neither of the two listings performed last week, while more are lining up to list across the region.
  • On the placements front, given the ongoing earnings season there weren’t any deals. We did look at lockups and other possible upcoming deals.

Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – Feb 16, 2025

By | Event-Driven and Index Rebalance
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.

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1. 7&I (3382) – In Limbo, Dipping, But Stories Coming Together

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • In the past month we have seen Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) earnings, confirmation of the York Holdings timeline, stories about Apollo, KKR, and CP Group providing MBO financing.
  • We’ve also seen Itochu confirm the financing request from the Ito family, and two American banks tapped to provide LBO financing.
  • York Holdings itself gets created this month, and a buyer decided “in spring” with a Group Buyer/Outcome possibly decided by the May AGM. Looks skewed to me.

2. Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.
  • Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.
  • The forecast deletes have underperformed the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.

3. China/HK: Passive Activity Expected Later This Month

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • There could be up to 10 adds/ 29 deletes for the China global index in February. The actual number of changes will be smaller depending on the review date chosen.
  • The flow on the forecast adds varies from US$17.5m-US$175m (0.05x-15x ADV) while the flow on the forecast deletes varies from US$14.4m-US$100.4m (0.25x-22.75x ADV).
  • Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) is a potential inclusion to multiple indices in June and there will be much larger passive flows to the stock then.

4. Australia: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • There are 6 stocks in Australia that could be deleted from global passive portfolios later this month, though the probability of deletion varies across the stocks. 
  • If deleted, passive trackers will need to sell between US$234m-330m in the stocks. Impact is high at between 7-23 days of ADV.
  • The potential deletions have underperformed the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) over nearly every time period from 1 week to 3 months. Shorts have increased on all stocks recently.

5. NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • With the review period now complete, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in March.
  • Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) and Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) are a hair’s breadth apart on market cap and only one of them could be added to the index.
  • With quantitative criteria now being used to add stocks to the F&O segment, it is possible there is no change to the index methodology to limit inclusion to F&O members.

6. Kaonavi (4435 JP) – Small HR Software Co Gets 121% Premium LBO from Carlyle

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Another Japanese smallcap takeover at a huge premium. Must be a day ending in “y.” It is a thing recently. 
  • Interestingly, this is NOT an MBO. It is an LBO. Carlyle is buying out Kaonavi Inc (4435 JP) at ¥4,380/share which is 19x book and 89x EBIT. Nice price.
  • I expect this gets done easily because the co-CEO with 28.7% and Recruit with 20.6% are putting in. There’s another easy 9.7%. One more holder and this is done.

7. S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • There could be one constituent change each for the NZX10 Index and the NZX50 Index/ NZX50 Portfolio Index in March.
  • The flows are limited but the impacts are huge, and the stocks could move ahead of the announcement of the changes.
  • A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) is a potential inclusion to the NZX10 Index, but the inflows will be completely overshadowed by the potential deletion from a global index.

8. Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Eva Air (2618 TT) Winging Its Way In

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics


9. SBI Sumishin NetBank (7163) – Oops! NTT Docomo May Not Be There As a Buyer

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • On Friday, SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) fell 12.5% in the last 90 minutes of trading. This was not due to their Q3 earnings release (out 30 January).
  • It seemed due to investor disappointment in the content of the NTT earnings call. As discussed in the forked insight, there had been speculation NTT would buy SBI Sumishin.
  • Investors had thought NTT would pay more than 28x earnings and a ¥600bn premium to book to buy the business. At 23.7x Mar25e EPS and 4.1x book, it’s still expensive.

10. Nifty IT Index Rebalance Preview: Oracle Financial Services Could Replace L&T Tech

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics


Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Feb 16, 2025

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. Steno Signals #184 – Here is the roadmap for the business cycle in 2025

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything macro, where we aim to paint a medium-term picture of liquidity, growth, and inflation—and how these factors will impact your allocation.
  • It seems The Donald has a penchant for late Friday tariff announcements, keeping markets on edge for a second consecutive Monday open.
  • This pattern is starting to take shape, though we likely need a third occurrence before drawing statistical conclusions.

2. The Economic Impact of Tariffs

By The Bid, The Bid

  • Recent announcements of tariffs by the Trump administration have caused global tensions and retaliatory measures
  • The tariffs are aimed at countries like Mexico, Canada, and China, with potential impacts on US companies and global supply chains
  • The situation is evolving, with negotiations and potential escalations to watch for in the coming days

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


3. The Art of the Trade War: US/CHINA Opening Moves

By David Mudd

  • Trump imposed smaller than anticipated tariffs on China and Xi reacted with a smaller than anticipated retaliation.  China is in a better negotiating position than Canada and Mexico.
  • DeepSeek’s announcement of its powerful and less expensive A.I. model which performed at a similar level to ChatGPT changes the dynamic of US tech domination in the A.I. field.
  • Xi has taken aim at the Magnificent 7 companies as a strategy to weaken Trump’s hand in negotiations and pressuring the US stock market. 

4. Korea Exchange Announces 8 Major Incentives for Selected Excellent Value-Up Companies

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • On 11 February, the Korea Exchange announced eight major incentives for selected excellent Corporate Value Up companies every May starting this year.
  • Some of the major incentives include preferential tax treatment and preferential inclusion in the Korea Value Up index. 
  • The Korea Exchange plans to select and announce 10 companies that will be included as Excellent Value Up Companies for the first time in May 2025.

5. Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (February 11)

By David Mudd

  • Hong Kong’s secular bull market gained after DeepSeek’s announcement ignited shares in the tech sector.
  • Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) broke out to new high after it announced its DAU for WPS exceeded 100mm.  Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK) is benefiting from the AI rally.
  • BYD (1211 HK) broke out to an all-time high after announcing it would offer its ADA service for free. The move caused Tesla (TSLA US) shares to fall.

6. The Drill – What will world peace mean for markets?

By Mikkel Rosenvold, Steno Research

  • All across the world, people are worried about Donald Trump and the uncertainty he will bring to the global order.
  • For macro investors particularly, Trump has proven a continuing headache with his weekly insistence on pushing out tariffs news or other bombshells late Friday.
  • This past week-end was not exception with Trump’s remarks on reciprocal tariffs and potential tariffs on aluminium and steel.

7. Impact of Nextrade Alternative Trading System Going Live on the Korean Stock Market on 4 March

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • Nextrade (NXT) is an alternative trading system (ATS) in Korea which will start to go live on 4 March.
  • Nextrade provided a list of 10 stocks including Lotte Shopping,  Cheil Worldwide,  Kolon Industries, LG Uplus, and S Oil that will start to trade on NXT starting 4 March. 
  • Most of these 10 stocks tend to be lower beta stocks with relatively low amounts of share volatility. These 10 stocks are up on average 2.8% YTD, underperforming KOSPI.

8. The Rise of Quant Investing in Crypto w/ Truvius CEO Connor Farley | The New Barbarians #007

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

  • The podcast is called New Barbarians and focuses on digital assets and opportunities in the market
  • The special guest, Connor Farley, is the CEO and co-founder of Truvias, an SEC registered investment advisor specializing in digital asset portfolio management
  • The current market trends include rising inflation concerns, increasing interest in gold, and the potential for Bitcoin to act as digital gold, according to the hosts and guest.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


9. Advancements in Portfolio Construction & Optimization | The New Barbarians – AI Agent Deep Dive #001

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

  • The podcast discusses advanced portfolio optimization techniques in the world of digital assets
  • Modern portfolio theory (MPT) is a key concept in investing, but newer models and techniques like Black Litterman and shrinkage estimators are being used to address limitations
  • Thematic model grouping and consolidated alpha optimization are two key approaches to portfolio construction discussed in the episode.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


10. Early Days of New Trump Administration

By Alex Ng, Fortress Hill Advisors

  • The early days of the Trump administration has seen lots of volatility around the tariffs with Canada and Mexico, but the more stable U.S. Treasury market helps provide an anchor. 
  • U.S. Treasuries have shift towards the view that the 10yr budget bill will be delayed until H2 and likely be only modestly stimulative in 2026. 
  • Combined with the Fed still leaving the door open to rate cuts this has helped avoid major directional movements. 

Weekly Top Ten Tech Hardware and Semiconductor – Feb 9, 2025

By | Tech Hardware and Semiconductor
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.

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1. AMD Q424. Share Price Sinks As Data Center GPU Growth Stalls In H125. But Why?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • Q424 revenues of $7.7. billion, up 12% QoQ, up 27% YoY and $200 million above the guided midpoint. This marked the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue
  • AMD forecasted Q125 revenues of $7.1 billion at the midpoint, up 30% YoY but down ~7% sequentially. This caused the share price to decline by ~9% in after hours trading
  • H125 is a reset period for AMD’s Data Center GPU roadmap. ROCm simply isn’t mature enough to compete effectively with NVIDIA. AMD must do better, and I believe they will.

2. Japan’s Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC?

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • Rapidus Corporation — The Japan-based semiconductor startup has emerged as a key part of the country’s ambition to reclaim a foothold in the advanced semiconductor manufacturing space.
  • How Rapidus Compares to TSMC — Rapidus’s challenge is not only in catching up with TSMC’s leading-edge process nodes but also in ensuring manufacturing maturity and cost competitiveness.
  • Maintain Structural Long rating for TSMC — Accumulate on market weakness. TSMC is partially insulated from U.S. tariff risks thanks to its position producing the most advanced chips.

3. Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Massive New 1nm GIGAFAB in Development; Can Japan Build the Next TSMC?

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • TSMC Expands 2nm & Advanced Packaging in Taiwan, Advances 1nm “GIGAFAB” in the South — Despite U.S. Tariff Risks
  • Japan’s Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC? — Maintain Structural Long for TSMC.
  • Apple Supply Chain Monitor — Why Zhen Ding and Kinsus Interconnect Could Be in a Favorable Position Relative to Apple’s AI Trajectory

4. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Rebounds to Strong Premium; ASE Near Parity

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • TSMC: +20.8% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Level vs. Relative Range; Comments from Morris Chang on Premium
  • ASE: +0.5% Premium; Good Level to Go Long the Premium
  • ChipMOS: 1.9% Premium; Can Consider Shorting Premium at Current Level

5. MediaTek (2454.TT): A Good Start in 1Q25; D9500 Launched After About 1H25; China Subsidy.

By Patrick Liao

  • The upcoming 1Q25 could be relatively flat or slightly higher than 4Q24, which represents a better start than usual due to seasonal effects.  
  • The Dimistry 8400/9400 models have been successful sellers, and a new Dimistry 9500 is expected to be launched after the first half of 2025. (link)
  • The China electronic household subsidy program, including smartphone, has resulted in over 8 million sales in shipments within 4 days on Jan 25.

6. MediaTek (2454.TT): 1Q25 Guidance Beats Consensus; Providing N2 Solution Starting from 2026.

By Patrick Liao

  • 1Q25 outlook is NT$140.8-151.8 billion, up 2-10% QoQ and up 6-14% YoY, with a GM of 47% ± 1.5%, beating consensuses. 
  • Smartphone sales are +59% from 4Q24, increasing 14% QoQ but decreasing 1% YoY, attributed to the successful launch of the D9400, with healthy demand for smartphones and subsidy stimulation from China.
  • GAI will continue to drive innovative changes in the industry, while MediaTek is evaluating the phenomenon’s effect on resource allocation. 

7. Qualcomm Q125. Firing On All Cylinders & An Ace Up Their Sleeve…

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • Q125 revenues of $11.7 billion, up 18% YoY, up 15% QoQ and marginally above the high end of the guided range. This represented the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue
  • In December, Snapdragon X Series had more than 10% share of the greater than $800 Windows laptops in U.S. retail.
  • A recent hire suggests Qualcomm has an ace up their sleeve and that they are poised to launch yet another diversification gambit

8. PC Monitor: Latest Qualcomm & Mediatek Results Show ARM-Based Chips Disrupting the PC Market

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • Growing Signs That ARM-Based Chips Are Set to Disrupt the PC Market
  • Qualcomm’s Earnings Call Insights — Snapdragon’s ARM-Based Push into PCs Successfully Taking Significant Market Share
  • Mediatek Earnings Call Highlights — Reiterates ARM-Based Entry into PC Market with AI Supercomputer CPU in Collaboration with NVIDIA